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Messages - SimonF92

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1
An interesting paper on modelling changes in Arctic precipitation over time

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34450-3

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 17, 2020, 11:44:32 AM »
I was reading this last week, seems pretty relevant

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34450-3

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 03:24:52 PM »
In my effort to be facetious I have dragged up a pretty long standing discussion about the dam which you can find over at

"Stupid questions :o"

I think it was gerontocrat himself (could be wrong though) who provided me with some good reading over there about it, if any of you want to have a look.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 01:40:24 PM »
...its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.
I think we're already seeing the results during the melting and freezing season, no? It took ages for the Chukchi sea to freeze over, and during summer, most of the melting is on the Pacific side, while melting on the Atlantic side wasn't all that fierce last year.

The danger I see is that most of the methane hydrates are located on the side that's warming up the fastest. When more heat starts to enter the Arctic ocean from the Bering sea, this puts those hydrates at even more risks of melting much sooner...

Several billion tonnes of cement poured into the strait and a Beluga trebuchet to prevent ecological disaster will fix the issue
But do you think that will actually be done?

Personally I dont think Geoengineering on that scale is ever a good idea, even if it would almost certainly help preserve ice.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 01:24:04 PM »
...its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.
I think we're already seeing the results during the melting and freezing season, no? It took ages for the Chukchi sea to freeze over, and during summer, most of the melting is on the Pacific side, while melting on the Atlantic side wasn't all that fierce last year.

The danger I see is that most of the methane hydrates are located on the side that's warming up the fastest. When more heat starts to enter the Arctic ocean from the Bering sea, this puts those hydrates at even more risks of melting much sooner...

Several billion tonnes of cement poured into the strait and a Beluga trebuchet to prevent ecological disaster will fix the issue

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 07, 2020, 11:28:22 AM »
Figure 7C from that paper seems to suggest that the damage to the Chuchki in terms of Oceanic heat transfer is being done in high-summer (~ June, July, ~ August) and not just in the Autumn when the effects manifest.

I suppose in a way that makes sense, but its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: January 06, 2020, 04:53:22 PM »
Is there any data on the strength of the current in the Bering strait over the last few decades?
Everyone was attacking my drunken message, but I didn't get any response on the question if there is any data available on the strength of the Bering Strait current over the last few decades? I would like to know if that current became stronger, or stayed the same in the last 50 years or so, but I can't find any graphs on Google..

here (the format is a bit weird but the data is great):

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BeringStraitSeasonalInterannualChange2017.html

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 29, 2019, 01:52:06 AM »
And whats more, there are no indications of any imminent SSW events.

Its strange how a toasty Chukchi so quickly transitioned into extreme cold over Alaska (which looks to be sustained for the [accurately] foreseeable future).

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 06:10:45 PM »
33 YO John Miller

Can you say anything without making shit personal? What is wrong with you?

I dread to think how lowly the 92 in my name must be interpreted. But then again Einstein published four 1st author papers at 26- technically his best year.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 03:35:00 PM »
Ah sorry about the mistake, I am pretty hungover today and did that earlier to avoid doing the work I should actually be doing.

You can see the code (sorry if you dont think R is code) on the left, so replicating the analysis and plots should be pretty straightforward with other data-sets- if you do like the way it was done.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 19, 2019, 01:10:24 PM »
I for one, like your finding correlations all over the place, ArcticMelt. Very impressive even if they turn out not being causation. How do you find them?

Just now there is a lot of news on the Internet about a very warm winter in Europe. Everywhere they write that last similar winter was in 2006-2007. Therefore, the correlation with the minima of the Arctic ice suggests itself.

I also came across studies about the possible connection of strong Arctic minima with El Nino and minima of solar activity (in 2007 there was a minimum of solar activity, in 2012, the maximum was the opposite).

I plotted it and you may well be onto something :)

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 17, 2019, 10:34:39 PM »
ArcticMelt2 this is a great resource for looking at relationships

https://ecm.um.maine.edu/reanalysis/monthly_correl/index.php

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2019, 01:12:10 PM »
Heres an mp4 of that temperature change.

Its limited to 10fps for those with low bandwidth

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2019, 12:50:43 PM »
It doesn't really look like the situation in Europe will be changing any time soon either.

Personally im not convinced that there are enough residuals to draw a correlation between European snow cover and Arctic ice. You may be onto something though- so why not try?

Last year I plotted UK June rainfall against September minimum and nearly got a significant correlation.

More importantly however it DOES look like the Chukchi is finally going to get cold.

15
Thanks for the update!

PS: Reverend BBR does not have posting rights anymore.

bbr lost their posting rights? I always enjoyed their comments, they certainly got things percolating  :D.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 02, 2019, 12:00:15 PM »
Quote
The rapid Chukchi Sea ice extent increase has abruptly stopped due to change in winds; November ends with lowest #seaice extent of record in @NSIDC data. Bering Sea extent better but is still less than half of average for Nov 30. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ZLabe @seaice_de




Quote
Autumn 2019 at Utqiaġvik easily the warmest of the past 99 years due to no sea ice & record high nearshore #ssts. Avg temp 28.8F (-1.8C), previous warmest 2016. Trend of 10F (5.6C) since early '90s is stunning. #akwx #Arctic




https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Rules for fitting a linear regression;

Constant variance
Linear
Independence
Normal distribution
Error free sampling of residuals

Makes me cringe seeing important data like that, represented like that.


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 26, 2019, 11:07:17 PM »

Interesting replies, thanks.

I was looking at the 6m swells in the chukchi- that really cant be helping at the moment.  Crazier things have been proposed (arctic air con etc).

The Hong Kong - Mainland  (edit- its the HK- Macau) bridge is 20+ miles long and im pretty sure China is planning an even bigger one so it could be done- could even generate clean energy.

As an aside I read they are considering tidal barriers around the Venetian inlet alongside pumping something (cant remember what) into the sub-sea fresh water aquifers [probably water]- which apparently should help raise the city.

Thanks for the link Gerontocrat I will have a read of this.

Forgive my ramblings, this seems to be the place for it by namesake.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 26, 2019, 06:46:43 PM »
Irrespective of ecological effects, based purely on geophysics, would a wall here help to preserve Arctic ice?

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: November 25, 2019, 06:25:13 PM »
Cool article, pardon the pun, but where on earth is;

" a native village built precariously on a thin spit of land caught between the Chukchi and Arctic oceans"

 :-\

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 21, 2019, 06:32:54 PM »
Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

Although if you look at the higher resolution Uni-Bremen there is not as much ice in those bays.

Response to a discussion in the data thread. UH animation, 2016 to 2019. Click to start.
2019 initial Bering refreeze is indeed earlier.

There has been a pretty constant northerly wind on that area for about a week now.

That looks set to change within a few days to south-westerlies. I'm guessing the change in winds will be pretty negatively impactful for the ice thats forming there.

I tried to make a nullschool gif but it was simply horrible, you can see for yourself here;

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/11/25/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-198.75,68.91,1093

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 15, 2019, 09:43:16 AM »
November 10-14.


Is the ESS ice near the shore being melted, or just pushed away by wind?

It looks like the ice follows the predominant wind pattern over the same period, my money would be on wind

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 13, 2019, 02:02:46 PM »
It is, but Aluminium prefers not to, I think it might be a filesize issue.
I think it's mostly a usability trade-off issue between too much cropping and too much zooming out, where I think Aluminium hit the sweet spot. And it's also a backward compatibility issue with his previous animations as he's been making these for over a year now using the same cropping template.
The downside is that at the end of the freezing season (Jan, Feb) all the action is in the far peripheral seas and the animation becomes less useful. That is the time of year when Aluminium decreases the publishing rate to once a week, IIRC.
I will take the opportunity to again thank Aluminium for this important service to the community.

Seconded on that, your figures are always appreciated Aluminium

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 04, 2019, 12:03:40 PM »
The speed of the Russian side refreeze depends on which  timepoint you define as your starting one.

If it was 2 weeks ago it has been incredibly fast.

If it was 1 month ago it has been pretty slow.

So in terms of surface radiation its either been a good OR a bad year?

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 03, 2019, 06:47:35 PM »
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

It makes sense, a few points though;

The argument is normally that a delayed refreeze allows more heat to vent into space, not that it creates more snow. Snow protects sea ice during spring/summer but is bad for sea ice in the autumn as it insulates against the polar night.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2019, 01:12:54 PM »
October 27-31.

2018.

Damn, thats fast. I wonder if thats a new single-day gain record

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 23, 2019, 02:32:27 PM »
Some advances beginning to happen

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 14, 2019, 11:57:05 AM »
Conditions in pretty much the entire Russian side of the Arctic are terribly warm at the moment. I don't see any real indication that a catch-up will be happening soon either.

There is evidence of a refreeze beginning in the Laptev but it is likely to be anaemic and limited to the coast.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2019, 12:55:01 PM »
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway
Attached is a graph showing average, 2019 and 2018 extent change from mid Sept to mid-November (JAXA data).

The low 2019 refreeze since minimum is impressive, as was 2018 until now. My guess is that persisting high SST anomalies and +ve Arctic temperature anomalies averaging around +3 for the next week or so will keep refreeze below average for a bit longer - & then zoom up as in 2018 (or maybe not)?

Lovely figure gerontocrat

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: October 07, 2019, 05:08:20 PM »
I sit next to a neuroscientist, I would really love to see that paper.

I read a paper about some people who transferred slug memories to other slugs, but never anything about worm cannibalism!

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 03, 2019, 03:12:18 PM »
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

 Lorenzo has dropped by (N. Ireland ) .. wind and rain steadily increasing . A lot of L's energy is heading toward the Arctic , mostly via Greenland . Temps are forecast to briefly reach >0'C at the pole in a few days.
  Those last few days record low ice days from  2007 look like being replaced by 2019 later this month .
b.c.
 


Most regrettable you feel like that, I always welcome being able to read contributions that foster my own understanding and I have always felt that this forum has a brilliant tolerance to those less knowledgeable.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 05:59:05 PM »
I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.
That's what I always thought. I thought that maybe the AMOC changed its path a little somehow, and is now bumping into Svalbard, causing it to rise to the surface, heating it up.

A valid hypothesis!

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 03:20:31 PM »
Great explanation John, but why this persistence? A decadal swing in the location of these vortices or forcing due to sea ice changes?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2019, 02:42:29 PM »
I would like to see a publication or higher level interpretation of this blob of doom which has persisted off SW Svalbard for ~4 years.

I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.

Yes, thats a SSTA of 13 degrees Celsius.

Edit; im aware that its very unlikely this is actually a real SSTA value, probably closer to +3 or 4, but still, why?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: Accuracy of poll predictions
« on: September 27, 2019, 04:41:25 PM »
Great post Stephen, thanks for taking the time to plot it.

This is the first year we didn't get any renegades going >5 or <1. Data looks most normally distributed too, which indicates opinions were more cohesive in 2019.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 27, 2019, 11:17:50 AM »
Sark would you mind explaining why you think its "going to be one hell of a cold dunk into winter for Northern Hemisphere civilization" please?

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2019, 09:31:51 AM »
This slide is from a talk given at the 2019 Spring Arctic Seasonal Review.

2019 was a bumper year for snow and the Arctic ice is shot to pieces at the moment.

I have seen snow chat plague these threads so even though its good to be having a debate i'm going to throw in the towel now.

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: September 24, 2019, 11:46:57 PM »
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.

Image to stay on-topic; ice formation in most sectors, but a bit of contraction in the western Laptev

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Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: September 16, 2019, 10:41:32 PM »
Picked this up today, cover- cover on the Arctic

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 15, 2019, 08:36:07 PM »
Just take a look at the poll-results year on year and you will see that weatherdude88 is not alone in his inaccuracy of prediction AND that the data is invariably weighted toward lower-than-actual prediction (though i suspect this year may buck that trend).

That being said he did take a risk coming out with what he did.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 13, 2019, 03:51:59 PM »
Cold Eastern-Beaufort? Is that an artefact? Seems odd given the conditions there this melt season

Ice has been  imported from the cab and melting in this area of the Beaufort all season.

Didn't the same thing happen in 2012 and 2016?

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 13, 2019, 02:36:29 PM »
Cold Eastern-Beaufort? Is that an artefact? Seems odd given the conditions there this melt season

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 10, 2019, 09:09:30 PM »
Nah, what's that face Simon? Being corrected on something doesn't vindicate such a face. It's all good mate. :)

And thanks a lot for the 'veteran' compliment. Very kind of you. :D

Haha im only kidding Blumenkraft, my PhD basically consists of me being corrected by those more experienced and informed than me- I take each correction as a chance to learn!

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 10, 2019, 05:06:48 PM »
I suspect if i am up against 3 veterans then the chances are that its clouds  :'(

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 10, 2019, 01:57:50 PM »
New ice between Borden and Mackenzie King Island in the CAA

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 08, 2019, 09:55:50 PM »
Nowadays sheets are small, fractured and thin and  i think that much of the bottom of such "new kind of ice-sheets" is exposed to almost surface water quality. Not very saline, stirred up permanently and venting it's energy/heat through the many leads and areas of open water.

Therefore I suggest to consider that bottom melt could be over-rated nowadays, simply due to old habits/behaviors that are not fully applicable anymore over large areas of the remaining late season ice.
I think you're getting it wrong. The ice fractured because bottom melt has eaten all the way through the ice, which causes the ice to weaken and break up. So I don't think bottom melt is over-rated.

The ice fractures when its too thin to withstand kinetic forces acting on it. The ice is thinned by both bottom and top melt. All melts are equal (though some are more equal than others)

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 08, 2019, 09:27:12 AM »
Sark if that November model forecast is actualised then I will be genuinely apologetic but until then I remain healthily sceptical. Those kind of anomalies in the ESS and Laptev in November just dont make sense. There will be bumps absolutely but a sustained >+13C?

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 07, 2019, 12:36:25 PM »
It's not the model that I take seriously

it's the physics that causes it to do this

Ill believe that forecast when i see it

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 01:30:59 PM »
Thanks oren, I stand corrected!

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 03, 2019, 09:13:59 AM »
Marcel you are correct, it was 2015 we watched "Big Block" spin its way to oblivion in the Beaufort. Since then I have seen nothing even similar to how robust that ice was.

We are probably unlikely to again in our lifetimes.

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