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Messages - Rod

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1
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: Today at 02:40:05 AM »
S1 is going to have a long swim back to shore.

However, I have been following this researcher for a while, and the tagged bears always seem to make it back.  They can swim really long distances.

He has also been saying that this year the polar bears in the Hudson seem to be doing well.  The longer the ice lasts and they can stay at sea, the better off they are.  It is when they get to land that they have trouble finding food.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 01:44:45 AM »
Neven, I am sorry for your loss. 

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 16, 2019, 06:17:19 AM »
Maybe I misunderstood him, but I thought he was talking about the ESS.  I don’t think there are any glaciers over there calving ice bergs, but I’m happy to be corrected if I’m wrong.  🤔

4
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 16, 2019, 05:53:24 AM »
No prepping for me.

Survival: I'm 1m70 (5Ft7); 61 Kg; Blood pressure 120/80 mmHg; Total lung capacity 8L; No pain; I can jump over the saddle of my bike and land on my feet; Very athletic; I can walk on my hands and more gymnastics; I am fast, flexible and very strong.



LOL!   I’m in Gerontocrat’s army and while you are jumping over your bicycle we are going to steal your wife and take your food!  Now what? 

This thread has become totally ridiculous 😂😂😂

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 16, 2019, 02:59:40 AM »

Here's a screenshot of a big piece that I was following in the ESS because it created a trail in the floating ice. At first I thought a ship caused this open water, but then I found this "island" I can't find on any map. The water is about 20 meters deep there according to google earth, so then I was thinking it could be an iceberg?

Edit; And if these are iceberg, what damage do they do to the methane hydrates? Don't they disturb them while they scrape over the bottom?

Dr. Natalia Shakhova has photographed ice scouring on the subsea surface on the ESAS.  I have always been curious about what caused it, and when.  The floe you are following would not fit the definition of an iceberg, and it certainly does not extend 20 meters deep.

That is not to say that things are not bad in the ESS.   We know from Shakova’s 2017 paper the subsea permafrost is melting in the ESS.  But, that is a topic for another thread and we don’t want to make Neven mad. 😝

That floe you are following is not likely to last much longer, and you can be comfortable that it has not disturbed any methane hydrates 20 meters below the surface.  At best, it might be 2-3 meters thick. 
 

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 16, 2019, 02:44:25 AM »
These weak storms are NOT not going to do shit.
They are going to do it in fact, which is accelerating by several days the demise of peripheral ice come the time.

There was a paper published in I think 2016 or 2017 on this point.  I have looked everywhere and can not find it.   The researchers were on a ship in the ESS and a small storm came in.  They were able to document, through actual measurements,  extreme melting under cloudy skies. 

I wish I could post a link to the paper.  Someone on here might have the reference handy. The important part, as Sterks notes, even small storms this time of year can do a lot of damage!

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 15, 2019, 04:47:41 AM »
Every thing you have listed is important.  There is no magic person who can put them all into context and predict what the ice will do. 

Unfortunately, we are all learning just like the scientists are.

Climate change is a bitch, and she is mysterious. 

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 15, 2019, 04:10:54 AM »

Setting aside the unpredictable variable of the weather, it would still appear that unanticipated events may well occur in 2019 as a result of fundamental changes in the system that have not yet been appropriately understood or articulated.

More generally, is it possible here to gain some insight into how to understand a highly complex and rapidly changing system?

Just follow along like we all do.  No one has figured out any magic formula for predicting what the ice will do. We watch and compare and speculate, then we see what actually happens.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 15, 2019, 03:53:06 AM »
edmountain mentioned this earlier, but I think it is very important and worth repeating. The CAA is heating up even though it has been covered in clouds. 

This is an all time record at the northern most weather station. The lower temps in the channels are because of the ice, but it will be melting.

We could see a lift off of the ice from the CAA this year.  That will be significant if it happens.

10
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 14, 2019, 04:11:27 AM »
Rod,

Stop with the amateur mind reading.

....

That said, maybe some people think a newbie should just shut up and listen and not participate until after the world is condemned to a shitty outcome? We can agree to disagree about that.

I don't aspire to be popular and liked by anyone but I'm not doing anything with the intention of pissing anyone else off either. I'm not a troll. An asshole? OK. But not a troll. I'm genuine and transparent (which may be worse depending on your perspective).

Thanks for pointing out that I screwed up the quotation marks in that recent comment. I fixed it asap.

This is bull shit.  We have all supported your right to post your theories even as a newbie.   I went to war for you with A-team when he tried to shut you up. 

I’m getting discouraged by the way you continuously say things that are on the fringe, and then pretend to be insulted when people point out your mistakes. 

It has become very disruptive.

11
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: July 14, 2019, 02:23:36 AM »
Rich, I have stuck up for you several times this season.  Even when you pissed off A-Team with your ridiculous theories. 

I thought you were actually concerned about Sea ice and learning,  even when you attacked Gerontocrat and others for their contributions. 

Now I’m starting to think you are just here to concern Troll. 

There are plenty of places on Reddit and Facebook to do that. 

You have been way more disruptive than Hyperion ever was.  Please take your BS elsewhere.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 02:00:42 AM »
Rich, you just edited your post to make it accurate.  When you do that you are supposed to say, “Sorry I messed up with the quotations.”   

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 01:35:31 AM »
If UCMiami says there is a “very low probability” of a sensational finish in 2019, then I would say he is just guessing.

But I have read through his post history a couple of times now, and I do not see where he said what you quoted. 



14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 14, 2019, 01:05:53 AM »
I keep coming back to A-Team's May 23 post that shows six months of fairly steady transpolar drift.  This means all the ice between, basically, the North Pole and the East Siberian Sea (ESS) is first year ice (FYI) and therefore 'easy' to melt, except for that ice that is now in the highest latitudes (due to shortest melt season being there).  Does this make the possibility of a lot of it going 'poof' more likely than other years? I think so.  The Laptev Bite, being where some of this FYI was, may reach the NP, or at least closer to it than has happened in recent decades (centuries).

The comments about the CAB being protected are just silly.  The extent numbers are higher in the CAB because the ice keeps getting exported through the Greenland/Svalbard/FJL line. Once that ice passes that line, it is toast.  Even if it takes a while to melt. 

The Russian side is going to bite deep towards the pole.  Even in this “moderate” weather there is a lot of heat in Siberia.

It is going to come down to whether or not the Beaufort starts clearing out quick.  The line of open water north of the CAA indicates that if it does, the ice could become an ice island this year.

If that happens, look out! 

We don’t know what the weather will bring in the next few weeks.  But, we do know the MYI is significantly lower this year than it was in 2012.  The fact that the ice is being exported to the Atlantic does not help matters, even if it helps keep the extent numbers higher. 



15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 11:52:07 PM »
So Be cause, has at the bottom of his posts 2007-2012-2016-2019?  which clearly indicated top melt years 5, then 4 then 3 years apart.  the majority of contributors think that 2019 will a top 3 year for area.  If so does that make the prediction correct, and if so does that make the next record melt year 2021?

Seems legit 🤔

16
Science / Re: 2019 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: July 13, 2019, 08:11:05 PM »
Nice chart. What's the slope of the line? Eyeballing suggests growth rate (of the annual increase) of about 0.7 ppm per decade. I.e. the regression would predict an annual growth rate of about 3.3 ppm in a decade (2.6 + 0.7).

Sorry for the delay.  Slope is roughly 0.07 ppm per year or as you estimated 0.70 ppm per decade.  Regardless of emissions I think the slope may drop a hair the next couple of years because the 2015-2016 spike was so large.  I'll include the slope on the chart next month.

Below is an interesting chart that has been circulating on Twitter for a few weeks.  I think it does a nice job of showing the “rate of increase of the rate of increase.”   

17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: July 13, 2019, 06:37:11 PM »
The Mississippi has breached the levee in Myrtle Grove, LA, a little bit south of New Orleans. 

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 13, 2019, 02:06:29 AM »
You left out the part where he said:

“But I guess you never know.”

19
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: July 12, 2019, 05:09:18 PM »
Early arrival of spring disrupts the mutualism between plants and pollinators

Quote
Global warming has affected the phenology of diverse organisms, such as the timing of plant flowering and leafing, animal hibernation and migration. This is particularly so in cold ecosystems, increasing the risk of disturbing mutual relationships between living organisms. It could also affect the relationship between plants and insects that carry pollen, but few studies have been conducted and the subject remains largely unknown.

The researchers examined Corydailis ambigua growing in cold-temperature forests in Hokkaido in northern Japan, and bumblebees, which collect nectar from the flowers. Usually the bloom of the flowers and emergence of the bumblebees are in sync.

They monitored the plant and insect for 19 years in a natural forest of Hokkaido, recording the timing of snowmelt, flowering and emergence of bumblebees as well as the seed-set rate. In this way, they were able to observe how the snowmelt timing and ambient temperatures affect the local phenology.

Long-term monitoring revealed that snowmelt timing dictates when Corydailis ambigua flowers. The earlier the snowmelt, the earlier the flowering. The researchers also found that bumblebees, which hibernate underground during winter, become active when soil temperatures reach 6 C. When the snowmelt is early, flowering tends to occur before the bees emerge, creating a mismatch. The wider the mismatch, the lower the seed-set rate due to insufficient pollination.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-07/hu-eao071219.php


20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 05:03:38 AM »
Those animations don’t really address my point.  I’m sure a lot more melting will happen. The question is whether or not it will beat 2012.

In order for this year to beat 2012 it has a lot of catch up in the Beaufort and CAA.  Maybe it happens, maybe not.  I still think this year has a better than 50% chance of setting the new record. 

However, the Beaufort is a huge potential heat sink that was turned on in 2012 and not so far this year.


21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 12, 2019, 04:17:44 AM »
I have been saying this for a few weeks now, and every time I do, very smart people tell me I’m silly and the ice in the Beaufort is moving into a kill zone and will melt out soon.

But it has still not happened.  I’m still thinking this might be a record year, but it won’t happen unless the Beaufort clears out.  We are now in mid-July and it is quickly running out of time. 

The Beaufort is the key to whether or not we hit a record.  If it warms up and melts all of that ice quickly, I agree we have a good chance of a new record. But, if all of those chunks of ice continue swirling around for a couple of more weeks, I think it will be hard for this year to beat 2012.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 09, 2019, 07:07:11 AM »
You also need to give people credit when you copy their work off of Twitter.  You keep copying Rick Thoman’s graphs without properly giving him credit.   He watches these forums.  You need to provide his name when you post his work so that people know where it came from.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 09, 2019, 06:54:47 AM »
The main errors were in the Hudson.  I think everything else is pretty much correct.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 09, 2019, 06:49:46 AM »
AM2.  That is Kevin Pluck’s map.  We have already discussed it in the melting season thread and established it has errors.

I contacted him on Twitter, and he posted on the forum a few days ago and explained his data set. 

He used a dataset that can not be reliably used for climatological purposes.  That is why the Hudson area is wrong.

There are several posts discussing this in the melting season thread.

To be clear, I think Kevin Puck is a really smart guy who makes great images!  However, this one is just not completely accurate.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 05:47:58 AM »
Both the GFS and European models are trending towards a cool and stormy central Arctic ocean starting about 72 hours out. We'll see how this all plays out. Has the damage been done already or will cooler weather give the ice a reprieve? Or will the models fail to predict some critical thing?

Will that come down as rain or snow?

If it comes down as snow, I think we would all be shocked. Cooler cloudier weather this time of year means rain and storms. I’m not saying snow is impossible, but highly unlikely. 

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 04:32:54 AM »
The GFS is trending towards a cool Arctic

Does that mean cyclones, or cool and calm?

I’m totally confused too.  I think the take home message is that this is an expert interpreting long term model results.  His interpretations are accurate, but long term models suck so we will wait and see what happens.  😝

27
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: What's new in Greenland?
« on: July 09, 2019, 04:18:18 AM »
so some guy here in a forum that deals with global warming and sea-ice loss is seriously spending time and energy to discuss who to use greenland sand in the tropics, means even more stuff to transport all around the globe without as real need ?


Sarcasm gets absolutely lost in this forum.  Every time someone makes a joke or a light handed comment  it turns into a challenge.  It was a comment on a recent paper Mag.  Nothing more.  🤔

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: July 09, 2019, 03:44:24 AM »
July 8 is very clear in Worldview for both 2012 and 2019 on the pacific side.  These are the comparisons that continue to strike me as the most important currently if we are talking about “extent” as our endpoint.

If the Beaufort becomes a killing zone as most believe it will, it looks like 2019 will definitely beat 2012 on this side of the arctic.

The current situation around Wrangel Island is incredible.




29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 09, 2019, 02:03:43 AM »
Dr. Judah Cohen has updated his Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts. 

It is a little too technical for my understanding, but some of our weather experts might enjoy taking a look at it.  The link is below:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/


30
Thank you Juan 😝

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 04:25:38 AM »
Record high temperatures are driving those fires, and causing the record ice melt. 

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 08, 2019, 02:59:13 AM »
I find these two images remarkable.  This is an example where a picture (or two) says a thousand words.  The Pacific side is on fire right now 🔥

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 03:43:55 AM »
That is a good list.  I’m pretty sure we try to address all of them.  If you read through the comments on this thread, I think you will find answers to your questions.

36
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 07, 2019, 03:08:47 AM »
Incredible image posted by Zack today showing some of the Greenland melt ponds.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 02:13:00 AM »
The ice looks like shit.

Agreed 😬

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 02:11:13 AM »
I’m going to go out on a limb, but all of those broken and fractured floes in the Beaufort have been swirling around for almost a month now with no noticeable decrease in size. 

Bottom melt will finish all those floes by some time in August. It is 2-3 m thick ice constantly imported from CAB. Not something to happen in a couple of weeks. It will ruin your extent numbers? Not sure, but it will definitely finish with some of the thickest blocks around. This didn’t happen before the 21st Century, so we can call it a “millennial” born out of AGW.


I’m grasping at straws here hoping things won’t be too terrible.  I’m always torn on whether the new record will be good or bad. 

Maybe it gets more people to realize that AGW is a big deal and we should do something about it?  In the age of Trump I doubt it.  If we need a BOE for a wake up call I hope it waits until he is long gone! 

I have kids I worry about, and things are not looking bright for their future 😥

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 01:27:37 AM »


P.S. Rod, I keep telling ya, the Beaufort ice *is* melting and is doomed. ;) Just look at the SSTs there, not to mention the SSTs in between the adjacent dispersed CAB floes is also rising now...

If you are right, this will be a record year.   But, they are going to have to melt soon for that to happen.

The good thing about the melting season is that it is very short!

Today, the Beaufort is cloudy, but the floes that we can track between the clouds have not changed in size. 

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 07, 2019, 12:54:41 AM »
I’m going to go out on a limb, but all of those broken and fractured floes in the Beaufort have been swirling around for almost a month now with no noticeable decrease in size. 

I was criticized for saying that the Beaufort does not appear to have become a kill zone because the ice is taking so long to melt. 

Maybe that will change and those floes will go “poof.”   But, if the fractured ice in the Beaufort holds on for a couple more weeks, it might be hard for this season to win on extent. 

It will clearly be a terrible year for the ice.  I have been saying that since May.  However, the Beaufort currently holds the key.  The export in the Atlantic seems likely to continue keeping numbers higher in that region.  The lift off from the CAA is very troubling!   We might have an ice island at the end of the melt season. 

But if the Beaufort floes continue to stand pat, I’m not sure this year beats 2012 on extent. 

If some strong storms move into the CAB in August I will rethink my position, but trying to be optimistic, I think the floes in the Beaufort are helping right now.

EDIT: I should add that Friv stated this a couple weeks ago when he said the ice was being “protected.”  I gave him a hard time back then, but now I’m willing to eat my words and agree he was right.

41
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: July 07, 2019, 12:14:45 AM »
Very sad things being seen in the Bering this year. 

42
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: July 06, 2019, 11:30:00 PM »
I think Oren made a joke, and that joke should not be used as a basis to derail this thread.

There are other places to discuss the Yellowstone geysers. 😝

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: July 06, 2019, 10:35:45 PM »
Below is the tweet from Judah Cohen. It was quoted in post 3284 in the melting thread.

I was also trying to figure out what FSW means.  I think Lord Vader will need to tell us.  But, Sterks’ second guess seems reasonable. 

44
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: July 06, 2019, 10:04:58 PM »
I just noticed that the NWS forecast post by Vox indicates the probability of formation is low. 

However, there are a lot of weather forecasters still posting model runs indicating a tropical cyclone might form from a low pressure system in the Midwest.   If that happens, it would certainly be “unique.”   Maybe it has happened before, but I don’t ever remember seeing anything like that. 

45
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: July 06, 2019, 09:34:12 PM »
If this actually develops as predicted, then these comments should probably be moved to the Weird Weather thread. 🤔

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 07:11:29 PM »
The above "red line" charts don't make sense to me, or I'm missing something.

If you go to NSIDC concentration, they show Hudson to be almost ice free for this date in 2012, with a few lonely chunks.

The spatial comparison tool for extent shows the same thing.

Something is off here.

This is what I get when I run the NSIDC comparison tool.  Same as you are describing.  It looks like he either messed up on the Hudson, or he is using a different data set.   

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 06:11:39 PM »
Kevin Pluck posted a nice map on Twitter today comparing the July 5, 2019 extent with July 5, 2012.

The 2012 sea ice edge is in Red.  @kevpluck


48
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 06, 2019, 05:43:37 PM »
8 million Olympic size swimming pools in 5 days ...

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 02:22:21 AM »
Someone up above, or in another thread, commented on the air temperature today at the airport close to Utqiaġvik   

I can’t find the post now, but it seems that Rick Thoman agrees. 

This is a big time heat wave for Alaska!

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 06, 2019, 12:59:28 AM »
While we have all been focusing on the extreme heat on the Pacific side, the Atlantic side is heating up as well.

Might be some new records in Svalbard in the next few days. 

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