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Messages - johnm33

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 25, 2020, 11:48:22 PM »
Worth the read.
"We conclude that tidal shear stresses at the bottom and the ice‐ocean interface facilitate the transport of warmer and saltier AW to the surface layers, while the effects of tides along the Siberian shelf result in mixing of fresh river runoff waters with saltier water below the eroding halocline. Mixed layers, being much thicker due to the effects of the critical latitude on the clockwise component of tidal currents, entrain saltier waters to the surface boundary layers. Along the Siberian coast with strong river runoff, thicker boundary layers result in mixing in halocline and penetration of freshened waters to depth. Finally we find that, in this particular model, tides are responsible for ∼15% of the ice volume reduction and the presence of more salt waters at the surface in average by ∼1–1.7 PSU (Figure 14). Tides significantly modify the freshwater pathways along the Siberian shelf, resulting in saltier water along the Greenland coast. Tides affect the fresh water and heat content in the AO, with a reduction in the former by 7% in the upper 100 m"

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: January 25, 2020, 03:17:03 PM »
nanning are there large greenhouses anywhere upwind of your location, does it get worse when/after the sun shines, are they heated? You could try using one of those activated charcoal masks urban cyclists use, otherwise your prolonged depleted state of vitamin D may indicate problems with myelin sheathing and/or gut biome so maybe the supplements would be a good idea, what about B12 levels?. 

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: January 22, 2020, 12:17:59 AM »
"Central bankers and their cohorts manipulate economic data and promote the false notion of a boom before almost every major crash because they WANT to ambush the populace. They WANT to create panic, and then use it to their advantage as they rebuild and mutate the system into something unrecognizable only decades ago. Each consecutive crash contributes to the collapse of the whole, until eventually the society we once had is barely a distant memory."
usa is to empire as luca brasi was to the corleone family

Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: January 21, 2020, 10:39:00 PM »
"Any Ideas?" Powerful low on 1st 963 twixt FJL/NZ would have 'called' for water from all quarters, did PS shift?, the high over the Canadian basin side would have 'pressed' some less saline cooler water over Lomonosov, near to but not at the surface, the coarse ice underside creating a stable zone with a sheer close below, may also have halted flow at depth down St. Anna trough?

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: January 21, 2020, 10:05:41 AM » what it says in the link 9mins on the long fight against financialisation of politics took me 3 times to get it, if indeed I did.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 18, 2020, 10:24:27 PM »
"so would require a mechanism to mix with colder surface water" yes what I'm suggesting is that internal waves possibly generated by A.W. entering the basin as tidal surges, are travelling to Laptev and back towards Greenland are in turn generating orthogonal waves which are dashed against the bathymetry at depth, both north of Svalbard and at inconsistences in the gradients of the troughs and where the troughs terminate beneath Barentz. It's clearer in your 'season' thread animation though without the cloud streets suggesting extreme 'spin' I'd probably think simple wind action the likeliest explanation.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: January 17, 2020, 05:30:21 PM »
Link Taken together the cloud streets and the break aligned with the islands suggest internal waves propagated in the basins are forcing orthogonal waves south and these are disturbing the ice as they wash up the contours.
Rebound, again suggests huge amount of activity at depth, at least some of which must be A.W forced into the basin by tides judging by Hycoms salinity gif.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Rammb Slider Thread
« on: January 15, 2020, 03:02:31 PM »
"Swirl" Thats interesting, got a lat/long for it?

The rest / Re: The Media: Examples of Good AND Bad Journalism
« on: January 12, 2020, 10:30:39 AM »
Here Gordon Duff [VT] suggests the accuracy of Irans weapons gave Trump pause,
"Similarly, when missiles plowed into the “consular” facilities, really weapons warehouses, at Erbil International Airport, in the Kurdish region of Northern Iraq, the US denied any hits claiming to have shot down two of three missiles and the other a “wide miss.”

Then, as is so often the case, American military personnel billeted in the apartment buildings just south of the facility uploaded their video to YouTube.

Three missiles, thee direct hits, dramatic explosions, which the Americans seemed to enjoy immensely"

Arctic sea ice / Re: Null School Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
« on: January 05, 2020, 12:06:07 PM »
Waves, step back
anomalies have moved

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: December 23, 2019, 11:23:44 PM »
Iirc it was Gurdgieff who introduced me to the idea that the long verse narratives that were plied as a trade by professional storytellers were actually a means of transmitting huge amounts of information through the generations without the storyteller having to know what he was transmitting. I sort of got it but 'Homers secret Iliad' demonstrated that i really hadn't, my guess is that 'Homer' was the joint work of the enslaved Troian bards preserving their culture and history for posterity, so perhaps as close as anything to a western tradition of 'Druidism' we have.
Here's Ceasars take on the Druids and a critique that seems even handed to me, from the Barddas.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 22, 2019, 01:05:56 PM »
thanks bl.
Now imagine there's a surface current moving in the same direction as the wave, then think that after say 10,000years of repetitions [@6.5million] that very wave action caused the current. Didn't read this anywhere so no links but noticed whilst trying to figure out tidal action in Baffin that the currents tended to follow the tidal path, then looked around and saw that this was generally the case, so I supposed currents are residuals of tides, reinforced by inertially driven movements of waters as they move closer to/further from the equator, eventually taking on 'a life of their own'. A process in it's infancy in the Arctic.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 10:51:30 PM »
Animation with the full moon around the 9th
So what I'm suggesting is that without ice there's nothing to inhibit the lateral flow of tidal surges onto the Barentz shelf, that water having come from due south[+/-] is moving faster than the earths tangential surface speed so once on the shelf very little returns the same way, instead it flows into the basins and points east. That in turn forces deeper water to flow out through Fram, to a similar magnitude. The tidal inflow is periodic and variable but the outflow tends to be self similar and I suspect acts like a flywheel in that it will continue to pass water south despite tidal forcings. In this way Atlantification accelerates.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 10:34:32 PM »
Currents Tides compare. Brief, 5 pages

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 12:19:37 AM »
Is something new happening?
I think it's just the result of Atlantification, and that that took off with the loss of cover over Barentz. The result has been ever increasing tidal flows into the Arctic, leading to greater outflows of other water. The tidal inflows always take the path of least resistance, which remains variable and thus opaque, the outflows are at depth in Fram, Nares and through the CAA plus the surface ice lost through Fram and a little via Nares.
Previously the surface water flows were inhibited/calmed/baffled by the complex geometry of submerged ice, fixed and landlocked, now the ice moves perforce with near surface currents. Thats to say that there's a substantial difference in energy loss between inducing waves in deeper denser water than in moving ice through air. If, as i assume, the ice presents little resistance to surface currents then all the energy that would have been consumed/lost at the deeper interface with denser water now goes into moving the ice. 
Looking at the recent movent/schism by Mosaic for instance, my guess would be that tidal forces induced a flow of Atlantic waters to pass east beneath the spreading Pacific waters and drop over Lomonosov into the deep, were the ice thick enough that would have passed unseen/unimagined.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: December 14, 2019, 05:56:19 PM »
I can't help but think that had they only known about the heliospheric current sheet when founding the model for galaxies they may have elected for a more electrifying  design. That would be something like, oppositely charged plasma is ejected, in two streams, directly away from a rapidly spinning 'plasmoid' and continues on it's path contained by its self generated charge field, only slowing into apparent orbit once it coalesces and achieves a certain level of negative charge relative to it's containment 'arm'. Of course this would mean the search for dark matter has been and will remain a waste of resources.

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: December 13, 2019, 07:22:11 PM »
Labour promised their northern 'tribal' vote more of the same, well they've had that for over a generation and they're not mad or stupid enough to think more of the same is going to stop the decline in their prosperity or reduce the rate of moral decay around them. So this I guess is just a kick in the nuts for the incumbents. A couple of decent reads to embellish silkmans words, an analysis which seems even handed to me, and some thoughts from Craig Murray always worth reading.

Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 10, 2019, 05:21:59 PM »
Lightning strikes  change the time to the 8th and apply, suggests when not to visit.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: December 01, 2019, 02:25:48 PM »
A little confirmation bias here conditions would arise where miscegenation was the optimal choice.
" We present two independent models that capture the internal dynamics of Neanderthal populations―the models thus ignore, among other things, competitive interactions with AMHs―and that suggest that the disappearance of Neanderthals might have resided in the small size of their population(s) alone. Accordingly, our study substantiates the suggestion, made in passing by French [42], that “it may simply be the case that Neanderthal populations declined below their minimum viable population threshold”."

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: November 27, 2019, 11:31:33 PM »
Well thats a keeper, so much to see, i can't express how much i appreciate your work here thank you.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: November 27, 2019, 11:14:42 PM »
Hunter gatherers tend to breastfeed on demand, that generally leads to children being born about 4 years apart, so 25% is close to the max rate.
Isolated communities of all types suffer increasing loss of fertility and congenital defects from excess consanquinity, island girls deal with this by the warm reception given to passing sailors, peasants/serfs by some type of try before you buy, aristocracies by heir, spare then miscellany. I imagine when isolated groups of hominids met they happily miscegenated, some hybrids prospering some not, but since H.Sap. was/is the only one who was hard wired for grammatical language once, any hominid group had been penetrated by H.Sap. the word got passed on.  ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 25, 2019, 11:35:46 AM »
I was wondering about the effect of bathymetry on melt so looking at the sss anim. at hycom and the similarity the spreading lower salinity has to the shape of Lomonosov, 1km below and 10s of Kms away. Then noticed that one of the livelier areas is more or less where P.S. is

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 23, 2019, 10:37:52 PM »
"Up to the point where the current starts sinking, it is most definitely flowing along the surface. And I think I did say something about the continental slope and the current having sunk enough to actually follow that slope. But not before it sinks!"
I've said elsewhere that I've convinced myself that current are the residuals of tidal movements. Here there's a tidal surge flowing north between Iceland and the Hebrides it passes in the west over a shelf about 500m deep and east of the Faroes over a shelf about 1500m deep, that is how deep the current could be, but flowing south over the same shelves are some Arctic waters that have been led by bathymetry away from Denmark strait where the bulk of Arctic waters flow south, but on the western side of the mid atlantic ridge. My guess would be that the inflow here exceeds the outflow so allow maybe max depth of 800m for the northbound current. Some part of it diverts around the Voring plateau which lies below 1000m suggesting it's saline enough to drop below 800m. It's moving north and east so outpacing the Earths rotation and has to shed about 15mph. per deg. as it moves north, that kinetic energy adds to the temp. of the current. The deeper parts of the currents are never going to make the climb, in competition with the top 500m of flow, onto the Barents shelf and are forced almost due north towards SV. and again become warmer. Some fraction also makes it onto the shelf as it traverses the slope the rest piles up near the persistent anomoly before it moves either around SV to head east, across the north Greenland shelf to Nares/CAA or flows south joining the Arctic waters. Each of the flows is variable according to tidal forcings and mslps even as far as Bering. 
Someone [?] linked to a paper that found evidence that the Arctic ice cap once rested on Lomonosov, so 1km+ thick, I suspect that this was coincident with the breakdown in the thermohaline circulation in the north Atlantic. If the ice was 1km in the central arctic then it's not a stretch to think that Barents too was icebound and that tidally driven currents have very slowly Atlantified the Norwegian, Greenland and now Barents seas. The tides remain consistent but the currents are slowly increasing and penetrating ever further so very slowly then all at once seems about right.
Tangential speed
Given their rounded shape both the Voring plateau and the Barents shelf north of Norway could be ancient landslides?

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 21, 2019, 12:17:03 PM »
" We all know that the warm currents flowing northwards are surface currents."
This is where we differ, in the image below the current splits where it meets the Barents shelf close to Norway, the shelf contour here is 500m implying that that acts as a barrier suggesting the current is below that level, and i suspect flowing across the contours at much greater depths, it may even be forced up by denser waters when it rounds SV. and heads towards SZ and Laptev, thus washing up and down the shelf as it moves east still driven by the inertia it aquired further south.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 20, 2019, 10:50:36 PM »
binntho, I think where I most differ with you is that you give the impression your only considering surface and near surface waters. For me there is no resident water in the Norwegian sea, it's constantly being renewed by 'gulf stream/nad' waters from further south, so that water occupies the whole depth. Moving north/east it splits into energetic fractions the densest flowing north along the steep contours of the Barents shelf towards and around Svalbard then east along the shelfs contours and here the turbulence it creates in the waters coming off the shelf causes weak ice to melt. The energetic potential of the lightest fraction [recently at 60degN, @500mph surface speed now 68degN, @370mph] rounding Norway loses some of it's kinetic energy to heat but never enough to allow it to return by the same route, thus there's a constant but variable flow off the shelf into Nansen.
 Enough images here

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2019, 09:48:58 AM »

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: November 14, 2019, 09:27:22 AM »
maybe switch to brr?

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: November 08, 2019, 11:34:54 AM »
The withdrawal agreement is an agreement, on our part, to remain subject to the EU, it's parliament and bureaucracy until such time as a trade deal is concluded. We'll accept all new laws and charges without any say in what they might be, already our armed forces have been handed over to be controlled by Brussels, and they have contingency plans to send up to 35,000 EU troops to Syria. Philip Hammond in anticipation of his coming lucrative appointments to various boards has resigned his [leave] seat having landed us with up to 500bn euros liabilities for the EIB faied loans book, loans yet to be parcelled out, with no upside. With a similar liability in Euros for the ECB when the EU banking sector implodes, three French banks are facing ruin as is Deutsche bank so not long to wait.
Most people signed up for the EU as an open trading area with free movement, not to become a minor province in a western version of the USSR or a rust belt state in a European USAE, which seems like the plan,
Increasingly the EU is becoming a fascist state, in the older sense of that word, meaning that state and corporate power are inseperable and the states function is to create a compliant populace for corporate exploitation, rather than act as a mediator in the conflicts of interest.
Having raised the issue of leaving the Eurocrats must now prepare to administer the same treatment that Greece got, to discourage the others,
from the slog
"I think I may have been among the first internet commentators on EU gangsterism to run a piece about Tim Geithner saying to an intimate, after his return from the EU Wroclaw Summit of September 2011, “Those bastards in the EC, they are going to beat Greece to a pulp with a f**king baseball bat”. I was told of the exchange by an old contact – a New York based institutional lawyer – and went with it because the person had never been wrong about anything like that….and the record still stands.

In late 2014, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reported a confirmation of the story after reading Geithner’s memoirs. Tim was quoted as follows:

“…..the Europeans came into that meeting basically saying: ‘We’re going to teach the Greeks a lesson. They are really terrible. They lied to us. They suck and they were profligate and took advantage of the whole basic thing and we’re going to crush them.”

Bear in mind that yes the Greeks were running a deficit above the agreed limit but nothing like as large as Frances now 35% which is more than an order of magnitude above that threshold, and the options were to let Frances banks fail or reduce Greece to penury. So yes if we stay they'll batter us if we leave it'll be with added spite and venom if we accept the withdrawal agreement it'll be made easy, but that seems to be what 'our' establishment and professional political class want[?]. A clean break would be better for both.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: November 05, 2019, 03:21:58 PM »
We're clearly inside a black hole watching the energetic em storm being brought to order by integration of all it's information and the shock into conciousness that the phase shift to singularity caused. Give it another week, in outside time, and it'll all start to make sense. Though from here we should be able to see the axis of rotation if not the backs of our heads.

The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: October 31, 2019, 02:52:39 PM »
"At home in all the major powers, growing populism, nativism, and jingoism come to the fore, militating against saving the world."
At home in all our vassal states, a yearning for some democracy, putting national interests before our corporations interests, active resistance to the all pervading propaganda, militating against globalist dictats. Sorted.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: October 29, 2019, 11:10:13 AM »
Looking poleward it seems there's tidal induced flows penetrating into Nansen/Amundsen basins via St. Anna trough, forcing surface melting south of the pole around the 90E M. and I'm guessing the eastward flow and bathymetry generates the more saline surfacing water around 140-135E 85N, and the semicircle of saline water it unites with. I suspect there's a certain amount of internal wave formation going on in the basins as a consequence and that when the harmonics are just right there's a reverse gradient formed north of Greenland that facilitates the wind driven departure of it's resident ice. When that wave complex moves back into the deep it'll draw more Atlantic water in.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2019, 10:48:16 PM »
tzu "comments"
My 2c, the slowing of the Gulf stream/N.Atlantic drift imho is caused by mixing with arctic waters which are inert and hold fast to the American mainland, that inertia is reflected in the size of the cold blob which is the G.S./Arctic water mixed to latitudinal equilibrium. The cold blob forces the G.S. south, it's relative inertia means it spends more time further south, travels further, gets warmer, more saline and arrives later. The loss of ice cover in Barentz has allowed more Atlantic water to force it's way into the Arctic over that shelf, in turn this has led to an [unconfirmed] steady increase in flow at depth though Fram. In turn this acts a little like a flywheel and if more water is leaving here more must flow in, according to 'current' circumstances. Generally this means increased inflow from the Atlantic either side of Svalbard or from the Pacific influenced by tides and barometric pressure, so extremely variable on any day. Every tidal cycle can add a little more power to the 'flywheel', and given the activity at Humbolt it seems something similar is evolving in Nares.

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: October 19, 2019, 03:36:45 PM »
This speaks for itself

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

This is ‘May Mk2’ – the EU’s latest colonisation treaty for the UK

Prepared by Brexit Facts4EU.Org with advice from a Brussels-based barrister

Legend: ‘WA’ = Withdrawal Agreement, ‘PD’ = Political Declaration

1. Parliament will not be sovereign - UK still to be governed by existing and new laws of the ECJ – a foreign court – and with no say over these laws. [WA articles 4, 87, 89 and 127, PD para 131]

2. Demands payment of a sum to be decided by the EU - Minimum £39 billion but this is likely to increase and the EU decides the final sum. This must be paid BEFORE any trade deal is agreed. [WA articles 138-144, and 152-155]

3. No trade deal with EU – Not included as this is just a divorce treaty. Any EU trade deal must ensure “a level playing field for open and fair competition” and “deep regulatory and customs cooperation”. This will make it difficult for the UK to reduce non-tariff barriers in trade deals with USA, Australia, China, etc. [PD paras 17 & 21]

4. Prevents independent tax policy - Political Declaration still obliges UK to adopt a future relationship which will impose EU State Aid rules and “relevant tax matters” on the UK. EU specifically intends to curb UK’s ability to have “harmful tax practices”. Withdrawal Treaty also applies EU law to UK during transition period - allowing EU to sue UK, including infringement proceedings for as yet unidentified breaches of State Aid rules and billions in VAT on commodity derivative transactions dating back to 1970s. [PD para 77, WA articles 86, 93, 127].

5. Restricts independent foreign policy - UK to be bound by international agreements concluded by the EU despite having no influence in their negotiation during the transition period and must “refrain, during the transition period, from any action... which is likely to be prejudicial” to the interests of the EU. [Articles 129(3) and (6)].

6. Prevents independent military action – UK permanently stopped from taking “any action likely to conflict with or impede” EU’s foreign policies. Critical parts of section on foreign policy and security are not reciprocal, eg future relationship will not “prejudice the decision-making autonomy of the EU” but no such language for UK – only permitted to “maintain the right to determine how [to respond] to any invitation to participate in operations or missions”. Also, parties “agree to consider” security collaboration in European Defence Agency, European Defence Fund, and PESCO “to the extent possible under [EU law]” which is prescriptive (not permissive) obligation. Despite paying for European Defence Agency during transition, British troops in EU battlegroups will not be led by British staff officers. [WA articles 129(6-7) and 156-157, PD paras 99, 102(c)]

7. Controls UK fishing – Common Fisheries Policy continues in UK waters during transition (which can be extended) but UK will have no say in implementation or enforcement. After transition, Political Declaration requires “cooperation on... regulation of fisheries, in a non-discriminatory manner” - code for continuing current arrangements for EU access to UK waters. Any trade deal to “ensure service providers and investors are treated in a non-discriminatory manner, including with regard to establishment” - prevents UK protecting quotas from EU purchase. [PD paras 29 and 72]

8. Replaces one EU Commission with another - New body established with “powers equivalent to those of the European Commission”. UK must accept exclusive jurisdiction of Arbitration Panel and judgments of ECJ. Grants EU officials criminal immunity and exemption from UK tax. Imposes gagging order on UK which must keep all EU information confidential but EU can use UK information as it sees fit. [WA articles 74, 101, 104-5, 106-116, 159, 168, 174]

9. Leaves UK with €500bn liabilities from EU Investment Bank but no profits - No rights to past and future profits made from UK investment in EIB, no rights to UK share of assets of EIB, yet UK remaining liable for risk of up to €500bn of guarantees. UK must let EU bid for UK public projects at least during transition. [WA articles 34, 75-78, 127, 143, 147, 150].

10. EU colonisation - makes UK bystander in laws that govern it - UK permitted to send civil servant to Brussels to observe EU passing laws designed to disadvantage UK economy during transition which might last many years. EU could regulate London’s huge foreign exchange markets, impose financial transaction tax that would be collected at UK expense by HMRC but sent to foreign governments. [WA article 34]
my understanding is that 2 is an annual payment
This may be called a withdrawal agreement that has the full support of both the EU and UK bureaucrats but clearly the shafting will continue in or out without a so called hard brexit. I think the current plan is a referendum on this or remain

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: October 15, 2019, 08:07:33 PM »
I'm no monarchist but the queen being in favour of the EU is like a turkey looking forward to christmas.
From John Ward
"A research outfit in London informs me that, since late April this year – although those undecided/unaligned on Brexit remain constant at around 12% – the continuing trend is for so-called ‘mild Remainers’ to switch to Leave, and ‘mild Leavers’ to drift closer to a clean Brexit with no strings. The single biggest factors behind their decision are first, MPs reneging on ‘respect Leave’ promises; and second, a strongly negative attitude to perceived Brussels duplicity."
"I was in conversation with a retired diplomat last week who painted a very dismal picture. “Nothing will change,” he opined, “those too ghastly to face The People will remain above the marionette threatre, pulling the strings of different puppets”. He was, as they say, “retired early” so I suppose he ought to know." So casualties are inevitable Democracy the first, as poor as it was.
 read it all

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: October 07, 2019, 01:15:25 PM »
Capitalism is the abandoment of societal ethics, and embracing whatever market structures the creators of money decide is good for them. Without ethics society moves inexorably towards the kind of heirarchical structure the 'social' insects have gamed, and the creators of money will be at the center. 
Here we have something close to a miracle an economist who understands banks [perhaps he harbours ambitions to drive a cab] and outlines the coming iteration of financial control.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 02:19:21 AM »
Great explanation John, but why this persistence? A decadal swing in the location of these vortices or forcing due to sea ice changes?
Well I'm only guessing but it seems that as Atl. waters penetrate deeper into the Arctic more Arctic waters are forced out, whether on the surface or close to the deepest level. The loss of Barentz sea ice seems to be a key factor, so I assume the complex surface it once presented to tidal currents acted as a baffle, this gone allows a smoother inflow which in turn accelerates penetration. I've said elsewhere that it seems that currents are residuals of tidal flows and that currents on the scale we're examining appear to flow like slime bodies  So with more Atl. waters induced north in the general run of things only to be frustrated in their passage by particular circumstances we see persitent anomolies that wax and wane, related [i think] to the forcing of more variable surface outflows.
This season I expected a much earlier breakthrough of surface waters in the CAA, and more surface flow through Fram neither of which occured so perhaps there's been a significant increase in outflow  at depth through Fram forced by Atl. water ingress and in turn forcing Atl. waters ingress - evening out yet gently accelerating tidal fluctuations.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 03:14:31 PM »
I'm thinking there are several 'strings' of Atl. water flowing according to the bathymetry of the Greenland/Norwegian seas. The northernmost following the shelf where Barents begins. These currents are pressed to move north into the Arctic proper for this they have to climb over the deep outflowing current, as they climb their inherent spin [they've been approaching the axis of rotation for some time] forces them into vortices where the various fractions sort themselves out but they also interefere with one another, so some excess heat will be released but perhaps the sensors are also detecting the turbulence of the interefering vortices.

Nice catch B-l thanks, looking forward to Padmans work from this mission.

  Great stuff Espen thank you. Wow just wow covers it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 19, 2019, 10:58:24 AM »
However a wave is generated it is a visible sign of a pressure wave passing through the water. So in 20m of water that [1m?]wave may have enough energy to mix recently melted water inhibiting refreeze. That same pressure wave moving into 200m deep water will barely cause a [10cm?] ripple. On the shelves once a certain, differing, threshold of melt has passed wave action will mix the water around the ice, over the deep ocean the meltwater will move to the surface or as close as it can get thus allowing the ice to 'repair' itself with easy to freeze freshwater.
 Incoming Atlantic waters are already denser, more saline, than the surface waters of the Arctic, which is why their currents follow the channels into Barentz, and why they fall into the Eurasian basin.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 18, 2019, 05:02:58 PM »
As kindly suggested I apply to those of you who 'get it' here: Why should there be any connection between ocean depth and surface ice. The assumption that deep water in the CAB should somehow protect the ice keeps popping up, but why should that be the case?
Whereas the shelves will support wave action once a pressure waves passes the edge of the shelf it dissipates into water which can be orders of magnitude deeper.

Detail from courtesy polarview

Looking at the north side of the southern calving front, the overturning wave has collapsed. Look at AH post third from top above.

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: September 16, 2019, 02:36:23 PM »
Some of the horrors of the 'withdrawal agreement' listed below courtesy of the spectator. For me the worst of it is that despite denials from both 'our' and EU politicians during the referendum campaign an EU army is being formed who's only two rationales are suppression of dissent within, that is occupation of any dissenting regimes with 'foriegn' troops and EU war with Russia which would prove hard to bring about with independant soveriegn Eurpoean governments. ):

1. May says her deal means the UK leaves the EU next March. The Withdrawal Agreement makes a mockery of this. “All references to Member States and competent authorities of Member States…shall be read as including the United Kingdom.” (Art 6).
2. Not quite what most people understand by Brexit. It goes on to spell out that the UK will be in the EU but without any MEPs, a commissioner or ECJ judges. We are effectively a Member State, but we are excused – or, more accurately, excluded – from attending summits. (Article 7)
3. The European Court of Justice is decreed to be our highest court, governing the entire Agreement – Art. 4. stipulates that both citizens and resident companies can use it. Art 4.2 orders our courts to recognise this. “If the European Commission considers that the United Kingdom has failed to fulfil an obligation under the Treaties or under Part Four of this Agreement before the end of the transition period, the European Commission may, within 4 years after the end of the transition period, bring the matter before the Court of Justice of the European Union”. (Art. 87)
4. The jurisdiction of the ECJ will last until eight years after the end of the transition period. (Article 158).
5. The UK will still be bound by any future changes to EU law in which it will have no say, not to mention having to comply with current law. (Article 6(2))
6. Any disputes under the Agreement will be decided by EU law only – one of the most dangerous provisions. (Article 168).
7. This cuts the UK off from International Law, something we’d never do with any foreign body. Arbitration will be governed by the existing procedural rules of the EU law – this is not arbitration as we would commonly understand it (i.e. between two independent parties). (Article 174)
8. “UNDERLINING that this Agreement is founded on an overall balance of benefits, rights and obligations for the Union and the United Kingdom” No, it should be based upon the binding legal obligations upon the EU contained within Article 50. It is wrong to suggest otherwise.
9. The tampon tax clause: We obey EU laws on VAT, with no chance of losing the tampon tax even if we agree a better deal in December 2020 because we hereby agree to obey other EU VAT rules for **five years** after the transition period. Current EU rules prohibit 0-rated VAT on products (like tampons) that did not have such exemptions before the country joined the EU.
10. Several problems with the EU’s definitions: “Union law” is too widely defined and “United Kingdom national” is defined by the Lisbon Treaty: we should given away our right to define our citizens. The “goods” and the term “services” we are promised the deal are not defined – or, rather, will be defined however the EU wishes them to be. Thus far, this a non-defined term so far. This agreement fails to define it.
11. The Mandelson Pension Clause: The UK must promise never to tax former EU officials based here – such as Peter Mandelson or Neil Kinnock – on their E.U. pensions, or tax any current Brussels bureaucrats on their salaries. The EU and its employees are to be immune to our tax laws. (Article 104)
12. Furthermore, the UK agrees not to prosecute EU employees who are, or who might be deemed in future, criminals (Art.101)
13. The GDPR clause. The General Data Protection Regulation – the EU’s stupidest law ever? – is to be bound into UK law (Articles 71 to 73). There had been an expectation in some quarters that the UK could get out of it.
14. The UK establishes a ‘Joint Committee’ with EU representatives to guarantee ‘the implementation and application of this Agreement’. This does not sound like a withdrawal agreement – if it was, why would it need to be subject to continued monitoring? (Article 164).
15. This Joint Committee will have subcommittees with jurisdiction over: (a) citizens’ rights; (b) “other separation provisions”; (c) Ireland/Northern Ireland; (d) Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus; (e) Gibraltar; and (f) financial provisions. (Article 165)
16. The Lifetime clause: the agreement will last as long as the country’s youngest baby lives. “the persons covered by this Part shall enjoy the rights provided for in the relevant Titles of this Part for their lifetime”. (Article 39).
17. The UK is shut out of all EU networks and databases for security – yet no such provision exists to shut the EU out of ours. (Article 8)
18. The UK will tied to EU foreign policy, “bound by the obligations stemming from the international agreements concluded by the Union” but unable to influence such decisions. (Article 124)
19. All EU citizens must be given permanent right of residence after five years – but what counts as residence? This will be decided by the EU, rather than UK rules. (Articles 15-16)
20. Britain is granted the power to send a civil servant to Brussels to watch them pass stupid laws which will hurt our economy. (Article 34)
21. The UK agrees to spend taxpayers’ money telling everyone how wonderful the agreement is. (Article 37)
22. Art 40 defines Goods. It seems to includes Services and Agriculture. We may come to discover that actually ‘goods’ means everything.
23. Articles 40-49 practically mandate the UK’s ongoing membership of the Customs Union in all but name.
24. The UK will be charged to receive the data/information we need in order to comply with EU law. (Article 50). The EU will continue to set rules for UK intellectual property law (Article 54 to 61). The UK will effectively be bound by a non-disclosure agreement swearing us to secrecy regarding any EU developments we have paid to be part. This is not mutual. The EU is not bound by such measures. (Article 74)
25. The UK is bound by EU rules on procurement rules – which effectively forbids us from seeking better deals elsewhere. (Articles 75 to 78)
26. We give up all rights to any data the EU made with our money (Art. 103)
27. The EU decide capital projects (too broadly defined) the UK is liable for. (Art. 144)
28. The UK is bound by EU state aid laws until future agreement – even in the event of an agreement, this must wait four years to be valid. (Article 93)
29. Similar advantages and immunities are extended to all former MEPs and to former EU official more generally. (Articles 106-116)
30. The UK is forbidden from revealing anything the EU told us or tells us about the finer points of deal and its operation. (Article 105).
31. Any powers the UK parliament might have had to mitigate EU law are officially removed. (Article 128)
32. The UK shall be liable for any “outstanding commitments” after 2022 (Article 142(2) expressly mentions pensions, which gives us an idea as to who probably negotiated this). The amount owed will be calculated by the EU. (Articles 140-142)
33. The UK will be liable for future EU lending. As anyone familiar with the EU’s financials knows, this is not good. (Article143)
34. The UK will remain liable for capital projects approved by the European Investment Bank. (Article 150).
35. The UK will remain a ‘party’ (i.e. cough up money) for the European Development Fund. (Articles 152-154)
36. And the EU continues to calculate how much money the UK should pay it. So thank goodness Brussels does not have any accountancy issues.
37. The UK will remain bound (i.e coughing up money) to the European Union Emergency Trust Fund – which deals with irregular migration (i.e. refugees) and displaced persons heading to Europe. (Article 155)
38. The agreement will be policed by ‘the Authority’ – a new UK-based body with ‘powers equivalent to those of the European Commission’. (Article 159)
39. The EU admits, in Art. 184, that it is in breach of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which oblige it to “conclude an agreement” of the terms of UK leaving the EU. We must now, it seems, “negotiate expeditiously the agreements governing their future relationship.” And if the EU does not? We settle down to this Agreement.
40. And, of course, the UK will agree to pay £40bn to receive all of these ‘privileges’. (Article 138)

Todays polarview and 3 days til' the full moon

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: September 09, 2019, 12:02:49 PM »
Was there, or was there not, a BOE in the mid-Holocene?
Perhaps you should look up Patricia Sutherlands work and form a view.

The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: September 07, 2019, 12:34:16 PM »
There was a documentary featuring Chomsky on RT this week that spelled out the corporate takeover of the political process.
The curious thing about being the issuer of the means of exchange, whether as a banker within a nation or a nation in the world is that the cost of goods is the cost of fiat 'money' creation thus a 100 or 1000 dollar bill costing about 12c can be issued freely and provide for all a societies needs without any need for work, organising a prosperous and fulfilled society with that boon should be a piece of cake. Instead the rich waste vast and ever increasing resources to control, suppress and stick it to the poor, worldwide, go figure?

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: September 07, 2019, 11:57:37 AM »
" the earth's purpose is complete"
Until the sun sends us the bill everything will be ok.
Plus a little confimation bias, storms [lows] centered on the pole accelerate ice/surface water, relative to the rotating frame, which must then move south, coinciding with tidal forcing of Atl. waters through to St. Anna trough and thus across to Lomonosov would cause serious upwelling of warm waters, but even this late in the season not enough to cause more than temporary melt, that may change.

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