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Messages - Hyperion

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 22, 2018, 11:38:36 AM »
16 to 21 July. Apart from the major disintegration of the pac-ruski quadrant, major changes appear to be compaction into the CAA garlic press and Svalbard region killing grounds.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 22, 2018, 04:06:52 AM »
When the ice is a fractured and mobile pack of porous honeycombed ice, as per today's arctic, there's a lot more complexity than a one dimensional conduction calculation can give good approximations from s-wing.
Like the thermo karst effect. The densest fresh water is 4-6 degC. So it is quite normal for the top of waterlogged cavities to be at zero degrees, or even frozen over,  whilst deeper down there is warmer water burrowing deeper. You might call this subsurface micro-meltponding

Under the floe a similar but salinity driven process works as warmer saltier water below is exchanged and turned over as it gives energy to the ice and is freshened by melt in a non uniform process. One can even envisage outward flow of freshened melt from the edges of floes drawing up warmer more saline stuff from below in the middle. Exactly like the process tunneling under the ice shelves of Antarctica and Greenland.
Algal growth into the porous bottom of the ice absorbs solar energy, metabolic heat and antifreeze secretionsthat lower the melting point still further, increases porosity, and of course warm salty water rises.
These convection processes should vastly increase the   thermal transfer through the average 1m ice.

And then there is radiative energy transfered in microwave and ultraviolet spectra that ice is near transparent to.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 21, 2018, 10:45:55 AM »
...the factual claims you keep making are large, strange and without evidence, and I see it as my duty to point this out before this forum becomes a fantasy free-for-all.
Quite. As far as I can tell from Hyperion's ramblings, warm air currents are supposed to magically cause bottom melt without top melt, so the ice surface stays dry.  A contention that's trivially disproved with a large dry martini and a hairdryer.
Actually proven with a handful of salt, some ice cubes and some water to float them, while you use your hairdryer Peter. Its how everyone did freezers before electric ones.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 21, 2018, 07:59:06 AM »
Really there is one world ocean. With Antarctica in the middle of it. Since for most of the last few million years, the Arctic has been an icelocked pond with almost no communication with the world ocean, its probably quite fair to call it a deep brackish tidal lagoon or estuary. My point in pointing this out is that at only 2.7% of the earths surface and less than half of that in annual insolation. Insolation is no where near as important as the energy coming in and out from surrounding landmasses.
I wrote an extensive post about this on the melting thread.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 20, 2018, 04:11:52 PM »
<snip, no endless quoting, please; N.>

Binntho, this is the third time you have appeared to be deliberately wasting forum space and my time by claiming that I am making baseless claims, and demanding evidence belligerently while quoting me providing that evidence in the same post. Please read Wikipedia's article on the Arctic ocean for yourself. And the references provided there as to why oceanographers describe it as an estuary. Which is a body of lower and often  stratified salinity water where one or more riverine freshwater entries mix with ocean water before entering the ocean through a constricted exit.

<snip, stop playing the victim, please; N.>

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 20, 2018, 10:42:33 AM »
You really should expect the majority of the ice surface in the estuary to be dry in the current regime Tor. Ice conducts heat better than water. And with the consistent high atmospheric energy input over the whole estuary surface. The salinity differential bottom to top. Its a bottom melt surface freeze paradigm we are in. Remember the Arctic Estuary is only 2.7% of the earths surface. Insolation directly on the estuary is not significant in a thin, young ice regime.

Wikipedia:
The Arctic Ocean is the smallest and shallowest of the world's five major oceans.[1] The International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) recognizes it as an ocean, although some oceanographers call it the Arctic Mediterranean Sea or simply the Arctic Sea, classifying it a mediterranean sea or an estuary of the Atlantic Ocean.[2][

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 19, 2018, 11:02:38 PM »
Those were 16,17,18,19 1000hpa winds and temperature.
This is today.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 19, 2018, 10:42:19 PM »
So massive thickening in the CAB, so I presume melt season somehow ended already?

i think its just the ice compacting.
Yes. There has been strong winds and heat coming in on the Pacific side for a few days and a ring of small cyclones around the Russian coast and a larger one in Chukchi-Beaufort.
The big area of blue at the eastern end of the Chukchi is where the remnant Beaufort circulation is. That's quickly going poof. So where the compaction is happening isn't at all great for the ice surviving. Its been shifted to where warm salty Atlantic water is available at shallow depth and its also vulnerable to wave mixing and breaking from the Atlantic.
And lined up for the Fram, Nares, and CAA export and kill zone.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 19, 2018, 07:19:03 AM »
The maps are here:
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/smos/png/

I've used the ones ending in _hvnorth_rfi_l1c.png, though I don't know why they differ from the _hvnorth_l1c.png ones, nor do I know if there is any reason to prefer one over the other.

By inspection, they look similar but not identical. I'm guessing the "rfi" ones have some extra processing but that's just a guess. Does anyone know?
The rfi version has the radio frequency interference from high powered radar systems processed out of it. I've been posting the plain unadulterated version. Call me quirky, but I prefer raw data feeds as little processed as possible. It seems to be outside the pack that gets any and only occasional effect anyway. And I guess I kind of like seeing when and where these probably mainly military radar systems are being used. ::)

The last seven days. With a funky fade between frames and a little enlargement, seems to help visually track the changes.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 17, 2018, 10:16:31 PM »
What is protecting the ice is the cooler fresh water layer that is causing the warm Atlantic Water current to move below it.  The stratification is keeping the warm current from acting upon the ice.

There is enough heat in the mid level layer to melt out the ice several times over.  should that stratification break down and allow mixing, as has now happened in the Barents, 'Atlantification' would take place throughout the Arctic.

Apparently the counter-cyclonic movement of the Beaufort Gyre is the only thing preventing the fresh water layer from flushing into the north Atlantic.

Should it slow and reverse as it used to do regularly prior to 2006, that warm water would come to the surface and obliterate the ice.

 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2349.msg163554.html#new   
It already has slowed right down and purged Cid. As discussed earlier. And the Beaufort lid freshwater store has been misleadingly reported as having increased in recent years in published papers by defining freshwater as the amount of water below 34psu. In the early 2000s it was around 22psu in the Beaufort surface layer. Now 29psu or above.
The winds waves and currents coming up between Greenland and Svalbard in the last month have even entrained the melt and beaufort lid coming out through the CAA and Labrador sea over the last month, and now are mixing it into the Atlantic inflow. This will allow the Atlantic inflow to stay near surface in the mixing zone, matching its salinity with the Pacific inflow and Atlantic surface water layers.
I think people should keep their speculation about this seasons end result to the threads st up for that purpose. It's driving away the more informed commentary with all the yabber based on irrelevant extent, making out the ice is in recovery or that its a slow melt year. This thread is supposed to be for recording the detailed situation as it happens. Is it not?

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 17, 2018, 09:52:06 PM »
I agree with you Ice Shield. For the last few years, especially during the last pronounced El Nino, I thought we were going to see a massive drop in the ice extent and each year I have been completely wrong.  I am very amazed at the resilience ice pack post 2012. Even the ocean currents in the arctic are much cooler than I had expected to see. I suppose the nonstop clouds and fog are doing an ample job at protecting the ice. Though, and I'm sure I'm totally wrong here, part of me wonders if the water up north is as cold as it is due to much more bottom melt than anticipated.

That said, the pack is certainly not in great shape and like what it once was. While I think we will hobble along in the same pattern and we won't see an ice-free year until at least the 2030's, I think that one year with ideal conditions conducive to melting, like 2012, will devastate the pack and the true extent of the broken flows will become apparent and more pronounced. But for now I will sit and watch and try to figure out wtf is going on with our climate.
We are having a lot of meltwater and melting floes dispersed out into the periphery and out of the basin by the anticlockwise cyclonic rotation. This also causes ekman suction which draws up saltier waters from below, enhancing bottom melting, increasing warm subsurface inflows from the pacific and atlantic, and reducing the temperature of the water that the ice is melting in.
This creates a feedback increasing atmospheric heat transfer in at low level, by enhancing the temperature difference between the land that has more low level heat and moisture being drawn into the basin over its coasts by the cyclonic activity. And the cooler than normal ice kill zones nearby, with the ice being flung out into them. The extensive fog and low cloud is not just trapping outgoing heat, but is a symptom of very large energy input into the ice and rapid melting .
Latest US Navy Beaufort animation.seems to need a click to animate.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 16, 2018, 01:52:06 AM »



Quote

The polar cell has in effect collapsed, and a Ferrell circulation is in effect with low level incoming winds feeding lows, and their upper level outflows feeding high pressure systems covering the central north Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

So, we have low pressure above the Arctic and a high pressure system in the Atlantic and the central north Pacific? We do have those every summer. What is the big deal? Attached is the average MSLP for 1979-2015 July.

Its not so usual for the entire ocean basins of the whole world to be solidly covered, by one giant high pressure system each, for over a month Cid. Except the South Pacific which is wider and it hasn't been so consistent. There's a big difference between long term means and the size and persistence of these features.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 16, 2018, 01:40:49 AM »
Some worthy views through the fog of the state of the ice in the deep central basin. Better from Aqua modis than Terra today
Remember each pixel is 250m. So you won't see gaps that small. And most of what look like large rounded cohesive floes are loosely glued together rubble. Thats the mottled grey look if you zoom in.
Even the relatively solid looking patch towards the CAA from the pole has that look. And its in an area that has been compacted by the recent ring of cylones around the outside of the basin.
Wideview,
North Beaufort, 80+nth, near the pole of inaccessibility,
Svalbard to pole on left bottom corner.
Compressed patch off the CAA

Click to enlarge.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 15, 2018, 08:47:43 PM »
Attached the strongly enhanced graph of today. This year looks like Croatia: Even with a huge deficit it seems to be dangerous till the last moment ...

Indeed.
Quote
H: I believe this is another symptom of the cyclonic weather patterns effect of dispersing the pack. While the winds may be spiraling in to the cyclones, the ice and meltwater motion is substantially to the right of wind direction. People are used to watching a pack that compresses and consolidates itself by clockwise rotation of drift and overall weather. This is not the case this year.

The polar cell has in effect collapsed, and a Ferrell circulation is in effect with low level incoming winds feeding lows, and their upper level outflows feeding high pressure systems covering the central north Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 15, 2018, 08:11:40 PM »
All peripheral regions of the core pack will be hit very hard the next 10 days. The steady but non-obvious melting is going to result in most of the FYI "poofing" at once. Copernicus shows concentration drops starting across the peripheral CAB in earnest, as this "poofing" gets underway.

I think the other major thing to note is the resilience of the shore ice in the ESS. It has not drifted away from land as it normally does (this year, that happened in the Laptev, where it normally does not occur). Instead, it is the only apparent redoubt outside of the CAB with substantial and thick ice.

While it will probably melt down more til refreeze begins, I think a substantial portion will survive the summer, which is very abnormal (it may survive summer on occasion, but that usually comes when it is pulled toward the CAB with the general retreat. this year, it will survive IN PLACE).

When I look at this area of the ESAS, on SMOS and hycom thickness animations it is constantly changing day by day. Its a very shallow area inside the New Siberian islands. I believe this is another symptom of the cyclonic weather patterns effect of dispersing the pack. While the winds may be spiraling in to the cyclones, the ice and meltwater motion is substantially to the right of wind direction. People are used to watching a pack that compresses and consolidates itself by clockwise rotation of drift and overall weather. This is not the case this year. So this might in fact be a graveyard zone for glacial burgs and remnant deep keeled pressure ridge chunks, acting as a sort of garlic press for younger floes being jostled back and forth through it. Whether any of the burgs can survive the season is a good question. If there continues to be a feed of stray floes getting hung up here and chilling the local water as they melt, then they may. But there is almost 1000 km of shallow shelf water polewise here to warm substantially right through to November.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 15, 2018, 12:46:42 PM »
Here's 12, 13, 14 July of both SMASS and USNavThik.
In unadulterated, and reduced to 16 colour plots. These can be split into frames at ezgif.com
This looks like a better way to do this than gimps over sophisticated posterising stuff. If I hadn't had four computers stolen in the last 12 months, it would be a walk in the park to write a pixel counting Smasusnavthik plotter. Anyone who wants to try should have no problems. Just finish the edit by cropping at the 70 degree north line, as per top left corner, and resizing to match.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 15, 2018, 09:05:37 AM »
Well they have plenty of sub's and drones both above and below.
... no they don't.  They integrate what data is available, which is very very little.  It's predominantly a mathematical model driven by weather data, with assimilation of ice concentration data from NSIDC.
Well my SAS black-ops and Jane's military engineer friends worked on developing a lot of them. How much they use such not for public knowledge stuff to calibrate and verify their models we will almost certainly never know.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 15, 2018, 02:45:32 AM »
An even better way is to look at them both. And then compare, compare, compare to what has happened in the recent past.

That SMOS graph doesn't mean much if it isn't compared to the ones from 2007-2017.

I agree about the recent past. But if we are going to compare with previous years back to 2010 when SMOS started, then we have to remember that since 2013 the ice has been increasingly younger and more porous. Meaning years like 2012 would have far more meltponds, hence SMOS would have overestimated sea level, and underestimated ice volume. It should be far more accurate now.

But lets compare SMASS directly with US Navy thickness for the 13th of July.

It actually looks to me like the SMASUSnavthik ratio would give Area estimate closer to 10% coverage over most of the Pacific-American side of the pole.
Hmm. I'll pm Steven. If I resize these better and reduce the number of colours it should be easy to get accurate    smasusnathik figures and plots from them.

Edit: attached a few hours work with an unfamiliar gimp. May be usable.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 14, 2018, 05:43:31 PM »
Beaufort Sea ice movement 2018 June 1st - July13th
... [go to link to see Ice Shieldz's gif]
I see what appear to me to be several "Big Block" sort of floes in the Beaufort Sea.  Whether they melt or remain is one question.

If this is even remotely correct we are in for trouble

If the 'correctness' is remote enough, we're seeing a projection to mid September (and not late July).   ;D
The model run on twelfth July shows projection to the 20th July in the final frame. I don't know why this should surprise anyone. The weather has been absolutely as bad as it could be for ice survival. And certainly the US navy has the best resources for validation of their models

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 14, 2018, 05:32:18 PM »
If this is even remotely correct we are in for trouble

Well they have plenty of sub's and drones both above and below. As Wadhams was emphatic. Satellite's are no way as good as sonar for measuring ice thickness.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 14, 2018, 05:21:13 PM »
And the 13th.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 14, 2018, 12:39:53 AM »
Inbound very long period waves of over 500m wavelength, and over 100kmph velocity.
Further discussed on the SMOS thread. Considerable advance since yesterdays images posted there.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 13, 2018, 11:51:45 PM »

Today's SMOS, and the most famous pyramid wave images in the world. I strongly recommend reading the following paper, for help in understanding wave, land and wind interaction relevant to today's arctic.

http://rsnr.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/63/2/119

WHAT KIND OF A WAVE IS HOKUSAI’S GREAT WAVE OFF KANAGAWA?
by
JULYAN H. E. CARTWRIGHT
1,*AND HISAMI NAKAMURA
2,*
1Instituto Andaluz de Ciencias de la Tierra, CSIC–Universidad de Granada,
Campus Fuentenueva, E-18071 Granada, Spain
2Chuo University, 742-1 Higashi Nakano, Hachioji, Tokyo 192-0393, Japan

The great wave off Kanagawa by Katsushika Hokusai is probably the most famous image in
Japanese art. It depicts three boats in heavy seas on the point of encountering the eponymous
wave, while Mount Fuji is glimpsed in the distance. ;)

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 13, 2018, 10:58:12 PM »
The advantage SMOS has on thin and fragmented ice is its penetration of freshwater is good. Salinity in the water decreases penetration I the xband microwave frequency markedly. So clouds and fog have little influence, unlike with Amsr2. But the saltier meltponds that can cause it to see the sea level a fraction higher than it is.
But the influence of wave tilt, porous first year ice etc is likely to make the overestimation of sea level quite small. Especially with the surface  being pegged to below freezing point by the high salinity water melting the floes from below. These charts have shown little or no sign of exaggerated thinness from hot and wet coastal atmospheric influx to my eye.
I think it would be fairer to call this a summer volume product than thickness as it is showing average thickness over over a mix of ocean and ice. If we were to plot a new chart that took the US Navy thickness and SMOS volume, and used them to colour pixels by the percentage difference, then we might get a more accurate area chart than presently presented. The US navy has the best under ice sonar resources so like SMOS their charts are unlikely to be as badly compromised by the swell influence I've pointed out. Which BTW IMO is the main reason piomass has been overestimating thickness, particularly north of Svalbard. And over the outer ESAS.
So if SMOS says 20cm and US navy 1m, then we might have around 20% actual area.  If this was the average Arctic wide then Area would be really only 20% of extent. Thus my point about being darn close to a blue ocean event right now.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 13, 2018, 02:58:17 PM »
I tried to post this gift on the melting forum but Nevz just deleted it.  These are entering the Arctic Basin as over hundred kmph over 22 second over 600m wavelength Waves. They are not showing up on Nullschool or other wave charts because of higher,  short period waves that they show automatically instead. But these have come fro the southern ocean, are being accelerated and lengthened by strong cross equatorial winds blowing north out of the south Atlantic, and the strong  north Atlantic southerlies blowing into the Arctic from off the US coast. The massive highs pressure systems covering the Atlantic basins are culpable.
These waves are about a meter high entering the ice, and should be easily capable of penetrating right through to the Chukchi. The reflection off shelves and refraction around shallows like Svalbard causes complex crossing and reinforcing patterns. The Pyramid waves I have mentioned before. No question that waterlogged  and fragmented icefields, with sea showing through  gaps, holes and puddles connected to the Ocean raised relative to the troughs nearby would fool radar Altimetry into thinking there was more free board than there is, more thickness and meltponds on the ice.
Sure, blue ocean already is a bit far measuring by jaxa extent definition. But on actual area, If I'm right about this it could be getting close.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 12, 2018, 10:40:08 PM »
It near as dammit is a blue ocean event already Neven. I bet my left nut that anything near the periphery, extending now to a Chukchi to Barents strip right across the pole where meltponding is being reported is actually open water, and satellites being fooled by wave action.
And what I cannot stand is bullying. Which is what you supported.
If it wasn't for the south Asian low pressure zone acting as a giant cross equator Hadley cell with the southern hemisphere whole Indian ocean high, it would be all over already. But that looks to be changing as the Arctic low pressure is merging with it
 And a single high pressure covering north Atlantic, America, and Pacific combined with that is a dipole covering half the planet, and the Arctic sea ice the meat in the sandwich.
I am only posting here because its not fair that Nevens inability to distinguish between deliberate concern troll attacks and actual naivety deprive others of factual reports.



28
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 10, 2018, 01:24:17 PM »
Today's SMOS. It seems all the central basin ice is being expelled towards kill zones where either incoming ocean and Atmospheric heat is being soldly accelerated into, or Ocean heat and waves already exist enough to finish the deal.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 09, 2018, 08:55:12 PM »
Now THAT is a dipole.
Super cyclone encompassing the entire Arctic basin and Greenland. High pressure system covering the whole north Atlantic. Heat and moisture being sucked in of off all the continents and the Tropical Atlantic and low fetch high velocity low level winds from Newfoundland to past Svalbard creating huge long period waves aimed at the Atlantic front.
Now THAT is what I call an Arctic death spiral.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 09, 2018, 07:09:03 PM »
A strange attractor indeed. Mortality Salience artwork here? Any thing will do to distract from confronting the reality of near term death of the cryosphere?

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 09, 2018, 07:02:33 PM »
Today's latest.
That cyclone mixing is wreaking havoc. Obviously not meltponding confusing SMOS over where the sea level height is going on here. Waves, warm, wet, windy whupping under cloud and fog veil huh?

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 08, 2018, 10:52:47 PM »
You are deliberately polluting this forum bintho. Go away.

Anyone confused by bintroll. Pyramid waves are the result of waves crossing and reinforcing.
And the Labrador sea is halfway round the world from the laptev on Arctic Siberian coast.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Don't read this thread
« on: July 08, 2018, 10:36:03 PM »
You're ALL WRONG!
BURN ALL YOUR TOYS!
the planets getting colder, and we just don't know why.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GP9_DQM2rwc
( Little inferno. My 4 year old niece's favorite song)

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Land snow cover effect on sea ice
« on: July 08, 2018, 10:06:50 PM »
A few points that may have been missed. More snow cover adjacent to the basin means bigger outflows from the rivers on melt. While this in the past may have acted to refresh the pycnocline, as we enter a regime of more mobile ice, more turbulent weather, and more Pacific and Atlantic waters available for it to mix with over continental shelves, it may have the opposite effect by bridging the halocline differential with saltier waters beneath. Also it supplies more nutrients for algae growth under the thin ice. These algae grow up into the porous young ice, vastly enhancing bottom melt by trapping insolation in the ice base that would otherwise go deep in the clear water, directly melting the ice through their metabolic heat, and releasing antifreeze compounds that reduce the temperature st which the ice melts, and the energy required to do it.
With the washing machine action we are seeing induced by the volatile weather, these nutrients are being spread over a much vaster area.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 08, 2018, 06:55:36 PM »
Quote
A-Team: With Ascat, SMOS and JaxaRGB largely benched for the season, the remaining ice edge/concentration monitoring tool, UH AMSR2 3.125 km, has its own issues with bluish overlays from passing weather artifacts this time of year
.


Actually I've been finding that comparing the results of the new SMOS processing algorithm with the recent weather systems quite informative A-team.
Cross post from Nev's SMOS thread:

Quote
Hyperion
ASIF Citizen
 
Posts: 340
Admiral Franklin of the McGillicuddy Highland Navy
Liked: 52
Likes Given: 34

Re: SMOS
« Reply #19 on: Today at 10:52:18 AM »
QuoteModifyRemove
Today's SMOS is in,  and results are as expected.

On the seventh the Beaufort cyclone has already detached the blob of beige from mid CAA. And compacted the pack in the north Beaufort through dispersing floes in the direction of the pole.

The winds blowing out of Fram strait and around the top of Greenland have shifted the beige blob off the northeast tip of Greenland and compacted floes in the mouth of Nares.

Winds out of Bering straight are withering Pago's bridge in the Alaskan coastal Chukchi- Beaufort border.

In general, melt is progressing at pace around the whole periphery of the pack.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 08, 2018, 06:36:17 PM »
The most recent on nullschool, we can see that already the cold fresh blob out of the Labrador sea has been swept north to the Faroes Iceland shallow area. Not good news for latter, as it will be preventing underlying Gulfstream water from radiating and evaporating heat, while up taking energy from insolation and the atmosphere better. Also mixing into the saltier hot waters underneath will lighten them, making them more able to stay near surface as they reach the ice.
Nope. There is nothing on Nullschool showing a "fresh blob" out of Labrador sea going towards the "Faroes Iceland shallow area" (which is what exactly?).

The currents go in the opposite direction, flushing the Labrador sea southwards, and SSTA's around Iceland and the Faroes Islands show normal fluctuation.
Repeating your previous image is not proving anything. If you go back in Nullschool you can see that the SSTA in the area between Iceland and the Faroes fluctuates, nothing new happining now. If you set Nullschool to show currents, you can see that the currents from Labrador sea go southwards and there is simply no way that any cold or fresh water could be swept from Labrador sea to the east of Iceland.

It does feel like you are just spouting nonsense, stringing together a series of dubious claims and this particular claim is easily disproved.
Stop spouting nonsense. Are you a troll or just willfully ignorant?
Have you heard of storm surges?
Not only them at work here, but likely the huge surge of Gulfstream waters into the north sea entraining the southward Labrador sea meltflow. And the negative sea surface anomaly in the arctic created by its evacuation, and the cyclonic dispersion and negative atmospheric pressure anomally in the Arctic are behind this situation.
The persistent Greenland vortex low pressure systems are a big part of it also

On a lighter note. Here's an example of a pyramid wave field caused by waves from the latest Greenland vortex low refracting around  Iceland. Some reflection off Greenland is culpable too.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 08, 2018, 10:52:18 AM »
Today's SMOS is in,  and results are as expected.

On the seventh the Beaufort cyclone has already detached the blob of beige from mid CAA. And compacted the pack in the north Beaufort through dispersing floes in the direction of the pole.

The winds blowing out of Fram strait and around the top of Greenland have shifted the beige blob off the northeast tip of Greenland and compacted floes in the mouth of Nares.

Winds out of Bering straight are withering Pago's bridge in the Alaskan coastal Chukchi- Beaufort border.

In general, melt is progressing at pace around the whole periphery of the pack.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 08, 2018, 08:20:26 AM »
The most recent on nullschool, we can see that already the cold fresh blob out of the Labrador sea has been swept north to the Faroes Iceland shallow area. Not good news for latter, as it will be preventing underlying Gulfstream water from radiating and evaporating heat, while up taking energy from insolation and the atmosphere better. Also mixing into the saltier hot waters underneath will lighten them, making them more able to stay near surface as they reach the ice.
Nope. There is nothing on Nullschool showing a "fresh blob" out of Labrador sea going towards the "Faroes Iceland shallow area" (which is what exactly?).

The currents go in the opposite direction, flushing the Labrador sea southwards, and SSTA's around Iceland and the Faroes Islands show normal fluctuation.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 08, 2018, 08:15:22 AM »
Nullschool currently reporting waves of relatively long period, over three meters, heading north just South of the Svalbard hotspot. Yesterday measuring 16.2C peak. The shallows around Svalbard will act as a lens bending these divergent to the south of the islands waves, so they converge and cross in the kill zone to the north. Forming a field of pyramid waves. Examples below.
Also showing today shorter 1.5 m waves about where itp 108 is in the central Beaufort, headed toward the CAA, in a region of high salinity, -1.7 SST water.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 07, 2018, 11:42:43 PM »
My guess is they have reprocessed the historic data all of the early files were modified end of October 2017.
Steven, if you have 1% of an area of ocean covered by small floes averaging 2m thick, with sub 200m gaps between them, should you say this is 100% area, 100% extent, and 100% concentration of 2m thick ice?
This is what we are being asked to swallow on every chart and metric, but SMOS.
Its meltponds SMOS has problems with in summer. With thin, young, porous, fragmented, and highly salinity stratified ice,  meltponding is improbable now. But far more prevalent in 2012. Less so every year.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 07, 2018, 11:25:46 PM »
Quote from: oren link=topic=22 ::)78.msg162503#msg162503 date=1530996390
Quote
.       
 
Hyperion, I will be very surprised if this season ends at 5.0 Mkm2 or above. But your level of confodence is unjustified, and attacking others over it is not acceptable behavior IMHO.

Tru dat
Apologies.
That was not meant as a personal attack, but a general encouragement to everyone to look at the deeper picture rather than the extent over which the floes are sprawling. Claiming this season has a slow melt this season kind of yanked my chain in the small hours of the long winter night, and I did get a bit ranty.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 07, 2018, 11:14:10 PM »
While gfs seems to have backed off a little since yesterday in having the cyclone gear up to a basin wide coherent super cyclone by the 11th, it still is showing basin wide cyclonic circulation up until the twelfth presently. And of course could go either way that far out.
The main effect of this atmospherically seems to be over a week of: the record northeastern American heat being drawn in over the CAA. Westerlies from the Chukchi into the Beaufort. And prolonged strong southerlies sweeping up into the Arctic across the whole Atlantic entrance.
Looking at the SST, SSTA, and waves from two days ago. The most recent on nullschool, we can see that already the cold fresh blob out of the Labrador sea has been swept north to the Faroes Iceland shallow area. Not good news for latter, as it will be preventing underlying Gulfstream water from radiating and evaporating heat, while up taking energy from insolation and the atmosphere better. Also mixing into the saltier hot waters underneath will lighten them, making them more able to stay near surface as they reach the ice.
Waves were already reaching long periods near Svalbard on the sixth, the prolonged winds will bring an onslaught of waves and warm surface water head on into the ice of the Atlantic killzone.
In the Chukchi, similarly waves and high SST Pacific water, are already being pushed towards into Pago's ice bridge in the Beaufort direction two days ago. This should accelerate. And as any Nautical man knows, winds can move large volumes of water at the surface of the ocean very fast indeed.
In terms of temperatures and energy, the whole basin border from Bering straits, CAA, Greenland to western Russia looks up for over a week of well above zero temps and incoming energy.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 07, 2018, 06:34:16 PM »
Quote
.       
You have a good track record and, given the current slow melt, I am inclined to agree that we will end this melt season around 5.00 M km2. 
I am continually gobsmacked by comments like this. Volume is taking a hammering. Bottom melt and fragmentation is going at a record pace. The fast changing weather systems and winds are sprawling the pack and mixing in the unprecedented incoming ocean heat like never before. Are people so stuck in their habits that they only make a skin deep quick look at extent and area figures compromised by incapacity to distingush between fields of shrapnel and solid ice, and charts drawn by the artist algorithm. And don't look at the underlying processes going on.
These Amsr2 datasets cannot resolve even sub 200m wide continuous leads of long length. And even thickness products are giving misleading results due to measurement of the gap between sea level and the tops of chunks of floating rubble.
Incoming heat is attacking the ice basin wide. The energy flux into the ice and sea surface is  enormous. It REALLY stands a chance of slushing into almost nothing in one major prolonged storm.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 07, 2018, 09:59:48 AM »
30 cm is 1 ft.  So unless it's red or purple it's less than a foot thick.
Not really, as SMOS can't measure thickness in summer

This is one of those common wisdoms that is actually untrue.  SMOS has high uncertainty for thick ice during the summer, underestimating the thickness of thick ice.  Uncertainty for thin ice is much lower.

New methodology has been devised in the processing of SMOS data in recent years, that has reduced the uncertainties and is now providing a useable data set in the summer.


Very interesting Cid. I wonder if their archive has been reprocessed with the new algorithm. Or are comparisons with past years now made more difficult.
Anyhow. Freshly loaded to the Bremen servers. Here's the latest. As predicted a beige spot north of Siberia from the offshore winds causing compaction.
Don't expect it to last. The monster low in place in the Beaufort is going to disperse it back into the ESAS and Chukchi kill zones. The beige clump compacted against mid CAA is being fried and blown out to sea right now. And if the forecast for the next five days holds true, that low is going to grow into a monster covering the whole Arctic and spend the week winching in the whole north sea, with winds blowing all the way from Florida, and filling the whole gap from Greenland to Europe. Waves will be spectacular, as will the surface surge of hot water into the Atlantic killzone.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 07, 2018, 06:49:47 AM »
And now the Beaufort is taking a whupping.
Interestingly this beast has a well defined tropical style hot core at low level.
Right now, nullschool/gfs:

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 07, 2018, 03:54:49 AM »
<snip, off-topic and inciting more off-topic reactions; N.>

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 06, 2018, 06:40:51 PM »
And their melt animations

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 06, 2018, 06:34:56 PM »
2013 and 2015 were totally different worlds. This year the Beaufort gyre has disgorged its protective lid of fresher water through the CAA, sucked in a high SST Pacific flood, which is in the process of colonisation of the east Amerasian basin. The flood out the CAA is continuing. A back eddy into the Beaufort from the south CAA is causing the Beaufort to be constantly refilled with low concentration beaten up and partially melted and quickly melting ice. As well as the increase in Pacific inflow, the Atlantic inflow has accelerated, in volume and heat. As is necessary to replace a volume of water similar to the great lakes being  expelled into the Atlantic.
Low pressure over the basin, particularly the Beaufort will only accelerate this process. And these cyclones and the temperature differential enhanced by bottom melting In a high surface salinity regime is drawing in unprecedented levels of heat and moisture over the continents. Which enhances the temperature differential still more in a feedback loop.

Comparing with previous years extent figures and distribution will only delude you. 😢😰

And don't expect comparison with previous years weather patterns and indices to be helpful either.
US Navy melt animation:

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: SMOS
« on: July 06, 2018, 06:00:06 PM »
Unless the ice in the the area happens to be dry and meltpond free of course. Which can happen if the air temp is below zero, and/or bottom melting in high salinity is chilling it to below the surface freezing point. But what you are getting then is the average thickness per 40x40 km area of ocean. So if its 50% concentration, then the ice in the area would be twice as thick on average as is indicated.
 The projection is conic equidistant if anyone feels like writing a script to recolor and rekey on this basis. Cryosat thickness is not available in summer for similar reasons. If surface melt charts were used to flag areas as "surface melting, thickness unknown" then actually a quite informative and plausibly accurate product could result.
At present SMOS is best for day to day comparison for information on ice movement and melting progress.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 06, 2018, 10:15:35 AM »
Zooming in on that 30m year to date salinity animation. And trimming it to even less frames for better file size. Last frame freezes before repeat so you know when is now.
You can see the Beaufort Gyre contract off Mackenzie bay, pushing the dark blue low salinity stuff deep as its angular momentum speeds up the core, then it slides along the Alaskan coast until it collides with the Chukchi rise, and starts to unravel.
The unraveling appears to entrain Pacific water, that floods onto the ESAS to meet the east flowing Atlantic. In the last few months extra fingers of Pacific water extend parallel to the ESAS out into the basin.
It would not surprise me if this has progressed further than the model represents. We have so little actual data on subsurface current and salinity behavior.

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