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Messages - Grubbegrabben

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Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 03, 2019, 08:37:54 PM »
There’s been predictions of global warming causing more frequent hurricanes and/or more powerful hurricanes but I cannot remember anything about stalling hurricanes.

We’ll be in for more such surprises as the planet warms.

I have a very faint memory about a post that refered to a report stating that global warming may make landfalls rarer due to more powerful ridges blocking movement over land. In light of recent events (Harvey, Dorian) the report might be almost correct, the hurricanes stall just off- or almost on-shore with dramatic effects. I'll search a bit and edit this post if I find the report.


Did you watch their videos?

You seem to have sarcastically dismissed what I thought seemed like sound science. I only considered the price point to be the possible problem factor.

One of their videos even shows you around their test site.

The lack of news updates on their site is why I'm here, and somewhat concerning, but sometimes a proof of concept could take a couple of years to get to a point of results to announce. Maybe they're waiting on patents/investor deals.  Maybe they're out of money.

But is the science wrong? You don't think you can extract hydrogen this way?

Sorry about the sarcasm, but it is so obviously fake that I couldn't help myself. No I don't think this is remotely possible.

The videos contain basically no information (viewed both). The test site is a bunch of rusty pipes and a few fuse boxes with a "Proton Technologies" sticker. The only comment on one video is "Did you prove at least some of the concept on your Superb testing facility? Especially the concentration of Hydrogen in the waste gas ISC processes generate? So far the known numbers are around 1.5-2%"

On the other video comments are disabled.

I am a programmer but work closely with electronic and mechanical design teams. My gut feeling is that a device containing a hydrogen separator membrane, a microvawe radio energy source, a hydrogen locator, a hydrogen pump and various other stuff located INSIDE an oil well @500C is well beyond any engineering capacity known to mankind.

The Venera capsules sent by the russians to Venus did operate at 500C for like 20-50 minutes so to some extent it is possible I guess.

This looks very much like a scam to me. They got a decent chunk of government money in dec -17 and after that they have zero "news" on their website. Also, they are mentioned on the same sites that report on the e-cat...

This is an extract from their website (that made me laugh out loud):

"Oxygen-enhanced air is produced at the wellhead, and then injected deep into the reservoir through an ‘Oxinjection Well‘. Gases, coke and heavier hydrocarbons are oxidized in place (a process known as In-Situ Combustion). Targeted portions of the reservoir become very warm. Where necessary, the temperatures are heightened further through radio frequency emissions. Eventually, oxidation temperatures exceed 500°C. This extreme heat causes the nearby hydrocarbons, and any surrounding water molecules, to break apart. Both the hydrocarbons and the H2O become a temporary source of free hydrogen gas.After creating free hydrogen, one or more Hygeneration wells extracts the elemental hydrogen, using Proton’s patented Hygenerator. The Hygenerator is a dynamic down-hole device that uses feedback from inside the wells to intelligently locate hydrogen. A selective membrane inside the Hygenerator filters the gases, and a pump moves pure hydrogen gas up to the wellhead"

So, blow oxygen into an oil well, add some sort of microwave oven and harvest hydrogen gas using basically a magical wand called a Hygenerator. Yeah, right. If this works, it will be just slightly less complicated to operate than a mission to mars (imo).

Edit: The last news was dec -17 and not -18 as in my original post.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 14, 2019, 10:34:40 PM »
But possibly the other intelligent species hadn't evolved with hands.  It's hard to develop an industrial civilization with only paws or tentacles or flippers.

Yes, one perfectly fine answer to the Fermi paradox. We are missing us in time.

But then there is the big number of possibilities and you start thinking again...

The lower probability, an earth-like planet in 1 out of 33 star systems, yields about 3 billion earth-like planets in our galaxy...

Even if there are a million explorers out there that travel at near light speed, they will only look in our solar system once every 15-50 000 years or so (avg distance between stars is 5 light years, 3 billion places to look, yes my calculation is probably wrong).

The number of possibilities is so large that another intelligent spieces out there is very likely. However, the vastness of space makes it unlikely to meet them anytime soon. A bit sad, who wouldn't like to shake the flipper or tentacle of another species?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 09, 2019, 02:46:21 PM »
Sorry for off-topic but food supplies globally are at an all-time high. Read the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (released July 11). Why post a doomsday prediction for food supply when there are zero facts to back it up?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Null School Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
« on: August 07, 2019, 01:27:48 AM »
One "red" anomaly might be 2 C and another 5 C, whereas 2 C vs 5 C typically show as much different colors on the non-anomaly map.

The anomalies do not even match the numbers (hourly forecast europe). I think the reanalyzer needs some fixing.

Edit: Sorry this was maybe the wrong thread.


I know I can stop. Thank you for pointing that out.

And I'm inclined to believe you that many here are involved in various ways to combat the problem.  For those so engaged...kudos and thank you !!!!

Does that mean we shouldn't be curious about how we can do better and optimize our efforts?? I don't think so.

For example....if someone wants to post a petition for others to sign, should ASIF have a place for that? Is ASIF intentionally apolitical? I see political discussion threads here and Neven engages there. His political views are quite similar to mine.

Anyway...I'm glad you're engaging and encouraging some kind of activism. Yesterday I emptied the clip on my 60 Bay Area contacts and encouraged them to attend the Sunrise protest at the DNC in August. The youngsters are pushing for a climate debate.

In 2017 I think there were someone posting endless "we need to call politicians, talk to journalists, engage people" bla bla bla. It is very tiresome, please, there are hundreds of organizations and groups to join that do exactly that. There is absolutely no point trying to turn ASIF into something it isn't. Please feel free to leave and pursue that goal elsewhere. Bye.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 28, 2019, 10:25:09 PM »
No idea what one calls this pattern but 250 hPa on nullschool is pretty impressive! (or a mess if you are looking for a nice rational jet stream!!),88.54,568

Does anyone have a picture of what it should look like, just for those of us who don't exactly know. I'm assuming much more tight and circular?

Use the link but flip the globe and look at the south pole.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 20, 2019, 11:41:53 PM »
This might belong in the "Stupid questions" thread but here we go: Solar panel (PV) installations are currently subsidized in my country so people are installing quite a lot of them.

My question: Is it possible to install too much solar power in an area? Is it by design possible to deliver power upstream should the production in an area be larger than the consumption? The first obstacle should be the local high-to-low power transformer station - or will the existing transformer stations gladly just work in reverse without modification?

I know a bit about electrical stuff but have no clue about the inner workings of a power grid.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 01, 2019, 04:58:16 PM »
The ice will float on both types of water. It will not be immersed. Although the freeboard might be slightly less.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: July 01, 2019, 04:35:47 PM »
If water (A) is added in cracks between ice floes it will displace the water below (C).
It will not magically float on top (B).
Even if it doesnt mix.

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: June 10, 2019, 11:13:43 PM »
I submitted a suggestion that the clock widget on the company intranet should be changed from AM/PM notation to the more common 24-hour format. After all it's only used in 5 countries; the United States, Canada (except Québec), Australia, New Zealand, and the Philippines. Not much response (guess where my employer is based :-).

Interesting view on Sentinel Hub on west Greenland. That looks like a lot of water discharging downhill from melt ponds? I searched a bit but couldn't find quite so many melt river features even in the middle of summer (tbh a very sloppy search going back just a few years). That area has been quite warm some time now and it's starting to show.

Edit: Adjust gain to 0.7 and gamma to 1.3 if you follow the link to the sentinel image below. It seems embedded in the link but it doesn't work for me.,B02,B03&maxcc=24&gain=0.7&gamma=1.3&time=2018-11-01%7C2019-05-27&atmFilter=&showDates=false&showImage

Policy and solutions / Re: What type of transportation do you use?
« on: April 14, 2019, 01:42:52 AM »
We have 2 ICE vehicles and drive a lot, both me and my wife. Commute to work, drop off and pick up at schools and different sports activities. In total we drive about 3000 km/month.

The rest / Re: How Educated are we as a Forum
« on: March 31, 2019, 12:29:43 AM »
Advanced education tends to focus on narrowly defined areas of expertise. It is all too common for experts in very narrowly defined areas to be woefully uninformed in broader areas of knowledge.

I have a masters degree in Computer Science and Engineering. My "expert" area is embedded software.

At first glance, this might seem like a very narrowly defined area. However, "my" software is currently running: Bakery ovens, Protein separation systems, Smart card readers, Allergy diagnosis systems, Wind shear observation stations and so on. And before writing the software for those systems I had to gain at least some knowledge of the problem domain. I do not claim to know how to bake the perfect bread, but I do claim that the oven software is doing exactly what the bakery needs in order to make the perfect bread.

During these years I had colleagues doing mechanical and electrical design as well and they too need to know what the end product is supposed to do.

I have met so-called experts but so far no one "woefully uninformed" in broader areas of knowledge. In my experience, people with advanced education are usually very informed in many areas outside their own area of expertise. Except maybe economists.

Policy and solutions / Re: BAU until they peel my cold dead hands from it
« on: February 19, 2019, 01:56:19 AM »

Tesla gives westerners the choice between an environmentally destructive lifestyle, and a slightly less environmentally destructive lifestyle. We should be moving away from the suburban lifestyle, but Elon Musk gives us the impression we can maintain the status quo and fight climate change by simply buying one of his cars. But in order for us to realistically combat climate, purchasing a car should only happen when you have NO OTHER OPTION. 

Absolutely true, but I think not Musk's fault.  Global demand for automobile transportation is enormous, and there isn't a blessed thing Musk could do to stop that.  No billionaire could.  Until there are needed policy and cultural changes, the only way to keep people from wanting individual cars is for them to be too poor to afford them, or make the cars far more expensive.  Neither approach is likely to win political favor.

I read an interesting article in Time magazine a while back (can't seem to locate the copy, sorry) which went somewhat in-depth in the future of electric cars. Once they go reliably self-driving there is no reason for it to be parked outside your house for 90% of the time. Share it with others and it becomes the ultimate, environmentally friendly mass-transportation system ever built. Ok some people would rather have their own car. But personally, if I had the option to just buy transportation on demand I wouldn't hesitate one second. I don't think urban mass transport (subways, trams, buses) can ever replace the car, but I do think a network of self-driving cars can make the others obsolete.

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: January 16, 2019, 12:52:00 AM »
New report from Chalmers on Swedish air travel.
In Swedish but with an English summary:

The greenhouse gas emissions from Swedish inhabitants’ air travel is now about equivalent to the Swedish emissions from car use. The annual emissions from air travel are now about 1.1-ton CO2-eqv. per Swedish inhabitant which is about five times higher than the global average.

Since there are statistics for about everything (and I was a bit curious), it can be noted that the Swedish forestry industry cut down about 36.5 million m3 of trees for construction purposes (2017). The conversion factor to CO2-eqv is about 190 kg CO2 to 1 m3 wood which sums up to 7M ton CO2. So more than half of the annual emissions (10M ton) from air travel is stored in IKEA furniture. Let's hope they last.

Obviously a joke, hopefully people will realize how stupid it is to travel by air.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 11, 2019, 12:46:51 AM »
Car makers to spend $300 billion on EV development. Yes I had to read that number twice as well.

The $300 billion that automakers have earmarked to put electric vehicles into mass production in China, Europe and North America is greater than the economies of Egypt or Chile

Almost one-third of the industry’s EV spending total, about $91 billion, is being committed by the Volkswagen Group
VW’s staggering EV budget dwarfs that of its closest competitor, Germany’s Daimler AG, which has committed $42 billion. In comparison, General Motors Co. — the No. 1 U.S. automaker — has said it plans to spend a combined $8 billion on electric and self-driving vehicles.

I have a feeling VW is going all in. $91 bn is a serious amount of money (annual sales are about $200 bn). Hopefully this means that at least the transport sector is relatively quickly going electric.


Observation: Facit, a Swedish company making calculators. In 1970, the company had reached its peak with more than 14,000 employees worldwide. In 1971, modern Japanese-made calculators started to seriously disrupt the industry, instantly making Facit's mechanical calculators obsolete. As a result, Facit went out of business virtually overnight. In Swedish business theory, this is called "the Facit trap" (Swedish:Facitfällan), inability to follow a technology shift, even if skill and money is available.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: January 02, 2019, 02:03:11 AM »
A billion plus people wanna move:

Thank goodness for our thousands of nuclear weapons and the two great oceans between this continent and Eurasia.

From the study: "...desire is also up significantly in Northern America, where 14% want to migrate after years of remaining flat near 10%. This is almost entirely driven by increases in the U.S. in 2016 and 2017. The one in six Americans (16%) in 2017 who said they would like to move to another country is the highest measure to date...". Yeah, nuke yourselves out. Thanks ;-)

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: December 04, 2018, 11:45:53 PM »
When will I get credit for harping on this continuously... probably never but that's OK  8)
You would get much more credit for focusing on important snow issues if you didn't insist on confounding this with impending glaciation.

bbr2314 post #5 (out of 1515). The only change is the expected timespan. Down from a few centuries to... next week?


The Hansen maps show declines in temperatures surrounding areas affected by the NATL cold pool, with anomalies increasing (in a negative direction) as the Greenland melt accelerates.

Could the lingering Hudson Bay ice and the very cold Quebec this summer also be a result of this, and if the positive feedback continues accelerating, perhaps it's possible that higher elevations of both Scotland and Quebec see re-glaciation over the next few centuries, while Greenland gradually melts out?

On topic: Snow cover being more than 1 standard deviation off compared to historical data - is that such a big deal? For a normal  distribution only 68% of the samples are expected to be within +/- 1 SD. If the trend over the years is positive even more samples would be expected to be over +1 SD.

Thank you Espen and Wipneus.
Here is the (English) link to the webcam, if anybody needs it.

Chrome will issue a security alert when trying to click on the link.

Copy the link adress ""

directly into the address field to get there.
(I have no idea what's wrong with the embedded link)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 07, 2018, 09:25:48 PM »
Temps in Tiksi, on the Laptev shore, have shot up in the last three days. This is brutal heat.

Further down the pipeline,  pataphorically speaking, the Atlantic Krakens blowing hot steamy breaths in quick succession, determined to drown Nevens arid climate herbages, and sending vast amounts of food via euro rail to keep his progeny in the Siberian gulags well fed into the foreseeable future.

I consulted my local Shaman for a translation. What he said is "Atlantic warm moist air is blowing into the arctic while the euro trail feeds warmth into north Siberia. And Neven has the best herbal teas in town". Close enough for me  ;D

(Also I assume"pataphorically" should be"metaphorically")

Edit: Apparently pataphorically is actually a word. You learn something new every day.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 05, 2018, 08:47:38 PM »
12z GFS down to 959

Reposting what bbr2314 said but with this additional quote from the Wikipedia topic "Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012"

On August 6, the extratropical cyclone reached a peak intensity of 962 mbar (28.4 inHg), while centered about halfway between Alaska and the North Pole.[1] At this point, the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2012 was the strongest summer Arctic storm on record, since the beginning of records in 1979.

Also screenshot from Nullschool below. This happening in early June as compared to August 6 should have some implications...?

Edit: The location/path of the cyclone does not seem as detrimental as 2012, but I know way to little about this to develop the reasoning further.

I'm not trying to hijack the discussion but growth as in increased value of goods and services produced in an economy is sometimes seen as something utterly evil and destructive. "We have only one planet, eternal growth cannot exist" etc etc. This assumes that all growth is enabled by increased consumption of energy and raw materials. Does this have to be true?

My youngest kid has embraced the digital revolution. His toys are mostly virtual (stuff bought in computer games such as "pokemon go"). This market has grown tremendeously. And creating these billions of new dollars of growth, I assume, consume but a fraction of the raw materials compared to if it had been new physical items. On top of that, zero hazardous waste once the "product" is discarded.

Just wanted to add my 5c. Proceed with the capitalism vs growth topic, it's interesting :)

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: May 01, 2018, 10:53:58 PM »
I know it may sound incorrect, but in fact, impending re-glaciation is WORSE than global warming. Global warming is a distant problem that the public perceives to be irrelevant to current times, while rapidly increasing hemispheric snowfall is a phenomenon happening TODAY

I am beginning to become concerned we may see major crop failures in the Plains and Midwest this year. The forecast for the next 10 days shows snow and cold *worsening* across the northern tier of the US -- it is literally an equivalent to the Day After Tomorrow relative to the Aprils we have seen since the 1800s. This is seriously BEYOND and somehow the only people who know about this seem to be on this forum

Humanity's industrial complexes will fail extremely rapidly as the grain-growing regions of the "First World" are subsumed in snow and ice through May and June

At that point, we sacrifice June to melt as well. There is still probably enough heat to ensure annual melt-out in most regions, but if we get to 9,000-12,000KM^3 of SWE... there may not be. Long before the latter point, harvests in the grain belts will begin failing, perhaps the collapse of agriculture/ensuing drop in aerosols from industrial collapse would be sufficient to spike global temps / cause bluest Arctic event yet / result in ensuing spiral.

The various collapse and doomsday predictions that you keep repeating are a bit boring and may be more appreciated on another forum. If you chose to stick by them please at least try to base them on some sort of facts or evidence and not just fantasies.

The high SWE seems to melt out pretty quickly. Extent is within 1 SD (normal) so I think the grain belt will be safe this year as well. At least the USDA statistics show nothing more than a slight/moderate delay in the planting season. Winter wheat might even have higher yields this year thanks to the extra moisture.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Land snow cover effect on sea ice
« on: April 21, 2018, 01:40:59 AM »
The impact of this will be similar to what caused the French Revolution but extremely worse. I suspect countries like China and Russia will survive the chaos due to emerging absolutism, but order will quickly collapse in developing countries dependent on food imports. At that point the US will either make the same transition as China and Russia have recently completed, or it will fall apart like what will probably happen to most of Europe.

That will take another year or two as hopes for a reprieve are dashed by a worse recurrence the subsequent winter, as sea ice returns to new records and the snows advance higher and farther than ever before. But by then, the third world will be spilling hundreds of millions of starving refugees into Europe. The situation in Central America could be similar.

At that point, industry will cease to function in large parts of the planet. Think "Genghis Khan" but with White Walkers instead of Mongols.

As order decays, there will probably be mass death in most of the third world that spills into areas that are reachable by land and undefended by massive force. I think command-style economies may be able to retrench into southern areas and build enough new infrastructure in time to circumvent the inevitable but in countries where this is impossible due to excessive bureaucracy the entirety will fail.

... ok you are just another troll, after this I'm 100% sure. Please leave and go find another forum to post this kind of total nonsense. Thank you.

Permafrost / Re: 2018 North America SWE Prediction Thread
« on: April 16, 2018, 06:03:19 PM »
The red line is my guess. The green line is when we fall below normal peak SWE of approx 1,100KM^3. I believe this will happen around 5/15 (approximately two months later than normal).

April melt usually results in a SWE loss of about 500 KM^3. May melt usually results in a loss of 300KM^3. And June takes care of almost all the rest (another 200 KM^3 or so).

Mass loss typically declines due to less snow available to melt. In fact, April usually has more losses than May, simply due to this reason. But even April usually only sees a loss of 500KM^3 (month to date, April has seen an increase, btw. lol)

I anticipate we will see about 100KM^3 of melt in April relative to 4/1. That is 1/5 of normal. But May is likely to be a different story. Even if May is 2X normal, that is only a 600KM^3 loss. 1.5X normal April losses would be a 750KM^3 loss. Something in that range would seem reasonable.
Snow melt amount is dictated by snow available to melt, when the warm weather arrives. The more snow there is, the more snow will melt. If all this extra snow remains on the ground on May 1st, May could easily see 4x or 6x of normal melt.
I've hand-drawn a random line just to counter yours, though I feel that melt could go even faster. Actually, it mostly depends on new snows coming along, rather than on the existing snow.
To get better answers, snow distribution should be examined, with climatology dictating when each location is expected to lose its snow cover, and bearing in mind that deeper snow does not substantially last longer in a given location compared to normal snow unless that location is very protected from external warmth somehow. But as the  geographical database is not available afaik, and as I doubt this merits such an investment of one's time, I'll settle for this guess.
My only question to you bbr - should you turn out to be very wrong by the end of summer, and the snow doesn't last much longer than usual, despite its unusual depth, will you still continue to preach the coming ice age?

This begets another major question. Snowpack has been shown to have a shielding effect for ice cover. Will a SWE anomaly of 2-4X normal shield Hudson Bay substantially more than normal, creating additional feedbacks as we head deeper into summer?
I think you may be confusing snow cover over sea ice - which has a substantial shielding effect - and land-based snow - does it have any shielding effect at all, I'm not sure.

This was interesting so I googled around a bit and found a good source (in Swedish). This graph sums it up quite good. In Kiruna, a Swedish town north of the polar circle (67N) with about 5 weeks of midnight sun, the snow melts completely within one month starting mid April, regardless of initial depth. Average temps in May are between -1C and +7C.

Edit: A word

Walking the walk / Re: Pat yourself on the back
« on: March 20, 2018, 06:27:35 PM »
So I have now LED in each place where it was possible.

I also tried to do this but noticed that I'm sensitive to the flickering light. Most LED lights just do a half wave AC conversion (it's a LED, duh) resulting in a 50 Hz strobe light. Some people (including me) are sensitive to this, some don't notice anything. I have searched the web periodically but so far no results, except professional studio LED lamps for photographers (which are insanely expensive and not suited at all for home lightning). All light bulb replacement LED lamps I've found so far flicker.

Anyone else having this problem and found a solution?

Note: Some LED lamps have a wall transformer and produce DC current for the LED light, I have a few desk/window lamps like this and they are of course flicker free.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: September 13, 2017, 11:43:19 PM »
I've been checking the CIFFC site from time to time to see what's up with the Canada wildfires. I just noticed that the burned hectares number has jumped a lot the last month. Also the 2016 numbers are gone (column zeroed out). Maybe just some simple mistake? However, the 2017 area burned seems a bit worrying.

View the "Today's sitrep" here Numbers at the bottom of the report.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 23, 2017, 10:23:53 PM »
Forecast for Houston/Texas from Idk how good the hour by hour rainfall forecast is for such an event but it seems like that record from 1989 could be broken.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: August 04, 2017, 09:22:03 PM »
First post here, hello all!

The typhoon Noru has been staggering around the E. Pacific like a drunken sailor for quite a while. Been watching Nullshool and the Japan Meteorogical Agency site to see where it ends up.

Looks like it will make/just made landfall in s. Japan. It will hardly move at all during the next 24 hours. I know my house wouln't last 5 minutes but I assume this area gets hit by typhoons once in a while so the infrastructure should be able to handle it. But still, 24+ hours is a long time with typhoon winds hammering down outside. And 10 metre waves...  and 60 mm rain/hour.


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