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Messages - kassy

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 01, 2021, 08:35:06 PM »
The Surprising Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Changing the way emissions are tallied may help litigators focus on the worst climate offenders and shape mitigation.

A belching coal plant is easy to identify as a probable greenhouse gas polluter. Coal emissions are point source pollution—like a chemical spill in a stream, the pollution can be traced back to a specific activity at a precise place.

But is measuring the carbon produced at a power plant the best way to monitor emissions? A team of scientists recently took a different approach to estimating carbon dioxide: the bottleneck method. Instead of considering the pollution emitted only at the end use, burning phase of fossil fuel use, the researchers considered all phases: mining, transport, refining, and burning.

Their study identified the worst emissions offenders, and the results were surprising: oil and gas pipelines. The researchers noted that the companies enabling greenhouse gases emissions are most at risk of climate mitigation lawsuits.

Tallying Emissions
The new study, published in Energies, introduces the bottleneck method. “Most of the work that’s been done in this area in the past is looking at kind of end use because that’s where most of the emissions occur,” said Joshua Pearce, a materials and electrical engineering professor at Michigan Technological University and coauthor of the new study.

Using the bottleneck method, all emissions a facility enables are considered in carbon tallies, including extraction, transport, and end use. “Bottlenecks are the limiting factor for a total amount of emissions,” said Pearce.

“As more science provides unquestionable evidence that certain facilities are creating economic harm to others,” Pearce said, the bottleneck approach could identify the biggest offenders. It’s this carbon parsing that will likely become more important in climate mitigation efforts.

The researchers collected publicly available data for the amount of fuel and the emissions caused by those fuels from coal, oil, and natural gas. They also gathered emissions data from the entire life cycle of the fuel, including extraction, transport, and end use.

Natural Gas Pipelines

The bottleneck analysis showed that 9 of the top 10 carbon polluters were oil and gas pipelines (47% and 44%, respectively), while a coal mine took the remaining spot in the top rankings. In comparison, point source methods revealed that the top 10 polluters were oil pipelines (eight spots) and coal mines.
The top nine emitters were unexpected, said Pearce, adding he was especially surprised “that natural gas showed up at all.”

Pearce noted that natural gas has lower emissions per unit energy than coal, so it can seem like a good solution—a bridge fuel—for reducing carbon. “But our study showed that when you step away from point source emissions and go to the bottleneck, it turns out that natural gas pipelines are some of the worst offenders,” said Pearce. “They’re allowing the most carbon emissions.”

and more on:
https://eos.org/articles/the-surprising-source-of-greenhouse-gas-emissions

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 28, 2021, 09:30:40 PM »
That is not relevant because it is not actually about rhetorics or you.

Short verson: stay on topic.

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: February 28, 2021, 09:09:31 PM »
AGW solutions are complicated like not burning to much oil or coal. Not shooting around rockets you do not need might also help.

4
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: February 28, 2021, 09:06:24 PM »
FWIW that ice collapse is always one of those things that was always so straight forward. You just need enough surface and bathymetry shows it will be there. Timing is a bit more complicated but they only way to stop it is to stop our planetary warming push.

Way way back in the nineties the Arctic ice was not really supposed to fail before 2040 and Antarctica would be a problem much later but there is quite a lot going on already.

I would say that this should be included but technically they should mostly manifest after ACI collapse (at least in theory at least the majority of them).

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: February 28, 2021, 08:34:21 PM »
The whole idea of using rockets in the atmosphere is sort of stupid. Just like putting redundant crap in space. Yeah i get why every nation with rockets wants their own GPS but if too many billionaires put up their own networks it is going to get crowded and then messy.

None of that BS is going to help the planet. You are very much in love with some tech dream but that is not relevant to AGW. No we can´t use rockets for this. Plus they are neither ships or boats.


6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 28, 2021, 07:25:10 PM »
Nigeria has a quite different demographic build up and probably more pressing issues.

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 28, 2021, 07:22:59 PM »
Not watched the video so i don´t know if it is more likely that vaccine escape happens mainly in the vulnerable...

There's also a thread on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/bealelab/status/1364880261037621249

Discussed from ~ 15 minutes in the video. A "simple model" and a suggestion for further work rather than the be all and end all. Caveats aside:

Quote
To maximise your chances of generating a vaccine escape just vaccinate the vulnerable...

Just a general note for videos. It is better to include a timestamp for the most relevant part. If that is ok i might watch the video from the start. (This is just a general note, not about this one per se).

If you look at the simple argument and if you would want to prevent vaccine escape you would need to hoard vaccines until you can cover all in a short time frame. But if you do that as the UK there would still be plenty of places where vaccine escape might happen.

When a vaccine is delivered quicker then the normal immunity via infections it should actually bring down the totals because both natural disease and the vaccine aim for the same thing.

The vaccines are always added pressure on the natural progression.

8
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: February 28, 2021, 06:47:36 PM »
Since there is no time to waste i would propose the following:

1) Of all known problems we always expected Arctic Sea Ice to fail first so we should focus on that.
This makes sense because it interacts with AMOC, Greenland and Siberia (and arguably the atmosphere at large).

2) Then we look at historical constraints (paleo is mid thirties). It sort of depends on the time line but more arctic missions, better satellite replacement and dedicated super computers would all have helped.

3) But probably there would be some heated discussion and then you have to work outside of the system. Via some means we need to drive home the point that with all these connected systems we need to stay below the first trigger point.

The larger fight is the authority of the cardinal. He demands data while ignoring that pollution cost about 8 million deaths per year. Many western consumers don´t feel this and thus are happy to support this system. And it is hard to see the problem. We added more then 1% to the planet heat engine. Changing long term patterns are evident where i am (in the Netherlands) but much less in other places.

In a general way people just think someone will work it out because someone always did (green revolution, discovered CFCs just in time etc) but here we are running out of time.




9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 28, 2021, 05:41:19 PM »
Why are you underplaying Covid?
Why are you overplaying Covid?

The questions exist side by side.

Is there a way to argue away the influences of pollution, demographics and horrid fabric food on deaths. Seems hard to me.

So then the next question arises: why does this argument annoy people so much? It is the virus that evil strange thing that is doing us in, it can not possibly be us?

We could learn from Covid that this sort of fall out of our current hyper capitalism is expected but that lesson is unwelcome i guess.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: February 28, 2021, 05:13:24 PM »
If you have a floating platform in a sea it would probably be a whole lot easier to add solar and some hydrogen producing factory.


11
Interesting mess the US mail is in. As the article shows it is a case of neglected maintenance more so then Covid but of course it is a bigger problem with the current situation.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 27, 2021, 08:24:24 PM »
Five replies in a row is a bit much. 1270 and 1271 are on last page or the other thread recently so no need to repeat them and 1269 while true can probably be skipped too.

13
The rest / Re: Consequences of using plastics
« on: February 27, 2021, 03:53:36 PM »
Potentially harmful chemicals found in plastic toys

It has long been known that several chemicals used in plastic toys in different parts of the world can be harmful to human health. However, it is difficult for parents to figure out how to avoid plastic toys containing chemicals that may cause possible health risks to their children.
...

Researchers from DTU and the University of Michigan together with UN Environment have looked into this important issue, analyzed data on chemical functions and amounts found in plastic toys, and quantified related children exposure and potential health risks. They ranked the chemicals according to their health risk and compared these results with existing priority substances lists from around the world. The study has been published with open access in the journal Environment International.

"Out of 419 chemicals found in hard, soft and foam plastic materials used in children toys, we identified 126 substances that can potentially harm children's health either via cancer or non-cancer effects, including 31 plasticizers, 18 flame retardants, and 8 fragrances. Being harmful in our study means that for these chemicals, estimated exposure doses exceed regulatory Reference Doses (RfD) or cancer risks exceed regulatory risk thresholds. These substances should be prioritized for phase-out in toy materials and replaced with safer and more sustainable alternatives," says Peter Fantke, Professor at DTU Management and the study's principle investigator.

...

The researchers find that children in Western countries have on average about 18 kilograms of plastic toys, which underlines the large amounts of plastic that children are surrounded by on a daily basis.

...

Chemicals that the researchers identified to be of possible concern for children's health include, for example, widely known phthalates and brominated flame retardants but also the two plasticizers butyrate TXIB and citrate ATBC, which are used as alternatives to some regulated phthalates.

"These alternatives showed indications for high non-cancer risk potentials in exposed children and should be further assessed to avoid 'regrettable substitutions', where one harmful chemical is replaced with a similarly harmful alternative. Overall, soft plastics cause higher exposure to certain harmful chemicals, and inhalation exposure dominates overall children exposure, because children potentially inhale chemicals diffusing out of all toys in the room, while usually only touching one toy at the time," Peter Fantke explains.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210222124552.htm

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: February 27, 2021, 03:46:05 PM »
New houses should not be connected but there is a delay from the planning stage. In 2018 about 10% build that year still had them.

https://www.nu.nl/economie/6118912/tienduizenden-extra-technici-gezocht-klimaatdoelen-lijken-anders-onhaalbaar.html

The transition also needs an extra 23000 to 28000 extra technically skilled workers.

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 27, 2021, 03:29:48 PM »
In the Netherlands we also do vulnerable groups first. The prime concern is bringing down the amount of deaths and IC cases. Of course this also happens in a situation where we keep having the evening clock, closures, social distancing and very limited visiting.

Over time AZ should start catching up with vaccine deliveries and more should come available.

Not watched the video so i don´t know if it is more likely that vaccine escape happens mainly in the vulnerable with a compromised immune system but we we have also immunized all HCW that work with them that should add an extra ring of protection.

Now if they mean that vaccine escape happens as strains mutate going around in the public then the problem is simply that there are not enough vaccines to immunize all of them at this point in time.

Also you could tailor one countries policy to minimalize vaccine escape but it might just happen in one of those countries were they have hardly any access to vaccines for now.

So i think this is the best way to do it.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands
« on: February 26, 2021, 10:20:48 PM »
Some findings from our pilot to make homes gas free.

At this early stage there are some areas where homeowners can get subsidies to get of the gas net. You can choose not to participate either because you do not want to or because you want to but the costs don´t add up.

https://www.nu.nl/wonen/6118382/aardgasvrij-maken-van-proefwijken-legt-volgens-planbureau-knelpunten-bloot.html

The first pilot projects for making homes gas free revealed some structural problems which made it harder to speed up the procees according to the PBL (Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving or Planning Bureau for the Environment where environment is the human one).

The way we do it now the process needs a lot of detailed tailoring. Every house is different.
There are no standards for cost sharing and it is also unclear who is responsible.

2050 should be the end date for gas warmed houses.
So by 2030 the first 1,5 million of houses should be disconnected.
Until may 2020 8000 houses were decoupled. Targets should be 50k this year and 200k per year in 10 years time.

TNO assumes targets will not be met unless there is more national coordination. Processes are hindered by European rules for aquisition and the cities are waiting for a new law on Warmth which should help build up new types of grids.

Practical details:
Houses and wishes of occupants differ.
Every house is a case of it´s own. Even if the houses were similar initially they might end up different to what people end up doing to them.
´
In the current set up just one home owner who is not interested makes things more expensive but then agian that is obvious and only a result of the stage we are in.

One practical detail: it is easier to change naighbourhoods with lots of corporation houses (rentals).

There is a flaw in costs. Gas is too cheap because the damage is not priced in. Because it is artificially cheap it also makes the cost balance on decoupled homes look worse.

TNO came up with another plan to accelarate the program. While the cabinet aimed for changes per neighbourhood controlled by cities (who determine the order) it would make more sense to look at all types of houses build the same way. This mostly comes down to the time the houses were build but it is a much better way to coordinate it. If you do this nationally it is also clearer for home owners.

About 80 to 90% of dutch homes can be grouped like this. If you are upgrading about 15,000 houses at the same time you could even make money on it.

https://www.nu.nl/wonen/6118382/aardgasvrij-maken-van-proefwijken-legt-volgens-planbureau-knelpunten-bloot.html

In general we need to plan this on a national scale, in fact we need to do a lot of this on a national scale like changing the grid and deciding what we build where. That should be obvious but it is contrary to the trend enabled by 10 years of liberalist vandalism.

17
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: February 26, 2021, 03:13:44 PM »
How Rivers in the Sky Melted Antarctic Ice

A few years ago, a giant hole opened up in the Antarctic sea ice, capturing attention around the world. Not since the 1970s had such a chasm appeared in the mid-ocean ice of the Weddell Sea.

Scientists showed in previous research that ocean processes and cyclones contributed to the hole, called a polynya. But a recent study has revealed a new piece of the puzzle: atmospheric rivers.

Most polynyas in the Southern Ocean occur along Antarctica’s coast. These temporary ice-free zones are oases for penguins, seals, and other Antarctic wildlife. The Weddell polynya, however, formed much farther from shore.

Though they are just massive holes in the ice, polynyas can affect regional and global climates. Understanding the factors that contribute to their creation—especially of an anomalous open-ocean polynya like the large Weddell polynya—can then lead to more accurate predictions of their behavior in a warming climate, the study says.

...

Looking back at historical events, Francis and her team found that atmospheric rivers were also associated with the last big polynya in the Weddell Sea, in 1973–1974, and with another smaller hole in 2016.

...

Atmospheric conditions may even enhance the oceanic processes involved in polynya formation. The blanket of snow the atmospheric rivers delivered, for instance, may have acted as an insulator, trapping heat from the ocean and magnifying the ice melt from below, explains Ethan Campbell, a graduate student at the University of Washington, who has studied the Weddell polynya.

https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/how-rivers-in-the-sky-melted-antarctic-ice/

18
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: February 26, 2021, 03:11:14 PM »
“Stark warning”: Combating ecosystem collapse from the tropics to the Antarctic
Eminent scientists warn that key ecosystems around Australia and Antarctica are collapsing, and propose a three-step framework to combat irreversible global damage.

Their report, authored by 38 Australian, UK and US scientists from universities and government agencies, is published today in the international journal Global Change Biology.  Researchers say I heralds a stark warning for ecosystem collapse worldwide, if action if not taken urgently.

Lead author, Dr Dana Bergstrom from the Australian Antarctic Division, said that the project emerged from a conference inspired by her ecological research in polar environments.

“I was seeing unbelievably rapid, widespread dieback in the alpine tundra of World Heritage-listed Macquarie Island and started wondering if this was happening elsewhere,” Dr Bergstrom said.

“With my colleagues from the Australian Antarctic Division and the University of Queensland we organised a national conference and workshop on ‘Ecological Surprises and Rapid Collapse of Ecosystems in a Changing World’, with support from the Australian Academy of Sciences.”

The resulting paper and extensive case studies examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 marine and terrestrial ecosystems across all Australian states, spanning 58° of latitude from coral reefs to Antarctica. Findings include:

Ecosystem collapse (defined as potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function) is occurring now in 19 case studies. This conclusion is supported by empirical evidence, rather than modelled predictions.

No ecosystems have collapsed across their entire range, but for all case studies there is evidence of local collapse.

The 19 ecosystems include the Great Barrier Reef, mangroves in the Gulf of Carpentaria, the Mediterranean forests and woodlands, the arid zone of central Australia, Shark Bay seagrass beds in Western Australia, Great Southern Reef kelp forests, Gondwanan conifer forests of Tasmania, Mountain Ash forest in Victoria, and moss beds of East Antarctica.

Drivers of ecosystem collapse are pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, categorised as chronic ‘presses’ (eg. changes in temperature and precipitation, land clearing) or acute ‘pulses’ (eg. heatwaves, storms, fires and pollution after storms).

http://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/research/title_845118_en.html

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: February 26, 2021, 03:05:33 PM »
New treaty to ban fishing in fishless Central Arctic

...

Pending final ratification, an international accord that also bans fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean will likely take effect later this year. A decade since negotiations began, the treaty – the Central Arctic Ocean Fishing Agreement – may give scientists breathing space to study the rapidly-evolving conditions in the world’s least-trafficked ocean. Fisheries experts hope that if fishing is eventually permitted, it will be managed rationally and sustainably. A disastrous frenzy of unregulated fishing in the 1980s that ruined an adjacent productive fishery, in the Bering Sea, gave ammunition to the agreement’s supporters. The new treaty is a rare international action to “‘prevent the fire’ rather than to ‘extinguish the fire,'” in the words of a recent paper in Marine Policy.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/02/new-treaty-to-ban-fishing-in-fishless-central-arctic/

20
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Denmark risks not reaching its ambitious goal to cut carbon emissions by 70% by 2030 because it is too reliant on unproven technology, an independent council monitoring the effort said on Friday.

The Nordic country in 2020 set one of the most ambitious and legally binding climate targets in the world - cutting CO2 emissions 70% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, but its government has yet to come up with a detailed plan for how to achieve that target.

With the government’s current initiatives, Denmark is on course to reduce emissions by 7.2 million tonnes in 2030, much below the intended 20 million tonnes, an independent council set up to monitor progress said in a report.

The government said in September that 9-16.5 million tonnes could be cut by using new technologies such as carbon capture storage and using wind turbines to power hydrogen plants, to be used by heavy industry, shipping and air travel.

But progress on these technologies has “not reached a sufficiently high level” to reach the 2030 goal, with two-thirds of advances in these technologies having a “high risk” of not being developed in time to reduce emissions sufficiently, the council said.

“(Our) overall assessment is that the government’s climate plan does not clarify how the 70%-target can be reached,” the report said.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-denmark/denmark-climate-goal-too-reliant-on-unproven-tech-govt-council-says-idUSKBN2AQ1GA?rpc=401&

21
European court forces 33 governments to prove emissions cuts in line with Paris climate accord


The European Court of Human Rights is forcing 33 governments to prove they are cutting emissions in line with the requirements of the 2015 Paris climate accord.

The court also rejected an attempt by those governments to overturn its decision to fast-track a lawsuit filed by six young Portuguese climate activists.

The activists claim the countries’ efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions are inadequate.

The governments asked the court to drop its priority status for the case and hear their argument that the case was inadmissible, the activists’ legal representatives said on Friday.

But the court dismissed the arguments against an urgent hearing and denied their application to defer scrutiny of their climate policies.

The governments now have until May 27 to submit their legal defence.

The activists are aged between 12 and 21.

Four of them live in central Portugal, where bushfires blamed in part on climate change killed more than 100 people in 2017.

The others in Lisbon, a coastal city threatened by rising sea levels.

Scientists say the man-made emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide must end by 2050 at the latest to avoid pushing global temperatures beyond the threshold of 1.5°C set out in the Paris agreement.

Gerry Liston, legal officer at the Global Legal Action Network, an international non-profit organisation assisting the activists, said the group would provide evidence that European governments were failing to adopt enough measures to meet the requirements of the accord.

The organisation starteda crowdfunding campaign to help support the activists.

They filed their claim last September at the court in Strasbourg, France.

On November 30, the court said it required a prompt response from the 33 countries named in the case, a move that activists said gave heart to their cause.

At the time, the court ordered the European countries to respond to the complaint and granted it priority status because of the “importance and urgency of the issues raised".
The countries named in the complaint are the 27 members of the EU, as well as the UK, Switzerland, Norway, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine.

If the activists win, the countries will be legally bound to cut emissions in line with the requirements of the climate accord.

They will also have to address their role in overseas emissions, including those from multinational companies.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/european-court-forces-33-governments-to-prove-emissions-cuts-in-line-with-paris-climate-accord-1.1173684

22
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: February 26, 2021, 02:07:48 PM »
Is it? It is hard to tell because every year is different weather wise. Next time add a link.

23
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: February 26, 2021, 01:51:15 PM »
This happened in Mexico:

In Mexico, 53 local police officers are being questioned over the disappearance of environmental activist Homero Gómez.

Mr Gómez, who manages a butterfly sanctuary in the central town of Ocampo, was last seen on 13 January.

...

Mr Gómez is a tireless campaigner for the conservation of the monarch butterfly and the pine and fir forests where it hibernates.

...

The sanctuary Mr Gómez manages near Ocampo opened in November as part of a strategy to stop illegal logging in the area, which is a key habitat for the monarch butterfly.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-51205114

RIP Mr Gómez.

Ofc the next target is the trees...

Illegal logging in the monarchs wintering rounds rose to almost 13.4 hectares (33 acres), a huge increase from the 0.43 hectare (1 acre) lost to logging last year.

 >:(

24
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: February 25, 2021, 11:48:42 PM »
Our study suggests that value‐laden perspectives impact scientists’ positions even in a seemingly technical controversy.

If only so many professional philosophers weren't so obsessed with trying to be scientists, writing overly technical papers no one is interested in, scientists would have realized this a long, long time ago.
I totally doubt that on it´s own merit because why would they. After all they are mostly not thinking about those details but the ones they are supposed to work out.

Mostly you come into a field and work in it. So usually there is a common bias and a common believe that what you do is relevant. Now we can work out what our human contributions are the end of this century ignoring feedbacks but is that really useful?

Why not use simple first constraints. Work out the maximum temperature rise which allows us to keep the Arctic ice instead of way more uncertain end of century metrics?


25
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2021 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 25, 2021, 10:35:44 PM »
But the one later blip is 2019-2020. Let´s see if it crashes like that year later on (i bet it will).

26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 25, 2021, 10:09:26 PM »
Invisible killer: fossil fuels caused 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, research finds

So that is more then three times as much and happening YOY but that is just the normal fall out of our capitalist culture so we worry about the 2.5m deaths more because they are more likely to touch us?


27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 25, 2021, 03:28:25 PM »
Quote
These mRNS vaccines are very effective. Considering that normal flu vaccines have a real life efficacy of 30-60% only (CDC data), maybe after COVID, vaccinemakers could create mRNS flu vaccines putting an end to the flu season once and for all. Any thoughts?

Yes.

first of a general point. Be careful what you wish for. For allergies there is the hygiene hypothesis which states that growing up with too little contacts with germs leads to allergies because the immune system is understimulated. We evolved with them so if you remove them the body system misses them.

The same would be true for pathogens. Yes you try to knock out the really bad ones but there are many we live with. The common cold is usually just annoying. There is also not one type of virus that causes them but a whole variety which also contributes to partial protection against novel outbreaks like Covid.

Also there is not just one flu so the flu vaccine is a mix aiming for 2 A and 1 B variant or 1 A and 2 B but the choice of which targets to use for the next year must be made in advance so one or more might change resulting in a year where the flu vaccine mix is less efficient.

The age distribution in the 1918 H1N1 pandemic hints at partial protection in some older age groups, those who had survived the earlier version of flu A going round, possibly some H3 type.

Since there are plenty of natural reservoirs for influenza A you might not want a population that is cured of flu.

For Covid just repeating vaccinations should cover it. And then we can go back to a more normal way of life. Don´t let them shove dystopian BS on you. Once *everybody* is vaccinated we can do all the things we did although more masks during winter season (a la Japan) would be a bonus.

28
Science / Re: Trends in Atmospheric N2O
« on: February 24, 2021, 07:11:45 PM »
This research might be useful if we need to change the trend:

Synthesis of a rare metal complex of nitrous oxide opens new vistas for the degradation of a potent greenhouse gas

Like its chemical relative carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and the dominant ozone-depleting substance. Strategies for limiting its emissions and its catalytic decomposition with metals are being developed. A study indicates that nitrous oxide can bind to metals similarly to carbon dioxide, which helps to design new complexes with even stronger bonding. This could allow the use of nitrous oxide in synthetic chemistry.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210222124602.htm

29
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: February 24, 2021, 07:07:13 PM »
Effects of past ice ages more widespread than previously thought

A new study suggests that cold temperatures in unglaciated North America during the last ice age shaped past and modern landscape as far south as Texas and Arkansas.

...

The findings help shape understanding of the earth's "Critical Zone," the relatively thin layer of the planet that extends from where vegetation meets the atmosphere to the lowermost extent of weathered bedrock. "Climate and ecosystems determine how quickly bedrock weathers, how soil is produced, how sediment moves on land and in rivers and other factors that shape the landscape," the authors wrote.

In cold lands, such as Alaska today, frost can crack or weather rock that is at or near the surface of the earth -- making it more porous and turning solid rock into sediment. By applying a frost-weathering model to North America paleoclimate simulations tracking temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum approximately 21,000 years ago, Marshall and her team determined that a large swath of North America, from Oregon to Georgia and as far south as Texas and Arkansas, were likely affected by such periglacial processes.

While permafrost landscapes like the modern Arctic experience frozen ground for two years or more, periglacial landscapes, though not permanently frozen, experience below-freezing temperature for much of the year. Though the evidence of past periglacial processes is easily hidden by vegetation and/or erased by subsequent geological processes, the teams' results suggest that frost weathering (and by extent other periglacial processes) covered an area about 3.5 times larger than the mapped extent of permafrost during the Last Glacial Maximum. This predicted influence of past cold climates on below ground weathering may significantly influence modern landscape attributes that we depend on such as soil thickness and water storage.

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210222192830.htm

30
Science / Re: Paleoclimatology papers
« on: February 24, 2021, 06:49:45 PM »
'Missing ice problem' finally solved
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/02/210223110705.htm

paper:

A new global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years

Abstract
The evolution of past global ice sheets is highly uncertain. One example is the missing ice problem during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26 000-19 000 years before present) – an apparent 8-28 m discrepancy between far-field sea level indicators and modelled sea level from ice sheet reconstructions. In the absence of ice sheet reconstructions, researchers often use marine δ18O proxy records to infer ice volume prior to the LGM. We present a global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years, called PaleoMIST 1.0, constructed independently of far-field sea level and δ18O proxy records. Our reconstruction is compatible with LGM far-field sea-level records without requiring extra ice volume, thus solving the missing ice problem. However, for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (57 000-29 000 years before present) - a pre-LGM period - our reconstruction does not match proxy-based sea level reconstructions, indicating the relationship between marine δ18O and sea level may be more complex than assumed.

...

Recent work in the Hudson Bay region in North America5,6,7 shows that during part of MIS 3, ice-free conditions may have existed. Under this interpretation, the climatic conditions in this area were favorable to allow the growth of forests, with a climate that was potentially analogous to present8. This would indicate that not only was the Laurentide Ice Sheet reduced in size but it also had to be far enough removed from southern Hudson Bay to not strongly affect the climate there. Pico et al.9, through GIA modeling, provided additional support for a reduced extent Laurentide Ice Sheet to explain high relative MIS 3 sea-level indicators along the eastern coast of the United States. The dating methods used for inferring reduced ice sheet extent are near the limit of their reliability during mid-MIS 310. If regarded as minimum ages, then these deposits could be from an earlier ice-free period, such as the last interglacial.

Our reconstruction, called PaleoMIST 1.0 (Paleo Margins, Ice Sheets, and Topography), is created independently of indirect proxy records and far-field sea-level records. This allows us to investigate two of the most contentious problems when assessing past ice sheet configuration and sea level. First, our reconstruction can achieve the sea-level lowstand observed in many far-field locations at the LGM. Since our model adheres to ice physics, geological observations, and local relative sea-level change, we consider it to be a plausible depiction of the ice sheet configuration at the LGM. Therefore, the origin of the long-debated missing ice problem was likely from the starting assumptions on where ice was distributed and the Earth rheology model, while achieving the far-field sea-level lowstand is a nonunique problem. Second, the ice volume in our reconstruction is unable to match the pre-LGM δ18O values based on empirical relationships between ice volume (and therefore sea level) and δ18O but is consistent with some of the sea-level indicators and prior GIA studies6,9,11,12. From our results, we propose that these relationships of δ18O proxy records to sea level and ice volume are not valid.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21469-w

31
Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: February 24, 2021, 06:47:41 PM »
A new global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years
Abstract
The evolution of past global ice sheets is highly uncertain. One example is the missing ice problem during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 26 000-19 000 years before present) – an apparent 8-28 m discrepancy between far-field sea level indicators and modelled sea level from ice sheet reconstructions. In the absence of ice sheet reconstructions, researchers often use marine δ18O proxy records to infer ice volume prior to the LGM. We present a global ice sheet reconstruction for the past 80 000 years, called PaleoMIST 1.0, constructed independently of far-field sea level and δ18O proxy records. Our reconstruction is compatible with LGM far-field sea-level records without requiring extra ice volume, thus solving the missing ice problem. However, for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (57 000-29 000 years before present) - a pre-LGM period - our reconstruction does not match proxy-based sea level reconstructions, indicating the relationship between marine δ18O and sea level may be more complex than assumed.

...

Recent work in the Hudson Bay region in North America5,6,7 shows that during part of MIS 3, ice-free conditions may have existed. Under this interpretation, the climatic conditions in this area were favorable to allow the growth of forests, with a climate that was potentially analogous to present8. This would indicate that not only was the Laurentide Ice Sheet reduced in size but it also had to be far enough removed from southern Hudson Bay to not strongly affect the climate there. Pico et al.9, through GIA modeling, provided additional support for a reduced extent Laurentide Ice Sheet to explain high relative MIS 3 sea-level indicators along the eastern coast of the United States. The dating methods used for inferring reduced ice sheet extent are near the limit of their reliability during mid-MIS 310. If regarded as minimum ages, then these deposits could be from an earlier ice-free period, such as the last interglacial.

Our reconstruction, called PaleoMIST 1.0 (Paleo Margins, Ice Sheets, and Topography), is created independently of indirect proxy records and far-field sea-level records. This allows us to investigate two of the most contentious problems when assessing past ice sheet configuration and sea level. First, our reconstruction can achieve the sea-level lowstand observed in many far-field locations at the LGM. Since our model adheres to ice physics, geological observations, and local relative sea-level change, we consider it to be a plausible depiction of the ice sheet configuration at the LGM. Therefore, the origin of the long-debated missing ice problem was likely from the starting assumptions on where ice was distributed and the Earth rheology model, while achieving the far-field sea-level lowstand is a nonunique problem. Second, the ice volume in our reconstruction is unable to match the pre-LGM δ18O values based on empirical relationships between ice volume (and therefore sea level) and δ18O but is consistent with some of the sea-level indicators and prior GIA studies6,9,11,12. From our results, we propose that these relationships of δ18O proxy records to sea level and ice volume are not valid.


https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21469-w

32
Science / Re: Paleoclimatology papers
« on: February 24, 2021, 06:30:22 PM »
I was sold on Ruddiman's hypotheses long ago.

And the corollary is - as surpsising as it is - that our ancestors' forest fellings saved us from falling into the next ice age. Basically, humans saved themselves from the ice age by killing the forests.

That is the simplified version. From the MIS19 research:
While the Earth would not have had another ice age, in the Holocene absent an early greenhouse gas upturn, a year-round “glacial inception” would have set in parts of Canada and Russia that today are snowed over seasonally.

Glacial Inception in Marine Isotope Stage 19: An Orbital Analog for a Natural Holocene Climate
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-28419-5


33
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: February 24, 2021, 06:16:07 PM »
Why floods and not covid? 1931 is not very recent.

34
Science / Re: Paleoclimatology papers
« on: February 24, 2021, 01:55:41 PM »
The Ruddiman Hypothesis: A Debated Theory Progresses Along Interdisciplinary Lines

In the 1990s marine geologist and current University of Virginia emeritus professor William Ruddiman participated in the summer gatherings of the Cooperative Holocene Mapping Project (COHMAP), which focused on Earth’s conditions beginning around 20,000 years ago during the last glacial period and continuing on into the present interglacial Holocene that began around 12,000 years ago.  In COHMAP, Ruddiman interfaced with pollen experts, climate scientists, and others who specialized on the Holocene. 

Around the time COHMAP wrapped up, a substantial Antarctic ice record detailing past atmosphere composition came out, showing high methane concentrations ten thousand years ago and decreasing steadily for a few thousand years. The record indicated that around 6000 years ago, atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide rebounded and rose in concentration, instead of expectedly declining, given the Earth’s orientation in the solar system – its “orbital” configuration – that shapes the Earth’s temperature and carbon and methane geochemistry.

Shortly thereafter, Antarctic ice core data from earlier interglacials started coming in, and Ruddiman noted that in previous interglacials methane and carbon dioxide trends kept going down. “It seemed obvious to me that this interglacial was anomalous. And the only thing I could think of was that it might be humans.”

Expanding his focus, Ruddiman began developing his hypothesis that it was primarily humans’ forest clearing for agriculture that released carbon dioxide and methane-emitting rice cultivation that accounted for the upward spike in greenhouse gases emissions before modern times.

Some climate scientists, especially geochemists like the well-known Wally Broecker -- objected to Ruddiman’s explanation and claimed that geochemical ocean dynamics caused the unexplained rise in the carbon release. Importantly, Broecker and others claimed that the Stage 11 Interglacial was the best analogue to the Holocene and its comparison did not support Ruddiman’s claim. The objectors also held that before the 19th century, the less numerous humans could not have massively cleared   forests with the carbon impacts  Ruddiman suggested (see here; and for background on debate in media and science, see Richard Blaustein’s 2015 article). 

But in recent years that is what ecologists, botanists, and archaeologists have been establishing – massive and early preindustrial deforestation.  Moreover, archaeobotanists, prominently Dorian Fuller of University College London, have documented the large expansion of rice patty agriculture thousands of years ago, explicating the methane rise. And offering strong support for the Ruddiman hypothesis, a consortium of over 250 archaeologists published a well-noted August 2019 Science article, “Archaeology assessment reveals Earth’s early transformation through land use,” that posited “a planet largely transformed by hunter-gatherers, farmers and pastoralists by 3000 years ago.”  (Stephens et al., 2019)

...

Scientists earlier held that the Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS11) interglacial that occurred from 424,000 and 374,000 years ago as the best Holocene analogue.   Ruddiman disagreed as early as 2005, saying it mismatched with the Holocene’s complete orbital configuration – which is made up of “eccentricity” (the Earth’s rotation around the sun), its “obliquity” (the Earth’s tilt axis); and “precession” (the Earth’s wobble on the axis). In particular, the Stage 11 obliquity does not match up to the Holocene pattern by thousands of years.

Over time, more ice data and glacial-interglacial time refinements came out, and making use of this more precise data, Steve Vavrus and colleagues (2018) underscore a current appreciation  of that Stage 19 is a better analogue than Stage 11. In addition to Vavrus, Ruddiman points to the work of University College London palaeogeographer Polychronis Tzedakis, who, along with Ruddiman was a co-author on Vavrus’s Scientific Reports paper, as particularly important for clarifying the interglacial past and MIS19.

Comparing the MIS19 conditions that would match with 1850 in the Holocene, Vavrus’s 2018 Scientific Reports s paper states: “The mean-annual global temperature falls by 1.27 K while the 5-6 K cooling in the high Arctic is the most pronounced anywhere.” While the Earth would not have had another ice age, in the Holocene absent an early greenhouse gas upturn, a year-round “glacial inception” would have set in parts of Canada and Russia that today are snowed over seasonally.

Ruddiman and Vavrus highlight different but complementary aspects of the Vavrus-led study. “We now have six or seven previous interglaciations to look at the carbon dioxide trends and all of those must have been natural – humans were not an active force on the land,” Ruddiman says. “And none of those previous interglaciations show any kind of rising trend like what is happening in past 7000 years. In my mind, the record from the natural previous interglaciations rules out any natural explanation for the rise in carbon dioxide in this interglaciation.”

Vavrus highlights that the simulation’s outcomes have the same ultimate portent to which his earlier research points. “The argument that a few numbers of humans had a huge impact on the environment – if that is true, and our evidence suggests that it is – is all the more reason to be concerned about the much bigger impact we are having on the present-day environment with so many more people in the world and the amount of carbon emissions much higher in the present,” Vavrus says.

...

The study found that Europe forest cover peaked 8,000-6,000 years ago, and that forests then covered around three quarters of Europe. Shortly after 6,000 years ago, significant deforestation began. The northern Europe needle-leaf forests persisted further in time, while deciduous forests in mid-latitude western Europe were felled in earnest for agriculture early, beginning around 6000 years ago. By 3,000 years ago, quite extensive European deforestation had taken place.  Today, fragmented forests cover less than half of Europe. Woodbridge and colleagues offer that most forest losses occurred before the industrial revolution.

Ruddiman adds that while “Europe’s Lost Forests” covers Europe and is not a global estimate, it is complemented by much research in China with 50,000 archaeological communal sites that point to enormous population increases 8,000 to 4,000 years ago, indicating deforestation. “Since these people are farmers, and we are talking about areas of natural forests, they had to clear those forests to get the sunlight to the land so they could grow crops.” Ruddiman gives a rough estimate that Europe and China combined account for roughly a preindustrial removal of 45% of natural forest.

https://www.globalpolicyjournal.com/blog/24/02/2021/ruddiman-hypothesis-debated-theory-progresses-along-interdisciplinary-lines

Great overview of science supporting Ruddimans Early Anthropocene theory.

35
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: February 23, 2021, 10:14:49 PM »
Pull the Plug by Death but it is an 80ies synth remix. Still works like a charm. Love the bright tones at 1m40.  8)


36
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: February 23, 2021, 09:50:07 PM »
Quote
The CERN scientists found that aerosol particles made of iodic acid could form very quickly — even more quickly than the rates of sulfuric acid mixed with ammonia. In fact, the iodine was such an effective nucleator that the researchers had a difficult time scrubbing it away from the sides of the chamber for subsequent experiments, which required a completely clean environment.

The findings are important for understanding the fundamental chemistry in the atmosphere that underlies cloud processes, Kirkby said, but also as a warning sign: Global iodine emissions have tripled over the past 70 years, and scientists predict that emissions will continue to accelerate as sea ice melts and surface ozone increases. Based on these results, an increase of molecular iodine could lead to more particles for water vapor to condense onto and spiral into a positive feedback loop. “The more the ice melts, the more sea surface is exposed, the more iodine is emitted, the more particles are made, the more clouds form, the faster it all goes,” Kirkby said.

Alpine ice evidence of a three-fold increase in atmospheric iodine deposition since 1950 in Europe due to increasing oceanic emissions

Significance
Our measurements show a tripling of iodine in Alpine ice between 1950 and 1990. A 20th century increase in global iodine emissions has been previously found from model simulations, based on laboratory studies, but, up to now, long-term iodine records exist only in polar regions. These polar records are influenced by sea ice processes, which may obscure global iodine trends. Our results suggest that the increased iodine deposition over the Alps is consistent with increased oceanic iodine emissions coupled with a change in the iodine speciation, both driven by increasing anthropogenic NOx emissions. In turn, the recent increase of iodine emissions implies that iodine-related ozone loss in the troposphere is more active now than in the preindustrial period.

Abstract
Iodine is an important nutrient and a significant sink of tropospheric ozone, a climate-forcing gas and air pollutant. Ozone interacts with seawater iodide, leading to volatile inorganic iodine release that likely represents the largest source of atmospheric iodine. Increasing ozone concentrations since the preindustrial period imply that iodine chemistry and its associated ozone destruction is now substantially more active. However, the lack of historical observations of ozone and iodine means that such estimates rely primarily on model calculations. Here we use seasonally resolved records from an Alpine ice core to investigate 20th century changes in atmospheric iodine. After carefully considering possible postdepositional changes in the ice core record, we conclude that iodine deposition over the Alps increased by at least a factor of 3 from 1950 to the 1990s in the summer months, with smaller increases during the winter months. We reproduce these general trends using a chemical transport model and show that they are due to increased oceanic iodine emissions, coupled to a change in iodine speciation over Europe from enhanced nitrogen oxide emissions. The model underestimates the increase in iodine deposition by a factor of 2, however, which may be due to an underestimate in the 20th century ozone increase. Our results suggest that iodine’s impact on the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere accelerated over the 20th century and show a coupling between anthropogenic pollution and the availability of iodine as an essential nutrient to the terrestrial biosphere.

https://www.pnas.org/content/115/48/12136

Bit more on the aerosols.

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: February 23, 2021, 03:55:53 PM »
It´s not just about rides. Having them be (fake) independent contractors also allow the company not to pay all kinds of taxes. If you are truly independent you could drive for the highest bidder which they can´t do.

So they do not pay all kinds of taxes they should for employees (money for sick leave, unemployment etc) reporting that as profit while stealing from countries they operate in. This earns them far more.

38
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 23, 2021, 03:29:33 PM »
At least i was close.  :)

Ust-Shchuger has a subarctic climate (Dfc) with mild to warm summers and severely cold winters. It holds the European low temperature record of −58.1 °C (−72.6 °F), recorded on December 31, 1978

Interesting place...i still have the impression they profit from location if you go for purely Euro records.

FWIW:
WMO Region II (Asia): Lowest Temperature
Record Value   -67.8°C (-90°F)
Date of Record   (a) 5/2/1892, 7/2/1892
(b) 6/2/1933
Geospatial Location   (a) Verkhoyansk, Russia [67°33'N, 133°23'E, elevation 107 m (350 ft)]
(b) Oimaykon, Russia [63°28'N, 142°23'E, elevation 800m (2625 ft)]

https://wmo.asu.edu/content/asia-lowest-temperature

39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 23, 2021, 03:16:59 PM »
Data from the Netherlands:

Vaccinations in care homes started january 18th.
On Jan 19th there were 800 locations with active infections.
5 weeks later this went down to 464 locations.

Positive tests decreased from 205 per day to 89 in the last week.

Death decreased from 40 to 16 per day.

This group received the Pfizer vaccine with the second dose administered 3 to 6 weeks after the first.

Another proof that vaccines work is that there is a decline of cases in this group while there is none in the general population.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6118083/vaccinatiecampagne-lijkt-effect-te-hebben-situatie-verpleeghuizen-sterk-verbeterd.html

It will be interesting to see the same data a month on when the whole group has had 2 shots.

40
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: February 23, 2021, 02:51:36 PM »
Isn´t that in the Ural mountains?

Meanwhile in the Netherlands today it is once again 15,1 degrees C in The Bilt. This classifies as a soft day and it is the fourth in a row which is a new record for the winter season and also a first since 1901 when the modern meteorological records start. The range will be 5 tomorrow and thursday will probably fall short.

Previous 3 day records:
1998 from 13 to 15 feb
2019 from 25 to 27 feb

https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/6118070/nooit-eerder-werden-in-de-winter-zoveel-zachte-dagen-achter-elkaar-gemeten.html


41
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: February 23, 2021, 11:05:29 AM »
Extinction: Freshwater fish in 'catastrophic' decline

A report has warned of a "catastrophic" decline in freshwater fish, with nearly a third threatened by extinction.

Conservation groups said 80 species were known to have gone extinct, 16 in the last year alone.

Millions of people rely on freshwater fish for food and as a source of income through angling and the pet trade.

But numbers have plummeted due to pressures including pollution, unsustainable fishing, and the damming and draining of rivers and wetlands.

The report said populations of migratory fish have fallen by three-quarters in the last 50 years.

Over the same time period, populations of larger species, known as "megafish", have crashed by 94%
.

The report, The World's Forgotten Fishes, is by 16 conservation groups, including WWF, the London Zoological Society (ZSL), Global Wildlife Conservation and The Nature Conservancy.


https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-56160756


42
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 22, 2021, 10:03:43 PM »
Fossil fuels may still contribute to air pollution even when the car is turned off

Long-chain alkanes, key chemical components of fossil fuels such as gasoline, contribute to urban air pollution even if they are not combusted, reports a study published in Communications Chemistry.

In combustion processes, such as in car engines, a chain reaction called autoxidation occurs at high temperatures. Recently, autoxidation was identified as an important source for highly oxygenated chemicals in the atmosphere, which result in organic aerosol air pollution. Conventional chemical knowledge suggests that for an autoxidation reaction to occur at atmospheric, low-temperature conditions, suitable structural features like carbon–carbon double bonds or oxygen-containing groups have to be present in the chemicals. Having neither of these features, alkanes, the primary fuel type in combustion engines and an important class of urban trace gases, were thought to have minor susceptibility to autoxidation.

Zhandong Wang and colleagues used recently developed, highly sensitive mass spectrometry to measure both radicals and oxidation products of alkanes. They found that the studied C6–C10 alkanes undergo autoxidation much more efficiently than previously thought, both under combustion and atmospheric conditions. Even at high concentrations of NOX, which typically rapidly terminate autoxidation reactions in urban areas, these alkanes produce considerable amounts of highly oxygenated products that can contribute to urban organic aerosol pollution.

https://phys.org/news/2021-02-fossil-fuels-contribute-air-pollution.html

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 22, 2021, 10:01:50 PM »
EU spent €440 million on failed gas projects since 2013, study finds

In less than a decade, the European Union has spent €440 million on gas pipelines that have either never been completed or are likely to fail, according to new research published on Monday (22 February).

In total, nearly €5 billion in EU taxpayer money was spent since 2013 on 41 gas projects such as pipelines or import terminals known as “Projects of Common Interest” (PCIs), according to the study by Global Witness, an international NGO.

Of that, an estimated €440 million was splashed on seven gas projects that have either failed or have been put on hold, says Global Witness.

The vast majority of that sum – over €430 million – was spent on the BRUA pipeline, aimed at connecting Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Austria to gas reserves in the Black Sea.

Research for offshore gas in the Black Sea economic zone of Bulgaria and Romania has been a hot topic in the past, but in the case of Bulgaria, work is at a complete standstill.

Designed to ease Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, BRUA aims to carry 1.75 billion cubic metres of gas in its first phase, which cost an estimated €479 million.

A section of the pipeline was completed in November 2020, but it is located entirely in Romania and reaches neither the Black Sea nor the country’s neighbours.

Investors are now worried that BRUA will not transport gas from the Black Sea, after Exxon – which had been leading the largest portion of the project – announced it wanted to sell its license.

Plans to extend BRUA into Hungary were cancelled in April last year, and it is unlikely the pipe will now transport gas from the Black Sea – falling short of the project’s initial ambition when the EU labelled it as a project of common interest.

The other six projects are:

The Portugal-Spain 3rd gas interconnection (cancelled). EU subsidy: €97,359
The Midcat gas pipeline connecting France and Spain (cancelled). EU subsidy: €6,253,708
The Poland-Czech Republic gas interconnection (shelved). EU subsidy: 1,360,868
The Pince-Lendava-Kidričevo gas pipeline (no activity since receiving EU funding in 2014). EU subsidy: €344,500
The Austria-Czech Republic gas interconnector (halted). EU subsidy: €41,993
The Eastring gas project linking Slovakia to the Bulgarian-Turkish border via Romania and Hungary (indefinitely postponed). EU subsidy: €438,527
Project selection under scrutiny

Global Witness is now warning Europe against repeating the same mistakes when selecting the next batch of projects under the EU’s updated regulation on trans-European networks for energy (TEN-E).

etc:
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2021/02/22/eu-spent-e440-million-failed-gas-projects-since-2013-study-finds/


44
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: February 22, 2021, 04:41:01 PM »
Or give up on the idea that self regulation is a good idea and winterproof the grid and connect it to the the rest of the US.

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: February 22, 2021, 04:33:29 PM »
To the picture you can also add the waters flowing in:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Equatorial_Current

I am pretty sure it never got cold enough there for sea ice to form.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: February 21, 2021, 06:47:58 PM »
This is a reply to Gerontocrats query in #3588 from the melting season thread.


Elsewhere I have seen that a colder stratosphere tends to favour a stronger polar vortex.

But the fact remains that temps at 10hpa are about 20C below average, and 10C below average at 30hpa. This is at a time when rapid temp increases is the norm. Has anybody any thoughts on the effect of a "sudden stratospheric cooling" on lower altitudes?

I know nothing about this but I guess the current cooling is due to the polar vortex finally "restarting" after having collapsed spectacularly in January (and it stayed collapsed for unusually long). So it is a sort of pendulum-effect: it was down and out for long so it returned in strength.
Now a strong vortex favours ice retention if I am correct BUT with the current extreme heat intrusion into the North Pole region that might not be true.
Anyway, the Pole-region seemed very vulnerable even before this event and now looks even more so.
So, as I said I know nothing.

First of this is as stated a laymen opinion but this is my line of thinking too. The question is actually interesting but actually we cannot answer it with current graphs alone. Is this uncommon? Ideally you need graphs from a whole bunch of events.

The temps first spike up to temps higher then SEP. Would be interesting to see the same graph with the priors year(s). Or plotting the general downtrend after spikes etc.

Short version: a work in progress i guess.  ;)


47
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: February 21, 2021, 06:22:28 PM »
Possibly.

Some quotes from:
A changing Bering Sea is influencing weather far to the south, scientists say

...

Hundreds of miles inland from the Bering Sea, at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, physical oceanographer Seth Danielson is monitoring the moving pieces of the climate ecosystem. One standout factor, he said, is the loss of ice in the Bering Sea.

“The waters start warmer in the fall, so we are making less ice. The air temperature is warmer so we are having less ice in the winter,” he said. “At some point, you have to assume that what you think is normal has changed.”

...

The Bering-Chukchi connection
The Bering Sea holds a pivotal role, Danielson said, because of its location at a critical point on the massive marine conveyor belt that regulates the world’s oceans. The Pacific Ocean rests at a higher elevation than the Atlantic Ocean, so water from the Pacific runs downhill through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sea, he said.

That means the heat that the Bering collects from the south pours through that narrow strait separating Alaska from Russia. That heat is building as increasingly open and dark-surfaced Bering Sea absorbs more of the sun’s rays rather than reflecting the energy with white ice.

...

Danielson and his colleagues in the UAF oceanography group and other institutions have been able to track the movement of heat from the Bering into the Chukchi with instruments on fixed moorings at strategic spots in the marine system.

That heat flow accelerated in just a few years. In the 2014-to-2018 period, the amount of heat going through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi was about 43 percent higher than the amount prior to 2014, according to the most recent calculations, which Danielson presented at this year’s Alaska Marine Science Symposium, held online in January.

Effects intensify as heat moves north.

Though the Bering Sea is undergoing a well-recognized transformation, with record-low and near-record-low winter ice amounts in recent years, the Chukchi Sea is in some ways changing more dramatically, he said.

Danielson and his colleagues quantified temperature differences in a study published in May of 2020. In the Bering Strait, temperatures increased at a rate of 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade from 1991 to 2015, mooring measurements showed. But in the Chukchi, temperatures increased by 0.43 degrees per decade since 1990, the measurements showed.

Every 1 degree Celsius of warming in the Chukchi delays freeze-up by about three weeks, Danielson said. Such delays are documented in the satellite record, which shows that type of ice extent that used to be normal in October is appearing much later — not until December in recent years.

That delay in freezing means the ocean and atmosphere absorb more heat over longer periods, Danielson said. With the extra heat now cast off by the Chukchi in the fall, “You would heat the whole Arctic by something like a degree (Celsius),” he said, referring to not just all the seas but also all the land above the Arctic Circle. “The Chukchi is a clear center of action for delivering heat to the Arctic,” he said.

....

And there is more about the teleconnections but i found the Arctic stuff more interesting.

https://www.arctictoday.com/a-changing-bering-sea-is-influencing-weather-far-to-the-south-scientists-say/

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: February 21, 2021, 06:00:43 PM »
Quote
thick sea-ice.

Propaganda...that is not thick sea ice.  ;)

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 21, 2021, 05:45:59 PM »
FCEVs are Fuel Cell EVs.

50
I waved the magic wand and now they are one post.

There is an easy trick for such thing which was taught by typepad (although that just disappeared your posts without outages) :
Open word document and paste link and quotes in there.
From there you can post it and add the quote boxes or you can paste the code for them straight into the document. So [q uote] and [/q uote] withouth space otherwise it looks like this:
Quote
and

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