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Messages - Aluminium

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 15
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2020)
« on: Today at 12:16:15 PM »
Changes from August 31.

Chukchi ... -100%
Beaufort ... -32%
CAB ... -6%
CAA ... +14%
Greenland ... +12%
Baffin ... +43%

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: Today at 11:40:15 AM »
September 14-19.

2019.

3
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: September 18, 2020, 06:51:36 PM »
Subtropical storm Alpha appeared.

4
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: September 17, 2020, 09:26:23 PM »
2020 cannot end without a medicane.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 17, 2020, 05:47:48 AM »
September 12-16.

2019.

6
The Arctic is a strange place, sometimes unpredictable. Is minimum above 3.5? I'll wait a week to be sure.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 06:04:08 AM »
September 10-14.

2019.

8
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: September 14, 2020, 05:04:43 PM »
Teddy and Vicky have formed. One name left.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 13, 2020, 08:18:21 AM »
September 8-12.

2019.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: 365 day average extent poll
« on: September 12, 2020, 07:41:54 AM »
We need a poll about poll. :)

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 11, 2020, 06:07:08 AM »
September 6-10.

2019.

12
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: September 10, 2020, 06:53:39 PM »
NHC has some work this week.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 09, 2020, 06:09:05 AM »
September 4-8.

2019.

14
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: September 07, 2020, 05:14:15 PM »
Tropical storm PAULETTE
Quote
Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020
Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm
of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe,
which formed on September 17, 2005.

Another one is already formed into a depression and should be named next hours.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 07, 2020, 06:03:00 AM »
September 2-6.

2019.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 05, 2020, 06:41:59 AM »
August 31 - September 4.

2019.

17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: September 04, 2020, 04:56:54 PM »

18
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: September 04, 2020, 05:21:56 AM »
Maysak brought rarely strong wind to Vladivostok.

The Atlantic Ocean generates a lot of storms this year. 6 names left in the list.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: September 03, 2020, 08:30:31 PM »
Possible PIOMAS September average based on previous years:

2000   4,314
2001   4,256
2002   4,278
2003   4,255
2004   4,300
2005   4,159
2006   4,110
2007   4,223
2008   3,894
2009   4,139
2010   4,257
2011   4,202
2012   4,174
2013   4,257
2014   4,126
2015   4,218
2016   4,203
2017   4,324
2018   4,217
2019   4,347

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2020)
« on: September 03, 2020, 07:58:25 PM »
Changes from August 15.

Kara ... -100%
ESS ... -100%
Chukchi ... -90%
Beaufort ... -22%
CAA ... -21%
CAB ... -15%
Greenland ... -5%
Baffin ... +28%

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: September 03, 2020, 06:19:06 AM »
>50% is enough to have positive mathematical expectation. Even if High Confidence was a better choice, 3.25-3.75 seems the most probable at this time.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 03, 2020, 05:56:29 AM »
August 29 - September 2.

2019.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 01, 2020, 05:04:14 AM »
August 27-31.

August 1-31 (fast).

2019.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 30, 2020, 09:28:34 AM »
August 25-29.

2019.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 29, 2020, 03:43:01 PM »
DMI north of 80N temperature is still above zero. Aftermath of insane July? With these persistent southerlies, I wonder if at some point most of ice extent/area will remain in the Beaufort and CAA.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 28, 2020, 07:04:57 AM »
August 23-27.

2019.

27
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 27, 2020, 03:23:37 PM »
Greg Postel
Quote
Early reports suggest storm surge flooding thankfully wasn't nearly as high as some prior projections ... waiting on more data

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 26, 2020, 07:06:10 AM »
August 21-25.

2019.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 24, 2020, 03:54:37 PM »
This melting season ends possibly with a grand finale. There is still enough warmth and vulnerable ice for something spectacular.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 24, 2020, 07:09:26 AM »
August 19-23.

2019.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 23, 2020, 09:25:31 AM »
Yesterday the Sun was two times closer to the celestial equator compared to solstice. Normal temperature is falling after it. However, given the forecast, this year is going to delay. Winds north of the Laptev Sea will try to do some damage in the CAB.

32
Consequences / Re: Generational Amnesia
« on: August 22, 2020, 09:36:00 AM »
It will be difficult for yougsters to imagine car front windows and car bumpers/numberplates full of splashed insects.
Insects have problems but sometimes...

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 22, 2020, 06:57:46 AM »
August 17-21.

2019.

34
"Red ice" has melted. "Blue ice" is alive.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 11:43:30 AM »
In July the cyclone forecasted to be much weaker than it was. Correct forecast appeared 2-3 days before event.

36
Changes from July 31.

Laptev ... -100%
Barents ... -100%
Hudson ... -100%
Kara ... -91%
Chukchi ... -72%
ESS ... -63%
Greenland ... -61%
Beaufort ... -37%
CAA ... -28%
Baffin ... -22%
CAB ... -16%

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 20, 2020, 07:55:40 AM »
August 13-19.

2019.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 05:17:05 PM »
August 4-18 (fast).

Was busy. Normal gif will be tomorrow.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 16, 2020, 07:51:37 AM »
August 11-15.

2019.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 14, 2020, 02:43:01 PM »
New record?

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 14, 2020, 08:08:56 AM »
August 9-13.

2019.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 12, 2020, 08:14:20 AM »
August 7-11.

2019.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 10, 2020, 07:27:38 AM »
August 5-9.

2019.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2020?
« on: August 08, 2020, 11:06:23 PM »
The map also shows an arrow indicating a WSW-ward drift of 2nm/day
After this melting season we will certainly measure the ice in nanometres (nm). I can assume that you meant nautical miles but this was confusing for me.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 11:32:10 AM »
Aggressive WAAs in May/June to reduce albedo, persistent anticyclones in July to input energy, powerful cyclones in August to melt remnants. Is it a perfect melting season? In any case, this year successfully completed 2/3 and the ice looks exhausted.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:26:42 AM »
August 3-7.

2019.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:26:43 PM »
This is ten days out, and thus completely unreliable, but holy guacamole if it does happen. A big storm like this has been in the long term forecast for a while now, so I don't think it can be ruled out completely. Something to keep an eye on for sure!
We already had one miniGAC and it was a disaster on the Pacific side. Another one or even stronger seems likely.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:10:21 AM »
August 1-5.

2019.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: August 05, 2020, 08:58:05 AM »
JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.
PIOMAS: 4.25-4.75 high.

JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 high.
PIOMAS: 4.0-4.5 high.

JAXA: 3.25-3.75 high.
NSIDC: 3.75-4.25 very high.
PIOMAS: 3.75-4.25 very high. :)

50
Changes from July 15.

Laptev ... -94%
Barents ... -91%
Hudson ... -90%
Kara ... -84%
ESS ... -80%
Baffin ... -68%
Chukchi ... -61%
CAA ... -45%
Beaufort ... -35%
Greenland ... -32%
CAB ... -21%

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