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Messages - Alexander555

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 02:35:44 PM »
If you take the water north of Greenland, and i hope it's not a stupid question. The top layer, let's say the first meter. Is that colder or warmer than meltwater from Greenland ?

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: Today at 09:11:12 AM »
Iran has much bigger oil reserves than Russia. With the right investments they can replace Saudi-Arabia as the biggest producer in the region. What do you think Iran has been doing in Yemen all the time ? And for the moment there is much to much oil. Iraq and Lybia are running at full speed, the US has become the biggest producer. Irans production went from 4 million to 2,2 million barrels a day, and the oil price only went down. China keeps adding millions of barrels to its strategic reserves, that's only possible if there is to much oil. There is a big player to much for the moment.

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: Today at 04:05:42 AM »
I think Iran will try to replace Saudi-Arabia as the dominant oil player in the region.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Freezing Season For Dummies
« on: September 15, 2019, 05:53:02 PM »
Apartheid introduced at the arctic sea ice forum.

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: September 15, 2019, 11:52:36 AM »
It's burning in minimum 5 locations, 10 drones were used. This pic is from nasa worldview, yesterday.

6
Consequences / Re: Drought 2019
« on: September 15, 2019, 10:01:56 AM »
The river Maas is running dry (again), and it's not just climate change. https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2019/09/11/de-maas-als-bron-van-drinkwater-kwetsbaarder-door-droogte-a3972921

7
I see it now, it's cumulative mass loss. So the worst part, the green line. Lost 500 000 ton between Jan 2016 and Dec 2018. That's like 25 cm a year.

8
Are you sure it was wrong ? Normaly it can not be that much more than 7 mm a year. If i'm right the loss is from glaciers calving.

9
It's not that much. A ton is something close to 1 by 1 by 1 meter. A km2 is 1 million m2 . So a layer of 1 km2 and 1 meter thick is a million tons. That makes 7000 tons close to nothing.

10
Consequences / Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« on: September 09, 2019, 08:47:02 PM »
Is there any data about how much rain they got in North-Africa in the last 2 years. Maybe there is some influence from the Atlantic or Mediterranean sea.

11
Consequences / Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« on: September 09, 2019, 08:15:12 PM »
Many millions in North Africa and the Middle East could be forced out by rising heat by mid-century:
https://www.cyi.ac.cy/index.php/in-focus/climate-exodus-expected-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa.html

EDIT: Sundarbans next wave of climate refugees:
https://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/591832/climate-refugees/
and in Western Alaska:
https://www.kyuk.org/post/quinhagak-climate-change-means-they-may-have-move

EDIT 2:
Climate refugee target Canada?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canada-climate-refugees-1.5165029


I have been watching climate reanalyzer for 2 years now. And in North-Africa it's always colder than normal. I have no idea how that comes, maybe they get more rain. I think their biggest problem is their fast growing population.

13
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 07, 2019, 04:14:49 PM »
Is that West-Germany you are living ?

14
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 07, 2019, 04:10:03 PM »
So were did you went to if the air is so clean, and how did you get there ?

15
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 07, 2019, 04:07:48 PM »
Maybe he was just pleasing his voters a little bit, after all, the hurricane was already a few days gone. But that's what all politicians do in a democracy. And all these states where the hurricane went to, they all have a government. They don't need Trump to sound the alarm. That's maybe something you can better do yourself.

16
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 07, 2019, 03:33:18 PM »
Trump is not the weather man, he's the president of the US. This world can move into the 3th worldwar any moment. That possibility is probably also something that's on his mind. He's probably not spending most of the day looking how much area the arctic lost. So i think you are a little bit narrow minded blumenkraft. Time to take some fresh air.

17
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: September 04, 2019, 09:40:09 PM »
The Amazon Fires Reveal the Dysfunction of the Global Community
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/08/amazon-fires-reveal-dysfunction-global-community/159426/

The case for territorial incursion in the Amazon is far stronger than the justifications for most war.

When Jair Bolosonaro won Brazil’s presidential election last year, having run on a platform of deforestation, David Wallace-Wells asked, “How much damage can one person do to the planet?” Bolsonaro didn’t pour lighter fluid to ignite the flames now ravishing the Amazon, but with his policies and rhetoric, he might as well have. The destruction he inspired—and allowed to rage with his days of stubborn unwillingness to douse the flames—has placed the planet at a hinge moment in its ecological history. Unfortunately, the planet doesn’t have a clue about how it should respond.

In part, the problem is that so much of the world is now governed by leaders who share Bolsonaro’s sensibility. Even before Bolsonaro presided over the incineration of the world’s storehouse of oxygen, he led a dubious regime. His path to power began with the corrupt impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, followed by the arrest of his higher-polling electoral rival.

In part, the problem is the dismal state of international institutions, which haven’t been so tattered since World War II. In the face of global critics begging Bolsonaro to stop the destruction of the Amazon, he shouts about the threats to Brazil’s sovereignty. For that complaint to land, he would need democratic legitimacy, and this revanchist has none; yet those critics do nothing more than sputter inconsequential rage.

Like Donald Trump, he squeezes personal joy from his confrontations with foreign leaders and NGOs, posing as the manly enemy of the effete elites. In other words, he’s letting the fires burn, at least in part, to troll his enemies. He’s cutting out the world’s lungs for the sake of owning the libs.

Quote
... If a country obtains chemical or biological weapons, the rest of the world tends to react with fury—or at least it did in the not-so-distant past. ... The destruction of the Amazon is arguably far more dangerous than the weapons of mass destruction that have triggered a robust response. The consequences of the unfolding disaster—which will extinguish species and hasten a worst-case climate crisis—extend for eternity.

To lose a fifth of the Amazon to deforestation would trigger a process known as “dieback,” releasing what The Intercept calls a “doomsday bomb of stored carbon.”

If there were a functioning global community, it would be wrestling with how to more aggressively save the Amazon, and acknowledging that the battle against climate change demands not only new international cooperation but, perhaps, the weakening of traditional concepts of the nation-state. ... In the meantime, the planet chokes on old notions of sovereignty.

-----------------------

Brazil’s Bolsonaro Is Endangering the World
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/08/brazils-amazon-policies-endanger-world/159425/

As a store of carbon, the Amazon is fundamental to the survival of every person. If destroyed or degraded, the giant rain forest is simply beyond humanity’s ability to get back. Even if people were to replant half a continent’s worth of trees, the diversity of creatures across Amazonia, once lost, will not be replenished for roughly 10 million years. And that is 33 times longer than Homo sapiens, as a species, has existed.

-------------------------------

G7: Trump Skips Talks On Climate Crisis and Amazon Fires
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/aug/26/donald-trump-skips-g7-talks-on-climate-crisis-and-amazon-fires

Donald Trump did not attend Monday’s crucial discussion on climate and biodiversity at the G7 meeting of international leaders in Biarritz, missing talks on how to deal with the Amazon rainforest fires as well as new ways to cut carbon emissions.

Reporters noticed at the start of the session that the US president’s chair was empty.

Trump was later asked by reporters covering a meeting with the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, whether he had attended the climate session. He replied: “We’re having it in a little while.” He did not appear to hear when a reporter told him it had just taken place.

And that one person is Obama. You have to understand that the USD is the world reserve currency. For most international trade countries need USD. And Obama printed 10 trillion USD. That money made the rest of the world grow. And when they grow, they need more USD. And that makes the USD stronger and stronger. A couple years ago you had a little more than 1,5 brasilian real for 1 usd. Today you have 4 brasilian real for 1 usd. That makes brasilian soybeans 70% cheaper than US soybeans compared to a couple years ago. If they asked 1,5 real for 1 kilo soybeans a couple years ago, they now almost get 3 kilo soybeans for that same 1 usd. And US farmers can not drop their price with 70 %, for them 1 USD stays 1 USD. And that creates plenty demand for brasilian soybeans. And i know what Bolsanero has been telling before the elections, but maybe he counted on the people to vote for him because they are tired of all that political correctness. I'am not sure if he realised it was going to have such an impact. ofcourse, it's his job to protect the forest. But demands comes from global growth, and that global growth is triggered by Obama's money printing spree. And because he did'nt do what he had to do, the money printing continues. Consumption on basis of printed money, soon we can say goodbuy to the entire Amazon forest i think. And in a low yield world, 70 % is a big margin. And did you ever asked yourself the question if there are some brasilian soybeans involved in the products you buy. I think many people don't do. So they will eat the Amazon without knowing. And Trump, he tries to sell American soybeans to keep US farmers alive. Maybe he will fail, but it will cost us the Amazon forest.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: September 03, 2019, 10:15:45 PM »
That's 33000km2 on the surface, and 1,1 million km2 below the surface.

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: September 03, 2019, 09:28:30 PM »
They are talking about 400, 660 and 1300 feet between the wells. Lets take the 660 feet , or 200 meters. That's 200 meters wide and 3000 meters long. So one well covers 0,6 km2. And 1,7 million times 0,6 km2 is 1,02 million square km. Or a little more than 10 % of the US. Sounds already pretty substantial.

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: September 03, 2019, 08:41:46 PM »
The shale oil is not a direct competitor for the windturbines and solar panels, but the shale gas is. It's that big supply from the last years that brought prices down, or at least prevented them from going up. If that supply would get smaller, the price for electricity will go up. And that will turn these solar panels and windturbines into little goldmines. But it will not replaces most use of oil in the short term.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: September 03, 2019, 08:24:58 PM »
  I was looking for a number in square miles or km. And they are talking about 5 to 10 square miles for one rig, but is that the fracing ? And is one rig the same as one borehole ? Because there are 1,7 million shale oil and gas wells in the US. At least that's what the next site makes me think, and it has the worth "frac" in the name. If there are 1,7 boreholes that cover 5 square miles, that means that 8,5 million square miles are used . And the entire US is something like 6,5 million square miles. So probably something is'nt correct. https://www.fractracker.org/2015/08/1-7-million-wells/

22
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: September 03, 2019, 07:55:55 PM »
Somebody should arm them, so that they at least can fight back. Before these globalists kill them all.

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: September 03, 2019, 07:51:45 PM »
When they frac they first drill vertical, until they get close to the layer where they want to be. And than they start to drill horizontal. On average 3 km. Does somebody knows how far they frac the area left and right from the borehole ? How far is the pressure cruching that layer ?

24
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 02, 2019, 10:46:45 PM »
How would i have to know ? Most CEO's have more from a pshycopathe than the average prisoner. But most manage to controle themself. But there is some dirt among these elites. Would it be enough to start a war. That would set them all free. You guys all to the battle-field.

25
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 02, 2019, 10:12:51 PM »
How would you know he's a rapist ? You hope he's one.

26
The rest / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: September 02, 2019, 10:00:31 PM »
You should be happy that Trump won the elections. Otherwise you now had a president that has a husband the was a regular visitor on the lolita express to pedo island.

27
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: September 01, 2019, 08:37:50 PM »

28
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 30, 2019, 11:07:57 PM »
And something els. Because of that high population density over here, the place is a cancer paradise. So it's more like you killing me.

29
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 30, 2019, 10:54:56 PM »
Why, because he's drilling for oil ? Than you should tell your family to sell their car. And to stop travelling, and stop going to the supermarket. And nobody will drill for oil anymore. But until today the US needs 20 million barrels every day. That's what feeds their economy. That's how they make their money to go to the supermarket and to travel the world.

30
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 30, 2019, 07:56:56 PM »
They still predict it's going to be a hurricane  after he moved north half of the state. Probably he keeps getting power from the ocean. That would be the worst case scenario.

31
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 30, 2019, 07:53:01 PM »
There is a big difference. Trump tries to protect it's home. If we all did that, there would be no climate crisis, no immigrant crisis.... But the hate you find here, that's blind hate. You hate him, because you don't agree with him.

32
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 30, 2019, 06:43:09 PM »
That's almost the entire east-coast. And with just a few days out.

33
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 30, 2019, 07:59:42 AM »
So much hate over here.

34
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: August 25, 2019, 08:35:23 PM »
Some older belgian  punk/rock. The Wolf Banes, as the bottle runs dry.   

35
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: August 23, 2019, 07:14:27 PM »
And it looks like the african forests are not burning less. This is going to be a disaster.

37
If i have to belief Ventusky, than we are going for our 3th heatwave this summer. That's from one heatwave every 4 years, 20 years ago. To 3 heatwaves in a summer.

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 16, 2019, 08:05:50 PM »
I hope the waves are not going to get to big, but they already look a little bit big for that little boat. And that for saving what we ruined.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 15, 2019, 05:51:40 PM »
ok, thanks. I think that little thing is going to gain plenty supporters.

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 15, 2019, 05:23:59 PM »
The link to follow her is not working. Can somebody see something ?

42
The rest / Re: Leftism is a greater threat than climate change
« on: August 08, 2019, 09:14:15 PM »

I am not watching an hour-long screed by some bleeding heart soy boy.

Refugees have been weaponized by Erdogan and while some Germans may not realize this, enough hopefully will soon. They are certainly dealing with poor, hungry, needy people -- but these people have specifically been allowed to cross into Europe by Turkey with the intent of destabilizing European powers. They are not being integrated properly because they do not WANT to be integrated (though some certainly do), Erdogan's goal is to destabilize and destroy European culture, and he is using the bleeding hearts to do this with vigor.


Even Erdogans calls for all Turkish woman to have at least 3 children, can you imagine what the immam tells in the mosque. And even Erdogan is a Muslim Brotherhood supporter, that's Osama Bin Laden's school. That's the guy that crashed these airplanes in the Twin Towers.

43
The rest / Re: Leftism is a greater threat than climate change
« on: August 08, 2019, 09:09:23 PM »
Alexander,
  Which part can be blamed on the Leftists?  Who creates the failed states? 

Looks like an anti-muslim word salad to me...  maybe you have a future in speech writing if Steven Miller retires.

We will see how the Brexit ends, and the Trump story, and all these bankrupted Western democracies. The last time in Belgium it took more than 500 days to make a government.

44
The rest / Re: Leftism is a greater threat than climate change
« on: August 08, 2019, 08:19:46 PM »
So some of you see the alt-right as the big problem. Let me tell you, half of Afghanistan is under control of the Taliban,islamists, heroindealers. In India at this moment,you have Khasmir. A muslim majority part of India. That is beinig populated by muslims from Pakistan. You have the Rohinyas from Bangladesh that moved to Myanmar and are now back in Myanmar. In the south of Thailand there is a big muslim population, and it's like a little war zone. In the Philippines they have a big muslim population and they already had to bombard a city with a population of 300 000 people. Reality is that they always want to convert everybody to the Islam. It's not a passif religeon. All these african countries where you have a 50/50 muslim/christian population, are like warzones. And it's not the christians that are expanding. How many Jews live in Israël ? A couple million. Would they still be alive without the support of the US ? Because they are surrounded by a few hundreds of millions of muslim brotherhood supporters. I think more than half of Egypt voted for the muslim brotherhood. But you can not say a worth about all of this or you are a fascist. I think most of you guys have to take a look at your own tolerance first. Before you create more failed states.

45
The rest / Re: Leftism is a greater threat than climate change
« on: August 08, 2019, 08:18:52 AM »
It's maybe stupid to say, because we can not turn back time. But leftism is a disaster for this planet. If you look at what they have been doing for a long time. And than i'm talking about UNICEF, docters without borders, United Nations, all the NGO's..... They go to a place like Africa with their modern medical equipment......And the number of children that dies at birth or in their first years start to drop significantly. And the result is strong population growth in a place where there would not be population growth without their intervention. Because where is the infrastructure, the sewage system, the food, the jobs......The result is a giant extremely poor population.

46
Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: August 06, 2019, 09:48:45 PM »
Why would it be so bad this year ? Insects can pop up in very large numbers in just a short time.

47
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 06, 2019, 05:00:28 PM »
It don't sounds like they are speaking russian.

48
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: August 06, 2019, 04:41:39 PM »
Some footage from the floods in Russia. In just a couple minutes the water was a couple meters high.  Looks like a tsunami. https://www.hln.be/video/in-drie-minuten-staat-water-metershoog-in-straten~p94637

49
Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: August 06, 2019, 03:35:02 PM »
5,7 million people got malaria so far this year in Burundi, on a population of 11 million people. https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/miljoenen-malariabesmettingen-in-burundi-1-800-mensen-overleden~aa46f0d59/

50
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: August 06, 2019, 01:54:35 PM »
Francisco just left Japan. And 2 big boys are gaining strength. Lekimas central pressure wil drop into the low 30's by Thursday morning. https://japantoday.com/category/national/Typhoon-leaves-1-dead-in-southwestern-Japan

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