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Messages - Sailaway

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Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« on: August 03, 2020, 02:30:08 PM »

Thanks. I suspected something along those lines, but there is a get out of jail at great expense card:


It is almost impossible for a vessel to undertake a NW passage without resupply at some point. Attached link maybe of interest to your various interests but let not drift farther OT,

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« on: August 03, 2020, 04:06:32 AM »
Having performed a quick trawl of the web the earliest commercial cruise planned for the Northwest Passage this summer seems to be Hanseatic Spirit, departing Kangerlussuaq for Anchorage on August 13th

However I have found no reference to a "small vessel" planning for a passage this year. There do seem to be some "pleasure craft" heading North up the west coast of Greenland at present though. Does anybody know any more than that?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Shift in timing of ice minimum over the years
« on: July 20, 2020, 02:33:23 AM »
Great post Ken.
I certainly see drops in September, especially for the last 10-15 years. I would say the timing and shape of the minimum can have an effect of +/-100k km2 on the final outcome. Not huge, but often decisive when years are hard to tell apart. Big impact at ranks 2-5, no impact on #1 (unless this year comes neck and neck with 2012).

The location of the ice that remains in September could hold some unpleasant surprises this year. If we look at extent and volume metrics for the Greenland sea for example. If i remember correctly, July had a higher than average export to the region - but that it would have had a sunnier than average summer holidays prior to its arrival.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:07:17 AM »
I have seen such pieces sticking out and being stood up on the O-Buoy movies (which I've recently linked to again on the buoys thread), after what seemed like floe collisions. However, this does not make the ice stronger, these are small pieces and are prone to falling again, and in addition the part standing outside the water can catch the low sun easily, so I doubt this can make much difference and delay melt-out. I would expect a good defensive process requires very cold and structurally strong ice to succeed, so mid-July compaction would not do much good. On the contrary, I would expect floe edges to break and large floes to split apart during such pressures, so it is quite probable that this process actually speeds melt-out somewhat.
(Caveat - I am just an amateur here, cannot base this on actual science).

I think the situation is far more complex than that. The extension above the surface of the surrounding flows would be matched by a proportional "keel" below the underside of the general level of the ice. There would be a macro effect of increasing the friction resistance to any wind and a below surface in the water. As wind and current are not normally in alignment this would exert additional forces across the ice at local and regional levels. The resulting rotational forces would tend to increase the rate of the mechanic erosion of the ice structures.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 31, 2020, 09:25:10 AM »
Bush fire activity has increased today with 40+ temps and some wind. Tomorrow  will see higher overnight temps and wind averages up from today. The worst case scenario for tomorrow would see the ACT fire spread and join up with the existing coastal fire. (I don't think it will be that bad) Spot fire of 10ha have already started from the embers at least 5 km from the main front - some of the spot fired have already integrated with the main fire. Spent the day listening to the fire fighter talking on the emergency services channels!!

Sunday may give us a few mm of rain from thunderstorms so there is little help and a high risk of new fires from dry strikes. Winds will clock over the following days with the potential to drive the fires inland and potentially join up with the fires in the Snowy Mountains. That country is rugged and fires can only really be fought from the air. Every 10 degree increase in gradient doubles the potential fire speed. Not good at all.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 29, 2020, 05:07:11 PM »

I have no idea who owns the Canberra Times.  Time to make a list of reliable media vs. Murdoch propaganda outlets.
Channel Nine Australia - definitely right-wing.
- was a reliable Climate Change Denier - not sure where it stands now.
- was picked up on repeating dumb theories about cause of Aussie Bushfires, e.g. Arson.

Sorry it was sold last year by Channel Nine!!!!!
 And it is not owned by Murdock, Packer ....

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 29, 2020, 10:30:32 AM »
It’s not over.

Martin Ollman (@martin_o) 1/28/20, 5:36 AM
RAW timelapse footage of the last few hours - Orroral Valley fire -Out of control #canberra #australia #AustraliaBurning #AustralianFires
2 minutes of timelapse footage at the link.

The fire was started by the landing lights of a helicopter!!

The fire shown in the video is (according to ACT Emergency Services) spot fire 5 km ahead of the main fire front. The fire front is about 8km from the southern suburbs and about 13 km from my house. The problem is that if the fire comes out of the trees it can burn across grassland at about 17 km per hour.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 23, 2020, 04:09:46 AM »
Meanwhile as arguments continue there is a small (171ha) fire burning out of control a couple of miles from Parliament House. Every thing that been thrown at this fire within minuets due to the proximity of the airport, military assets and housing. Mind you another 5 of the fires have returned to Emergency warning levels as they are out of control.

Nero where are you?

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 10, 2020, 08:25:53 AM »

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 03, 2020, 02:47:55 PM »
Today Canberra had improved air quality - only 11 times safe levels. That's an improvement on the 23 times levels of the other day. The fire forecast for tomorrow is horrendous but as the authorities have admitted the models are broken with the fire grounds creating their own weather. Fire has already jumped the Clyde river near Batesmans Bay 24 hours earlier than predicted.

I think the smoke that I have tasted for weeks maybe just a relativity benign taste of our future.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 30, 2019, 03:54:57 PM »
Woah, you and your eagle eyes, Jay!  :D

This GIF shows yesterdays last frame (20:42h UTC) vs. latest frame (04:18h UTC, M10).

I think Second is directly below this hole in the clouds which would mean it moved a lot since it came loose.

Any correlation with tides?

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: May 25, 2019, 11:52:01 AM »
Just for clarification are we talking about Metric or Imperial Smidgeon


Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: April 18, 2019, 12:27:19 PM »
The way to calculate the high of a tide at any given point uses the "Rule of 12th.

The rule states that over the first period the quantity increases by 1/12. Then in the second period by 2/12, in the third by 3/12, in the fourth by 3/12, fifth by 2/12 and at the end of the sixth period reaches its maximum with an increase of 1/12. The steps are 1:2:3:3:2:1 giving a total change of 12/12. Over the next six intervals the quantity reduces in a similar manner by 1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 1 twelfths.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 18, 2018, 10:00:21 AM »
Any chance of leaving one thread for data. It is getting a little to much marching through "snow drifts" on every thread. Thanks

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 Melting Season - Predictions and Speculation
« on: April 12, 2018, 06:12:33 AM »
They open without any issue for me in chrome. Maybe you settings>

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: March 08, 2018, 11:15:32 AM »
For those who are familiar with only the SI-system of measurenment, nm means, not only the nanometer, but also nautical mile.
Not true! nm is only the nanometer. NM or nmi is nautical mile. In SI the capitalization of each letter plays crucial role, like for example mW is far from MW, like kWh is kilowatthour and kWH would be kilowatt-henry, and like Nm is newton meter, nm is nanometer and NM is nautical mile.

You can be wrong even if you are right. In this case it refers to Nautical Miles.

The forecast came from and is for the use of mariners and others. Happy that i could assist you.  :D

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: March 07, 2018, 10:39:03 AM »
If Trump goes ahead with his trade wars and it spirals out of control other countries may move away from the US$ as a reserve currency. The end to the "free loans" enjoyed by the US would lead to higher interest rates. Prices would rapidly rise. .... Political unrest?

The USA has lower foreign reserves than say Indonesia. It is not in a great position to play games with its largest shareholder = China.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2017 melt season
« on: August 10, 2017, 02:42:16 AM »
Having seen peat fires in the Lincolnshire Fens burn for 3 years until they burn 14 ft down to the water table (lower than sea level due to drainage) I would be worried. The saving factor in Greenland may be a higher water content in the peat.

This book looks interesting

The adjustments from the removal of thick ice from the land takes 1000's of years. For example parts of the UK are still rising from that effect. The shorter term effects of climate change on land forms are more likely to be associate with the loss of the permafrost with associated land slips. In this case there was a small quake in the region which may have acted in combination. The "Tsunami" in the thread was (in geological term) small and localized - in human terms far greater.

Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: June 22, 2017, 12:05:07 PM »
SRI Method (System of Rice Intensification) is already in use in parts of India and many other countries. This system reduces the consumption of water in rice production, increases yields and significantly reduces methane emissions. I came across it trying to help a Thai family whom i am closely associated with ;D

I don't know why it is not more widely promoted - maybe because the family now produces more rice on less land, does not buy fertilizer, reduced pesticide use by 95% and they use traditional seed from last years crop - vested interest maybe?  >:(   

What is nice is that some of the neighbors are using the SRI method now. Whats not so good is that the frogs are back - and on the menu :'(

A good start point

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