Staying at or below 1.5°C requires reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to 45 percent below 2010 levels by 2030
In 2010 CO2 emissions from fossil fuels & industry were circa 33 GT + **land-use changes 5 GT = 38 GT
In 2018 CO2 emissions from fossil fuels & industry were circa 37 GT + **land-use changes 5 GT = 42 GT
(**assumes no change)
So how are we doing in 2019? I sent an e-mail to ENERDATA.com
I got an answer. 2019 emissions from energy estimated to rise by 1 to 1.5% in 2019.
The main conclusion for me is that the drop in CO2 emissions from the reduction in coal + increase in energy from renewable sources is less than the increase in CO2 emissions from growth in Natural Gas and oil.
So assume
In 2019 CO2 emissions from fossil fuels & industry were circa 37.5 GT + **land-use changes 5 GT = 42.5 GT
For
total CO2 emissions to reduce by 45% by 2030,
- 2030 total emissions down to 21 GT,
- 2030 emissions from fossil fuels & industry 16 GT (assumes no change in land-use changes)
That is a reduction of 58% in CO2 from fossil fuels & industry from 2019 to 2030..
It also assumes that emissions from land-use changes will not increase and the carbon sinks will not deteriorate.
Meanwhile..
Climate change: UN negotiators 'playing politics' amid global crisis
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50706236