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Messages - Cook

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Quote from: jdallen on July 29, 2020, 09:06:10 PM
"The short answer is - it's structure and power are indicative of a global system of atmospheric circulation that is broken."

Ok, what is it about it's structure and power that are different from what is seen when the atmospheric circulation is not broken?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 30, 2020, 01:38:24 AM »
The Beaufort low is clearly visible on Worldview today. Unusually clear spiral pattern.
This, is a terrifying image.

It exemplifies just how totally broken atmospheric circulation is in the northern hemisphere.

The import of this on weather in more densely inhabited latitudes is profound.

Would you care to elaborate on that? What is different about this low from other lows and how does it exemplify a broken atmospheric circulation? How is it important for weather in more densely inhabited latitudes.
I very much look forward to your reply since these are important questions that I don't have any answers to. I would appreciate it if you keep your reply simple, on a level that those with basic meteorological knowledge can understand. Thanks in advance.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 08, 2019, 09:42:12 PM »
Look at how much heat Dorian is pushing into the arctic, leaving behind a trail of winter...

Why are you posting pictures of that area? Svalbard is nowhere on that image. Are you confused in your geography?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« on: September 06, 2019, 05:37:21 AM »
The thinnest ice ever for this date! That must be worthy of a headline.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 25, 2019, 09:56:44 PM »
I hope to see a BOE event ASAP because it will help kick humanity into action.

I hope we are mature enough to tackle climate change in a compassionate and productive way. Compassionate in the sense that people who are negatively effected are helped, and productive in the sense that the benefits, yes in spite of all the negatives there are in fact benefits, are recognized and utilized in a way that helps mankind, especially those who may locally lose land and the means to support themselves.

Finally, I pray that we figure out the basic fact that our planet is over populated by human beings and that we have an obligation to future generations to prevent mass extinctions and to protect habitats.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 18, 2019, 11:17:29 PM »
My theory is that Greenlands mass pulls the ice towards it.

I like your theory, it makes a lot of sense.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 21, 2019, 11:03:30 PM »
Thanks, Stephen. The Icelandic on that plaque is not that great. Here is my idea of an improvement:

Ok er fyrsti nafnkunni jökullinn sem missir titil sinn.
Á næstu 200 árum er talið að allir jöklar landsins fari sömu leið.
Þetta minnismerki sýnir að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera.
Þú veist hvað við gerðum.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 25, 2019, 09:56:38 PM »
The last scream of the ice:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 08, 2018, 02:59:16 AM »
Ummm... What surface is that Canadian met surface chart say its measuring? :o

Pressure corrected to the sea level surface.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August mid monthly update)
« on: August 23, 2017, 09:22:45 AM »
Only then, I see people willing to accept the Arctic geoengineering to preserve sea ice.

Apologies for the slight OT, but I need to make this point. People have been accepting geoengineering on an unprecedented scale for more than 100 years now with all the CO2 that people have pumped into the atmosphere. Geoengineering is nothing new and it is widely accepted.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: August 02, 2017, 05:36:21 AM »
I guess this could be called "the cliff".

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 26, 2017, 11:01:48 PM »
While the past freeze season was one for the record books, we have had anomalously warm polar winters for at least a decade. I would be surprised if this is not the case for the next freeze season.

Anything but an anomalously warm winter is almost impossible. The arctic may not be melting out completely, but there certainly has been a regime change with far more open water and more water vapor in the atmosphere than there was 30+ years ago. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, making an anomalously warm winter, compared to the last 30 years pretty much dead certain. I would bet my house on it.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 12:14:53 AM »
Latest webcam image from Barrow shows a bulldozer fixing a breach in the earth sea wall :o

I think they need to get Donald to put his finger in it. In the long term it will do about as much good. I expect that coast will receded quite rapidly in the coming years.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 15, 2017, 10:42:02 PM »
I think I'd rather have the ice all melted and all the energy early open water absorbed being spent before it compounds another miserable year for folk around the hemisphere from WACCy weather?

I suspect that the more ice you remove the more abnormal, waccy if you like weather you will observe.

Less ice = a warmer arctic and a weaker more meandering jet stream. It also means more moisture in the air and more precipitation.

Let us not forget that H2O is a powerful greenhouse gas. Larger open areas of water and warmer temperatures = more humidity and therefore warmer temperatures.

So, if we want weather we are used to, then we should be hoping for more ice and less open water.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 11, 2017, 06:11:29 AM »
Are we sure about the reliability of any data sources?

No, but you just have to work with what you have. I put the greatest faith in satellite images and my own eyeballs.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 08, 2017, 10:56:17 PM »
Waves lapping the shore at Barrow Alaska. Wave erosion is bound to increase as larger areas of open water appear. This in addition to melting "perma"frost may cause rapid coastal erosion.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 27, 2017, 09:19:25 PM »
IMHO, the volume metric still has a good chance of accelerating its decreases again and possibly staying ahead of even 2012's dramatic drop. I'm basing this on the following reasons: a) most of 2017's anomalous thickness, and therefore, its extra volume, is located in that blob near Svalbard, which means it is going to melt out almost completely, (assuming PIOMAS is relatively correct) b) 2017 has a higher proportion of FYI, which is thinner and more saline, with a lower melting temperature, so it has a higher chance of doing that 'poof' thing that we have witnessed so many times on the periphery in previous years,

I agree. In terms of ice that will survive the summer, then the blob near Svalbard that is currently boosting PIOMAS figures is irrelevant. I suspect that during the month of July we will see huge tracts of ice that are here one week and gone the next.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 23, 2017, 01:12:13 AM »
This is something of an old discussion, rain vs. sunshine. From experience I've seen rainstorms melt ice very fast, in spite of low temperatures and not particularly large amounts of rainfall. The strength of the wind seems to be a major factor, probably because the biggest effect comes from condensation of water vapor from the air, and the stronger the wind, the greater amount of humid air can come into contact with a given area of ice.

But this is just a guess - all I can say from experience is that rain storms with strong winds seem to be the most effective way to melt snow and ice during early spring (at around 60N).

"Rain, fog or high humidity really boosts melting because water has a much higher heat capacity than air. Thus conductive and convective heat transfer is far more efficient, than when snow is surrounded by dry air."

And this:

"In the spring, snow cover can melt rapidly if warm, humid air pushes in above the snow and lowers the temperature of this humid air to the point that fog forms. The fog droplets forming at the snow surface release the latent heat of condensation, which helps to melt the snow."

Warm air at near saturation combined with rain will surely melt snow and ice fast. The influx of heat, and winds that are likely to compact the ice and mix warmer waters upward are likely to be quite destructive during the next several days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 22, 2017, 10:54:21 AM »
It is going to be a relatively deep low. I think plus minus 5hPa is a moot point. I think the real issue is that it going to be slow moving and fairly intense over a long time, many days.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 22, 2017, 10:15:43 AM »
Fires in Siberia. Multiple fires north of Lake Baikal. Some soot from these is sure to end up on the ice. It is unusually warm in the area, as the temperature anomaly map shows.

The smoke is getting worse. A huge pall of smoke:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 17, 2017, 09:09:08 PM »
I suppose that "the cyclone" will compact the ice and mix up the waters. I suspect that the next 2 weeks or so will see a rather large drop in ice extent, mostly due to compaction. The ice that is there at the moment seems to lack integrity so strong winds will surely push it around.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 15, 2017, 10:27:03 PM »
Especially disturbing to me is the ESS hole, which is at its greatest extent for this time of year of the last five years, and the amount of energy ESS absorbs during the summer is the quantity most closely related to the severity of the minimum vs. the trend on Tealight's website:

Yes, it is quite disturbing:

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 15, 2017, 12:27:53 PM »
What an amazing graphic, John, thank you for contributing with that.

I think this is a year of unusual deep snow and therefore, due to insulation and warm temperatures, unusually thin ice. The ice is probably more vulnerable to melting from below than from above, at least for the time being. Now that the snow must be melting/sublimating and the ice melting from below in much of the arctic I expect the cliff will be seen sooner rather than later, especially with a slow moving low likely to churn ice around and probably mix warmer saltier waters up.

Uber should be forced by regulators to show how much it is subsidizing rates

I don't quite see how Uber can be subsidizing rates. I believe that they work on the principle that drivers drive for them and a cut of the fare goes to Uber. This should easily cover Uber's costs. If anyone is subsidizing anything it could be the people who are driving for Uber, but they are free to do as they wish.

I feel that taxi drivers and taxi companies are their own worst enemies in many cities, insisting on high fares and tips. This is bad for their business and good for the likes of Uber.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« on: June 03, 2017, 09:55:08 PM »
What I find most noteworthy is that most of the anomalously thick ice finds itself in an area where ice export is strong and there is little chance that any of this thick ice will survive the summer.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 02, 2017, 09:30:56 PM »
Main queston is if the HP has any potential to be a repeat of 2014 "cold" HP that was ice friendly?

I doubt that HP this time of year can possibly be ice friendly. The insolation is just too strong.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 02, 2017, 06:54:12 AM »
I get the feeling that there will not be much thick multi year ice left after this summer. A lot of it looks about to go down the drain. It is stunning to see how fast these vast and seemingly solid sheets of ice fall to pieces.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 31, 2017, 09:32:46 PM »
Looks like the crack has almost made it across the whole of the north of Greenland... the odds on it reaching the Atlantic side in the next day or two must be short!

Looks like it is there:

From 31 May

Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: May 30, 2017, 09:58:28 PM »

I'm really sorry for my posting. It's just that im terrified a  BOE could really destabilise the planet. That and climate change seems to be here already and speeding things up.

I really don't think we have a year left due to abrupt warming and some runaway effects stacking up.

Please, don't be sorry, and don't be terrified. Since you are posting here I assume you have some great things like an education, a computer, food and shelter. Don't take these things for granted. Be thankful for them every day.

Change for the better or worse is inevitable, but we are short changing ourselves if we let that degrade our life in the now.

Let me suggest something like meditation. It can bring things into perspective.

The way I see it, we live in a thrilling time. A time of learning for human beings. We will learn a great deal about ourselves and our planet in the coming decades, and as usual there will be joy and suffering.

Isn't it amazing that we can monitor what is happening in real time and discuss it among ourselves?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 29, 2017, 10:58:55 PM »
My money is on the cliff. The ice pack seems to lack integrity. There has been, and probably will continue to be strong ice export, essentially spreading. The ice that is left appears to be quite homogeneous. It therefore  seems logical to think that much of the ice will melt at a similar rate and therefore disappear around the same time, giving rise to the cliff.

The disintegration north of Greenland looks ominous to say the least. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June)
« on: May 28, 2017, 09:33:12 PM »
what @FOOTW said and additionally the relatively thick and high amount of ice, melting just north of the regions will certainly cool the ocean more than last years much less ice. after all there is a reason why we put ice into our drinks to keep them cool LOL

Melting may not actually result in net cooling, but serve to balance the warming due to insolation and advection. The insolation is very strong at this time of year. Once the ice is gone, look out...

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