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Messages - Hyperion

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« on: January 01, 2018, 01:29:17 AM »
In other news, it's beginning to look like a first bin 'victory', which (if manifested) means most of the voters were 'too' conservative.  Are we growing up?
Boy, more than grown up it starts feeling like I got a little used to the relentless demise, and less alarmed than what I should.
No. growing up would entail not being scared of being ridiculed or called unscientific, or alarmist for not being ultra conservative and understating everything.
 Even in an anonymous poll people are scared to express an opinion that might be too extreme. Growing up would not be allowing oneself to be bullied into silence and child like submission by vested interests in industry and the reputations of outdated science.
Growing up would be realizing that action avoiding a chance of a major disaster occurring at the risk that some might claim it never would have anyway, is much better than not speaking or acting and living with the consequences.
No greater evil than having the power to prevent harm but refusing to use it.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 01, 2018, 01:09:14 AM »
What is most startling to me is not so much the new record, but that December extent growth is so much lower that prior years. At around 1.5million, only a little over half what occurred in the shock warm December of 2016. If this the beginning of a new trend, maybe driven by a threshold being crossed in the surface mixing depth and areas (volume?) of the coastal basin seas...
 Surely its year-round blue way before anyone who gives a rats ' about "scientific reputation" is prepared to publicly admit.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: December 28, 2017, 09:03:36 PM »
Oh I read that term in the Article!

Do we just call it AMOC?

It's a slightly la neenya summer this year but it's still pretty uncomfortable. Keeping me awake at night with this damned humidity!

Do you perhaps mean a SUPER La Nina. Look how much heat has been pushed from the tropical oceans to the western subtropical oceanic regions. and the abnormally cold surges conquering the tropical oceans from the east.

I think that AMOC may be one of those mythological terms from the mists of time past. Now we have warm salty water coming from the tropics, freshening as it melts the poles from below, and exiting on the surface in nth Pacific, Atlantic and big ring around Antarctica thats surging up the west coasts of Australia, sth America, Africa. AMUC if you like. Atlantic/Antarctic-Murderidional-Underturning-Current.
Just hope it doesn't go full Canfield with tropical evaporation subducting the water to the bottom near the equator at 40C+, getting heated by geothermal heat on the ocean floor, and then rising at subtropical lattitudes at over 50C and hard Anoxic states.
You are welcome to give us New Zealanders back our humidity if you don't like it. Has not rained more than a couple of dribbles here for over two months, and we are sick of your ozzie drought conditions and want to give THEM back!


https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/anim=off/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/equirectangular=-144.36,-0.69,174

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 27, 2017, 11:15:05 PM »
JAXA DATA AS AT 26 DEC

Windows 10 decided to update - screenshot and paint are much worse. Thankyou Mr Gates.

So at this time last year extent was growing at over 150,000 per day but this year down near 25,000. Interesting temperature and humidity readings in the stratosphere.

5
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 25, 2017, 01:29:42 AM »
This super la nina hot pool we have covering the entire Tasman Sea between Australia/Tasmania and New Zealand appears to be wreaking a kind of Californication in our climate here in NZ. 
Its been apparent and growing for near two months. And there was a violent swing from persistent rainy conditions to unprecedented drought. Two months with no rain bar two afternoon brief thunderstorm events. This has grass dead everywhere and vegetable crops bolting to seed if watered or dead if not at the beginning of summer. About two months in advance of previous record drought years with desiccated soil moisture levels.
This seems to be the effect of the desert subtropical high belt extending south and bridging across from Australia.
The predictions are for death of coral reefs from Indonesia to Australia, and much of the south pacific Islands this summer. And of course the potential for devastating tropical cyclones around the south west Pacific will be very high.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 24, 2017, 04:48:06 AM »
The recently persistent windflow in through Bering seems to have been effective in keeping the shallow continental shelf area well mixed.
Today for example Nullschool is showing waves over 2.3m pounding the Chuchki ice from the south. Whilst despite warm influx waters from the north Pacific, helped in no small part by recent persistent southward winds on the Atlantic side no doubt, we have negative SSTAs in the Chuchki suggesting higher than normal salinity.

The whole Pacific sea temperatures situation is unprecedentedly whacko in fact, with SSTAs off northern Japan and in the south Tasman Reaching +5 degrees C and a belt of water halfway across the Pacific at the Equator from sth America of cooler SST than 40deg nth or sth latitude in the western Pacific. 

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (Mid December update)
« on: December 20, 2017, 10:35:08 PM »
Interestingly, the main volume in the CAB is drifting "westwards", which gives hope that the thick ice could be more protected from export this year.

But next year killed in the Beaufort and Chukchi?

8
Antarctica / Re: EAIS Contributions to SLR by 2100
« on: December 19, 2017, 04:23:27 AM »
Hmmm.
I have to wonder how many of these tunnels are still uncharted and at what rate inflow might be increasing. That 220,000 cubic meters per second for just one channel discovered, as serious as it sounds may be just be a drop in the bucket compared to totals when you look at that "neighbors" png for example ASLR.
And If this is a self reinforcing feedback where once these currents have bored past the sill ridges into the inland deepening basin, increased exposed ice surface area can increase the velocity both of the incoming denser warm water, and the freshened by melt outgoing surface layer then trouble it surely is. Particularly if as mentioned surface melt becomes common on the top of the ice. If, as we have seen in Greenland the soggy aquifer that persists below the frozen crust of winter then a massive change in the thermal gradient down through the ice sheet is the result. With average surface temperatures annually well below freezing then a stable situation exists with geothermal heat holding the base at melting point and colder temperature as you rise towards the surface. With temps pinned at melting point at the top and bottom, inevitably the whole thickness of the sheet will ease toward melting point, and structural stability of the bottom becomes highly questionable.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 17, 2017, 01:02:34 AM »
geronocrat
So reports [for AR6?] finalised in 2021 / 2022.

The timeline for the modelling and associated science is somewhat different. See image below. Will new data from 2018, 2019, 2020 data even get considered?

Does that mean a 2 to 5 year lag between data and reports?

What happened in AR5?

Actually I'm afraid it means a 7-10 year lag between data and IPCC reports. They are constrained to base their reports only on data presented in peer reviewed papers. The time required for funding proposals, the study, the write up, the peer review rarely comes in under 7-10 years.
And to pass peer review the politics require you to only quote data and other studies that have been peer reviewed also. Or the old crusties will knife it because its conflicting with the out of date science they contributed to. Such is how politics holds back science in the world we have to bear.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: December 10, 2017, 08:47:33 PM »
Well disregard that... since then, the salinity sensor on ITP108 has gone completely crazy. So the values from last week are probably unreliable too.

Oh grasshopper. You so quick to blame the weapon holding you are. ::)

Since its also showing solidly on the dissolved oxygen chart, then its quite possible that spotted one of Veli's giant beavers you have.

See at peak summer flood rivers like the Lena in Siberia and the McKenzie in Alaska carry so much sediment, that though their waters are fresh they are quite dense. So these waters travel at depth for months far out into the polar basin before the dirt sinks and the fresh water rises to the surface.

The deep Arctic waters have been described as like a pile of thousands of slugs slowly crawling around the basin, some dropping from the surface due to high salinity or sediment/dead plankton loadings, some crawling out of the bowl into the nth Atlantic. Some slugs are hypersaline due to now defunct brinacle downwellings from the bottoms of thick and very chill iceshelves. Some of these if say 40psu must be heated by geothermal forces to 50-60C to rise into range of these Buoys. Which may be what happened back at day 315-320 when at 650m an anomaly of over 40 PSU, over 15C, low DO cropped up with vertical disturbances in the water column apparent also.

Waters of differing Salinity and temperature do not mix very easily. 8)

edit: Oops. Attached the Wrong Temp-Salinity plot. Since Nevens still Moderating my posts I can't see my attachments until a few days have passed and he gets around to approving them. Or I would have spotted it. Fixed now.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 03, 2017, 08:53:51 PM »
What happens if at some point we end up with MYI in Okhotsk + HB and only FYI in the CAB?

How would you get MYI in Hudson Bay? Temperatures are higher than historical, and historically there was none.

You would need a cooler repeat of summer 2017, where snow is retained along much of the shoreline til the end of June or July. If we see the current snowfall feedback make much more progress, this will not be unfeasible (explaining why 2017 was so anomalously snowy).

Even though extent has gone into lag mode, volume continues to perform phenomenally and historically well:


Well it may not technically be "historically" but its starting to look like the arctic ocean may well have de-iced and Greenland succumbed to a runaway collapse scenario of marine ice sheet cliff instability in the last 13ka. Its now being admitted that this happened in west Antarctica about 10000 BC, with the cliff fragment keel gouges they've found on the sea floor. This would explain all those ancient maps of Antarctica, and fresh mammoth remains in the new Siberian islands etc.

So if Greenland goes into a runaway structural failure of ice cliffs getting higher and higher as they  crumble (100m above the waterline is the limit for ice structurally apparently). Compounded by warm salty water rotting out the legs of the ice sheet, so allowing periodic large block slump events to flush out the bergs. Then the nth Atlantic could flood with giant bergs, turning over the gulfstream south of Newfoundland, and a full Warm Arctic, Cold Continent event could occur until (and if) the stored thermal energy in the arctic oceans upper km or so can dissipate.

I guess that multiyear ice in Hudson and Okhotsk while the Arctic is blue year round would not look so strange in such a "Final Dryas" event

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2017 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 16, 2017, 08:29:04 PM »
But converging on 2012 at a rate that could see us in second in a week.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 15, 2017, 01:21:49 AM »
Hey A-team.

There are no active temperature gauges today in the Arctic Ocean itself,

does IMB 2017B count?

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 15, 2017, 01:19:11 AM »
A few specific and latent heat of fusion calculations to get a handle on the magnitude of effects we can expect from an expanding surface mixed salinity layer:

At 0 deg C one gram of seawater has to absorb 4.000 Joules of heat for the temperature to increase 1 degree celsius (°C).

Density is 1028 grams per litre so 4.112 kiloJoules is required to raise 1 litre 1 degree C.

Latent heat of fusion water is 334 kJ/kg

334kJ/4.112J = 81.23 dM = 8m of depth dropped 1degC for equivalent energy release to freeze 10cm of water.

If the temp drop required is 3.2 degC to -1.8 degC = 5 degC
then 80m/5 = 16m cooled is equal to 1m of ice frozen.

If its a 2 degC drop to -1.8 freezing point
then 80/2= 40m cooled is equivalent to a metre of ice freezing.

So even at an 0.2 degC average temp a 100m salinity mixed layer would require the equivalent energy removed to cool to the point ice can exist as is released by 2.5m of water becoming frozen into about 2.75m ice.

Unless I'm mistaken, the salt-water its floating in has to be at freezing point for its salinity,
for freshwater ice or snow not to be dissolved by it? ie/ bottom melt.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 14, 2017, 03:58:14 AM »
Here's the data from the only warm buoy still functioning. At:
LAST UPDATE
Date: 11/13/2017
Position: 76.04N 147.81W
Battery Voltage: 11.40V
She appears to have done a small pirouette around the remnant of the Beaufort gyre since august and is currently about where the ice edge retreated to in September. This is probably the best place and time of year for the persistence of a low salinity lid in the whole Arctic. But between the surface and 50m where the shelf of pacific heat is is a scant 1 to 2 psu differential. With both extremes of depth experiencing excursions to around the 29psu point. The exclusion of salt from a metre of ice is sufficient to raise 30m of surface layer by a psu in salinity. This is I fear a tipping point upon us where the thermal inertia of the deep basin mixed layer precludes bottom thickening and little more than floating snow can be expected as a winter sea ice state. The Chukchi and Svalbard surge and retreat behaviour certainly looks to me like the halo has lost the strength to submerge pacific and Atlantic warm surges below the hurt zone.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 12, 2017, 04:39:14 AM »
See. Here we go again. Six hours ago the contours were smooth.
Now it's back to mixed to 500m again.

And reading eg. itp100:
Last profile (number 109) on 2017/11/12 2 UTC
Last profile temperature: minimum = -1.5105, maximum = 0.85202 °C
Last profile salinity: minimum = 29.8848, maximum = 34.8585

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 11, 2017, 07:29:20 PM »
Amusing language hack by this smart assumption phone there. Basin wide sea level pressure drops. Not basin wide seals do pressure drops. Though I guess the effects could be similar.
It just added umption to my previous sentence I notice also. I am saddened by the censorship of the potentially slightly disturbing by big brother.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 11, 2017, 07:15:11 PM »
Your stripes... What happened? It seems the contour plots have had a little update!

They now show a more plausible story of active deep water formation.
Not sure which you alluding to. 95 still stripy. Not implausibility that pulses of salty water are sliding in under the icepack when basin wide seals do pressure drops. Get cooled to freezing point near surface and sink, and under rising pressure central basin surface waters washing out. Unless we go "Naah, must all just be mechanical!". The co-located imb-crrel-dartmouth.org is potentially able to shed some light if you can strip search it's thermistor string data. Water temp with ice in proximity is a proxy for salinity.

100,101,108. Are continuing to suffer from the case of the here today and gone tomorrow leading edge stripe syndrome.
LOLz, Perhaps Trump has invoked the patriot act and declared clear publication of real world Arctic data to be an act of terrorism by threats to future US oil revenues or military plans. If anyone wants to talk to Woods for any explanation they can give it be great.

19
But I have a second question: To what extent does the Greenland’s ice melting, has been cooling the Arctic Ocean, especially on September? From my point of view, 2017 was the second worse year, after 2012, but the negative feedback of Greenland's ice melting contributed to make it the seventh worse on record.

James Hansen and colleagues paper rather strongly made the case that Greenland's melting was in fact destined to only become a negative feedback after its rate had doubled every 5-10years for a couple of centuries.
Short term it's modelled to be a strong positive feedback of up to ten times the magnitude of total worldwide anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The puddle of meltwater flowing south from it protects the underlying north flowing warm waters from energy loss and evaporation. The magnet use of the increase in heat reaching the Arctic and reduction in thermal radiation into space from this effect is thought to be so large that an exponential accerating warming and melt will proceed until the latent energy of annual melt exceeds ghg and surface cold pool blocked outgoing radiation losses in the energy sector budget a century ago or two from now. At this point the melting icecube can start to cool back down our drink.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 09, 2017, 02:23:56 PM »
Durn!
Ok. Thats a pretty good case for some serious issues with the cable crawler data aquisition unit. I would of thought there would be some pressure sensor cross referencing automated to validate where it thinks its at on the cable, or at least some manual checks. Disapointing that a buoy launched just six months ago is looking so dodgy after a development of almost 100 mostly reliable predecessors.
I had been working on the hypothesis that this recent behaviour was probably due to eddy and vortex mixing from the 14c temp incoming water that is surfacing still west of svalberd doing a right turn and interacting with bottom topography and wave and current effects. Now it seems we have no direct data thats reliable on the Atlantic front at all. Probably growing kelp on its upper cable or some such.
The new ITPS in the north beaufort have also been giving us inconstant contour plots. The past two weekends have given the t&S flat readings surface to depth on all three I pointed out before. Until someone seems to get to work on monday and "Fix" the issue. Happened again today infact. The composit plots look more consistant and are perhaps worth a sqiz for comparison with early plots from 10years ago. ITPS 3,5,6:




Admittedly these are a much longer series, covering up to 3yrs from 2005in the same area as 100,101,108 are now charting, so there is somr data mixed in with open water and shallows. But they see to contrast with ten years later by having a less contiguous pacific warm layer just over 30psu at 50 to 60m depth and temps -1.5 to 0.5. And surface salinities as low as 22psu with generally 5-6psu differential between these depths.
Now we appear to be seeing a more consistant temperature peak at about 40m and only 1-2psu differential with surface.
The big thermal store is in the atlantic layer starting about 200m. But with the anticlockwise low pressure dominated circulation patterns we are increasingly seeing. This is like a spin cycle with fresh riverine influxes not replenishing the halo but expelled by coriolis out bering and CAA, greenland coasts. Big negative sstas in the nth pac and greenland  area presently look like this to me. New north beau buoys As  attached:

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 08, 2017, 08:08:59 PM »
Itp 95 hovering around 84nth polewards of svalberd has been showing some regular overturning to below 700m with above the scale temps and salinity rising from deep to replace surface to depth downwelling as the surface cools.
Looking at the "Plot of ITP T & S Contours" vs the contents of "itp95last.dat" for the 3rd and 4th of November...

I really have to suspect that there is no such "overturning to below 700m", and that it only looks like that on the contour plot because of how they fill in missing data.

The 3rd of November had a massive cuision of very cold very fresh water from 26m to 100m, the 4th of November had no data readings shallower than 529m depth... but the contour plot for day 309 (Nov 4th) shows the top 100m as being suddenly warm and salty. There was no actual evidence to suggest a dramatic change.
I'm doubtful that much of this can be attributed to misgraphing of missing data. Many of these stripes are five to ten days wide. And show on disolved oxygen and up-down composit plots for temp salinity and do also. With two sampling descents per day that would be 10-20 missing logging runs in a row and half the last few months being publicly misrepresented.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2017, 05:32:34 AM »
It is on the Atlantic side that I think most desperately needs instrumentation, to track exactly the kind of overturning and changes in the water column you are mentioning.  While the Bering and increased captured insolation are important to what we see playing out, I think input from warm more saline Atlantic water is really what will tip the balance in the Arctic's heat budget.

Actually I may have spoke too soon. Itps 100@80-146, 101@81-127, 108@80-137 are now all showing a flat temp and salinity profile surface to 500m ish. The fact that only 25m of a few psu less salinity is lidding this area has been concerning me. The brine rejected by  a mtr of ice freeze could be enough to flatten the halocline. And then any surface cooling will overturn to depth. May improve outgoing winter heat flux. But seems likely this would jump us to year round ice free in a couple of years. Itp 95: 83.9024° N, 24.4681° E also below at day 305 looking halodeclined

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: October 30, 2017, 08:12:36 AM »
trying to model heat flow

That sounds very interesting.

With all this talk of early ice growth trapping summer heat in the water underneath the ice, I've been wondering what data there is on that... and at what depth the water temperature is most relevant for a seasonal ice outlook.

I know ARGO floats have some capability to operate under sea ice and save up the data until it's safe to transmit... but I've never seen any actual data beyond 65N.
Itp 95 hovering around 84nth polewards of svalberd has been showing some regular overturning to below 700m with above the scale temps and salinity rising from deep to replace surface to depth downwelling as the surface cools. This location being well inside the pack, this cannot be good for atlantic side ice formation/survival. Particularly over deep ocean as tis. As of day 304:

They have some new buoys itps 100,101,108 out on the central beaufort. They appear to be showing the halocline stabilising there, after a shaky period before it crusted over, not much salinity differential compared to a decade back.

24
...
I am thinking also that ice dyking much of the through-flow channels of the CAA would be a big bonus in disabling the Garlic-press  and throttling down Halodecline by fresh surface water export here.

Rite, I will play 'your silly game'!  Attached image shows 'dykes' plugging all viable channels of the garlic press - each located at the narrowest point between bits of terra firma.  The total length of dyke required is 300 kilometres, with the longest span being about 100 km. 

Such a project would not be a 'bonus', it would be an engineering impossibility within the presently available resources and skills and likely a practical failure too, IMHO.  The environmental implications are poorly understood, and the potential unintended consequences (including the impact of the soot from the fossil fuel emissions of plant building the dykes on ice life) are likely to be too numerous to enumerate, with either forward- or hind-sight. 

Next!

Adam. I am ashamed to be a fellow New Zealander when I see this response. You obviously did not read my analysis above showing that 50 of these 5m wingspan, 5 ton payload, hover-skimmer drones, which my estimates show could be built for as little as $ 10000 each (I AM a world champion high performance Design Engineer by the way), could build over 3000km of 50m deep Ice Dykes in 100 days. Not to mention each blanket 1000s of sqkm of land in snow, and dump several tons of water per minute from a lake or river 5km away on a permafrost, or Boreal forest fire if you are worried about soot.
 And by hydrothermal Pyrolysis of Kelp the biofuel can be made up to 10x carbon negative, and very clean burning. This is work done in collaboration with the likes of Prof Emeratis of the Edinburgh engineering and design school Steven Salter, Prof Wadhams, and AMEG Chair John Nissan in 2013. And a number of NZ world champion engineers and fluid and Thermo- dynamicists contributing also.
 
I first Modeled and discarded the idea of wind-turbine pumps, as Nasa has this year released their oh so exciting plan to save us all using, back then. I'm sure they got copies of my designs from the NSA. Their analysis mirrors what we decided. That millions would be needed, you can't distribute more than about 30L per second from a stationary unit before overwhelming the local atmospheric capacity to dissipate the latent heat, and all you really get in the end by this route is a salty junk floe that has little structure and little chance of achieving a low enough core temp for bottom growth and HyperSaline brine subduction. And the fossil fuel use and costs for deployment and maintenance would be unacceptable.

And by the way I would not suggest completely sealing all the CAA channels. Grounding fast Ice Shelves to replace the ones that were there, restrict flows, and thereby try and stop all the halocline failure that seems obvious to be mostly happening by that route is of prime importance to the entire Arctic Ecosystems. And Kelp-farming on rope grids would be a big help too. As for it being unfeasible, and they would just melt or get pushed away? Got that covered.
Here's a concept pic. Stationary versions of this heat pipe system would be very cost effective, capable of either generating lots of green electricity with part of the energy being evicted, or set up absolutely fail-proof with no moving parts. Versions like pictured could be used to actually stir the Beaufort Gyre back into good health so it preserves its low salinity lid, As well as building deep keeled burgs in the 20+m range with super cooled cores for hyper-saline down-welling brinacle production like we had all around that area a couple of decades ago from now lost thick ice-shelves. The system that feeds oxygen to the deep benthic zone which is 80% of the oceans volume, and contains the vast majority of its species. Most as yet not even discovered.
Killing that because choosing not to try, avoids the chance of failure is not ethical. And as Confucius say....

25
One more thing about transferring heat from subsurface northward gulfstream flows to the cap of southbound cold stuff above it south of Greenland. This vastly improves outbound longwave that is lost by this significant portion of the earths surface area being reduced in its capacity to radiate. Hansen 2015 calculated this effect as x10 of current greenhouse gas overburden to be expected shortly. And of course the thermal gradient with nearby far hotter Nth Atlantic waters creates serious storm breeding potential. So much advantage to enhancing the planets heat export capacity here.
And of course the Ice and snow building system also has big bonuses in the planetary energy export budget.
I am thinking also that ice dyking much of the through-flow channels of the CAA would be a big bonus in disabling the Garlic-press  and throttling down Halodecline by fresh surface water export here.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 16, 2017, 01:55:03 PM »
<send Jim a PM, as this is still off-topic; N.>

27
Policy and solutions / Oceanic Current breakdown remediation
« on: August 16, 2017, 01:25:15 PM »
Or Stopping the AMOC going AMUC.

thereby flushing out the freezable low salinity surface layer. And ceasing Atlantic bottom water production. Which it probably already has, thereby whipping us down the road to deep and mix bathometric Anoxia and a Canfield ocean state Super greenhouse Anoxic ocean event.

We have lost the historic thick Ice shelves and bergs that had the capacity to maitain well below freezing core temperatures throughout the summer, and over winter generated large hypersaline downwelling brinicles as they scavenged ice from the salty incoming Atlantic waters and created slugs of cold saline  bottomwater to ooze over the GB-FAROES-ICELAND-GREENLAND shallow portal to the basin and replenish the atlantic deep benthic waters with fresh oxygen and motion.

I'm Proposing that a no lose intervention at this point is:
- Rather than let the gulf-stream Increasingly colonize the entire Arctic basin with a counterclockwise upward helical spiral that appears to maybe have already exhausted all the cold hyper-saline bottom water it can squeeze over the exit ridge.

-To the Point that with pernicious low pressure over the Arctic we have an AMUC - Atlantic Meridional Under-turning Current, filling the basin with warm salty stuff from below and evicting our low salinity surface lens by wind, Coriolis and mechanical filtering thru primarily the CAA.

A good Idea May be to utilize large scale fluid-gas phase transfer heat pipe systems to extract the heat from the over 15C in places incoming water where it is sliding under the outgoing cold fresh stuff. The working fluid is heated in the lower heat exchanger/evaporator, travels up to the surface as a gas, generates vast amounts of energy  passing through a turbine before being cooled at the surface by a similar heat-exchanger/condenser, before returning as a fluid down to another turbine at the bottom and through the evaporator again.

Even better if some momentum exchange could be added in. Returning the fresh to the Arctic, and the salt to the Atlantic. Which may well happen if the Gulfstream can be cooled and sink south down the bottom incline off Newfoundland or south of Iceland. It wouldn't need to displace the cold fresh stuff south if it did not get in to the Arctic. There seems to be two areas of about 100km width where this could be VERY effective. With over 1m/s flow rates and the biggest temperature and salinity differentials. Bering Strait could be a candidate too.

-Needless to say there is a very large amount of money to be made from the energy this low level engineering challenge could produce.

-And the Storm feeding potential of the North sea and arctic would be greatly reduced. Not to mention sea-level rise, clathrate guns.....

Sorry about the scruffy paint drawn concept mock-up. No CAD at present.

A bit of a rundown on the north sea current dynamics I found in my archive:

The North Atlantic Current

Elizabeth Rowe, Arthur J. Mariano, Edward H. Ryan

The North Atlantic Current (NAC) as represented by the Mariano Global Surface Velocity Analysis (MGSVA). The NAC transports warm Gulf Stream water poleward. It feeds the Irminger current and the broad northward N. Atlantic drift.
The North Atlantic Current originates between the Grand Banks and Mid Atlantic Ridge near the Newfoundland Ridge at the branch point of the Gulf Stream. Mann (1967, 1972) using a reference level of 2,000 dbar found that the NAC (his "Atlantic Current") was made up of 20 Sv of water from the Gulf Stream and 15 Sv from the Slope Water Current bringing the total transport up to 35 Sv. Other transport estimates for the NAC include 35 Sv (ref leval 1900 m) (Krause et al., 1987); In his figure 15 the Gulf Stream is located at 40°N 50°W and the Slope Water current at 41°N 50°W. Fuglister (1963) considered this to be a typical situation and found a westerly countercurrent separating the two. Rossby (1996) estimates a transport of 40 Sv in his review of the North Atlantic Current. Mann (1967) notes that the currents are permanent but subject to meandering as demonstrated by International Ice Patrol observations.

The North Atlantic Current represents the bulk of the Gulf Stream continuation past its branch point. Mann (1967) shows the The North Atlantic Current as comprised of waters from the Slope Water Current and from the Gulf Stream. In his representation approximately 15 Sv are derived from the Slope Water Current with the remaining 20 Sv contributed by the Gulf Stream. The remaining 30 Sv head off to the north east. The NAC is strengthened by mixing interactions of the Gulf Stream and Labrador Current as well. Worthington had shown the NAC as part of a separate Northern gyre, however subsequent work later revealed that this hypothesis was incorrect and that the North Atlantic Current was indeed derived from the Gulf Stream. The North Atlantic Current is generally thought of as the end of the Gulf Stream, however it goes on to feed some of the major subarctic currents completing the poleward transport of tropical waters.

Based on five years of NOAA satellite imagery (1980-1985) Krauss et al. (1987) identified two basic flow patterns for the NAC. The first is the "classical situation" where the NAC flows north past Flemish Cap, into the Northwest Corner (52°N), forms a loop, and turns east. In this case there are only minor extrusions of water on the current's offshore side. The other pattern is the "branching situation". In this case only part of the NAC continues to the northwest corner while large amounts of water are expelled from the eastern side of the current (between pressure cells). Evidence for these different regimes can also be found in hydrographic studies. Worthington (1976) identified and named the Northwest Corner even though he did not show the NAC as a continuation of the Gulf Stream. Krausse et al. (1987) show the NAC branching at 47°N, 41°W with waters from the eastern flank heading northeast and from the western flank heading northwest towards the Northwest Corner.

Clark et al (1980) published one of the most influential reports on this region. They established the branch point proposed by Mann (1967) and refuted Worthington's (1976) two-gyre hypothesis. Clark et al. (1980) found a transport of 53 Sv (2000 dbar reference) for a merged slope water current and Gulf Stream with maximum speeds of ~100 cm s-1. They only found peak velocities of 50 cm s-1 in the North Atlantic Current but noted that they had sectioned the current obliquely. A more typical maximum velocity for the North Atlantic Current is the 100 cm s-1 reported by Krausse et al. (1987). Clarke et al. (1980) found that 26 Sv of the combined Gulf Stream Slope current flow contributed to the North Atlantic Current with the remaining 27 Sv turning east. Although Mann (1967) too had noted the presence of a large clockwise eddy, he had not accounted for its contribution to the northward flow. Clark et al estimated a contribution of approximately 18 Sv (2000 db reference) from this "Newfoundland Basin eddy". The Labrador Current recirculation was shown "blending" into the North Atlantic Current although there was no estimate of transport contribution. Krauss et al. (1990) found that extensive mixing between Labrador Current and North Atlantic Current water produces caballing which too in turn strengthens the North Atlantic Current.

Worthington's two gyre hypothesis is the most influential rejection of the North Atlantic Current as an extension of the Gulf Stream (Wothington, 1962, 1976). Based on the higher oxygen content of waters off Flemish Cap Worthington concocted a new circulation scheme involving a separate northern geostrophic anticyclonic gyre in which the North Atlantic Current functioned as a western boundary current. He also felt that salinity differences between the regions were too great to be accounted for by mixing and used that as further evidence for this gyre. Lastly he cited the presence of a low pressure trough separating the gyres although his flow lines did not correspond well to dynamic height charts. Since so many other aspects of Worthington's circulation scheme were correct his theory was probably given credence for far longer than warranted. The two gyre hypothesis was finally laid to rest by Clark et al (1980) who were able to account for most of the water property differences which initially led Worthington to propose his two gyre theory. They also cited Worthington's departure from geostrophy as major flaw in the theory. Clarke et. al. (1980) confirmed Mann's findings which are that the Gulf Stream splits south of the Grand Banks and that the North Atlantic Current is a continuation of the Gulf Stream.

The other branch of the Gulf Stream was seen as a broad indefinite flow with part returning southwards contributing to the Gulf Stream recirculation (Clarke et al, 1980) and part turning eastward to eventually coalesce and strengthen forming the Azores Current (Klein and Seidler, 1989). During winter months Klein and Seidler (1989) showed a single current flowing from the source region near the Southeast Newfoundland Rise. However, the situation differed in the summer where they found the current from the source region branching into two current bands near 41°N 47°W. The northern branch was found to head almost straight for the Azores Current but the southern branch formed a cyclonic loop with only 70% of its flow crossing the Mid Atlantic Ridge. This may be evidence of seasonality in the source region or may result from the general variability inherent in the source region.

References :

Clarke et al., 1980: Current system south and east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 10, 25-65.
Fuglister, F.G., 1963: Gulf Stream at 60, Progress in Oceanography, 1, 265-373.
Klein, B. et al. and G. Seidler, 1989: On the origen of the Azores current, Journal of Geophysical Research, 94, 4905-4012.
Krauss, W., E. Fahrbach, A. Aitsam, J. Elken, and P. Koske, 1987: The North Atlantic Current and its associated eddy field southeast of Flemish Cap. Deep-Sea Research, 34, 1163-1185.
Krauss, W., R. Doscher, A. Lehmann, and T. Viehoff, 1990: On eddy scales in the eastern and northern North Atlantic Ocean as a function of latitude. Journal of Geophysical Research, 95, 18049-18056.
Mann C.R., 1967: The termination of the Gulf Stream and the beginning of the North Atlantic Current, Deep-Sea Research, 14, 337-359.
Mann, C.R., 1972: A review of the branching of the Gulf Stream System, Proc. R. Soc. Edinb., B72, 341-349.
Rossby, T., 1996: The North Atlantic Current and surrounding waters: At the crossroads. Reviews of Geophysics, 34, 463-481.
Worthington, L.V., 1962: Evidence for a two gyre circulation system in the North Atlantic, Deep-Sea Research, 9, 51-67.
Worthington, L.V., 1976: On the North Atlantic circulation, Oceanographic Studies, The John Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, 6, 1-110.


28
A few proposals for remediation and recovery I have been working on over the last few years. Lets discuss. To my mind some hope, however tenuous is better for the soul than scrabbling for reasons to rejoice in, avoid thinking about, or even resign oneself to Calamity.

Lets start with one I was working on a couple of years ago to tame beasts like the ESAS amongst a whole emergent ZOO this approach now seems screaming for.

Kelp Farming and Ice dyking for habitat enhancement and negative Carbon fuels and chemical production.
[/size]

A purpose built craft like this Ground effect plane / hovercraft triphibian concept could be ideal.  The laterally rigid sideskirts with vertically flexable surface contouring  ski bottoms would allow transitions between air, water ,ice, snow, earth surfaces of all types and the waterscoop tail could directly hose the water onto the ice with foil effect to counter lateral reaction thrust.

 Snow making, firefighting, and ecology seeding also in its functionality.

At pumping of 10tons per second, 50m x 100m/s = 5000sqm,  10000kg/5000sqm = 2 kg per sqm per pass. About 2mm per pass.

If we assume conditions that will allow 2 mm to freeze in 30 seconds then 4mm per minute = 240mm per hour = 5760mm (near 6m thick) per day could be made of 50m wide by 100m/s x 30s = 3km long  of icedyke by a mobile spray vehicle at 100m/s.

3000m x 6m x 50m = 900 000 tons per day of ice making.

A fleet of 50 working for 100 days therefore could make 5000 x 900 000 = 45 000 000 000 tons or near 5 cubic kilometers of ice.

if we are looking at an average needed to ground them of say 30m thick then 50m wide is cross section area of 1500 sqm.

5 000 000 000 cubic m / 1500 sqm =  3.33333 million meters or 3333 km.
Ball park figure of 1000kw vehicle power My estimates deem adequate to do this.

Very likely a rope mesh reinforcement would need to be floated on the water and anchored in place to hold together the dyke been formed. Doing this work in polynyas seems the best way, then towing into position of sections to be anchored and further thickened.
If 100 such vehicles were used you've got near seven thousand km of icedyke which could be enough for such a layout as this below.

For methane plume hotspots to the surface hexagonal tiles would need to be formed and towed into place if they are too rich for ice to form inside the rings in situ.

Stationary pumping systems might have too high costs per area in most places with limits of small volumes per pump plausible due to area feasible to distribute the water to, and ice layup rates. Though in saying this high cost is often seen  as a benefit for commercial interests. They can make more money doing it the hard way.

The purposes of kelp farming in the less methane emissive areas is as follows:
  • Biomass for biofuels and biochemicals of around 500 ton per hectare per year can be harvested.
    The growing kelp oxygenates the water to support consumers of methane and riverine fluxes of organic carbon.
    The artificial kelp forests provide habitat and food for a diverse and rich ecology of which fisheries and abalone/ mussel/ crabs / lobster etc farming potential.
    Unlike micro algaes the kelp biomass is easily harvested and so does not rot and anoxify the water at the end of summer.
    sedimentation rates and water clarity are vastly improved by the kelp forests, thereby improving albedo and enhancing natural carbon burial in sediments.
    Simple and low cost infrastructure only is neccessary to process the kelp locally into liquids fror low transport costs to refinaries for further upgrading.
    It would be easy to use the CO from an initial  biomass pyrolysis to convert methane collected nearby to methanol for easy low cost transportation.
    Combining these systems would allow zero carbon emmission liquid fuels via the energy component of the fossil methane and biomass being used as hydrogen and the carbon turned into biochar and hi performance bioglues and recyclable polymers, allowing further longterm  C sequestration by wood, biofibre etc component for  construction materials, also replacing high C emmission steel, concrete etc.
Aaron Franklin.




29
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 16, 2017, 11:53:46 AM »
<snip. Way off-topic, and too long. I have the entire text of your comment if you'd like me to message it to you so you can edit it and place it in a more appropriate thread. JP>

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 11, 2017, 10:20:55 PM »

Attached is a Jaxa animation which uses the Bootstrap algorithm, which theoretically is much less sensitive to clouds/water vapor than the ASI method used by Uni Hamburg and Uni Bremen.

Event there some artifacts can be seen which should be caused be surface effects (e.g. rain/hail/sleet/snow).

The animation runs to the 9th August.

Looks like an Arctic Iceman sitting down on Greenland, laying his head back on SevZem, and waving us bye-bye. :o

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 11, 2017, 02:17:45 AM »
The halocline has all but collapsed.

Perhaps you could highlight on that ITP 95 T&S plot what you consider to be evidence for your assertion?
Had just been musing on the potential benefit of having a third profile contour plot to go with the temperature and salinity ones, namely, the water density profile. (Or could instead plot the gradient of the density.)

That should be easily derived from the information already in the other two and would show more directly where the density gradient was small i.e. 'halocline all but collapsed'.

Is that third profile contour ever plotted along with the other two?

That would be REAL nice wouldn't it.

If anyone could recommend  an app  I can download that can work with the matlab file types they provide the raw data in I wouldn't mind having a go.
Anyway Looking at :


The blue salinity 34 contour is well within swell mixing level of the surface and its only 34.7 at about 150m depth where the temp is up to 1.8 degrees.

Heres ITP 7 from 2007 for comparison. Reached Fram straight in mid September.





Here we have 33,32 even below 32 all the way to fram straight down to 100m
A layer that hasn't existed for a couple of years on the ITP record over 35 at the very bottom. Of very warm very salty water. All the early years have it. Not sure if its still there but deeper, or co-mixed now. But the 0C contour is down at 150m with lots of very cold stable above it.

I found  a salinity / temp / pressure  density tool here:
http://www.csgnetwork.com/water_density_calculator.html
A few results. 1dbar is just over 1m depth:

Salinity 34.7,  1.5C 150dbar  =1028.477g/L,   1027.769 at surface
Salinity 34.7, 1.8C 150dbar = 1028.453,   1027.747 at surface
Salinity 34, -1.5C 20dbar = 1027.456 ,   1028.081 at 150dBar
Salinity 34,  -1.8C surface = 1027.368,  20dbar = 1027.464, 150 dbar = 1028.091

A 1/1000 to 1/ 2000 difference looks pretty unstable to my uneducated eyes.


Perhaps the ITP95 DO contours tell a better signature.
They have bottom to top upwellings solidly represented for the last month.


32
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: August 10, 2017, 12:04:05 AM »
Meanwhile its 4.1C on the Antarctic Peninsular, and Raining. In the middle of the coldest month in Winter.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/08/10/2100Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/equirectangular=-169.52,-85.14,822/loc=-63.535,-69.962

Would have put this in "whats New in Antarctica" but this happened last year too.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 09, 2017, 06:14:59 PM »
In the continuing absence of SeaIceSailor's excellent animations, here's the latest IMB buoy temperature profiles. I don't think 2017A is down to zero just yet! 2017B's floe is now below 1 meter thick.

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2017-imb-buoys/

Gosh that water looks warm. Isn't  2017b collocated with itp95? its not showing water above about -1.5 at the surface though the halocline has all but collapsed despite at 84nth 13.6east it is well inside the pack and barely moved in a week. With a big bundle of heat building from 75m down.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 01, 2017, 08:43:13 AM »
A larger than usual polynia is establishing in the "Laptev Bite".
Does anyone know what causes this polynya? Currents? What is the significance of it being larger than usual?

I Concur with Johnm33 that its probably more Atlantic Water making it into the Laptev. The tides may be involved but I think Wip's excellent earlier animation illustrates whats going on very well

The ice front pushed up against Svalbard, Franz Josef Land and the end of Sev'Zem' seems to be depriving the Atlantic water of the opportunity to slip off the shelf, and it looks from that animation that rather than sliding down the channel that you can see on the Bathometry on the Laptev side of the channel between SZ and the mainland:

Where last year a slice in the Ice opened above it in Wips Gif, this year it looks to be more strongly flowing, and in obedience to mr Coriolis, hugging the Laptev coast instead.

 Perhaps its less saline hence easier able to stay in the shallows, due to mixing with, from what looks like to me in the below image, an almost entirely over shallow bottom, Florida to Laptev melt-water front. This sort of scenario has been concerning me greatly for sometime. There's over 1500km of shallow shelf between the coast and the edge of the deeper basin where it can be more safely stowed past that point :'(

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 30, 2017, 11:47:05 PM »
<snip; N.>

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 30, 2017, 11:21:55 PM »
    : NeilT  Today at 07:07:24 PM

        Very little in the Beaufort looks safe right now.


    Nice 15 m/s wind right now and staying like this for a while (Earth nullschool).

From that view, it looks to me like the ice on the Pacific side will compactify to the northwest and be  kept safer.  Are animations of low pressure systems misleading?

The most unsafe ice looks north of the Barents sea.

The 49km/h, 2.7C southerlies over the Nares strait look interesting...

Yes they are. Ice drift is considerably to the right of what direction the wind is pushing it. not sure how many degrees, something like 30-60 degrees if memory serves. I think theres formulae based on berg thickness, windspeed etc.
Could be a little compaction as it queues to get thru the CAA channels, but only real compaction possible looks to be against Sev Zem. Which is bad cause it seems to be making the hot Atlantic water build its current through the straight and along the Siberian arctic shelf, and probably freshen it enough to keep it on the wide, shallow shelf mixing zone.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 29, 2017, 12:52:37 PM »
There's less heat in the Barents Sea this year than last, but there is more heat entering the Arctic through the Fram strait, flowing into the Arctic on the north side of Svalbard than last year. That warm salty water is flowing along the continental shelf break below the cool surface water. SSTs do not tell the story on the Atlantic side of the Arctic because the warm Atlantic inflow is at intermediate depths.

I just came on line to comment (again) on that exact point. I've just spent the day downloading  all the ITP buoy data and charts, and comparing what they show changing for the last seven years in the state of the layered gulf-stream, Atlantic, pacific, and arctic surface waters. <snip, no one is saying that; N.>  But it does look to me very much what I've feared is happening.Buoys in similar location at this time as 95 north of Svalbard such as 37 in 2010 show a distinct deep saltier and hotter gulf-stream flow sinking of the shelf to 600+m depth. This seems to have occurred until the last 3 seasons, and now an increasingly co-mixed inflow of gulf-stream, Atlantic and surface melt is fattening and coming in directly under the fresher surface layer. Without as much evaporation or radiant heat disposal ability this water is six degrees hotter than last year where topography cause the currents to surface near Svalbard and FJL. We now have a full circle around the Arctic of continental shelf uncovered by Ice as a kill zone for floes flung out and a free for all mixing zone. the Pacific water is less than 25m down all round that end from Siberia to the CAA, where its not already fully mixing near the coasts. Not only does this mean all the oceanic incoming heat is remaining in or near the surface, but It stands every chance of lowering its salinity enough to fully mix away the entire Fresh Arctic surface water layer when the ice really loses all its peripheral extent a month from now. Mixing water of differing salinity also releases a lot of latent energy by the way. More melt-waters being exported than ice so its less visible, and other than cooling incoming surface air for a little while,which really is the only plus, it also reduces outgoing longwave and makes for damp fog that dews out everywhere on the Ice. We don't have thick chunks capable of clogging the CAA channels so they are venting melt and slush like never before, nor do we have remnant multiyear being hoarded in piles at the Siberian side. We have one Fat and Mixed slug of warm Atlantic water oozing in underneath to help flush out the fresh melt and river outflows, and hotter and more voluminous  Pacific inflow coming in with all it needs to maintain surface buoyancy layed on.
Heres the ITP95 and 37 comparisons, and tracks overlayed with sample periods matched up.  I've checked Every one and all show this trend. No more burying the gulfstream deep to soak away its heat into heavy rejected brine, and slip out quietly in the deep exit channel I'm afraid. Dont be confused by the changing colour codes either. These guys have been playing games with the chart colour scales and its been driving me nutso.

38
Should not be neglecting the prospect of abrupt isostatic rebound events. The huge volumes of fluid water and carbonate rich magma underlying the fringes of the continental shelves allow very big and abrupt uplifts, and trench block subductions when you lose large coastal ice mass. This is probably why lake Titicaca is full of oceanic species and remnant salinity with isotopic ratios identical to the Pacific. there is a tilted tide line down both the Andes and coastal range from Titicaca to the south that suggests the 12000ft high Altiplano was a gulf open to the Ocean to the south and all the indigenous people of south America tell of a massive uplift and Megatsunami sometime in the last 20000 years.
Very plausible for Greenland too. you go into a climate flip when suddenly its no stop heavy warm rain on Ice sheets, they will reach a level of soggyness that will allow cascade slumping all around the fringes.The Agassiz  burst event or events were probably slush slump rather than an actual subglacial or ice dammed actual lake. I'd be very concerned about Greenland as a priority once the Arctic loses its halocline and floods with warm Atlantic and Pacific waters to the surface. Torrential rain nonstop in winter on Greenland and you got maybe a week to get well inland and to decent altitude. And worldwide cascades of Storegga style underwater landslides would very possibly be triggered. Rapid ice loss probably triggered THAT one.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 28, 2017, 11:54:12 AM »

a flooded floe, 1st year since it still holds together under water. Happens pretty commonly on rivers. (funny thing but you can still safely walk on this if you are a republican.)

But you can make out the disturbance of the ships track in the background. It looks slushy enough that its just being pushed out of the way by the bow-wave, then swirling around and closing up again behind the ship?

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 28, 2017, 11:48:15 AM »
Been a couple of interesting readings in the last few days on the ITP95 charts, the buoy Nth of Fram strait co-located with 2017B. Shes basically drifted due east 10 km in the last 3 days since the 24th July update to now 84.9N 8.76E on the 27th. Inset on the sentinel hi res image are 20x20km worldview tiles of the exact spot on the 27th, small one unadulterated and the larger with as much detail as I could wring out of the fog. The big Sentinel image is as close as I could get a clear shot, from the 25th and goes to 83 nth and 7 east. Should be pretty similar Ice conditions I would think.

I've put a frozen pic of what I commented on a few days ago here too for those who seem to really want it.

Anyway. Seems to have been an upwelling of low oxygen water from 1km+ depth. And perhaps a small rise in the salinity associated. Perhaps a slight temperature boost towards the surface and fattening of the warm strata, but difficult to say it was a contributor.
Then soon after there's a big down spike in the temperature and salinity contours, particularly at about 150 to 200m. About a 30m downwards excursion.
Are the two associated? Is this an ekman pumping vortex, or some other phenomenon? Has a plume of more saline water risen, perhaps methane, or hydrothermally  driven, then cooled and descended.
I've been pondering if another mixing factor could come into play, around a certain floe diameter, perhaps optimised in the couple of hundred meters to a km range, when open water is surrounding floes like these. If the bottom is salty, and melts at -1.8 or so as with recently formed ice that's concentrated its brine at the bottom of the floe. And the water around has risen in temp a bit due to a bit of insolation and air interaction. Perhaps a bit of fresher warmer surface melt adding to it, aided by the humidity condensing on floes thin enough to be conducting the energy to their base which is pegged by salinity to below zero.
Wouldn't there be a tendency for water to sink under the flow, and draw in more water from the periphery to replace it? Is this plausibly a significant mixing process in a poorly seasoned FYI ocean state like we now have? This floe has registered twice as much bottom melt as top melt.
I guess that the open water areas being in the order of a km there is plenty of opportunity for wind induced surface movement, chop, and turbulence anyway.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 01:11:01 PM »
Strewth! I have a knowledge archive that includes several million images that I have right clicked and saved over the years, and several hundred times in the last couple of months I've done this and attached them to posts on this forum. And I'll thank you not to insult my German ancestry too! My great grandmother was kept in a labour camp here in NZ till seven years after WW1 because her parents came from Hamburg in the 1860s. I have muslim yugoslavian ancestors, also Dutch, Scottish, Welsh, English, Northern and Southern Irish with Spanish from the Armada involved there too. Most of my ancestors were born in great wars, and sodded off down here to get away from bricks through the windows cause they married the enemy. Can we lighten up a little?
 

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 27, 2017, 12:15:40 PM »
Cupla Gifs from some playing around looking for decent Sentinel imagery from the 24th.

Doesn't seem to scan further nth than 82 degrees, but some of the resolution is pretty impressive. big mixture of image qualities and contrasts.
First is north of CAA and Nares, second north of Svalbard, FJL, and SevZem.

We've got raised beaches all round NZ at about 30m above sea level from the Eemian. And none of our ships could handle stormy seas that can throw house sized boulders 5km inland and 50m above sea level in the Bahamas likes supposed to have happened from that Abrupt Greenland melt and the North Sea storms resulting. I kinda think a coastal species like us naked apes would have noticed a little Deconstruct.

43
reading back through the thread I was reminded of the microcat sensors of itm5 which were placed at 79N last August. What I don't understand is the change in pressure, they all seem to be at lower pressure, 10 dbar less than a year ago. This might be that somehow they are sitting less deep in the water or does anyone have a better explanation? Temperatures have risen at all 4 sensors which isn't explained by a change in depth (if that is what happened) because temperature is higher at greater depth.
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=154416

that is very odd looking. every single one of them looks like its risen more than 10m in the water by the pressure change and all at the same rate. Maybe the cables got all twisted up and tied itself in knots near the surface, giggle. Or someone mistook it for a fishing line and tried to pull it up to see if anything was hooked on it. Or had ideas about recovering some copper for the scrap metal dealer. ;D

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: July 27, 2017, 09:53:20 AM »
Wow Jim! that 2.5m thick stuff in peel sound sure looks solid. (red square)
Especially compared to the 1.5 m stuff in Larsen. (red circle)
 ::)

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 09:05:26 AM »
No one is offended, but you could also try to download the image (right-click, 'save as') and then upload it to the forum (click 'attachments and other options' and then 'browse' to link to the downloaded image file).

Danke Schoen Meine Fuehrer!
Dis ist Korrect, Yah!
I did not realize I could do that.  ::)

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 03:42:57 AM »
Obuoy 14...

Don't think those are meltponds anymore. Thats gotta be sea level. Looking at the temp and humidity around 95% for the last week at least its been constantly dewing water vapour and dumping latent heat into that slush. raising the temp to zero C all the way to the bottom. The buoys been rocking and rolling so it can't be much thickness left anyway, and those "ponds" all look the same level and rather dark.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 27, 2017, 03:15:52 AM »
Here is an animation of some reasonably cloud free frames between Svalbard and the pole 17-26 from worldview. And stills of the 17th and 26th, and a wide from Greenland-Sval-Pole from the 25th to show the location. Despite north-east drift it looks to me that a fair bit of the smaller slush melted out between the larger floes opening up water area, despite general compaction.
The big Floe is about 30km diameter.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2017, 01:38:52 AM »
Is there any chance you could refrain from linking to live ITP plots in future? Whatever point you are attempting to make will become even more difficult to discern as the days, weeks and months pass.

Sorry if you fin it offensive. I've put a comment on the post in red with the day to reduce the confusion. I kind of like being able to check on how things are unfolding without having to go to the buoysites personally. The temps and salinity still seem to be fattening fast especially upward in the Atlantic layer. And the surface has now spiked in temp.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 26, 2017, 02:10:49 AM »
Looking at 2017A and 2017B's melt rate graphically: 2017A, located in the Beaufort side of the CAB, IMHO should finish melting in 1-2 weeks. It is ~350km deep inside the pack but in a region of 75% concentration on the Bremen maps, a region which might disappear quickly if the buoy's floe is typical.
2017B between the pole and Fram seems like it could survive the season with its current melt rate. It is now ~300k deep inside the pack, at a region of 75-100% concentration. It is moving south at an average ~35km per week (highly variable), and its melt rate might increase sharply if it encounters Atlantic waters.

Yes, well itp95 is in the same place and its showing a significant rise in Salinity and temperature. [moving images, comment made day 206]


Also big plummet in dissolved oxygen suggests upwelling from depth.


I make it about here and its looking very loose and vulnerable to me.
Remember that the gulfstreams been deprived of its ability to evaporate water vapour and lose heat because of lack of Atlantic hurricanes last year, and being under a lid of fresher meltwater since off New York. Its probably hotter and fresher than we've ever recorded before and may be much more buoyant than anyone is expecting.
Second image about 150 by 300km

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 11:37:13 PM »



2017A

ID Code: 300234063536320
Date: March 9, 2017 - Present
Type: SIMB
Initial Location: Beaufort Sea
Deployment: UW-WARM Array
Co-located Instruments: 50m WARM Buoy, Side Kick Web cam, ICEX Drifting buoy, SVP

Conditions at Deployment (3/9/2017):

Snow Depth: 0 cm
Ice Thickness: 85 cm


Current Buoy Data (07/24/2017):

Pos: 76.99 N, 150.75 W

Air Temp: -1.9 C
Air Pres: 1002.7 mb

Current Ice Observations (07/24/2017)

Snow depth : 0 cm
Ice thickness : 38 cm

Since Deployment (03/09/2017)

All Snow Melted
Ice Surface Melt: 33 cm

Ice Bottom Melt : 43 cm

Status of Instrumentation:

All Sensors reporting
A couple Spurious Snow depths after snow on 4/14/17
Many bad Sounder Readings after 7/5/17

A week ago:

Ice thickness : 56 cm [down from 79 in week to 17 july]
Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
All Snow Melted
Ice Surface Melt: 30 cm
Ice Bottom Melt : 32 cm

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