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Messages - gerontocrat

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Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 17, 2017, 03:45:59 PM »

It's been a year or more but Russia was budgeting using $40 oil.
That plus a bumper wheat crop (no GMO), a surging demand for their military equipment, low debt, and a rapidly growing stash of gold will keep them in the game for the foreseeable future.


An interesting article from:-

"Our non-oil and gas budget deficit will reduce to less than 6% in 2018-2020, and in 2019 we stop spending our reserves, which we continue to use this year and in next year," TASS cited Siluanov as saying.

Note that they have been using up their cash reserves and expect to do so for up to 2 more years.
Note also your comment that surging sales of military equipment are helping. Who to and what for? Good news for Russia, maybe not if this reflects growing tensions elsewhere.

A less sanguine view comes from the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)  :-

Page 9 of the pdf file
"The H1 2017 results for Russian regions are ambiguous: the economy is get-
Ɵ ng out of the crisis, but the dynamics of households’ income and consump-
Ɵ on look far less opƟ misƟ c. Revenues of budgets are growing ahead of the
dynamics of expenditures, but in almost half of regions there are sƟ ll budget
imbalances. Regions’ policy prioriƟ es as regards support of the economy and
promoƟ on of human capital development have become more high-profi le,
but posiƟ ve trends are weak and localized primarily in the most compeƟƟ ve
regions. "

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 15, 2017, 07:23:20 PM »

Venezuela, for example,  has a breakeven price of about $28/barrel.  They could either sell a small number of barrels at $100 or a lot of oil at $40 and gain the capital they need to cover debts.  The problem is that there appears to be enough oil that can be sold for less.
At $50 a barrel, Venezuela cannot cover the cost of basic healthcare, education, roads etc and debt repayments. It cannot afford basic imports. The break even price to keep Venezuela afloat is more than $100.
You can't avoid arithmetic. For Venezuela extreme weather events from AGW just make it worse.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: October 15, 2017, 05:44:39 PM »
Gerontocrat: Trump is just one person. And the entire global political and economic elite are against him. Don't you think it's a little hard to blame him for everything.
I believe that he does not care. That is the basic criticism - "frankly, my dear, he does not give a damn" for anything but himself

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 15, 2017, 03:51:41 PM »

So still on track and was never being shelved just considering alternative route.

Who will buy. I have told my boss to check with his pension fund managers on how exposed he is to fossil fuels directly and indirectly (e.g. through those who might buy into the ARAMCO float).

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: October 15, 2017, 03:44:31 PM »
This is an extract from a post on The Trump Presidency by Sigmetnow who found it on facebook
I reproduce it in full as I think it is necessary to give it as wide a circulation as possible.

"We are safe in a hotel for another night. Well, those who know me knew my silence on the politics involved here would not last long. If it bothers you, I understand but it's time to say this. I just watched a man on television describe how his wife died in his arms in Santa Rosa and a mother in tears recounting her son succumbing to the flames in their driveway while trying to escape. People have been burned alive. A women who barely survived the carnage in Las Vegas lost her house. A woman in a wheelchair was waiting to die until a brave sheriff's officer risked his life to save her. Rescuers are finding bodies burnt beyond recognition; other reduced to bones and ash. So far, 36 people have lost their lives, 100,000 people have been evacuated trying their best to find shelter and almost 6,000 structures have been totally destroyed. People are enduring unimaginable circumstances. Also, there is no telling how many pets and wildlife didn't make it. No one can really imagine what this hell is like.

Not that I really care what he says or does, but Trump has not tweeted one word, made a speech, or shown any compassion at all for the victims of the California wildfires. Nothing. Zero. Worthless liberal heathens that we are and not as deserving as the dead red states of Texas and Florida. Are the dead in California less dead? Are their destroyed homes homes not a big deal? Are 100,000 refugees just a statistic? Others do care what the president says and his silence is deafening. If nothing else, the incredibly courageous and selfless firefighters, police, pilots, doctors, nurses and other civil servants deserve thanks and acknowledgment.

Finally, anyone who respects the educated professionals whose lives have been devoted to studying the earth and it's climate, understands that the warming earth and oceans increases the severity of nature's worst tragedies. Like fires, hurricanes and tornadoes as any American could see with their own eyes this year. Warm waters, torrential rains, overgrown brush, excessive heat, severe droughts and hurricane force winds are all a result. This is going to happen again and again as the Trump administration and their GOP and corporate enablers continue to dismantle all efforts aimed at slowing or reversing climate change. This is the new reality."

There is nothing more to say really, is there.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 15, 2017, 03:34:50 PM »
The NHC is its discussion on Ophelia, noted that SSTs were 1 to 2 degrees celsius above "normal" allowing it to maintain hurricane status and increase in intensity even at a relatively high latitude.

One wonders what with this AGW everyone is going on about, and 93% of it going into the oceans, whether the magic 26 celsius SST required for hurricane formation and maintenance is moving into higher latitudes. If so, Ophelia events might become more frequent.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: October 15, 2017, 03:15:09 PM »
The melt season is over. But where else to put the data on what is happening in general to the ice sheet.

Data from shows that after an active September (much greater than in 2016) precipitation in October so far has been average (much less than 2016). Over the next few days no major precipitation seems likely. (The NHC reckon the remains of Ophelia will dissipate over Scandinavia.)

The absence of above average mass gain is of equal significance as its presence.

The rest / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: October 15, 2017, 02:58:26 PM »
Jaxa is having a Sunday off so here is a table as at 13th October. Remaining extent gain in just the next 3 weeks is on average 1.5 million km2, but varies from a mere 0.25 million km2 in the 1980's to over 2 million km2 in 2008.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 15, 2017, 02:47:43 PM »
Jaxa is having a day off but I show the graph below to illustrate the degree to which extent loss in the next month must exceed the average to match 2016.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 15, 2017, 02:27:32 PM »
Although JAXA is having a Sunday off, herewith a table and graph up to 13th October. The table shows the large variation in remaining extent gain that happened in recent years.

The graph does show that on average daily extent gain is at maximum at this time, and later settles back a bit. Methinks this is simply a matter of geography, not climate variation. As ice extent reaches more of the Russian shore further extent gain there is impossible.

The graph also shows that for an individual year (e.g. 2016) the average is irrelevant not just for the season but also any day, week or month. Oneself can but watch record and wonder and hope A-Team and his ilk come up with the goods.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: October 15, 2017, 11:29:14 AM »
Archimid - so glad you're OK.

We get off lightly in the UK.  Great storms are very rare + much less damage than even a cat 1.

"The Great Storm of 1703."

Hit central and southern England. At least 8,000 dead. 700 ships piled up in the Pool of London. 1,000 seamen lost on the Goodwin Sands etc etc.
It is believed to be an extra-tropical cyclone, and very late - 7 December.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 15, 2017, 10:59:08 AM »
Bob Wallace has shown one part of the oil equation, i.e. oil production costs.
Another part is break-even price by country, which reflects the extent of a country's dependence on oil revenues.
Comparing that with current and future oil price tells one how much of a structural problem a country has.

Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq Russia and Saudi Arabia have production costs well below current sale price. But their Governments need a sale price of $100 + to balance the books, i.e. they are going bust, either borrowing, or if they have any, running down their cash reserves.

The same basic components apply to Natural Gas

Everyone with an ounce of rational thought in their brain knows that any sustained increase in crude and natural gas prices results in a boost to US shale production and a boost to renewable energy investment. Many oil producing countries will fail to create an economy independent of oil within the next few years. They will go bust. So will over-exposed investors and lenders. People will starve. It will be messy and violent.

Someone please prove I am wrong.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 10, 2017, 09:37:14 PM »
Bloomberg says Saudi going to cut production again and hoping others will join in. Obvious result will be US production spike.

I honestly believe that speculating on short to medium term movements in oil prices is a mug's game. In the long term (perhaps even  by 2022?) renewables and EVs will start to really impact demand. Saudi Arabia and many others will be in real trouble. The USA may well ban imports and exports to keep the shale oil and gas industry going for some years longer.

The geopolitics of it  all will be fascinating - shifting of political tectonic plates or what.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: October 10, 2017, 09:18:33 PM »
From previous post by shared humanity the USGS study refers to seepage (slow release?) at 80-90 meters depth near Svalbard. The Russian study talks about rapid release at  max of 50 m depth in the ESAS.

Different local conditions produce different results ?

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: October 10, 2017, 07:12:00 PM »
Hullo Oren.
Idiot qu.1. Not the faintest idea. Vague memory of a study on seas near Svalbard ?
Idiot qu. 2. Found a paper - them Russkies again. Suggests cause of quick increase in co2 from 190  to 270 ppm that happened soon after last inter glacial may have been triggered by permafrost exposed as ice sheet retreated. Hence lots of interest from scientists looking at NOW?

Found a paper that said most ch4 in the ESAS is Pleistocene. Also in other papers talk about greatly increased flow in Siberian rivers dumping big amounts from peatlands in the ESAS during the Holocene and accelerating now.
Northern sea route opens. Insolation. Shallow sea warms. Permafrost on sea floor melts. Many many gt of ch4 escapes. Climate stuffed.

Ps . Doing this on mobile so can't give you links. Your turn to get a headache first finding and then wading thru very very scientific abstracts.

Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: October 09, 2017, 10:13:42 PM »
From what I read it would seem that when local conditions favour slow release of ch4 this allows the ch4 bubbles to completely dissolve in the ocean thus encouraging algal blooms.

The studies by Semiltov and Shakhova seem to me to point to the possibility of rapid release of ch4 in the less than 50 m depth of large parts of the ESS as the permafrost cap over the hydrates weakens,  thus allowing much of the ch4 to be released as gas into the atmosphere. Shallow seas warm up quickly to sufficient depth to attack the permafrost.

Not only hydrates but there are also perhaps large amounts of free ch4 gas at greater depth formed from the decay over many thousands of years of carbon rich soil confined under pressure would be released as the hydrate layer thinned and broke. Rather like the classic geology of oil and gas under pressure trapped under a salt dome. Puncture the cap and whoosh! a gusher.

Different geomorphology and ocean depth and temperatures produce different results. The logic is too persuasive for comfort, especially if the Arctic ocean in the ESAS continues to warm.

Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: October 09, 2017, 04:50:21 PM »
[quote author=Shared Humanity link=topic=1053.msg130993#msg130993

Yes and there are two things that must occur throughout the human species for us to address the problem.

First we must finally accept how dire our situation is and the need for coordinated and radical change.

Second, we must embrace a sense of efficacy or the first will, in fact, drive us insane.

The second is too late, at least for me. I did my time locked up while they looked inside my head and patched up some of the neurons. So now I am mostly the old man in the gallery watching it happen.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: October 08, 2017, 05:57:49 PM »
[quote author=Sigmetnow link=topic=438.msg130918#msg130918

By 2025, there will be plenty of full-electric SUVs and trucks with the capabilities people want -- so the market for the gas-guzzling ICE versions will collapse, regardless of CAFE standards.  The only question is whether carmakers in the U.S. will have transitioned quickly enough to remain solvent.

They call it creative destruction - when a new way of doing something destroys the old way. What scares me is not what happens in the USA and Europe and China and India etc when EVs and renewable energy become the new way. What worries me is Saudi Arabia Nigeria Venezuela Russia  etc etc as they find out demand for the black stuff fades away and they have not built a new way and go bust. 10 years is not  a long way away.

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 07, 2017, 06:08:41 PM »
Or would the differance between the two, which probably will stay the same..
Perhaps not. From what I have read temperature increases in the oceans through increased heat retention vary both in lat/long and depth.  Way back in 1990 a deep sea sailor (i.e. dependent on wind) told me that the ocean and air currents were not according to the charts reflecting effects of changes in heat and cold in the oceans
Surprises seem more likely in continuous rapid climate change even with a few super-computers to make sense of it all.

Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 07, 2017, 03:12:39 PM »
A positive SOI means La Niña is on her way. Is that correct ?
It ain't necessarily so. Climate change may have already disrupted the ENSO cycle, the boffins tell us.
Some even predict a return of an El Nino in 2018.

People like me can merely watch and observe the slow motion train wreck of the climate that for a few thousand years was kind to us.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: October 06, 2017, 01:19:55 PM »

The linked article indicates that climate change is threatening the agrobiodiversity.........

Title: "The Sixth Mass Extinction of Wildlife Also Threatens Global Food Supplies"

Extract: "“Huge proportions of the plant and animal species that form the foundation of our food supply are just as endangered [as wildlife] and are getting almost no attention,” said Ann Tutwiler, director general of Bioversity International, a research group that published a new report.

“If there is one thing we cannot allow to become extinct, it is the species that provide the food that sustains each and every one of the seven billion people on our planet,”

Can one count the ways our species is screwing itself up?
Honey tests reveal global contamination by bee-harming pesticides

"Neonicotinoid insecticides are found in 75% of global honey samples and half contain a cocktail of chemicals. Bees and other pollinators are vital to three-quarters of the world’s food crops "

The rest / Re: Ukraine, Nazis and western support
« on: October 05, 2017, 01:53:06 PM »
I guess I will have to write the story of what I was told in my travels in all those countries once part of the Warsaw Pact and ends in Jordan, and starts in October 1917. But it will take some time - too many threads.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 04, 2017, 04:42:45 PM »
Wipneus'  graph on area shows significant recent loss as opposed to some extent gain. I was looking at JAXA's sea ice concentration images over recent days and weeks which seemed to also show significant loss of solidity over much of the sea ice.
The Antarctic could be the place to watch this month?

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 04, 2017, 03:28:33 PM »
The UK was ahead of the game, but, as usual.....
Despite the recent opening of the UK’s first subsidy-free solar farm, the prospects for British solar are fairly gloomy: the amount of solar forecast to be installed by 2022 is a fifth of the amount installed over the last five years.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: October 04, 2017, 03:24:16 PM »
Precipitation very low and seems will be so for some time.
But temp anomaly high now and also for some time.
A quiet period ?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 04, 2017, 03:17:34 PM »
I am not prepared to dismiss that it is a whale. They do come in different sizes from large to enormous.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 04, 2017, 12:54:29 PM »
Nice article re current and projected growth sources of new energy.
"Renewables accounted for two-thirds of new power added to world’s grids last year, says International Energy Agency (IEA)"

"The authority, which is funded by 28 member governments, admitted it had previously underestimated the speed at which green energy was growing."

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: October 04, 2017, 12:03:39 PM »
" ...  wipe out virtually all vertebrate life on earth by mid-century. "

 Any references ?


I repeat a post I put up some time ago and remembered to save.

Who needs Climate Change to implement the 6th Mass Extinction ? has just put this up:-
Half-way to Catastrophe — Global Hothouse Extinction to be Triggered by or Before 2100 Without Rapid Emissions Cuts
Fossil Fuel Burning = Race Toward a 6th Mass Extinction

Trouble is, the 6th Mass Extinction is well underway without much help from climate change. The following links give a clue:-  -
"Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines"
Vertebrate Populations Plummet in 4 Decades

"Deforestation and other human actions have cut the populations of mammals, birds, amphibians and fish by 58 percent since 1970"
"World on track to lose two-thirds of wild animals by 2020, major report warns
Living Planet Index shows vertebrate populations are set to decline by 67% on 1970 levels unless urgent action is taken to reduce humanity’s impact"
Large numbers of vertebrates began rapid population decline in the late 19th century

The current rate of species extinction is ∼1,000 times the background rate of extinction and is attributable to human impact, ecological and demographic fluctuations, and inbreeding due to small population sizes. The rate and the initiation date of rapid population decline (RPD) can provide important clues about the driving forces of population decline in threatened species, but they are generally unknown. We analyzed the genetic diversity data in 2,764 vertebrate species. Our population genetics modeling suggests that in many threatened vertebrate species the RPD on average began in the late 19th century, and the mean current size of threatened vertebrates is only 5% of their ancestral size. We estimated a ∼25% population decline every 10 y in threatened vertebrate species."

Yes, climate change is now an increasingly major contribution to this process but mankind was doing a pretty good job anyway. 

PS: I did a quick and dirty projection, based on the assumption that population depreciation tends to be on a reducing balance basis, i.e. x percent loss each year of the remaining population. The studies quoted above suggest x is about 2.5%.

That suggests a remaining vertebrate total population of between 10 and 20 % by 2050 compared with 1970.

Real mathematicians are needed to estimate how many individual species extinctions that implies, and also assumes pressures on vertebrate populations remain the same in the future.

So maybe total extermination of vertebrates by 2050 is an exaggeration. Or maybe not.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 04, 2017, 11:37:18 AM »
The melting season is underway (although this year the sea ice extent has increased a bit in the last few days despite that polynya in the Weddell Sea that apparently indicates up-welling of major ocean heat from the depths ).

So I've been having a look at extent loss from max to min over the satellite record.

The main result is how small the variation from the average melt has been over the years. A maximum of +5% in 2005-06 and a minimum of -3% in 2007-08.

Whoops - error in table corrected

The second result is that the average melt in the last 10 years would result in a new record minimum extent in Feb/Mar 2018.

BUT I make no prediction - merely present the past for your edification.

Science / Re: 2017 Mauna Loa CO2
« on: October 03, 2017, 06:59:10 PM »
This person wonders with co2 emissions flat but rainforests now a net co2 emitter + other environmental degradation continuing  what will happenn to CO2 concentration in the next few years.

Antarctica / Re: Weddell Sea Polynya Opening
« on: October 03, 2017, 04:04:28 PM »
I've been watching it for weeks and never knew it was such a matter of interest.

How much heat is released into the atmosphere from below?
Is it enough to influence air temperatures in the Weddell sea? (temp anomaly in next few days from cci-reanalyzer are high).

The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: October 01, 2017, 05:57:00 PM »
I agree that Trump should complete his alloted term. When the people vote for someone they need to live with the consequences - the right to choose also includes the responsibility for the consequences thereof.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: October 01, 2017, 12:48:41 PM »
Espen should have added "That's all, folks!" to his last IJIS post ?

The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: October 01, 2017, 11:50:42 AM »

You're aware of course that my mention of Putin's popularity was a response to you're characterization of him as a dictator.

Mao Tse Tung was popular.
Stalin was popular.
Mussolini was popular.
Hitler was popular.
Ghengis Khan was popular.
Hugo Chavez was popular.
Erdogan is popular.
Putin controls the judiciary, the executive and the legislature. I think that makes him dictator in reality even if not on paper. And he is very popular.

And they were all (or becoming) dictators and in the end did or will leave a right old mess behind them.

Either you believe in "we the people" ( = the right to make the mess  belongs to the people) or you don't.

Science / Re: Global Forest Watch
« on: September 30, 2017, 02:58:57 PM »
Some grim reading.

Brazil's worst month ever for forest fires blamed on human activity

"September saw more fires than any month on record, as experts say uptick is due to expansion of agriculture and reduction of oversight and surveillance"

Alarm as study reveals world’s tropical forests are huge carbon emission source
Forests globally are so degraded that instead of absorbing emissions they now release more carbon annually than all the traffic in the US, say researchers

One reads that human CO2 emissions were stable in 2017, and then one reads the above articles and tries not to despair.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 30, 2017, 02:28:42 PM »
Yes, it's freezing - but how quickly? DMI 80+ degrees north graph.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: September 30, 2017, 02:23:10 PM »
Looks like Greenland will be quiet for a few days, but who knows?

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 30, 2017, 02:15:07 PM »

An Absent EPA Climate Report, And A Tale Of Two Flooded Superfund Sites

A posting for "Places Becoming Less Liveable" ?

The rest / Re: Global Sea Ice Extent According to NSIDC
« on: September 30, 2017, 02:07:21 PM »
What will happen in October ?

The rest / Re: How do you get here? - from there???
« on: September 29, 2017, 10:29:15 PM »
Since over 200 million of the world's women do not have access to birth control, how do you propose to prevent men from creating all those extra babies?

we refuse to use any artificial birth control for decades and it works/worked for decades
It worked for men. It still works for men. Women died and still die often simply through too many pregnancies overwork and not enough food. Your post does not deserve and will never receive an LOL from me.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 29, 2017, 10:19:45 PM »

Tesla is sending hundreds of battery packs to power outage-ridden Puerto Rico

So Trump will not have to tell FEMA to send those shipments of coal after all ?

Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: September 29, 2017, 11:20:33 AM »
More failures of major carbon sinks, which are now turning into sources, this time tropical forests:

 Alarm as study reveals world’s tropical forests are huge carbon emission source

Forests globally are so degraded that instead of absorbing emissions they now release more carbon annually than all the traffic in the US
Also a major contribution to the 6th Mass Extinction currently underway and which at the current rate of progress will wipe out virtually all vertebrate life on earth by mid-century.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 27, 2017, 01:44:55 PM »
An interesting article as it makes clear that the priority is to assist the Antarctic Tourism industry.

Antarctic sea ice levels hit record low, but experts are not sure why

"Unpredictable nature of Antarctic sea ice levels the focus at conference of meteorology experts in Australia this week.

Better mapping and predicting these changes to aid polar shipping is the goal of the International Ice Charting Working Group Tasmanian meeting.

Unpredictable sea ice levels are creating headaches for an increasing number of tourist and research boats visiting the Antarctic.

The working group estimates about 50 cruise vessels took almost 35,000 tourists to the Antarctic last year."

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: September 27, 2017, 01:38:06 PM »
The Aussie Government is following the Trump Presidency game plan.

$2.5bn on a coal-fired power station? That's good old pork barrelling

"The Queensland Liberal-National party (LNP) are promising that if they are elected to government they’ll build a new coal power station in northern Queensland. And just this week the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, announced that if Queenslanders elected the LNP at the next state election, all Australian taxpayers would help fund it.

It’s important to note that this would involve a serious amount of taxpayers’ money, because banks and power companies have made it clear they aren’t remotely interested in funding such a plant."

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: September 27, 2017, 01:32:22 PM »
And precipitation continues...

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: September 26, 2017, 08:48:54 PM »
Seems the passage is closed again by new ice
The NE passage will be open for some time. The Russkies will be glad.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2017, 06:41:41 PM »
I look at this thread for data.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 26, 2017, 05:23:42 PM »
This thread is called IJIS 'cos it is for Jaxa data - though I usually stick that at the top of all my postings. There is always a difference with NSIDC but of little moment.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: September 26, 2017, 05:16:13 PM »
Melting may have stopped - though a last spike just might be on the way - but a second spike in precipitation started two days ago and looks like continuing for a day or three. This makes September not a quiet month compared with last year and average years.

It is just possible that sometime next week the remnants of Lee and Maria will arrive. If Greenland doesn't get it, then the UK is the most likely destination.

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: September 26, 2017, 03:31:23 PM »
JAXA DATA (Usually follows NSIDC very closely)
The continued decline in extent, despite -ve or neutral temp and SST anomalies, would make one think the 12 September extent of 18.062 million km2 was definitely the maximum, given that the date of maximum has passed for all years but one - 2015. Extent shot up from now to 2nd October. (see table). 2017 could do the same.

One might also think that 2017-2018 would continue to be a record or near record-low in daily extent. However, the previous record low maximum years of 1986 and 2002 flattered to deceive, extent gently moving into the pack as the melt season progressed. In contrast, the graph below shows how in early November 2016, extent dropped like a stone to the lowest in the satellie record and stayed there until April 2017.

The Antarctic is unpredictable.

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