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Messages - wanderer

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 Year end IJIS Extent predictions
« on: November 21, 2016, 02:08:46 PM »
IJIS/JAXA SIE on December 31st for previous years (in million km2):

2007: 11.612
2008: 11.513
2009: 11.727
2010: 11.360
2011: 11.636
2012: 11.504
2013: 11.669
2014: 11.824
2015: 11.519

From Espen:
"IJIS:

12,273,075 km2(December 31, 2015)2nd lowest measured for the date just 81,638 km2 above 2010."

Isn't this the right Data?

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2016 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 16, 2016, 10:42:50 PM »
What does this mean regarding Albedo?!

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 20, 2016, 02:33:40 PM »
Well, 400k areawise below 2012... that's a statement!

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: June 05, 2016, 07:45:13 AM »
Extent increasing and area in free fall is never a good sign...

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May)
« on: May 08, 2016, 12:34:30 PM »
Latest value: 2013-3-31 21.612
Latest value: 2013-4-30 21.273

Latest value: 2016-4-1 22.337
Latest value: 2016-5-1 22.268

Am I misinterpreting something? Why is 2016 lower in the graphs than 2013?

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: April 23, 2016, 11:04:47 AM »
I bet we will see a new record. Temperatures are much higher than in 2012...

7
Consequences / Re: Direct consequences to total arctic sea ice loss?
« on: January 27, 2016, 03:00:02 PM »
How careless is that?

Even if it is not happening before 2035 (that would be early enough), how are we going to prepare for this, when there are no studies or simulations?
It must have a huge effect on climate zones, at least in the northern hemisphere...
I just found this article:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/arctic-sea-ice-loss-implications/

8
Consequences / Direct consequences to total arctic sea ice loss?
« on: January 27, 2016, 11:23:56 AM »
Hey!
Maybe someone posted something like that before, but I wondered if there are any studies or scenarios, how weather or climate zones would be influenced and changed, if the arctic is really ice-free in summer (or later totally ice-free all over the year), what would that mean for the rest of the world?

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 28, 2015, 07:31:08 AM »
Who said the melt season was over?  ;D

11
3.58 sq km now - i think we will easily end up 2nd.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: July 30, 2015, 09:01:07 AM »
Introducing two more graphs: extent and area of the restricted arctic basin (CAB+Beaufort+Chukchi+ESS+Laptev) for years 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.

This calculated  from three sea ice concentration data sets ( UH ASI AMSR2, Jaxa AMSR2 and NSIDC)

Greens are Jaxa, blue's are UH ASI AMSR2, reds are NSIDC), they are shifted u/d (and so have different y-axis's) for clarity.

The UH ASI line for 2012 is taken from the SSMIS data set. This data seems quite reasonably comparative to the AMSR2 data set but it adds another uncertainty so be extra careful here.



LINK



LINK

I think the graphs speak for themselves...

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: July 11, 2015, 04:26:58 PM »
Extent was lower 2012, no doubt.
But isn't area now lower, when you exclude Hudson, Baffin and Kara?

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 26, 2015, 09:01:55 AM »
Day 173: CT area

2015: 8.12031 million sq. km
2012: 7.72807 million sq. km

Difference just about 400k

2015 is 200k behind in Baffin, 100k in Kara, these regions will melt out anyway and won't trigger or delay other melting, so actually we are (100k) close to 2012

Nevertheless, 2012-arcticseaice still looks weeker to me here:
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=06&fd=23&fy=2012&sm=06&sd=23&sy=2015

Here, 2015-arcticseaice seems to be (much!) weeker:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict/nowcast/ict2015062418_2015062500_040_arcticict.001.gif
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict/nowcast/ict2012062418_2012062500_035_arcticict.001.gif
(But i think ice thickness was underestimated in 2013 and 2014 as well...)

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 23, 2015, 10:32:14 PM »
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Temperature is up the roof! :o
 

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 23, 2015, 06:29:42 PM »

CT Area:
8,119,646 km2 (22 June [Day 0.4712])
Down 5,154,909 km2 (38.83%) from 2015 maximum of 13,274,555 km2 on 17 February [Day 0.1288].
532,248 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

2015 is 532k above 2012.

Baffin: ~ 200k behind 2012 -> will melt
Kara: ~ 100k behind 2012 -> will melt
Barents: ~ 100-150k behind 2012 -> will melt

2012 is just a little bit ahead in Laptev and Beaufort, other regions are almost the same.

So... I expect more losses soon, nothing is decided yet.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 13, 2015, 05:15:58 PM »
And on Monday CT-area will accelerate further:

Sat       9.342906
Sun -93.0  9.249906
Mon -143.4  9.106457

(CAB -55k, Barents -29k, CAA -28k)

Seems like the cliff is finally there!

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 11, 2015, 07:56:39 PM »
I am not convinced.

Agreed, I am neither. And after all, sea ice has three dimensions. Just compare Hycom + Cice thikness for  June 11th 2014 and 2015.

2015 is miles ahead nearly everywhere
Wow, even 2012 seems to be reachable!

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 11, 2015, 06:30:01 PM »
You can look at satellite images at EOSDIS Worldview.  In my opinion 2013 was worse at this date (I linked 3 days later to get a more cloud free view), and 2014 about the same.  Use add base layer to choose bands 3-6-7 to get a false colour (enhanced or filtered colour?) view which shows red for melting, orange for dry frozen snow/ice, and paler oranges to white for clouds.  This helps show that the ripple pattern is probably clouds.  Images at this site go back to 2012.  The MODIS equivelant used to go back to 2008 or 2009, but a hard drive failure wiped out the history.  I've also seen images going back to 2006 and 2007 but I don't know if anyone actually stitched the individual satellite snapshots of a small area together for a wider view of the Arctic.

I am not convinced. Looking at worldview I think 2015 is way ahead of 2013 and also ahead of 2014. Beaufort - we are one week ahead of 2014 and weeks ahead of 2013. And this is one of the most important melt regions and there's lots of old ice nearby. ESS, Laptev, Barents: here's 2015 behind, but not that much... Kara, Chukchi - 2015 ahead!
In my opinion it's pretty sure that we will beat 2013-2014, 2012 will depend on the weather and in 1-2 weeks we will know much more!

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 06, 2015, 12:59:51 PM »
For those watching EOSDIS/worldview, a reminder that the display projection switched on June 6th 2013, so  direct day-to day comparison with both 2014 & 2013 will be possible from then on...

Today's the day  :)

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 05, 2015, 07:45:51 PM »

2014 vs 2015 ocean surface temp anomalies
 

Wow, huge difference!
Could you do 2012 vs 2015 please? ::)

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 03, 2015, 09:53:07 PM »
Anyone else surprised that CAPIE/compactness is relatively high?

Not at all surprised. As of today we are even above 2014 CT area.
Maybe this will change in the next few days as Wipneus calculated some bigger drops!
Otherwise I expect that we have another slow (boring) melt year ahead...


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: May 31, 2015, 06:10:25 PM »
Who is expecting a big melt year?

CT area: we are already above 2012 and some other years http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Volume is likely to be higher than the years before and not looking at data, but taking a visual look at Worldview, 2012 seems to be ahead in most regions: https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/

Extent is low, but how long will this last?
After 2013 and 2014 I wouldn't get too excited, at least not as early as now...

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: May 26, 2015, 05:45:17 PM »
Looking at https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/ 
and comparing 2012 to 2015 on Cryosphere Today
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=05&fd=24&fy=2015&sm=05&sd=24&sy=2012
(with the PIOMAS estimates in mind)
at least the CAB 2012 still looks "slushier" to me. But as long as the weather forecasts stays that bad for sea ice, I think I will be more convinced soon that 2015 is a big melt year!


29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: June 28, 2014, 09:39:57 AM »

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: June 06, 2014, 10:08:20 AM »
Today is the day - for a quick and easy "overall" comparison with https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/

since the projection changed exactly one year ago:

"On 2013-06-06 the polar projections changed as follows:
The Arctic projection changed from Arctic Polar Stereographic (EPSG:3995, "Greenwich down") to NSIDC Polar Stereographic North (EPSG:3413, "Greenland down")."


As of today, you can compare 2013 and 2014 easily again - not the best tool, but for a quick look, how different 2014 is compared to 2013, I like it very much (being just an interested lurker and no scientist  :P)

31
I'll wait until June 10th - as this week seems crucial!

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: April 08, 2014, 08:23:53 AM »
Stupid Question #1920:

Why is arctic sea ice volume still growing and sees its max in April, whereas extent and area see their max in March?

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2014 Melting Season
« on: March 16, 2014, 09:40:46 AM »
What's the weather forecast for next week?

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 11, 2014, 05:55:16 PM »
Everything is possible - especially after last year - and... speaking of area:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
2013 was a long time very close to 2012 and even slightly ahead until day 130- almost the same around day 150 and still not too far away around day 200 - but I personally would bet that 2014 will beat 2013 (because of winter warmth), everything else is still uncertain!

36
Walking the walk / Flying
« on: February 25, 2014, 04:56:00 PM »
I will fly at least twice this year, once for a job, once for holidays... of course I have a bad conscience about it (especially the "flight for fun").

I will compensate the CO2 - but I know it's just for my conscience - how do you cope with flying, although you are aware you are doing one of the worst things that you could do to the arctic ice on a personal level?
I tell myself that it really won't matter if I am flying or not, because as long as flights are this cheap, someone else will fly instead of me. Maybe that's just a foolish lie to myself,
I am the first to vote or sign for ten times more expensive flight tickets - but am unconvinced that a personal "abstinence" would change the world.
In other areas it's easier for me - I don't drive, I am pretty much eating local, seasonal and I am a vegetarian, but I don't think that one of those things is really making a difference, as long as our industries aren't under a "clean" controll and at least since I'm eating local, no food has to be flown in for me.

What do you think? Silly excuse or just normal way of living? (I guess we all make compromises) It all ends with the question, if a change on an individual level can compensate our wrong economy and politics?

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 25, 2014, 04:38:21 PM »
But it's kind of funny, how we are hoping for cool weather to safe the arctic - sooner or later the game will be over... and for public attention I even hope it is happening soon!

(Wanderer - nothing personal, many others have said similar things.)

Hej Chris - I don't really get the difference of our opinions - but maybe it was just my (bad?) phrasing. I think my view is pretty much like you described your point of view.
Although this summer I will fly... (with a baaad conscience :-\) - but lets continue this conversation somewhere else and leave this forum just for area and extent talk  ;)

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 25, 2014, 10:07:13 AM »
Temperatures down (still above last years), http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Snow cover up http://cires.colorado.edu/~aslater/NH_SNOW/

Maybe there is still hope for a cool spring!

But it's kind of funny, how we are hoping for cool weather to safe the arctic - sooner or later the game will be over... and for public attention I even hope it is happening soon!

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: February 18, 2014, 10:09:08 AM »
Svalbard:
"Last 30 days: Average temperature was -1.2 °C, 14.8 °C above the normal."

Crazy!
http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: December 29, 2013, 10:13:27 AM »
IJIS (December 28)   - 2013 is 2nd!

2010:
11,974,160
2ß11:
12,346,533
2012:
12,297,921
2013:
12,287,927

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: October 05, 2013, 09:23:00 AM »
Looks like a very fast growing season this year. Maybe we won't see summer ice-free Arctic before 2020 after all.

If official models correct not many of us will live long enouph to see summer ice-free Arctic in 2080-2100

2020s...tops

And the newest "official" models say 2050 (IPCC)

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 28, 2013, 07:13:55 PM »
Sure, I ment "two parts of shattered pieces"  ;-)

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 28, 2013, 04:56:19 PM »
I know it's pretty late in the melt season, but is it possible that it could break in two?
The difference to last week seems huge!

45
Nobody thought that the weather would be so bad and the temperatures would be so low...
Look at this: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_visual.png
If we would have had two weeks of melt-favorable weather, things would be very different.
Nowadays, with an ice-free arctic summer highly possible within a few years from now, accurate projections will be even more difficult, because no one knows for sure, when the final meltdown definitely happens!

46
Prepare for record August area loss!

47
Who thinks we will still see a New Record?
One week ago it seemed that 2013 could catch 2012, but now?
Anyway, I think we will see another cliff soon.

48
Quick Navy Thickness Comparison:
The positive and negative differences are obvious, but how will it turn out in the end?
I still think it's 50:50 wether we will see a new record or not!


49
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: July 15, 2013, 11:30:00 AM »
Refresh the page!

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: July 15, 2013, 11:21:33 AM »
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Nothing is too odd this summer ;-)

17 more days of this and we catch 2012 and 2007!

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