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Messages - gerontocrat

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1
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 12, 2019, 10:53:44 PM »
Thank you gerontocrat for keeping us updated.
A little note on the "projected minimum": If the above average ice losses continue the resulting minimum for the entry 2010/2011 will become negative.
We are on a bad track concerning sea ice area and extent.
That a projection produces a nonsense it has not shown before, such as a -ve extent, shows the spreadsheet has its limitations.

It will be interesting to see how long the -ve value persists. Not long, I suspect.



2
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 12, 2019, 06:41:00 PM »
Seven cars and six battery changes though?  Granted quality is way up so this should not recur in anything like the frequency.

However, that being said, my wife drove her 806 diesel to 300,000 miles before I insisted that she changed it due to developing mechanical issues.  So a Tesla at 300k miles with relatively few issues is not bad.  The loss of 60 miles is a bigger issue. But, again, at 300k miles..
The real scam, in common with all vehicles and automakers , is the price charged for a computer chip.

"A flash memory chip is a common weak point, and costs $1,800 to replace."
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-electric-cars-surpass-300000-miles-in-shuttle-service/

You can buy a lot of computer hardware & software with eighteen hundred bucks. I wish I had it to spare.

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 12, 2019, 04:51:09 PM »
Tesla just changed their battery and drive train warranty mileage limit from "unlimited" to "120,000 miles"...
...probably cuz the battery is even better than claimed!  ;)
A fact from GSY!! And not just the USA, where the Tesla owners' club has a lot of owners somewhat annoyed.

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/support/vehicle-warranty
Quote
New Vehicle Limited Warranty
Your vehicle is covered by a New Vehicle Limited Warranty for 4 years or 50,000 miles, whichever comes first. The Battery and Drive Unit in your vehicle are covered for a period of:

Model S and Model X – 8 years (with the exception of the original 60 kWh battery manufactured before 2015, which is covered for a period of 8 years or 125,000 miles, whichever comes first).

Model 3 - 8 years or 100,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.

Model 3 with Long-Range Battery - 8 years or 120,000 miles, whichever comes first, with minimum 70% retention of Battery capacity over the warranty period.

These warranties cover the repair or replacement necessary to correct defects in the materials or workmanship of any parts manufactured or supplied by Tesla, which occur under normal use.

On the other hand, here is a study of battery degradation of 500 Tesla vehicles...
looks like 7 years 150,000 miles = 90% battery capacity on average.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-7764529/US-study-claims-Tesla-batteries-lose-just-1-performance-year.html
Quote
Study claims Teslas lose just 1% performance every year caused by repeat charges
- It says Tesla batteries show slow levels of deterioration for first 150,000 miles
- After 7 years, the average Tesla car battery loses 7% capacity, researcher found

To review the condition of batteries, researchers downloaded owner-submitted information for around 500 Tesla Model S cars.

This also included the purchase date, battery size, EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) range and, for the date of submission, the odometer reading. 

It had to use both full-range and partial-range estimates to take into account that some owners do not charge the vehicle's battery to 100 per cent capacity.

The study found that battery degradation is impact by the number of charges it endures and higher mileage models - which would have been plugged in more often - had reduced capacities.   

The research reveals that the average Tesla Model S battery provides more than 90 per cent of its original range up until around 150,000 miles.

However, beyond that mileage the range starts to noticeably drop off.


NimbleFin's report said: 'It's interesting to see that a car with unusually high mileage for the age (over 143,000 miles for a car less than 5 years old) has more significant battery deterioration than a typical car of the same age.

The vehicle with the highest mileage of all in the survey sample was a Model S 85P with 232,442 miles on the clock. Even after that duration of ownership, mileage and recharges, it was found to still be able to cover 220 miles on a single charge, which works out at 83 per cent of its original 265-mile range.

and here is the experience of a company driving their Tesla fleet really hard - some real battery problems that seem to have mostly disappeared as Tesla improved the software.
A fleet of Teslas drove 300,000 miles. Here’s what broke and what didn’t
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-electric-cars-surpass-300000-miles-in-shuttle-service/

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 12, 2019, 03:28:44 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,974,223  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,974,223    km2      
-114,553    km2   <   2010's average.
-137,694    km2   <   2018
-455,132    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    84    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    34    k   gain
Central Seas__   -3    k   loss
Other Seas___    53    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    10    k   gain
Greenland____    13    k   gain
Barents ______    16    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -10    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    9    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    47    k   gain

Daily gain 84 k, 7 k LESS than the 2010's average of 91 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 115 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 138 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,001 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly on the Alaska North slope and the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
________________________________________________________________________
The seas with significance for early melting in 2020 are principally the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas.

The final maximum sea ice area and extent result also depends on those seas and the Okhotsk, St. Lawrence & Baffin Bay

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: December 12, 2019, 01:53:00 PM »
Who needs Martians when we are developing our very own home-grown autonomous monsters of destruction?

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 12, 2019, 12:58:11 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,194,613 km2(December 11, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 99 k, 2 k more than the average gain of 97 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,230 k, 370 k (5.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 6,860 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 443 k more than 2016
- Extent is 3 k less than 2018
- Extent is 66 k (0.6%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 69.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 91 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.18 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.30 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly over the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Atlantic Front.
_____________________________________________________________

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 12, 2019, 12:42:28 PM »
Barents - will above average sea ice area continue?
Barents: I'm curious as to why we started seeing encroachment onto the Shelf. for a few years there was little ice on the shelf because of (presumably) Atlantic water effectively melting ice as it crossed the continental shelf before flowing down the slope. Why is less warm water (or more cold water) finding its way to the shelf boundary and increasing extent? Has the AMOC slowed?; Is the warm water deeper; is it finding its way around to the Nares? Should I post this on stupid questions?
The article below gives the process of atlantification of the Barents Sea.
This year the process seems to have stopped (temporarily?).
https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 11, 2019, 10:15:30 PM »
SST anomalies from Aug 6 to Dec 10

plays 3 times then stops.

9
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 11, 2019, 09:44:27 PM »
It's notable that 2016 had a lot of below average losses in the coming month, allowing minimum extent to remain reasonably close to other years. Could the 2019-2020 freezing season embark on the same path and not smash the records?

That is a very possible outcome - though my guess is for a record low, but not by much.

10
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 11, 2019, 09:30:33 PM »
Shouldn't the legend for the pink line on your latest Ant2.png be 2016/7 not 2012/3?
Well spotted, that man.

There is me, trying to rationalise my web of spreadsheets, so a couple of entries tells them to show two years during the transition, and then switch back in early 2020, and change all the dates to the new year.

The inevitable price of developing spreadsheets like topsy (i.e. they just growed). There will be more gremlins, I am sure. Half the time I have forgotten how I did the algorithms.

Corrected.

11
The faster we decarbonize the better off we will be. Even if things get really bad, they could always get even worse.
I've posted on Arctic Permafrost CO2 emissions at...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2546.msg240382.html#msg240382

Things certainly could get a good deal worse.

12
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: December 11, 2019, 08:58:09 PM »
The essay linked below is in the NOAA 2019 Arctic Report Card https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2019
Basically, winter CO2 emissions grossly underestimated and more than CO2 capture in the Summer by 0.6 petagrams of CARBON per annum.

To us simple people it is 0.6 x 3.67 = 2.2 GT of CO2 - a significant amount meaning a carbon sink is a actually a carbon emitter.

Extracts.....
https://arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2019/ArtMID/7916/ArticleID/844/Permafrost-and-the-Global-Carbon-Cycle
Permafrost and the Global Carbon Cycle

Quote
Highlights
- Northern permafrost region soils contain 1,460-1,600 billion metric tons of organic carbon, about twice as much as currently contained in the atmosphere.
- This pool of organic carbon is climate-sensitive. Warming conditions promote microbial conversion of permafrost carbon into the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane that are released to the atmosphere in an accelerating feedback to climate warming.
- New regional and winter season measurements of ecosystem carbon dioxide flux independently indicate that permafrost region ecosystems are releasing net carbon (potentially 0.3 to 0.6 Pg C per year) to the atmosphere.
- These observations signify that the feedback to accelerating climate change may already be underway.

Introduction
The Arctic continues to warm at a rate that is currently twice as fast as the global average (see essay Surface Air Temperature). Warming is causing perennially-frozen ground (permafrost) to thaw, with permafrost in many locations currently reaching record high temperatures (Biskaborn et al. 2019). Organic carbon contained in soils of the permafrost region represent a climate-sensitive carbon reservoir that is affected by warming air and ground temperatures and permafrost thaw....

The northern permafrost region holds almost twice as much carbon as is currently in the atmosphere. Additional net releases of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to the atmosphere as a result of warming and faster microbial decomposition of permafrost carbon have the potential to accelerate climate warming. ....

Permafrost carbon pools: How much permafrost carbon is available to release into the atmosphere?
The new, best mean estimate of the amount of organic carbon stored in the northern permafrost region is 1,460-1,600 petagrams (Pg; 1 Pg = 1 billion metric tons) (Hugelius et al. 2014; Schuur et al. 2015). Of this inventory, 65-70% (1,035 ± 150 Pg) of the carbon is within the surface layer (0-3 m depth) (Fig. 1). Soils in the top 3 m of the rest of Earth's biomes (excluding Arctic and boreal biomes) contain 2,050 Pg of organic carbon (Jobbagy and Jackson 2000). The soil carbon from the northern circumpolar permafrost region adds another 50% to this 3-m inventory, even though it occupies only 15% of the total global soil area (Schuur et al. 2015).

Ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange: Is the Arctic currently releasing additional net carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere?
....
A new comprehensive synthesis study of non-summer ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the circumpolar region showed that carbon release during the Arctic winter was 2 to 3 times higher than previously estimated from ground-based measurements (Fig. 3) (Natali et al. 2019). This circumpolar estimate suggests that carbon release in the cold season offsets net carbon uptake during the growing season (derived from models) such that the region as a whole could already be a source of 0.6 Pg C per year to the atmosphere.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 11, 2019, 07:35:52 PM »

The reason I was thinking about it is that the Giga3 production and Q4 results are likely to push Tesla shares over the convertible threshold for quite some time.

The stock is over 355 atm and likely to keep drifting higher day by day.
Just the standard Xmas gift to Wall Street or will it attack the June 2017 high and move to a new plateau?

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: December 11, 2019, 07:30:40 PM »
Quote
Assuming they had similar specs and you had to pick one
What a weird way to ask the question. The issue is these all-electric pickup trucks don't have similar specs, nor similar prices, so what are the answers even supposed to mean?
So, assume the Rivian has a 6.5' bed? And a starting price of $39k? Rather than 4.5' and $69k.
Assume the unknown Ford and GM pickups will have the same features and pricing of the Cybertruck?
If I were answering this survey myself I wouldn't know how to answer. IMHO the results are almost useless.
If the specs are the same I think I will go for the one in delicate pink, pale green trim and a turquoise roof.

15
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 11, 2019, 07:20:55 PM »
Article also comes with a map....

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: December 11, 2019, 06:52:30 PM »
Energy hogs

When it comes to AI, recent research found that training a large AI model—feeding large amounts of data into the computer system and asking for predictions—can emit more than 284 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent—nearly five times the lifetime emissions of the average American car. The results of this work show that there is a growing problem with AI's digital footprint.
Total CO2 emissions divided by Human Population = circ 5 tonnes per capita
High Income countries 11 tonnes per capita.
USA ? 16.5 tonnes per capita

Perhaps we should put an average human to work for 50+ years on each AI application. After all, the mice used earth for 10? million years to find the answer was "42", and that it was the wrong question.

So who decides the question shoved at the AI application? Another AI?
But then who decided the question shoved at that AI application?

I can feel an infinite chicken and egg loop emerging.

17
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 11, 2019, 06:34:13 PM »
For every headline on oil & gas production under threat, there is another headline saying the buggers just won't stop.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/canada-trudea-climate-crisis
Trudeau will fuel the fires of our climate crisis if he approves Canada's mega mine

Quote
This week, the Canadian government is in Madrid telling the world that climate action is its No 1 priority. When they get home, Justin Trudeau’s newly re-elected government will decide whether to throw more fuel on the fires of climate change by giving the go-ahead to construction of the largest open-pit oil sands mine in Canadian history.

Approving Teck Resources’ Frontier mine would effectively signal Canada’s abandonment of its international climate goals. The mega mine would operate until 2067, adding a whopping 6 megatonnes of climate pollution every year. That’s on top of the increasing amount of carbon that Canada’s petroleum producers are already pumping out every year.

Oil and gas is now the largest climate polluter in the country, exceeding all greenhouse gases from transportation. Even without Teck Frontier, there are 131 megatonnes per year in approved tar sands projects just waiting for companies to begin construction. No wonder the industry is on track to take up 53% of Canada’s emissions budget within the next 10 years.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 11, 2019, 05:14:24 PM »
Seas to watch at the end of the freezing season

Chukchi - how late will the final freeze be?
Bering  - how much winter sea ice ?

Greenland - high extent could just mean CAB loses even more thick ice.
Barents - will above average sea ice area continue?

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 11, 2019, 04:39:55 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,889,910  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,889,910    km2   
-108,018    km2   <   2010's average.
-137,557    km2   <   2018
-467,802    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    107    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    34    k   gain
Central Seas__    20    k   gain
Other Seas___    54    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    13    k   gain
Greenland____    10    k   gain
Barents ______    13    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    9    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    47    k   gain

Daily gain 107 k, 17 k MORE than the 2010's average of 90 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 108 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 138 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 1,028 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.1  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly on the Alaska North slope and the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- at the Pacific Gateway and especially at the Atlantic Front, which probably contributed to the recent large and even extreme sea ice gains

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last week or so.
________________________________________________________________________
The final maximum sea ice area and extent result and the seas with significance for early melting are principally the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas, with the Okhotsk & Baffin Bay of secondary significance

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 11, 2019, 02:11:49 PM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-  21,574,429 km2(December 10, 2019)

On this day well above average Antarctic extent loss and by very low Arctic extent gains. resulted in an extreme extent loss.

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 267 k, 128 k more than the last 10 years' average of 139 k,
- Extent loss to date 3.03 million km2, 0.22 million (8.0 %) more than the 10 year average of 2.80 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.60 million km2 greater than 2016,
- 30.8 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 66 days to the average minimum date of 13 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still extremely early to take this seriously. Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.27 million km2, 0.28 million less than the record low in early 2018.
_____________________________________________________________

21
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 11, 2019, 01:37:24 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,478,488 km2(December 10, 2019)

A triple century extent loss is unusual, though not rare at this brief period of maximum extent loss
- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 310 k, 61 k more than the last 10 years' average of 249 k,
- Extent loss to date 7.87 million km2, 0.87 million (12.4%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 7.00 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,080 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 503 k less than 2018 on this day,

- 44.0% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 72 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.56 million km2, 0.59 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which would be more than astonishing.
______________________________________________________________

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 11, 2019, 12:20:06 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,095,941 km2(December 10, 2019)

- Extent gain on this day 43 k, 67 k less than the average gain of 110 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,132 k, 730 k (5.5%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,762 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 523 k more than 2016
- Extent is 22k more than 2018
- Extent is 60 k (0.5%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 68.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 92 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.18 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.30 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.1  to +2.3 celsius over the next 5 days. Very high +ve anomaly on the Alaska North slope and the Chukchi Sea.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- at the Pacific Gateway and especially at the Atlantic Front, which probably contributed to the recent large and even extreme extent gains and now the very low extent gains.

On this day sea ice extent gain very much below average - what next?
_____________________________________________________________

24
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: December 10, 2019, 11:49:15 PM »
Re: ogallala

In my trips out west i spoke to many farmers reliant on pumped irrigation from the aquifer. Their major concern at present is not running out of aquifer, rather running out of money to pump from deeper and deeper wells ...

sidd
sidd,

to my surprise some farmers have got the message and are trying to do something about it.

https://civileats.com/2019/11/18/high-plains-farmers-race-to-save-the-ogallala-aquifer/
Quote
BY GRETA MORAN
Climate, ENVIRONMENT, FARMING, Regenerative Agriculture, Water
Posted on: November 18, 2019  |  Leave a Comment 
About a decade ago, Chris Grotegut realized that he had to start pumping much less groundwater out of his wells. It dawned on the cattle rancher and grain farmer that if he didn’t act soon, there may not be enough water to sustain his 11,000-acre farm in Hereford, Texas—much less to support the next generation on his land.

It’s well-documented that the Ogallala Aquifer, which supplies water to Grotegut’s land, is rapidly depleting. Nearby farms in the High Plains of the Texas Panhandle have experienced worse—many of their wells are going dry. As the aquifer draws lower, the future of agriculture in the region becomes an open question—and the answer depends, in part, on whether enough farmers can shift their practices to sustain on less groundwater.

“We must live within our ecological means in order to give those same ecological opportunities to the next generation,” said Grotegut, who is as much a self-taught ecologist as he is a farmer. “The ethical problem is, what are we leaving our kids?”

read on, worth it

But I lost a farmer's blog on how no-till farming + other stuff (especially mulch) meant water levels in his wells are rising.


25
Greenland is melting faster..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-48387030
Climate change: Greenland ice melt 'is accelerating'
Quote
Greenland is losing ice seven times faster than it was in the 1990s. The assessment comes from an international team of polar scientists who've reviewed all the satellite observations over a 26-year period.

They say Greenland's contribution to sea-level rise is currently tracking what had been regarded as a pessimistic projection of the future.

It means an additional 7cm of ocean rise could now be expected by the end of the century from Greenland alone. "Storms, if they happen against a baseline of higher seas - they will break flood defences," said Prof Andy Shepherd, of Leeds University. "The simple formula is that around the planet, six million people are brought into a flooding situation for every centimetre of sea-level rise. So, when you hear about a centimetre rise, it does have impacts," he told BBC News.

Greenland is reacting to the Arctic's rapid warming. This is a part of the globe that has seen a 0.75C temperature rise in just the past decade.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1855-2  Paywalled
Quote
Abstract
In recent decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet has been a major contributor to global sea-level rise1,2, and it is expected to be so in the future3. Although increases in glacier flow4–6 and surface melting7–9 have been driven by oceanic10–12 and atmospheric13,14 warming, the degree and trajectory of today’s imbalance remain uncertain. Here we compare and combine 26 individual satellite measurements of changes in the ice sheet’s volume, flow and gravitational potential to produce a reconciled estimate of its mass balance. Although the ice sheet was close to a state of balance in the 1990s, annual losses have risen since then, peaking at 335 ± 62 billion tonnes per year in 2011. In all, Greenland lost 3,800 ± 339 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2018, causing the mean sea level to rise by 10.6 ± 0.9 millimetres. Using three regional climate models, we show that reduced surface mass balance has driven 1,971 ± 555 billion tonnes (52%) of the ice loss owing to increased meltwater runoff. The remaining 1,827 ± 538 billion tonnes (48%) of ice loss was due to increased glacier discharge, which rose from 41 ± 37 billion tonnes per year in the 1990s to 87 ± 25 billion tonnes per year since then. Between 2013 and 2017, the total rate of ice loss slowed to 217 ± 32 billion tonnes per year, on average, as atmospheric circulation favoured cooler conditions15 and as ocean temperatures fell at the terminus of Jakobshavn Isbræ16. Cumulative ice losses from Greenland as a whole have been close to the IPCC’s predicted rates for their high-end climate warming scenario17, which forecast an additional 50 to 120 millimetres of global sea-level rise by 2100 when compared to their central estimate.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 10, 2019, 12:52:22 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,052,722 km2(December 9, 2019)


- Extent gain on this day 84 k, 6k less than the average gain of 90 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,088 k, 436k (6.6%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,652 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 687 k more than 2016
- Extent is 90k more than 2018
- Extent is 11 k (0.1%)  more than the 2010's average.

- on average 67.6 % of extent gain for the the season done, 93 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.24 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.36 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.8  to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- at the Pacific Gateway and especially at the Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

On this day sea ice extent gain a trifle below average - what next?
_____________________________________________________________

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 09, 2019, 09:23:54 PM »
In 15 days, Tesla will begin installing 1,000 solar roofs per week.
25 Oct 2019
“We’re doing installations as fast as we possibly can, starting in the next few weeks,” Musk said about availability, adding that the goal is to “get to 1,000 roofs per week” sometime in “the next several months.”
https://techcrunch.com/2019/10/25/teslas-new-solar-roof-costs-less-than-a-new-roof-plus-solar-panels-aims-for-install-rate-of-1k-per-week/

Another fact from GSY that is not a fact. Tiresome, except it was worth checking.

If they are not getting close by end March 2020 then it will be time to ask awkward questions.

Perhaps GSY added 2 months to the date of gerontocrat's linked article (25 oct) and got 25 dec which is in 15 days?  ;D
Perhaps he didn't.

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 09, 2019, 08:40:01 PM »
In 15 days, Tesla will begin installing 1,000 solar roofs per week.
25 Oct 2019
“We’re doing installations as fast as we possibly can, starting in the next few weeks,” Musk said about availability, adding that the goal is to “get to 1,000 roofs per week” sometime in “the next several months.”
https://techcrunch.com/2019/10/25/teslas-new-solar-roof-costs-less-than-a-new-roof-plus-solar-panels-aims-for-install-rate-of-1k-per-week/

Another fact from GSY that is not a fact. Tiresome, except it was worth checking.

If they are not getting close by end March 2020 then it will be time to ask awkward questions.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: December 09, 2019, 08:30:16 PM »
Beware share price in December.

Everybody on Wall Street wants their Xmas bonus. Bad news is spun into good news.
Shorties usually go away and hope for the January hangover.


30
Evidence for increased submarine melting of tidewater glaciers (& ice shelves?)


Geophysical Research Letters
Meltwater intrusions reveal mechanisms for rapid submarine melt at a tidewater glacier
R.H. Jackson  J.D. Nash  C. Kienholz  D.A. Sutherland  J.M. Amundson  R.J. Motyka  D. Winters  E. Skyllingstad  E. Pettit
First published: 25 November 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085335
Quote
Abstract
Submarine melting has been implicated as a driver of glacier retreat and sea level rise, but to date melting has been difficult to observe and quantify. As a result, melt rates have been estimated from parameterizations that are largely unconstrained by observations, particularly at the near‐vertical termini of tidewater glaciers. With standard coefficients, these melt parameterizations predict that ambient melting (the melt away from subglacial discharge outlets) is negligible compared to discharge‐driven melting for typical tidewater glaciers. Here, we present new data from LeConte Glacier, Alaska that challenges this paradigm. Using autonomous kayaks, we observe ambient meltwater intrusions that are ubiquitous within 400 m of the terminus, and we provide the first characterization of their properties, structure, and distribution. Our results suggest that ambient melt rates are substantially higher ($\x100$) than standard theory predicts and that ambient melting is a significant part of the total submarine melt flux. We explore modifications to the prevalent melt parameterization to provide a path forward for improved modeling of ocean‐glacier interactions.

Plain Language Summary
Tidewater glaciers discharge ice into the ocean through iceberg calving and submarine melting. Submarine melting has been implicated as a driver of glacier retreat and sea level rise, but melt rates have been difficult to directly observe and quantify. As a result, melt rates are typically estimated using a theory that has not been tested with observations at any tidewater glaciers. Two types of melting are expected at tidewater glaciers: where subglacial discharge drains from outlets in the terminus, energetic upwelling plumes rise along the ice face, and theory predicts vigorous melting. Away from discharge outlets, weaker plumes form from ambient melting, and theory predicts that these ambient melt rates are effectively negligible compared to discharge‐driven melting. Here, we present new data from LeConte Glacier, Alaska that challenges this paradigm. Using autonomous kayaks, we observe intrusions of meltwater ‐‐ the product of ambient melt plumes ‐‐ that are only found within 400 m of the terminus, and we provide the first characterization of their properties, structure, and distribution. Their ubiquity suggests that ambient melt rates are substantially higher than standard theory predicts and that ambient melting is a significant ‐‐ but often neglected ‐‐ part of the total submarine melt flux.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 09, 2019, 07:21:25 PM »
I can take a hint, Juan...
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 5 day trailing averages - Analysed as for JAXA data:-
Extent  11,080,581 km2(December 8, 2019)

Extreme extent gains started 2 days ago - will continue

- Extent gain on this day 128 k, 61k more than the average gain of 67k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,927 k, 199k (3.0%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,728 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 657 k more than 2016
- Extent is 110k less than 2018
- Extent is 164 k (1.5%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 66.5 % of extent gain for the the season done, 94 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.44 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.20 million km2 (14.24 million km2 in March 2018).
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last 5 days.

The data is very close to that of JAXA extent data
_____________________________________________________________

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 09, 2019, 04:42:54 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,664,730 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,664,730    km2      
-166,371    km2   <   2010's average.
-190,639    km2   <   2018
-552,635    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    121    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    24    k   gain
Central Seas__    39    k   gain
Other Seas___    58    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    25    k   gain
Greenland____   -12    k   loss
Barents ______    11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    6    k   gain
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    12    k   gain
Laptev_______   -9    k   loss
Chukchi______    22    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    64    k   gain

Daily gain 121 k, 51 k MORE than the 2010's average of 70 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 166 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 191 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 971 km2
- 2019 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last 5 days
________________________________________________________________________
The final maximum sea ice area and extent result will depend on seas on the periphery or outside of the main Arctic Ocean, namely..
- The Okhotsk Sea,
- The Bering Sea,
- Baffin Bay,
- The St. Lawrence Sea,
- The Greenland Sea
- The Barents Sea.

So the current very rapid freeze of Hudson Bay is essentially irrelevant.

As far as the 2020 melting season is concerned, it may be that the seas with significance for early melting are just the Bering, Greenland and Barents Seas.

33
Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions
« on: December 09, 2019, 02:52:34 PM »
Staying at or below 1.5°C requires reducing global greenhouse gas emissions  to 45 percent below 2010 levels by 2030

In 2010 CO2 emissions from fossil fuels & industry were circa 33 GT + **land-use changes 5 GT = 38 GT
In 2018 CO2 emissions from fossil fuels & industry were circa 37 GT + **land-use changes 5 GT = 42 GT

(**assumes no change)

So how are we doing in 2019? I sent an e-mail to ENERDATA.com
I got an answer. 2019 emissions from energy estimated to rise by 1 to 1.5% in 2019.
The main conclusion for me is that the drop in CO2 emissions from the reduction in coal + increase in energy from renewable sources is less than the increase in CO2 emissions from growth in Natural Gas and oil.

So assume
In 2019 CO2 emissions from fossil fuels & industry were circa 37.5 GT + **land-use changes 5 GT = 42.5 GT

For total CO2 emissions to reduce by 45% by 2030,
- 2030 total emissions down to 21 GT,
- 2030 emissions from fossil fuels & industry 16 GT (assumes no change in land-use changes)

That is a reduction of 58% in CO2 from fossil fuels & industry from 2019 to 2030..

It also assumes that emissions from land-use changes will not increase and the carbon sinks will not deteriorate.

Meanwhile..
Climate change: UN negotiators 'playing politics' amid global crisis
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50706236

34
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: December 09, 2019, 12:23:11 PM »
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union%E2%80%93Mercosur_free_trade_agreement
European Union–Mercosur free trade agreement

Blindly continuing down the path of mutually assured destruction......

It is just possible that the actions of Bolsonaro will force the EU to think again. Hope dies last.
Quote
According to Jonathan Watts ‘negotiations took almost two decades, which may explain why the outcome signed last week reflects the pro-industry values of the past rather than the environmental concerns of the present’.[12] An editorial in The Irish Times states “EU countries are committing to achieving net-zero carbon by 2050, but this will prove meaningless if the planet’s greatest carbon sink is destroyed.”

The deal is expected to trigger a huge surge of Brazilian beef exports to all EU countries.[8][12] Under the agreement, the EU will open its markets to a quota of up to 99,000 tonnes of beef per year at a preferential rate of 7.5% tariffs.

Cattle farming is the single largest driver of Amazon deforestation, and has been responsible for as much as 80% of the deforestation

Opposition
The deal has been denounced by European beef farmers, environmental activists and indigenous rights campaigners.[5][9] Protests against the deal have taken place.[5][10] After Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro received much criticism concerning the protection of the Amazon rain forest, both Ireland and France voiced concern, and threatened a veto on the agreement unless action is taken by the Brazilian government.[11]

European farmers
The deal is expected to trigger a huge surge of Brazilian beef exports to all EU countries.[8][12] Under the agreement, the EU will open its markets to a quota of up to 99,000 tonnes of beef per year at a preferential rate of 7.5% tariffs.[5] Farmers throughout the EU oppose this, particularly smaller farmers who fear being undercut on price.[5] The COPA-COGECA union, which represents 23 million farmers across the EU, warned the deal “will go down in history as a very dark moment”.[5] The Irish Farmers' Association denounced the deal as a “disgraceful and feeble sell-out”.[13]

Of concern also is the potential environmental impact of the agreement, in particular that it could represent a setback in the fight against climate change.[12] The Amazon rainforest is one of the world's largest carbon sinks.[14] But the amount of carbon that the Amazon is absorbing from the atmosphere and storing each year has fallen by around a third in the last decade.[15] This decline in the Amazon carbon sink amounts to one billion tonnes of carbon dioxide – equivalent to over twice the UK’s annual emissions.[15] Since the election of Jair Bolsonaro as President of Brazil deforestation of the Amazon has intensified.[12] The deforestation of the Amazon is now at its highest rate in a decade, with 2018 seeing a 13% increase in deforestation.[12]

Cattle farming is the single largest driver of Amazon deforestation, and has been responsible for as much as 80% of the deforestation.[12][16] The current increased rate of rainforest destruction comes at a time of record beef exports from Brazil.[12] The fear is that the deal could lead to even more deforestation as it expands market access to Brazilian beef.

35
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: December 09, 2019, 11:58:03 AM »
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current - 4 Dec

Qu: But how much melt before the next blast ?
_____________________________
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current - 8 Dec

A:  Quite a lot (North America and Eurasia)

My speculation that belongs to me (mostly stolen from real scientists) - for North America especially ↠↠
Global heating ↠ Weak Polar Vortex
↠ ↠ large slow-moving Rossby Waves 
↠ ↠ influx of cold & snow from the North
↠ ↠ followed by influx of warmth from the South

= record snowfall & storms followed by strong melt = overall average snow cover.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: December 09, 2019, 08:15:03 AM »
5 days of extreme sea ice extent gains has put the cat amongst the pigeons.
A new record low 365 day average extent in 2019 is in the range of impossible to infinitely impossible

A week ago I wrote....
 
Quote
So if 2019 extent gains are at average or above, the difference in extent between 2019 and 2018 could quickly reduce. Also, in general, variations in extent between years reduce as winter progresses. This will reduce the daily reduction in the 365 daily average and thus lengthen the time to reach a record low - or even prevent that record low from happening.
And on the 7th December 2019 extent became greater than 2018 - so the date for a new record low is currently The 12th of Never and that's a long, long time.

So what will happen from now? Will 2019 extent stay above 2018 or will extent gains from now become below average?

In defiance of probability I still plump for an early 2020 record low - (Jan to March), but have no scientific basis whatsoever for that guess

Data table & graphs attached
_________________________________________

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 09, 2019, 08:04:12 AM »
JAXA GLOBAL SEA ICE EXTENT :-  22,042,280 km2(December 8, 2019)

Above average Antarctic extent loss more than matched by extreme Arctic extent gains.

- 2019 is 2nd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 110 k, 37 k less than the last 10 years' average of 147 k,
- Extent loss to date 2.56 million km2, 0.03 million (1.0 %) more than the 10 year average of 2.53 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1.82 million km2 greater than 2016,
- 27.8 % of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 68 days to the average minimum date of 13 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

Still extremely early to take this seriously. Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 15.47 million km2, 0.08 million less than the record low in early 2018.
_____________________________________________________________
[/quote]

38
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 09, 2019, 07:48:12 AM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 11,073,060 km2(December 8, 2019)

- 2019 is 3rd lowest in the satellite record since 1979,
- Extent loss on this day 274 k, 70 k more than the last 10 years' average of 204 k,
- Extent loss to date 77 million km2, 0.71 million (10.8%) GREATER than the 10 year average of 6.56 million km2 by this day.
- Extent is 1,097 k more than 2016 on this day,
- Extent is 36 k more than 1982 on this day,

- 41.1% of the average ice loss of the season done, with on average 74 days to the average minimum date of 19 Feb.

The Perils of Projections

We are into the period of maximum daily extent loss. This makes projections even more perilous.

Average melt from this date would produce a minimum of 1.68 million km2, 0.46 million less than the record low on 1st March 2017, which would be astonishing.
______________________________________________________________

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 09, 2019, 07:10:47 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,969,220 km2(December 8, 2019)

A fifth day of extreme extent gains that seem ever-increasing.

- Extent gain on this day 164 k, 107k more than the average gain of 57k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 7,005 k, 442k (6.7%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,563 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 720 k more than 2016
- Extent is 89k more than 2018
- Extent is 16 k (0.1%)  more than the 2010's average.

- on average 66.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 94 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.25 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.37 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.5  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.

Very cold in Hudson Bay - extreme sea ice gains there contributing to the extreme sea ice gains over the last 5 days?
_____________________________________________________________
With luck this laptop will be operational today so NSIDC Area & Extent can be looked at to see from whence all these sea ice gains are coming.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 08, 2019, 11:40:00 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 10,805,648 km2(December 7, 2019)

A fourth day of extreme extent gains.

- Extent gain on this day 153 k, 99k more than the average gain of 54k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 6,841 k, 335k (5.2%) MORE than the average gain to date of 6,506 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 628 k more than 2016

- Extent is 7 k more than 2018
- Extent is 85 k (0.8%)  less than the 2010's average.

- on average 66.1 % of extent gain for the the season done, 95 days on average to maximum.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.14 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.26 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

Diminishing +ve SST anomalies.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.3  to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. However, these +ve temperature anomalies appear to have no effect on sea ice gains.

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front, which are probably contributing to the recent large and even extreme extent gains.
_____________________________________________________________

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 10:10:13 PM »
The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are some more EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

Okhotsk Sea             Too early for comment.
St Lawrence Sea    ----- ditto -----

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 10:07:55 PM »
The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are some more EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

CENTRAL ARCTIC

This year the ESS and the Beaufort seemed to be more part of the Big Chukchi bite, but one year is only one year.

Beaufort Sea Late freeze but finished on time.
East Siberian Sea (ESS)    ----- ditto -----

Central Arctic Sea Was way above 2010's average extent most of the year. Is solidly at maximum in contrast with recent years.

And yet - experience from the MOSAIC project and Mike Horn's skiing holiday says the ice is thin and broken up.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 09:21:41 PM »
The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are some more EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

ATLANTIC FRONT
Greenland Sea
Distinguishing any trend from the ups and downs of ice export from the CAB via the Fram Strait is impossible for me. So simply look at the graph.

Barents Sea Freezing early, but a long way to g.

Kara Sea A tale of 2 halves - late October freeze, very rapid November freeze.

Laptev Freeze started very late and finished only a few days late- Extent now  100%.

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: December 07, 2019, 09:09:18 PM »
I was hoping I would be dead before someone would do something really, really stupid with AI and robots.

Unfortunately, progress has been far too rapid in developing capability.
Some general somewhere.......

45
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 07, 2019, 09:01:56 PM »
Yeah not things you would ever think you would see.

And no, i live in the city so i don´t have much direct reports myself (just that the ducks are having new chicks in september which is a little later then usual).

They were new then so that was rather late in september or beyond the normal system.
I have seen chickens starting in february years ago in years where we have an early spring that starts after a balmy version of winter. 

So yesterday i walk around a corner and there is momma duck with 4 new ones. Real new ones about 2 weeks old. In december! Guess

That was quite unexpected. Wonder how well they will do. We had one coldish day and for the rest it is balmy. Tree looks like it is in spring mode too...

BTW location netherlands.
Quacky weather? (sorry for that)

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 08:20:12 PM »
The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

CANADIAN SEAS
Baffin Bay
A surprise this year - early to melt, late to freeze. Will the maximum also be a record low?
Of interest (at least to me) is that over the years the March sea ice maximum is declining much faster than the September minimum (which still does not reach zero). This is in contrast to the overall trend in the Arctic Seas. The Atlantic warmth is pushing north?

Canadian Archipelago (CAA) Is frozen completely pretty much on schedule, or maybe 5 days late?

Chukchi Sea Freezing is late, very late, but looks like the only question is how late the complete freeze-up will be.

Hudson Bay Freeze started late but is now playing catch-up with a vengeance. But will final freeze be early, on time or late?
[/quote]

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 07:23:45 PM »
The 2019-20 Freezing season is about half-done in elapsed days, and about 2/3rds done in extent gains. During the freezing season, AREA is a lagging indicator, so here are EXTENT graphs looking at the whole freezing season - September to March

Total Arctic Extent Shows that extent at maximum is declining much more slowly than extent at minimum. 2019-20 shows no sign of breaking that trend.

PACIFIC GATEWAY
Bering Sea
Too early to make any useful comment.
Chukchi Sea Freezing is late, very late, but looks like the only question is how late the complete freeze-up will be.

48
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: December 07, 2019, 06:01:28 PM »
Looks like Cyclone Belna will do some damage on Madagascar

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 07, 2019, 04:03:26 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 December 2019 (5 day trailing average) 9,430,332 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 9,430,332    km2      
-263,872    km2   <   2010's average.
-330,827    km2   <   2018
-660,630    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change    90    k   gain
Peripheral Seas    6    k   gain
Central Seas__    35    k   gain
Other Seas___    49    k   gain
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    5    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    23    k   gain
Greenland____   -21    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    6    k   gain
CAA_________    5    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    26    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    48    k   gain

Daily gain 90 k, 24 k MORE than the 2010's average of 66 k.

- 2019 Area now less than the 2010's average by 264 k.
- 2019 Area is less than 2018 by 331 k
- 2019 is more than 2016 by 812 km2
- 2019 area 5th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +1.1  to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days, -

Winds still highly variable in strength and direction- especially at the Pacific Gateway and Atlantic Front which are probably contributing to the recent large extent gains. You can see the switch from gains to losses and vice versa by looking at the previous days data in the tables.

Note also 48k gain in Hudson Bay
________________________________________________________________________

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 07, 2019, 03:20:06 PM »
Well found, dnem

A pity that most of the powers that presume to govern us prefer Binntho's view.

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