Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - miki

Pages: [1] 2
1
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: Today at 02:25:20 AM »

2
Policy and solutions / Re: What type of transportation do you use?
« on: April 13, 2019, 11:14:36 PM »
I use my bike to go to work, and for any other thing when possible, including daily groceries. We all go out with bikes, when we can.
We have two kids to drive to school and violin lessons, and use our car for that - not electric yet, but gas efficient - managing to have the most done with each trip. We have also put in place a good carpool system with other families to drive all our kids to school and sports, and that reduces dramatically the number of trips we all have to do.

We all fly once every two years or so, though, US<->Europe, to visit my family.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 09, 2019, 06:15:57 AM »

April 8th, 2019:
     an increase of 17,572 km2.     

Is this due to a real small re-freeze, or is it just ice spread around by winds?

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Ice edge at minimum poll
« on: April 09, 2019, 12:36:33 AM »
Green

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 31, 2019, 07:45:04 AM »
If we have melting conditions on June-August, 2019 will be terrible.
2019 is going to make me eat my nails, with the -165,712 km2 drop that we have today and the heat that we still have on the Arctic.

I'm there with you. Thanks for your postings.

6
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: March 29, 2019, 06:37:27 PM »
We may not be hitting that trend line again.

Do you really believe that temperatures will not rise that much in the future?

What he means, if I am correct, is that we may stay well above that trend line in the future. In other words, that trend line may well become a baseline (after we hit it again upward ;-)

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 17, 2019, 09:49:49 PM »
I normally push the Like button as silent thanks, but I'll join the public thanking ceremony. JCG's and Ger's area/extent posts are the ones I first read whenever I get the chance.

Same here. Thanks, guys. So much appreciated.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 12, 2019, 04:23:37 AM »
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/
Does anybody have problems accessing the website or seeing any of the images?

No problem here. I see the page ok on my macbook with Chrome.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 08, 2019, 05:50:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 7th, 2019:
     13,519,007 km2, an increase of only 5,771 km2.
     2019 is 3rd lowest on record.

Thanks, Juan! Really appreciated. Here every night for Geronto's and your updates.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 13, 2019, 06:51:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 12th, 2019:
     12,766,506 km2, a drop of -56,217 km2:o
     2019 is now the 4th lowest on record.

What the heck...

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 05, 2018, 05:59:16 AM »
[ADS-NIPR (JAXA)] ASI Extent.

December 4th, 2018:
     10,611,593 km2, a drop of -4,457 km2.
     2018 is now the 5th lowest on record.  :o

On and on, it does feel that the Arctic has had its 15 minutes, of freezing. Now, back to the requiem?

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 19, 2018, 09:43:17 PM »
Just to put in a different opinion, I find Aluminium's animations still quite useful. I do not they are not posted daily anymore, but actually every two days which is better in the current season. The developments in the Chukchi and Barents/Kara/Svalbard regions are still relevant and informative.

Ditto. Thank, Aluminium.

13
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 01, 2018, 03:49:25 AM »
Maybe not on topic on this thread. But here, anyway:
Oceans 'soaking up more heat than estimated'

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46046067

Quote
Researchers say that the world has seriously underestimated the amount of heat soaked up by our oceans over the past 25 years.

Their study suggests that the seas have absorbed 60% more than previously thought.

They say it means the Earth is more sensitive to fossil fuel emissions than estimated.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 15, 2018, 11:20:34 PM »
Well it sure would be great if A-Team could come back with those amazing animations and descriptions of the ice flow. Especially given what's going on with all the export of multi-year ice.   ;)

Ditto  :)

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2018, 04:24:34 AM »
And temp north of the 80th doesn't look is going to nose dive, yet.

16
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: September 29, 2018, 02:09:25 AM »
I have posted here before on the floods in Kerala. Here is something on the aftermath and the remarkable resilience of women. It is not coincidental that Kerala has a strongly matriarchal society.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/09/28/keralas-women-farmers-rise-above-the-flood/

Those women's meetings can get quite ... rambunctious. Some of the more obscene jokes I have heard in Malayalam have been at predominantly women's gatherings in Kerala.

sidd

Ah, Women! <3

17
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 25, 2018, 05:12:51 PM »
The question is: Do mosquitoes as a species have to go extinct for that?

Indeed, that is the most worrisome part.

18
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: September 12, 2018, 05:06:21 PM »
Trump administration diverted nearly $10 million from FEMA to ICE detention program, according to DHS document

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2018/09/12/document-shows-the-trump-administration-diverted-nearly-10-million-from-fema-to-ice-detention-program/?utm_term=.71662d8ba4e1


So, they took away $10 million from preparedness and recovery for citizens, from disasters and hurricanes, to cage toddlers and children at the border...


19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: September 04, 2018, 05:47:41 AM »
The trend is not in our favor  ;D

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Holy Sh!t: Year-Round Arctic BOE Imminent
« on: August 31, 2018, 05:51:40 AM »
Rod said: "there is enough heat trapped below the surface layer to melt the sea ice pack in "this region [the Beaufort Gyre]" "

Thanks, that makes sense. I had assumed that 'region' meant the whole of the Arctic, but in the context of the rest of the study, you're probably right that she just meant the BG.

But that is a pretty big area.

And combined with what FOOW is saying about Atlantification, that would indeed mean the end of most ice throughout the Arctic, wouldn't it?

Indeed.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 29, 2018, 04:26:53 PM »
Thank you Juan García and gerontocrat for your daily updates.
Very much appreciated !

Truly. Thanks!

22
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: August 19, 2018, 11:29:42 PM »
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180816143035.htm

‘Abrupt thaw’ of permafrost beneath lakes could significantly affect climate change models.

Aug16, 2018. University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Quote
The researchers found the release of greenhouse gases beneath thermokarst lakes is relatively rapid, with deep thawing taking place over the course of decades. Permafrost in terrestrial environments generally experiences shallow seasonal thawing over longer time spans. The release of that surface permafrost soil carbon is often offset by an increased growth in vegetation.

“Thermokarst lakes provide a completely different scenario. When the lakes form, they flash-thaw these permafrost areas,” said Walter Anthony, an associate professor with UAF’s Water and Environmental Research Center. “Instead of centimeters of thaw, which is common for terrestrial environments, we’ve seen 15 meters of thaw beneath newly formed lakes in Goldstream Valley within the past 60 years.”

Emissions from thermokarst lakes aren’t currently factored into global climate models because their small size makes individual lakes difficult to include. However, the study’s authors show that these lakes are hotspots of permafrost carbon release. They argue that not including them in global climate models overlooks their feedback effect, which occurs when the release of greenhouse gases from permafrost increases warming. That feedback is significant because methane is about 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide as a heat-trapping gas.

Existing models currently attribute about 20 percent of the permafrost carbon feedback this century to methane, with the rest due to carbon dioxide from terrestrial soils. By including thermokarst lakes, methane becomes the dominant driver, responsible for 70 to 80 percent of permafrost carbon-caused warming this century. Adding thermokarst methane to the models makes the feedback’s effect similar to that of land-use change, which is the second-largest source of human-made warming.

Unlike shallow, gradual thawing of terrestrial permafrost, the abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes is irreversible this century. Even climate models that project only moderate warming this century will have to factor in their emissions, according to the study.

“You can’t stop the release of carbon from these lakes once they form,” Walter Anthony said. “We cannot get around this source of warming.”

Ref: Katey Walter Anthony, Thomas Schneider von Deimling, Ingmar Nitze, Steve Frolking, Abraham Emond, Ronald Daanen, Peter Anthony, Prajna Lindgren, Benjamin Jones, Guido Grosse. 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes. Nature Communications, 2018; 9 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9

This sounds...kinda...bad...  :-\

Link to the paper.
I've not even finished to read it and I'm already wondering what was I thinking, having two kids!?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05738-9

21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes

Abstract
Permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) modeling has focused on gradual thaw of near-surface permafrost leading to enhanced carbon dioxide and methane emissions that accelerate global climate warming. These state-of-the-art land models have yet to incorporate deeper, abrupt thaw in the PCF. Here we use model data, supported by field observations, radiocarbon dating, and remote sensing, to show that methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century. Abrupt thaw lake emissions are similar under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by ~125–190% compared to gradual thaw alone. These findings demonstrate the need to incorporate abrupt thaw processes in earth system models for more comprehensive projection of the PCF this century.

23
Arctic background / Re: 2018 north pole expeditions
« on: August 17, 2018, 07:53:49 PM »
If they don't go this year, why do they need ice-breakers? ;)

Ditto  ;D

24

They may have experienced brief record heat but it has generally been much cooler than normal.

It is obvious you're not of these parts.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 02, 2018, 05:38:33 AM »

With that said, in answer to Neven's question, Zack Labe posted a really nice demonstrative on his twitter account on 7/31 showing the loss of the ice in the Beaufort caused by the recent cyclone.  It appears to be real and not a glitch.  I'm on my phone and can't figure out how to link it. 

However, I highly recommend checking out Zack's twitter post from 7/31/18.  Maybe someone more tech savvy than me can link it here?

Here's a link to Zack's twit:

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1024315118530658304

26
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 31, 2018, 07:53:55 AM »
"Google’s 2018 Statewide Fire Map for California lists all the active fires in the state for which California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) is responding. The continuously updated map is a good way for people not in the midst of the smoke to get a better understanding of the challenges currently facing the Golden State."


https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1HacmM5E2ueL-FT2c6QMVzoAmE5M19GAf&ll=40.66054230000002%2C-122.62579800000009&z=8

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 31, 2018, 12:26:39 AM »
I've just posted a pre-PIOMAS update prelude on the ASIB with lots of compare, compare, compare.

Thanks, Neven. Dense, complete and compare-ready.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 30, 2018, 10:14:48 PM »
There certainly is a lot of doom and gloom around here, as usual.  I'll dissent from that, with some predictions that don't involve the near-future collapse of civilization:

1. The first year with a sub-1 million km ice extent day will probably occur in the late 2020s or 2030s. 

2. Insofar as the past 40 years' reduction in September ice extent has induced some fairly subtle changes in northern hemisphere climate during the fall months, those changes will continue and get bigger as the ice extent at minimum shrinks, but there won't be any sudden game-changing effect from crossing the purely arbitrary 1,000,000 km2 threshold.

3. Subsequent years will bounce back (as 2013 did after the 2012 low) but extreme low-ice (under 1,000,000 km2) years will become more and more common until they are the rule, rather than the exception, probably by 2040 or so. 

4. The duration of that annual very-low-ice-extent period will expand during the second half of the century to produce first ice-free Septembers, then ice-free summers.  There won't be an ice-free year in this century, and probably not in the next, either.

5. There won't be any 50-GT "methane bomb".   There was none in the early Holocene when the Arctic Ocean was ice-free during summers.  There was none during the previous interglacial (MIS 5e), when the Arctic was quite warm.  There was none during interglacial MIS-11, when the Arctic was so warm for so long that virtually all the land ice in Greenland melted. 

6. An ice-free Arctic Ocean won't lead to the collapse of civilization. The Arctic is already halfway ice-free in September now, and the effects of that are not particularly civilization-imperiling.

I'm basically ok with the above, but only if the global temperature anomalies stay as they are, and, possibly, if the rate of arctic and global warming "miraculously" inverts drastically its current course.

Otherwise, I do not see how the ice, on sea and on land, would make it past the end of the next century.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2018, 03:58:54 AM »
but until we see year-round ice-free arctic it will take centuries

I very much doubt about that plural.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 28, 2018, 06:40:33 AM »
I'm fucking blown away.

But how??

I had called it the great spreading, some time ago. I guess, without real volume, it was "fake ice". A little stir, some warm water. And now the moisture / heat. Heck!

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 20, 2018, 07:24:35 AM »
Unless some real winter cold kicks in, I don't see how the arctic ice can go on to survive past the summer of 2022. Voted 2020-2025. Thanks, Neven.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 25, 2018, 07:42:55 PM »
Area is not effected by spread as much as extent is. Area loss has slowed because area loss has slowed.

Are you sure? I thought they where quite related. Or are you thinking of volume?
From Wikipedia:
"To estimate ice area, scientists calculate the percentage of sea ice in each pixel, multiply by the pixel area, and total the amounts. To estimate ice extent, scientists set a threshold percentage, and count every pixel meeting or exceeding that threshold as "ice-covered." The National Snow and Ice Data Center, one of NASA’s Distributed Active Archive Centers, monitors sea ice extent using a threshold of 15 percent."

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 24, 2018, 08:17:12 PM »
Another consideration is that the +anomalies this spring over Siberia will result in massive plumes of smoke come July and August, farther north than 2012's plumes. This will probably result in a knock-out blow to the CAB. There is going to be a tremendous amount of burning.

Open OT:
They were quite extensive in 2012, indeed. The fires in Siberia.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=78305

Close OT.

34
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: June 23, 2018, 07:43:01 PM »
A brilliant historic analysis of "capitalism", its roots & current implications...

By  Ariän Taher, in Truthout
June 16, 2018

Today’s Capitalism Is a Far Cry From What It Was Intended to Be

https://truthout.org/articles/todays-capitalism-is-a-far-cry-from-what-it-was-intended-to-be/

"So, what exactly do we name our economy? Whether neomercantilism, Keynesian capitalism, corporatocracy, fascism, really-existing-capitalism, or otherwise, it’s up to you, the People, who together toil, endure and persevere under the legacies of Hamilton’s system."

"Hamilton understood correctly: Capitalism, as Smith intended it, could not sustain the United States in unbridled competition. This understanding diverged the US economy from the path of capitalism, not moral reasoning regarding its inherent subjugation of laborers to the capricious will of amoral “merchants and manufacturers,” nor that its envisioned outcome of “perfect equality” is unfeasibly reliant on conscientiousness from economic elites, whose modus operandi is not altruism, but profit maximization, even turning philanthropy into philanthrocapitalism."

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 23, 2018, 07:17:48 PM »
The only notable Sea Surface Salinity event I've seen is that we have Atlantic water intruding farther poleward along Svalbard compared to previous years. Attached is HYCOM Sea Surface Salinity for June 22nd.

My guess ist, that in the future we'll talk about this year for what happened on the Atlantic side. Everything else is average or below, but the Atlantic side holds the cards for a stunning event.
The only thing looking at all average is the illusion you get from looking at extent distribution. The ice being pushed into Pacific and American side coastal regions by not before observed patterns of wind and currents. While you are used to seeing it shrink back from the coasts, this year it is threatening to go from the middle first or all at once.

Thanks, Hyperion, for putting this in simple and clear words. The 2018 "great spreading" has been in my thoughts for a while. Explanations and opinions abound on this forum. So far, though, what I find really interesting in this melt season it's its defiant behavior. Ready for surprises.

36
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 21, 2018, 05:58:38 AM »
The Arctic is only a heat sink for a small part of the year. The continents are a heat sink for far longer and take up much more area. Changes to albedo will ensure that we are at maximum warming between now ~2025 or so and increased continental albedo due to snowfall will quickly overwhelm everything else (providing an optimal spring heat sink and more than buffering the Arctic's dwindling capacity).

All that water vapor may eventually fall as rain, as temperature increases. And then, goodbye continental albedo.
Greenland is "too big to fail" i.e. will provide sufficient buffering, and does so especially when the sea ice is low.

I sincerely doubt Greenland alone and some snow on land will buffer the loss of the Arctic Sea Ice albedo. On the other hand, Greenland may be "too big not to fail". But of course, i'd rather be wrong on this.

37
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 20, 2018, 06:25:12 AM »
The Arctic is only a heat sink for a small part of the year. The continents are a heat sink for far longer and take up much more area. Changes to albedo will ensure that we are at maximum warming between now ~2025 or so and increased continental albedo due to snowfall will quickly overwhelm everything else (providing an optimal spring heat sink and more than buffering the Arctic's dwindling capacity).

All that water vapor may eventually fall as rain, as temperature increases. And then, goodbye continental albedo.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 16, 2018, 01:17:10 AM »
Quote
What  a "blue-ocean" event would look like?  some possibility this 2018 melting season. Does it look like  any of these?

The discussion on some forums reminds me of one soccer team moving their goal post into the grandstands and even out to the street but the other team somehow not noticing and still playing up to the newly contrived set-up. They'll never score a blue ocean goal because the goal post will then be moved to "twelve months for five consecutive years". After that, thirty years of stats needed to rule out "natural variation". Then more decades to rule out cycles.

Meanwhile we're already in big trouble now from Arctic amplification, with more of it baked in. Whatever the full effects of an altogether missing 'planetary refrigerator' might be, the partial effects of a diminished planetary refrigerator are already upon us. And that's just the albedo part ... there are many other adverse considerations in the literature.

Standing Ovation. Sincerely.

39
I think some also hope there's a new record so that the world springs into action to really tackle the dangers of climate change. I share that hope, but I enough about the Arctic to know when a new record is possible, and when not. Right now, I think it's still open, but it will take some exceptional conditions (records always do).

Since 2012 I've grown rather optimistic for the ice - it may be that, in spite of the downward trend, still weather, negative feedbacks and other conditions make it last a little longer - and I've grown rather pessimistic about the reaction of people and politics. A new record would be just a new record for a lot of people. Back to their wishful thinking sleep two minutes after.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 13, 2018, 05:24:22 PM »
Daily NSIDC Extent reveals an UPTICK of +17K. How unusual is this during the months June-July when the melting is at its largest pace?

Maybe it's just spreading a bit ?

41
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 11, 2018, 08:18:20 PM »
"When there’s not enough oxygen in the water, life can’t persist."
https://theoutline.com/post/4910/ocean-oxygen-levels-are-dropping-and-taking-marine-life-with-them

There are other stories about how our lakes and rivers are experiencing similar problems.
I wonder if these expanding dead zones have any relationship to jellyfish blooms? A large jellyfish bloom can decimate plankton populations and other small marine animals.

In this video lecture by Dr. Jeremy Jackson, it is explained quite well.
Brave New Ocean - Lecture by Dr. Jeremy Jackson, UCLA


42
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: June 06, 2018, 04:48:31 AM »
I plan to walk across the Rio Grande next week when I visit family.  ...
My great niece and I walked across the Rio Grande.  Although I found a spot a 20-30 cm deep, my g. niece was never in over her ankles.  (There were pools along the edge that looked like they might be deep.)  I learned that the channel that used to carry most of the Rio Grande during the summer in south central New Mexico is no longer used for that purpose, and I noted it was dry below a permanent weir, holding water for local irrigation.

Yeah! We call it now Rio Poquito  ;)

43
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: May 26, 2018, 01:32:31 AM »
U.S. ski resorts becoming less skiable.

What the Worst Winter in 60 Years Did to Ski Resorts
2018 was one of the driest seasons on record. How many resorts can survive another like it?
https://www.outsideonline.com/2310791/winter-really-was-bad-everyone-thought

“We are the people who can bring attention to this problem and help solve it,” Schendler says. “The outdoor industry is huge, bigger than Big Pharma, and we have wielded absolutely no power. What are you if you have the ability to solve a problem and choose not to? The outdoor industry and the ski industry can be the NRA on climate. We have to be.”

Thanks for the reference! Here in Santa Fe, NM, basically no snow season this year. It was a down not just for the ski basin resorts, but for a lot of other town businesses that count on it for the season. I bet it will effect next year as well. A lot of the folk that came here and found no snow this year, are likely to choose other less disappointing destinations next year.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May mid-monthly update)
« on: May 21, 2018, 06:54:57 PM »
Thanks, Wipneus, as always.

45
The rest / Re: Mueller Investigation & Cohen Investigation
« on: May 15, 2018, 01:35:01 AM »
And this one:

Michael Avenatti’s Mother’s Day bombshell, explained.
Stormy Daniels' lawyer doesn't take a day off.

https://thinkprogress.org/michael-avenattis-mothers-day-bombshell-explained-5492cd792fcf/

"Why was Ahmed Al-Rumaihi meeting with Michael Cohen and Michael Flynn in December 2016 and why did Mr. Al-Rumaihi later brag about bribing administration officials according to a sworn declaration filed in court?" Avenatti's tweet.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 13, 2018, 05:26:20 AM »
edit: the first movie wouldn't display, changed the output encoding( to mpeg4 - which again doesn't display - at least in my firefox/ubuntu setup. I'll leave it for now in case others can see it - it plays fine locally)

Thanks. I was able to download it. Really clear.

47
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: May 12, 2018, 12:50:33 AM »
You are not adding accuracy. You are lying. What do you have to gain by that? you are also part of this world and your life style is in danger, just like ours. Why are you working against your own interests?

Archimid, I think you are wasting your time. I have decided to do not waste mine, at least on this forum, dealing with this kind of planned "insanity"... that's why when I see a post by D.B., no offense, I just bypass.

48
SUBMIT VOTE button visible in Chrome.

I suspect he doesn't realize that the poll is the first message in the thread.

Thanks, Dharma, John!

I had already voted, silly me. So no button or chance to change.
But I'll stick with my early vote: 2019-2021

49
Feeling is that it will happen around 2020-2022.

I could not find the way to vote, though... am I missing it?

50
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: April 03, 2018, 05:17:15 PM »
Antarctica's Underwater Ice Is Retreating 5 Times Faster Than It Should Be

https://www.livescience.com/62203-antarctica-underwater-ice-loss.html

"In the new study, Hannes and his colleagues at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) at the University of Leeds used a combination of satellite imagery and buoyancy equations to map out the invisible retreat of underwater ice across roughly 10,000 miles (16,000 kilometers) of Antarctica's coastlines — roughly one-third of the continent's total perimeter."

*****************************

Antarctica 'gives ground to the ocean'

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43627673

"Scientists now have their best view yet of where Antarctica is giving up ground to the ocean as some its biggest glaciers are eaten away from below by warm water."

*****************************

Net retreat of Antarctic glacier grounding lines

Hannes Konrad1,2*, Andrew Shepherd1, Lin Gilbert3, Anna E. Hogg1, Malcolm McMillan1, Alan Muir3 and Thomas Slater1

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0082-z.epdf

Grounding lines are a key indicator of ice-sheet instability, because changes in their position reflect imbalance with the surround-ing ocean and affect the flow of inland ice. Although the grounding lines of several Antarctic glaciers have retreated rapidly due to ocean-driven melting, records are too scarce to assess the scale of the imbalance. Here, we combine satellite altimeter observations of ice-elevation change and measurements of ice geometry to track grounding-line movement around the entire continent, tripling the coverage of previous surveys. Between 2010 and 2016, 22%, 3% and 10% of surveyed grounding lines in West Antarctica, East Antarctica and at the Antarctic Peninsula retreated at rates faster than 25 m yr−1 (the typical pace since the Last Glacial Maximum) and the continent has lost 1,463 km2 ±  791 km2 of grounded-ice area. Although by far the fastest rates of retreat occurred in the Amundsen Sea sector, we show that the Pine Island Glacier grounding line has stabilized, probably as a consequence of abated ocean forcing. On average, Antarctica’s fast-flowing ice streams retreat by 110 metres per metre of ice thinning.

Pages: [1] 2