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Messages - Rod

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 03:48:52 AM »
PS. In case it wasn’t clear, I would rather read posts from someone who understands the science and posts his theories, even if I don’t agree with them, than keep reading all the BS from people who have made no effort to understand the science.

The discussion on this forum about the condition of the ice over the last few weeks has not been grounded in science. 

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 16, 2019, 03:15:13 AM »
Bbr - you have some crazy predictions, but at least you always try to back them up and have some data to support your theories. 

Most of the posts on this forum for the last couple of months are not even worth reading. 

It is too bad.  I have loved following these discussions for the last few years. Anyway, keep pitching your theory. It is probably wrong in my opinion, but at least you provide something to consider.

Most of the other posts these days don’t provide anything other than opinions that have no factual basis.  That is why I stopped commenting, and why I don’t read these forums much anymore.

Good luck to you Bbr!   I have always respected your tenacity.  Keep posting the data so that others can consider what it means. 

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: September 01, 2019, 05:51:40 AM »
The ice looks like shit!

Extent has an 85% margin of error. 

Regardless of where the extent numbers turn out this year, the actual amount of ice is about as low as it has ever been.  It is obvious to anyone who takes the time to study Worldview. 





4
The forum / Re: WHY THE CRAZY QUESTIONS TO POST AND ENTER SITE
« on: August 26, 2019, 03:34:40 AM »
Maybe there should be a quiz before you can post to rule out stupid comments???   It might shut me up sometimes 😝

PS. I hope this does not turn out to be my most liked comment. 🤔

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 26, 2019, 03:04:13 AM »
I forgot to add this post from Lars Kaleschke today. It shows areas where extent is likely to start dropping soon. 


6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 26, 2019, 02:55:32 AM »
I just have one very scientific thing to say ... the ice looks like Shit!

The Laptev and Beaufort are getting hammered.  The extent in Beaufort is going up, but the ice that is getting flushed into the south Beaufort is the last of the multi year 5+ ice. 

This year is unlikely to break records for extent (although it is still too early to rule that out for certain) but, the ice going into the freezing season is going to be about the worst it has ever been. 

Just play around on Worldview for a few minutes.  It looks terrible.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 25, 2019, 04:18:19 AM »
Thank you for your wisdom philopek, we were all really struggling to understand what was happening until you got here and sorted it all out for us. 🙌

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 25, 2019, 01:45:25 AM »
I did not know he was a scientist. There are lots of people who say things that are not credible this time of the year.

If he is a scientist, I apologize for being rude.  But, I still think he was wrong in his assessment. Lots of us have science backgrounds and are able to understand what is happening.

Philopek, I’m sorry for insulting you if you are a scientist. But, I don’t think your conclusions were correct.  Anyway, I apologize for being rude. 

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 24, 2019, 11:34:21 PM »

What has caught my eye from the current GFS wind forecasts is a strengthening connection between the low over the CAA and the low SE of Greenland (image attached|). They seem to be creating a significant air flow (even if not a storm) from the relatively warm mid-Atlantic into and across the Arctic Ocean.


It is a very strong storm blowing warm winds across the ice edges and compacting the ice that has been scattered all season. 

I wish I would have taken a screen shot of the storm warnings for Resolute, Nunavut last night as the low moved through.  They got hammered!   The arctic is not the UK.  Good luck wind surfing through a storm like this.

It is unlikely that 2019 will catch 2012 this late in the season.  However, this storm is doing a lot of damage.   

EDIT: to be clear, I was agreeing with your post Gerontocrat, and also responding to philopek’s post above.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 24, 2019, 09:58:55 PM »

It's way too late in the season to have an effect on the minimum of this year and where the weakest ice is, north of Laptev, it's quite calm now and it could be that most of the ice that's still around there will survive.


Looks quite calm around the edges of the ice pack 🤔

11
Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 17, 2019, 04:37:51 AM »
bbr, I can't believe the crazy or ignorant comments. How many warnings do you need? Most of us lost any respect for your opinions a long time ago.

Bbr can be rude.  We can all agree with that. I wish he would not lash out the way he does. However, he has a theory that he believes.  He tries to support it, and everyone piles on him every time he speaks. 

I don’t agree with bbr’s theory, but I respect his opinion and he is one of the most dedicated people on this forum when it comes to trying to learn what is happening.

You guys who want to disagree with anything he says are not always right.  He is good at predicting weather and he gets things right sometimes.

Let him have his pet theory, and quit always attacking him.  I think if he was not always so defensive he would not say the rude things he says.

Of all the people on this forum, I pay special attention to what he posts.  Not because I believe his conclusions, but because I believe he is good at identifying important data that we should consider.

12
Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 05:35:43 AM »
I’m not taking sides in this discussion, but this was an article that really pissed me off today! 

Lowe's spent billions on share buybacks, zero on severance for laid-off workers

Quote
Lowe's is laying off thousands of workers after hiking quarterly dividends and spending billions to repurchase company shares.
The home improvement chain isn't offering severance to laid-off workers, some of whom have been at Lowe's for a decade or more.
Lowe's last December announced plans to buy back $10 billion worth of stock, according to TrimTabs Investment Research.

Quote
The sudden job losses are hitting some workers hard. "I'm behind in my house note and my property taxes," said Patricia Wilkerson, 59, of Dayton, Texas, who said she got no notice before losing her part-time, seasonal position at Lowe's and is receiving no severance. "Corporations are stretching people trying to get more with less."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lowes-layoffs-2019-retailer-spent-billions-on-share-buybacks-zero-on-severance-for-laid-off-workers/



13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 13, 2019, 04:29:24 AM »

Those blue zones are real areas of freezing temperatures at the time the satellite made its measurements.

I’m not familiar with the map that Friv posted, and I don’t know where that data comes from.  But the blue areas seem consistent with what we have seen on worldview in bands 3-6-7 over the last few days.

I wish Sterks would not have quit, but his fight with TeaPotty was over a completely different area than the blue zones in that image. 

People need to read carefully, consider their arguments, and then present them in a respectful way. 

The battle between Sterks and TeaPotty on this issue was just silly!   I’m not sure they even would have disagreed with each other if they took the time to compare the data and think about what it meant- AND MOST IMPORTANTLY ITS LIMITATIONS. 

Too many people on here forget that no data set on the arctic is perfect.  Worldview is the best we have but it is only 2D and mostly covered in clouds. 

We all like to post our opinions and sometimes we get jumped on when others disagree.  That is the nature of the internet.  Let’s just each try to be a little more polite in our criticisms and a little more understanding in the limitations of the data. 

I’m tired of seeing people delete their accounts. 


14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 04:55:07 AM »
I’m really surprised that the lightning strikes 300 miles from the North Pole yesterday did not cause more discussion on the forum. 

The scientists on climate Twitter could not find any instance of lightning so far north.

It was a strange, and in my opinion important, event.  The arctic is changing!

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 01:39:10 AM »
Area data is notoriously difficult to interpret this time of the year. The graphs that Gerontocrat posts show what they show, but it is difficult to draw conclusions about melting or freezing based solely upon the graphs. 

As shown below, a strong storm positioned itself over the Beaufort on August 6.  A break in the clouds on August 9 shows that there is no freezing.  The view from August 10 shows clouds with ice crystals positioned in that area. 

That region of the Beaufort has held strong all season, but the last few days have seen the floes turned into ice stringers.   It is doubtful that ice will last much longer regardless of what the area charts are currently showing. 

I’m not posting this to make a prediction about whether 2019 will beat 2012, but it does look like there will be some significant loss in the Beaufort extent numbers in the next few days. 

16
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 11, 2019, 03:47:31 AM »
Understood Neven.  And, again, thank you for this wonderful website. It is the last thing I look at before I go to sleep and the first thing I check when I wake up in the morning. 

I am old enough to have been involved in the internet since it was born.  I know from other forums I have participated in that it is very hard for one person to moderate all of the BS.  But, if anyone can do it, you can.

Thanks again for this great website!   I will just try my best to ignore the crazy people posts. 

17
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 10, 2019, 07:28:05 AM »
Neven, I feel so bad for your unfortunate loss this summer.  I feel equally bad that in your absence these forums have divulged into childish BS.  This forum was your creation, and is an important part of the study of AGW that is watched by many people worldwide.

My blood pressure rises every time I log on because there is almost no real science being discussed anymore.   Even on the main threads, people are pushing crazy theories that anyone who studies this stuff knows are wrong.  That makes these forums look bad when outsiders look in to see what people are saying.

Oren is probably the most knowledgeable person left who still regularly posts.  But he is so nice that people ignore him even when he tries to point out errors and put down fights. 

I know that this forum is yours and you have always managed it yourself.  However, I think if you would make Oren, or someone like him, a moderator and give them some authority it would make people listen to him and make your life easier, and make these forums better. 

I thank you very much for what you have created!   I am in no way trying to be critical, but I think if you enlisted some help it would make things easier for you and better for your audience. 

Just my thoughts.  Thank you again for all of your hard work!   


18
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 10, 2019, 05:59:37 AM »
It is important to remember that SMB is always positive (at least so far).   The losses from the Greenland ice sheet come from other processes such as glacier calving. 

This might change moving forward, but so far, all the ice lost to surface melting in the summer is gained back by snow accumulation. 


19
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 08, 2019, 06:34:11 AM »
There is a new data product Dr. Mottram seems excited about that should be out soon.

20
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 08, 2019, 06:31:19 AM »
Temperatures have come down, and we are talking again about albedo.  These are the current maps.  Posted about 12 hours ago. 

21
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 08, 2019, 05:50:49 AM »
Well ...... That was unfortunate! 😝

A CRASHED ISRAELI LUNAR LANDER SPILLED TARDIGRADES ON THE MOON

Quote
IT WAS JUST before midnight on April 11 and everyone at the Israel Aerospace Industries mission control center in Yehud, Israel, had their eyes fixed on two large projector screens. On the left screen was a stream of data being sent back to Earth by Beresheet, its lunar lander, which was about to become the first private spacecraft to land on the moon. The right screen featured a crude animation of Beresheet firing its engines as it prepared for a soft landing in the Sea of Serenity. But only seconds before the scheduled landing, the numbers on the left screen stopped. Mission control had lost contact with the spacecraft, and it crashed into the moon shortly thereafter.

Quote
Half a world away, Nova Spivack watched a livestream of Beresheet’s mission control from a conference room in Los Angeles. As the founder of the Arch Mission Foundation, a nonprofit whose goal is to create “a backup of planet Earth,” Spivack had a lot at stake in the Beresheet mission. The spacecraft was carrying the foundation’s first lunar library, a DVD-sized archive containing 30 million pages of information, human DNA samples, and thousands of tardigrades, those microscopic “water bears” that can survive pretty much any environment—including space.

Quote
But when the Israelis confirmed Beresheet had been destroyed, Spivack was faced with a distressing question: Did he just smear the toughest animal in the known universe across the surface of the moon?

Quote
In the weeks following the Beresheet crash, Spivack pulled together the Arch Mission Foundation’s advisers in an attempt to determine whether the lunar library had survived the crash. Based on their analysis of the spacecraft’s trajectory and the composition of the lunar library, Spivack says he is quite confident that the library—a roughly DVD-sized object made of thin sheets of nickel—survived the crash mostly or entirely intact. In fact, the decision to include DNA samples and tardigrades in the lunar library may have been key to its survival.

“For the first 24 hours we were just in shock,” Spivack says. “We sort of expected that it would be successful. We knew there were risks but we didn’t think the risks were that significant.”

https://www.wired.com/story/a-crashed-israeli-lunar-lander-spilled-tardigrades-on-the-moon/

22
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 05, 2019, 04:40:48 AM »
Friv is just being a smart ass.  His forecasts never turn out like he thinks they will, and he does not like to be confronted with real scientists.

23
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 05, 2019, 02:38:26 AM »
Dr. Mottram has spoken and she did not dispute the volume numbers. I expect that this week we will get more info from her and Professor Box about what they think it means. 

I am surprised by the pushback on information from Twitter.  That is where the scientists speak.

It is nice that Gerontocrat copies and pastes the DMI graphs here each day, but what the scientists in charge of interpreting that data say is much more important than his speculation. 

This was apparent when Shared Humanity indicated that he did not understand they track mass gain.  That feature is inherent in the charts Gerontocrat posts. 

If you guys don’t want any more info from Twitter, then I will stop posting it.   But you are about 10 years behind technology if you don’t understand how important that platform is. 

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 04, 2019, 04:42:49 AM »
These types of studies cause me concern.  I have long thought the arctic ice will die from below, rather than from the weather above. 

So far, only the Barents and Laptev have shown a documented breakdown of the halocline.  But, common sense would say it is likely happening elsewhere. 

EDIT: before someone jumps on me, these are the only two places I have seen documented evidence of a breakdown of the halocline.  It might have happened elsewhere and I missed it.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 04, 2019, 03:07:07 AM »
There is more than enough heat in the deep water to melt the ice and keep the arctic ice free year round. 

However, the heat can not move upwards through the halocline. 

The halocline is 50 meters thick (at least) and is very difficult to breach.  If it ever happens, look out!   The arctic will be a completely different place. 



26
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 03, 2019, 04:47:57 AM »
I certainly did not mean to be rude Renerpho, and I am sorry if it came off that way. 

Your post was on point and answers DrTskoul’s question.  I was just pointing out the possible new record is something different. 

Dr. Mottram is a scientist with DMI.  She is pretty much the most authoritative figure on Greenland ice sheet melt of anyone who regularly comments on it.  I would accept DMI’s data over NSIDC when it comes to the Greenland ice sheet. 

I’m not sure how they calculate volume, but they have a way.  I don’t doubt the information in the article from AGU Eos, but I will wait until it is verified from other scientists. 

27
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 03, 2019, 04:34:07 AM »
This ~4,200 km² piece of ice has resisted the ongoing breakup in that region for quite a while now.

That same piece seems to show up year after year.  It must be caused by some unique bathymetry in that area. But that is sea ice, and not related to the ice sheet melting described in the figures and charts above. 

28
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 03, 2019, 04:27:05 AM »
The NSIDC chart that Renerpho linked compares the melting extent between 2012 and 2019 over the ice sheet.  The purported record is volume lost which is different, and more important if true. 

AGU’s Eos is usually a pretty reliable source.  However, Ruth Mottram will have the final say based upon the DMI data. 

She knocked off for the weekend about four hours ago saying that her mentions were exploding on Twitter, and implying she needed a break.

We will need to wait and see if she verifies these numbers on Monday.

In any event, it has been a very remarkable few days of melting.   

29
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 03, 2019, 02:56:01 AM »
Greenland Ice Sheet Beats All-Time 1-Day Melt Record - Eos

https://eos.org/articles/greenland-ice-sheet-beats-all-time-1-day-melt-record

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 02, 2019, 07:26:12 AM »
<snip, this is more suited elsewhere, not here; N.>

Neven, while you were away I was "strongly encouraged" to move this daily analysis of the 2019 melt season out of the Data thread. So, I only post the data there.

I moved the analysis to this location because it is about the melt season. Though this one was very short... because there just wasn't much new to say, sometimes it's paragraphs long. Now you don't want it here.

Which thread do you think it appropriate for? 2019 vs 2012?

I enjoy your analysis.  I don’t care where it gets posted, but I hope you continue to post it.  I don’t know why there has been push back.  Lots of people speculate on here and it is fun to look at the guesses and see how they turn out. 

31
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: August 02, 2019, 06:25:00 AM »
Damn!   I accidentally stepped into one of those political threads with a bunch of old farts telling everyone how they should live their life. 

Time to get back to the science threads.

32
The rest / Re: Climate change activists should not fly
« on: August 02, 2019, 05:53:09 AM »
This subject is just silly.  Climate activists would not be able to get to meetings if they could not fly.

Michael Mann discussed this exact topic today and pointed out that flying only accounts for 3% of the carbon budget. 

People have to work.  I fly a lot for my job.  People need to take vacations and often flying is the only way to do that.

If you want people to live more responsibly, it needs to make sense to them.  Saying people should never fly is a non starter and will never happen.

Developing more fuel efficient airplanes is a possibility. 

It turns people off when extremists yell and scream nonsense.  Arguing climate activists should not fly is absolute nonsense.   How else would they live their lives and get to the meetings to voice their concerns. 

I note Greta is coming to the USA by boat.  But it is going to take her a long time and she is taking a year off of school.   I don’t agree with all of her missed school even if I do agree with her message.  At some point, when she grows up and wants to be an adult activist she will need an education and she is missing out on that right now.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 02, 2019, 05:25:39 AM »
This was posted by Zack today.  I’m not sure what thread it belongs in, but more people will see it in this one. 

Many of you already have this data, but it is a nice little cheat sheet for those of us that don’t always remember the numbers. 

I’m saving it for a quick reference guide.  Maybe others will want to as well. 

34
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 01, 2019, 03:52:42 AM »
Dr. Robert Rohde is the lead scientist at Berkeley Earth. This is pretty interesting (and worrisome):

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 31, 2019, 02:31:03 AM »
I have already simply proven the ice was already almost about to mass melt before the GAC.

So why isn't this accepted?


It is impossible to prove what would have happened in the absence of the GAC.  You, and several others have put forth compelling evidence that the ice was already in trouble before the GAC took over.

However, it is also impossible to ignore the huge drops in extent that occurred during the GAC.  Correlation does not equal causation, but that does not mean it should be ignored. 

Common sense would dictate that if you take a lot of crushed up ice and put it in a blender and shake it around, that will have an effect.  It is less clear to me that in 2012 the halocline was breached and warm waters mixed upwards.  If that had happened we might have seen a BOE.

In any event, what makes this season interesting is that we can compare what happens to the fragile ice in the absence of a GAC with what happened in 2012. 

Of course, if the weather changes again and brings strong storms into the arctic in the next couple of weeks, that will screw up our control. 

It is unfortunate, that we have to watch this experiment play out in real time on the only planet we have. 

36

If you have an agenda that you want to promote, it's not a crime to do some marketing. Once people realize that it's ok to believe that the Arctic BOE might not come for 50 years, they can approach it with a different attitude.

Groupthink is a real thing.

This asshole has been playing us.   He is straight from WUWT with a more savvy way of trying to sow discontent.   

37
Hi Rich .. just noting my oh so bad comment was to recommend you look at Uniquorn's bathymetry work .. and lo .. you were blessed by some ..  b.c.

I have looked at his work and to be honest, it's going to take time to assimilate a lot of understanding of all the aspects of the oceans that he attempts to illustrate.

That said, I was try to make an extremely simple point about very basic variables. In all the time that he has spent looking at the data, he hadn't connected the dots to the simple thing I was pointing out.

My OP preceded and prompted his contribution. His gif was an attempt to prove I was wrong and inadvertently supported my point.

I'm not pretending to be a genius, but I am trying to think critically and add value. I do try and follow Uniquorn:s work, but today I felt it worthwhile to share my own observations and hypothesis. I would not have found that from looking at his prior work.

Wikipedia

Internet troll

Quote
In Internet slang, a troll is a person who starts quarrels or upsets people on the Internet to distract and sow discord by posting inflammatory and digressive,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into displaying emotional responses[2] and normalizing tangential discussion,[3] whether for the troll's amusement or a specific gain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 30, 2019, 01:04:01 AM »
Bob Henson at Weather Underground posted a good article today about the heatwave heading for Greenland.   

Heat Wave Heads North: Massive Week of Melting Likely in Arctic

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Heat-Wave-Heads-North-Massive-Week-Melting-Likely-Arctic

He even cited Subgeometer’s forecast in post #4877.  NOTE: I can’t get the link to work when I copy and paste the quote, but if you click the link to the full article above, you will find the link to Subgeometer’s post. 

Quote
Another region that bears watching over the next few days is the area north of Greenland, just east of to where the last remaining expanses of thick multiyear sea ice are clinging to the islands clustered at the north end of the Canadian Arctic. As noted in the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, very mild air, warming even more as it descends, will be flowing off the north coast of Greenland in the next several days. Satellite imagery over the last few days shows a crack developing where a large zone of Arctic sea ice is attached to the north coast of Greenland.

39
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: July 29, 2019, 05:25:09 AM »
“More thawing weather . . . this summer than any in the past century.”  I’m not sure, but that sounds bad. 🤔

40
Consequences / Re: Effects on Arctic Wildlife
« on: July 29, 2019, 05:07:26 AM »
More sad news for arctic wildlife.

Over 200 dead reindeer found on Norway's Arctic Svalbard

https://gulfnews.com/world/europe/over-200-dead-reindeer-found-on-norways-arctic-svalbard-1.1564238906266

41
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: July 29, 2019, 04:53:14 AM »
I live in the Midwest.  I specifically plant native wildflowers for the birds and insects. 

My anecdotal observations agree 100% with this article.  The monarch butterflies are nothing like they used to be.  Even my kids mentioned it the other day. 

I do have milkweed growing in my yard and a few monarchs, but it is nothing like it was even ten years ago.  Unfortunately, milkweed is a hard plant to cultivate and you can’t buy it at garden stores.  I dug up a few plants along the road about 15 years ago and planted them in my yard.  It is an annual so it spreads by seed and never pops up where you want it to.  Most people who want pretty manicured lawns and gardens will never propagate something like wild milkweed because it is really hard to control where it decides to sprout up each year. 

The herbicides around the farms have all but wiped it out in the wild.  After I read this article I drove around on gravel roads out in the country and could not find a single milkweed plant anywhere.   

It is sad what we are losing.  Monarchs are beautiful, but they are so specialized (between needing milkweed for larva and wintering in a small area in Mexico) that I am worried they are not going to be around much longer. 

Link to the full article:

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/07/22/Scientists-scramble-to-learn-why-monarch-butterflies-are-dying-so-quickly/6961563481223/

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 28, 2019, 02:49:55 AM »
Greenland is about to get pounded.

Any upslope precip will be warm rain.

Nasty.

I think you are over reacting Friv 😝

43
These studies are always very interesting.  We all agree that the loss of the sea ice will be very bad. However, the authors assumed that the amount of cloud cover would remain constant.

That does not seem accurate based upon what we have observed.  As more open water is formed, the clouds quickly form above it.  Additionally, by the time large amounts of ice have melted, solar insulation has started to decrease significantly. 

Albedo is not the only important cooling function the ice provides.  The latent heat of fusion seems much more important based on my observations as a layperson. 

In any event, losing the sea ice will be very bad and we should all hope it does not happen. 


44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 10:52:06 PM »
With all the talk of volume, and much well-placed cynicism regarding the data, is there a time of the year the data can be considered more accurate (e.g. absence of melt ponds)? If so, perhaps then we will have a lot more info on the impact of this year's weather on volume.

PIOMAS is the best model we have, but it is still a model.  For observational data, when the ice is cold and frozen, ie. no water on top of it, the SMOS thickness data is the best we have.  Lars Kaleschke is the expert on that data product. Google his name and SMOS and you will find lots of information. 

There is a new satellite that launched last fall called ICESat-2 that will hopefully provide very accurate information about sea ice thickness.  Unfortunately, it’s gridded data product is not yet available. 

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 27, 2019, 04:20:47 AM »

And I am not sure I agree that the CAB averages >2M thickness - not sure where that number comes from.

I wondered the same thing.  The area numbers are very hard to interpret this time of the year.  They can change for many reasons, and unless he knows a Russian or American submarine commander, there is no way to know how thick the ice in the CAB is right now.
PIOMAS volume divided by NSIDC sea ice area seems the only logical way to do it without physical observations, and here it is.....

Note that it seems to have lost 1 metre of thickness since the 2000's, but at mid-July was at 2.4 metres.   Usually what happens now is that scorn is placed upon the data for being awkward.

I decided last night I was done posting in the melting thread because Rich has accomplished his purpose of turning scientific discussions into his personal activism and it pisses me off! 

But this point is important and needs to be addressed.  PIOMAS is a model.  It is helpful, but it is not real data. I work in the environmental field and deal with models everyday. 

I doubt many others here can say that.  We know PIOMAS makes many mistakes, but it is the best we have so we use it.  That does not mean we can blindly say when it predicts a certain volume of ice in a place we can clearly see on worldview is wrong we should accept its output.

Area is also notoriously bad this time of year.  That is why JAXA and NSIDC use extent to measure the summer minimum. 

Dividing a fictitious number by a known bad number does not give any real data.

The best information we have is what we see on worldview.  The next best info is the extent data that JAXA and NSIDC provide. 

Models are useful, but they are not real data. 

46
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: July 27, 2019, 01:27:23 AM »
More bad news for the ice sheet.

47
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 27, 2019, 01:21:44 AM »
Yesterday, there was a discussion on the melting thread about whether the smoke from the arctic wildfires has impacted the sea ice. 

The smoke plume from the Alaska wildfires has extended to the North Pole with heavier concentrations of aerosols on the way.   

So far, the smoke from the Siberian wildfires has stayed south of the ice. 

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 05:58:12 AM »

And I am not sure I agree that the CAB averages >2M thickness - not sure where that number comes from.

I wondered the same thing.  The area numbers are very hard to interpret this time of the year.  They can change for many reasons, and unless he knows a Russian or American submarine commander, there is no way to know how thick the ice in the CAB is right now. 

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 04:56:26 AM »
This is the latest from Zack Labe. Posted about an hour ago.  The experts seem to be in agreement that the forecast looks bad for the ice.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: July 26, 2019, 03:12:35 AM »
Does anyone know how much CO2 these fires are releasing?

A lot, and some of it is peat which means it is not accounted for in the carbon budget.  I posted some info on the Wildfire thread. 

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