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Messages - Coffee Drinker

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 22, 2018, 12:04:51 AM »
Winter has returned to mountains near Eureka, Ellesmere island. Not sure of the elevation but you can see the sea. Maybe 400m?




2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 20, 2018, 03:09:01 AM »
Early winter in the Canadian archipelago? Temperatures around zero with snow showers expected the next days for places like Mould Bay and Resolute. There should be accumulation at higher altitudes.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Don't read this thread
« on: July 08, 2018, 06:21:27 AM »
Personally I think the first year without summer ice will be quite unspectacular.

The preceding years will already have approached the arbitrary threshold of "ice free" and then one year it will just slip over this threshold. Interesting from a statistical and historical point of view but no more exciting than the years before.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 15, 2018, 10:34:07 AM »
Are the anomalies really absurd? Its 6 days to summer solstice and Siberia does get hot in summer. I think its normal to have heat waves and periods of above and well above temperature in parts of Siberia. Western Russia is currently well below average. In a few weeks the pattern can change again. 

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 12, 2018, 12:32:07 AM »
There is currently 31C and sunny in Churchill. Whatever ice is left there is currently cooked and torched.

6
Apparently there is still good snow cover in Newfoundland and large parts of Quebec. Hard to imagine considering its end of May and their latitude (same as Paris for example).
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=47&run=18&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 04, 2018, 03:27:55 AM »
Major torch for southern Hudson Bay in extended forecast. Far out but 30C possible to destroy the ice.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=5&model=gfs&var=5&time=384&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&tr=3&mv=0

8
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: April 29, 2018, 12:57:06 AM »
Good news. Never understood how it can be not catastrophic to spray the whole landscape each year with pesticides.

Still remember driving on the autobahn in the 80s. The windscreen was pretty much always covered in insect after a few hours. Now its largely clean.

But then I wonder what is the "normal" insect population? In the 1980s, we had severe issues with water pollution, acid rain and poor air quality. So its not like the 80s were cleaner or "better" than today.

I always try to think what else could be the cause of insect demise. For this you have to think like an insect and know what they like. Many insect species need water without fish. I know many of the rivers and lakes got much cleaner and now have healthy fish populations again. Not sure if this has an influence as well. Maybe insects loved the polluted water and had highly "inflated" populations?

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Land snow cover effect on sea ice
« on: April 26, 2018, 05:10:30 AM »
Isn't the Hudson Bay still 100% frozen over? How can the extend then vary at this time of the year? Shouldn't it be a straight line (full cover) until the first open water appears?
Active melt has begun and there are large areas of both open water and extensive fracturing.

Image from Wordview on the 21st, which of recent days had the best visibility.

Thank you. That was quite surprising for me considering the temperatures and the typical resilience of sea ice. There have been really only a handful of warm (>+10C) days so far and nights are still quite frosty. 

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: Land snow cover effect on sea ice
« on: April 25, 2018, 11:16:28 PM »
Isn't the Hudson Bay still 100% frozen over? How can the extend then vary at this time of the year? Shouldn't it be a straight line (full cover) until the first open water appears?

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Operation IceBridge - Arctic Spring 2018
« on: April 24, 2018, 04:40:57 AM »
Maybe those holes have something to do with the mud volcanoes in the Beaufort Sea?

https://www.yukon-news.com/business/mud-volcanoes-burble-beneath-icy-beaufort-sea/

12
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: April 24, 2018, 01:45:24 AM »
Does Miami have flood maps? In Australia those flood maps have quite an impact on houses prices already.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 23, 2018, 07:28:22 AM »
Open water now visible at Nome, Alaska. Spring has arrived with full force. 


14
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: April 20, 2018, 10:38:35 PM »
Churchill currently +12C and sunny. Strong melt around Hudson at the moment. Next days,however, should see dropping temperatures and blizzard conditions. So snow cover should regenerate for a while.

15
Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« on: April 18, 2018, 01:46:16 PM »
I still think we underestimate the influence of volcanoes on our climate. They are completely unpredictable but can have massive impact on our climate.

A few VEI7 or an VEI8 and we can throw all our climate models into the garbage.

Overall, I think the impact of volcanoes on past climate is not very well researched and many unknowns remain.

Why? We can measure level of sulphates scattering sunlight effect pretty well. Yes they have large effect for 2 or 3 years but then the effects diminish pretty rapidly in line with the models. Effects have been forecasted and turned out to be pretty accurate.

So why do you think we are underestimating the influence?

(I am asking because your post looks like a denier attempt to cast doubt on our climate knowledge. So wondering if you will engage in discussion or if it is a drive by post.)

There are still lots of unknowns. Lots of "mays" and "perhaps". And the effects of volcanic activity "may" well exceed the often cited 2-3 years.

Just came across this study about Antarctic volcanic activity that may have anded glaciation in the southern hemisphere.
https://theconversation.com/two-centuries-of-continuous-volcanic-eruption-may-have-triggered-the-end-of-the-ice-age-83420

And now worries, my intention is not to cast doubt on climate knowledge. I just think its an interesting field of research that requires more attention. Every piece of the puzzle is important. And at the moment we are very far from a complete understanding.

16
Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« on: April 18, 2018, 03:26:05 AM »
I still think we underestimate the influence of volcanoes on our climate. They are completely unpredictable but can have massive impact on our climate.

A few VEI7 or an VEI8 and we can throw all our climate models into the garbage.

Overall, I think the impact of volcanoes on past climate is not very well researched and many unknowns remain.


17
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: April 18, 2018, 03:21:02 AM »
We had less than a day's warning. (Michael Jäger)

Well, why didn't ya tell us earlier, Mr Jäger!

Damn those asteroid deniers!  They won’t take any action until they are 100% sure it will hit, and be bad.

;)

LOL  ;D

18
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: April 18, 2018, 03:19:41 AM »
I always found the disaster movies where we send up rockets to blow up approaching asteroids laughable. We could shoot a more accurate movie but it would be pretty boring.

Scene 1: Announce to the world we're going to all be killed by an asteroid in less than 24 hours.
Scene 2: Everyone running around hysterically.
Scene 3: We all die.

Don't think that would be a boring movie at all. Would provide some fresh air to the genre.

19
Temperature contrast in the US is just incredible. 30C as far north as Pennsylvania and West Virginia and and -5C with severe blizzard conditions around the Great Lakes, Wisconsin, Minnesota etc

20
Science / Re: AMOC slowdown
« on: April 14, 2018, 01:04:25 AM »
Wouldn't the Amoc slowdown effects kick in way before the Earth warms at 4-5C?

4-5C is allot and I think we will have much more serious problems than AMOC slowdown by then.

21
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: April 14, 2018, 12:49:26 AM »
Regarding polar bear numbers, I found this interesting article in NewScientist. Its a bit old so there should be an update by now. Basically, we don't really know for sure how the overall population changes. So more research is required before saying the one or the other.

However, the ones that are declining seem to be negatively affected by declining sea ice. And the ones that are increasing seem to recover from previous hunting pressure.

Quote
[...]
Yet recently there have been claims that polar bear populations are increasing. So what’s going on? There are thought to be between 20,000 and 25,000 polar bears in 19 population groups around the Arctic. While polar bear numbers are increasing in two of these populations, two others are definitely in decline. We don’t really know how the rest of the populations are faring, so the truth is that no one can say for sure how overall numbers are changing.

The two populations that are increasing, both in north-eastern Canada, were severely reduced by hunting in the past and are recovering thanks to the protection they and their prey now enjoy.

The best-studied population, in Canada’s western Hudson Bay, fell by 22% from 1194 animals in 1987 to 935 in 2004, according to the US Fish and Wildlife Service. A second group in the Beaufort Sea, off Alaska’s north coast, is now experiencing the same pattern of reduced adult weights and cub survival as the Hudson Bay group.

A comprehensive review (pdf) by the US Fish and Wildlife Service concluded that shrinking sea ice is the primary cause for the decline seen in these populations, and it recently proposed listing polar bears as threatened (pdf) under the Endangered Species Act. The World Conservation Union projects the bears’ numbers will drop by 30% by 2050 (pdf) due to continued loss of Arctic sea ice.
[...]
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11656-climate-myths-polar-bear-numbers-are-increasing/

22
Germany gets endless sunshine at 25C next week. Not that this hasn't happened before and 30C days are not unheard of, but this year it basically went from March winter to April summer.

Can't really tell how this relates to climate change and sea ice, but it certainly feels "not normal".

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: April 13, 2018, 09:29:16 AM »
Since the turn of the century, the coolest summers have been 2014, 17, and 13, which showed in higher ice minima.
AGW denier daniel likes to hide behind the solar TSI, which has been languid for half a century, & low for 11+ years(including a 3+ year solar TSI low setting a 100 year record). With the 24 hours of sunlight(yet low TSI) on the High Arctic, sure there are cool summers. AGW denier daniel doesn't mention low TSI, which if not for AGW GHG energy increases, could have lead to a continuous decade of low High Arctic summer temperatures.

Can you please explain what you mean? The weak sun is responsible for colder arctic summers?

24
Consequences / Re: Ice-free Arctic
« on: April 07, 2018, 04:59:42 AM »
My assumptions justifying thinking the gulf stream will find its way into the arctic ocean.

1. A BOE will let the stratification of the arctic ocean be disrupted by wave action.

2. when the sun sets and things cool off with the stratification a thing of the past you get bottom water production rather than ice.

3. what drives the currents around Greenland and the CAA currently is the Earth's rotation the warmth coming up from the equator (gulf stream) and the large freshwater input from ice melt and run off.

4. it is the cold reduced salinity run off water plus ocean water surface water current that pushes the gulf stream away from the east coat of north America.

The freshwater mixes with surface water, if that becomes bottom water then the surface water needs to be replaced.  The cold water would sink rather than stay on the surface.  So instead of a current coming out of the arctic ocean past Greenland you would have a current going in instead.

No current pushing the gulf stream east.  So it would go north into the arctic ocean.

With 20C water coming into the arctic basin you could see 20C air temps over the water and storms like there was no tomorrow.

Where would you get those 20C waters from? We hardly ever reach 20C in the North Sea even during those exceptionally hot and sunny summers we had in the 90s. And that's like 2000km south of what is considered arctic ocean.

Just wondering.

25
Science / Re: Solar cycle
« on: April 02, 2018, 03:38:29 AM »
Good on you, Bernard,

I was hoping someone would come along and flatten this distraction at least in the ASIF- a sunspot in a teacup.

But you won't be able to stop it in the wider world. The Trumps, the Moncktons and the Pruitts of this world will seize on anything going the rounds, e.g. ---

<snip, removed link to climate risk denier websites; N.>
That website does seem to have something of an 'Agenda'.
<snip, removed link to climate risk denier websites; N.>

One could go as far as saying it appears to be a FAKE NEWS outlet.

Most website do have something of an 'Agenda.'  Unbiased reporting seems to have gone by the wayside.  Probably best to read many differing views to arrive at the best summary.

If it was only websites. But agenda and bias seems to be creeping into primary scientific research as well. No good times for science IMO.

And the joke we call peer review needs a major overhaul. Best is to only "believe" science of people you know and can trust. Talking to them at conferences an ask revealing questions is one way to go.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 20, 2018, 04:26:15 AM »
The thing is we will now have a myriad of deniers  pointing to the remarkable event of DMI 80 N hitting average!!

Are things so whacked out that 'average' is the new remarkable!

Average compared to 1950 to 2000. We don't have that climate anymore. So yes, its remarkable.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 18, 2018, 09:32:42 PM »
Haven't seen this for a long time. Below average temps across the arctic ocean.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/5day/

1979- 2000 Baseline... Still waaaaay warmer than 1750 pre- industrial (ca + 0,8- 1,4C).

Really hope we won't go back to 1750 baseline. Nobody really needs that in northern hemisphere. That was little ice age in Europe.

That is not his point. The map suggests that temps are just barely below average when compared to a 1979-2000 baseline which means they are actually well above recent historical average. Don't worry about ever going back to 1750 baseline in the next thousand years.

Almost everything will be above average compared to the 1750 baseline. That was one of the coldest periods in the last 5000 years. Using it as a baseline is extremely misleading.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 18, 2018, 01:59:32 PM »
Haven't seen this for a long time. Below average temps across the arctic ocean.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/5day/

1979- 2000 Baseline... Still waaaaay warmer than 1750 pre- industrial (ca + 0,8- 1,4C).

Really hope we won't go back to 1750 baseline. Nobody really needs that in northern hemisphere. That was little ice age in Europe.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 18, 2018, 08:58:02 AM »
Haven't seen this for a long time. Below average temps across the arctic ocean.
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/wx/5day/


30
Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: February 28, 2018, 08:43:40 AM »
Biggest threat to humanity is still an asteroid impact or super volcano with collapse of agriculture.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 25, 2018, 02:59:00 AM »
Is there a reason why the Baltic sea is not included in Arctic sea ice while Okhotsk is?

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 25, 2018, 02:51:35 AM »
Incredible. Arctic descending into chaos. Wonder what the new stable state will be.

33
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: December 02, 2017, 08:18:28 AM »
Monster heatwave melting its ice sheet. sure. Sensationalism at its best.

There is hardly any above freezing temps even along the coast.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_21_5.png

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: November 09, 2017, 10:25:41 PM »
First sea ice forming in Barrow?


35
Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: November 01, 2017, 04:03:59 AM »
Warning to Europe?
Sorry, but death from hurricanes (and climate change) has zero statistical effect on overall health and mortally of a population. Especially in Europe.

The impact of climate on health is so minimal compared to general pollution, pesticides, fast food, smoking and unhealthy lifestyle in general.

36
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: October 24, 2017, 08:13:23 AM »

It is certainly a mistake to look at climate change in a vacuum, but just because there are many problems/stresses (e.g. over-population, resource depletion, pollution, warfare, systemic fragilities etc.) in the world today, doesn't that climate change won't be the 'straw that broke the camel's back'.

Possibly.  However, I think that any of those other causes could accomplish the decline (and eventually extinction) all by themselves.

Your point being?

That climate change will be a minor contributor to extinctions.  Most plants and animals would be able to adapt to climate perturbations much easier that overhunting, pollution, or total habitat destruction.

That's what I think too. No matter where I go, habitats are degraded not because of climate change but because of mechanical and chemical destruction through agriculture. Then add expanding cities and hunting/ fishing and you have the perfect storm for extinctions. 

Without all the human impact, most species would just migrate in the light of a warming climate.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: October 22, 2017, 03:21:07 AM »
Wonder what the mid to long term effects of those repeated freezing (<-5C or even -10C) wind storms are over open arctic waters. This must mix the water and provide substantial cooling to the water column including deeper layers? Isn't this much more effective than the cooling through a 1m thick ice sheet no matter how cold it is over the ice?


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 22, 2017, 12:23:44 AM »
Winterwonderland in Barrow.

Ocean steaming at -17C.



39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 03, 2017, 04:03:46 AM »
OMG what an amazing picture. Had no idea they can come in such numbers. First thought those are sheep.

40
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: September 29, 2017, 01:53:06 AM »
At Freyer glacier (1000m above sea level) in northeast Greenland it is currently raining/wet snow at +1.8C. Will probably turn to snow again at night but anyway.

https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: September 05, 2017, 11:34:57 PM »
Think we have to learn that the downward trend of the last decade may not be representative of the future. Arctic warmed much faster than average. Is this the law? Maybe arctic will now warm at similar rates as global average or even slower? Just some thoughts.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: September 03, 2017, 03:52:52 AM »
Look like it has been snowing:


43
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 29, 2017, 08:24:47 AM »
Buoy 14

Melt ponds start to freeze over?

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 24, 2017, 02:13:23 AM »
According to GFS, the freezing season should start next week in parts of the Canadian archipelago.

Night temperatures of -10C will be expected around Baffin Island.

What is source for -10° temps "around Baffin Island"? Weather forecast for Clyde River, which is at middle of east coast of Baffin, has temps above 0° throughout next nine days, with highs above 10° for some of them.

Thanks for the correction and sorry for the confusion. I mean Ellesmere Island not Baffin. Looked mostly at the station Eureka and the GFS 2m temp forecast from GFS.

Baffin is indeed very far from freezing conditions at this stage. Sorry again.

GFS has backed off now a little but still freezing weather expected from next week. Will be exciting to see the first new ice of the year.


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 23, 2017, 05:14:08 AM »
Isn't that exactly what it looks like, an iceberg?

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 freezing season
« on: August 23, 2017, 05:08:40 AM »
According to GFS, the freezing season should start next week in parts of the Canadian archipelago.

Night temperatures of -10C will be expected around Baffin Island.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: August 21, 2017, 10:58:07 AM »
Is it possible that all the smoke is blocking the sun and so reduces melting in the area?

Some of the buoys webcam pictures look extremely dark and gloomy.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,327.1750.html

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Year-round ice-free Arctic
« on: August 19, 2017, 02:55:20 AM »
@Coffee Drinker:

This is how what we know about Arctic as it is today (and as it was in recent past) is often not applicable when we talk about possibilities of year-round ice-free Arctic ocean. Lots of things will change dramatically, by then. And to be honest, i take pity at my own attempts to imagine how things will look like then; i bet such attempts are very primitive and at best - dramatically incomplete. But i can't help but to try. Because if we don't use even what little knowledge we managed to obtain in order to attempt to imagine the future, then i say there is little point in obtaining knowledge in the 1st place. Right? ;)

Thanks for the coherent reply.

You make good points. I also believe that the future is unpredictable and that there are many important surprises we cant really include in our predictions (super volcano etc).

So I wont exclude the possibility of an ice free arctic. Well of course its possible. Do I believe it will happen? At this stage I have to say no as I think that even an advance of glaciers is more likely than a year around ice free arctic. All it would take is a super volcano eruption or a nuclear winter which I think are possibilities in the longer term.

I talk about believes here as I don't think we have enough knowledge or variable to go beyond believes in this regard.


49
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 19, 2017, 01:28:39 AM »
It's devastating for the local wildlife. Tundra grows very slowly.
I would think it's a normal part of nature there.

Someone must have caused the fire. Maybe some locals camping and not being careful enough. Wouldn't call that natural.

50
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 19, 2017, 01:15:33 AM »
Fryer glacier frost period started a few days ago. Also visible on the webcam is all the snow that seems to have survived the summer and new snow on the surrounding hills.

The webcam is at 870m above sea level.

Quite a contrast to last year:

18/8/2017
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/

25/8/2016
https://www.foto-webcam.eu/webcam/freya1/2016/08/25/1200

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