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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 07:25:43 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,005,938 km2(March 18, 2019)

- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 11k, 2 k more than the average loss of 9k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 265k, 151 k (133%) greater than average of 114k,
- On average 1.2% of the melting season done, with 179 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.24 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will increase from +1.5 degrees to +4.5 over the next week or so.

2
The linked article indicates that the USA and Saudi Arabia recently blocked a U.N. resolution to make the UNEA (U.N. Environment Assembly) the governing body for regulating any future potential implementation of geoengineering.  Apparently, the USA and Saudi Arabia did not want a U.N. body to limit/regulate the impacts of geoengineering on the overall environment and on small countries:

Title: "U.S. Blocks U.N. Resolution on Geoengineering"

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/u-s-blocks-u-n-resolution-on-geoengineering/
Here we have the USA - in search of energy dominance based on oil and gas as official Government policy, and Saudi Arabia - facing bankruptcy if/when demand for the black stuff collapses.

So not a surprise if they want unfettered freedom to try geo-engineering by any means to capture CO2 so fossil fuel production can not only continue unabated but increase. It won't work but.......

The lunatics have taken over the asylum - the brakes on the Trumpistan roller-coaster have failed.

3
Here is an example of how a proposed geoengineering measure could lead to unintended consequences:

Moore et al. (2018) proposed that using a submarine wall to block the penetration of warm water into the ice shelf cavities could reduce this risk. We use a global sea ice-ocean model to show that a wall shielding the Amundsen Sea below 350 m depth successfully suppresses the inflow of warm water and reduces ice shelf melting. However, the warm water gets redirected towards neighboring ice shelves, which reduces the effectiveness of the wall.

I recommend Part 3 of John Wyndhm's SF novel - "The Kraken Wakes" especially to those who think we can fix stuff with massive infrastructure and other engineering projects.

4
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 18, 2019, 05:19:35 PM »
This anti-vax bullshit is making this thread less livable.
Let us hope the infection does not spread throughout the forum.

Has Neven got a vaccination to hand?

5
Plunging!

We shall see if it continues but at the moment it looks like it will for at least a few more days.
NA temperatures say yes, but with little rain so wunderground.com suggest an orderly snow melt after the floods.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 18, 2019, 02:04:10 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,081,068 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,081,068    km2      
 124,443    km2   >   2010's average.
 299,543    k   >   2018
-249,598    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -32    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -1    k   loss
Central Seas__   -5    k   loss
Other Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -11    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -11    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Area LOSS 32 k, 38 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 6 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will vary from -0 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days.

A surprising swift switch from area gain to area loss, mostly due to losses in the Okhotsk, St Lawrence and Hudson seas.

7
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: How quickly could Greenland melt?
« on: March 18, 2019, 11:43:59 AM »
Winter rainfall is obviously having an impact, but is not yet a game changer ?

Add this to the mix ...

Climate Change: Rain Melting Greenland Ice Sheet 'Even In Winter'
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47485847

Rain is becoming more frequent in Greenland and accelerating the melting of its ice, a new study has found.

A caveat..
Quote
Quoting from the paper
Melting during winter events mostly occurs near the southern and western coasts and has
an average areal extent of circa 1,300 km2,
while melting during summer events extends further inland and northward and spans on average circa 17,000 km2.

The average duration of the events, has increased from circa 2 to circa 3 days for winter events and from circa 2 to circa 5 days for summer events.

Even though winter events are stronger with regard to the underlying weather systems, their
overall contribution to the net rainfall and melting is minor compared to that of summer events.

8
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: March 18, 2019, 11:28:48 AM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 17 March 2019

In the last 5 days or so, precipitation was mostly well below average.
Accumulated SMB in the year to date is around 75 GT or more (circa 15 to 20%) below average.

However, it looks likely that precipitation could be somewhat above average over the next few days. This includes at least one cyclonic event from the S.E. identified in the recent paper about the significance and increasing frequency of summer and winter rainfall events.

The contrast with North America continues - now N. America gets a bit dryer as Greenland gets a bit wetter.
___________________________________________________________________

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 18, 2019, 05:03:51 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,017,283 km2(March 17, 2019

- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent loss on this day 76k, 61 k more than the average loss of 15k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 254k, 149 k (142%) greater than average of 105k,
- On average 1.1% of the melting season done, with 180 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.24 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will vary from -0 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 17, 2019, 08:31:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,113,396 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,113,396    km2      
 162,395    km2   >   2010's average.
 371,029    k   >   2018
-220,565    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss   -10    k   loss
Peripheral Seas    15    k   gain
Central Seas__    1    k   gain
Other Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    15    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -11    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Area LOSS 10 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 13 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually change from around -0.5 degrees to +3 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

A surprising swift switch from area gain to area loss, entirely due to losses in the Okhotsk, St Lawrence and Hudson seas. From today posting will assume the melting season is getting underway.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 17, 2019, 12:52:51 PM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 16 March 2019 :-  17,112,765  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 3rd lowest, above 2017 & 2006. Unusual extent loss for a second day.

- extent loss on this day 15k, 94k less than the average gain of 79 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 860k, 750k (46%) less than the average gain of 1,610k,
-on average 17.8% of extent gain done and 233 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.84 million km2,  1,205 k more than the record low max of 2016.
__________________________________________________________
From now on only occasional updates unless unusual stuff going on.
[/quote]

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 17, 2019, 12:36:24 PM »
This thread should be made sticky instead of the freezing season thread.
And that is my final call.

One more JAXA SIE drop tomorrow, and I'll make it happen.  :)
And it happened

13
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 17, 2019, 12:31:32 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 3,019,384 km2(March 16, 2019)

Days of relatively low gains continue.

Extent GAIN of 40k, 28k less than the average gain of 68 k on this day.
Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017 and 2006(just).

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 595k,  685k (53%) less than the average of 1,280k by this day,
- 7.7% of the freezing season done, with 184 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.81 million km2, 250k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 17, 2019, 11:39:39 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,093,381 km2(March 16, 2019)

- Extent now 178k less than current maximum of 12 March,
- Extent loss 55k, 66 k more than the average gain of 11k on this day.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 5 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4 3 1  zero out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 .

i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is surely the 2019 maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually rise from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Surely this is the day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
[/quote]

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 16, 2019, 02:08:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,123,348 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,123,348    km2      
 184,917    km2   >   2010's average.
 440,414    k   >   2018
-220,376    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    32    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    40    k   gain
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___   -6    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    18    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area GAIN 32 k, 14 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 18 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually change from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

The data suggests that after 2 or so days further area gain, there is a genuine prospect of the melting season getting underway.

16
Here are pictures from my farm after the blizzard.  Incredible.  If it was open before, it is still open after the blizzard.  Lots of bare road surfaces.  But if it was drifted before, oh boy, is it ever drifted.  Most of the area behind the outbuildings is 6-8 feet deep, with crests higher than that.

http://imgur.com/gallery/zChc4R7
That is absolutely bonkers. I wonder how bad the Mississippi flooding could get this spring. The river is already flooding in many locations.

A lot is dependent on the spring weather.  The western snowpack is quite deep, which will result in significant spring runoff.  As I understand it, the eastern river system is already high, so there is the potential for heavy flooding.  However, a slow melting spring could alleviate these conditions.  We will just have to wait and see, but if I lived there, I would prepare early.
The mid-west is flooding - big-time

https://www.wunderground.com/news/safety/floods/news/2019-03-15-record-flooding-nebraska-iowa-south-dakota-bomb-cyclone-snowmelt
Record Flooding in Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota Follows Snowmelt, Bomb Cyclone; Rivers Still Rising Into Next Week

River level records have been smashed in four states in the Plains and Midwest, and river flooding will continue for several more days after rapid snowmelt and heavy rain from the bomb cyclone swamped the nation's heartland.

As of Friday, 24 locations have topped new record river levels, mainly in the Missouri Valley from southeastern South Dakota into Nebraska and western Iowa, but also in parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota.

While smaller creeks, streams and rivers have crested or soon will, larger main stem rivers might continue to rise and remain in flood for days from the central Plains to the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes as this volume of water slowly moves downstream.

There were over 300 river gauges above flood stage in the Mississippi River and Missouri River watersheds.

The good news is mainly dry weather is expected in the nation's heartland for the next several days. However, markedly warmer weather is also expected, which will accelerate melting of lingering snow cover from the northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes. As a result, water from melting snow will continue to pour into smaller tributaries, then larger mainstem rivers, likely keeping those mainstem rivers relatively high over the next few weeks.

17
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 15 march

Here are SCE and SWE for North America (NA) and Eurasia (EU)

Eurasia continues to be a poster child for the climate models, i.e. more snow at high latitudes but below average SCE as the snowline heads north as the years go by and now steeply declining as the spring approaches. Also SWE has probably peaked.

From my post on March 10 re Storm Ulmer in North America
Quote
Wunderground.com says the USA is going to get a classic slow-moving March storm next week.

The balance between rain and snow is going to be interesting.... ... my little prediction that belongs to me for North America (NA) is that by next weekend
- a goodly part of the current thin snow cover in the more southerly latitudes of the USA will be gone, i.e. SCE will be heading South
- NA-SWE (snow mass) will either be dithering around the max or will show a loss.

And to my relief and surprise, snow cover extent down by a lot, and snow water equivalent has reduced.

It looks like North America will be a bit dryer and warmth will be heading North and heading East especially from the Pacific Coast over the next 10 days, with some really warm days. So the only question is how quickly SCE and SWE will reduce in North America from now on?

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 16, 2019, 09:25:02 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 15 March 2019 :-    17,146,871  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 3rd lowest, above 2017 & 2006. Unusual extent loss on this day.

- extent loss on this day 19k, 108k less than the average gain of 89 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 880k, 650k (43%) less than the average gain of 1,530k,
-on average 16.9% of extent gain done and 234 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.84 million km2,  1,208 k more than the record low max of 2016.
__________________________________________________________
From now on only occasional updates unless unusual stuff going on.

19
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 16, 2019, 06:47:57 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,979,119 km2(March 15, 2019)

Days of relatively low gains continue.

Extent GAIN of 17k, 48k less than the average gain of 65 k on this day.
Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017 and 2006.

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 554k,  661k (54%) less than the average of 1,216k by this day,
- 7.3% of the freezing season done, with 185 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.83 million km2, 230k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 16, 2019, 06:35:27 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,148,530 km2(March 15, 2019)

- Extent now 123k less than current maximum of 12 March,
- Extent loss 36k, 61 k more than the average gain of 25k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 4 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4 3 only 1 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is very much probably the 2019 maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually rise from around -0.5 degrees to +2.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Is this the day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 15, 2019, 02:05:11 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)   13,090,986 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,090,986    km2      
 170,560    km2   >   2010's average.
 469,005    k   >   2018
-266,814    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    49    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    52    k   gain
Central Seas__    0    k   gain
Other Seas___   -3    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    17    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    25    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Area GAIN 49 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 20 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually change from around -0.5 degrees to +1.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

The data suggests that after 2 or 3 days further area gain, there is a genuine prospect of the melting season getting underway.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 15, 2019, 10:53:13 AM »
JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent as at 14 March 2019 :-    17,146,871  km2

Global Sea Ice Extent on this day is 3rd lowest, above 2017 & 2006.

- extent gain on this day 4k, 83k less than the average gain of 87 k on this day,
- extent gain from minimum to date is 900k, 550k (38%) less than the average gain of 1,450k,
-on average 15.9% of extent gain done and 235 days to maximum ( 4-Nov),
- last 10 years average remaining extent gain would give a maximum of 24.87 million km2,  1,237 k more than the record low max of 2016.

From now on only occasional updates unless a big surprise (either way).
[/quote]

23
Arctic background / Re: Arctic Background Data Library
« on: March 15, 2019, 10:27:44 AM »
Here is a report from the UN on the Arctic looking at just about everything. Available as pdf or e-book. Loads of really nice (though sometimes somewhat alarming) graphics.

http://www.grida.no/publications/431
https://gridarendal-website-live.s3.amazonaws.com/production/documents/:s_document/465/original/GlobalLinkages.pdf?1552478695
https://grid.cld.bz/Global-Linkages/2/

24
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: March 15, 2019, 10:14:02 AM »
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
Quote
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 March 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis:  Weak El Nino conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance).

El Niño conditions strengthened during February 2019, as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) increased across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1] and the associated atmospheric anomalies became increasingly well-defined. The SST index values in the Niño3, Niño3.4 and Niño4 regions all increased during February, with the latest weekly values near +1°C in each region [Fig. 2]. The anomalous upper-ocean heat content (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased appreciably during February [Fig. 3], due to an increase in above-average temperatures at depth in association with a downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Enhanced equatorial convection prevailed near the Date Line, while suppressed convection was observed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly in the central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the far western and far eastern Pacific. The equatorial and traditional Southern Oscillation Index values were both negative (-1.4 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with weak El Niño conditions.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through the Northern Hemisphere early autumn 2019 [Fig. 6]. Given the recent downwelling Kelvin wave, and the increase in both the SSTs and subsurface ocean temperatures, most forecasters expect positive SST anomalies to persist across the central and eastern Pacific for at least the next several months. During that time, forecasters predict the SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region to remain between +0.5°C and +1.0°C, indicating weak El Niño conditions. However, because forecasts made during spring tend to be less accurate, the predicted chance that El Niño will persist beyond summer is currently about 50%. In summary, weak El Niño conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~80% chance) and summer (~60% chance); click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 April 2019.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

25
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 15, 2019, 09:20:48 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,961,965 km2(March 14, 2019)

Days of relatively low gains continue. )Though note on Table Ant3 the year 2006)

Extent GAIN of 44k, 33k less than the average gain of 77 k on this day.
Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017 and 2006.

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 537k,  612k (53%) less than the average of 1,149k by this day,
- 6.9% of the freezing season done, with 186 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.88 million km2, 180k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 15, 2019, 09:09:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,184,906 km2(March 14, 2019)

- Extent now 86k less than current maximum of 12 March,
- Extent loss 40k, 49 k more than the average gain of 9k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 3 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4  3 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is likely the 2019 maximum.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +1.5 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 14, 2019, 06:33:45 PM »
And yet another way of looking at NSIDC extent max & min over the years.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 14, 2019, 03:38:01 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  13,042,392 km2
         
Total Area         
 13,042,392    km2      
 141,851    km2   >   2010's average.
 471,854    k   >   2018
-331,612    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    50    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    48    k   gain
Central Seas__    5    k   gain
Other Seas___   -2    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    19    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______    26    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Area GAIN 50 k, 42 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 8 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +3 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side. 

The data suggests that after 2 or 3 days further area gain, there is a genuine prospect of the melting season getting underway.

29
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: March 14, 2019, 03:01:11 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent : 2,918,094 km2(March 13, 2019)

Days of relatively low gains continue. )Though note on Table Ant3 the year 2006)

Extent GAIN of 41k, 37k less than the average gain of 78 k on this day.
Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record for this day, behind 2017.

The Perils of Projections
-  Extent gain from minimum is 493k,  573k (54%) less than the average of 1,066k by this day,
- 6.4% of the freezing season done, with 187 days to average date of maximum (16 Sept),
- remaining average freeze of last 10 years gives a max of 17.92 million km2, 140k less than 2017 (record low max year).
______________________________________________________________________
I will only be posting occasional updates from now on unless something of note occurs.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 14, 2019, 11:57:50 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,150,474 km2(March 9, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent now just 46k less than current maximum on 12 March,
- Extent loss 46k, 51 k more than the average gain of 5k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 25 k (0.3%) more than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) it is 2 days after the maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 4  out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.271 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.271 million km2 on the 12th March is merely possibly(though more likely)  the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will gradually from around -0.5 degrees to +3 over the next 10 days, with the additional warmth mainly from the Pacific side.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?

Not all of us are eating crow pie, he said smugly.

31
I am currently holed up in Colorado, with enough supplies to weather the storm.
Klondike, it looks like you are in the middle of a record breaker called Ulmer.  Lots of articles in Wunderground.com

Winter Storm Ulmer became a bomb cyclone in the High Plains of southeastern Colorado on Wednesday, when its central pressure dropped 24 millibars in just 13 hours.

________________________________________________________________
The name Ulmer is a Norse baby name. In Norse the meaning of the name Ulmer is: Famous wolf.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 13, 2019, 07:24:02 PM »
Is JAXA extent data still unavailable?
Yes.
Last tweet from NIPR ......

33
Images at equinox attached.

Spring is coming to North America (and Europe), the snow will melt.

Asia still looking somewhat cold.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 13, 2019, 02:29:31 PM »
NSIDC Extent (5 day trailing average) will increase for at least the next 2 or 3 days simply because it is a trailing average. Same applies to ice area. After that it is in the hands of the ice Goddesses.
___________________________________________________________________________
Khione is the Greek goddess of snow, daughter of Boreas, god of the North Wind and Winter, and sister of Zethes and Calais. She is depicted as a goddess in the series, although in some myths she is visualized as a snow nymph.

In Norse mythology  Skaði was the beautiful and cold (no pun intended ) jotunn , a female jotunn (giant) and the  goddess associated with the skiing and winter .

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 13, 2019, 02:01:50 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,992,156 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,992,156    km2      
 99,538    km2   >   2010's average.
 478,661    k   >   2018
-396,654    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    55    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    44    k   gain
Central Seas__    9    k   gain
Other Seas___    3    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    14    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    24    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Area GAIN 55 k, 54 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 1 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will vary from +2.5 to -1 degrees over the next 10 days, with no real direction of travel except mostly a bit chilly, especially on the Atlantic Front.

All measures, area , extent, daily & 5 day averages, are at new maxima. It is difficult to impossible to assume JAXA data is not on a similar path. Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some days, and looking more like up than down...

36
I am currently holed up in Colorado, with enough supplies to weather the storm.
This storm - Storm Ulmer - is dead interesting as a tale of 2 halves.
To the West - SNOW
To the East - RAIN

It is a classic conflict twixt warmth and cold, and could be the last big one in the lower 48 of the USA for some time.

Wunderground.com has a good set of articles on the different parts of the storm and also a look at weather from next week.

Quote
Thursday's Severe Thunderstorm Forecast
Flooding Concerns in Plains and Midwest

In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rain will likely lead to areas of flash flooding and river flooding in parts of the Plains and Midwest this week. The heaviest rain is expected to fall from now through Thursday.

Flood watches have been issued by the National Weather Service from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwestward to Kansas and eastern Colorado.

Flood Alerts
A broad swath of the central and southern Plains, Mississippi Valley and mid-South is expected to receive 1 to 3 inches of rain on already-saturated ground through Friday.

As temperatures warm up, any lingering snowpack will melt, adding additional runoff onto frozen soils unable to absorb the water. It is advised to clear any snow and ice from storm drains before the heavy rain arrives to help reduce the risk of flooding.

Ice jams will also be a major concern on frozen rivers as mild temperatures cause the ice to break up, which could become clogged in river bends or against obstructions such as bridges. As a result, a water rise would occur and may flood locations upstream from the jam. When a jam breaks up, flooding can occur in downstream locations.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 12, 2019, 02:02:53 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,936,787 km2
         
Total Area         
 Total Area         
 12,936,787    km2      
 44,942    km2   >   2010's average.
 477,206    k   >   2018
-466,718    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    52    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    36    k   gain
Central Seas__    12    k   gain
Other Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    5    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    16    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Area GAIN 52 k, 52 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 0 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +1 to +0 degrees over the next 24 hours days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with no real direction of travel except mostly a bit chilly.

I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum . All measures, area , extent, daily, 5 day averages, are at new maxima. Difficult to see JAXA data not on a similar path.

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time , and looking more like up than down...

38
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: March 12, 2019, 01:11:04 PM »
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ as at 11 March 2019

In the last 5 days or so, precipitation was mostly well below average.
Accumulated SMB in the year to date is around 75 GT (circa 15 to 20%) below average.

The forecast for precipitation in the next week or so is for very low precipitation followed by in a few days by above average precipitation in the S.E. quadrant.

The contrast with North America is currently very great. However, there are signs for the remainder  of March of increased warmth meaning less snow and more rain..

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 11, 2019, 05:42:53 PM »
Does one use NSIDC daily extent or 5 day trailing average extent?

The NSIDC use the averaged value in their official announcements. See for example:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/03/the-2018-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/

Then 9k to go
date    NSIDC Daily extent   NSIDC 5 day extent
22/02/19   14.698   14.646
23/02/19   14.735   14.688
24/02/19   14.682   14.705
25/02/19   14.587   14.686
26/02/19   14.548   14.65
27/02/19   14.585   14.627
28/02/19   14.561   14.592
01/03/19   14.533   14.563
02/03/19   14.556   14.556
03/03/19   14.617   14.57
04/03/19   14.611   14.576
05/03/19   14.612   14.586
06/03/19   14.61   14.601
07/03/19   14.684   14.627
08/03/19   14.702   14.644
09/03/19   14.743   14.67
10/03/19   14.742   14.696

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 11, 2019, 05:25:24 PM »
Jaxa is still down this afternoon (UTC), but here's the latest from the NSIDC:
Does one use NSIDC daily extent or 5 day trailing average extent?

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 11, 2019, 03:07:36 PM »
Unusually low temps in the stratosphere at the North Pole persist.
But what is the significance thereof ?

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 11, 2019, 02:08:39 PM »
I think daylight savings ruins all the charts. CCIN has gone blank as well. Who needs Y2K when the monkeys change the clocks twice a year anyways for no apparent reason.

Not in Japan
Daylight Saving Time (DST) Not Observed in Year 2019. Tokyo currently observes Japan Standard Time (JST) all year. The previous DST change in Tokyo was on September 8, 1951.
Daylight Saving Time Changes 2019 in Tokyo, Japan
https://www.timeanddate.com/time/change/japan/tokyo

ps : https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current is up and running Ok

pps:Daylight saving time 2019 in United Kingdom will begin at 01:00 on
Sunday, 31 March
and ends at 02:00 on
Sunday, 27 October
All times are in United Kingdom Time.

ppps: Daylight saving time 2019 in Canada & United States of America began at 02:00 on
Sunday, 10 March
and ends at 02:00 on
Sunday, 3 November
All times are in Eastern Time.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 11, 2019, 01:56:50 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,885,159 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,885,159    km2      
-6,909    km2   <   2010's average.
 487,268    k   >   2018
-524,865    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    30    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    16    k   gain
Central Seas__    19    k   gain
Other Seas___   -5    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    8    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    8    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Area GAIN 30 k, 27 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 3 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to some warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum extent. See below.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Daily NSIDC Extent
             09/03/19   14.743
            10/03/19   14.742
.
.

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..

44
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: March 10, 2019, 07:40:25 PM »
As many of you know the DMI moved all their Greenland data products to the Polar Portal website (http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/)

I emailed them about the missing accumulated SMB map and their reply was that it isn't as popular as the anomaly map and therefore unlikely to make it over to PolarPortal. I find it dissapointing, but to brighten up my day I found their monthly raw data is freely available for research purposes. (currently Jan 1980 to Aug 2017)

So I think I produce the accumulated SMB maps myself all the way back to 1980 and create some long term SMB graphs (whole year Sep-Aug) and only the melt season (Jun-Aug). Is there anything you would like to see that's possible to create with monthly surface mass balance data?
I am greedy, - "I want it all, and I want it now"

The location of accumulated SMB is important - including the winter build-up. The anomaly this year is telling me where accumulated SMB is below and above average, but is not telling me where and how much snow has fallen. Obviously up North and uphill is likely to melt later and less strongly. So my cry is for at minimum the end of winter (May 31) accumulated SMB map. It gives the starting point for melt. Having a contour map "watermark" imposed upon it would also give an idea of how much accumulated SMB vs chances of melt. And then of course all the trends, SD etc.

I told you I was greedy. It's your fault, Tealight - you did the NH Snow / Albedo project so damn quickly and comprehensively that we now expect you to enact the US "SeaBees" mantra -
"the difficult you get now, the impossible a little later".

45
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« on: March 10, 2019, 04:43:18 PM »
"Things fall apart,
The Arch cannot hold,
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the Nares Strait."

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 10, 2019, 04:37:06 PM »
The Chukchi has grown back.

Not unexpectedly, but these are nervous times for those of us who called a February maximum!

More at: http://greatwhitecon.info/2019/03/the-2019-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-10

I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum extentDaily NSIDC Extent up by 38k to 14.740 million KM2, 5k greater than what was the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..

JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,150,474 km2(March 9, 2019) The Perils of Projections.

- Extent now just 44k less than current maximum on 22 Feb,
- Remaining ice gain in 5 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.195 million km2 .

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 10, 2019, 04:30:02 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 March 2019 (5 day trailing average)  12,854,701 km2
         
Total Area         
 12,854,701    km2      
-34,784    km2   <   2010's average.
 527,506    k   >   2018
-554,194    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total gain/loss    20    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas__    22    k   gain
Other Seas___   -8    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Area GAIN 20 k, 15 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 5 k on this day.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to some warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.


I no longer have to wonder if the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new NSIDC maximum extent. See below.
_____________________________________________________________
ps: Daily NSIDC Extent up by 38k to 14.740 million KM2, 5k greater than what was the current 2019 maximum of 14.735 million km2 on the 23 Feb..

Extent is still likely to dither up and down for some time..

48
Wunderground.com says the USA is going to get a classic slow-moving March storm next week.

https://www.wunderground.com/news/storms/winter/news/2019-03-08-march-system-severe-flooding-snow-wind-west-plains-south

The balance between rain and snow is going to be interesting. The first image from Wunderground shows a lot of area with rain and less with snow. The 2nd image GFS shows more or less the same. The last image shows that warmth in North America is moving North as does the sun.

So my little prediction that belongs to me for North America (NA) is that by next weekend
- a goodly part of the current thin snow cover in the more southerly latitudes of the USA will be gone, i.e. SCE will be heading South (see image 4.png),
- NA-SWE (snow mass) will either be dithering around the max or will show a loss.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 10, 2019, 01:12:27 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT : 14,150,474 km2(March 9, 2019)

Through (justifiable?) obstinacy the data below assume the maximum has not yet occurred...
- Extent now just 44k less than current maximum on 22 Feb,
- Extent GAIN 33k, 69 k more than the average LOSS of 36k on this day.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Freezing to date from minimum is 4 k (0.0%) less than the 10 year average extent gain,
- On average (last 10 years) 98 % of the increase in extent from min to max is done.
- On average (last 10 years) 2 days to maximum (11th March)

The Perils of Projections.
Remaining ice gain in 3  5 out of the previous 10 years still gives a resulting maximum of MORE than 14.195 million km2 . i.e. Extent at 14.195 million km2 on the 22nd February is merely possibly the 2019 maximum. It is the time of year when daily extent gains and losses could cause the maximum to remain uncertain until the end of March.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will reduce from +2.5 to +0 degrees over the next 3 days or so, then in the range  -1 to +1 to day 10, with the Pacific side  and Baffin bay tending to some warmth and the Atlantic front and the Okhotsk tending to cold.

I am obviously more confident the cold on the Atlantic Front will be sufficient to allow significant ice gain to make a new JAXA maximum extent, given lack of matching extreme warmth on the Pacific side.

Still not a day for Neven to make the 2019 Melting Season thread "sticky" ?
[/quote]

50
The shape of things to come now ?

California family furious after hospital uses robot to tell grandfather he's dying

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/mar/09/california-robot-tells-grandfather-dying

What a shabby world we are making.

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