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Messages - kassy

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1
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: Today at 03:34:10 PM »
I confirm none of us are recently born babies.
Also misogyny. Grow a womb and you get to vote. 

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 03:22:16 PM »
A step away from amateur virology.
Or how the pro´s do it in NL.

The R* is back in the month (All months except June July and August have an R in their name in dutch. So it´s all the cold months. There is also a traditional proverb related to it but i can´t remember.) and that means colds and such. Which is inconvenient because that technically means you need to be tested.

Now if you are a parent this becomes much more complicated.

Young kids have colds all the time so until age 8 or so they can go to school. Their teachers see the problem. Actually there are two.

One. Kid has some seasonal bug that gets you. You stay put. You call the newly instated hotline for teacher and medical personal to find out it is already overloaded so it takes more then a day to make the appointment that way too just like for the regular testing.

Problem two: kid has corona. You won´t find out any quicker but the teacher misses at least a week of teaching.

Older kids do have to stay home when they have symptoms.

And then there are these variations life comes up with.

A kid comes into school with some symptoms of cold and a really fresh covid negative test.
Great come inside.

Now some other kids will get symptoms which need to be tested etc.

For some reason they did not think their scenarios out well enough. If everyone with symptoms isolated that would help so much but that was not the message.

Doing that would also mean that any kid with a runny nose stayed home (at least in the plus 9 group, maybe use another cut off age like 6 or so) but that might be a problem for the parents. 


3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 02:20:06 PM »
I edited out the insults from 8905. It was a simple argument for herd immunity.

There are simple counterarguments like the US making one without doing all the proper tests (would skip that one too if in same age group etc).

I totally don´t see the dengue analogy (no vector needed etc) and in general simple and testable ideas are preferred to more elaborate private theories.


4
Quote
Globally, the richest 10% are those with incomes above about $35,000 (£27,000) a year, and the richest 1% are people earning more than about $100,000.

..a finite carbon budget of how much carbon dioxide it is safe to produce, which scientists warn will be exhausted within a decade at current rates.

So that is about 29750 and 85000 euros.

From REaC thread:
Thanks for that, nanning. Many won't believe it.

From an earth perspective (which really should be the main perspective we all view things from), the central function of modern industrial society/economy is to transform the riches and beauties of the earth into toxic waste and trash.

And the global wealthy (which probably includes most posters on this forum) are the juggernauts of that economy.

These numbers combined with the recent bbc survey tell a simple story.

New worldwide Poll on climate change concern and need for action:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54208995

I think we will do capitalism until it really does not work and then we will be surprised at how quick the wheels come off.

On an individual level we basically want to hang on to what we have, also relatively.

And on an international level we have countries competing for which they also need money/growth to but more military stuff.

5
Quote
But respondents had very different attitudes to the level of urgency required to tackle the problem.

Big majorities in poorer countries strongly agreed with tackling climate change with the same vigour as Covid-19.

However in richer nations, the support for rapid action was far more muted.

...

Japan, Sweden, Australia, the US and UK all have less than 45% of respondents strongly agreeing with urgent action.

In Kenya, Mexico, Argentina, Turkey and Nigeria the figure was well above 70% in all of them
.

The richer countries are also big the historical emitters and since they mostly got rich by centuries of exploitation we really have a moral obligation to lead the way in the energy transition and to help out the poorer countries.

In reality we are worrying about ´our growth´ while ignoring the already accrueing economic damages.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: Today at 12:57:09 PM »
And with SSS at 31 a degree above melting point is the water temperature under Mosaic, 2 degrees whenever there is any winds.

SSS is Sea Surface Salinity with the scale in PSU not degrees F.
And for SST they use C.

7
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 20, 2020, 10:28:01 PM »
It´s not a theory since we can see the ice there even if it is in bits.

A significant air pressure decrease in September is evident for the 1996–2014 period, which may be linked to delayed sea ice formation.

Which is mainly happening outside the core region of the graph.

8
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: September 20, 2020, 11:24:42 AM »
Long ago i had co worker who really loved the system. Getting it started is pretty easy. Just google ´zelf een wormenbak maken´.

9
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: September 20, 2020, 11:15:59 AM »
Stone Age Humans Were Sleeping On Comfy Grass Beds 200,000 Years Ago

Living in a cave may not be luxurious, but the ancient inhabitants of southern Africa did their best to make their homes as snug as possible by creating soft beds out of ash and grass. According to a new study in the journal Science, this mixture allowed for a good night’s sleep as it provided soft bedding while also helping to repel insects, and was already in use some 200,000 years ago.

Previously, the oldest known use of plant bedding was from a 77,000-year-old site called Sibudu in South Africa, where researchers discovered layers of sedge interspersed with ash and medicinal plants that they believe were used as rudimentary mattresses. Yet this latest finding pushes back the date of the earliest use of bedding by over 100,000 years.

The discovery was made in Border Cave, which is also located in South Africa and is known to have been occupied intermittently from about 227,000 years ago. Using a range of microscopic and spectroscopic techniques, the study authors were able to identify grass in a layer of white ash that has been dated back to the cave’s early years of human occupation.

...

This theory is supported by the fact that the researchers were able to identify the remains of camphor leaves among the bedding. Given that this aromatic plant is still used as an insect repellent in East African bedding to this day, the study authors are fairly confident that Border Cave’s earliest tenants were indeed using plants to create comfortable, bug-free sleeping spaces.

While the act of collecting soft leaves to sleep on may not seem all that impressive, the kind of cognitive complexity that is required for this sort of innovation is generally thought to have developed in humans about 100,000 years ago. That this discovery significantly predates that threshold suggests that the potential for a sophisticated material culture was very much present at the dawn of man.

https://www.iflscience.com/editors-blog/stone-age-humans-were-sleeping-on-comfy-beds-200000-years-ago/

10
Science / Re: Ocean temperatures
« on: September 20, 2020, 11:12:43 AM »
Climate change: Earthquake 'hack' reveals scale of ocean warming

Scientists have found a clever new way of measuring ocean warming, using sound waves from undersea earthquakes.

The researchers say the "hack" works because sound travels faster in warmer water.

The team looked at sonic data from the Indian Ocean emitted by tremors over a 10-year period.

As the seas have warmed due to global heating, the scientists have seen the sound waves increase in speed.

Their new method shows the decadal warming trend in the Indian Ocean was far higher than previous estimates.

...

The scientists examined data from over 4,000 tremors that occurred in the Indian Ocean between 2004 and 2016.

...

The team then looked for pairs of "repeaters", earthquakes with almost identical origins and power.

By measuring how long these slow-moving signals took to travel across the waters from Indonesia to a monitoring station on the island of Diego Garcia, they were able to work out the changes in temperature for the whole of the ocean over the 10-year period.

"It takes sound waves about half an hour to travel from Sumatra to Diego Garcia," lead author Dr Wenbo Wu from the California Institute of Technology told BBC News.

"The temperature change of the deep ocean between Sumatra and Diego Garcia causes this half-hour travel time to vary by a few tenths of a second.

"Because we can measure these variations very accurately, we can infer the small changes in the average temperature of the deep ocean, in this case about a tenth of a degree."

...

In their research, the scientists showed that warming in the Indian Ocean over the decade that they studied was greater than previously estimated.

However, the paper has some important caveats.

"It is important to emphasise that this is a result that applies to this particular region and this particular decade," said Dr Wu.

"We need to apply our method in many more regions and over different time frames to evaluate whether there is any systematic under- or over-estimation of the deep-ocean trend globally.

"It is much too early to draw any conclusions in this direction."

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54193334

11
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: September 20, 2020, 11:05:45 AM »
Europe's old-growth forests at risk

A new study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the conservation status of primary forests in Europe -- and shows that many of them are not protected and at risk of being destroyed. The researchers conclude that formal conservation of these forests should be a top priority for countries to meet their climate change and biodiversity goals.

...

Gathering data and mapping for five years, the team's research makes clear that Europe's ancient forests are in a perilous state -- and that many of them continue to be logged. The researchers conclude that formal conservation of these forests should be a top priority for countries to meet their climate change and biodiversity goals.

"While many primary forests are in fact well protected, we also found many regions where they are not -- particularly where primary forests are still common," says Francesco Sabatini, the study's lead author from the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research and Martin Luther University, Halle-Wittenberg. "And where they are protected, in some cases, the level of protection is inadequate to ensure these forests will be protected in the long-term."

The study also highlights that remaining primary forests are very unevenly distributed across Europe. "Some regions, particularly in Scandinavia and Finland as well as Eastern Europe, still have many primary forests. But often those countries do not realize how unique their forests are at the European scale and how important it is to protect them," says senior author Tobias Kuemmerle from Humboldt University in Berlin. "At the same time, we were shocked to see that there are many natural forests types in Europe without any primary forest remaining at all, particularly in Western Europe."

...

The new study found a "substantial bias," the scientists write, in how these remaining primary forests are distributed across forest types. Of the 54 forest types they assessed, they found that six had no remaining old-growth stands at all. And in two-thirds of the forest types, they found that less than one percent was old growth. And only ten forest types had more than half of their old growth strictly protected.

In other words, even if scarce and irreplaceable, many of these primary forests are not legally protected and continue to be logged in Europe. However, with swift action, strict conservation protections on those that remain can be put in place, the team says -- plus: old-growth forests, and their many values, can be restored.

...

"Now is the time to be ambitious. There is a lot of momentum for forest conservation and restoration in Europe at the moment," says Francesco Sabatini, in part because of the European Union's Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 that explicitly recognizes the irreplaceable value of primary forests. "Our study provides a foundation for putting this strategy into practice," he says.

"Our work shows that all the remaining primary forests in Europe could be protected with a modest expansion of protected areas," says UVM's Bill Keeton, "and I think this study will change the whole dialogue around old forest restoration in Europe, highlighting where that would be most valuable."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/09/200917122842.htm

12
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 20, 2020, 10:55:43 AM »
Temps N of 80 do not cover 14 million km2, and the DMI weighting is further skewed towards the pole.

That is the relevant part. So for now the ice is still there.

13
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: September 18, 2020, 08:51:25 PM »
Climate change: Earthquake 'hack' reveals scale of ocean warming

Scientists have found a clever new way of measuring ocean warming, using sound waves from undersea earthquakes.

The researchers say the "hack" works because sound travels faster in warmer water.

The team looked at sonic data from the Indian Ocean emitted by tremors over a 10-year period.

As the seas have warmed due to global heating, the scientists have seen the sound waves increase in speed.

Their new method shows the decadal warming trend in the Indian Ocean was far higher than previous estimates.

...

The deployment of around 4,000 autonomous devices called Argo floats that capture temperature information has helped enormously, but there are big gaps in our knowledge.

This is especially true in relation to what's happening in the waters deeper than 2,000m.

But now a team of researchers has developed a very different approach that exploits the fact that the speed of sound in seawater depends on temperature.

The idea was first proposed and trialled in the late 1970s using sound waves generated by scientists.

However, concerns over the impact of these sounds on marine mammals and rising costs saw the idea abandoned.

The new approach involves using the naturally produced sound waves that occur when an underwater earthquake strikes.

The scientists examined data from over 4,000 tremors that occurred in the Indian Ocean between 2004 and 2016.

The team then looked for pairs of "repeaters", earthquakes with almost identical origins and power.

By measuring how long these slow-moving signals took to travel across the waters from Indonesia to a monitoring station on the island of Diego Garcia, they were able to work out the changes in temperature for the whole of the ocean over the 10-year period.

"It takes sound waves about half an hour to travel from Sumatra to Diego Garcia," lead author Dr Wenbo Wu from the California Institute of Technology told BBC News.

"The temperature change of the deep ocean between Sumatra and Diego Garcia causes this half-hour travel time to vary by a few tenths of a second.

"Because we can measure these variations very accurately, we can infer the small changes in the average temperature of the deep ocean, in this case about a tenth of a degree."

..

The method is also quite cheap, as it uses data that's already being gathered, and is sensitive to temperatures deeper than the current restriction of 2,000m.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54193334

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 18, 2020, 08:31:06 PM »
And that can happen with any normal car (with driver but that is not an issue) so that is not really relevant.

If you have the self drive system the car should stick to local speed limits.

15
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 18, 2020, 07:57:38 PM »
As with ESAS methane, nobody wants to hear about albedo, better to err on the side of least drama, hundreds of examples documented by AbruptSLR on that forum.

Thanks.

People are also not that into real simple climate science.

Paris agreement. We keep under some ´safe´ 2C level.
Safe is not actually defined so lets substitute the usual climate tipping points. Keeping the permafrost a sink has failed. Saving the arctic ice has failed. Not triggering Antarctica too etc.
And that is with current temps.

The Arctic ices ´old ice skeleton´ is clearly failing so next year might be even worse in the Central Arctic. I think this region is more vulnerable then people usually argue so we might see unprecedented losses there soon (this decade) and then we will see what Earth calculates for the budget and what the actual knock on effects are.

16
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 18, 2020, 05:55:44 PM »
Thanks. I found the percentages oddly similar but looking at graphs it is a seasonal effect for most of the time.

17
Science / Re: Solar cycle
« on: September 18, 2020, 05:19:34 PM »
Sea ice Triggered the Little Ice Age, Finds a New Study
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-sea-ice-triggered-age.html


The map shows Greenland and adjacent ocean currents. Colored circles show where some of the sediment cores used in the study were obtained from the seafloor. The small historical map from the beginning of the 20th century shows the distribution of Storis, or sea ice from the Arctic Ocean, which flows down the east coast of Greenland. The graphs show the reconstructed time series of changes in the occurrence of sea ice and polar waters in the past. The colors of the curves correspond to the locations on the map. The blue shading represents the period of increased sea ice in the 1300s.

A new study finds a trigger for the Little Ice Age that cooled Europe from the 1300s through mid-1800s, and supports surprising model results suggesting that under the right conditions sudden climate changes can occur spontaneously, without external forcing.

...

Martin W. Miles et al, Evidence for extreme export of Arctic sea ice leading the abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age, Science Advances (2020)
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/38/eaba4320

Click on the link for the full text.

Also see post #71 up above for more hints that solar activity is not related to the events.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 17, 2020, 10:59:20 PM »
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/8074/record-arctic-sea-ice-loss-in-2007

This is what it looked like.

Somewhere along the 07-12 years the ice rebuilding circulation broke down. Not that much thick ice making the Beaufort round to join the pack.

I think 2007 was just a year on a continuum. Back then it looked bad but there still was a lot of ice.

19
Consequences / Re: The Climatic Effects of a Blue Ocean Event
« on: September 17, 2020, 10:17:19 PM »
Is Central Arctic a combination of the blue seas or a separate entry?

20
Consequences / Re: Temperature records (data)
« on: September 16, 2020, 01:42:58 PM »
Tuesday the 15th of september was the latest ever tropical day (over 30C) in the dutch weather records.

It only happened 5 times before. Last one was 14-09-2016.
https://www.nu.nl/binnenland/6077524/hitterecord-prinsjesdag-is-de-laatste-tropische-dag-in-het-jaar-sinds-1901.html

PS: We call it Gilze-Rijen.

21
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: September 16, 2020, 01:18:49 PM »
And we shall call the cloud city Bespin.  ;)

I bet a drone space ship that flies there and samples some of the clouds will be cheaper...

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: September 15, 2020, 10:07:05 PM »
The 80N is just temperature not anomaly. Shows the effect of some missing ice in the range.

23
Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: September 15, 2020, 01:50:03 PM »
Hundreds of thousands of migratory birds have been found dead in New Mexico

(CNN)Biologists at New Mexico State University are trying to find out why hundreds of thousands of migratory birds have been found dead across the state.

The mystery started August 20 with the discovery of a large number of dead birds at the US Army White Sands Missile Range and White Sands National Monument, according to Martha Desmond, a professor at the university's department of fish, wildlife and conservation ecology.

What was first believed to be an isolated incident turned out to be a much more serious problem when hundreds more dead birds were found in regions across the state. including Doña Ana County, Jemez Pueblo, Roswell and Socorro.

"It's just terrible," Desmond told CNN. "The number is in the six figures. Just by looking at the scope of what we're seeing, we know this is a very large event, hundreds of thousands and maybe even millions of dead birds, and we're looking at the higher end of that."

Dead migratory birds -- which include species such as warblers, bluebirds, sparrows, blackbirds, the western wood pewee and flycatchers -- are also being found in Colorado, Texas and Mexico.

...

Residents and biologists reported seeing birds acting strangely before they died. For example, birds that are normally seen in shrubs and trees have been spotted on the ground looking for food and chasing bugs.

Many were lethargic and unresponsive so they were getting hit by cars, Desmond said, in numbers "larger than ever seen before."

On the missile range golf course, swallows, which are aerial insectivores that don't even walk, were sitting on the ground and letting people approach them, she added.

Possible reasons

One of the factors biologists believe may have contributed to the deaths of the birds is the wildfires burning in California and other Western states, which may have forced the birds into early migration before they were ready.
´
"Birds who migrated before they were ready because of the weather might have not had enough fat to survive," Desmond said. "Some birds might have not even had the reserves to start migrating so they died in place."

...

"We began seeing isolated mortalities in August, so something else has been going on aside the weather events and we don't know what it is. So that in itself is really troubling," she added.

...

"This is devastating. Climate charge is playing a role in this." Desmond said. "We lost 3 billion birds in the US since 1970 and we've also seen a tremendous decline in insects, so an event like this is terrifying to these populations and it's devastating to see."

https://us.cnn.com/2020/09/14/us/new-mexico-birds-died-migration-trnd/index.html

24
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: September 15, 2020, 01:44:40 PM »
Mike Watt - Piss Bottle Man

About a guy who inherits his dads truck and bottle.  :)


25
The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: September 15, 2020, 01:40:19 PM »
Nice find. Funny last paragraph since they are not really massive herbivores.

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy Transition and Consumption
« on: September 15, 2020, 01:34:25 PM »
And there is a lot in the pipeline technology wise (see Wildcatters post above).

Timing wise it is a bit late because there is already so much damage done.

We could really use an international carbon tax everyone uses (so we won´t get that soon).

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: September 15, 2020, 01:09:39 PM »
Oops fixed... (background song singing about miles lol).

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: September 15, 2020, 01:04:09 PM »
Although it is missing the actual technical definition of ice area under 1 million square kilometers.

29
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: September 14, 2020, 08:05:25 PM »
Cool find.

30
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: September 13, 2020, 08:55:46 PM »
Yes, as humans left their original homelands in Africa, we probably wiped out a number of large species, being basically an invasive species ourselves. There is still some debate about which ones were wiped out by us and which failed to adapt to changing climates.

But those extinctions pale compared to the global mass extinctions and destruction of ecosystems going on today.

And once humans did settle in any particular area, they tended to fairly quickly develop a set of taboos to avoid wiping out crucial local and fauna. If they didn't they would generally not last very long.

I think that is wrong.

Basically they usually did not have the resources to go all in like we had last century.

There is tremedous deforestation in Europe from roman times on. We could use the wood and we could use the land. No taboos there.

We would already mine but not to the scale we would do later.

When transport got faster the world shrunk and so more and more places could be used.

Long ago i walked the Camino de Santiago. I took about a month walking from the french border to Santiago and then you get into the train. In an 2 hours you were where you were a week ago and at the end of the day you were near the start.

So i don´t think they did taboos that much.

31
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: September 13, 2020, 08:44:03 PM »
And also off topic.

280 is moot if we cannot even get close to 350.
And extinctions belong in another thread.

Also to taboos:
I think that is wrong.

32
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 13, 2020, 08:26:04 PM »
Yes they are but that is for another thread.

I suggest mainly focusing on thing we do know about the virus and the vaccine.




33
Science / Re: Where are we now in CO2e , which pathway are we on?
« on: September 12, 2020, 06:27:48 PM »
Where does the heat go?

This study calculates that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere must be reduced from the present concentration of nearly 410 ppm to approximately 350 ppm to bring the Earth back towards energy balance.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/where-does-heat-go

See the article for details but hey look another piece of evidence that we are well into overshoot.


34
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: September 12, 2020, 06:11:42 PM »
So it is september and we had ample of time to prepare. Boost test capacity etc.
But they did not do enough.

A friend of mine had some symptoms so he needed to be tested but it took most of monday even to make an appointment. Via web was overloaded.
Then he got tested wednesday or so with the results due saturday or sunday so the party was cancelled  (it was to be on one of those days).

An even bigger problem is the schools reopening. As soon as a teacher develops symptoms they stay home and need to be tested. This creates a lot of strain on the system because the number of teachers is already limited so sometime classes need to be send home because there is no replacement.

There is no separate test group for that critical personal or any at all.


35
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: September 12, 2020, 09:38:22 AM »
More than 90% of the world's protected areas are disconnected

According to a new study, more than 90% of Earth's protected areas are disconnected -- surrounded by human pressures -- according to a study published Friday in the journal Nature Communications.

"Connected landscapes ensure species can move through a landscape," lead study author Michelle Ward told UPI in an email.

"Species travel for many reasons including seasonal migrations, finding a mate, moving away from close relatives to ensure genetic diversity, escaping natural disasters such as fires, or tracking their preferred climates," said Ward, an environmental scientist and doctoral candidate at the University of Queensland in Australia.

...

According to the Human Footprint, 40% of Earth's land remains intact, while the remaining 60 percent is relatively degraded.

When researchers looked at the distribution of intact land, they found it rarely forms a bridge between protected areas.

"If two protected areas have 'intact' land in between them, we define those two protected areas as connected," Ward said. "While this kind of structural connectivity alone does not guarantee connectivity for all species, high levels of landscape connectedness is seen as critical for species in regards to migration, escaping natural disasters, and adaptation under human-induced climate change."

...

To protect Earth's biodiversity and important ecological processes, authors of the latest study argue more must be done to connect the planet's protected areas. That means safeguarding still-intact landscapes and restoring landscapes that can connect isolated pockets of wild habitat.

https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2020/09/11/More-than-90-of-the-worlds-protected-areas-are-disconnected/7461599824845/?ur3=1

36
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: September 12, 2020, 09:35:40 AM »
In the Amazon, forest degradation is outpacing full deforestation

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon has increased abruptly in the past two years, after having been on a downward trajectory for more than a decade. With the country’s president Jair Bolsonaro notoriously enthusiastic about expanding into the rainforest, new deforestation data regularly makes global headlines.

But what fewer people realise is that even forests that have not been cleared, or fully “deforested”, are rarely untouched. Indeed, just 20% of the world’s tropical forests are classified as intact. The rest have been impacted by logging, mining, fires, or by the expansion of roads or other human activities. And all this can happen undetected by the satellites that monitor deforestation.

These forests are known as “degraded”, and they make up an increasingly large fraction of the world’s remaining forest landscapes. Degradation is a major environmental and societal challenge. Disturbances associated with logging, fire and habitat fragmentation are a significant source of CO₂ emissions and can flip forests from carbon sinks to sources, where the carbon emitted when trees burn or decompose outweighs the carbon taken from the atmosphere as they grow.

...

Degradation detectives
New research published in the journal Science by a team of Brazilian and US researchers led by Eraldo Matricardi has taken an important step towards tackling this challenge. By combining more than 20 years of satellite data with extensive field observations, they trained a computer algorithm to map changes in forest degradation through time across the entire Brazilian Amazon. Their work reveals that 337,427 km² of forest were degraded across the Brazilian Amazon between 1992 and 2014, an area larger than neighbouring Ecuador. During this same period, degradation actually outpaced deforestation, which contributed to a loss of a further 308,311 km² of forest.

The researchers went a step further and used the data to tease apart the relative contribution of different drivers of forest degradation, including logging, fire and forest fragmentation. What these maps reveal is that while overall rates of degradation across the Brazilian Amazon have declined since the 1990s – in line with decreases in deforestation and associated habitat fragmentation – rates of selective logging and forest fires have almost doubled. In particular, in the past 15 years logging has expanded west into a new frontier that up until recently was considered too remote to be at risk.

for details and maps see:
https://theconversation.com/in-the-amazon-forest-degradation-is-outpacing-full-deforestation-145901

37
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: September 12, 2020, 09:29:04 AM »
From the Amazon to the Congo Basin to Indonesia, people are destroying precious rainforest and other ecosystems, mostly for agricultural expansion. Indigenous people are pushed off their lands, and even murdered when they resist. This destruction happens far away from Europe, but that doesn’t mean that Europe’s hands are clean. The EU imports a huge 36% of all the ‘embedded deforestation’ linked to products traded globally – beef, palm oil and soy for animal feed, but also coffee, cacao, paper and others. This means that the EU is responsible for over 10% of all the forest destruction worldwide. European supermarkets are filled with products linked to forest and ecosystem destruction.

In 2010, at the Consumer Goods Forum, over 400 of the biggest companies – owning many household brands – promised to cut deforestation out of their supply chains by 2020. Well, 2020 is here, and not one of them followed through on that promise.

The only way to stop European consumption leading to forest destruction is an EU law that keeps deforestation products off the European market. If a corporation wants to sell its products in Europe, they should have to show they have no deforestation, ecosystem destruction, or human rights abuses in their supply chain.

https://www.greenpeace.org/international/story/45002/europe-meat-deforestation-save-amazon/

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy Transition and Consumption
« on: September 12, 2020, 09:12:29 AM »
That and/or just focus on some points.

You need fossil fuels to manufacture components needed for renewable energy, from mining to manufacturing to shipping.

There is no need for this in the long term.

Also theoretically gains from the US in renewable energy/reduction in consumption could free up a lot of space for the rest of the world population.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 11, 2020, 04:52:06 PM »
It´s the roll eye smiley. It is about the relative energy use of the chips in question which is actually important in the equation.

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 10, 2020, 05:46:02 PM »
And as a reminder here is post 1:
This thread is to be used for the most part to post articles that Tesla Inc. is either successfully implementing its business model, or that it's failing to do so. The Internet is full of tiresome discussions on this subject, so I'd appreciate it if you partake in them elsewhere. Post your evidence for either stance, and then exercise patience.

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 09, 2020, 10:48:52 PM »
This forum is about discussing policy and solutions to combat climate change. I continue to stand by my argument that Musk's vision for individualized transport, suburban lifestyle, and hyper-growth does more harm than good. Tesla's success is a failure for climate action. It displaces ACTUAL and PROVEN solutions like public transport......

I'm not sure how discussing Musk in the Musk thread is off-topic. Musk manacturing consent to promote business growth at the cost of public health has implications that are directly connected to climate change.

I agree on the first part.

The second part probably has a lot to do with this:
The reason this thread was created was to keep emotional fights over Tesla from clogging up the Cars thread.

Musk being part of the elite that is manufacturing consent was always that way. So basically a broader critique should go into If not capitalism then what? although i totally understand why you want to make the point here.



42
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: September 09, 2020, 08:43:49 PM »
I approved the posts above but Musk being part of manufacturing consent is probably not that relevant to the thread topic.

Although maybe we should conclude Tesla is a success and just close the thread...

43
I think farmed forests with intervention are not the same per se.

One problem is starting them because both young trees that start growing and recently transplantated trees are vulnerable to heatwaves so in some locations they might need extra water. Maybe drip irrigation can be used for that.

The other part i would characterise as maintenance more then farming. If we build ´old forests´ then they also need dead standing wood and some dead lying wood but we would probably have to remove some too for managing fire risks in future dry summers (mainly thinking about our NW European forests).

If you plant a lot of trees in the same location they can also take quite a bit of water (there is an article on the effect of replanting in China in the Forest thread) so that is something to take into account too.

The really big problem is the future temperatures. Again i am talking most about NW European forests. The trees have certain limits and they are being tested already. So which trees do we plant?

Maybe it would be wise to plant a mix of local and more mediterranean trees. 

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy Transition and Consumption
« on: September 07, 2020, 04:08:09 PM »
I had to snip it somewhere and your post seemed a nice one to start from.


45
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: September 06, 2020, 09:23:52 PM »
The broader discussion on consumption and renewable energy has been moved to it´s own thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3286.0.html


46
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy Transition and Consumption
« on: September 06, 2020, 08:49:55 PM »
Thanks interstitial. I think that´s a good idea. Just thinking about the title a bit.
So this is the new thread to discuss the energy transition and consumption.

47
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: September 05, 2020, 09:02:52 PM »
Sudan declares 3-month state of emergency over deadly floods

Floods have killed 99 people and caused total and partial collapse of more than 100,000 homes, says local media.

...

The rates of floods and rain for this year exceeded the records set during the years 1946 and 1988, with expectations of continued rising indicators, minister Lena el-Sheikh added.

...

Sudan's rainy season begins in June and continues through to October, which means the country experiences floods and torrential rains annually.

The committee warned on Friday the country may face more rains, adding that the water level in the Blue Nile rose to a record 17.58 metres.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/sudan-declares-3-month-state-emergency-deadly-floods-200905093808859.html

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: Where will the last Arctic Sea Ice be located?
« on: September 05, 2020, 07:52:48 PM »
I voted north of Greenland/Ellesmere island but it is that general area. It could also be more towards Canada or Beaufort near there.

Essentially that means that the Central Arctic fails first and this is because it will be surrounded by ever more open water for longer during the year. The Beaufort Gyre is not putting thick ice back in so at some point it will fracture early because the old ice back bone is not there and then it will all float somewhere and melt from the sides etc.

The remnants will be near the cooler parts so Greenland Canada side.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Rain-On-Snow Events (ROS)
« on: September 05, 2020, 07:27:44 PM »
It is rather abstract. Basically it says ROS is bad but it only evaluates it in model output.
It will drift down.  ;)

50
Consequences / Re: Arctic Amplification and Extreme Weather
« on: September 05, 2020, 06:56:27 PM »
I like that (although only a layman to so FWIW).


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