Messages

1

The rest / Re: Astronomical news

« on: Today at 03:02:39 PM »

Eruptions on Asteroid Bennu Hint at Causes of Space Rock Explosions

...

The three largest eruptions happened in the late afternoon on Bennu, in places where the sun was about to set. This finding suggests that heating may play a role in these outbursts, as surface temperatures on Bennu can vary by 180 degrees Fahrenheit (100 degrees Celsius) every 4.3 hours, the scientists said. Although the researchers have not seen ice on Bennu, they have detected rich amounts of water-bearing minerals on its surface, and heat from the sun might lead to releases of gas. Another possibility is that such extreme temperature variations may lead boulders to crack and catastrophically burst. Finally, the researchers suggested that meteorite impacts might also cause these explosions.

These findings suggest that all carbonaceous asteroids may be active. "We didn't see this when [the Japanese space agency's spacecraft] Hayabusa2 arrived at the asteroid Ryugu, but maybe we didn't look close enough," Connolly said. "This may be a new way for meteorites to get to Earth."

The main purpose of OSIRIS-REx is to collect a sample from the surface of Bennu in 2020 and return it to Earth for analysis in 2023

https://www.space.com/asteroid-bennu-eruptions-cause.html

3 more years before we get the sample. Space stuff is slow. 

2

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

« on: Today at 02:18:01 PM »

Glen nice series of posts.

"... in climate-model simulations the expected aerosol reduction causes additional ice loss..."

The change in shipping fuel rules should cause a drop from next year so we might not have to wait that long to see the extra effects of that one in the real world?

3

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)

« on: December 05, 2019, 10:36:53 PM »

In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6–5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene.
We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets.

Note the bolded phrase.  They are comparing a time without the large North American and Eurasian ice sheets (kinda like now) to the time when those ice sheets were melting (like 25,000 to 10,000 years ago).

Ken they are still melting.

The Pleistocene is the current ice age, one we are in geologically except we broke the next ice age or two because we are in the Dumbassic now. The Pleistocene had the big ice sheets and then they were gone, but it is all current geological age.
The pliocene ended with a 50m drop in sea level which must have been ice growth but geologically it was not a time like now, it was growing into the ice ages.
 
The argument is simply that the climate reacts more when the ice sheets are melting forced by CO2. It is sort of obvious when you know that ice sheets are a feedback.

Also nothing about this tells us what is going to happen with a warmer, swampier Siberia. Or with plains drying out when there are no more rivers because the snowcaps have gone. And many other changes which come slowly first then suddenly.

Basically know your unknowns and a thread like this helps filling up a part of that.

PS: Some quotes and a link to an open source science paper are not cherry picking. You can use other language like ´leave out this relevant bit´ or whatever paraphrase of that you prefer.

4

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable

« on: December 05, 2019, 02:25:28 PM »

Mekong River is turning blue. That’s not good.

Water levels in the Mekong River are now reaching a critical point. The river’s normally brown waters have turned aquamarine, like sea water, and sandbars are emerging, some of them several kilometres long.

Arthit Panasoon, president of a conservation group in the northeastern province of Nakhon Phanom, says the rare change in water colour, although it might look attractive, is a deceptively gloomy sign that the river is running dry.

He explains that the average depth in his vicinity is now around one metre, the lowest in more than fifty years. Because it’s so shallow, the river flows slowly, causing sedimentation, usually kicked up from the riverbed, to sink and remain unmoved, producing the aquamarine colour.

more on
https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/environment/mekong-river-is-turning-blue-thats-not-good

5

The rest / Re: Good music

« on: December 05, 2019, 02:18:07 PM »

Drs. P - Knolraap En Lof, Schorseneren En Prei (nl) (1987)

That aged very well. You only need to change lage into hoge and it´s updated. 

6

Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels

« on: December 05, 2019, 02:00:20 PM »

But what does that mean? It tells us that the 3.4 region lags global CO2 by about 5 month?

7

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o

« on: December 05, 2019, 01:37:46 PM »

Does Leger's objection still stand; is there any "true science" named after somebody? (Conversely, would the presence of such an identifier mark an immature discipline, a non-science?) Apologies if this one is a bit too abstract. Please ignore as necessary!

It would be weird to call a science after a person because you would prefer a proper name.
Often the name is tied to one of the discoveries like Brownian motion. If you discover a whole new science field it would also be in your interest to give it a clear name.

On naming things in science you might also enjoy Stiglers law. 

8

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o

« on: December 04, 2019, 07:56:21 PM »

Latest from them:

450 million years ago, CO2 levels were between 2000 and 8000 ppm. Earth did not turn into Venus then, either. In fact there was an ice age.
Interesting, huh? It's been both warmer and colder with far higher CO2 levels than we are at now.
Sounds to me like CO2 levels don't control Earth's temperature as much as some would like us to believe.

Anyone want to take it?

This is not what this thread is for.

It is really simple.
If you need help answering these questions you cannot debate the issue.
Also it is a waste of energy and a distraction here.

 

9

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE (narrated video)

« on: December 04, 2019, 07:48:48 PM »

Didn´t we prove that for CO2 too?

10

Arctic background / Re: Arctic expedition! Mike Horn, Borge Ousland to ski through the North Pole

« on: December 04, 2019, 06:59:09 PM »

Are the really dark lines open water? The ones above the rescue parties starting point don´t look good.

11

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news

« on: December 04, 2019, 01:39:23 PM »

Did a million years of rain jump-start dinosaur evolution?

...

Three decades later, there is a growing consensus that they were right, after all. Something strange happened in the Late Triassic — and not just in Somerset. About 232 million years ago, during a span known as the Carnian age, it rained almost everywhere. After millions of years of dry climates, Earth entered a wet period lasting one million to two million years. Nearly any place where geologists find rocks of that age, there are signs of wet weather. This so-called Carnian pluvial episode coincides with some massive evolutionary shifts.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03699-7

12

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o

« on: December 04, 2019, 12:43:04 PM »

Interesting answer.

GDP is very abstract. That does not mean it does not show does correlations you claim.

Although Bhutan is not great on GDP but i think it got to most happy nation in some ranking.

And in the US that does not really hold for environmental protection (or the other two but that is more fuzzy so lets just stick to the one).

Our only objective should always be the maximum happiness for the most people. Biodiversity and sea level must take second place to maintaining and protecting food production.

You run out of biodiversity at some point and nature provides really critical services. Do you want to export soy beans or seed rain for the continent for free? The latter service actually provides more value to the world but if no one accounts on it that does not exist. More soybean exports are probably good for your current GDP but they will hurt you in the long run.

And sea level rise is not going to help with the happiness. You lived in a nice place at the coast and then it is gone. And before it is gone gone you might be trapped in a house you cannot sell while the companies and people who can afford to move.

I guess it depends on whether you focus on all the unneeded suffering or stuff that smooths that out like GDP.

Especially in the first world we should pressure our governments to actually make their own goals and also invest in smart grids in the poorer countries. Especially since we have been robbing most of them since forever so it would be nice to give something back.

13

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures

« on: December 04, 2019, 11:46:07 AM »

For AM2:

The graphic in 2108 uses year ranks. 
So i would suggest finding the year ranks for the last 5, 10 or 20 years.
Are these two spots always relatively cold in that metric?

I think you can easily argue that both must be valid but the fact that this year ended up so purple definitely has to do with the wavy jet streams and where the cold poles are moving.

This does not mean you can not see it as a cold spot in the yearly year rank data. Or that you will see it. It basically depends if those local effects are big enough to overcome the global effects in the resolution the year ranking model (which is lets say crude).

Basically it would be an examination of the metric used to see if you can tease out data to support your claim.

14

Science / Re: 2019 CO2 emissions

« on: December 04, 2019, 10:43:21 AM »

Natural gas has seen the fastest fossil fuel emissions growth in 2019, with a projected increase of 2.6 per cent (+1.3 to +3.9 per cent). Oil used in transport is also driving emissions up, with a projected increase of 0.9 per cent (+0.3 to +1.6 per cent) this year, while emissions from coal burning are projected to decrease by 0.9 per cent (-2.0 to +0.2 per cent).

...

EU28 emissions are projected to decline by 1.7 per cent (-3.4 to +0.1 per cent) in 2019, with a projected decrease of 10 per cent in coal-based emissions, accelerating a trend of -5.1 per cent per year since 2013. Electricity generation from coal has dropped by 22 per cent through October compared with 2018, due to a sharp rise in the price of carbon in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme combined with additional policy factors. Consumption of both diesel and jet kerosene continue to increase, leading to a projected increase in emissions from oil products of 0.5 per cent in 2019. Natural gas consumption continues to grow (+3 per cent), although at a highly variable rate across EU member states.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-12/uoea-gce120219.php

First paragraph is for the world.

15

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum

« on: December 04, 2019, 09:44:07 AM »

The warnings for that picture included the subforum name (Arctic expeditions) and the thread name.

16

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o

« on: December 04, 2019, 09:16:28 AM »

Binntho if you woke up this morning feeling different and suddenly you know that you would live for a millenium instead of a century would you still use GDP to look at these things?

17

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?

« on: December 03, 2019, 06:38:43 PM »

Well that is what sort of triggers me recently. Basically in the early nineties ice failure in the Arctic ice would be 2040s stuff. Then there were some bad years in the late nineties and it got worse.

But well thats just floating ice...

Greenland was much further down the timeline and Antarctica was not happening in centuries....guess it was the time when it still gained mass.

Now we can see a lot more and we see Greenland is not just a cube slowly melting because we know more about the bottom and we learn more about the interior.

And Antarctica is not in a great shape either.

Then my personal pet pieve. Stopping global warming meant stopping the permafrost from turning into a source but that already happened. Lets see if they can close the carbon gap this blah blah session.

While at the other end Bolsonaro is doing his best to stop Leonardo the Caprio from torching the Amazon because he is long on soy or whatever. If you had told me this in the early nighties i would never have believed you.

BTW i don´t think it was all complacent smug stuff because we knew less. A lot was unthinkable and the amount of computing power limited the testing of already too simple ideas.

The world could have poured millions more into climate research and acted on it but it chose not to do that. 

18

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?

« on: December 03, 2019, 05:03:05 PM »

On the dosbat link you see the perennial extent dive down at the same time. I think it is a good match.

Other areas used to freeze and melt then they got cleared so did not protect the rest anymore.
This affected all the outer Arctic seas and the gyre and got us to here.

The future ice is harder to melt by location but it easier to melt because it is thinner and more mobile and the background forcing increases year over year.

The remaining area is also not really sticking to Greenland for safety as we had hoped for a long time so what is left might get really floaty at some point. Or just disintegrate and die in place.

I would love to know how Remaining ice at max for every year is composed by Ice Grown Locally (in the 80N circle or whatever the metric is) vs Imported ice over the previous year.
But we don´t.

I bet it would make for a cleaner fit.

19

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?

« on: December 03, 2019, 03:54:25 PM »

In just five hours, five million cubic metres of water drained to the bottom of the ice sheet via the fracture, causing a new cavity to form and reducing the lake to a third of its original volume. This caused the ice flow to accelerate from a speed of two metres per day to more than five metres per day as surface water was transferred to the bed, which in turn lifted the ice sheet by half a metre.

That is impressive. Cool research. 

20

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands

« on: December 03, 2019, 03:40:56 PM »

I don´t know the proper name of EU the law but there are two things.

1) The EU countries agreed to appoint 17% of each country as a protected nature area (Natura2000 areas). I think this is an agreement and not a law in itself. So far the Netherlands has only 13% which basically means we are one of the lowest in Europe but our problem is that we are a small and very much of the area is in some economic use.

2) The EU law relates to protecting the Natura2000 areas from pollution. The main problem for us is the nitrogen pollution because we just emit too much of it. The only real world solution is emitting less but they tried a bookkeeping solution where damage now was compensated by future efficiency gains. That got shot down in court and rightly so.

So it is a local problem with a local solution.

This also means we are not moving the problem over the border. There is no requirement for other countries to produce the extra pigs. There is of course an incentive but that is something else and in reality it will be all dwarfed by the fall out of the ASF epidemic (prices are good).

21

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars

« on: December 03, 2019, 02:07:01 PM »

Or the author is just writing about France?

22

The forum / Re: Forum Decorum

« on: December 02, 2019, 03:18:25 PM »

I was going to say or start the OT debate in proper place but it ofc starts with ´a simple misreading of a line´ and goes on from there.

Just out of curiosity where should the debate be moved too and from what post?

Basically all the OT stems from one poster grasping at straws first misreading a line and then what the oceans do. There is no really obvious thread to put it AFAIS.

My cut off date was data day aka sunday. 

23

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable

« on: December 02, 2019, 01:33:06 PM »

No specific places. It´s about the timing (currently 30 bpm).

Climate change is forcing one person from their home every two seconds, Oxfam says

(CNN)Climate-fueled disasters have forced about 20 million people a year to leave their homes in the past decade -- equivalent to one every two seconds -- according to a new report from Oxfam.

This makes the climate the biggest driver of internal displacement for the period, with the world's poorer countries at the highest risk, despite their smaller contributions to global carbon pollution compared to richer nations.

People are seven times more likely to be internally displaced by floods, cyclones and wildfires than volcanic eruptions and earthquakes, and three times more likely than by conflict, according to the report released Monday,

for further details:
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/12/01/world/oxfam-climate-displacement-intl-scli/index.html

24

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o

« on: December 01, 2019, 04:42:01 PM »

It is just a site where you write mammaloid stories which must be rather niche in itself. It really does not matter in the large perspective.

You can choose to write stories there and ignore their politics or you don´t.

You will never convince them because affiliation is more interesting then reason for most humans so any attempt is a waste of time.

25

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?

« on: December 01, 2019, 04:13:47 PM »

Well China is pretty scary. You post something critical on Weibo and the next thing you know you have restricted travel on long distance rail services.

We as westerners should be much more critical toward our systems. The problem is that we elect people on some bland talking point like scary foreigners and economic that never emerge.

Then the laws are technical and we are just dumb voters so we do not participate there but the paid lobbying interests do.

The idea that the US is the protector of the free world is a lie see:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change

I am still not that sure about the EU but...

Could we think of things we all want and want to share with all?
Simple things. We would all enjoy affordable health care.
We would all enjoy to retire after a working life.
We would all like to have our kids enjoy that too.

There is more of course when you go into details but you do not get to vote on that factory in your neighborhood or things like that. Or vote if we actually care to bomb some distant country.

People should be much more critical towards the systems that rule them.
Yeah you get to vote again but people consider it like choosing from a menu a restaurant. This is ofc worse with binary choice.

If you like cooking you see there are many more options. If you are passionate about all the options around you can see the chance to grow other stuff to make very different dishes.

But consumerism prefers the takeaway.

Democracy is not only the easiest choice you get (voting on someone).

26

Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels

« on: December 01, 2019, 03:02:43 PM »

No. It's primarily the sun that heats the ocean, not the atmosphere.
Everything else is pretty much secondary to the direct insolation effect.

https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT4.png

Yes it is primarily the sun but we can easily tell something else is having an effect too because we know the sun is not driving the change since the 1990.

If you look at all the effects we are already seeing across the world then ocean inertia is not really relevant. It was always there, our added warming effect was not.

We have been slowly adding energy for some 10k years and we have been ramping it up lately.

The graph above in combination with arctic permafrost becoming a source since 2003 and the state of the arctic ice and the effects already seen in Antarctica (something which would be an after 2100 thing last century) clearly show that 1 C of warming was the best goal we could have used.

I bring this up, because 'alarmists' tend to forget about the incredible energy inertia we have with the Ocean.

Alarmists might acknowledge the fact that ocean energy inertia is not relevant.

Why do you think it might safe us? All recent trends are there despite ocean energy inertia not budging just because there is a lot of ocean and lots of it is rather isolated. Always was that way but that did not stop snowball earth or the PETM.

27

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o

« on: December 01, 2019, 01:51:14 PM »

Which freely translates to your arguments are not valid because they conflict with our worldview.
I don´t think it is worth wasting time on them.

28

The rest / Re: Good music

« on: November 30, 2019, 08:12:09 PM »

Big money business
Take what they can
Always for a profit
Never for the consumer
Using all tricks
Using to trap
Taking all for money
For their personal gain
Corporation pull-in
Corporation pull-in
The rich get rich
The poor stay poor
Working hard
All for nothing

Part of the lyrics because well they are not easy to make out if you are not used to the style.

I had this 400 house paper round and i would get extra cents for folders so around this time of the year it would go up to 7 of them and i would put on the World Downfall album and fold to the music...job done in record time. 

29

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o

« on: November 30, 2019, 02:53:26 PM »

You can choose not to reply at all. This saves energy and i don´t think we will lose a lot of souls over this.

It can be a fun game for a while and worth it if you think there are third parties reading that you can convince by sane arguments. I did this on a general preparedness forum. Simple explanation of the falsehood and some links for more in depth explanations. Then i kept a list of simply repeated points which he never debated and reposted that. That did kill his enthousiasm a bit.

But you can only debate what you know (or are really good at faking as your opponent) so if you do not know how to rebuke it yourself then you can´t.

Sayings like You can´t win them all and Pick your battles apply.
And all energy saved helps even it is a tiny bit.   

30

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor

« on: November 30, 2019, 02:26:17 PM »

Pretty cool that The Onion can now post on Reuters website. 

This was to be expected since comedians already do a better job on reporting the news then the TV journals and background shows.
I mean shows like The Weekly Show or whatever the original of Zondag with Lubach is called.

And Steven thanks for that dino cartoon. It is wonderfully efficient.

31

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond

« on: November 27, 2019, 01:24:59 PM »

ps: Ken, how do you rate the chances of reducing CO2 emissions in 2030 by 55% (7.5% p.a.) for +1.5 celsius, 25% for +2 celsius ?

With solar and wind now cheaper than fossil fuels in about three quarters of the world (already cheaper in the developed countries and now at grid parity in China), pretty good.

Given that we're already seeing drops in global coal consumption (down 3% in 2019) and softening of demand for oil and a huge glut in natural gas, the major wildcard is how quickly battery electric vehicles take over the transportation market.  The forecast year for cost parity between BEVs and ICEs is now 2022.  So we should see peak oil demand within the decade.

I doubt we'll see a new coal power plant built after 2025 or a new natural gas power plant after 2035.  Sales of new ICE vehicles will probably be banned in most countries in the 2030s.

I suspect that we wont hit the 7.5% annual decreases needed for the 1.5 degree C target until the 2030s, but we should be able to hit the 2.0 target for emissions reductions in the 2020s and exceed them in the 2030s and 2040s.  With global temperatures increasing at around 0.18 degrees per decade and the five-year average increase around 0.9 C, we'd hit 1.5 degrees in the 2050s. So we'll end up somewhere by 1.5C and 2.0C temperature increase before looking at options for carbon dioxide removal (CDR).

Quote above is#560 from the but,but China thread and i edited out parts because i am mainly interested in the time line. Original here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,956.msg238587.html#new

Meanwhile:
1) Coal power is falling which is good but this means we get added warming from the fall out. Effects are mainly local and current sources are mainly in Asia but any extra warming there will move somewhere over time.

2) The Amazon might die in the early 20ies. It might not if we are lucky but it is rather close. If this happens we have a huge extra source of carbon and since the trees provide a lot of droplets for cloud seeding this will also lead extra drought and soil carbon loss in S-America.

3) Arctic permafrost is a source not a sink since at least 2003 due to wintertime carbon loss.

4) The global greening might turn to global browning. This is an annoying one because the actual paper is linked somewhere on ASIF but i have not been able to find it. Examples are in stories of the death of trees in Germany.

5) Continued infringement on old growth forests. We just keep chopping bits down.

6) Plenty of metrics point to the loss of Arctic ice in that time frame.

So we are chasing a 1,5 or 2 C target while all this damage is accruing.

In the meantime there will be all kind of social effects eating money and creating unrest but that does not directly effect the carbon budget so lets skip those.

And beyond just global warming there is widespread aquifer depletion and top soil loss.

So basically there is this disjoint between our abstract goals and all kind of bad stuff happening.

AFAIC the whole plan was to prevent the arctic ice from failing (which is iffy by this timeline) and preventing arctic permafrost from failing was another important point which we already failed.

When the ozone hole was detected we acted on it. Less money there i guess.
This was different with FF interests and basically the damage had been done when the goal was moved beyond 1C max global warming because that gets us to where we are now.

32

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands

« on: November 26, 2019, 05:02:00 PM »

The buyout is mainly for nitrogen and smell pollution (this was the original reason the law was already in the works). Remember these are big modern farms.

Of course there is technology to combat that but i guess that implementing that makes the pigs too expensive. 

First of all, if the Netherlands doesn't produce these pigs, some other country will.
And probably causing more emissions.

Ah yes but the nitrogen problem needs to be solved in the country because that is a EU law we signed on to and then not properly implemented. This is about our own emissions, our pollution.

So technically if someone across the border started a huge pig farm that would not be a problem.

But aren't diesel/gasoline engines a much bigger contributor of NOx than pig manure ?


The maximum speed for cars will be lowered, see first 2 posts of this thread.

Do you have a link to that study from the University of Wageningen you refer to ?

This one?

https://edepot.wur.nl/464128
The link above is a report on animal farming. For pigs see page 43.

The one on agriculture is linked under ´documenten´ on the first link.

33

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond

« on: November 26, 2019, 03:19:33 PM »

At least we tried...oh wait. 

Fifteen of the 20 wealthiest nations have no timeline for a net zero target.

The report says that emissions have gone up by 1.5% per year in the last decade. In 2018, the total reached 55 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent. This is putting the Earth on course to experience a temperature rise of 3.2C by the end of this century.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50547073

34

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond

« on: November 25, 2019, 06:16:43 PM »

They do not deserve some slack. Because actually that is lack of attention. You can also ask why are you trying to numb yourself? What are you running from?

That has no direct cost benefits in the models we use so no one is doing that but it actually erodes society.

If they just smoked some dutch herbals we could cut them some slack (although arguably it would push the CO2 limit over 0). 

35

The rest / Re: Good music

« on: November 25, 2019, 05:48:56 PM »

They used to be on the Young Ones show so you have to wonder how much they used people from that for the video or vice versa. Loved that opening. 

36

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction

« on: November 25, 2019, 05:41:06 PM »

Standard economic theory predicts that exploitation alone is unlikely to result in species extinction because of the escalating costs of finding the last individuals of a declining species.

But sometimes you do not need to find the last individuals because you just wreck their habitat.
Or you kill them before you even find them.
Or you did not want it too but it just burned because the world got a bit hotter and local failures in management did not help. So long and thanks for all the leafs signed by the functionally extinct koalas.

Here they are not really thinking of the supply chain and what might limit it.

37

The rest / Re: Astronomical news

« on: November 25, 2019, 05:31:06 PM »

Cool - there is so much we do not know. 

PS: Tom Von Neumann Probes are primitive swarmers and as thus frowned upon by all civilized species. Another general rule of etiquette is to not contact civilizations which have not figured it out yet which is why no one calls us. Now please look at the flashing pencil.

38

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands

« on: November 25, 2019, 04:59:53 PM »

Yeah if it is in Germany it might do the same thing as in Poland because that just relates to bad practices in the sector. And then that would put it next to our swine sector number 2 but as soon as that gets hit the whole country locks down.

I wonder what the current remedy is. In many scenarios they would just cull the animals and start over.

Oh the joys of monoculture... 
 

39

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond

« on: November 25, 2019, 04:36:58 PM »

Over here it is also a bit of a street drug problem. So they sit in the car taking this snorting it via balloons (plastic pollution) then leaving the metal canisters on the road (the stuff is used for whipped cream machines) which also takes quite some energy to manufacture and transport. 

Then they probably vent out some of the laughing gas directly.

This pisses me off every time i see it although i mostly see the canisters.

Oh and ofc they also drive after...

40

Policy and solutions / Re: UN Climate Agreement - Paris 2015 and beyond

« on: November 25, 2019, 03:02:05 PM »

Our 2018 ´hindcast´:

Climate change: Greenhouse gas concentrations again break records

 in 2018 concentrations of CO2 reached 407.8 parts per million (ppm), up from 405.5ppm a year previously.

This increase was above the average for the last 10 years and is 147% of the "pre-industrial" level in 1750.

Methane is now at 259% of the pre-industrial level and the increase seen over the past year was higher than both the previous annual rate and the average over the past 10 years.

Nitrous oxide is emitted from natural and human sources, including from the oceans and from fertiliser-use in farming. According to the WMO, it is now at 123% of the levels that existed in 1750.

Last year's increase in concentrations of the gas, which can also harm the ozone layer, was bigger than the previous 12 months and higher than the average of the past decade.

What concerns scientists is the overall warming impact of all these increasing concentrations. Known as total radiative forcing, this effect has increased by 43% since 1990, and is not showing any indication of stopping.

...

"It is worth recalling that the last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO2 was three to five million years ago. Back then, the temperature was 2-3C warmer, sea level was 10-20m higher than now," said Mr Taalas.

For details see:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50504131

41

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands

« on: November 25, 2019, 02:45:33 PM »

^^
That's an amazing loss of quality protein!
What is expected to fill the gap. What source would emit fewer emissions, and what will it taste like?
Won't prices for pork spike? What will the less affluent eat?


I'm amazed, and somehow disturbed.
I need more time to consider this.
Terry

TerryM don´t worry. 

Nederlandse export landbouwproducten in 2018 ruim € 90 miljard. In 2018 is voor een bedrag van € 90,3 miljard geëxporteerd aan landbouwgoederen. Dat is een lichte groei van 0,2% ten opzichte van 2017 (€ 90,1 miljard). Nederland is de op één na grootste landbouwexporteur van de wereld, na de Verenigde Staten.

https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/actueel/nieuws/2019/01/18/nederlandse-export-landbouwproducten-in-2018-ruim-90-miljard

Dutch agricultural export was worth 90 billion euros in 2018. We are the second biggest exporter worldwide after the US...and we are about 230 times smaller.

This does not include pig farming but the overall idea is the same. We export stuff so we can export less. In the netherlands we only eat choice parts of the animal. We don´t really do organ meat much so that was sold to france/southern europe. And recently we got export permission to export pigs again to China where they use all parts of it so you can sell all the other parts too them.

https://edepot.wur.nl/464128

The link above is a report on animal farming. For pigs see page 43.
It´s in dutch but google translate should work.

There are several ways to argue about this. One is the claim that we are actually efficient in emissions compared to most other countries and this is true but that still does not mean we have to produce their food or at least not as much as we do now.

As for pork prices...there is a huge ASF problem and there is not enough pork in the world for the chinese so we will see what that does in the short term for prices.

PS: the earlier concept version of the law had 120 million earmarked for buyouts and 40 million for ´innovation´. The 120 million is enough to buy out about 40 pig farms.

https://www.brabantsemilieufederatie.nl/nieuws/bmf-pleit-voor-verplicht-oplossen-stankoverlast-varkenshouderij/

42

Consequences / Re: Floods

« on: November 25, 2019, 01:27:29 PM »

Impact of the astronomical lunar 18.6-yr tidal cycle on El-Niño and Southern Oscillation

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-33526-4

See the ENSO 2019 thread for some more EN/LN research. There is this one tied to the lunar cycle, another paper by chinese scientists using machine learning and i am pretty sure there is also a paper from European scientists who have a method to extend the forecast...think it has at least one scientist from Potsdam. Both the lunar cycle and the euro paper point to EN in 2020.

If anyone stumbles across this paper please post a link in 2019 ENSO thread or here, thanks.

43

Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?

« on: November 25, 2019, 12:56:54 PM »

I’m worried’: Alaska’s ice cellars melting due to climate change after being used to store food for generations

...

Ranging from small arctic root cellars to spacious, wood-lined underground chambers, ice cellars are typically stocked with vast amounts of whale, walrus, seal and caribou.

These chambers, usually built 10 to 12 feet below the surface, have long been used to age subsistence food to perfection and ensure a steady supply during the sparser months, which is critical for survival.

...

“I’m worried,” said Gordon Brower, a Utquiagvik whaling captain whose family owns two ice cellars.

One is more than a century old more than 100 years old and used to store at least two tonnes whale meat set aside for community feasts. The other, built in 1955, is used to feed Mr Brower and his family.

He recently asked his son to retrieve some whale meat from the one of the cellars, and discovered both were in a bad state.

“He came back and said: ‘Dad, there’s a pool of blood and water at the bottom,’” said Mr Brower, who is now housing the community’s meat under a tarpaulin sheet above ground.

for details see:
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-permafrost-alaska-ice-cellars-melting-inupiat-food-storage-whaling-a9216571.html

44

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands

« on: November 24, 2019, 01:18:18 PM »

Varkenshouders in het zuiden van het land krijgen als ze overgaan op sanering veel meer geld per varken dan bedrijven in het oosten. De subsidieregeling voor het uitkopen van varkensboeren, 'warme sanering' genoemd, is in het leven geroepen om de stankoverlast en stikstofuitstoot van de sector te verminderen. Het ministerie van Landbouw maakte de tarieven van de subsidieregeling donderdag bekend.

Iemand die in het zuiden van het land tot sanering overgaat, ontvangt 151 euro per varken. In het oosten van het land ligt de vergoeding per varken een stuk lager: op 52 euro. De vergoeding per varken is berekend door Wageningen University & Research.

De reden voor het grote verschil in prijs per varken is een verschil in vraag en aanbod: in het oosten kan een varkenshouder nog volop varkensrechten kopen, in het zuiden zijn ze juist nog amper te krijgen. Het is voor boeren niet mogelijk om varkensrechten uit de andere regio te kopen.

https://www.nu.nl/economie/6012556/varkenshouder-in-het-zuiden-krijgt-bij-sanering-veel-meer-geld-per-varken.html

also see
https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/veehouderij/duurzame-varkenshouderij/subsidieregeling-sanering-varkenshouderij

180 million euros are reserved for a buy out of pig farmers. The program is voluntary and the compensation depends on which of the two main areas the farmer is in. The prize in the south is higher because you cannot buy new pig farming rights for the area.

The aim is to reduce nitrogen emissions and smell problems too.

45

Policy and solutions / Re: Policy and solutions in the Netherlands

« on: November 24, 2019, 01:06:15 PM »

2030 was already the end date for the gas field. This has now been pulled forward to mid 2022.

The field will not be dismantled so we can use it if needed in a very cold winter in the 2020s.

At least we acknowledged that we cannot use this resource for much longer then 2030 for a long time. On paper we were committed but nothing much happened but increased earthquake damage forced the politicians hand...then again russian nat gas should be coming soon and that could have factored in but it is not something they talk about.

46

The rest / Re: Astronomical news

« on: November 24, 2019, 12:48:16 PM »

Earth could have been tagged as a planet with life billions of years ago by aliens with pretty good satellites.

There is enough wiggle room in points 3 to 5 not to rule that out.

But what then? Do you send a ´space cruiser´ with some ´scout saucers´with pilots to look at it detail?
Probably not because space travel takes a lot of time even if you are really quick.

So you can send probes. A solar sail and a tiny high tech computer with a quantum entangled transmitter and some scanning tech beyond our wildest dreams.

The travel time point is interesting. We would be more interesting as a research target if we move nearer to their planet over time.

So i don´t think we can rule out aliens but there is no reason why they would fly around in the atmosphere or visit in person so these UFOs are something else.

47

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news

« on: November 24, 2019, 12:41:56 PM »

Nothing yuck about old skeletons. I once visited the Capuchin Crypt in Rome now that was something else but still not yuck.

48

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction

« on: November 24, 2019, 10:44:26 AM »

Now all that is left to do is to fix the link. 

As a wise man once said: You have received the information now act on it

49

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction

« on: November 24, 2019, 10:42:23 AM »

We know H.Sap is much more numerous then the others. They made babies with Neanderthals and Denisovans (And Neanderthals and Denisovans did too before they met the H.Sap) so i think they were just mixed in.

Also i don´t think conquering was a thing then...

50

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o

« on: November 24, 2019, 09:56:44 AM »

The questions should relate to ice/climate/global warming i think.

For this one just look up the human digestive system on wikipedia (english, the dutch entry is not as good).

Re 1992: maxing out in 2002 would have been a good idea. The old target was basically 1C warming max and that was shifted for non climate reasons. From 2003 on the arctic permafrost is already a source and not a sink and that was one of the things that we should have prevented.