Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - Human Habitat Index

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 5
Consequences / Re: Origins of SARS-CoV-2
« on: March 02, 2021, 01:14:47 AM »
“Influenza virions therefore resemble exosomes both in their hydrodynamic properties and in their protein composition.”

Exosomes need to be stored at -70C, so how can “viruses” survive in open air when they have the same hydrodynamic properties ?

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 17, 2020, 04:17:09 AM »
There is no Matrix B

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 15, 2020, 06:09:40 AM »
Allen says:
August 13, 2020 at 5:17 pm
AVG Age of “Death by Covid”:

Austria 80+ years Source EMS;
Canada 86 years Source HCSC;
England 80+ years Source NHS;
France 84 years Source SPF;
Germany 82 years Source RKI;
Italy 81 years Source ISS;
Spain 82 years Source MDS;
Switzerland 84 years Source BAG;
United States 80 years Source CDC;
Sweden 86 years Source FOHM

A “global pandemic” is certainly not defined by age of deaths EXCEEDING the normal lifespan with no young healthy people are affected.

I will offer up just a few broad comments and put details to them if you wish:

1) There is no excess death toll due to virus- that death toll is due to policy shifts and attribution to “Covid” is patently false when not outright administrative corruption by health officials;

2) Above “excess” death toll is an artifact of nursing home mismanagement- 60% of “covid deaths” from nursing homes + or – 3%- once that is taken away we have near record numbers of low mortality rates in country after country;

3) The average age of “Covid deaths” worldwide EXCEEDS the normal lifespan of citizens of those countries- that being 81 years old with on average 2.5 comorbidities- think about that;

4) Average number of weeks of life lost due to “Covid” is a mere 1-3 weeks and that’s without consideration of having died “from” or “with”;

5) PCR tests used to determine “cases” are a diagnostic fraud- inventor of PCR test, Kary Mullis, asserted PCR tests were not designed for diagnostic purposes;

6) Cases which are determined by flawed PCR tests are purposefully juiced up in numerous ways- want details?- this is not simply more tests=more cases we are talking medical and institutional fraud- why did the CDC change years old policies on March 24th, April 14th and June 13th with each change designed to increase number of “positive” test cases;

7) The WHO changed it’s definition of pandemic in 2009. Why? What preceded this in 2007?

8) In the annals of pandemic since the year 350 this one ranks 23rd out of 24 in overall deaths as a percentage of population worldwide. The swine flu pandemic of 2009 (coincidentally the same year the WHO changed that definition) ranks 24th. These two pandemics are several hundred (thousand in some cases) % points lower in mortality rates than past pandemics- how did they even make the cut;

9) The “deaths from Covid” are from a specific demographic- pandemics are noted to impact mortality rates of a broad demographic. That demographic is not merely the elderly but the most fragile of the fragile of the elderly who could die from any infection in their condition;

10) “Deaths from Covid” are from specific locations. Pandemics are defined (supposed to be) by cutting across a wide swath of geographic regions. This pandemic has the habit of only impacting densely populated areas and more specifically the elderly in those areas and more specifically nursing homes- in the US for example if we eliminated just the deaths from NJ and NYC nursing homes we would not be having this conversation. In Italy same would be said if we eliminated deaths from elderly in Northern Italy- same elsewhere Belgium, spain, Canada, Sweden etc.;

The above 10 points are the short list.

If people would stop wearing masks and stay off the internet and cable news for a week no one would know there was such a virus in existence.

You can’t stop living the lie until you stop telling it.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 15, 2020, 05:29:14 AM »
On Friday, April 24, 2020, Vittorio Sgarbi, a member of the Italian Chamber of Deputies, denounced what he claims are false coronavirus death statistics. Sgarbi feels that fake statistics are being propagated by the government and the media to terrorize the citizens of Italy and establish a dictatorship.

The science of the coronavirus is not disputed. It is well documented and openly admitted:

Most people won’t get the virus.
Most of the people who get it won’t display symptoms.
Most of the people who display symptoms will only be mildly sick.
Most of the people with severe symptoms will never be critically ill.
And most of the people who get critically ill will survive.

1. On May 26th Dr Alexander Myasnikov, Russia’s head of coronavirus information, gave an interview to former-Presidential candidate Ksenia Sobchak in which he apparently let slip his true feelings.

Believing the interview over, and the camera turned off, Myasnikov said:

It’s all bullshit […] It’s all exaggerated. It’s an acute respiratory disease with minimal mortality […] Why has the whole world been destroyed? That I don’t know,”

2. The Danish Health Authority continues to consider that covid-19 cannot be described as a generally dangerous disease, as it does not have either a usually serious course or a high mortality rate

3. The report was commissioned by the German department of the interior, but then its findings were ignored, prompting one of the authors to release it through non-official channels.

We’re going to focus on just the reports conclusions, including [our emphasis]:

The dangerousness of Covid-19 was overestimated: probably at no point did the danger posed by the new virus go beyond the normal level.
The danger is obviously no greater than that of many other viruses. There is no evidence that this was more than a false alarm.
During the Corona crisis the State has proved itself as one of the biggest producers of Fake News.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 15, 2020, 04:44:52 AM »
Government quietly drops 1.3m Covid tests from England tally

Exclusive: Double counting raises fresh questions about accuracy of testing figures

"The Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC) said the changes affected data reported between 14 May and 12 August. It said there had been “a double-counting of test kits that had been dispatched”, “which had not been removed from the lab’s processed data”."

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 15, 2020, 03:23:30 AM »
Rappoport: In 2009, you spearheaded coverage of the so-called Swine Flu pandemic. You discovered that, in the summer of 2009, the Centers for Disease Control, ignoring their federal mandate, [secretly] stopped counting Swine Flu cases in America. Yet they continued to stir up fear about the “pandemic,” without having any real measure of its impact. Wasn’t that another investigation of yours that was shut down? Wasn’t there more to find out?

Attkisson: The implications of the story were even worse than that. We discovered through our FOI efforts that before the CDC mysteriously stopped counting Swine Flu cases, they had learned that almost none of the cases they had counted as Swine Flu was, in fact, Swine Flu or any sort of flu at all! The interest in the story from one [CBS] executive was very enthusiastic. He said it was “the most original story” he’d seen on the whole Swine Flu epidemic. But others pushed to stop it [after it was published on the CBS News website] and, in the end, no [CBS television news] broadcast wanted to touch it. We aired numerous stories pumping up the idea of an epidemic, but not the one that would shed original, new light on all the hype. It was fair, accurate, legally approved and a heck of a story. With the CDC keeping the true Swine Flu stats secret, it meant that many in the public took and gave their children an experimental vaccine that may not have been necessary.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 15, 2020, 02:15:32 AM »
Tanzania says 'faulty' WHO test kits showed coronavirus in a goat and a pawpaw

"Dr John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control (CDC), said Tanzania was using test kits supplied by the Africa CDC in collaboration with the Chinese Jack Ma Foundation, which met international standards.

"Tanzania is using the same test that everyone is using," Dr Nkengasong said, noting that it was improbable the tests were faulty."

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 14, 2020, 04:39:19 PM »
According to the Australian Government  Department of Health -

"The reliability of COVID-19 tests is uncertain due to the limited evidence base. Available evidence mainly comes from symptomatic patients, and their clinical role in detecting asymptomatic carriers is unclear."


" The extent to which a positive PCR result correlates with the infectious state of an individual is still being determined"

So the tests are dodgy

The inventor Kary Mullis, who received the Nobel Prize,  did say the PCR test is only useful qualitatively, not quantitatively.

The rest / Re: Pseudoscience and how to debunk it
« on: August 07, 2020, 06:23:44 AM »
Interesting article

Growing number of Aussies believe police should be able to fine COVID-19 conspiracy theorists

I suggest a thread be titled "Alternative hypotheses to conventional wisdom"

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 06, 2020, 02:27:25 AM »
See under EPIDEMIOLOCICAL STUDIES: “Perhaps the most interesting epidemiological studies conducted during the 1918–1919 pandemic were the human experiments conducted by the Public Health Service and the U.S. Navy under the supervision of Milton Rosenau on Gallops Island, the quarantine station in Boston Harbor, and on Angel Island, its counterpart in San Francisco. The experiment began with 100 volunteers from the Navy who had no history of influenza. Rosenau was the first to report on the experiments conducted at Gallops Island in November and December 1918.69 His first volunteers received first one strain and then several strains of Pfeiffer’s bacillus by spray and swab into their noses and throats and then into their eyes. When that procedure failed to produce disease, others were inoculated with mixtures of other organisms isolated from the throats and noses of influenza patients. Next, some volunteers received injections of blood from influenza patients. Finally, 13 of the volunteers were taken into an influenza ward and exposed to 10 influenza patients each. Each volunteer was to shake hands with each patient, to talk with him at close range, and to permit him to cough directly into his face. None of the volunteers in these experiments developed influenza. Rosenau was clearly puzzled, and he cautioned against drawing conclusions from negative results. He ended his article in JAMA with a telling acknowledgement: “We entered the outbreak with a notion that we knew the cause of the disease, and were quite sure we knew how it was transmitted from person to person. Perhaps, if we have learned anything, it is that we are not quite sure what we know about the disease.”69 (p. 313)”

The Germ Theory of Disease remains unproven.

Wikipedia, what are the systems of the human body ?

Thanks but you left out the most important one that all vertebrates possess, the endocannabinoid system. Fail

<No, they didn't! >> - BK>

"The ECS is the primary homeostatic regulatory system of the body. It can readily be viewed as the body’s internal adaptogenic system, constantly working to maintain a vast range of functions in equilibrium. Endocannabinoids broadly work as neuromodulators and, as such, they regulate a wide scope of physiological processes – from fertility to pain. Some of the better-known functions impacted by the ECS are as follows:

Science is about discovery.

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 04, 2020, 06:31:54 AM »
No, Igs, that's not what this is about.

This is about the conspiracy that vaccines serve the purpose to reprogram the genetics of humans to enslave us all.

If you want to read about this, go to Facebook and follow the most lunatic fringe accounts. The whole internet is riddled with this. This is a scientifically oriented forum. Lunatic fringe is not the scope of this forum.

OK, that's one of the bullshit conspiracy theories, thanks for info.

I think that most would come to the same conclusion and the rest is helplessly lost so why not let it stand. Deleting stuff only fuels the wrong and doesn't damage mature thinkers at all, simply makes us laugh.

However that may be, you have to discuss this with your fellow mods, not my call, just my two cents.


I love humiliating CC deniers when I get the chance - so much fun, like asking them why Venus is hotter than Mercury.

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 04, 2020, 06:27:34 AM »
If there is ever a place to post anything (barring the illegal) it should be here on the OTOT thread.

What was the actual conspiracy site? Was the content so bad we needed to be protected? The paper is pretty interesting but i have no idea how any conspiracy site would spin that and i am sort of curious. I think i would survive reading some conspiracy take on it and if there was some clear BS in it i would comment on that but now i can´t.

This annoys me more then whatever the conspiracy site can come up with.

People are responsible for what they post. I think it is ok to add reminders that the quoted site is 100% Koch funded if that is the case or whatever applies but i prefer to make my own judgements.

This is a recent comprehensive article that asserts the current medical paradigm is incorrect

"Why Everything You Learned About Viruses is WRONG"
Published by GreenMedInfo by founder Sayer Ji

< Mod notice:
This is a faith healer/quack site:

Ji wants to vindicate ancient healing traditions by showing people that there are recent scientific studies that confirm this ancestral knowledge. He says that food is information that we put in our body and it interacts with our genes. When we alter this information, we’re introducing “bad information” into our body, which means our proteins get misfolded and we get ill, he claims. He thinks “heroic doses” of medication and nutraceuticals is the wrong approach; we need daily “culinary doses”. And he thinks that his god made things in nature look like what they are meant to heal, so that a walnut looks like the brain because it’s meant to help our brain function.


The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 04, 2020, 06:20:40 AM »
COVID19 PCR Tests are Scientifically Meaningless

Though the whole world relies on RT-PCR to “diagnose” Sars-Cov-2 infection, the science is clear: they are not fit for purpose



<Mod notice:
Torsten Engelbrecht and Konstantin Demeter, the authors of this 'paper' are known German conspiracy theorists. They also write for the German website Rubikon, a known conspiracy site.

Link >>


The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 04, 2020, 04:57:46 AM »
Neven's policy has always been to avoid links to denier sites from the ASIF, both so as not to lead the readers astray, and more importantly to avoid giving the deniers financial gain by increasing clicks and search engine placements.

And i 100% agree with this. Those people are malicious and platforming them makes us complicitous. Nothing i can live with, to be honest.

There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 04, 2020, 04:55:49 AM »
"The reliability of COVID-19 tests is uncertain due to the limited evidence base"

" The extent to which a positive PCR result correlates with the infectious state of an individual is still being determined"

That is correct. A PCR test being positive doesn't mean the patient is infectious. There are also false negatives. Has nothing to do with the message of this so-called doctor though.

So the tests used to determine the extent of restrictions and lockdowns that are affecting billions of people around the world are inaccurate and that doesn't bother you ?

Kary Mullis, who received the Nobel Prize for inventing the PCR test, said that the test was not suitable as a diagnostic tool because it does not quantify a virus load.

Kary Mullis died 7 August 2019.

Event 201
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.

Also on October 18 2019 the opening ceremony of the World Military Games in Wuhan China

In July 2019, the citizens of Wuhan protested about the toxic air pollution that was making them sick

China tops WHO list for deadly outdoor air pollution
More than 1 million people died from dirty air in one year, according to World Health Organisation

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 03, 2020, 08:10:24 AM »
Australian Government

Department of Health

Therapeutic Goods Administration :-

COVID-19 testing in Australia - information for health professionals

"The reliability of COVID-19 tests is uncertain due to the limited evidence base"

" The extent to which a positive PCR result correlates with the infectious state of an individual is still being determined"

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 03, 2020, 07:54:45 AM »

Andy Kaufman, M.D. is a natural healing consultant, inventor, public speaker, forensic psychiatrist, and expert witness. He completed his psychiatric training at Duke University Medical Center after graduating from the Medical University of South Carolina, and has a B.S. from M.I.T. in Molecular Biology. He has conducted and published original research and lectured, supervised, and mentored medical students, residents, and fellows in all psychiatric specialties. He has been qualified as an expert witness in local, state, and federal courts. He has held leadership positions in academic medicine and professional organizations. He ran a start-up company to develop a medical device he invented and patented.

Faculty Positions
Clinical Assistant Professor of Psychiatry, SUNY Upstate Medical University
Vice President, Psychiatry Faculty Practice Corporation, SUNY Upstate Medical University
Medical Director of Faculty Practice, SUNY Upstate Medical University
Assistant Director, Forensic Psychiatry Fellowship, SUNY Upstate Medical University
Consulting Expert Witness, Syracuse University Law School
Medical University of South Carolina, Doctor of Medicine
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, BS in Biology
American Board of Psychiatry and Neurology Board Certification in Psychiatry and Forensic Psychiatry (2011)
SUNY Upstate Medical University, Fellowship in Forensic Psychiatry
Duke University School of Medicine, Resident in Psychiatry
Knoll JL and Kaufman AR. Suicide in Correctional Settings: Epidemiology, Risk Assessment, and Prevention. Principles and Practice of Forensic Psychiatry edited by Richard Rosner, 3rd edition, 2017.
Way BB, Kaufman AR, Knoll JL, Chlebowski, S: Suicidal Ideation among Inmate-Patients in State Prison: Prevalence, Reluctance to Report, and Treatment Preferences. Behavioral Science and the Law, 31(2): 230-8, 2013.
Kaufman AR, Way BB, Suardi E: Forty Years after Jackson v. Indiana. States’ Compliance with “Reasonable Period of Time” Ruling. Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 40:261-5, 2012.
Kaufman AR, Knoll JL, Way BB, Leonard C, Widroff J: Survey of Forensic Mental Health Experts on Pro Se Competence After Indiana v. Edwards: Towards an Evidence-Based Pro Se Competency Standard. Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 39:565-70, 2011.
Knoll JL, Leonard C, Kaufman AR, Way BB: A Pilot Survey of Trial Court Judges’ Opinions on Pro Se Competence after Indiana v. Edwards. Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 38:536-9, 2010.
Kaufman AR, Way B: North Carolina Resident Psychiatrists Knowledge of the Commitment Statutes: Do They Stray from the Legal Standard in the Hypothetical Application of Involuntary Commitment Criteria? Psychiatric Quarterly, 2010; 81(4): p.363.
Kaufman, AR: More on DSM-5: Will “Cross-Cutting” Butcher Clinical Psychiatry. Correctional Mental Health Report, 2010; 12(2): p. 21.
Kaufman AR: Are Psychiatrists Lexa-Professionals? Correctional Mental Health Report, 2010; 11(5): p. 71
Kaufman AR: Should We Use Law Enforcement for Emergency Transportation of People With Mental Illness? American Journal of Psychiatry 2007; 164(3): Residents’ Journal p. 3

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:30:33 AM »
Trump is part of the Deep State that he is supposedly fighting against.

<removed link to conspiracy site - BK>

Conserved and host-specific features of influenza virion architecture

<removed link to conspiracy video - BK>

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 01, 2020, 05:46:21 AM »
I am on moderation because I questioned the scientifically bankrupt Germ Theory of Disease espoused by the fraudulent Pasteur who was favourved by the elite over the greatest scientist of all time Antoine Bechamp (Terrain Theory)

Bechamp or Pastuer ? A Lost Chapter in the History of Biology.

Only 2% of our DNA is human - we are holobionts hosting trillions of micro-organisms - we have 320,000 endogenous viruses which our bodies use for healing events -


I believe AI has affected me personally.

Several Bookmaker Companies have banned/restricted my betting probably from patterns picked up by AI.

I'm only semi-professional, so there wasn't really significant money involved.

Betting Companies are basically technology companies.

Science / Re: Magnitude of future warming
« on: June 18, 2020, 03:24:56 AM »
In my opinion based on following climate change since the 70s is that ECS, like the uncertainty of the preindustrial baseline, is a tool for obfuscation.

Why the doubling of co2, what is magical about that standard ?

After Copenhagen, I became a raging conspiracy theorist, leading me to discover many inconvenient truths in many areas besides CC.

But overall the momentum of industrial civilisation just overwhelms everything.

So I am a rational doomist because the situation is irreversible.

Anecdotally we have had clear unusually chilly nights in southern Australia, consistent with the effect of less aerosols in the atmosphere.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 08, 2020, 01:57:25 AM »
This is still my favorite visual of climate change.
Large online version

Click to play

Add 1750 to 1850-1900 and we probably have already breached 1.5C

PS We were heading into a cool phase so the actual forcing is substantially higher.

The rest / Re: Cannabis and Hemp
« on: June 04, 2020, 01:45:01 PM »
The CB1 Receptor and the Evolution of Humanity, Past, Present and Future

Dr. Robert J. Melamede talks about the "physics of life"

The rest / Re: Cannabis and Hemp
« on: June 04, 2020, 09:31:01 AM »

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 01, 2020, 06:48:46 AM »
Who burnt down the police station in Minneapolis ?

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: May 30, 2020, 03:13:01 PM »
Whatever the answers to those questions are, 99.9% of the protesters are not arsonists. Period. They have every right to be outraged.

Protests are warranted but may be hijacked to usher in military intervention in civil society.

The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: May 30, 2020, 09:45:22 AM »
Who burnt down the police station ?
Is there any vision ?
Was it protestors or agents provocateur ?

Consequences / Re: Temperature signals from Covid-19
« on: May 27, 2020, 06:42:36 AM »
The lessening of aerosol masking leads to less clouds which causes higher temps during the day and lower temps at night.

Do the night's decrease temp partially cancel the higher day temps ?

Giving us a misleading picture.

Temperatures are read 4 times per 24 hours at both GFS and CSFR, so we cover both day and night temps.
Do you want to claim that the cooling effect from the diminished aerosols during nighttime is stronger, than the warming effect during daytime?
What's the theory behind that?

Just wanted to know if possible extra night coldness affects the mean temp and if it is relevant to the discussion.

Consequences / Re: Temperature signals from Covid-19
« on: May 27, 2020, 02:40:35 AM »
The lessening of aerosol masking leads to less clouds which causes higher temps during the day and lower temps at night.

Do the night's decrease temp partially cancel the higher day temps ?

Giving us a misleading picture.


People aren’t scared enough about global warming. It is, as Wallace-Wells says, worse than people think – and though it may not be as bad as his picture, the trend so far points in that direction.”

It is much worse than Wallace-Wells, so this article is guilty of hopium.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: April 28, 2020, 01:23:53 AM »
March 2020 surface air temperature anomaly seems to have been 1.18C.  Only behind 2016.

Using the 1890-1910 baseline, the March anomaly is 1.51 C

Industrialisation started in 1750, so we are already in the dangerzone.

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 13, 2020, 03:10:41 AM »
Kay Mullis, Nobel winner for his invention of the PCR, advised that PCR was a qualitative rather than a quantitative test.

This explains the high number of asymptomatic people identified, because of trivial amounts of virus being detected that is not enough to cause disease.

The data is not reliable.

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: April 10, 2020, 06:45:42 AM »
Is the data reliable ?

This from the Australian Government :-

"The reliability of COVID-19 tests is uncertain due to the limited evidence base."

"The extent to which a positive PCR result correlates with the infectious state of an individual is still being determined"

"Human coronaviruses circulate frequently every year and cause a common cold type illness. Cross reaction with antibodies formed by current and past exposure to seasonal human coronavirus infections can cause false-positive results. In addition, the false-negative rate associated with these lateral flow devices is not known."

"COVID-19 is an emerging viral infectious disease. There is limited evidence available to assess the accuracy and clinical utility of available COVID-19 tests."

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 09, 2020, 12:39:24 PM »

New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.

Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness.

Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: April 09, 2020, 02:31:41 AM »
5G Towers EFFECT Bees, Birds, Trees & PEOPLE | FACT or FICTION ???

"Charles Malki, Biologist & Plant Expert for has an educated discussion with Judy Frankel of on the several studies on 5G (5th Generation) Cellphone Towers, and the approximately 10x more powerful (than the 4G Cell Tower) electromagnetic fields (EMF), and its effects on bees, birds, plants & people."

"Conversation between the famous English physicist Barrie Trower and Sir Julian Rose . Barrie Trower is a former British Navy officer who has collaborated with the ... ... British Navy officer who has collaborated with the British Secret Service ."

Policy and solutions / Re: Lessons from COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:02:49 AM »
Looking at the statistics, the lesson is if you are healthy you are unlikely to be affected.

Lesson for governments is to focus on wellness and preventative medicine emphasizing nutrition.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: March 29, 2020, 08:42:05 AM »
Did 2012 have a strong positive AO like 2020 had this year ?

Winter 2011-12 was the fourth-warmest on record and spring 2012 had ENSO-neutral conditions, which are anticipated this year. Widespread warmer-than-average temperatures were recorded in the Lower 48 that spring. March 2012 was the warmest March on record and numerous records were broken east of the Rockies.

So what does all this mean for this year?

Spring 2020 Outlook
Computer models indicate above-average temperatures are likely for most of the Lower 48 from March through May.

The positive AO and the strong polar vortex will likely persist into March, which will limit the chances for prolonged cold in the contiguous U.S.

This forecast information, combined with past very warm winters being followed by warmer-than-average springs, suggest that a warm spring is likely ahead.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: March 27, 2020, 12:06:31 AM »
Did 2012 have a strong positive AO like 2020 had this year ?

Per the linked NASA website, the global January 2020 LOTI Anomaly vs 1951-1980 was 1.17oC, and the first attached image give the zonal mean LOTI anomaly vs 1951-1980 for January 2020; which makes me wonder what the people living near 60o north latitude (like Oslo, Norway) will experience during January 2050:


The second attached image (from the same website) gives the January 2020 LOTI Anomaly vs 1951-1980; which shows that not only are the people living near Oslo, Norway, effected but also almost all of Siberia (with its extensive permafrost regions) and much of Canada near Hudson Bay (with its extensive sea ice area).


For those who forgot, to convert 1951-1980 temp departures to pre-industrial add: + 0.256 Celsius (so 1.17C with a 1951-1980 baseline converts to +1.426C vs pre-industrial)

Do you use 1750 baseline ?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 30, 2020, 05:17:56 AM »
Hundreds of millions of Chinese are vulnerable to disease because they are breathing in toxic air.

That's why there are so many cases in China.

Wuhan residents have been protesting vigorously to keep their govt to promises to clean the air.

The WHO said the most vulnerable were people with weakened immune systems,

I have tasted the air in China and advised my son to find a cleaner city or return to Australia.

After getting bronchitis he returned home and recovered.

Science / Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
« on: January 27, 2020, 10:20:39 AM »
Will CO2 emissions in 2020 break the record just set in 2019 which broke the record set in 2018?

I'm thinking yes unless the economy collapses.

Then we will lose the aerosol masking effect leading to an unprecedented rapid increase in temperature and unleashing amplifying feedback loops.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 27, 2020, 10:14:30 AM »
Just to put things in perspective -

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths from flu."

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: December 16, 2019, 11:55:08 PM »
Is that the true reason behind Brexit?
Yep. Little Xenophobic Englanders rule, OK?

Coincidence there was a terror event during the election campaign.

The linked reference provides evidence that CMIP5 model projections 'have underestimated the cooling effect that aerosol particles have had on climate in recent decades"; which 'suggests that the models are not sensitive enough to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere'.  In other words, this reference finds that the CMIP5 models (as a group) underestimated both TCR & ECS:

Trude Storelvmo et al. (29 August 2018), "Lethargic response to aerosol emissions in current climate models", Geophysical Research Letters,

The global temperature trend observed over the last century is largely the result of two opposing effects – cooling from aerosol particles and greenhouse gas (GHG) warming. While the effect of increasing GHG concentrations on Earth's radiation budget is well‐constrained, that due to anthropogenic aerosols is not, partly due to a lack of observations. However, long‐term surface measurements of changes in downward solar radiation (SDSR), an often‐used proxy for aerosol radiative impact, are available worldwide over the last half‐century. We compare SDSR changes from ∼1,400 stations to those from the CMIP5 global climate simulations over the period 1961‐2005. The observed SDSR shows a strong early downward trend followed by a weaker trend‐reversal, broadly consistent with historical aerosol emissions. However, despite considerable changes to known aerosol emissions over time, the models show negligible SDSR trends, revealing a lethargic response to aerosol emissions, and casting doubt on the accuracy of their future climate projections.

Plain Language Summary

Observations of incoming solar radiation, as measured at approximately 1400 surface stations worldwide, show a strong downward trend from the 1960s to the 1980s, followed by a weaker trend reversal thereafter. These trends are thought to be due to changes in the amount of aerosol particles in the atmosphere, and we find support for that here in the temporal evolution of anthropogenic aerosol emissions. This is expected because aerosol particles reflect and/or absorb sunlight back to space, and have a net cooling effect on Earth's climate. However, we find that the current generation of climate models simulate negligible solar radiation trends over the last half‐century, suggesting that they have underestimated the cooling effect that aerosol particles have had on climate in recent decades. Despite this, climate models tend to reproduce surface air temperature over the time period in question reasonably well. This, in turn, suggests that the models are not sensitive enough to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, with important implications for their ability to simulate future climate.

Compensatary error - amazing.

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: December 05, 2019, 05:15:29 AM »
    With Arctic albedo already increasing radiative forcing by about 25% of the GHG influence (forget the source, could look it up if somebody really needs it), consider how much MORE albedo impact would arise from July being "largely ice free".  Remember, if July (a high solar gain month in it's own right) has hugely reduced Extent by 2048, then June must also have much lower Extent than at present. Wide expanses of open Arctic Ocean in June and July = Albedo nightmare.

    That makes 2050 look like end of the line for a planet any of us would recognize.  If Jennifer Francis et al. are even half-right about weather impacts of Arctic warming and ASI decline at 2010-2019 levels, the effects by 2040-50 would be off the charts.

    I believe that with collective humanity ingenuity just about anything is possible.  But the performance to date for human wisdom with regard to climate management does not make for an optimistic outlook.  By the ASI situation alone (ignoring the many other vectors), it looks like human civilization could be in dire straits by, or well before, 2050 unless things start changing radically and soon.  So let's stop using 2100 as the benchmark and focus on how humans can get past 2050.

2020 30 year bonds mature in 2050.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: December 04, 2019, 12:38:35 AM »
Gaia + BAU = GBaia !

I thought scientific uncertainty was covered by the Precautionary Principle, a tenet of Environmental Law.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 5