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Messages - Gary H

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 24, 2018, 09:49:28 PM »
Beginning the analysis in 1979 is cherry picking. Why did we stop discussing the decades long increasing trend - leading up to 1979 - in Arctic sea ice extent? Noting that there's been a flat trend here for a decade is simply interesting in the moment. Does it perhaps suggest that we could be ending one cycle and beginning another? Also interesting that the Arctic sea ice volume is rather interesting in the moment.

One can toggle back - I just put May 23, 2008 side by side with yesterday's ice thickness - interesting.

 Graph was in the 1990 IPCC report. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: May 24, 2018, 08:41:45 PM »
Will the rather flat trend for the Sept min sea ice extent of the last decade, continue in 2018?

I'd expect, that in start's and stops (as for the past century) I'd expect pretty much that to be the case, as long as GT's remain at the current level. Don't really need any additional GW, as we're warmer now than 150-200 yrs ago.  Not to sure what the 'unstable' implies -- Earth's climate doesn't invite long term stability; never has.

Perhaps - perhaps not. Insignificant, in any event.  Study the other dates, on the graphic, for more eye work.

Besides - generally speaking, why would not one expect that the general trend would be downward, during  hundreds of years of GW? One knows that in the 350-450 yrs preceding that, the general trend was going the other way.

As I noted above - curious that the terminus is back top approx where it was in 2005.

Here's an interesting look (from 2008, I believe) at a bit more history here.  A good bit of advance and retreat since 1933. If I'm seeing the picture here correctly, the June 15th terminus appears quite similar to that in 2005.

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