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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 06:53:17 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK Data 7 day trailing average
- new daily cases 18k,
- daily deaths 136.

recent daily data strongly suggest this will rise by a lot, especially as testing is increasing.
In my local area, rural & small towns,  hospitalisations rising very steeply.

Italy Data 7 day trailing average
- new daily cases nearly 10k,
- daily deaths 66.

recent daily data strongly suggest this will rise by a lot.


2
Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science and the Environment - count the ways... This Guardian article gets up to 75.. If you are into depression give it a read.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/oct/20/trump-us-dirtier-planet-warmer-75-ways
75 ways Trump made America dirtier and the planet warmer
In the past four years, Trump has shredded environmental protections for American lands, animals and people

Quote
"I want crystal clean water and air."

That's what Donald Trump said in the first chaotic presidential debate with Joe Biden. But there is scant evidence of that desire in the actions of his administration, which has spent nearly four years systematically dismantling core environmental protections, some of which stretch back decades.

Experts agree that the climate crisis's most destructive manifestations, on display in a particularly difficult year for the US, barely scratch the surface of the catastrophes to come. Yet the president appears unmoved by the enormous wildfires, devastating hurricanes, widespread water problems and persistent air pollution that disproportionately blights black and Latino communities. His administration has scrapped climate regulations, rolled back clean water rules and loosened pollution standards. Protections for public land and threatened species have been shrunk while new oil pipelines and coal mining have been encouraged.

then follows a list of ever-increasing stupidity and recklessness and (words fail me).

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 02:25:18 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 19-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,089,469 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,089,469    km2      
-1,017,439    km2   <   2010's average.
-353,761    km2   <   2019
-2,056,658    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    47    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain
Central Seas___    38    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    7    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____    25    k   gain
CAA_________   -7    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 47 k, 65 k less than the 2010's average gain of 112 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 1,017 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 2,057 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 170 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 354 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 593 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 19-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,251,325 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 46 k, 82 k less than the 2010's average gain of 128k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,324 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,417 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 644 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 222 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 793 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 01:34:01 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

World and USA graphs attached.

We are not in a good place.


5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 01:15:14 PM »
JAXA Data

The 7 day trailing average of daily extent gain shows clearly why 2020 is currently at a record low.

The plume of ice extent from previous years remaining extent gains shows the nearly 4 million km2 wide range of possible outcomes from the previous 10 years,

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 12:43:22 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,274,459 KM2 as at 19-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 43k, 51 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 94k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.56 million km2, 1.66 million km2, 20.2% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.21 million km2.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  -0.11 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 90.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 16 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.15 million km2, 0.39 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. Extent losses finished at the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
Only very slow Antractic extent losses prevent global sea ice extent mving from 2nd lowest to lowest in the satellite record.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size

7
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: Today at 12:30:20 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,208,308 KM2 as at 19-Oct-2020

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 22 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 46k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.65 million km2, 0.13 million km2, (17%) less than the 10 year average of 0.78 million km2.
- Extent is at position #29 in the satellite record of which 16 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  947 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  574 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  578 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  326 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  258 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 4.9% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 125 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.95 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
______________________________________________
Melting continues at a slow pace.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 11:47:21 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  5,066,151 KM2 as at 19-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 66k, 74 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 140k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,511 k, which is 883 k, 37% less than the 10 year average of 2,394 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  434 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  939 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  1,064 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  925 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,577 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 24.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 143 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.64 million km2, 1.24 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
________________________________________________________
Modest upticks in daily extent gain in the last 2 days.
Since 2007,every year's remaining freeze would lead to a record low maximum -except 2019-20.

Sea ice extent is 1.577 million km2 less than the 2010's average. - that is the area of France+Germany+Poland+UK, or more than twice the area of Texas.
That is an awful lot of ice gone missing.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

9
Consequences / Re: Places becoming more livable
« on: October 19, 2020, 07:13:01 PM »
Three Places That Will Actually Benefit From Climate Change
https://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2020/10/19/three_places_that_will_actually_benefit_from_climate_change.html
The three places are:
1. Northern Minnesota and Michigan's Upper Peninsula.
2. The Nordic Region.
3. Canada.
I would say most places north of 40N
I guess "Places becoming more livable"  means for humans and somespecies that can move north.

For many species with specialised adaptations for cold climates it's going to be "game over".

And maybe large areas of low-lying tundra are going to become WaterWorld.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 19, 2020, 05:24:39 PM »
Of more relevant and topical, interest are the veiled threats on Friday to cut the UK out of the  €2.5 billion EU energy market; unless the UK does as it is told.

Apparently the EU does not want to buy our renewable energy or sell us theirs.  Perhaps the remaining HVDC links will not be built between France and the UK?

This is how politics impacts renewable energy.

If you were standing on the outside, looking in, considering energy links with the EU to balance supplies and go totally renewable; what would you be thinking?
I am thinking that at the height of the Cold War, there were pipelines transmitting natural gas from The Soviet Union & The Warsw Pact into Western Europe**

And things are getting so bad that allies will not transmit power between each other ?
(Allies - NATO, OSCE etc etc etc etc)

Quelle un load of merde.

____________________________________________________________
** The Living Daylights - 1987
James Bond is assigned to aid the defection of a KGB officer, General Georgi Koskov, covering his escape from a concert hall in Bratislava, Czechoslovakia during intermission. During the mission, Bond notices that the KGB sniper assigned to prevent Koskov's escape is the attractive blonde female cellist from the orchestra, and deduces that she is not a professional assassin. Disobeying his orders to kill the sniper, he instead shoots the rifle from her hands, then uses the Trans-Siberian Pipeline to smuggle Koskov across the border into Austria and then on to Britain.

Trans-Siberian Pipeline - History

The pipeline project was proposed in 1978 as an export pipeline from Yamburg gas field, but was later changed to the pipeline from Urengoy field, which was already in use. In July 1981, a consortium of German banks, led by Deutsche Bank, and the AKA Ausfuhrkredit GmbH agreed to provide 3.4 billion Deutsche Mark in credits for the compressor stations. Later finance agreements were negotiated with a group of French banks and the Japan Export-Import Bank (JEXIM). In 1981-1982, contracts were signed with compressors and pipes suppliers Creusot-Loire, John Brown Engineering, Nuovo Pignone, AEG-Telefunken, Mannesmann, Dresser Industries, and Japan Steel Works. Pipe-layers were bought from Caterpillar Inc. and Komatsu.[1]

The pipeline was constructed in 1982-1984. It complemented the transcontinental gas transportation system Western Siberia-Western Europe which existed since 1973. The official inauguration ceremony took place in France.[2]

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: October 19, 2020, 03:41:00 PM »
A-Team's Tale of Two halves" - observations (continued)

I attach the sea ice extent and area graphs of the Central Arctic region - 3.224 million km2. Extent is 150k less than 2012, and 200k less than the 2010's average. Area is 2nd lowest, 2016 lowest.
The questions are - how slow to freeze and will freezing be complete?

And a prediction, NSIDC October average extent will be at least a record low by 250k, at leat 750k km2 (9 years) lower than the linear trend value.

Will November be the catch-up month? (or December, or like 2016, not at all?)


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: October 19, 2020, 03:14:11 PM »
A-Team's Tale of Two halves" - observations (continued)

As the freezing of the Beaufort completes, and even if the Chukchi freeze continues to be fast, then any further delay to freezing of the High Arctic seas from the ESS to the Barents is going to push Arctic sea ice extent and area further into uncharted territory.

The SST anomalies map above show that there is plenty of above average surface ocean heat, and A-team plus others convince me, at any rate, a compromised Halocline makes ocean heat at greater depth available to resist surface freeze.

Certainly the extent graphs for the Barents, Kara and Laptev show zero extent increases, while for the ESS extent growth is slow.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: October 19, 2020, 02:44:37 PM »
I was fascinated by A-team's analysis of freezing in the High Arctic being "a tale of two halves", which if you haven't read it is at....

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3299.msg290364.html#msg290364

So I've been looking at the graphs from NSIDC data. My first observation is that the very fast Beaufort freeze will end soon - because in a few days it will probably be complete. The question is then - will the Chukchi freeze take up the slack? It is freezing fast now, but in A-tem's lower half. Will high SST's at the Paciific end slow Chukchi re-freeze down?

I attach the Beaufort and Chukchi sea ice extent graphs, plus SST anomalies maps from DMI for October 18 2020 and October 10 2019 (the white areas being ice covered).

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 19, 2020, 02:12:16 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 18-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 4,042,183 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 4,042,183    km2      
-952,257    km2   <   2010's average.
-311,972    km2   <   2019
-1,988,501    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    50    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    7    k   gain
Central Seas___    43    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    12    k   gain
Beaufort_____    27    k   gain
CAA_________   -10    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 50 k, 54 k less than the 2010's average gain of 104 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 952 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,989 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 146 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 312 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 448 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 18-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,204,839 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 44 k, 81 k less than the 2010's average gain of 125k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,242 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,355 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 589 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 169 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 647 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

15
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 19, 2020, 01:05:06 PM »
"It ain't half hot, mum". Two bits of data that do not sit well together?

Quote
Phoenix is the fastest-growing city in the country, according to newly released estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Phoenix welcomed 25,288 new residents between 2017 and 2018 — more than any other American city. Phoenix remains the fifth most-populous city with a population of 1,660,272, according to Census data.23 May 2019

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/14/phoenix-record-heat-100-degrees/
Phoenix has hit 100 degrees on record-breaking half of the days in 2020

Quote
Oct. 14, 2020 at 11:18 p.m. GMT+1
The unrelenting and unprecedented heat that scorched Phoenix all summer, setting countless records, has carried over into the fall. Now it has set another blistering milestone: the most 100-degree days ever observed in a calendar year.

On Wednesday, the mercury in Phoenix climbed to at least 100 degrees for the 144th time in 2020, surpassing 143 days in 1989 for the most instances on record.

Half of the days (144 out of 288) of the year so far, equivalent to 20.6 weeks, have hit 100 degrees. A few more such days are likely.

Part of a trend
The intensity, frequency and duration of hot weather in Phoenix this year fits into an ongoing and expected trend in a warming world. In recent decades, Phoenix has averaged about 110 days hitting 100 degrees or more per year. That’s up from about 75 in the mid-1920s.



Taking stock of the records

The overall 2020 heat records in Phoenix are too many to list. But among the more notable are new highs for the number of days at or above 110 (53) and 115 (14) degrees. Not to mention, Phoenix never dropped below 90 degrees for a record 28-night stretch during the summer.

“2020 has pretty much broken every other heat record,” wrote Amber Sullins, chief meteorologist at Phoenix’s ABC television affiliate, in an email.

Here are several more significant records of note:
- Hottest summer: The average temperature of 96.7 degrees topped 2015′s 95.1 degrees.
- Hottest July: The average temperature of 98.9 degrees surpassed 2009′s 98.3 degrees.
- Hottest August and calendar month: The average temperature of 99.1 degrees blasted by 1989′s 98.3 degrees and broke the record for hottest month ever recorded, set just the month before.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 19, 2020, 11:16:01 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,231,645 KM2 as at 18-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 12k, 75 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 87k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.51 million km2, 1.61 million km2, 19.8% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.12 million km2.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  -0.07 million km2 LESS than 2019,
On average 89.3% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 17 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.20 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. Extent losses finished at the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the Arctic on this day a very low extent gain of 41k.
In the Antarctic on this day a very low extent loss of 29k.

Result, a very low 12k global sea ice extent gain.

The current projected maximum of 24.2 million km2 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and is entirely due to the record low Arctic sea ice extent
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: October 19, 2020, 10:32:11 AM »
Back on track for a 365 day trailing average record low in December 2020.

but......

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 19, 2020, 10:15:15 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,999,690 KM2 as at 18-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 41k, 97 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 138k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,445 k, which is 813 k, 36% less than the 10 year average of 2,258 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  367 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  852 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  970 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  790 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,503 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 22.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 144 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.72 million km2, 1.16 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
______________________________________________________
& so it goes on..... for how long?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (Oktober, mid-monthly update)
« on: October 18, 2020, 10:19:57 PM »
PIOMAS Mid- October - a bit more

I attach the plume of projections to the 2021 maxmimum from the previous 10 years volume gains.
Given the 6 month period, the range is fairly tight and evenly spread.

I also attach the October monthly averages graph, the 2020 average using averge extent gains for the 2nd half of October. No surprise, pretty much on trend.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (Oktober, mid-monthly update)
« on: October 18, 2020, 09:32:48 PM »
Once again, October is the month when records might be broken, as the freeze is delayed.
Volume gain since minimum is 369 (29%) km3 less than the 10 year average.

October 16th volume is 2nd lowest, 319 km3 below 2019, and just 45 km3 above 2012.

The (very early) projected maximum for April 2021 is 21.64 '000 km3, which would be 2nd lowest. But it is far too early to have any confidence in any projection.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2020, 06:56:52 PM »
Gero, it’s been a while since we’ve seen the 12 month average extent graph that I feel is one of the best snapshots of state of ASI. After the last couple of months of low extent data, and now a growing gap with all other years, it must be telling a bit of a tale.

Fingers crossed you might produce?

There is a thread just for this set up by Paddy, follow the link...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2909.msg290324#msg290324
_________________________________________________
ps: Attached is the October monthly averages graph - 2020 average assumes average extent gains from 18th October, actual extent gains to 17th October. Record low almost guaranteed.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: October 18, 2020, 06:49:09 PM »
Getting to be very interesting again...

click an image to make it bigger

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2020, 05:50:46 PM »
NSIDC Data - Peripheral Seas - sea ice area graphs

- St. Lawrence- zero,
- Greenland- at 2010's average,
- Barents - almost zero.

Greenland sea ice is more than 80% of total area of the seven seas. i.e. the freezing season is still mostly about ice export from the Central Arctic into the Greenland Sea.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2020, 05:43:27 PM »
NSIDC Data - Peripheral Seas - sea ice area graphs

- Okhotsk - almost zero,
- Bering - almost zero,
- Hudson Bay - almost zero,
- Baffin Bay - almost zero.


25
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: October 18, 2020, 04:46:14 PM »
Small headline from Bloomberg News today...

The 50 Richest Americans Are Worth as Much as the Poorest 165 Million.

Capitalism gone rogue?


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2020, 04:41:13 PM »
NSIDC Data - Graphs

Compare & contrast - the Beaufort & the Central Arctic regions.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2020, 02:54:09 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 17-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,991,722 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,991,722    km2      
-898,256    km2   <   2010's average.
-283,257    km2   <   2019
-1,925,241    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    53    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas___    47    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    11    k   gain
Beaufort_____    26    k   gain
CAA_________   -6    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 53 k, 46 k less than the 2010's average gain of 99 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 898 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,925 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 147 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 283 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 298 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 17-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,160,826 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 60 k, 56 k less than the 2010's average gain of 116k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1,161 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,286 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 558 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 129 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 476 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

28
Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: October 18, 2020, 02:11:17 PM »
As glaciers decline, glacial lakes grow until......

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0855-4.epdf
Rapid worldwide growth of glacial lakes since 1990
The global distribution of glacial lakes
The number and size of glacial lakes have grown rapidly over the past few decades (Figs. 1 and 2). In the 1990–1999 timeframe (see Methods), 9,414 glacial lakes (>0.05 km2) covered approximately 5.93 × 103 km2 of the Earth’s surface, which together contained ~105.7 km3 of water. As of 2015–2018, the number of glacial lakes globally had increased to 14,394 (Fig. 1), a 53% increase over 1990–1999. These had grown in total area by 51% to 8.95 × 103 km2, and their estimated volume had increased by 48% to 156.5 km3


29
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: October 18, 2020, 01:59:09 PM »
I didn't expect Tsunamis to be a permafrost melting consequence that is becoming a probability rather than a possibility.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/18/alaska-climate-change-tsunamis-melting-permafrost
Alaska's new climate threat: tsunamis linked to melting permafrost
Quote
In Alaska and other high, cold places around the world, new research shows that mountains are collapsing as the permafrost that holds them together melts, threatening tsunamis if they fall into the sea.

Scientists are warning that populated areas and major tourist attractions are at risk.

One area of concern is a slope of the Barry Arm fjord in Alaska that overlooks a popular cruise ship route.

The Barry Arm slide began creeping early last century, sped up a decade ago, and was discovered this year using satellite photos. If it lets loose, the wave could hit any ships in the area and reach hundreds of meters up nearby mountains, swamping the popular tourist destination and crashing as high as 10 meters over the town of Whittier. Earlier this year, 14 geologists warned that a major slide was “possible” within a year, and “likely” within 20 years.

In 2015, a similar landslide, on a slope that had also crept for decades, created a tsunami that sheared off forests 193 meters up the slopes of Alaska’s Taan Fiord.

“When the climate changes,” said geologist Bretwood Higman, who has worked on Taan Fiord and Barry Arm, “the landscape takes time to adjust. If a glacier retreats really quickly it can catch the surrounding slopes by surprise – they might fail catastrophically instead of gradually adjusting.”

After examining 30 years of satellite photos, for instance, geologist Erin Bessette-Kirton has found that landslides in Alaska’s St Elias mountains and Glacier Bay correspond with the warmest years.

Warming clearly leads to slides, but knowing just when those slides will release is a much harder problem. “We don’t have a good handle on the mechanism,” Bessette-Kirkton said. “We have correlations, but we don’t know the driving force. What conditions the landslide, and what triggers it?”

Adding to the problem, global heating has opened up water for landslides to fall in. A recent paper by Dan Shugar, a geomorphologist at the University of Calgary, shows that as glaciers have shrunk, glacial lakes have grown, ballooning 50% in both number and size in 18 years. In the ocean, fjords lengthen as ice retreats. Slopes that used to hang over ice now hang over water.

Over the past century, 10 of the 14 tallest tsunamis recorded happened in glaciated mountain areas. In 1958, a landslide into Alaska’s Lituya Bay created a 524-meter wave – the tallest ever recorded. In Alaska’s 1964 earthquake, most deaths were from tsunamis set off by underwater landslides.

To deal with the hazard, experts hope to predict when a slope is more likely to fail by installing sensors on the most dangerous slopes to measure the barely perceptible acceleration of creeping that may presage a slide.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2020, 12:08:56 PM »
Nico Sun's Arctic sea ice graph @ https://cryospherecomputing.tk/ uses NSIDC's daily area data, so gives a hint on the direction of travle of the NSIDC 5 day data I use.

And yesterday's graph shows a drop in area of nearly 40k. Another day's delay in the refreeze.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 18, 2020, 11:19:13 AM »
  The real story will play out in the changes we are going to see in winter weather in the northern hemisphere....  I think we are about to see him emerge.


I think the Siberian seas are going through Hudsonization: from now on they will quickly melt out in June/July and then stay open for long and then suddenly freeze over in a short timeframe (2-3 weeks) during November or early December.

how this will change NH winters is anyone's guess
I think you are a bit behind the curve. Winter sea ice is now looking vulnerable.

The Barents has already lost half its winter sea ice compared with the 1980's, and even that is looking vulnerable.

The Kara sea freeze continues into January / February and in some years does not fully freeze up.

And the same to a lesser extent with the Laptev & ESS.



32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2020, 10:45:41 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,219,520 KM2 as at 17-Oct-2020

- Extent LOSS on this day 3k, 64 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.50 million km2, 1.54 million km2, 19.1% less than the 10 year average gain of 8.04 million km2.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.01 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 88.4% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 18 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.28 million km2, 0.51 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. Extent losses finished at the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the Arctic it's the freezing season, but on this day a very low extent gain of 30k.
In the Antarctic it's the melting season, but on this day a very low extent loss of 33k.

Result, an 3k extent loss, continuing the stall in global sea ice extent gain to maximum.
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 18, 2020, 10:15:18 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,959,023 KM2 as at 17-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 30k, 91 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 121k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,404 k, which is 719 k, 34% less than the 10 year average of 2,123 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  277 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  798 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  845 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  681 k LESS than 2007
- Extent is  1,406 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 21.3% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 145 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.81 million km2, 1.06 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_________________________________________________________
Extent has been lowest from 11th October, and for 44 days in total this year.

The projection moves further into fantasy land as the simple projection is for a record low maximum now by over 1 million km2.  This is where the data, i.e. a low minimum and very low freeze to date (0.72 million km2 below average), is taking us.

Every day that extent gain is delayed is one day less for extent gain to occur and from a lower extent value.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2020, 08:40:27 PM »
NSIDC sea ice Area Graphs

Chukchi - refreeze behind 2010's average
Beaufort - refreeze about 2 weeks ahead of 2010's average
CAA - pretty much at 2010's average

Central Arctic- refreeze more than 2 weeks behind 2010's average

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2020, 08:18:39 PM »
NSIDC Area Graphs

The Russian Shore


Barents. Kara, Laptev, ESS - how late will the freeze be? How fast when it does happen?


36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2020, 02:49:20 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 16-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,938,403 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,938,403    km2      
-853,025    km2   <   2010's average.
-281,541    km2   <   2019
-1,872,835    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    50    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    5    k   gain
Central Seas___    45    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____    25    k   gain
CAA_________   -5    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 50 k, 48 k less than the 2010's average gain of 98 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 853 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,873 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 150 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 282 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 157 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 16-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,101,019 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 62 k, 46 k less than the 2010's average gain of 108k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1104 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,239 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 544 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 133 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 321 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2020, 12:38:34 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,928,965 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2020

_____________________________________________________
A daily extent loss  in October is unusual, but has happened 12 times in the last 18 years.

_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge
Thanks !
could you say what are these 12 dates?
I am curious to know if there is an increase in the frequency of these occurrences (even if I know that we cannot make a trend with 12 values), and how many are after October 15, where the gain is maximum
Maybe i have to post this on other topic, i don't know, i m sorry if is the wrong place to my question :-\
thank you again

Highlighted in red on screenshot attached. looks pretty random to me

click on image to enlarge

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 17, 2020, 12:33:22 PM »
China's UHVDC lines have 1.5% losses per 1000km.  Can't really see superconductors really making a lot of difference.   

We already have the tools to connect the dots.
And in the UK.  interconnectors to the continent & Eire are expanding.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-54539671
Cross-channel electricity link goes live in tests

Quote
An under-sea electricity link between England and France has been powered up for the first time before undergoing full tests in November.

The IFA2 interconnector between Hampshire and Normandy will deliver 1.2% of Britain's electricity needs, National Grid said. At first the two-way cable will typically import cheaper electricity from France, the firm added.

It will be the fourth of 12 planned interconnectors to the continent.

The 1GW-capacity link is the result of a £700m shared investment with French power firm RTE.

Jon Butterworth, chief executive of National Grid Ventures, said the interconnector would be a reliable and secure source of "green" energy.

He said it would give access to nuclear and renewable electricity in France, helping to deliver the UK's "net zero" carbon emissions target.

Mr Butterworth said: "The launch of the IFA2 interconnector is an important step in accelerating our progress to a cleaner, greener future."

The link has the potential to reduce wholesale electricity prices in Great Britain by 2%, National Grid said.

The firm said it could not give a date for start of full operations.

The 149-mile (240km) exchange runs from Tourbe, Normandy, to a converter station at Solent Airport and a national grid connection at Chilling, Hampshire.

Fareham Borough Council received more than 1,000 objections, citing concerns including purported health risks from electromagnetic fields and noise from the converter station.

The UK currently has five active interconnectors, including continental links to Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

Another 10 are planned, potentially bringing capacity to almost 18GW by 2023, according to Ofgem - the government regulator for gas and electricity.

https://www.nationalgrid.com/sites/default/files/documents/13784-High%20Voltage%20Direct%20Current%20Electricity%20%E2%80%93%20technical%20information.pdf
Quote
Introduction
High voltage direct current (HVDC) technology is one of the technical options National Grid can consider for the future development of the transmission system in Great Britain.

Although HVDC has some disadvantages, as its integration within an AC system has to be carefully considered and its cost can be higher than the equivalent AC solution, the advantages of HVDC transmission are principally the following:
-  the ability to interconnect networks that are asynchronous or that operate at
different frequencies
- the ability to transmit power over long distances without technical limitations
- the ability to control power flows on the HVDC connection for all system backgrounds
- the ability to transmit power in either direction as desired by the network operator
-  in certain cases the ability to improve AC system stability.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2020, 12:17:53 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT:  23,222,212 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 2k, 89 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 91k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 6.50 million km2, 1.48 million km2, 18.6% less than the 10 year average gain of 7.98 million km2.
- Extent is at position #2 in the satellite record
- 2020 Extent is  0.05 million km2 MORE than 2019,
On average 87.7% of sea ice gain from minimum to maximum done, and 19 days to maximum

Projections of the Unknown Quantity. (Table JAXA-AA1)

Average remaining sea ice gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in November 2020 of 24.34 million km2, 0.58 million km2 above the 2016 record low maximum of 23.76 million km2.
___________________________________________________
The false maximum was reached on the 28th June. Extent losses finished at the false minimum of early September. We are now in the late run of extent  gains to  the “maximum maximum” for the year in late October/early November.

N.B. In 2016 the maximum was reached on the 7th July. i.e. the November maximum was less than the “false” maximum.
___________________________________________________
In the Arctic it's the freezing season, but on this day a 10k extent loss.
In the Antarctic it's the melting season, but on this day a 12k extent gain.

Result, a very low 2k extent gain, which is more ammunition for Stephan's statement "Therefore the probability that the "false" maximum in July finally is the largest global sea ice extent in 2020 is rising".
___________________________________________________
N.B. Click an image once for full-size

40
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: October 17, 2020, 12:05:18 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  18,293,247 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2020

- Extent gain on this day 12k, 43 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 0.57 million km2, 0.07 million km2, (11%) less than the 10 year average of 0.64 million km2.
- Extent is at position #28 in the satellite record of which 16 lower values are in the years before 2000
- Extent is  735 k MORE than 2016
- Extent is  581 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  510 k MORE than 2018
- Extent is  243 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is  221 k MORE than the 1980's Average

- On average 4.0% of ice loss  from maximum to minimum done, and 128 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Feb 2021 of 2.88 million km2, 0.73 million km2 above the 2017 record low minimum of 2.15 million km2.
___________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image  for full-size

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2020, 11:33:35 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  4,928,965 KM2 as at 16-Oct-2020

- Extent loss on this day 10k, 132 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 122k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 1,374 k, which is 627 k, 31% less than the 10 year average of 2,001 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is  193 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is  784 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is  714 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is  625 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 20.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 146 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 12.90 million km2, 0.97 million km2 below the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_____________________________________________________
A daily extent loss  in October is unusual, but has happened 12 times in the last 18 years.
What is unusual, perhaps unprecedented,  is to have a simple projection of a record low maximum by nearly 1 million km2.  It looks very much like fantasy land, but that is where the data, i.e. a low minimum and very low freeze to date, have taken us.

Every day that extent gain is delayed is one day less for extent gain to occur and from a lower extent value.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 16, 2020, 08:43:09 PM »
Maybe plot Tesla historical price cuts (and their size) vs incoming competition?
Perhaps history won't show light on the issue.

Tesla is now an established company, able to grow at a fast rate and make a profit at the same time, much financed from internal cash flow. Companies often change their nature as they mature, many say they must to survive.

Remember Google at the beginning - "do no evil" ? Now it is a behemoth, ruthless in tax avoidance and in suppressing competition.

Is Tesla going the same way? Musk has many other fish to fry, mavbe the men in suits are already changing Tesla from within -  the ethos subtly changes to mainstream corporate America.
And that includes as regards competition - getting your retaliation in first. Given Tesla is looking at a market they rightfully see as expanding from a million EVs per year to tens of millions of vehicles a year, why else swat an irritating fly?

And Oren - I am always happy to stir the pot. And equating a politely critical comment with GSY's outpourings is beyond balderdash.







43
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 16, 2020, 07:49:54 PM »
meanwhile - the here and now from https://www.iea.org/reports/monthly-electricity-statistics

July 2020 electricity production. All OECD, China India and USA.

Fossil fuels still rule, OK.

Coal comes back for a third month - dominates India & China.
Natural Gas continues its relentless rise in the OECD especially the USA.

Solar + wind up a bit.

As the IEA World Energy 2020 Report says ...
"As things stand, the world is not set for a decisive downward turn in emissions…"

There is a Guardian Article which suggests Australia should worry about coal exports to China - but looks more like medium to long-term and China expanding its domestic coal production.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/15/china-losing-interest-in-australian-coal-isnt-about-diplomacy-its-simply-market-dynamics


44
The politics / Re: Brexit...
« on: October 16, 2020, 07:10:25 PM »
Meanwhile, the suggestion is that this is Boris' cunning plan.

He has said unless the EU changes the UK is going for no deal. What bravery, what machismo!!

He demanded that Michel Barnier comes to London on Monday - even though Barnier had already said he was coming on Monday.

The EU then throws Boris a well chewed and meat-free bone (sometime next week).

Boris then trumpets about how he has bent the EU to his will. (The EU says, privately, "Whatever", sigh.)

Some sort of fudge gets agreed by mid-November - the sort of compromise that nobody likes and sets up problems down the line.

January 1st sees several thousand lorries parked in Kent, ditto in Calais.

Soon after Boris seeks to break a key provision in the UK / EU Trade deal - it's what he does.
____________________________________________________
ps:-  https://www.politico.eu/article/support-for-scotland-independence-uk-at-highest-ever-level-poll/

Support for Scottish independence at highest ever level: Poll
No poll since March has shown a lead for No.

By ANDREW MCDONALD 10/14/20, 3:08 PM CET Updated 10/14/20, 6:26 PM CET
Support for Scottish independence is at the highest level ever recorded, according to a new poll.

The poll, by Ipsos MORI, found that 58 percent of people in Scotland who have made up their mind would vote Yes, with 42 percent saying they would vote No. That's the highest level of support for Scottish independence that has ever been recorded.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 16, 2020, 04:25:50 PM »
In the years 2007, 2012 and 2019, after the very low minimum sea ice extent in those years, extent sharply rebounded in the second half of October and the first few days in November. After that, for the remainder of the freezing season, extent gains were much more average in those years.

This was NOT the case in 2016. There was no massive increase in extent gains at that time or during the entire freezing season. As a result the March 2017 maximum was a record low. What was the difference? I'm not sure.

Perhaps even though 2019 had a higher AWP (i.e. potential) than 2016, clouds and inclement weather reduced the amount that AWP became real ocean heating, while in 2016 there was plenty of sunshine. If that is the case, then 2020 is similar to 2016. The GACC ensured that much of the AWP became real ocean heating, even though AWP was marginally below 2019. This suggests that large sea ice extent gains might not occur this year from now to early November (and beyond?)

The test will come in the next two to three weeks

46
How average can you get? https://cryospherecomputing.tk/ from Nico Sun

47
Data from...
http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/
http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/


data to 15 October

Melt has almost stopped. So instead here is a gif of daily SMB gain and cumulative SMB anomaly plus SMB and melt graphs.

Pretty much average snowfall so far.


48
The politics / Re: Brexit...
« on: October 16, 2020, 02:57:58 PM »
“I concluded that we should get ready for 1 January with arrangements that are more like Australia’s....." Boris

Like Australia...
-In thrall to coal & gas,
-Climate science denial,
-Wildfires and massive destruction of habitat,
-Mismanagement of water resources (Murray-Darling basin)
- Overt and covert prejudice and actions against the indigenous population,
- incarceration of refugees in prison camps overseas.

But I am sure the UK can do better than that.

 

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 16, 2020, 02:37:16 PM »
NSIDC Area & Extent Graphs.

Attached are the summary graphs for the High Arctic and the peripheral Seas, that show
- that the Peripheral Seas are losing maximum far more than the High Arctic,
- area is far more variable than extent.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 16, 2020, 02:20:10 PM »
NSIDC Total AREA as at 15-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 3,887,961 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 3,887,961    km2      
-805,384    km2   <   2010's average.
-275,792    km2   <   2019
-1,826,124    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    76    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    8    k   gain
Central Seas___    68    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______    0    k   gain
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    -    k   loss
Greenland____    9    k   gain
Barents ______   -0    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____    27    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    23    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
         
Sea ice area gain on this day 76 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average gain of 99 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 805 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,826 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 142 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 276 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 48 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 15-Oct-2020 (5 day trailing average) 5,039,187 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 73 k, 29 k less than the 2010's average gain of 102k         
         
- 2020 EXTENT is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 EXTENT is 1058 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 2,193 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 EXTENT is 523 k less than 2016         
- 2020 EXTENT is 143 k less than 2019          
- 2020 EXTENT is 201 k less than 2012
_______________________________________
After a blip on the 14th, area now lowest again by a more convincing 48k.    
So JAXA extent & NSIDC area and extent (5 day average) and NSIDC Area and Extent (daily value) all lowest on this day, i.e. a Full House      

Extent and area gains continue below average

___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

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