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Messages - Ktb

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1
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: January 15, 2020, 12:58:39 PM »
Quote
Much of the debate surrounding the human-induced biodiversity crisis has focused on vertebrates3, but population declines and extinctions may be even more substantial in small organisms such as terrestrial arthropods4. Recent studies have reported declines in the biomass of flying insects2, and in the diversity of insect pollinators5,6, butterflies and moths1,7,8,9,10, hemipterans11,12 and beetles7,13,14. Owing to the associated negative effects on food webs15, ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services16, this insect loss has spurred an intense public debate. However, time-series data relating to arthropods are limited, and studies have so far focused on a small range of taxa11,13,14, a few types of land use and habitat12—or even on single sites1,17. In addition, many studies lack species information2 or high temporal resolution2,12. It therefore remains unclear whether reported declines in arthropods are a general phenomenon that is driven by similar mechanisms across land-use types, taxa and functional groups.

The reported declines are suspected to be caused mainly by human land use2. Locally, farming practices can affect arthropods directly by application of insecticides18,19, mowing20 or soil disturbance, or indirectly via changes in plant communities through the application of herbicides or fertilizer21. Forestry practices can also affect local arthropod communities via changes in tree species composition or forest structure22. In addition, local arthropod populations can be affected by land use in the surrounding landscape; for example, through the drift and transport of pesticides and nitrogen by air or water23,24, through the effects of habitat loss on meta-communities (source–sink dynamics25) or by hampering dispersal.

To disentangle the local and landscape-level effects of land use on temporal trends in arthropod communities of grasslands and forests, we used data from the ‘Biodiversity Exploratories’ research programme that pertain to more than 1 million individual arthropods (2,675 species) (Extended Data Table 1). Arthropods were collected annually at 150 grassland sites by standardized sweep-net sampling in June and August from 2008 to 2017, and at 30 forest sites with flight-interception traps over the whole growing period from 2008 to 2016. An additional 110 forest sites were sampled in 2008, 2011 and 2014 to test for trends across a larger number of sites. Both the grassland and the forest sites cover gradients in local land-use intensity. Land-use intensity was quantified in the form of compound indices that are based on grazing, mowing and fertilization intensity in grasslands26, and on recent biomass removal, the proportion of non-natural tree species and deadwood origin in forests27. To analyse landscape-level effects, we quantified the cover of arable fields, grassland and forest in circles, with a radius between 250 m and 2 km, around each sampling site. We modelled temporal trends in arthropod biomass (estimated from body size; Methods), abundance and the number of species separately for grasslands and forests, and tested for the effects of local and landscape-scale land-use intensity on these trends, accounting for weather conditions. Analyses were conducted for all species together, and for different dispersal and trophic guilds.

The total number of arthropod species across all sites (gamma diversity) was substantially lower in later than in earlier years in both forests and grasslands (Fig. 1). Gamma diversity, biomass, abundance and number of species fluctuated over time but revealed an overall decrease with strongest declines from 2008 to 2010, especially in grasslands (Fig. 1). Year-to-year fluctuations in arthropod biomass, abundance and number of species were partially explained by weather conditions (Extended Data Fig. 1, Supplementary Table 1-1, Supplementary Information section 2). Accounting for weather, fitted trends from our models showed declines in biomass of 67% for grasslands and 41% for forests, declines in species numbers of 34% for grasslands and 36% for forests, and declines in abundance of 78% for grasslands, with no significant change in abundances for forests (−17%) (Fig. 1, Supplementary Table 3-1). In grasslands, declines occurred consistently across all trophic guilds (herbivores, myceto-detritivores, omnivores and carnivores), although the trend for carnivores was not significant (Supplementary Table 1-1). In forests, the patterns were more complex: herbivores showed an increase in abundance and species number, whereas all other trophic guilds declined. Temporal trends of arthropods on the basis of data recorded in 3-year intervals from all 140 forest sites were similar to the trends based on the 30 sites with annual data (Supplementary Table 1-1). Sensitivity analyses that removed or reshuffled years showed that the decline was influenced by, but not solely dependent on, high numbers of arthropods in 2008. Fluctuations in numbers (including the numbers from 2008) appear to match trends that have been observed in other studies2, which suggests that the recent decline is part of a longer-term trend that had begun by at least the early 1990s (Extended Data Fig. 2, Supplementary Information section 3). Further sensitivity analyses showed consistent declines when data from individual sampling dates were not aggregated per year, and also showed that declines concerned all three regions that we analysed (Supplementary Tables 3-2, 3-3, Supplementary Fig. 3-1).

Fig. 1: Temporal trends in arthropod communities.
figure1
a–d, Gamma diversity (total number of species across all grassland or forest sites) (a), biomass (b), abundance (c) and number of species (d) of arthropods were recorded in 30 forest and 150 grassland sites across Germany. Gamma diversity shows mean incidence-based, bias-corrected diversity estimates (Chao’s BSS, that is, the higher value of the minimum doubled reference sample size and the maximum reference sample size among years29) for q = 0 and 95% confidence intervals derived from bootstrapping (n = 200). Non-overlapping confidence intervals indicate significant difference30. Box plots show raw data per site and year (n = 1,406 (grassland) or 266 (forest) independent samples). Solid lines indicate significant temporal trends (P < 0.05) based on linear mixed models that included weather conditions, and local and landscape-level land-use intensity as covariates. Shaded areas represent confidence intervals. Boxes represent data within the 25th and 75th percentile, black lines show medians, and whiskers show 1.5× the interquartile range. Data points beyond that range (outliers) are not shown for graphical reasons. Plots for biomass and species number have separate y axes for grassland and forest.

Full size image
Linking changes in biomass, abundance and the number of species to one another enables further inferences regarding the mechanisms that drive arthropod declines. In grasslands, both abundant and less-abundant species declined in abundance (Fig. 2), but loss in the number of species occurred mostly among less-frequent species (Fig. 1, Extended Data Fig. 3, Supplementary Information section 4). This suggests that the decline in the number of species in grasslands was attributable mainly to a loss of individuals among rare species. In forests, species that were initially less abundant decreased in abundance, whereas some of the most abundant species—including invasive species and potential pest species—increased in abundance (Fig. 2, Supplementary Table 5-1). The loss of species was, however, irrespective of their frequency (Fig. 1, Extended Data Fig. 3, Supplementary Information section 4). This suggests that the decline of arthropods in forests is driven by mechanisms that negatively affect the abundances of many species, which leads to an overall decline in biomass and the number of species but favours some species that are able to compensate declines in abundance.

Fig. 2: Changes in the dominance of species.
figure2
Rank abundance curves of arthropod communities for the first two (2008–2009) and final two (2016–2017 for grasslands and 2015–2016 for forests) years of the study, from 150 grassland and 30 forest sites. The insets show enlarged curves for the 30 most-abundant species. Data from the first two and final two study years were pooled (abundances are the total number of individuals of a species observed over two years). Declines in abundance are highlighted by yellow shading, and increases in abundance are shaded in green. The y axes are log-scaled, but show untransformed values.

Full size image
The magnitudes of declines in biomass, abundance and the number of species in arthropod communities were independent of local land-use intensity (Supplementary Table 1-1) as well as changes in plant communities (Supplementary Information section 6) at all sites. However, in forests declines in the number of species were weaker at sites with high natural or anthropogenic tree mortality, possibly owing to increased heterogeneity in local habitats (Extended Data Fig. 4). Landscape composition had no effect on arthropod trends in forests (note that forest sites covered only limited gradients of the landscape variables, Extended Data Fig. 5), but it mediated declines in the number of species in grasslands: the magnitude of the declines increased with increasing cover of arable fields, and marginally increased with cover of grasslands in the surrounding landscape (Fig. 3, Supplementary Table 1-1). This suggests that major drivers of arthropod decline in grasslands are associated with agricultural land use at the landscape scale.

Fig. 3: Landscape effects on arthropod decline in grasslands.
figure3
a, Temporal changes in biomass, abundance and the number of species for all arthropod species. b, c, Temporal change in biomass of species with high (b) or low (c) dispersal ability, conditional on the cover of arable fields in the surrounding landscape (1-km radius). The decline in biomass increased significantly with the cover of arable fields for weak dispersers, but not for strong dispersers. Slopes were derived from models that included weather conditions and local land-use intensity as covariates. The y axes are log-scaled, but show untransformed values.

Full size image
The interaction between a species and the landscape around its habitat depends on its dispersal ability, which ultimately determines its occurrence and persistence28. In grasslands, taxa of high and low dispersal ability (Methods) both declined, but an increasing cover of arable fields—although not of grasslands—in the surroundings amplified declines in the biomass of weak dispersers more strongly than it did declines of strong dispersers (Fig. 3, Supplementary Table 7-1). Weak dispersers may experience higher mortality during dispersal, and thus have a lower chance of (re)colonization of a particular site when arable field cover is high. In forests, strong dispersers declined in biomass, abundance and the number of species, whereas weak dispersers increased in abundance and biomass—but less strongly when grassland cover in the landscape was high (Supplementary Table 7-1). This suggests that the drivers behind arthropod declines in forests also act at landscape-level spatial scales.

We showed that arthropods declined markedly not only in biomass but also in abundance and the number of species, and that this affected taxa of most trophic levels in both grasslands and forests. Declines in gamma diversity suggest that species might disappear across regions. Our results also indicate that the major drivers of arthropod decline in both habitat types act at landscape-level spatial scales, but that declines may be moderated by increases in heterogeneity of local habitats in forests. Although the drivers of arthropod decline in forests remain unclear, in grasslands these drivers are associated with the proportion of agricultural land in the landscape. However, we cannot ascertain whether the observed declines are driven by the legacy effects of historical land-use intensification or by recent agricultural intensification at the landscape level; for example, by the decrease of fallow land and field margins rich in plant species, the increased use of pesticides or use of more potent insecticides (Supplementary Information section 3). Time-series data relating to changes in the use of agrochemicals or the presence of fine-scale arthropod habitats would be necessary to answer this question. Furthermore, the extents to which changes in climate have reinforced the observed trends in arthropod biomass, abundance and number of species is unclear (Supplementary Information section 2). Our results show that widespread arthropod declines have occurred in recent years. Although declines were less pronounced during the second half of our study period, there is no indication that negative trends have been reversed by measures that have been implemented in recent years. This calls for a paradigm shift in land-use policy at national and international levels to counteract species decline in open and forested habitats by implementing measures that are coordinated across landscapes and regions. Such strategies should aim to improve habitat quality for arthropods and to mitigate the negative effects of land-use practices not only at a local scale (within isolated patches embedded in an inhospitable agricultural matrix) but also across large and continuous areas.

2
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: January 15, 2020, 12:49:50 PM »
In 30 forest sites with annual inventories, biomass and species number—but not abundance—decreased by 41% and 36%, respectively.

So over a third of the species are lost while abundance remains the same.
I wonder if they have a breakdown of species in the article.

I take it they only measured biomass in regards to decline.

"We showed that arthropods declined markedly not only in biomass but also in abundance and the number of species, and that this affected taxa of most trophic levels in both grasslands and forests." - Siebold et al 2019.

No they split it in three categories but sadly it is paywalled.

The difference between the forests and grasslands is interesting and i would like to see tables with a breakdown for both.

I have access to the paper. What would you both like to see?

3
Debate winners: Bernie, Steyer.

Debate Meh: Biden, Klobuchar, Pete.

Debate losers: the moderators. What the fuck was that? Warren didn't look very good for her refusal to dismiss the bullshit claim about Bernie and sexism.

20 days until Iowa. Feel the Bern.

4
Hopefully Sanders is able to capitalize on his recent polling surge in the upcoming debate.

5
Bernie Sanders: I will not have a Republican as vice president

Link >> https://news.yahoo.com/bernie-sanders-not-republican-vice-220357500.html

Sigh. What an easy win.

6
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 28, 2019, 02:16:13 AM »
It boils down to what you can swallow.

If my options are the right, the far right, or 3rd party, than I’m going 3rd party.

If my options are center/center left, the far right, or 3rd party, than I will be going center/center left.

7
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 27, 2019, 12:28:40 PM »
Per capita, the US is still the worst polluter by far!

Simply not true. Tiny countries with high standards of living are much worse per capita. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita

8
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 27, 2019, 10:26:03 AM »
The only reason I would vote 3rd party is if Gabbard gets the nomination. She’s on the right politically. Trump is far right.

But centrist/corporate Democrats are also on the right politically, because they serve their donors and not the American people. So, why would you vote for that? Any Blue won't do, when it isn't really Blue. Haven't the right-wing Clinton and Obama presidencies taught people anything? Identity politics doesn't make you left-wing, it's the economic policies. When these serve concentrated wealth, they are right-wing. Leftism has ceased to exist in the USA after Jimmy Carter. Only Sanders can bring it back.

Idk how many times I have to say this. I AM VOTING FOR SANDERS ffs. That being said, if he does not win the nomination I will begrudgingly support whoever comes up next.

9
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 27, 2019, 08:07:07 AM »
Ktb, i'm the biggest supporter of a multi-party system for the US and i despise Tulsi just like you, but this is not the time to vote third party. Period.

Imagine more people would do it like this and Trump wins again because of it. This means more right-wing supreme court judges (at least one) who then turn the country right for the next 40 years. You would have a full stop on anything progressive. The stakes are too high.

The only reason I would vote 3rd party is if Gabbard gets the nomination. She’s on the right politically. Trump is far right.

10
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 26, 2019, 11:43:23 PM »
I would rather have a centrist, status quo democrat than a right wing talking head.

That's how you get Trump. Why would you want that?


No obviously not. I'm voting for Sanders. But in the event where it is a centrist, status quo democrat or Trump, I'll be voting for the dem. In the event it is Tulsi (a literal right winger posing as a dem) or Trump, i'll be voting 3rd party.

11
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 26, 2019, 08:53:51 AM »
I cannot figure out who the dems that like Tulsi Gabbard are. Or why. She is not a good person.

But she's still better than Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, Booker, Harris, Bloomberg, and all the others from the Wine Cave crew. What does that say about them?

I would rather have a centrist, status quo democrat than a right wing talking head.

12
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 25, 2019, 12:13:49 PM »
When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.

- Maya Angelou


I cannot figure out who the dems that like Tulsi Gabbard are. Or why. She is not a good person.

13
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 20, 2019, 06:53:03 AM »
Bernie and Yang were the winners of the 6th debate.

Klobuchar, Biden, Warren, and Steyer held their own.

Buttigieg was the clear loser tonight. Finally getting flak on his fundraising among other things.

The clown of the debate was Sarah Huckabee-Sanders for trying to make fun of Joe Biden for having a stutter. https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1207885405850361856
She has since deleted her tweet. But as we all know, everything on the internet lives forever.

14
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: December 19, 2019, 12:47:47 PM »
Think:  the average for the Australian continent (OK, including 'cool' Tasmania [ave ~20-21C]) was 40.9ºC (105.6ºF).  Large swaths of central and southern Australia (per map at the linked article) had averages over 45ºC

Distinctions must be made -- Average maximum temperature.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 19, 2019, 12:42:01 PM »
Amazing seeing 2017, 2010, 2019, & 2018 threading the needle today.

16
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: November 21, 2019, 12:17:23 PM »
The fifth dem debate has finished.

Watching Tulsi and Pete go back and forth was something. Watching Booker roast Biden over marijuana was hilarious.

Steyer and Yang both made some good points, points that should be considered by Bernie.

17
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: November 19, 2019, 11:07:07 AM »
I am sure it has been posted before, but making abortion illegal DOES NOT stop abortion. It makes abortion dangerous. Because it will still occur. Except now it will be by coat hangers, baseball bats, and assorted liquids purchased over the internet, instead of by medical professionals.

If people truly wanted to stop/decrease abortion, the way to go about it is better sex education and free, unlimited prophylaxis (condoms, the pill, IUD).

18
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: November 17, 2019, 11:28:31 AM »
B_lumenkraft is not a Democrat, or a liberal. He is an angry, illiterate socialist whose only goal is chaos and misery for all. Because he is an angry, sad human being, everyone else should also be angry and sad. The same can be said for the majority of the far-left Democrats.

This is very sad. But what can I do about it? Educating them won't change anything because they cannot be educated, they are clinically stupid. So I suppose I will simply ignore them. Let them froth and rage. But do not be mistaken -- these people are the very reason Trump was elected, whether they voted for him, or not. They feed on anger, it is their only sustenance. And that is why they would not vote for a dyed-in-the-wool centrist who could restore the policies of the Obama and Clinton eras over Donald Trump. Because they actually don't even dislike Trump. They love him. They love to hate! It is sick. Truly, disgustingly, sick.

Before I say this, I read and enjoy a lot of Bbr's posts in other parts of this forum.

That being said: Nice ad hominem attack. Fuck you and your diatribe.

19
I change my vote to Bloomberg

"You know who is disenfranchised and needs more power? The 14th wealthiest person alive today!"

20
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: November 12, 2019, 11:27:09 AM »
I'm really surprised that Harris imploded as she did.

Any theories on that?

Whether or not you believe her is one thing, but when she laughed and made jokes about smoking weed in college while doing PR on a radio show AND THEN put people in jail for small amounts of marijuana just showed how disingenuous she really was. I found that disgusting.

21
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: November 05, 2019, 02:43:17 PM »
I'll support which ever dem gets the nom, but i'll be holding back tears and frustration if it isn't bernie

22
The rest / Re: Climate, Agriculture and Other Pertinent Documentaries
« on: November 01, 2019, 04:39:16 AM »


Zach Labe gives a talk. Melting Ice: Context, Causes, and Consequences of Polar Amplification.

23
The rest / Re: Cli Fi
« on: October 17, 2019, 04:16:36 PM »
Just finished Naomi Oreskes’ The Collapse of Western Civilization. More of a short story. Interesting nonetheless.

24
The forum / Re: ASIF Statistics
« on: September 23, 2019, 05:24:12 AM »
Does this count as statistics? I'm not sure, but I was bored and procrastinating work so here it is anyway:

How long will it take Tom_Mazanec to surpass AbruptSLR as the forums top poster?

A mere 60 years and 276 days

25
Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: September 21, 2019, 02:36:00 PM »
Glad everybody enjoyed the read. The presentation was fantastic. Excellent speaker.

26
The rest / Re: Climate, Agriculture and Other Pertinent Documentaries
« on: September 18, 2019, 03:13:50 AM »
Apparently Peter Wadhams is getting a documentary made about him.

From the Ice Itself

https://fromtheiceitself.com/


27
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: September 16, 2019, 03:03:23 AM »
Here is why we will never reduce CO2 in time: I present the prisoner's dilemma. A classic game.

We have a multi person prisoner's dilemma in which any individual is pitted against the entire rest of the world. This prisoner's dilemma would hold true for the vast majority of people, i.e. if you replaced individual A with individual B from the "everybody else" section, this would still be true.

We look at the individual's preference ranking.

1st choice - Individual makes no, or minimal lifestyle changes. Individual does not attempt to reduce CO2 output. Individual makes no significant sacrifices. CO2 still reduced enough by rest of the world to avoid major consequences of CC.

2nd choice - Individual makes lifestyle changes to reduce CO2. Some lifestyle changes may cause discomfort. CO2 production by everybody else also decreases enough to avoid major consequences of CC.

3rd choice - Individual makes no, or minimal lifestyle changes. Individual does not attempt to reduce CO2 output. Individual makes no significant sacrifices. The rest of the world also does not reduce CO2 output. Climate change has severe and widespread impacts.

4th choice - Individual makes lifestyle changes to reduce CO2. Some lifestyle changes may cause discomfort. CO2 production by everybody else does not decrease by enough to avoid major consequences of climate change. Individual feels that he/she was played for a fool, made sacrifices for no reason.

Unfortunately, the dominant strategy here is for the individual to make no lifestyle changes. And indeed, we see that playing out with the vast majority of the general populace.

28
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: September 12, 2019, 06:06:10 AM »
And KTB, are you saying it's a joke because we won't get there or because that isn't fast enough, or what?

And ktb implies that the governments that agree to zero by 2050 are pulling our leg, jerking us around, or maliciously baiting the public with promises they never will keep.

Mostly that net zero by 2050 is decades too late. And even if it was not too late, we probably will not achieve that goal anyway.

29
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: September 11, 2019, 06:09:14 AM »
"We need to approach zero net emissions, globally, in the next three decades."

Transl.:  We have 30 more years to dick around.

Net zero by 2050 is a joke.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 11, 2019, 02:24:25 AM »
What's the official minimum then?

Currently, according to JAXA data, it is 4,158,349 km^2. Achieved on September 4th.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 05, 2019, 01:56:10 PM »
SST anomalies continued to climb and expand.

The coloring being used in the Bering is nothing short of spectacular. I do not remember seeing it being used before.

32
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 05, 2019, 05:10:45 AM »
Quote
The President of the United States altered a National Hurricane Center map with a sharpie to falsely extend the official forecast toward Alabama so he didn't have to admit he was wrong in a tweet.

It is a violation of federal law to falsify a National Weather Service forecast and pass it off as official, as President Trump did here.

18 U.S. Code § 2074

https://twitter.com/wxdam/status/1169309514669199361

Truly breathtaking to watch this man work.

33
Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: September 05, 2019, 01:31:42 AM »

Did the question about a possible spike in warming from reduced aerosols with the reduction in fossil fuel burning come up?  If so, what was the answer?

Yes, I actually asked about Hansen et al.'s 2013 paper on aerosol masking, and the effect that immediately stopping production of sulfates via oil/coal/etc. Dr. Haywood said he respected Dr. Hansen, but believed that the warming effect would not be as great or as rapid as Hansen described. Additionally, Dr. Haywood said that sulfates would be replaced with other aerosols that occur naturally, the names of which escape me.

34
Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: September 04, 2019, 04:44:28 PM »
Having a million difficulties trying to upload the presentation as a PDF.

I tried to take detailed notes, and stuck around for the Q&A. I may be able to answer some basic questions if anybody has any.

35
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 02, 2019, 09:24:56 AM »
That eye-wall is absolutely breathtaking

36
Science / Re: The Science of Aerosols
« on: August 26, 2019, 01:12:38 PM »
Got to hear Dr. Jim Haywood from Exeter University and the Met Office speak today about Aerosol masking, clouds, and possible future geoengineering. He agreed to provide me his powerpoint presentation. I will try to upload it here when I obtain it.

Edit: Jim** Haywood

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 08:11:20 AM »
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.


Humanity is a plague. A failed experiment.

38
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 18, 2019, 02:27:27 PM »
And there are not many places to hide in NZ either.

Actually, New Zealand has the best trail hiking system I have ever encountered, with huts with beds and fireplaces, long drop toilets and more. I hiked out to a hut that nobody had been to for more than 6 years.

New Zealand has millions of places to hide out.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 16, 2019, 05:58:00 AM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation

August 15th extent was 4,734,585 km^2. With on average just 29 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -128,779 km^2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss thus far in August 2019 was -1,221,266 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -9,536,536 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -61,132 km^2. If the month of August ended today, this would be the 2nd fastest rate of melt for the same period for the years 2007-2019. (See Attachment 2). 
Additionally, if the melt season ended today, -61,132 km^2 would place 2019 as 1st out of 13 for the years 2007-2019.

Looking only at the month of August thus far, we have averaged -81,418 km^2 per day. If the month of August ended today, this average daily drop places August 2019 as 2nd out of 13 (2007-2019) in average daily August melt. (See Attachment 3).

40
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 12, 2019, 09:14:48 AM »
Almost a decade ago I was taking an intro physics course. We were assigned a paper on energy production and what should humanity do to power the world.

I wrote a very dry paper on how humanity needs to shift from fossil fuels to nuclear, solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, etc.

Once my teacher had graded them all, he announced that ZERO students had written about simply reducing energy consumption. That has stuck with me for 9 years. And it is still relevant today.

We built the dam, then we engineer a crazy fish shuttle and hire people to push fish through the entrance all day. All we actually had to do was not build the dam.

I think we have really forgotten the lesson that sometimes less is more. We create the problem, solve the problem in an absolutely insane way, and declare victory. But we had already won and been winning for thousands of years before the dam was built.

41
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: August 12, 2019, 04:50:02 AM »
A hyperloop for fish. ;) And it can cull out invasive species.

Whooshh Innovations' "Salmon Cannon" Gives Fish A Boost Over Dams
1-minute video.



In reality, all we need to do is not build the dam.

42
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: August 09, 2019, 05:21:22 AM »
I would say we have already eaten the planet, and now we are scrounging for any remaining scraps

43
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 06, 2019, 12:28:12 AM »
Has anybody considered that even if everybody survived collapse, within 3 months about ~10% of the US adult population would be dead from lack of insulin. Stockpile now!

Not to mention all the other health conditions that would suddenly go untreated.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2019, 01:35:31 PM »
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from August 1 to their respective minimums. From this point until the end of the melt season, only 3 years since 2007 have maintained greater than -60,000 km^2/day losses. (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From August 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 4th highest value, of which 2018 is the leader. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st. (See attachment 2).

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 01, 2019, 01:30:33 PM »
Semimonthly BOE evaluation

July 31 extent was 5,955,851 km^2. With on average 44 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -112,633 km^2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss in July 2019 was -3,080,630 km^2. And total extent loss so far this season is -8,315,270 km^2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -58,974 km^2. For the period from maximum to July 31st, this is the 3rd fastest rate of melt for the same period for the years 2007-2019. Barely squeaking in behind 2012, and lagging well behind 2010. (See Attachment 2). 
Additionally, if the melt season ended today, -58,974 km^2 would place 2019 as 3rd out of 13 for the years 2007-2019, once again behind 2010, with 2012 in first place.

Looking only at the month of July, we have averaged -99,375 km^2 per day. This average daily drop places July 2019 as 2nd out of 13 (2007-2019) in average daily July melt. We needed a drop larger than 58k today to maintain 1st place in this category. (See Attachment 3).

46
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: July 31, 2019, 06:35:39 PM »
Currently putting the finishing touches on an essay regarding the vaquita. Extending trend lines, it has until 2030. But in actuality, 2020-2021 is my bet for extinction.

The IUCN, CIRVA, and CITES have all made their recommendations. Even the IWC weighed in here. The US, Mexican, and Chinese governments have attempted to halt trading of the totoaba to prevent gillnet use. The captive breeding program - VaquitaCPR - has failed.

This cetacean is going to follow the baiji into the stars.

47
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 28, 2019, 07:32:59 AM »
GRACE-FO is producing new mass loss data that I can read. Also posted on what's new.

We will get a much better handle on what's going on from now on.

Best news I've heard in quite a while!!!

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 24, 2019, 04:20:00 PM »
Another gain on Slater today, appears to be that their model predicts the first August minimum rather than a September minimum.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 24, 2019, 06:45:39 AM »
JAXA redirecting to their twitter page again today.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 23, 2019, 03:09:22 AM »

Slater's 50 Day Lead projects 2019 to be the new low by a good margin. Interesting how quickly things can change.

No it doesn't

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