Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - gerontocrat

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 201
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 16, 2021, 08:22:12 PM »
from NSIDC Data

There is usually a record breaker somewhere. The St Lawrence is at record low sea ice for the time of year both in Area (4 days) and in Extent (2 days).

Given that this sea is very much the smallest sea with the max sea ice extent in March well below 200 k in recent years, it will probably not be that significant is the wider scheme of things.

2
headline from Bloomberg news

Amazon, Uber Among New Corporate Donors to Biden Inauguration

plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 16, 2021, 02:26:15 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 15-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,501,759 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,501,759    km2      
-318,177    km2   <   2010's average.
-454,053    km2   <   2020
 405,100    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    63    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    50    k   gain
Central Seas___    12    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
Bering _______    15    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    19    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    13    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 63 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 39 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 318 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 405 k more than 2017         
- Area is 203 k less than 2016         
- Area is 454 k less than 2020          
- Area is 832 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 15-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,202,986 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 65 k, 25 k more than the 2010's average gain of 40k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 79 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 425 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 142 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 121 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 475 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 16, 2021, 11:27:49 AM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

US Data
24 million recorded cases,
of which 9.5 million active cases.
400 thousand dead.

Just perhaps signs in the 7 day average data of this wave peaking.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 16, 2021, 11:00:47 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,808,672 KM2 as at 15-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 45k, 25 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 70k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -7.38 million km2, 0.43 million km2 (5%) less than the 10 year average loss of -7.80 million km2.

- Extent is at position #11 in the satellite record

On average 86.7% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 29 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.61 million km2, 1.06 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

6
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 16, 2021, 10:48:12 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,805,669 KM2 as at 15-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 105k, 25 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 130k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 14.06 million km2, 0.12 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 13.94 million km2.
- Extent is at position #26 in the satellite record of which 13 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,347 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,166 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  955 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  407 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  154 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 87.2% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 37 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.76 million km2, 0.62 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 16, 2021, 10:39:27 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,003,003 KM2 as at 15-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 60k, 0 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 60k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,448 k, which is 814 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,634 k.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

- Extent is  12 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  374 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  582 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  137 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  50 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 87.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 52 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.29 million km2, 0.42 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 15, 2021, 09:05:29 PM »
Menawhile - data from IEA to October 2020

Stacked % graphs - 12 month trailing average.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 15, 2021, 03:14:26 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 14-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,439,190 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,439,190    km2      
-341,619    km2   <   2010's average.
-458,186    km2   <   2020
 338,542    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    83    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    61    k   gain
Central Seas___    22    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    14    k   gain
Bering _______    16    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    15    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______    17    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    18    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    13    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 83 k, 40 k more than the 2010's average gain of 43 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 342 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 339 k more than 2017         
- Area is 252 k less than 2016         
- Area is 458 k less than 2020          
- Area is 900 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 14-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,138,195 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 55 k, 14 k more than the 2010's average gain of 41k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 104 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 361 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 177 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 125 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 536 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 15, 2021, 11:43:56 AM »
?

This thing will be mostly over by the end of May.
Yep.

Meanwhile,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

World recorded covid deaths just passed 2 million.
Looks like just maybe the peak of new cases has passed but not yet the peak of daily deaths.

let us hope the virus does not successfully mutate to reduce the effectiveness of current vaccines.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 15, 2021, 10:39:03 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,853,773 KM2 as at 14-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 43k, 45 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 88k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -7.33 million km2, 0.40 million km2 (5%) less than the 10 year average loss of -7.73 million km2.

- Extent is at position #11 in the satellite record

On average 85.9% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 30 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.59 million km2, 1.03 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

12
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 15, 2021, 10:29:33 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,910,659 KM2 as at 14-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 107k, 31 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 138k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.95 million km2, 0.14 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 13.81 million km2.
- Extent is at position #25 in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,386 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,127 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  949 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  430 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  133 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 86.4% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 38 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.74 million km2, 0.59 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 15, 2021, 10:16:11 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,943,114 KM2 as at 14-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 64k, 14 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,388 k, which is 814 k, 10% more than the 10 year average of 8,574 k.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

- Extent is  24 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  465 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  555 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  114 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  45 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 86.4% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 53 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.29 million km2, 0.41 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Extent down from 2nd lowest to 8th lowest in just 8 days.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

14
Consequences / Re: 2020 ENSO
« on: January 14, 2021, 06:03:52 PM »
Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 January 2021

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2021 (55% chance during April-June).

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extend from the western to the eastern Pacific Ocean, and reflect the continuation of La Niña [Fig. 1]. Most of the Niño indices were relatively steady throughout the month (the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -1.1°C), with negative values strengthening to -1.2°C in the westernmost Niño-4 region [Fig. 2]. The subsurface temperature anomalies on the equator (averaged from 180°-100°W) remained negative [Fig. 3], but weakened slightly in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric circulation associated with La Niña strengthened over the tropical Pacific Ocean during the month. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western to east-central tropical Pacific and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across most of the tropical Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific and enhanced around the Philippines and parts of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation strengthened during December. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is consistent with the ongoing La Niña.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus is in line with the models and suggests a transition to ENSO-neutral in the late spring 2021. However, the forecast uncertainty increases throughout the summer and fall, which is reflected by the lower probabilities (less than ~50%) for La Niña and ENSO-neutral. These low forecast probabilities beyond the spring are consistent with the spring predictability barrier, when model forecasts are historically less accurate than during other times of the year. In summary, La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance for January-March), with a potential transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2021 (55% chance during April-June; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect climate across the United States during the upcoming months. The 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday January 21st.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 February 2021.[/size]

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 14, 2021, 05:57:29 PM »

Quote
the memory chips

For the want of a chip...

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 14, 2021, 05:51:29 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 13-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,355,855 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,355,855    km2      
-382,319    km2   <   2010's average.
-502,712    km2   <   2020
 270,153    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    78    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    59    k   gain
Central Seas___    19    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
Bering _______    15    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Kara_________    13    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 78 k, 36 k more than the 2010's average gain of 42 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 382 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 270 k more than 2017         
- Area is 304 k less than 2016         
- Area is 503 k less than 2020          
- Area is 969 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 13-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,083,029 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 61 k, 12 k more than the 2010's average gain of 49k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 118 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 308 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 166 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 139 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 559 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

17
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 14, 2021, 01:47:23 PM »

the 20,000 national guardsmen in DC with more in reserve should keep things from getting too out of control. They are also discouraging people from coming to DC until after the inauguration. Its all just words when commoners have problems but when royalty gets the shit scarred out of them they do something about it. It pisses me off how close we came to a dictatorship.
The bad guys win.
That which was a free space for all is now gated and fenced.
Those who presume to govern us are no longer accessible to us.

18
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: January 14, 2021, 11:44:40 AM »
Temperature dependence of global photosynthesis

The linked reference concludes with regard to the terrestrial biosphere that:

"Under business-as-usual emissions, this divergence elicits a near halving of the land sink strength by as early as 2040."
And that excludes the effects of land-use changes that are already threatening the land-based carbon sinks.

People just don't seem to get that just reducing carbon emissions from fossil fuels is not enough

19
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 14, 2021, 11:22:37 AM »
be cause & gerontocrat:
I notice that the most cogent arguments you can make against my linked article are, basically, to foam at the mouth.
Tom, what kind of reaction did you expect?

Trump lost the election fair and square, then discredited the results, pressured election officials and when all this failed, sent his violent mob to the Congress to stop the legal process of declaring Biden the new president. Fortunately only 5 people died. Even more fortunate is the strength of the American democratic institutions, although I doubt we have seen the end of this.

To us living outside the US, Trump behaved like a caricature 1960's African dictator. (Apologies for all Africans, but the post-colonial decades were not very stable on the continent.)

The post you linked compared attempted coup to protests against police brutality. Stupid claims rarely get smart responses.
Scum like Trump and his Acolytes often use "equivalence" to defend evil. A protest against police who have made a sick joke out of "to protect and serve" is presented as equivalent to the (bungled) attempt to impose a fascist dictatorship.

The idea is to force me to debate this, which forces me accept that equivalence. My answer is no. The man that wrote that article is evil. End of. FIN.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 14, 2021, 11:05:35 AM »
Gero you attached the global charts by mistake.
Whoops - corrected

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 14, 2021, 10:59:33 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,897,074 KM2 as at 13-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 65k, 43 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 108k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -7.29 million km2, 0.36 million km2 (5%) less than the 10 year average loss of -7.65 million km2.

- Extent is at position #11 in the satellite record

On average 84.9% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 31 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.54 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
Very high Arctic sea ice gain outweighs the high Antarctic sea ice extent loss. Global extent down another notch to 11th lowest.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

22
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 14, 2021, 10:46:29 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,017,795 KM2 as at 13-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 156k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 138k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.84 million km2, 0.17 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 13.67 million km2.
- Extent is at position #24 in the satellite record of which 11 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,422 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,068 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  953 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  440 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  117 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 85.6% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 39 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.71 million km2, 0.56 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
For a change an above average extent loss and extent up one place from 25th to 24th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 14, 2021, 10:05:16 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,879,279 KM2 as at 13-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 91k, 61 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 30k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,324 k, which is 801 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,524 k.

- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record

- Extent is  44 k MORE than 2020,
- Extent is  448 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  522 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  124 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  31 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 85.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 54 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.28 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
And another very high sea ice extent gain sends extent down another place to 7th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 13, 2021, 06:27:24 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Italy holds the line, Not getting much better, not getting worse. (X fingers)

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 13, 2021, 05:25:21 PM »
UK deaths today 1,564.
To put that in perspective, an equivalent figure for the USA based on population would be around 7,500.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2021, 02:46:00 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 12-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,277,437 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,277,437    km2      
-418,863    km2   <   2010's average.
-562,485    km2   <   2020
 211,781    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    59    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    36    k   gain
Central Seas___    24    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    13    k   gain
Bering _______    12    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -5    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________    15    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 59 k, 24 k more than the 2010's average gain of 35 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 419 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 212 k more than 2017         
- Area is 325 k less than 2016         
- Area is 562 k less than 2020          
- Area is 1,029 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 12-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 13,022,234 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 53 k, 14 k more than the 2010's average gain of 39k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 129 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 244 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 135 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 172 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 567 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

27
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/biden-climate-team-says-it-underestimated-trumps-damage/
Biden Climate Team Says It Underestimated Trump’s Damage

Agency reviews have found greater budget cuts, staff losses and elimination of climate programs than initially thought
Quote
President-elect Joe Biden’s transition team says the Trump administration has done more damage than anticipated to the government’s ability to address climate change.

Potentially lowering expectations for the incoming president’s early climate efforts, Biden officials say their agency review teams have found deeper budget cuts, wider staff losses and more systematic elimination of climate programs and research than they realized.

Some climate moves can’t happen until Biden officials remedy those deficiencies, a senior transition official said, because “those have been very carefully directed budget cuts to the very parts of the [EPA] that are going to be necessary to get rid of [Trump’s] outrageous rollbacks.”

28
And this study says conmmitted warming greater than current conventional wisdom but will take longer to happen. Note the importance of clouds again.

https://apnews.com/article/climate-climate-change-pollution-3f226aed9c58e36c69e7342b104d48bf
Study: Warming already baked in will blow past climate goals
Quote
The amount of baked-in global warming, from carbon pollution already in the air, is enough to blow past international agreed upon goals to limit climate change, a new study finds.

But it’s not game over because, while that amount of warming may be inevitable, it can be delayed for centuries if the world quickly stops emitting extra greenhouse gases from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, the study’s authors say.

Dessler and colleagues at the Lawrence Livermore National Lab and Nanjing University in China calculated committed warming to take into account that the world has warmed at different rates in different places and that places that haven’t warmed as fast are destined to catch up.

Places such as the Southern Ocean, surrounding Antarctica are a bit cooler, and that difference creates low-lying clouds that reflect more sun away from earth, keeping these places cooler. But this situation can’t keep going indefinitely because physics dictates that cooler locations will warm up more and when they do, the clouds will dwindle and more heating will occur, Dessler said.

Outside experts said the work is based on compelling reasoning, but want more research to show that it’s true. Breakthrough Institute climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said the new work fits better with climate models than observational data.

Study - paywalled
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-00955-x
Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect
Quote
Abstract
Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. After the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty.

29
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: January 13, 2021, 11:59:29 AM »
"The Ghastly Future" - vox_mundi got there first.

Qu:- Will those super-intelligent robots** (currently closer to reality than is comfortable) see the destruction of carbon-based life forms on this planet as undesirable?
(**see vox_mundi's posts on Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction)

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2021, 10:52:49 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,962,503 KM2 as at 12-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 8k, 81 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 89k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -7.22 million km2, 0.32 million km2 (4%) less than the 10 year average loss of -7.54 million km2.

- Extent is at position #10 in the satellite record

On average 83.7% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 32 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.50 million km2, 0.95 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
Low Antarctic extent losses and high Arctic extent gains push global sea ice extent from 6th lowest to 10th lowest over the last week.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

31
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 13, 2021, 10:41:26 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,174,023 KM2 as at 12-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 122k, 14 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 136k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.69 million km2, 0.15 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 13.53 million km2.
- Extent is at position #25 in the satellite record of which 12 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,455 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,073 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,027 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  459 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  141 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 84.7% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 40 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.73 million km2, 0.58 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
And yet another lower than average extent loss pushes extent from 23rd to 25th lowest in the 43 year satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2021, 10:13:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,788,480 KM2 as at 12-Jan-2021

- Extent gain on this day 114k, 66 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,234 k, which is 740 k, 9% more than the 10 year average of 8,494 k.

- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record

- Extent is  25 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  420 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  410 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  172 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  28 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 85.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 55 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.22 million km2, 0.34 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Looks like the extent loss on Jan 11 was just a blip. This day's century+ gain puts extent back to 6th lowest again.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 12, 2021, 10:13:14 PM »
You should follow the link and watch the video to see yet another reason for why perhaps the USA should be put on suicide watch.

Covid-19: Alabama crowds ignore coronavirus to celebrate championship

Fans of the University of Alabama football team gathered in the streets of Tuscaloosa in Alabama, ignoring social distancing. They were celebrating the university's third national championship in the past six years.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-55641084


34
Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: January 12, 2021, 09:29:03 PM »
Quote
Based on the preliminary set of data for the year, the authors estimate that overall US emissions fell below 1990 levels for the first time in three decades.
Three decades ago was the beginning of the 1990s, so is this using a bunch of pixels to say nothing, or is it arcane philosophy?
Such uncaring waste. It's about time we took reducing pixel emissions seriously.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2021, 06:52:51 PM »
The data arrived..............

NSIDC Total AREA as at 11-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,218,200 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,218,200    km2      
-443,256    km2   <   2010's average.
-603,823    km2   <   2020
 177,187    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    51    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    22    k   gain
Central Seas___    30    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    15    k   gain
Bering _______    12    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______    7    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Kara_________    10    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 51 k, 19 k more than the 2010's average gain of 32 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 443 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 177 k more than 2017         
- Area is 312 k less than 2016         
- Area is 604 k less than 2020          
- Area is 1,054 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 11-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,969,554 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 47 k, 4 k more than the 2010's average gain of 43k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 143 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 196 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 145 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 194 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 554 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

36
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 12, 2021, 06:31:12 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK Data
7 day average of daily deaths now at a record high - nearly 1,000.

But just maybe 7 day average of daily new cases has peaked.

ps: Recovered and active cases data only just appeared on worldometers. Looks a bit dodgy and I can't be bothered to go right back in time to post the data.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 12, 2021, 05:27:56 PM »
Can anyone tell us what is happening about the million mile battery? Lots of articles in early 2020.

38
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 12, 2021, 05:15:38 PM »
Lawlessness begets lawlessness
http://edwardfeser.blogspot.com/2021/01/lawlessness-begets-lawlessness.html

 Tom , at the same time as allowing this post , I just wish to say .. 'how dare you !' .. I even had to delete my own expletive .. b.c.
Tom  Mr. Mazanec
Several steps too far for me.
Beyond the pale indeed.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 12, 2021, 03:45:42 PM »
Not looking so good in Africa -

Why? International Finance aimed at fossil fuel powered electricity generation

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55620848
Climate change: Africa's green energy transition 'unlikely' this decade
Quote
Fossil fuels are set to remain the dominant source of electricity across Africa over the next decade, according to a new study.

Researchers found that around 2,500 power plants are planned, enough to double electricity production by 2030. But the authors say that less than 10% of the new power generated will come from wind or solar.

The authors say that Africa now risks being locked into high carbon energy for decades.
They argue that a rapid, decarbonisation shock is needed to cancel many of the plants currently planned.

Until now, there has been a widely shared view that African countries would "leapfrog" directly to renewable energy sources, and away from old world coal, oil and gas. This has already happened with communications, where countries have invested in cellular technology and over 90% of people across the continent have access to a mobile service.

But the new research indicates that this same sort of leap isn't likely to happen with green electricity over the next decade. By 2030, the study suggests that coal, oil and gas will continue to dominate the generation of electricity across 54 African countries, with just 9.6% coming from renewable sources, excluding hydro power.

"We based our analysis on understanding the chances of the power plants that are currently being planned, being commissioned by the end of this decade," lead author Galina Alova from the University of Oxford told BBC News.

"In the next few years, we see that renewable energy power plants have, for example, lower success chances than gas and oil. We find that the success chances have been improving especially for solar, but for others like wind particularly, they're still quite modest."

"Internationally, we're still using development finance for fossil fuelled plants," said Philipp Trotter. "The US is heavily investing in natural gas plants in Africa. If you redirect a majority of these funds to renewables, that is when you can really kick start them. That's especially important for a technology like wind, which hasn't really taken off yet in Africa.

"There's still time to turn it around. But the deeper you go into the planning and construction stages of projects, the harder it would be to turn it around at large scale. So it's really important to act really fast."

The study has been published in the journal Nature Energy. ***
*** https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-020-00755-9.epdf?sharing_token=S8wpW95hUJdHjg5NhES8L9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0N8hGqjXCwrAcskVf4EKbH1ubHj3Ki8TztNHHdP7A73N1QN3WKLSnNW_nK9MRUekSUrboE_D43IaQdaScsEQ1ocQNvhpOq3cyecEH8qTKy_Re2Yu6msQmTytETOepKg5XutxPUHO9vzF6aIGAyT28DYI-3nrrPxFGqP47ySnxcFvvxb1iGsUGh2T2v_i_XEURg%3D&tracking_referrer=www.bbc.co.uk
A machine-learning approach to predicting Africa’s electricity mix based on planned power plants and their chances of success

40
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 12, 2021, 03:30:43 PM »
First known virus case found in apes at US zoo

One of the gorillas at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park
Quote
As many as eight gorillas have tested positive for Covid-19 at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park, in what is believed to be the first cases of their kind among apes in captivity.

Some of the gorillas have shown symptoms, including coughing, but none appear seriously ill.

While there has been one definitive positive test, all eight are presumed to have been exposed to the virus. It is presumed that the gorilla contracted it from a human handler.

"Aside from some congestion and coughing, the gorillas are doing well," Lisa Peterson, executive director of the San Diego Zoo Safari Park, said in the statement.

"The troop remains quarantined together and are eating and drinking. We are hopeful for a full recovery."

The zoo has been closed since the beginning of December due to the pandemic.

Though this is thought to be the first known case in apes, the virus has shown up in some other animals, including domestic cats and dogs.

41
Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: January 12, 2021, 03:25:33 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55632050
Climate change: US emissions in 2020 in biggest fall since WWII
Quote
US greenhouse gas emissions tumbled below their 1990 level for the first-time last year as a result of the response to the coronavirus pandemic.

A preliminary assessment from research group Rhodium says that overall emissions were down over 10%, the largest fall since World War II.

Transport suffered the biggest decline, with emissions down almost 15% over 2019.

Energy emissions also fell sharply, due to a decline in the use of coal.

The widespread impact of Covid-19 on the US saw over 20 million people infected with the virus, and to date more than 350,000 have died as a result. With stay-at-home orders in place, economic activity ground to a halt in March and April and this had significant implications for greenhouse gas emissions.

In transport, the restrictions on international travel and non-essential journeys saw demand for fuel fall sharply. At the peak of restrictions demand for jet fuel was down 68% on 2019, with petrol down 40%. They have both bounced back as travel bans were eased later in the year but jet fuel demand was still 35% down in December compared to the previous year.

When it comes to electricity though the picture is more complicated.

Overall the demand for electricity was down just 2% but emissions fell by over 10%.
"This was driven almost exclusively from the continued rapid decline of coal-fired power generation," the report says.

After decades of dominance, coal in 2020 was the third largest source of power, behind natural gas and nuclear. Renewables now supply 18% of power, the report says, just behind coal with 20% of the market.

Based on the preliminary set of data for the year, the authors estimate that overall US emissions fell below 1990 levels for the first time in three decades.

The overall fall of 10.3% essentially dwarves the impact of the great economic recession of 2009 on the US, when emissions were down 6.3%. In global climate negotiations, the US uses 2005 as its benchmark year. Compared to 2005 levels, emissions in 2020 were 21.5% down, exceeding the target the US set for itself under the Copenhagen Accord of 2009.

Under the Paris Agreement, the US has promised to cut emissions by 26-28% below the 2005 mark, but the authors of the Rhodium report caution against thinking that the country is now on track to reach this target.

Last year "certainly shouldn't be considered a down payment towards meeting the US target under the Paris Agreement," the report says. "The enormous toll of economic damage and human suffering as a result of the pandemic is no cause for celebration."

Economic growth is expected to reach 3-4% of GDP in 2021 and greenhouse gas emissions will likely increase as well.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2021, 02:03:25 PM »
Damn

Back online but no data update for the 11th

43
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 12, 2021, 01:57:27 PM »
2020 is likely to be the year in which most deaths have ever been recorded in England and Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55631693
Covid: 2020 saw most excess deaths since World War Two
Quote
The Covid pandemic has caused excess deaths to rise to their highest level since World War Two.

There were close to 697,000 deaths in the UK in 2020 - nearly 91,000 more than what would be expected based on the average in the previous five years.

This represents an increase of 15% - making it the largest rise in excess deaths for more than 75 years.

When the age and size of the population is taken into account 2020 saw the worst death rates since the mid 2000s.

This measure - known as age-standardised mortality - takes into account population growth and age.

Mistakes 'cost lives' in a pandemic

Richard Murray, chief executive of The King's Fund, said the picture was likely to worsen given Covid deaths are rising following the surge in infections over recent weeks.

"The UK has one of the highest rates of excess deaths in the world, with more excess deaths per million people than most other European countries or the US.

'It will take a public inquiry to determine exactly what went wrong, but mistakes have been made.

"In a pandemic, mistakes cost lives. Decisions to enter lockdown have consistently come late, with the government failing to learn from past mistakes or the experiences of other countries.

"The promised "protective ring" around social care in the first wave was slow to materialise and often inadequate, a contributing factor to the excess deaths among care home residents last year.

'Like many countries, the UK was poorly prepared for this type of pandemic."

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 12, 2021, 11:47:48 AM »
Dividend isn't the only way for a company to create monetary value to its shareholders. Stock buyback is a common method, and many growing companies decide to invest all revenue back into the business as they see this is the most effective way to increase shareholder value.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is famous for never paying dividend. Buffett believes his investors cannot make better return elsewhere making it unoptimal for paying dividend which would be invested elsewhere with lower return.

I suppose Tesla investors are quite happy with Tesla's strategy so far.
Putting profit back into the business to grow the business is so last century - even if it is the best way of giving investors value.

Using profit (and why not borrowing as well) for share buybacks and increased dividends is so this century - and a good way to ensure the business in the end will die.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2021, 10:47:17 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  17,970,013 KM2 as at 11-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 116k, 11 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 105k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is -7.22 million km2, 0.23 million km2 (3%) less than the 10 year average loss of -7.45 million km2.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

On average 82.8% of sea ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 33 days to minimum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in February 2021 of 16.42 million km2, 0.87 million km2 above the 2018 record low minimum of 15.55 million km2.
___________________________________________________
An Arctic sea ice extent loss vs the normal gain  was more significant than the low Antarctic sea ice loss
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image to enlarge

46
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 12, 2021, 10:34:50 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,295,932 KM2 as at 11-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 109k, 50 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 159k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 13.57 million km2, 0.17 million km2, (1%) more than the 10 year average of 13.40 million km2.
- Extent is at position #23 in the satellite record of which 10 lower values are in the years before 2000

- Extent is  2,488 k LESS than 2015
- Extent is  1,029 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  1,044 k MORE than 2006
- Extent is  456 k MORE than 2020
- Extent is  143 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 83.8% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 41 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.71 million km2, 0.57 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2021, 10:00:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,674,081 KM2 as at 11-Jan-2021

- Extent loss on this day 6k, 60 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 9,119 k, which is 674 k, 8% more than the 10 year average of 8,446 k.

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

- Extent is  36 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  342 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  277 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  216 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  99 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 85.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 56 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.14 million km2, 0.27 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Today's extent loss puts extent back to 4th lowest from 6th. A one day hiccup ?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 11, 2021, 02:55:43 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 10-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 11,166,873 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,166,873    km2      
-463,041    km2   <   2010's average.
-638,864    km2   <   2020
 160,671    km2   >   2017
         
Total Change    35    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    26    k   gain
Central Seas___    9    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 35 k, 9 k more than the 2010's average gain of 26 k         
         
- Area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 463 k less than the 2010's average         
- Area is 161 k more than 2017         
- Area is 260 k less than 2016         
- Area is 639 k less than 2020          
- Area is 1,070 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 10-Jan-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,922,293 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 65 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average gain of 36k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 147 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 176 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 111 k less than 2016         
- EXTENT is 208 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 534 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

49
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: January 11, 2021, 02:10:57 PM »
Jaxa Data - a bit more

Antarctic Sea Ice - How average can it get?

The plume shows the erratic nature of extent change over the years.

I attach the graph of the current estimate of the January monthly average. As you can see, the linear change trend is an enormously SMALL 811 Km2 gain per year with an R2 value of 0.00. At 4.7 million the average would be about 200k below that meaningless trend, or more meaningfully about 200k below the 42 year January average.

Meanwhile, the 365 day trailing average is going up - and possibly in around 2 months will reach the 42 year average of 11.6 million km2.

After 42 years of ups and downs one ends up back where one started, But AGW has happened, the AIS is losing mass. But Antarctic sea ice extent does not seem to be a nice simple metric on which to track the impact of AGW.

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: January 11, 2021, 12:20:23 PM »
Like, when people are losing their job and homes, we'll actually see more expensive car sales? How is this possible?
The very rich and a good many of the well-off have prospered mightily during this epidemic, and not just in the USA. Even Bloomberg had an article on how ever increasing income inequality is baked into the system (Wall Street & Friends wrote the Finance Laws).

Recession, inflation create wealth opportunities for those at the top of the pile. Some of the increased wealth will be spent. If 20% are unemployed and another 40% are only just scraping by, that still leaves 40% with real money to spend. A nice shiny new EV to show how one is doing one's bit for the Planet?

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 201