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Messages - lanevn

Pages: [1] 2
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 14, 2019, 10:38:39 AM »
The forecast is brutal for a large part of the Arctic but as some of us long-term watchers of this no the Western Canadian basin is the Goldilocks area without the Western Canadian basin being decimated you cannot get a new record low.

We could see a cop 3 season without the Western Canadian basin getting decimated but we're not going to be 2012 unless there was a pattern change in the weather that brings sunlight and warm air off the Canadian land mass into the Western Canadian basin to cripple that multi-year ice right now no matter how windy it is there's a cold air in clouds.

Yes that massive high pressure is bringing heat to the CAA.

but that's still not going to be enough for a new record unless we see a pattern change soon.


And as it stands the weather looks pretty stubborn on keeping the Russian in Pacific side getting smoked by the Canadian side is protected.

this will bring for a spectacle but it will not bring a new record low if it doesn't change

There is one more way for new record low - in 10-20 years it will be possible even without proper weather pattern.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 08, 2019, 08:22:57 PM »
Unless there is a legit Arctic dipole anomaly with a negative NOA after May 15th through June.

what's happening now just won't cut it if you're looking for records without that.


I don't know if we can say we are due.

But we are due.

And what's chances it will happen? I even heard that 2012 weather conditions is something like 1 vs 100, because previouse melting over 100% territory of Greenland happened more than 100 years ago. Were it really exceptional weather?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 08, 2018, 03:50:08 PM »
The St Lawrence is interesting. No matter that area in winter is declining substantially over the years, the final collapse seems to be the first week in June regardless. The start of winter area gain seems also the same no matter what.

It's alwayse "false ice" near shores detectes and 1 June is probably day when they remove that region from calculations at all.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 08, 2018, 02:12:53 PM »
So this year we have heatwaves, rains, near solstice date, all ice enemies united.... but sea ice area decline stalled again. Something wrong with this world, or with data.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 06, 2016, 07:03:46 PM »

day  CT-date       NH               SH                Global
Sun 2016.4219 -156.5  9.143601 +100.7  9.460318   -55.8 18.603919
Mon 2016.4247  -97.3  9.046325 +199.8  9.660105  +102.5 18.706430
Tue 2016.4274  -71.5  8.974842  +51.3  9.711446   -20.1 18.686288
Wed 2016.4301  -41.3  8.933579 +148.2  9.859658  +106.9 18.793237


And where is current increase in area?

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 13, 2016, 01:44:28 PM »

Look at the 2012 Arctic ice sheet trend line......then gap it down....and then start the June "plunge" a little earlier than in 2012 (like in a week or two from now)....and then steepen the descent.

THAT....is how 2016 will likely end up.  And that brings us to a "before unheard of" drop.  Just a continuing story of what will unfold in the future.

This shouldn't be "surprising" to anyone here.  Disappointing....YES.  Surprising.....NO.

November elections are coming up quickly in the US.   DO SOMTHING ABOUT IT.

I think this will exciting, disappointing if it will end with nothing, like 2013-2015.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 13, 2016, 01:02:06 PM »
The North Pole is light green!
Is that good?

It depends on the point of view

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 10, 2016, 10:40:25 AM »
Is there somewhere longterm forecasts? I know they have low probability, but anyway.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 01, 2016, 09:28:59 PM »
Ah, it correctly "polynya"

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: May 01, 2016, 09:25:22 PM »
Just wonder, is Pollyanna an english word? It mean "meltpond" in Russian and maybe in some other languages, but google translate show something strange for english.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: April 27, 2016, 02:58:57 PM »
Not so fast already :-\

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 19, 2016, 10:46:25 AM »
It is Veliky Ustyug. 60°45'21.7"N 46°19'31.7"E Yesterday it were even airstrikes on ice hummocks

Pretty sure it's Kostroma near where the river of the same name runs into the Volga.

Ice hummocks is a problem of rivers, that flow north, Volga is flow south.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 18, 2016, 01:45:45 PM »
Ice don't want swim to arctic this year.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: March 30, 2016, 12:01:51 PM »
Oh yeah.  The Kara surface melt on today's image has expanded.

Incredible

Can you share that image here?

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015/2016 freezing season
« on: March 05, 2016, 10:08:17 PM »
Seaicesailor: it's more important to look at the June-August period when most melting occurrs. Which gives a little different picture (Courtesy NOAA):



//LMV

Not enough for record low

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: January 17, 2016, 06:13:54 PM »


That's where sea ice gone

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 19, 2015, 11:01:14 AM »
Polar bear doesn't look too upset )

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 13, 2015, 03:25:24 PM »
The only unconfirmed data about last 2...3 years of actual net methane annual emission in Arctic which i happened to see not so long ago - suggests that said emission was nearly doubled in 2013 and once again nearly doubled in 2014. Sadly, i am not at freedom to provide the source here.

Something like hacking NASA's satellites?

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 15, 2015, 01:48:54 PM »
Maybe they don't like to show record lows )

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: May 13, 2015, 09:15:00 AM »
Thanks, it works.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: May 13, 2015, 08:37:03 AM »

Wipneus, can you link legend for JAXA melting map, pls?

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: March 14, 2015, 12:28:52 PM »
Quote
*two days* is a very flimsy basis

That's not my basis.

Here, this is what I mean, the forecast for next Thursday:
Living in the cold place, I can say that in march temperature of air doesn't mean so much. 0C with clear sky melting much more snow than +5C cloudy weather.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: March 08, 2015, 06:29:55 PM »
And Papa Bear is coming to chase off the small ones.
Can you link this service?

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: March 07, 2015, 12:12:25 PM »
If you wait 22 days and no new max arrives, your max candidate is the (mad) max.)
More fair will be to say "If you wait till march 31"

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 04, 2015, 11:41:57 AM »
Very interesting developments. I wonder two things: What will PIOMAS do with all this, and when will it bounce up again, and by how much? OK, that's three things.

I think NSIDC will help to PIOMAS - their vision is slighty different from ijis )

26
Were that ice  "floating" or it added now to sea level rise?

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February)
« on: February 15, 2015, 01:18:57 PM »
piomas for europeans with shale gas and etc  8)
Sorry, I ment "americans" ofc.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February)
« on: February 13, 2015, 11:26:42 PM »
They have been strikingly different the past two falls and the most recent press release the folks running cryosat claim it's 99% accurate.
Cryosat is for europeans with renewables and energy savings, piomas for americans with shale gas and etc  8)

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (February)
« on: February 10, 2015, 10:39:10 AM »
This is why I believe we may be heading for a new ice–age or a new 'Snowball Earth' scenario if the planet gets even hotter.

Several days ago you predicted record low this year.

30
Permafrost / Re: Arctic CH₄ Levels Winter 2014—2015
« on: January 29, 2015, 08:19:40 AM »
Obviously not CH₄ I'd say, though the lack of discussion might suggest just that.

Obviously lack of discussion because lack of interest to ASI. It is not interesting to track if ASI this year will be 5th or 7th low. Low chances for record low => low interest for ASI.

31
Permafrost / Re: Arctic CH₄ Levels Winter 2014—2015
« on: December 14, 2014, 06:37:40 PM »
What sence to draw only one month - which trends can be illustaited so?

32
Permafrost / Re: Methanetracker.org
« on: October 15, 2014, 12:11:26 PM »
Doesn't work anymore?

33
Antarctica / Re: Will Antarctica sea ice set a new record in 2014?
« on: September 22, 2014, 11:32:59 AM »
Wow, 16.807, looks like time to correct models into another direction ).

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 14, 2014, 11:51:12 AM »
It is huge gas field Bovanenkovo http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovanenkovo_gas_field

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 13, 2014, 02:11:08 PM »

Giant hole in the Yamal's permafrost.



Though can be fake.
They say it is somewhere here https://www.google.ru/maps/place/70%C2%B028%2742.8%22N+67%C2%B047%2752.8%22E/@70.4785556,67.798,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x0 Can anyone find this location in modis photos? I don't know how to find coordinates there

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: June 27, 2014, 12:08:05 PM »
What's wrong with Beaufort last days - is it really refreeze?

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: June 24, 2014, 09:04:20 AM »
I am reminded of the collapse of the Beaufort in 2012, news of which is what drew me into this forum in earnest.

Maybe Neven's blog? This forum didn't exist that time.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: June 11, 2014, 10:29:53 AM »
ClimateReanalyzer now has forecast maps for just the Arctic. How awesome is that?!? *cheers*

And it shows +30C at Laptev,s shore June, 18,  xD

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: June 01, 2014, 02:05:09 PM »
00z ECMWF is looking awfully 2012-esque...
2012 in forecasts and still 2013 in actual. I begin thinking of Murphy's law. Maybe we need to use instead "Mother of gods" and etc something like "That is sooo casual forecast and I am so happy of it" and this will help at last to see exiting things  :)

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: May 23, 2014, 11:18:32 PM »
Could it be soot from Siberian forest fires?
less distant shoot of Siberian forest fires.

Looks like at 1:05 who were in burning car really got that award (.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« on: May 08, 2014, 08:15:32 PM »
@crandles

April 2014 were colder than april 2013 for that graph, so it is normal that it lost his second place.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 28, 2014, 09:41:46 AM »
SIE is continuing with a slow decline. Compaction? Refreeze of open water in the CAB and other places?

It were "torch" :D

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 23, 2014, 07:31:00 AM »
It is much more likely to provide insight into weather conditions in the near future than temperature maps.

It is so, but I hope that meteorologists in their temperature forecast already include that and very many other factors and that seeking of "torches" on 850, 500, 10, 0.0001 hpa maps when there is no of them on temperature map is like skeptic's rapid recovery after each snowfall.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 22, 2014, 08:59:46 AM »
Why hPa forecasts so popular here? Do not say that because it is easier to speculate with them, than with temperature forecasts  :)

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: April 11, 2014, 11:50:19 PM »
Thanks

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: April 11, 2014, 03:46:50 PM »
Can you say where to get AMSR2 map for any day. I can find only for last day, and the day before last.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Operation IceBridge - Arctic Spring 2014
« on: April 09, 2014, 09:35:21 AM »
>>From today's flight, one of the tallest icebergs ever seen

Is it something for scale?

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 08, 2014, 08:54:44 PM »
Popular now shale gas can be more AGW friendly than even coal, because significant part of it just escaping to atmosfere during fracture. Looks like no real research about this, but there were some videos with flaming water and etc.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: April 04, 2014, 04:25:10 PM »
I didn't worry about radiation, ofc only during from Fukushima ocean got x1000 or maybe x1000000 radioactive materials. But shore erosion speed impressive. And it looks that Russia official structures really monitoring situation in arctic, just without public discussion (What could they offer anyway?).

P.S. Gismeteo reprint everything with relative keywords, often without source links. It can be article from climate sceptics and next article from climate alarmists ).

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 04, 2014, 04:01:27 PM »
Here it is:


70% of snow cover in central greenland  :o?

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