Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - RikW

Pages: [1] 2 3 4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 04:07:47 PM »
not; since sea-ice will have almost no effect on the balance distribution :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January 2020)
« on: January 06, 2020, 04:17:19 PM »
To me, it appears reasonable stable for the last 8/9 years; Curious why that is the case, is it coincidence? A trend? Mechanics we don't understand yet (okay, that one is at least true ;) )

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 26, 2019, 04:19:26 PM »
The problem with the pigs isn't only the CO2, but also nitrogen which pollutes our (human-planned...) nature. Almost all pigs produced in those large farms are for the export and probably also with european subsidy. So f.e. China buys our cheaps pork meat, we have the pollution and pay for it also by subsidy's.

The heating should be done by heat pumps. I think the idea is that heat pumps are more efficient than burning fossil fuels, because you also need better isolation. And burning fossil fuels in large plants is most of the time more efficient than doing it at home.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 22, 2019, 10:34:00 AM »
well, it's somewhere funny to see that video of them breaking the glass ;)

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: November 21, 2019, 10:44:54 AM »
Well, in the Netherlands we are going off-grid with gas.

If I remember correctly since a couple of years it isn't obligated anymore when building a new houses to connect it to the gas-grid and in 2050 the gas-grid should be gone and everything should be done electric. So the gas network will be written off in 30 years.

Though it's weird our neighbours (germany f.e.) are transition to gas - which is better than what they currently have, but still weird.

We have too much people for the area of land we have/ are too efficient in using things/ are too rich compared to other countries thus our emissions are relative high, even though we are also relative clean. And the focus is too much on nations and not on continents/globally.

When we close steel factories in IJmuiden and the coal-power-plants, our emissions drop significant, but global emissions will probably be rise, because we need to buy our energy elsewhere and there still is demand for steel.

So I want us to give the good example and take action, but it shouldn't make the global situation worse. So which is the lesser evil to choose from? Do nothing or do something, but increase global emissions...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 20, 2019, 07:54:26 PM »
ID.3 can be a real threat, same range, lower price than model 3.
Nope less range less efficient and slower .
Tesla Model 3 Long Range Dual Motor
Battery Electric Vehicle - 75 kWh*
0 - 100 4.6 sec
Top Speed233 km/h
Range475 km
Efficiency15.6 kWh
Fastcharge990 km/h

Volkswagen ID.3 Long Range (from 2020)
Battery Electric Vehicle - 82 kWh*
0 - 100*5.5 sec
Top Speed*180 km/h
Range*450 km
Efficiency*17.1 kWh
Fastcharge*550 km/h

Note the * next to VW is because that is their claim not a tested result .
VW you know those guys who faked their emissions testing .
I don't trust them... you might

Tesla killers is a silly concept.
All competitive electric cars are ICE killers, There is plenty of room for Tesla and others in the market place.

I don't see them as Tesla killer, but I see them as a potential risk for Tesla. They have factories available to scale up production and they have knowledge how to build a car.
Currently, Tesla is far beyond the competition on important factors. I think Price, Range and charging speed are most important factors, with the latter getting less important if range increases. And I think traditional auto makers can scale up their production faster than Tesla can.

A standard Tesla 3 costs around 49k in the Netherlands, a long range 59k, without any options.
And ID.3 is said to cost 30k for the standard version and 40k for the longer range version. That is a huge difference.

Yeah, on top speed and acceleration, Tesla is much better. But how often do you really need that? Only in Germany, which is kind of funny, you have advantage of a higher top speed

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 20, 2019, 11:17:47 AM »
I think the greatest short-term threat to electrification of our car fleet is Tesla going bankrupt, but if Tesla doesn't go bankrupt in a year or so, that threat is gone, because other car-makers are far enough ramping up there line-up/models.

If BMW (i4) and VW (ID.3/ID.4) can fullfill their promisses, I see more danger for Tesla, but less for electrification. ID.3 can be a real threat, same range, lower price than model 3.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 18, 2019, 01:28:03 PM »
Finally a century increase, first of this melting season;

In the last 30 years (1990-2019) only in 1996 the first century increase was later, november 26th, but 1996 also had the highest minimum in the last 3 decades.

Another maybe interesting fact, since minimum the gain was 1.271.299; When we check other years, the gain from minimum was till october 17th was on average 2.1M. (90's: 2.18, 00's 2.09, 10's 2.07). That it is the lowest gain from minimum till october 17th in the last 30 years; 2018 2nd in that ranking, 2007 3rd;

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: September 19, 2019, 09:00:39 AM »
with only 1 day after minimum with a not-so-large increase, I wouldn't call minimum yet personally. Yeah, it's possible, but we are in a fluctuating period. A drop today isn't unlikely

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 02, 2019, 10:14:39 PM »

I think these predictions get updated automatically and if I understanding correctly most of them predict Dorian to reach Nova Scotia in 5/6 days while still being near a cat1/ cat2 hurricane?

That is rare, isn’t it?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 09:55:01 AM »
My first hope is it never happens because I believe it will be catastrophic on the short (first 3 years after it), medium and long term;

My 2nd hope is that if it happens in the near future it will be because of an outlier which should happen soon to still be an outlier, will create havoc on the weather in the months after that and will make sure climate change is happening fast, while being an outlier gives humanity still the chance to change. And I hope the largest impact of it happening (even though I live there) are in North America and Europe, because we are the main culprit of climate change. And the evil part of me hopes it will be mostly in the USA in Republican territory...

My 3rd hope is that I won't see it happen in the near future and me and my kids won't suffer from the impact

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 21, 2019, 09:59:14 AM »
Yeah, the difference between 2012 en 2019 is small and a huge cap with all other years; Based on this I expect that area/extent numbers will continue to show at least average drops. Low Volume should become visible in extent/area I'd say

difficult one, if I should put a number on it it would be around 3.65/3.70 but I fear chances for getting lower than that are high, seeing weather forecast and state of ice. So I chose 3.25-3.75

Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 07, 2019, 08:58:30 AM »
I don't think there is causality; it's our nature as humans to see patterns everywhere, even when there isn't any significant link

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: August 06, 2019, 10:50:32 AM »
Yeah, though I guess volume won't reach zero much earlier than extent ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 01, 2019, 04:56:55 PM »
I've just looked at the recent graphs/numbers in the data topic, and the difference between the total ice pack (record low) and the CAB (relative high compared to the last 10 year) is striking.

A quick glance on worldview tells me the ice looks fragile/almost shattered in some regions, probably much worse than earlier years, is just just dispersion what keeps the Area numbers that high?

Though als layman I'd say more dispersion while having the same amount of ice will have the area numbers the same, only extent numbers higher; Or in other words, I'd say that dispersion won't have such a striking distortion on area numbers

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 25, 2019, 03:06:30 PM »
It's confirmed it's a broken sensor, it's in the province Gelderland and we still have broken the old record (yesterday's...) with 39.7 and I think temperatures can still rise next hours, so still possible to reach 40degree+

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 24, 2019, 04:42:03 PM »
I found a calculator online:

I doubt if it is really wet bulb temperature, I did 2 calculations based on dutch weatherstations:

It feels too high considering the relative humidity which isn't that high

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 09:25:02 AM »
The problem is that we don't have good models to have reliable predictions when a BoE will happen and what the effect of a BoE will be.

Will there be feedback mechanism kicking in, 'restoring' the ice?


When on a human time-scale; IPCC says when we stick to 1.5 degree, it will be once in a 100 years. Seeing the trend, I've got problems to believe them. I've also seen studies that say it will happen earlier. And as you can see in this thread people and researches tend to differ on the effects of a BoE on the climate. I've said 3 options that all have papers supporting them.

That fact gives me the impression that we, as humanity, have lot's of trouble with making reliable models concering BoE

I think BoE in the discussion in the last couple of days isn't <1M km2 ice, but the moment air temperature isn't limited by the ice anymore.
Dropping below 1M km2 will be just another sad milestone on the path of climate change/global warming, but I doubt anyone here believes that will trigger almost instant destruction/doom.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: July 23, 2019, 02:03:05 PM »
This would be an excellent time to flee to a cooler climate for a vacation. People without access to a reliable AC will die in 40C @ 35% humidity.


airco @work broke couple of weeks ago and today isn't extremely hot yet :(

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 23, 2019, 09:45:23 AM »
The problem is that we don't have good models to have reliable predictions when a BoE will happen and what the effect of a BoE will be.

Will there be feedback mechanism kicking in, 'restoring' the ice? Giving us a couple of extra years to act?
Will there be nothing special happening and will global warming just continue?
Will our 3-cell-atmospheric system collapse, possibly creating unstable/unpredictable weather and a fast changing climate?

We can only make educated guesses, because we don't know enough yet.

I personally think it all depends on how early in the season a BoE is happening. Currently the ice keeps the air temperature low, because most energy goes into melting the ice. When you check the temperature graphs, you can see there isn't a change in the summer temperature; If there is no ice/snow left, that limitation is gone; And the 3-cell system is there because of the temperature difference between the tropics and the arctic. When arctic temperature rises enough, i can imagine that system to collapse.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 17, 2019, 02:13:47 PM »
I guess shareholders are waiting for Q2 numbers

Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: July 16, 2019, 12:26:34 PM »
It's good to see that in the Netherland we have a relative low temperature change in those scenario's;

At least we drown in 'normal' conditions...

Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: July 16, 2019, 09:15:17 AM »
I don't think a railgun would give an enjoyable ride ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 11, 2019, 03:41:20 PM »
Yeah, I don't expect massive climate change (except those we have now) when we hit BOE, because that will likely happen at the end of august/beginning of september thus fast refreeze. But unless there are some nice feedback mechanisms after going blue, I'd guess BOE will happen in year BOE+1 a couple of days/weeks earlier, so much more heating of the arctic ocean, refreeze will hapen weeks/months later and in BOE+2 I'd imagine having BOE for mid july-november. And that will be too long without our arctic refrigerator and I won't be suprised if the following happens

BOE-year: "aaaah, blue ocean" "oh, nothing happens, it just refreezes"
BOE-year+1: "oh, again blue ocean" and we will have some weird weather, but those are just 'incidents'
BOE-year+2: "that's weird, 3rd BOE in a row and too early" and weather patterns become unpredictable in northern hemisphere with lots of extreme weather and reality finally sinks in

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 11, 2019, 03:26:04 PM »
it's kind of frightening seeing parts of the arctic going *poof* in the last couple of days/weeks especially seeing the state of the ice and imagining more ice going *poof*

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 10, 2019, 10:04:40 AM »
Well, it all depends on how fast temperature keeps rising;

What I learnt from reading this forum and other online sources last years blue arctic ocean is almost inevitable. Even if we stop all CO2 emissions today

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: July 09, 2019, 08:45:37 AM »
Lets guess at the loss Tesla will post in Q2!

I'm going with $350-$400M.

I'm not using any math from figures specific to the quarter, just following the long term trend of mini profits with a new model, followed by ebb back to flamethrower-to-cash land.

135k in 26 weeks is 5.2k/week, isn't it? ;)

Q1 4.8k/week on average
Q2 5.6k/week on average

I think they have demand issues with model S/X, for Model 3 it's more difficult to say.
I think they'll see a surge in demand in the Netherlands, because fiscal rules change again and most electric cars have too long delivery times; It shows how strange the market is, demand is mostly driven by fiscal rules...

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« on: July 08, 2019, 10:21:08 AM »
Nice graphs again here :)

If i read the graph correctly the arctic loses around 300k M3 volume a year? So reaching zero volume in september around the end of next decade is almost inevitable. (twice around 4.5M in the last couple of years) And with an outlier even earlier

I'd say we get below 4.5 for sure, excluding a miracle (supervolcanoe exploding en filling the air with stuff, a nuclear war starting a nuclear winter etc.), seeing the state of the ice. I think we will drop below 4M m2 for the 2nd time ever with average melting conditions, unless we get very unfavourable melting conditions next weeks/months.

But if we have a perfect GAC early/mid august with favorable melt conditions for the next couple of weeks, ice will crash and in that case I fear the 2012 record will be smashed.

Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: July 05, 2019, 10:58:41 AM »
yeah, it's also on the dutch news:

just like we said a couple of months ago in one of these topics, if everyone on earth plants 1 tree every day for 2 years (okay, that's more like 4B trees)

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: July 04, 2019, 09:04:00 AM »
When looking at worldview I don't think it is looking good for the ice, especially because I doubt there will be a lot of import of ice from the arctic into the CAA, i've never seen such a large ice-free gap between the CAA and the arctic ocean early july, so when the ice is gone in the CAA it is really gone, there will be almost no import of ice.

I voted 16-30 july when it can be passed and I fear almost all routes are possible in a couple of weeks.

I even more fear for the next melting season. Imagine the CAA being 90%+ ice-free for more than a month with most ice non-glaciers/ice-caps on the islands almost gone for several weeks with almost no import of older ice.

I hope I'm too pessimistic

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 27, 2019, 10:16:50 AM »
I find it extremely unlikely that heat from vegetation fires in Siberia can have any measurable effect on melting in the Arctic. If anybody wants to make such claims, year after year, perhaps they could get the calorific calculations done first?

If I remember correctly the heat isn't the problem, but the ash falling on the ice

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 21, 2019, 05:06:27 PM »
Hi Grixm!

It's not just the temps though!

In the UK we already have storm forecasts out for the period?

Seeing as NW Europe ( from Ireland through to east Germany and the North of Italy) is ground zero for funnel cloud formation I have always worried that 'steeping up' the energy in the atmosphere will allow more and more of the funnels to touch down?

Tornados are impossible to see in the Paleo record so we just do not know if in past epochs where temps were similar we did see such in our region?

Even though most structures are solid brick/concrete there is still a large potential for injury/loss of life from glass/debris should an F3 ,or above?, hit major population areas?

Anyhow, apart from flooding , giant hail and lightning strikes I will be looking out for reports of funnel cloud/tornado events.

Already I've heard one agency moot issuing a tornado warning for Wiltshire on Tuesday!!!

Time alone will tell the tale!

We maybe/probably had 3 or 4 tornadoes hit the netherlands 2 weeks ago (missed the house of my parents in law by a ~500m's). Damage mostly trees, but more than the normal 'tornadoes' we have in the Netherlands

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 21, 2019, 04:58:54 PM »
Not “annual profit,” but the four most recent quarters.

WTF. Has your brain gone FSD? The 4 most recents Qs' net income = $969M LOSS

Yeah, but 2nd quarter 2018 'disappears' in 10 days time and Q2 2019 appears. If they get a positive result of 252 or higher, they have a 4-quarter-period profit. And of course that's highly unlikely, but not as impossible as your number suggests.

And I think you are at least safe to post for the next 9 months, because Q1 2019 was bad.

Policy and solutions / Re: Direct Air Capture (of Carbon Dioxide)
« on: June 20, 2019, 09:45:14 AM »
Well, theoretically he is probably correct.

Just calculate the electricity (or energy?) consumption in the USA.
Calculate how many energy a solar panel generates
Divide et voila!

And same for the battery-pack required. The math isn't that hard i guess and such a map gives a good impression what part of the USA is required to power the whole of the USA;

And putting a square next to it with solar-panel-available roofs would also be good idea

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 20, 2019, 09:16:12 AM »

If demand stays high, Tesla will become profitable
If demand collapses, they will go broke

And predicting demand is difficult. Their cars are more expensive to buy than similar ICE-cars and have probably less gross margin than ICE-manufacturers.
Though it's very likely that total costs (including maintenance, fuel, maybe insurance?) of a model 3 is on par/ even lower than an ICE-car.

If that turns out to be true on the longer term and people start to believe it, demand will probably rise.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 14, 2019, 11:44:30 AM »
I'd say it's because of ice breaking up in smaller floes and spreading increases so more parts of the grid that have at least 15% ice cover, thus higher extent.

At the short time that creates a gap between extent and area, because there are more parts with some ice while in the longer term it will be disastrous for the ice, many small parts is more open sea, so more heat that can be trapped and more ice that is probably easy to melt, because of the smaller parts.

Do I guess we will see a cliff in extent in the near future because those small parts will probably disappear

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise Projections and Maps
« on: June 14, 2019, 09:10:27 AM »
yeah, but not the exact rise ;)

If medical science will have some breakthrough and I'll never move again, I'll have a coastal home in 1-3 centuries seeing the map of the netherlands

If I voted today I'd still vote for 1-7 I think;

I guess it will be the 7th or the 8th it will be 'free'

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 21, 2019, 02:49:37 PM »
I was just checking beaufort sea on NASA Worldview, based on the may 20th images I'd say it's in really bad condition. Checking the 20th of May in the last 10 years, 2016 was the worst and 2019 isn't much better.

Worldview link:,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2019-05-20-T00%3A00%3A00Z&z=3&v=-2786514.8516380293,-1030998.8688008119,1145645.1483619707,1035433.1311991881&ab=off&as=2017-04-15&ae=2017-05-07&av=3&al=true

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: May 13, 2019, 04:02:23 PM »
well, 'just' plant more trees;

if every 'worker' in the usa/ europe plants 1 tree per day we have reforested the world in 2 years.

Just imagine every adult you know planting a tree daily for 2 years in a row...

Consequences / Re: World of 2030
« on: April 29, 2019, 02:27:11 PM »
I won't be surprised if Michael Hauber is mostly correct. I think average numbers will be higher then he says, more around 0.3-0.6 degrees higher temperatures. But I don't expect there to be collapse of society for example, or huge climate problems compared to our current problems. It will be getting worse, but it will be slow so we are still the so-called heated frog who doens't really see the change. We will think, in then 10's and 20's it was also hot.

Greatest difference will be it won't be 5 minutes to midnight, but 10 seconds to midnight, even though change is happening, CO2 output will be stabilized or just have started to decrease slowly. Too little and almost too late.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 17, 2019, 12:33:47 PM »
well, predicting a year in the future when ramping up production, at more than 1 location, gives enough time to have an excuse like "we had some setbacks"

And I think if all the pieces fit together, demand isn't an issue and they don't run out of cash, they can manage it. But they shouldn't have to much setbacks

Arctic sea ice / Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« on: April 09, 2019, 09:52:19 AM »
I don't think 1M km2 can really be called blue-ocean; I think my suggestion (which I don't expect and don't hope to happen) is around 0.3M-0.5M km2

Having 2-3x that area is a lot more ice and I don't think you can really call that blue ocean.
I think the red line is around 1M km2, and having an ice sheet from the canadian island to the pole, doesn't feel very no-ice-sheet to me

Arctic sea ice / Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« on: April 09, 2019, 09:08:27 AM »
I go for the most pessimistic one ;)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 08, 2019, 12:28:55 PM »
just as we as mankind.

Well, at least I guess Tesla won't go broke this year, getting several hunderds of millions for doing nothing is a lot of money...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 05, 2019, 09:45:45 AM »
Well, I doubt there will be a significant verdict. Probably some more limitations for Musk and a small fine. Not small for us, but for companies the size of Tesla it is.

That can even have a positive impact for Tesla.
And I can imagine they tried to deliver as much as possible in Q4 and for Model S and X will have had a high demand peak, because of tax breaks, and to have better financial reports which will impact supply ánd demand in Q1.
If I wanted a Tesla I would have had it at the end of 2018 and not in Q1.

So having a peak in Q4 and a decent drop in Q1 is normal, especially for products with these kind of decreasing/ending tax breaks.

I think for the next 3 months there won't be a problem for Tesla, they apparently have enough cash available, I think as long as Musk behaves on Twitter, Q1 financial report is acceptable with these production numbers, stock price will slowly rise because more and more Model 3 will be seen in the wild, which will probably create positive talk about Tesla, improving investor trust, combined with a to-positive-Musk tweet somewhere in May/June. Q2 production should be record high and I think delivery should also be at least near record lvl's (they will have cars in transit to Europe/Asia) otherwise stock will go down below current lvl's.

and in response to Lurk, they have to ramp up production for the 35k model quickly, because I think a lot of people who want to buy an electric car normally buy cars in the 20-30k range (or lease them @ work) and because of lower expected maintenance and fuel costs, combined with tax breaks, the 35k Model 3 is viable for those people.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 04, 2019, 03:19:02 PM »
So they missed their own estimate only by 500? That's much better then I expected seeing those number.

edit: the stock price is really fluctuating these months. It is interesting to see if it will crash much lower or will regain a little of the 10% pre-opening-losses

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: April 04, 2019, 10:58:31 AM »
I am not surprised Model X and Model S deliveries are so much lower than Q4, because of tax incentives.
In the Netherlands a 100k electric car that was bought on 01/01/19 has ~€ 4.5k/year less fiscal subsidy then one bought 1 day earlier...

Pages: [1] 2 3 4