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Messages - Coffee Drinker

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 09, 2019, 02:08:15 PM »
Would you mind briefly describing why we are fu**? I see those cold anomalies over north America? What does that mean for us?
We are double-f*cked because as the Arctic is collapsing, the cold is now increasingly becoming focused in the grain-growing regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The crop situation this year across much of the Midwest is now dire. Yields will be double-digit %s below normal.

If this repeats next year there will be major food shortages for much of the developing world, IMO, as well as SEVERE winter and spring cold outbreaks in the developed world, particularly in the areas that have consistently trended colder since 2012.

In terms of raw data comparisons (2019 vs the 1981-2010 mean), the Arctic is still glowingly positive, although the - numbers are reduced in scope a bit across the continents. Nevertheless, I think the shift since 2012 highlights a new normal(ish?) pattern we are now spiraling towards, and it is very very BAD.

Thanks for the explanation. Indeed scary stuff.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 08, 2019, 01:56:01 PM »
Would you mind briefly describing why we are fu**? I see those cold anomalies over north America? What does that mean for us?

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 04, 2019, 03:54:52 AM »
There is more than enough heat in the deep water to melt the ice and keep the arctic ice free year round. 

However, the heat can not move upwards through the halocline. 

The halocline is 50 meters thick (at least) and is very difficult to breach.  If it ever happens, look out!   The arctic will be a completely different place.

Maybe more open water and wind will create warm upwellings along the continental margins?

4
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: North Greenland Fire?
« on: August 04, 2019, 12:55:24 AM »
Lightning on Greenland?

I highly suspect some of the locals didn't put out their campfire properly.

5
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 01, 2019, 05:00:25 AM »
Webcam at Freya Gletscher (alt. 1053 m above sea level) shows 15.2°C today. Of course I do not know whether this T measurement can stand quality standards of meteorology, but it must be pretty warm up there - also visible in even more melt ponds.
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

For comparison the same date in 2016 and 2017. 2018 is missing. I would say we have not yet reached the 2016 melt extend but certainly worse than 2017.

2016
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/2016/08/01/1200

2017
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/2017/08/01/1200

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: July 29, 2019, 11:37:50 AM »
I go with ice island circling around the pole. Northern Greenland can get surprisingly hot.

7
I was looking for a tipping point in the Baltic but the Finns say there is a gradual extension of the melting season consistent with a warming climate.

i.e. transition without drama.
The Baltic still freezes every winter. Also, its freezing faith is tied to weather systems moving in from elsewhere.

Well, parts of the Baltic freezes every winter. The southern parts rarely freeze over anymore. But once the southern part is frozen, spring is usually delayed by a month. This is based on my personal experience.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 25, 2019, 11:36:51 AM »
@deconstrut and binntho

Thank you, I do agree with what you say. Maybe I had those dark red colour in my memory from spring or autumn, not the middle of summer. The explanation, that the middle of the pack can't go much over 0C makes sense. Adjacent coastal areas, however, do get much warmer than they are now.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 25, 2019, 04:39:32 AM »
Somebody need to spend time up north near a frozen lake during summer and just observe. Arm chairs are nice...

It totally depends on the wind direction. I grew up at the Baltic Sea which is freezing in spring. Wind blowing from the land and there is basically no difference temperature wise between the beach and 50km inland. Same at the arctic coast. 30C air blowing over the ice from Siberia is entirely possible. How far the heat can travel over the ice largely depends on the speed of the wind and how sustained the heat transfer is. The statement that temperature is "locked" at 0C over the ice is simply wrong.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 25, 2019, 03:58:34 AM »
I have to agree with rich. Temperature anomalies (2m) are at best marginally positive (1979-2000 base). There were years where the whole arctic basin was dark red on those anomaly maps. Pretty much the whole Siberian coast is below average in the forecast.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/

Also we have to keep in mind that the 1979-2000 base belongs already to a long gone climate. So to get ahead with melting, average or marginally above temps don't cut it anymore.

What we need would be hot continental air (30C at surface) being driven over the ice either from Siberia or North America. Like what happened earlier this year when the Siberian coast or Alaska was at 30C and more.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 08:32:37 AM »
I think a BOE can happen any year now. Not as the new normal but as an outlier like 2012 was. You just need one year with the perfect conditions to align. Poor winter ice formation. Plenty of sun during peak insulation and heavy storms before and after that. I don't think a single BOE will cause the whole system to go into full disaster mode. The following years could easily recover and follow  the normal decline path until BOE's become the normal a decade or so later.

I guess, once BOE are the new norm, the next milestone would be real BOE. Meaning absolutely zero ice in September.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 24, 2019, 04:41:36 AM »
Our flora and fauna is not in a natural state anymore. In the past ecosystems were intact and species could migrate freely with the climate. Now they are perched into national parks and little island like refuges. Apart from few places, natural migrations are simply not possible anymore.


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 24, 2019, 12:01:54 AM »
This looks like the Great Arctic Anticyclone with strong winds and waves and clear skies. The sun still be high in the sky. I expect singnificant ice drop in any metrics.

High in the sky ? Under the anticyclone centre area (at 85N) the sun elevation angle will vary between 15 and 25 degrees.

Ok I know the sun does not set but from elevation angle POV, this is something similar to a January 10th afternoon in Boston, Mass.

the insolation is about the same as 30°N  right now. Are you saying that sea ice wouldn't melt under the Floridian Sun?

The only thing saving the ice from soaking up all those Watts is that it's still pretty white over a lot of the CAB, perhaps reflecting 60%. With that amount of sunshine it will darken quickly and as the ice thins the water under the ice absorbs more and more energy. The open ocean is going to soak up 90%.

I really don't think this is comparable. It makes a difference if the insulation is spread out through the day at low angles or highly concentrated during the noon period at an extreme angle (>80 degree). The Florida noon sun would burn the ice within a few hours while the current arctic sun would already allow cooling during low angle night. At this low angles, every little bump and ice pinnacle would create very long shadows.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 22, 2019, 06:18:52 AM »
May I ask whats so special and unusual about the temperature chart? For a layman this is not obvious straight away.

What I noticed was a forecast of 12 degrees C north of Ellesmere Island and a wide area out over the ice above 8 degrees.

Thank you. Maybe I don't get so hyped because I already see those temps as the new normal of the Arctic.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 21, 2019, 01:12:14 AM »
May I ask whats so special and unusual about the temperature chart? For a layman this is not obvious straight away.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 19, 2019, 03:30:49 AM »
Water temp in the Norton Sound has now reached 20C. Swim season officially open.

https://www.windy.com/-Show-add-more-layers/overlays?sst,62.945,-154.336,5,m:fsBaEX

17
I can't believe there is still ice in the Hudson Bay. How is that even possible?

Temperatures around the bay are pretty much summer like (Churchill 28C today) and the sun is burning down on the ice. Its identical latitude as the Baltic Sea which would never ever have ice in mid July, no matter how cold the winter was.

18
My prediction is 4.25

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 20, 2019, 12:59:58 PM »
The Freya glacier (Greenland) webcam is online again. Snow cover looks very bad compared to previous years.

https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 22, 2018, 12:04:51 AM »
Winter has returned to mountains near Eureka, Ellesmere island. Not sure of the elevation but you can see the sea. Maybe 400m?




21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 20, 2018, 03:09:01 AM »
Early winter in the Canadian archipelago? Temperatures around zero with snow showers expected the next days for places like Mould Bay and Resolute. There should be accumulation at higher altitudes.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Don't read this thread
« on: July 08, 2018, 06:21:27 AM »
Personally I think the first year without summer ice will be quite unspectacular.

The preceding years will already have approached the arbitrary threshold of "ice free" and then one year it will just slip over this threshold. Interesting from a statistical and historical point of view but no more exciting than the years before.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 15, 2018, 10:34:07 AM »
Are the anomalies really absurd? Its 6 days to summer solstice and Siberia does get hot in summer. I think its normal to have heat waves and periods of above and well above temperature in parts of Siberia. Western Russia is currently well below average. In a few weeks the pattern can change again. 

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 12, 2018, 12:32:07 AM »
There is currently 31C and sunny in Churchill. Whatever ice is left there is currently cooked and torched.

25
Apparently there is still good snow cover in Newfoundland and large parts of Quebec. Hard to imagine considering its end of May and their latitude (same as Paris for example).
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=47&run=18&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 04, 2018, 03:27:55 AM »
Major torch for southern Hudson Bay in extended forecast. Far out but 30C possible to destroy the ice.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=5&model=gfs&var=5&time=384&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0

27
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: April 29, 2018, 12:57:06 AM »
Good news. Never understood how it can be not catastrophic to spray the whole landscape each year with pesticides.

Still remember driving on the autobahn in the 80s. The windscreen was pretty much always covered in insect after a few hours. Now its largely clean.

But then I wonder what is the "normal" insect population? In the 1980s, we had severe issues with water pollution, acid rain and poor air quality. So its not like the 80s were cleaner or "better" than today.

I always try to think what else could be the cause of insect demise. For this you have to think like an insect and know what they like. Many insect species need water without fish. I know many of the rivers and lakes got much cleaner and now have healthy fish populations again. Not sure if this has an influence as well. Maybe insects loved the polluted water and had highly "inflated" populations?

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Land snow cover effect on sea ice
« on: April 26, 2018, 05:10:30 AM »
Isn't the Hudson Bay still 100% frozen over? How can the extend then vary at this time of the year? Shouldn't it be a straight line (full cover) until the first open water appears?
Active melt has begun and there are large areas of both open water and extensive fracturing.

Image from Wordview on the 21st, which of recent days had the best visibility.

Thank you. That was quite surprising for me considering the temperatures and the typical resilience of sea ice. There have been really only a handful of warm (>+10C) days so far and nights are still quite frosty. 

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: Land snow cover effect on sea ice
« on: April 25, 2018, 11:16:28 PM »
Isn't the Hudson Bay still 100% frozen over? How can the extend then vary at this time of the year? Shouldn't it be a straight line (full cover) until the first open water appears?

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Operation IceBridge - Arctic Spring 2018
« on: April 24, 2018, 04:40:57 AM »
Maybe those holes have something to do with the mud volcanoes in the Beaufort Sea?

https://www.yukon-news.com/business/mud-volcanoes-burble-beneath-icy-beaufort-sea/

31
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: April 24, 2018, 01:45:24 AM »
Does Miami have flood maps? In Australia those flood maps have quite an impact on houses prices already.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 23, 2018, 07:28:22 AM »
Open water now visible at Nome, Alaska. Spring has arrived with full force. 


33
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: April 20, 2018, 10:38:35 PM »
Churchill currently +12C and sunny. Strong melt around Hudson at the moment. Next days,however, should see dropping temperatures and blizzard conditions. So snow cover should regenerate for a while.

34
Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« on: April 18, 2018, 01:46:16 PM »
I still think we underestimate the influence of volcanoes on our climate. They are completely unpredictable but can have massive impact on our climate.

A few VEI7 or an VEI8 and we can throw all our climate models into the garbage.

Overall, I think the impact of volcanoes on past climate is not very well researched and many unknowns remain.

Why? We can measure level of sulphates scattering sunlight effect pretty well. Yes they have large effect for 2 or 3 years but then the effects diminish pretty rapidly in line with the models. Effects have been forecasted and turned out to be pretty accurate.

So why do you think we are underestimating the influence?

(I am asking because your post looks like a denier attempt to cast doubt on our climate knowledge. So wondering if you will engage in discussion or if it is a drive by post.)

There are still lots of unknowns. Lots of "mays" and "perhaps". And the effects of volcanic activity "may" well exceed the often cited 2-3 years.

Just came across this study about Antarctic volcanic activity that may have anded glaciation in the southern hemisphere.
https://theconversation.com/two-centuries-of-continuous-volcanic-eruption-may-have-triggered-the-end-of-the-ice-age-83420

And now worries, my intention is not to cast doubt on climate knowledge. I just think its an interesting field of research that requires more attention. Every piece of the puzzle is important. And at the moment we are very far from a complete understanding.

35
Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« on: April 18, 2018, 03:26:05 AM »
I still think we underestimate the influence of volcanoes on our climate. They are completely unpredictable but can have massive impact on our climate.

A few VEI7 or an VEI8 and we can throw all our climate models into the garbage.

Overall, I think the impact of volcanoes on past climate is not very well researched and many unknowns remain.


36
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: April 18, 2018, 03:21:02 AM »
We had less than a day's warning. (Michael Jäger)

Well, why didn't ya tell us earlier, Mr Jäger!

Damn those asteroid deniers!  They won’t take any action until they are 100% sure it will hit, and be bad.

;)

LOL  ;D

37
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: April 18, 2018, 03:19:41 AM »
I always found the disaster movies where we send up rockets to blow up approaching asteroids laughable. We could shoot a more accurate movie but it would be pretty boring.

Scene 1: Announce to the world we're going to all be killed by an asteroid in less than 24 hours.
Scene 2: Everyone running around hysterically.
Scene 3: We all die.

Don't think that would be a boring movie at all. Would provide some fresh air to the genre.

38
Temperature contrast in the US is just incredible. 30C as far north as Pennsylvania and West Virginia and and -5C with severe blizzard conditions around the Great Lakes, Wisconsin, Minnesota etc

39
Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: April 14, 2018, 01:04:25 AM »
Wouldn't the Amoc slowdown effects kick in way before the Earth warms at 4-5C?

4-5C is allot and I think we will have much more serious problems than AMOC slowdown by then.

40
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: April 14, 2018, 12:49:26 AM »
Regarding polar bear numbers, I found this interesting article in NewScientist. Its a bit old so there should be an update by now. Basically, we don't really know for sure how the overall population changes. So more research is required before saying the one or the other.

However, the ones that are declining seem to be negatively affected by declining sea ice. And the ones that are increasing seem to recover from previous hunting pressure.

Quote
[...]
Yet recently there have been claims that polar bear populations are increasing. So what’s going on? There are thought to be between 20,000 and 25,000 polar bears in 19 population groups around the Arctic. While polar bear numbers are increasing in two of these populations, two others are definitely in decline. We don’t really know how the rest of the populations are faring, so the truth is that no one can say for sure how overall numbers are changing.

The two populations that are increasing, both in north-eastern Canada, were severely reduced by hunting in the past and are recovering thanks to the protection they and their prey now enjoy.

The best-studied population, in Canada’s western Hudson Bay, fell by 22% from 1194 animals in 1987 to 935 in 2004, according to the US Fish and Wildlife Service. A second group in the Beaufort Sea, off Alaska’s north coast, is now experiencing the same pattern of reduced adult weights and cub survival as the Hudson Bay group.

A comprehensive review (pdf) by the US Fish and Wildlife Service concluded that shrinking sea ice is the primary cause for the decline seen in these populations, and it recently proposed listing polar bears as threatened (pdf) under the Endangered Species Act. The World Conservation Union projects the bears’ numbers will drop by 30% by 2050 (pdf) due to continued loss of Arctic sea ice.
[...]
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11656-climate-myths-polar-bear-numbers-are-increasing/

41
Germany gets endless sunshine at 25C next week. Not that this hasn't happened before and 30C days are not unheard of, but this year it basically went from March winter to April summer.

Can't really tell how this relates to climate change and sea ice, but it certainly feels "not normal".

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 13, 2018, 09:29:16 AM »
Since the turn of the century, the coolest summers have been 2014, 17, and 13, which showed in higher ice minima.
AGW denier daniel likes to hide behind the solar TSI, which has been languid for half a century, & low for 11+ years(including a 3+ year solar TSI low setting a 100 year record). With the 24 hours of sunlight(yet low TSI) on the High Arctic, sure there are cool summers. AGW denier daniel doesn't mention low TSI, which if not for AGW GHG energy increases, could have lead to a continuous decade of low High Arctic summer temperatures.

Can you please explain what you mean? The weak sun is responsible for colder arctic summers?

43
Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« on: April 07, 2018, 04:59:42 AM »
My assumptions justifying thinking the gulf stream will find its way into the arctic ocean.

1. A BOE will let the stratification of the arctic ocean be disrupted by wave action.

2. when the sun sets and things cool off with the stratification a thing of the past you get bottom water production rather than ice.

3. what drives the currents around Greenland and the CAA currently is the Earth's rotation the warmth coming up from the equator (gulf stream) and the large freshwater input from ice melt and run off.

4. it is the cold reduced salinity run off water plus ocean water surface water current that pushes the gulf stream away from the east coat of north America.

The freshwater mixes with surface water, if that becomes bottom water then the surface water needs to be replaced.  The cold water would sink rather than stay on the surface.  So instead of a current coming out of the arctic ocean past Greenland you would have a current going in instead.

No current pushing the gulf stream east.  So it would go north into the arctic ocean.

With 20C water coming into the arctic basin you could see 20C air temps over the water and storms like there was no tomorrow.

Where would you get those 20C waters from? We hardly ever reach 20C in the North Sea even during those exceptionally hot and sunny summers we had in the 90s. And that's like 2000km south of what is considered arctic ocean.

Just wondering.

44
Science / Re: Solar cycle
« on: April 02, 2018, 03:38:29 AM »
Good on you, Bernard,

I was hoping someone would come along and flatten this distraction at least in the ASIF- a sunspot in a teacup.

But you won't be able to stop it in the wider world. The Trumps, the Moncktons and the Pruitts of this world will seize on anything going the rounds, e.g. ---

<snip, removed link to climate risk denier websites; N.>
That website does seem to have something of an 'Agenda'.
<snip, removed link to climate risk denier websites; N.>

One could go as far as saying it appears to be a FAKE NEWS outlet.

Most website do have something of an 'Agenda.'  Unbiased reporting seems to have gone by the wayside.  Probably best to read many differing views to arrive at the best summary.

If it was only websites. But agenda and bias seems to be creeping into primary scientific research as well. No good times for science IMO.

And the joke we call peer review needs a major overhaul. Best is to only "believe" science of people you know and can trust. Talking to them at conferences an ask revealing questions is one way to go.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 20, 2018, 04:26:15 AM »
The thing is we will now have a myriad of deniers  pointing to the remarkable event of DMI 80 N hitting average!!

Are things so whacked out that 'average' is the new remarkable!

Average compared to 1950 to 2000. We don't have that climate anymore. So yes, its remarkable.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 18, 2018, 09:32:42 PM »
Haven't seen this for a long time. Below average temps across the arctic ocean.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/5day/

1979- 2000 Baseline... Still waaaaay warmer than 1750 pre- industrial (ca + 0,8- 1,4C).

Really hope we won't go back to 1750 baseline. Nobody really needs that in northern hemisphere. That was little ice age in Europe.

That is not his point. The map suggests that temps are just barely below average when compared to a 1979-2000 baseline which means they are actually well above recent historical average. Don't worry about ever going back to 1750 baseline in the next thousand years.

Almost everything will be above average compared to the 1750 baseline. That was one of the coldest periods in the last 5000 years. Using it as a baseline is extremely misleading.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 18, 2018, 01:59:32 PM »
Haven't seen this for a long time. Below average temps across the arctic ocean.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/5day/

1979- 2000 Baseline... Still waaaaay warmer than 1750 pre- industrial (ca + 0,8- 1,4C).

Really hope we won't go back to 1750 baseline. Nobody really needs that in northern hemisphere. That was little ice age in Europe.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 18, 2018, 08:58:02 AM »
Haven't seen this for a long time. Below average temps across the arctic ocean.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/5day/


49
Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: February 28, 2018, 08:43:40 AM »
Biggest threat to humanity is still an asteroid impact or super volcano with collapse of agriculture.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 25, 2018, 02:59:00 AM »
Is there a reason why the Baltic sea is not included in Arctic sea ice while Okhotsk is?

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