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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: Today at 10:53:09 PM »
The (apparent?) low concentration blob appeared on the 27th May. Each day it's got bigger and bigger. It is that persistence that persuades me that even if it is just melt ponds, real damage is being done to the ice at well North of 85.. We are at the peak period of insolation.

In June aren't clear skies and forecast warmth just as good as stormy weather to melt out ice?

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 03:25:19 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 30-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,625,331 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,625,331    km2      
-470,981    km2   <   2010's average.
-160,497    km2   <   2019
-936,402    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -23    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas___    4    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -19    k   loss
Central Arctic_    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 23 k, 40 k less than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 471 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 936 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 174 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 160 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
A modest increase in sea ice area loss, while extent loss accelerates.

But starting the coming Tuesday afternoon warmth spreads north in Central Canada, starting with the Hudson and reaching the Central Canadian Arctic shore by the weekend, with Southern Greenland perhaps getting very warm on occasion. This is in addition to the Siberian heat and above zero temperatures over much of the Arctic Ocean continuing.

I predict a lot of sea ice reduced to liquid. Flaming June?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 11:39:36 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,882,933 KM2 as at 30-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 51k, 3 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 54k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,565 k, 489 k, 15.9% more than the 10 year average of 3,076 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  402 k MORE than 2016,
- Extent is  50 k MORE than 2019,
_____________________________________________
On average 30.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 107 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.01 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A modest increase in daily sea ice extent loss,but still (just) below average.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 30, 2020, 03:53:44 PM »
It is quite usual to see AMSR2 images showing false areas of low concentration as the melt season gets into high gear. It is not so usual to see them persist.

Twixt Laptev and the North pole, up to North of 85, such an area appeared on May 27. Since then it has got bigger and stronger

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 30, 2020, 03:20:20 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 29-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,648,400 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,648,400    km2      
-510,841    km2   <   2010's average.
-196,804    km2   <   2019
-971,699    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -4    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -11    k   loss
Central Seas___    8    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    5    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -20    k   loss
Central Arctic_    12    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 4 k, 59 k less than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 511 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 972 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 134 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 197 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
Area loss screeches to a halt; extent loss keeps on truckin'.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic energy balance
« on: May 30, 2020, 01:09:16 PM »
Nice to see one of my graphs still in circulation.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 30, 2020, 11:13:52 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,934,088 KM2 as at 29-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 19 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,514 k, 491 k, 16.3% more than the 10 year average of 3,022 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  55 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 30.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 108 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.01 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
May ends with a whimper

8
The politics / Re: World War Trump
« on: May 29, 2020, 10:25:37 PM »
Nothing there to say here cometh the hot war, but yes, plenty to say the chill in the air is more pronounced - the inevitable cold war approaches.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: May 29, 2020, 05:08:23 PM »
An Old Lesson re-learnt - To survive The Empire must give The Peepul their Bread & Circuses.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/29/take-that-covid-19-you-cant-stop-the-compulsory-emotional-juggernaut-that-is-footy

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 29, 2020, 03:13:59 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 28-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,652,338 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,652,338    km2      
-570,047    km2   <   2010's average.
-254,704    km2   <   2019
-1,022,681    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -44    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -33    k   loss
Central Seas___   -11    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    2    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -13    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 44 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average loss of 67 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 570 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1023 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 85 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 255 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
Big drop in sea ice area loss while extent loss up a bit.
Sea ice loss in the Central Arctic Sea halts.

11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 29, 2020, 01:47:52 PM »
Getting warm(ish) up there?

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 29, 2020, 01:28:43 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,958,548 KM2 as at 28-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 35k, 11 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,489 k, 510 k, 17.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,979 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  17 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 29.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 109 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.99 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A modest increase in daily extent loss but still below average. Will May end with a flourish or a whimper?

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 29, 2020, 01:11:38 PM »
As far as the world data is concerned, Covid-19 is not going away. If anything the daily increase in new cases is increasing.

14
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: May 28, 2020, 11:03:51 PM »
How did the richest country in the world get itself into such a goddam-awful mess, of which the Minneapolis police fuck-up is merely the latest manifestation?

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 28, 2020, 04:51:57 PM »
NSIDC HIGH ARCTIC SEAS - ICE AREA:  7,567,736 KM2 as at 27-May-2020

- Area loss on this day 36k, 2 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,190 k, 418 k, 54.2% more than the 10 year average of 772 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -73 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is  -29 k LESS than 2016
______________________________-
On average 15.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 110 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.55 million km2, 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 2.07 million km2.
________________________________________________________

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 28, 2020, 03:16:31 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 27-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,696,195 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,696,195    km2      
-593,502    km2   <   2010's average.
-270,055    km2   <   2019
-1,033,909    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -70    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -36    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 70 k, 0 k less than the 2010's average loss of 70 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 594 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1034 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 81 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 270 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         

17
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Data as at 27 May 2020
SMB cumulative gain still dithering around the current max of 500 GT

The very large melt on 22nd May did not happen - DMI revised the data.

You can see from the maps where at lower altitudes precipitation during the warmer months is likely to be a mixture of snow and rain.

No significant acceleration in melt likely in the next 5 days - but after that GFS says maybe.
Ditto for precipitation.
__________________________________

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 28, 2020, 10:08:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,993,348 KM2 as at 27-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 23 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,454 k, 521 k, 17.8% more than the 10 year average of 2,933 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -19 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 29.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 110 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Another well below average extent loss despite very warm temperatures over much of the Arctic yesterday.  I revert to normal mode - i.e. confused. Will the NSIDC data later today confuse me even more?

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 27, 2020, 04:07:10 PM »
The sea ice area in the Central Arctic Sea (which extends over 3.22 million km2 of ocean) has declined from highest in the satellite record on April 16 (#42) to lowest in the satellite record on the 26th May (#1).

Whether such strong sea ice area losses can be maintained from the current sea ice area of 3.03 million km2, is, of course, another story.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 27, 2020, 03:22:25 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 26-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,765,860 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,765,860    km2      
-593,490    km2   <   2010's average.
-253,355    km2   <   2019
-1,026,468    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -83    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -49    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -9    k   loss
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 83 k, -13 k more than the 2010's average loss of 70 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 593 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1026 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 85 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -253 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
The NSIDC daily extent dropped by 166k on this day. Perhaps the slowdown in extent sea ice loss is over, especially given many predictions of mayhem in the melting thread, and it must be said, quite an awesome 5 day forecast from GFS.

21
How about somewhere a long way away from the Continental United States ?

Legal status of territories
See also: Insular area
The U.S. has had territories since its beginning.[25] According to federal law, the term "United States" (used in a geographical sense) means "the continental United States, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the United States Virgin Islands".[26] Since 1986, the Northern Mariana Islands have also been considered part of the U.S.[26] A 2007 executive order included American Samoa in the U.S. "geographical extent", as reflected in the Federal Register.[27] American Samoa and Jarvis Island are in the Southern Hemisphere, all other U.S. territories are in the Northern Hemisphere.

22
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/

North America - the snow will go but that cold blob over Central Northern Canada is really impressive by its strength & persistence.

Arctic Eurasia - the fast melt of the remaining snow looks set to continue at a rapid pace.
_______________________________________
It looks to me that maybe much of the snow on the Tibetan plateau may melt in the coming 10 days.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 27, 2020, 10:32:30 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,017,755 KM2 as at 26-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 8k, 35 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,430 k, 544 k, 18.9% more than the 10 year average of 2,886 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -46 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 29.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 111 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.95 million km2, 0.78 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
It's as if the Arctic sea ice hasn't noticed how warm it is up there.

24
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 26, 2020, 08:10:02 PM »
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

May update from the US EIA out today. But the data is pre-Covid apart from Petroleum and Coal.

Graphs attached.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 26, 2020, 03:31:41 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 25-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,849,016 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,849,016    km2      
-580,578    km2   <   2010's average.
-232,544    km2   <   2019
-1,014,532    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -83    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -27    k   loss
Central Seas___   -56    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -6    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -5    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -18    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 83 k, -20 k more than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 581 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1015 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 87 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -233 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
For the 5-day average sea ice area loss to drop by 34k means the one-day sea ice area loss on this day must be minimal. Is the next instalment to come another swap, extent loss galloping ahead while area loss slows to a crawl?

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 26, 2020, 01:05:26 PM »
There was a lot of comment on the unusual loss of snow in Siberia adding to the grim prospects for sea ice bordering Russia.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current says -  Nyet.

Apart from Central Siberia snow in Arctic Eurasia is at or above average - especially in Norway/Western Siberia & far eastern Siberia. Snow melt is certainly progressing at an extreme rate but from above average snow mass (SWE) and snow cover extent (SCE). I take no comfort from that as the ice seems to be disintegrating at a rapid rate of knots anyway without this added impetus.

And the snow will probably be gone over Arctic Eurasia to all intents and purposes in a week.

27
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 26, 2020, 12:37:57 PM »
DMI says that in the last few days it's been warm enough for a little bit of melt and even a bit of run-off (i.e. liquid H2O) into the Nares Strait

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 26, 2020, 12:19:50 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  21,867,032 KM2 as at 25-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 85k, 61 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 5.15 million km2, 0.91 million km2, 15.0% less than the 10 year average gain of 6.06 million km2.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.94 million km2 MORE than 2019,

On average 66.5% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 163 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.92 million km2, 1.16 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
However, before that there is also the false maximum in late June or early July, followed by the false minimum in August/September before the “maximum maximum” for the year.

29
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: May 26, 2020, 12:08:54 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,840,929 KM2 as at 25-May-2020

- Extent gain on this day 110k, 30 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 80k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 8.08 million km2, 0.24 million km2, (2.8%) less than the 10 year average of 8.32 million km2.
- Extent is at position #17 in the satellite record of which 9 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  041 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  956 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  579 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  997 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  55 k LESS than the 1980's Average

- On average 52.1% of ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 118 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2020 of 18.50 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2017 record low maximum of 18.06 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
In the last week daily sea ice extent gains well above average.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 26, 2020, 11:48:04 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,026,103 KM2 as at 25-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 25k, 31 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,422 k, 579 k, 20.4% more than the 10 year average of 2,842 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -56 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 28.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 112 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.92 million km2, 0.74 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A third day of below average sea ice extent loss while sea ice area drops like a stone.
But based on the GFS weather forecasts I still say extent has gotta play catch up sooner rather than later.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 25, 2020, 03:51:30 PM »
Seems to me NSIDC showing lots of shades of blue where this early one might expect more white.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 25, 2020, 03:35:21 PM »
Peripheral Seas Area projections


Sea ice area @ 24th May                                                2.22 million km2.
Average area loss from now to minimum (last 10 years)    2.36 million km2.

i.e. maximum sea ice area loss from now MUST be lower than average.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 25, 2020, 03:23:03 PM »
Sea Ice Area in the 7 central seas of the High Arctic now LOWEST in the satellite record (just).

Sea ice area of the Central Arctic Sea (aka CAB) down from highest (#42) on April 16 to 5th lowest on 4th May.

Sea ice area of the 7 Peripheral seas (only) 2nd lowest.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 25, 2020, 03:14:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 24-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 9,932,382 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 9,932,382    km2      
-560,329    km2   <   2010's average.
-208,080    km2   <   2019
-999,807    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -118    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -50    k   loss
Central Seas___   -68    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -17    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -9    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -22    k   loss
Laptev_______   -18    k   loss
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 118 k, -53 k more than the 2010's average loss of 65 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 560 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1000 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 95 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -208 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         

Is the sensor being fooled - e.g. by melt ponds? If so, it is very persistent and widespread
Sea ice area loss greater in the High Arctic Seas than in the Peripheral Seas for the 4th day in a row.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: River ice and Discharge
« on: May 25, 2020, 02:11:49 PM »
I did not find way but saved one graph in 2019.

Another source shows graphs for 2017-2020, 13-years average, min and max.

+10 metres in one day. It sounds dangerous.
And is normal!

That site (e.g. https://allrivers.info/gauge/lena-gms-dzhardzhan )  is magic. I access using google. Google asks me if I want to translate. I click English, then on each page I access after a few seconds the english arrives.

Just had a quick look, but could get lost in it for hours. e.g. first iage.

And attached is some graphed flow data from an old science paper (2006)

36
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: May 25, 2020, 01:03:53 PM »
There isn't a thread for Greenland's "79 North Glacier", so I'm posting here. I expect AbruptSLR picked it up and posted it on the SL thread as the process described here is replicated in Antarctica?

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/how-the-ocean-is-gnawing-away-at-glaciers.html
How the ocean is gnawing away at glaciers
[03. February 2020]
The Greenland Ice Sheet is melting faster today than it did only a few years ago. The reason: it’s not just melting on the surface – but underwater, too. AWI researchers have now found an explanation for the intensive melting on the glacier’s underside, and published their findings in the journal Nature Geoscience.


The glaciers are melting rapidly: Greenland’s ice is now melting seven times faster than in the 1990s – an alarming discovery, since climate change will likely intensify this melting in the future, causing the sea level to rise more rapidly. Accordingly, researchers are now working to better understand the underlying mechanisms of this melting. Ice melts on the surface because it is exposed to the sun and rising temperatures. But it has now also begun melting from below – including in northeast Greenland, which is home to several ‘glacier tongues’. Each tongue is a strip of ice that has slid down into the ocean and floats on the water – without breaking off from the land ice. The longest ice tongue, part of the ‘79° North Glacier’, is an enormous 80 km long. Over the past 20 years, it has experienced a dramatic loss of mass and thickness, because it’s been melting not just on the surface, but also and especially from below.

Too much heat from the ocean
A team led by oceanographer Janin Schaffer from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) in Bremerhaven has now identified the source of this intense underwater melting. The conclusions of their study, which the experts have just released in the journal Nature Geoscience, are particularly unsettling because the melting phenomenon they discovered isn’t unique to the 79° North Glacier, which means it could produce similar effects elsewhere.

For the purposes of the study, the researchers conducted the first extensive ship-based survey of the ocean floor near the glacier, which revealed the presence of a two-kilometre-wide trough, from the bottom of which comparatively warm water from the Atlantic is channelled directly toward the glacier. But that’s not all: in the course of a detailed analysis of the trough, Janin Schaffer spotted a bathymetric sill, a barrier that the water flowing over the seafloor has to overcome. Once over the hump, the water rushes down the back of the sill – and under the ice tongue. Thanks to this acceleration of the warm water mass, large amounts of heat from the ocean flow past the tongue every second, melting it from beneath. To make matters worse, the layer of warm water that flows toward the glacier has grown larger: measured from the seafloor, it now extends 15 metres higher than it did just a few years ago. “The reason for the intensified melting is now clear,” Schaffer says. “Because the warm water current is larger, substantially more warmth now makes its way under the ice tongue, second for second.”

To make matters worse, the layer of warm water that flows toward the glacier has grown larger: measured from the seafloor, it now extends 15 metres higher than it did just a few years ago. “The reason for the intensified melting is now clear,” Schaffer says. “Because the warm water current is larger, substantially more warmth now makes its way under the ice tongue, second for second.”

Other regions are also affected
In order to determine whether the phenomenon only manifests at the 79° North Glacier or also at other sites, the team investigated a neighbouring region on Greenland’s eastern coast, where another glacier, the Zachariæ Isstrøm, juts out into the sea, and where a large ice tongue had recently broken off from the mainland. Working from the surface of an ice floe, the experts measured water temperatures near the ocean floor. According to Schaffer: “The readings indicate that here, too, a bathymetric sill near the seafloor accelerates warm water toward the glacier. Apparently, the intensive melting on the underside of the ice at several sites throughout Greenland is largely produced by the form of the seafloor.” These findings will ultimately help her more accurately gauge the total amount of meltwater that the Greenland Ice Sheet loses every year.

Original publication
Janin Schaffer, Torsten Kanzow, Wilken-Jon von Appen, Luisa von Albedyll, Jan Erik Arndt and David H. Roberts: "Bathymetry constrains ocean heat supply to Greenland’s largest glacier tongue", Nature Geoscience, 3 February 2020,
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-019-0529-x - paywalled.

37
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: May 25, 2020, 09:30:53 AM »
Back on-topic...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/25/many-will-starve-locusts-devour-crops-and-livelihoods-in-pakistan
'Many will starve': locusts devour crops and livelihoods in Pakistan
Farmers faced with worst plague in recent history say they have been left to fend for themselves

Quote
Farmers across Pakistan are suffering the worst plague of locusts in recent history, which has caused billions of dollars in damage and led to fears of long-term food shortages.

The Pakistani government declared a national emergency this year after the locusts began to decimate winter crops. The first swarm came from the United Arab Emirates in mid-2019, and in the next few weeks time a new infestation is expected to arrive from Iran.

Muhammad said he had no means of dealing with locusts and that the government was in “deep slumber” about farmers’ plight. “The government is not doing anything. It’s a helpless situation,” he said.

One of the worst hit provinces is Sindh, where Moti Lal said his livelihood was destroyed last week in one fell swoop.

“All my green crops, such as wheat and mustard, were attacked and ruined by locusts,” he said. “We had borrowed 40,000 rupees [£400] through micro-financing schemes to invest in farming. Now, all that amount is gone.”

Pakistan will incur losses of about £2bn in winter crops, such as wheat, and a further £2.3bn in the summer crops being planted now, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Ismail Rahoo, state minister of agriculture for Sindh, described the plague as a “dangerous and catastrophic threat to the economy, agriculture and food security in Pakistan”.

“This year it will be ten times worse than last year. They are attacking from three sides,” he said. “The locusts and their eggs have now covered 50,000 square kilometres of farmland. We are expecting them to infest more than 5m hectares. And they are not just attacking Sindh province, but also the agricultural areas of Punjab and Balochistan.”

Heavy rains on the Arabian peninsula in 2019 triggered explosive growth in the locust population, and they began causing problems in India, Pakistan and a number of African countries last year. The second generation is 20 times bigger. Locusts move in swarms of up to 50 million, can travel 90 miles a day, and lay as many as 1,000 eggs per square metre of land.

38
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: May 25, 2020, 09:16:44 AM »
There is at least one "population" thread (possibly two or more) where this better belongs. I recommend to move it there.
I should note that it seems widespread agriculture in Africa did not begin with European colonization, but much earlier.
Some relevant info is found here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Africa
In addition, are you sure about this European-induced shift from communal tribes to single-family units?
I am totally convinced that the family unit existed in Africa long before European colonisation. This is not to say that the influence of missionaries was, on the whole, a disaster. The colonising governments were not interested in restructuring society - they were interested in extracting wealth.

The main driver of increased population was the highly successful mainly UN vaccination programmes for the under-fives that greatly reduced child mortality while not reducing birth rates.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 25, 2020, 08:09:13 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,051,320 KM2 as at 24-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 34k, 24 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,396 k, 610 k, 21.9% more than the 10 year average of 2,786 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -54 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 28.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 113 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.89 million km2, 0.71 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
A 2nd day of below average extent loss, but temperature anomalies of between +2.5 & +3.5 still suggest the probability of above average extent loss in the 5-10 days to come.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 07:58:42 PM »

Slater's model has picked up the current preconditioning  and thinks it is favourable for strong melting way into July.

It predicts 7.34 m km² for July 13th, currently nosediving ...

LOL. The ice apocalypse is a cottage industry. I'll take the over.  8)

PS - There's a dedicated thread for Slater and another dedicated 2020 prediction thread.
Clever fellow, that Slater - keeps at it even though he's dead.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 07:12:28 PM »
The max I gave in the above post was max area in mid-Sep, not total area of the sea, as determined by max over the whole AMSR2 record (in km2). Note the Wipneus map, previously used by Chris Reynolds, was taken from the now-defunct Cryosphere Today (CT) website.

CAB: 4,432,026
Chukchi:  606,637
Beaufort:  529,475
ESS:  934,240
Laptev:  736,842
Kara:  885,647
CAA:  769,964
So here is a table comparing the CryosphereToday-Chris Reynolds-Wipneus sea areas with the NSIDC-Meier-Stroeve-Fetterer-2007 sea areas.

Just a pity for people like me we haven't got just one.
_________________________________-
ps: & Now the scientist have done the same for the gold standard definition of drainage basins of the Greenland & Antarctic ice sheets (per Zwally 2012, per Rignot 2016).

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 03:34:43 PM »
In recent days sea ice area losses in the Central Seas greater than sea ice area loss in the Peripheral Seas.
___________________________
see data thread for details.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 24, 2020, 03:18:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 23-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,050,116 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,050,116    km2      
-507,742    km2   <   2010's average.
-150,790    km2   <   2019
-946,377    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -111    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -45    k   loss
Central Seas___   -66    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -17    k   loss
Laptev_______   -24    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 111 k, -49 k more than the 2010's average loss of 62 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 508 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 946 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 140 k more than 2016         
- 2020 Area is -151 k less than 2019
         
___________________________________________         
This rate of daily sea ice area loss usually starts in mid-June.
Note that the rate of melt is now greater in the Central Seas

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 24, 2020, 01:03:32 PM »
Average AMSR2 area contribution in mid-Sep (sorted, unrounded, km2):
CAB: 3,300,562 (max 3,606,190)
Some people might get confused  because
- the CAB area in the NSIDC analysis is 3.224 million km2,
- the area of the CAB used by Wipneus is larger (the surrounding seas smaller).

And this is where I get confused - I thought the CAB area used by Wipneus was around 3.45 million km2, not the 3.60 million you quote. Do you think you could post the sea areas as used by Wipneus. I think you've done it before (or someone else has).

ps: The Barents, Kara Seas & CAA boundaries are the same, it is the Laptev, ESS, Chukhi & Beaufort Sea areas are lower in the Wipneus analysis, as NSIDC (Stroeve et al) moved the boundaries north by a series of straight lines along 80 North.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 24, 2020, 12:48:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,085,705 KM2 as at 23-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 46k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 48k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,362 k, 633 k, 23.2% more than the 10 year average of 2,729 k.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- Extent is  -62 k LESS than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 27.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 114 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.86 million km2, 0.69 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Despite the slightly lower than average daily extent loss on this day, I see nothing but the probability of above average daily extent and area losses during the next 5 to 10 days.

46
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: May 23, 2020, 07:54:57 PM »
In the case of the Michigan dam inadequacy, the dams are not even owned by the public.

https://www.mlive.com/news/saginaw-bay-city/2020/05/troubled-dam-breaks-sends-floodwaters-hurtling-toward-midland.html

The problem in the US is near complete regulatory capture and lack of ownership / responsibility for public welfare. The problems with the Edenville Dam were well documented, but the buck doesn't stop anywhere.
Sometimes it feels like that as we learn more & more about what needs fixing the less we are able to fix it.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/23/us-dams-michigan-report-infrastructure

Thousands of run-down US dams would kill people if they failed, study finds
17% of 91,000 US dams classified with ‘high hazard’ potential

Neglected infrastructure in focus after Michigan dam failures


https://nid.sec.usace.army.mil/ords/f

47
Consequences / Re: World of 3000
« on: May 23, 2020, 07:22:48 PM »
Jeez man! Imagine William the Conqueror, or Sweyn Forkbeard, or Otto I or Emperor Taizu or anyone else imagining what life would be in a 1000 yrs. They couldn't imagine this, they wouldn't even be close. The problems of their times are nonexistent, most of the people now work jobs he couldn't imagine would exist, etc etc.

 We can imagine even less what the world will look like in a 1000 yrs
1,000 A.D. sounds quite likely.
Science the stuff of ancient legends (& locked in the vaults of whatever religion rules),
Human Life nasty, brutish & short, but other life on earth some way to renewed vigour.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: May 23, 2020, 06:38:03 PM »

... as for the "slow down", well that has been repeatedly discussed and I for one have not seen any convincing evidence of there being anything other than an ongoing linear reduction in sea ice with random annual fluctuations. Choosing the record year as the starting point of a hypothetical slow down tastes surprisingly like cherry picking.
Discussed ad nauseam

49
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 23, 2020, 06:31:44 PM »
World...
5.3 million cases so far, increasing at 100k per day,
0.34 million dead, 5,000 new deaths per day.

UK study said that 17% of Londoners had antibodies, 5% of rest of the population had antibodies.
i.e. in the UK only 1 in 14 people with proven exposure.

People starting to be on the move again.
Hospital staff are holding their breath.

Carelessness costs lives?

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 23, 2020, 05:52:10 PM »
ps: I'm feeling smug - I wrote the following sentence on the 11th May...
Watch this space for the unfolding of the Great 2020 Mid-May Melting Event ?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg263728.html#msg263728

And this is what happens when the people making the predictions actually know what they're talking about! Good job, Gerontocrat!
Having been quite unprepared for the extreme melting on Greenland on 22nd May, (I predicted continuing modest melt), I think it's more a case of that even "The Farmers' Almanac" gets it right sometimes.

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