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Messages - Shared Humanity

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 06, 2019, 06:33:33 PM »
I'm not sure if it would make any difference. And GDP is a truly narrow measure, far from being the best. But it's the only one. Health, happiness and environmental protection follow GDP - the higher the better. Total consumption also follows GDP which is a definite downside.

Our only objective should always be the maximum happiness for the most people. Biodiversity and sea level must take second place to maintaining and protecting food production.

In an ideal world we would have started a massive drive to avoid AGW some decades ago by using government funding to jumpstart a shift in energy production away from fossil fuels. But any such plans were doomed from the start, I think, and are not very likely to be adopted in future. We might stumble into a sharp reduction in CO2 emissions simply through the increasingly favourable economics of renewables, but there will be an absolute minimum of conscious common effort to do so. Unfortunately. But not an existential threat to civilisation.

I don't know where to start...simply remarkable.

BAU will deliver a 4C warmer world by the end of the century at a minimum. This global temperature is absolutely incompatible with human civilization. Will we drive ourselves to extinction? No. Will those of us who are alive wish they were dead? Perhaps.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: December 06, 2019, 05:02:02 PM »
There have been changes, yes, the Beaufort gyre stopped, the MYI is vanishing rapidly etc. etc.

The Beaufort gyre hasn't stopped. Ice, FYI and MYI, is still being transported from the central CAB and north of the CAA into the Beaufort and continues along this path into the Chukchi and ultimately the ESS. In the past, this movement of some of the thickest MYI served to preserve it, resulting in the very thick slabs of ice found throughout the Arctic Ocean.

...by far the best explanation of the behaviour of arctic ice, when it melts and how fast it melts, is found by looking at the changes in temperature and not hypothesising about MYI or the Beafort gyre.

Yes, rising temperatures are the best explanation for the behavior of the arctic ice, when it melts and how fast it melts, but the local temperatures in the arctic are what is driving melt and needs to be understood. The science calls this amplification and falling albedo is a significant factor in this amplification.

Arguing that a global surface temperature measure is the best explanation for the seasonal behavior of the arctic ice is a lot like following the S&P 500 as the best way of evaluating the fortunes of a single company. I would not make any forecast on that company's future nor would I buy its stock based on the movement of the S&P 500.

If we try to understand arctic amplification, what is driving temperature anomalies in the arctic and the resultant sea ice loss, we necessarily need to look at what is happening in the Arctic, how are things changing?

Others here have said it far better than me but the increasingly lengthy ice free conditions of the Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS have turned the still very healthy Beaufort gyre into an ice killing machine.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-regional.png?attredirects=0

MYI is now melting out instead of being preserved. This explains the dramatic drop in the thickest MYI. The changing role of the Beaufort gyre and its impact on MYI is certainly something to watch and has far more impact on the ice from season to season than a small uptick in the global temperature.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: December 05, 2019, 01:43:52 AM »
So all in all I'm not at all convinced that we are looking at any existential threat to civilisation. I'm actually pretty optimistic that wars and famines can be avoided even in a worst-case AGW situation, and I'm absolutely convinced that humanity will not be able to do anything purposeful to avoid what is going to happen.

So, in summary, we can do nothing about AGW and everything will be just fine.

I'm not going to block you but I am certainly going to skip over anything you write from now on.

4
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: November 29, 2019, 03:52:22 PM »
Nice to see the Lincoln Sea freezing up and resisting the Nares.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 27, 2019, 09:25:51 PM »

No, growth does not have to end.  Materials can be reused/recycled.  New sources are available, and organic sources are inexhaustible.

You might want to reconsider this statement as...

"Half of the topsoil on the planet has been lost in the last 150 years."

https://www.worldwildlife.org/threats/soil-erosion-and-degradation

6
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 26, 2019, 01:43:55 AM »
Wait a few days.  A big snowstorm is approaching.

Approaching where?

7
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 21, 2019, 05:04:18 AM »
Today in Chicago, it was sunny with a high of 48F. Tomorrow's high will be 54F but a lot of rain in the forecast. I would say the melt could continue but there is no snow to melt here.

8
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: November 20, 2019, 12:14:33 AM »
The biggest problem with population is that there is absolutely nothing we can do about it, short of genocide.  I mean, what exactly would you suggest, forced contraception?

Saying that population is a problem is like sitting on a beach and saying that an approaching tsunami is a problem.  Yes. It is.  But there is nothing you can do to stop it.  The only thing we can do is try to figure out how to deal with the consequences.

This is a very difficult problem and genocide and forced sterilizations are not the solution. The thing is, if we can't figure out a solution, mother nature will impose it's own and it is going to be nasty.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 19, 2019, 08:27:35 PM »
The Beaufort, ESS, Laptev and Kara Seas are all south of 80 degrees. The increased insolation has to be a contributing factor to their melting out just as ice north of 80 degrees is less prone to melting.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 19, 2019, 07:54:08 PM »
Let's play a game, a thought experiment. Let's imagine that the entire NH consisted of one vast ocean, no continents or islands to impede the flow of water or the movement of ice. Who here feels that we would already be seeing BOE every year?

(raises hand)

This is, however, not the NH we have. Why do the Beaufort, ESS, and Laptev so readily melt when the basin is proving more resilient?

(Hint: There are reasons. Feel free to pick and choose yours.)



I would argue that bathymetry, proximity to the pole and topographical features which impede the flow of water and the movement of sea ice are a few of those reasons. By the way, these reasons are not going away.

Because I believe these things, there are some new developments over the past few years that concern me. The garlic press is one. The lift off of all MYI from the coast of the CAA and Greenland is another. This ice use to hug the coast but the thickest MYI can now be found drifting north.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 19, 2019, 07:47:20 PM »
To my eyes, the correlation seems to be very speciuos judging from the images above, and the apparent correlation on on the Atlantic side could have more to do with the island groups there than the bathymetry around them. Ice happens on  the surface, and islands breach the surface.

But the islands in fact exist right where they exist, correct? As does the CAA and Greenland exist right, in fact, where they exist. These islands don't, in fact, exist in the middle of the Beaufort and I dare say they likely will never exist there as they seem perfectly happy to exist where they do.

Having said that, the existence of these islands has an obvious effect. They serve to constrict the flow of ice from the Arctic to the Barents where it all would most certainly melt in the summer. These islands then are one reason among many that contributes to the persistence of ice near the pole. They make it more difficult to melt than if it could flow freely into the Barents.

(The CAA and Greenland effect the ice in a similar way but to a larger degree.)


12
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 19, 2019, 07:39:22 PM »
A reminder of minimums and bathy since 2012. I would say there is some correlation on the atlantic side.
Indeed. And no correlation on the ESS/Beaufort fronts.
I'm afraid that this supposed "correlation" is only due to the fact that both the ice and the deep ocean tends to be towards the middle at the end of the melting season. A bit like the correlation between global temperatures and Caribbean piracy (one of the fundamental tenets of pastafarianism).

To my eyes, the correlation seems to be very speciuos judging from the images above, and the apparent correlation on on the Atlantic side could have more to do with the island groups there than the bathymetry around them. Ice happens on  the surface, and islands breach the surface.

I get that you feel strongly that there is nothing unique about the ice in the basin that tends to remain at the minimum nor is there any reason to suggest that the ice that tends to exist at the minimum is any more difficult to melt than ice in the peripheral seas.

If you look at the animation, it is clear that ice generally survives the melt season, even the most severe melt seasons, along the coast of the CAA and northern Greenland from McClure Strait to the Fram. This ice at minimum extends to and generally beyond the north pole. This persistent behavior suggests that there are very real reasons that this ice is more difficult to melt. Persons here have suggested bathymetry, the shorter season for sunlight, proximity of Greenland and CAA which serves to anchor or at least minimize movement of the ice pack. You resolutely refute every suggestion provided and then insist that those here provide reasons for suggesting the ice is more resilient. Whatever the reason or reasons, the simple fact is this ice has proven to be more resilient than the rest and there are reasons for this.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 19, 2019, 02:43:02 PM »
I also think that Greenland has an impact on the sea ice. This relatively high albedo mass of ice should result in a localized climate that is generally colder across all seasons and would serve to protect sea ice on the Canadian side of the basin. It isn't an accident that the last remaining thick MYI tends to hang out along the Greenland coast and the CAA. The CAA also plays a role here as it has snow cover and higher albedo far longer than other areas of the Arctic.

14
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 17, 2019, 06:08:45 PM »
You can create SWE animations for Canada from 1979 to 2012 here.

https://www.ccin.ca/index.php/ccw/snow/past/swe


15
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 17, 2019, 05:51:03 PM »
 Trends in snow cover data for 1950–2012 in Canada. Upward (downward) pointing triangles indicate Positive (negative) trends. Solid triangles correspond to trends significant at the 5% level. (Vincent et al. 2015).

https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/past/snow_cover_triangles.jpg

Trends are almost uniformly down during this time frame.

"Snow depth measurements are made daily at Canadian climate stations from manual ruler observation or from automated gauges that continuously measure the distance to the snow surface via ultrasound. Trend analysis of stations with continuous daily snow depth data from 1950-2012 (Figure 2) shows that the duration of snow on the ground has decreased almost everywhere in Canada with the largest decreases in the spring. The average decrease in snow cover over the period was 18 days and was accompanied by decreases in maximum winter snow depths and a shift in the date of peak snow accumulation to earlier in the season. The decrease in the maximum snow depth over southern Canada is being driven by less winter precipitation and a lower fraction of precipitation falling as snow in response to winter warming (Vincent et al. 2015). Satellite monitoring of the total snow covered area of Canada began in the early 1970s and these data confirm the significant reductions in spring snow cover seen at the climate stations."

16
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 17, 2019, 04:49:57 PM »
The departures this month (to date) are, I believe, unprecedented. In Chicago, the monthly temp to date is below the all-time coldest November, which is quite a feat considering we are halfway through the warmest part of the month! While we may see some moderation in the second half, a top-5 finish would appear likely.

Mini ice ages are phenomena that extend over thousands of years. I just find it odd that two weeks of 'unprecedented' cold anomaly across NA would cause anyone to be.,,

...now increasingly convinced we are hurtling towards a localized resurgence of the ice age, which will eventually become non-localized.

Having said that, it appears the trend of positive snow fall anomalies early in the winter in the NH are showing up again.

17
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 16, 2019, 09:53:30 PM »
Currently 40F and sunny in Chicago. 3 inch snow from earlier this week is disappearing. Highs for all of next week are from 40F to 50F.

18
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: November 14, 2019, 04:02:02 AM »
Live in Chicago...it was damn cold Tuesday morning. Broke out my winter down parka earlier than any recent year.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 11, 2019, 07:00:38 PM »
The Arctic is certainly a mix of different seas.

Some here believe there is no real difference.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (November 2019)
« on: November 10, 2019, 05:36:46 PM »
bbr - I, and I suspect others, would appreciate it if you would explain in more detail how the land ocean balance creates consequences for civilization.  I thought I knew about the various feedback loops, but this one is new to me.  Thanks for considering this request.

We are going to go way off topic if we discuss this here.

NH snow cover and its attendant impacts are discussed here.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2876.50.html#lastPost

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 10, 2019, 05:29:20 PM »
Rapid refreeze now underway in Hudson Bay, should sustain for the next several days at least.

very late start but it will catch up and freeze over completely.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: November 09, 2019, 04:59:24 PM »
My 2 cents worth which, due to market demand, is only worth a penny.

Thinner ice is more fragmented, mobile, dispersed and saline IMHO. All of these would cause this ice to go poof faster than thicker ice.

23
I'm so lost, Sark.  Sorry for my ignorance, but what is the GIF showing?

Looks cool though.

24
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: November 05, 2019, 09:31:08 PM »
Looks like fram

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 05, 2019, 06:13:00 PM »
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

While there are arguments pro and con - "sealing in heat", less venting to space, less snow vs more humidity and warmth in the lower atmosphere, more insulating snow, etc. etc. I have to defer to Occam's Razor: more and earlier freezing is good for the ice; less and later freezing is bad. This is probably overly simplistic and there are likely countervailing samples here and there across the arctic, but overall, that's my guess.

I agree. Also more and earlier melting is bad for the ice; less and later melting is good. This is why ice free days for individual seas is such a good metric to track.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: November 03, 2019, 02:52:52 AM »

27

28
Consequences / Re: Worst consequence of AGW
« on: October 28, 2019, 06:17:17 PM »
Climate change is wiping out Harriet Tubman’s homeland, and we’re doing little
https://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2019/10/24/climate-change-claiming-harriet-tubman-homeland-among-other-key-sites/hCnqd8w61SdnWBVJvfYTkI/story.html?fbclid=IwAR3PGCxtFnUKlzzRye5QG4Bz9Xf4NxxsDO4vJ9xMaGWe-XiK1IPdJ8UcE9g
Quote
The Chesapeake Bay and the rivers that feed it are rising, along with most of the rest of the world’s bodies of water, encroaching on the now-marshy expanses where Tubman lived and worked alongside her father, Benjamin Ross, a gifted woodsman. The land is subsiding, too, as farmers withdraw water to irrigate crops and communities reach ever deeper into the aquifers for clean drinking water. Graves, some unmarked, are collapsing, hidden in woods next to forlorn houses of worship. Ghost forests dot the landscape, once-lush loblolly pines reduced to mere skinny sticks; timbering thinned the forests, and saltwater intrusion is trying to finish the leveling.
The loss of these lands will make it much harder for future generations to understand Tubman’s story and how the community of freed and enslaved peoples networked and relied on each other to free themselves from bondage. That Maryland — and the rest of the nation — might be willing to lose these places speaks volumes about how governments and preservationists view the first lands that African-Americans were able to call their own.
Every coastal area on Earth is in this crisis, of course.

The Chesapeake Bay coastline including the tidewater sections of the rivers is 11,684 miles long. All of it is low elevation tidewaters. The entire U.S. Gulf coastline is 1,631 miles.

29
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: October 28, 2019, 05:50:06 PM »
Even Yusaku Maezawa has left his day job to start training for his (2023?) SpaceX flight around the moon.

So, something we did 57 years earlier. I suppose if some ultra wealthy person included his pet Schnauzer on the trip around the moon that would be even more compelling evidence we are ready to colonize space.

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 28, 2019, 04:07:50 PM »
This understanding does not require dogmatic belief that humans are changing the climate exactly as the (gasp) "climate community" (gasp) says.

I must have blocked you a long time ago and I don't recall running across blocked comments from you recently. I decided to click to read your comment and now know why I have you blocked.
 
Carry on but this is the "Electric Car" thread so if you could try to stay on topic that would be nice for those who have not blocked you.

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 28, 2019, 03:58:37 PM »
What happened ?

A nihilistic government missed to regulate it!

Biomass works great in Germany, where it's regulated.

Given our desperate need to capture and sequester CO2 from the atmosphere in order to reduce the current levels of atmospheric CO2, biomass is not the direction to go.

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: October 28, 2019, 03:55:08 PM »
Space Colonization begins with non-astronauts visiting space.

The Fraught History (and Inevitable Future) of Space Tourism
https://lithub.com/the-fraught-history-and-inevitable-future-of-space-tourism/

How in the hell is putting wealthy people into earth orbit represent a step towards space colonization when we have successfully put astronauts into space orbit for the past 6 decades?

33
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 24, 2019, 01:59:24 AM »
Wow. This thread is really depressing. Maybe it should be retitled to people doubling down on climate change. Many of these locations should be evacuated, rather than cool the outdoors and truck in water for toilets.

They do a pretty good job of depressing you over on this thread too.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2728.150.html
I often find AbruptSLR's postings on the multiple meter sea rise thread to be downers, too.

Neven should provide discounts for Prozac for visitors to this blog.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 24, 2019, 01:23:37 AM »
Agreed...I visit every day for the updates.

35
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 22, 2019, 10:56:35 PM »
Wow. This thread is really depressing. Maybe it should be retitled to people doubling down on climate change. Many of these locations should be evacuated, rather than cool the outdoors and truck in water for toilets.

They do a pretty good job of depressing you over on this thread too.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2728.150.html

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 22, 2019, 06:01:13 PM »
The historically late advancement of the Arctic Sea Ice extent is quite noteworthy, to say the least. It is also fascinating that so little attention has been paid to this ongoing event on this forum. Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.

We're all paying attention to it from what I can see. 

37
Now there's new papers coming out of China in 2019 that I don't even want to read any more. 

This is where you attach links to papers if you want this thread to be useful.

38
Thank you all for not just laughing at me.  Although it is kind of funny.  What I have posted on this thread is truly thrown together by a completely unqualified researcher in full batshit mode.  There will be a more thorough and thoughtful write up, in time.



I think this is a hugely important topic...very complex and if it could be truly understood we would understand the world of hurt coming our way as this goes to the very heart of climate change. Very happy you created this thread. I visit often but have little to contribute as it is too complex for me.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: October 18, 2019, 07:18:16 PM »
I agree that the XR movement is getting out of control...

I could not disagree more strongly. Young people don't want to live in a world where hundreds of millions die (perhaps billions) due to climate change. Given the stark fate they are facing, I'm thinking they need to up the pressure.

40
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: October 18, 2019, 07:12:39 PM »
The condition of the ice off the coast of Greenland in that first animation is scary.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 17, 2019, 09:23:19 PM »
Thank you for the comprehensive update.

42
16 days!!

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 14, 2019, 02:05:34 AM »
Extremely well explained @gerontocrat

If there is anything where I'm in agreement with the vast majority, which is rare ;) ;) it's that it's a real pleasure and very enlightening to read through your posts.

I agree...great post.

44
so if the warming doesn't get you , bbr's snow most certainly will . Just chill .. b.c.

Unpacks parka...

45
Just wait til it keeps snowing into July, then August, and we get a year without a summer at all in these regions. At that point the only thing left to do will be to LOL.

I like this thread and am absolutely certain that the trend towards increased NH snow cover in the fall is directly due to changes driven by AGW. More stretches of open water, increase in atmospheric water content and a loopy jet stream that allows for Arctic air intrusions into the lower latitudes are all contributing factors. Never the less, despite these large positive snow anomalies in the fall and early winter, we are still seeing large negative snow anomalies in the spring and summer due to the much warmer temperatures rapidly melting all of this snow earlier and earlier in the spring.

When you insert comments like the one above, you actually undermine the very real expertise that you have when evaluating this new phenomena which makes this thread less valuable as a result. Your contributions here are valuable and I have made it a regular habit to visit. Perhaps we should wait for evidence that snow is persisting into the late spring and summer before we declare the beginning of the new ice age.


46
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf
« on: October 11, 2019, 04:31:20 PM »
It"s still hard to see but in my opinion the crack is heading to the edge. I have marked the outline as if it was a poorly visible outline (which may be a crack) which as if it were continued (stars) goes perfectly into the next crack.-Or maybe it's just an illusion-What do you think ?

source :https://www.polarview.aq/antarctic

ps.the photo has been subjected to several modifications for better contrast in low resolution

Not an illusion. As rifts begin to form, they can be snow covered and show up as depressions in the surface. I think this is what you are seeing.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: October 11, 2019, 04:28:34 PM »
Local winds and shoreline wave behavior certainly could contribute to cracks along the CAA and the north coast of Greenland but far more important are the ocean currents that have always been in play. Arctic sea ice has always either migrated towards the Beaufort or towards the Fram. Ice east of the Lincoln Sea will eventually find its way through the Fram while ice west of the the Lincoln Sea is drawn into the Beaufort. When the ice in this area of the Arctic Ocean was made up of thick (5 to 10 meters) rafts of MYI, these currents struggled to cause the ice to lift off and move. This thick ice no linger exists here. We have a melange of small MYI ice flows no more than 4 meters thick and thin 1st year ice that is highly mobile. I see no process that will cause thick MYI ice to reform so we should expect this lifting off behavior to persist and worsen.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: October 10, 2019, 07:38:06 PM »
jdallen:
The choice was between Hillary and the Donald.
Hillary was actively promoting the murder of something like a million preborn babies a year in the United States. A baby is far more important than any furbish lousewort (or even a mongoose).
How could I not vote for him?

And Trump is aggressively pursuing a policy that will lead to the deaths of billions this century and destroy God's creation (Mother Earth) if you are a believer. I believe he tasked us with caring for his creation in Genesis.

Now back to the question posed by this thread...

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2019, 07:30:26 PM »
Could be that Lorenzo's waves took a toll on the Atlantic Ocean side, especially around Svalbard?
Strange to see such a drop on October.
I think the continual export into FJL and Svalbard area over the summer was more unusual. Ice along the atlantic edge has been weakened or melted by sitting over a warm current all that time. Now the drift has temporarily? changed direction it offers little resistance. Yes, it's strange that this has come so late.
unihamburg amsr2-uhh, atlantic side, oct3-9
edit: looking at the forecast, export should resume shortly.

That's not just drift. There is extensive melt happening, most noticeably on the tongue of ice that had extended towards the Barents between FJI and Svalbard. Also along the ice extending south along the coast of Greenland.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October 2019)
« on: October 07, 2019, 04:39:48 PM »
I've been extolling the virtues of "The Slow Transition" concept over at Judy's, where my words of wisdom haven't fallen on entirely deaf ears!

While this is based solely on my reading the work of others here, I also think the slow transition concept has merit.

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