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Messages - sidd

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Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: Today at 01:24:48 AM »
Note that the Bernstein paper remarks that the SLR discount is more pronounced in real estate held as an investment compared to owner occupied properties. Presumably if you live by the coast you don't want to imagine being flooded out or your home losing value, while if the property is a second home or a rental or held as investment you tend to be more clear eyed about valuations.


The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: December 10, 2017, 11:12:04 PM »
Kohler et al have a paper out linking rise in inequality to domestication of large mammals enabling more extensive agriculture and mounted warrior elites who could extend their sway over larger areas. They analyzed settlements using house size as proxy for wealth over a period beginning 11,000 years ago. I attach fig 1a) showing disparity in Gini coefficient between eurasia and americas. This disparity is attributed to lack of domesticable large mammals in the americas until european colonization. The last sentence of the article is:

"Even given the possibility that the Gini coefficients constructed here may underestimate true household wealth disparities, it is safe to say that the degree of wealth inequality experienced by many households today is considerably higher than has been the norm over the last ten millennia."

doi: 10.1038/nature24646


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 10, 2017, 09:57:13 PM »
"if there is anybody here who actually has any idea what Mueller has discovered, it would be illegal for them to post it here, or anywhere else. "

Wasn't that settled in the Ellsberg case a long time ago? NYtimes and WaPo published leaked secret material and got away with it. As far as I know, the law has not substantially changed since.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 10, 2017, 12:59:49 AM »
Re: " The whole world loved the US, but now with Donnie all this has changed? "

I think reputation of the USA depends on who you ask. Chile, for example, would have a different opinion on when US reputation tanked than Canada.

But in my reading, it really crashed worldwide with the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The reelection of Bush the lesser in 2004 cemented it, and the 2008 economic debacle sealed it. In some rich western nations, Obama provided a temporary reprieve, until it became clear that no torturers or warmongers or bankers would be brought to justice under the new boss either, and the wars and the bombings would continue until everybody loved the USA again.

To quote a poet from long ago:

"Indeed, indeed, the Idols I have loved so long,
Have done my credit in men's eyes much wrong.
Drowned my Honour in a shallow Cup,
And sold my Reputation for a Song ! "

He was speaking of different idols and different cups, perhaps, but the sentiment carries.


Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« on: December 10, 2017, 12:06:10 AM »
Sea level rise coming home, the market is paying attention (Halleluia! who woulda thunk it. The real estate market, epecially on the coasts is a wretched hive of villainy))

The first sentence of the abstract is "Homes exposed to sea level rise (SLR) sell at a 7% discount relative to observably equivalent unexposed properties equidistant from the beach."


"This effect is primarily driven by properties unlikely to be inundated for over half a century, suggesting that it is driven by investors pricing long horizon concerns about SLR costs."

" ... the SLR exposure discount has increased substantially over the past decade, coinciding with both increased awareness and more pessimistic prognoses about the extent and speed of rising oceans. In particular, we document increased transaction volume and lower prices for sophisticated buyers following the significant revisions of the IPCC’s 2013 release, which increased SLR projects and awareness."

" ... properties that will experience ocean encroachment after 1 foot of global average sea level rise trading at a 22%, 2-3 feet at a 17% discount, 4-5 feet at a 9% discount and 6 feet at a 6% discount. [4] Using the long run discount rate provided by Giglio et al. (2014) and assuming complete loss at the onset of inundation, we estimate that markets expect 1 foot of sea level rise within 35 years, 2-3 feet within 45 years, 4-5 feet after 65 years, and 6 feet in 80 years. These results are consistent with the medium to high projections provided in Parris et al. (2012) and utilized by the NOAA in their 2012 report.

" ... exposed non-owner occupied properties trade at a 10% to 11% discount, relative to comparable non-exposed properties. "

" ... expectations regarding future SLR have steadily increased over the course of our sample period ... At the beginning of our sample in 2007 we find no significant difference between the prices of exposed and unexposed properties. By the end of our sample in 2016, exposed non-owner occupied properties are priced approximately 13.5% below comparable unexposed properties."

" ... we find evidence that the discount applied to non-owner occupied properties increased from 8.1% to 14.0% following the IPCC release.

" ... consistent with the idea that as information about SLR risks comes to light, exposed properties should be more likely to transact, we find that the annual probability of turnover is approximately 0.2 percentage points higher for exposed properties between 2011 and 2016 (relative to a base transaction rate of approximately 11% for all properties). This is entirely driven by the period following the IPCC report where we see a 0.8 percentage point increase in the annual probability of an exposed property transacting."

I see a remake of the "The Big Short" coming up. A good title might be "Underwater."

Open access (no doi ?!) . Read the whole thing:

"Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise," Asaf Bernstein, Matthew Gustafson, and Ryan Lewis


Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: December 09, 2017, 11:47:09 PM »
Adani got no money and a lot of debt, at least 1.5 billion US$ needs refi next year. Even China won't lend.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 09, 2017, 11:41:30 PM »
Re: Pence has no career left.


"You won't have XXX to kick around anymore ..."

Who was XXX ? Hint: 1962


The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: December 08, 2017, 08:49:07 AM »
Can't have rich people's houses burn.

"  “One Fire Truck Guarded Every Three Houses” in Wealthy Los Angeles Neighborhood Last Night "


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 08, 2017, 05:37:53 AM »
While I am not a huge fan of Jimmy Dore, I find that he does provide a useful antidote to mainstream media, whether of red or blue persuasion. So I think that Neven or others should post as much Jimmy Dore as they like. And those who don't like it are, of course, not obliged to watch ...
(Although i do have to jump thru hoops to find the URL, since i disallow most iframes, so the link to the embedded video in the iframe has to be found thru inspection of the source. Perhaps people might also post a direct link to the URL for the video as well.)


The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: December 08, 2017, 02:07:46 AM »
Lending by big banks to lo income down. No more money there, the banks sucked it all out already. They go to where the money is.


The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: December 07, 2017, 05:31:38 AM »
Franken gonna resign, too much groping. Even if the governor don't appoint Ellison, I think he should run in 2018. In fact if the DNC don't come out for Ellison, we know they are still sucking on the big money.


The rest / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: December 07, 2017, 05:27:17 AM »

The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 07, 2017, 05:25:27 AM »
Why not a party line vote ? what did democratic congressmen have to lose by voting for this ?


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 07, 2017, 05:24:17 AM »
"I have shaken Baudrillard's hand."

Did you get to talk to him at all ? He saw things differently than many.


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 06, 2017, 06:11:24 AM »
Wheeler doe not usually comment on Saud, but she looks at the numbers in another context and they are dismal:

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 06, 2017, 06:05:53 AM »
" It does however freeze under these conditions and today I was fixing freeze damage on hoses that popped late night. "

Blow them out with compressed air if freeze is expected. The fitting is ez to make or you can just buy one. O, and make sure dripcock on compressor is not frozen either ...

Nuttn worse than fighting a fire in freeze and realizing the 200 feet of hose you unspooled in a hurry is frozen and ripped.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 06, 2017, 02:54:25 AM »
"Shut up," Popehat explained kindly.

" If the FBI — or any law enforcement agency — asks to talk to you, say "No, I want to talk to my lawyer, I don't want to talk to you," and repeat as necessary. Do not talk to them "just to see what they want." Do not try to "set the facts straight." Do not try to outwit them. Do not explain that you have "nothing to hide."

Shut up, shut up, shut up, shut up, shut up, shut up. "

That line in the article contains six links, each with popehat kindly explaining why.

Specifically, this time Ken White  was set off by George Papadopouluos and Michael Flynn pleading guilty to the federal crime of lying to the FBI.

"The answer is to shut up and lawyer up."

He would go completely crazy if he had Trump for a client. I'd give him about a new york minute until he quit.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 05, 2017, 10:14:40 PM »
An older article by Andrew O'Hehir on framing the Trump Presidency in Baudrillard's 2001 vison of suicidal world order at war with itself:

"Like the 9/11 attacks, Trump has provoked “prodigious jubilation” in some quarters, along with an unwholesome, libidinal fascination among both the media and the worldwide public."

" ... a new phase of what Baudrillard identified in 2002 as a global conflict within the Western world, reflecting a deep crisis in its dominant political and economic order. To put this in the most provocative terms possible, has Donald Trump succeeded Osama bin Laden as the central figure of World War IV?"

"There are premonitions of a certain reality-show celebrity turned politician who subverted an entire campaign cycle here as well, in the observation that the terrorists exploited the media economy and its “instantaneous worldwide transmission” of spectacle, but that none of us could resist its power: “There is no ‘good’ use of the media; the media are part of the event, they are part of the terror, and they work in both directions.” "

" Were the shocking attacks of September 2001 and the shocking election result of November 2016 — 9/11 and 11/9, the palindrome that defines our age — fluke occurrences amid the general upward trajectory of Western civilization? Or do they represent, as Baudrillard argued in the first instance, Western civilization’s innate yearning toward its own destruction? "
That is the world we live in now: the world of World War IV. The scale of the self-inflicted defeat in that first battle — which was more like an abject surrender — was greater than Baudrillard or anyone else could have imagined in 2002. It paved the way for many other defeats, large and small, including the spectacular and improbable rise of a clownish would-be dictator who barely pretends to care about the supposedly sacred traditions of democracy and who embodies the grossest possible caricature of the “ideology of freedom.” "

Baudrillard's essay can befound, among other places, at:

It is very much worth reading, perhaps more so than O'Hehir.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 05, 2017, 10:04:26 PM »
800 million to buy Trump out of the election ? Cheap at the price.


The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: December 05, 2017, 08:21:28 PM »
Here three democratic Congress reps that want to keep it legal for payday lenders to charge 300% interest. Probably need money for 2018, too.

 Alcee Hastings (D-FL)
 Henry Cueller (D-TX)
 Collin Peterson (D-MN)

All up in 2018. Primary challengers ?


The rest / Re: The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out
« on: December 05, 2017, 08:17:08 PM »
Nine democratic senators want to deregulate Wall Street some more:

 Donnelly, Joe [D-IN] --- up for reelection 2018
 Heitkamp, Heidi [D-ND] ---  2018
 Tester, Jon [D-MT] -- - 2018
 Warner, Mark R. [D-VA] --- 2020
 McCaskill, Claire [D-MO] --- 2018
 Manchin, Joe, III [D-WV] --- 2018
 Kaine, Tim [D-VA] --- 2018
 Peters, Gary C. [D-MI] --- 2020
 Bennet, Michael F. [D-CO] --- 2022

Six are up for reelection in 2018, need to get that sweet, sweet campaign financing from the plutocrats.  Primary challengers, anyone ? I know Manchin has primary opposition.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 05, 2017, 07:26:04 AM »
Extragovernmental secret intelligence action.  Brilliant. What could go wrong ?

Erik Prince is one monocle and one white persian cat away from starring in a bond movie.


Consequences / Re: Qué se ficieron ?
« on: December 05, 2017, 07:23:12 AM »
I have posted about Conn, the social security scammer, He's just been caught in hondura.


Consequences / Re: Hansen et al paper: 3+ meters SLR by 2100
« on: December 05, 2017, 04:51:34 AM »
In another thread there was a reference to the Scambos review doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.04.008
Open access, good review. I noted Fig 4 which I attach. As is my wont, i often whine about the Mercer warning of the 0C midsummer isotherm. Fig 4 in Scambos is a depiction of surface melt on WAIS fringe. I imagine 0C midsummer isotherm is not far behind.

Doom is nigh.


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 04, 2017, 11:18:00 PM »
Yemen former dictator Saleh killed after turning on the houthis and doing a deal with Saudi. That was quick. Meanwhile Swiss banks cooperating with Saud money grab.


Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 04, 2017, 11:12:00 PM »

The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 04, 2017, 11:09:58 PM »
This ought to be interesting. Dana Rohrbacher and Wasserman-Schultz to apppear before house intelligence committee.


Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 04, 2017, 05:43:03 AM »
I know a farmer who used to run 28 kilowatt in summer off methane from manure outta 800 pigs. But he quit, didn't have enuf insulation and wound up with a mess every winter when temperature dropped. Didn't want to spend the money to redig and insulate. Electric from the utility was cheaper. Gone back to spraying pigshit on fields.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 04, 2017, 01:55:08 AM »
Re: state races 2018

Cordray, who just stepped down from CFPB, intends to run for ohio governor in 2018.

Sued bank of america and AIG while he was ohio attorney general. CFPB tenure was also militant. Go, Cordray.

Dunno if he can beat Kasich, though but he has the best chance of all D candidates i think.


Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: December 02, 2017, 09:29:51 PM »
Thanks for the casement reference, Mr. Mitchell.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 02, 2017, 07:52:55 AM »
Thehill reporting that Trump officials who knew,authorized and guided Flynn/Russia contacts were Kushner and McFarland:


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 02, 2017, 07:28:09 AM »
For the record, i join neven and others in stating that the evidence posted thus far does not convince me that the Russian government intervened to influence the presidential election in the USA in 2016.

On another note here's something that  sheds some light on the Kaspersky-NSA malware leak allegations:

"Government officials, who would speak of the classified details of the case only on condition of anonymity, said that Mr. Pho took the classified documents home to help him rewrite his resume. But he had installed on his home computer antivirus software made by Kaspersky Lab, a top Russian software company, and Russian hackers are believed to have exploited the software to steal the documents, the officials said."

I think Kaspersky software found suspicious binary signature on this moron's machine, uploaded the zip archive to Kaspersky, and a human bean there found the source code (?!!!) in the archive with secret markings, just as Kaspersky admitted. Then Kaspersky states that he ordered deletion of the archive and on balance, i believe that too. What I suspect strongly is that a copy found it's way to the Russian FSB.

But at this time, Kaspersky was penetrated by a Duqu variant, (again admitted by Kaspersky) which is probably Israeli. So I also suspect strongly that the Israeli's were watching this whole fiasco and snitched to NSA.

That said, I also think Kaspersky is the best in the business and if I were an organization in the unfortunate position of needing antivirus packages, worried about general virus threats and particularly NSA/DOD/Israeli malware on a computer/network i would run the Kaspersky package. At the same time I would be careful about letting Russia related information on that computer/network.

But then I'm the kind of person that thinks that if you need an antivirus package, you are already screwed.


Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: December 02, 2017, 06:51:17 AM »
"The well casing failure rate of every natural gas well ever drilled is 100% on a 200 year timeline."

Since we don't have stats for 200 yr, are you basin this on failure rates for casings or ... ?


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 02, 2017, 12:29:28 AM »
The indictment is at:

Lying to the FBI about calls to and from the Russian Ambassador during the last third of december 2016 regarding UN resolution on Israeli settlements and Russian response to US sanctions. It turned out that in the first case his efforts were unsuccessful and in the second, fruitful.

The statement of offense is more interesting:

He states that the calls to the Russian Ambassador were made with knowledge and direction of one or more members of Trump's transition team. He also admits that his FARA registration contained false statements in regard to his work for the Turkish government.

Logan act prosecution ? will be a first i think.


The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 01, 2017, 10:46:52 PM »
I do not see any mention of Turkey in the Flynn indictment. So that's probably a charge Mueller is holding over Flynn to ensure continued cooperation.


Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 01, 2017, 12:45:55 AM »

In a larger sense, and more to the topic of this thread (threat?), the great glaciers will not, i think, be the dominant factor in greenland ice mass waste. As Enderlin saw and the models in Applegate indicate, dynamic ice loss in greenland becomes less and less important wth larger forcing.

"Consistent with the conclusions of these earlier studies, the agreement between the ice volume curves from the mass balance-only runs and the dynamic runs becomes progressively better as ΔTgrl increases (Fig. 3b; see also Huybrechts and de Wolde 1999). This result suggests that ice dynamics are an important determinant of the time scale of GIS response for small temperature anomalies, but the ice sheet’s response is dominated by surface mass balance changes at high ΔTgrl values." -- Applegate(2014)

 ΔTgrl is the temperature anomaly imposed over greenland.

Surface mass imbalance is already majority of mass loss in greenland. It's all surface mass balance in greenland  from here on out. Watch out for moisture rich air on greenland, even more than rain, moisture packs 540 cal+80cal/g rather than just 80.

There is another indicator would like to know, which is the elevation of the saddle at 67N between north and south domes in greenland. Some years ago, i posted to realclimate that the equilibrium line had climbed above the saddle. Gregoire(2012 doi:10.1038/nature11257 ; 2016 doi:10.1002/2016GL070356 ) describe saddle collapse and i have posted on this before. That saddle should be dropping now as the collapse begins. I would like some time series of that saddle elevation (and a pony ... )

I think  Greenland will sit and melt in place, all the heat has to get there thru the air.

But WAIS is a different matter. The ocean is already delivering heat there 300meter depth and below. When the atmosphere gets involved as in Mercer's comments about midsummer 0C isotherm on ice shelves, it will be too late.

Jacobshawn is the only collapsing icecliff instability we see, 5Km wide, sinuous channel, sidewall and frozen melange buttressing and the rest. Thwaites is at least ten times as wide and exposed. How fast could that go ? As Alley and Rignot say, it could be just decades, then the seaways to the ross and the ronne open and all WAIS is gone, Totten and the Aurora Basin on deck.


No. I mean that the grounding line will be close to A45. But lets take this to the Jacobshawn thread.


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 30, 2017, 12:24:08 AM »
"I am sorry for being an idiot ..."

Welcome to the club. We are all idiots, each in our own way.

" ... and I'm aware of it."

First step to wisdom ...


I have made my prediction for Jacobshawn grounding line in the Jacobshawn thread.


In another thread there was a call for prediction of grounding line in 2028. For what it's worth, i think the grounding line will be just inland of the deep trough behind the current grounding line.

That is i mean the grounding line will be close the the position A45 on the image at,2205.msg135092.html#msg135092


"As the elevation of the ice surface drops ..."

The ice elevation SMB feedback is already in SICOPOLIS.


Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 29, 2017, 11:00:12 PM »
"No, either you support the best option or you enable the worst option."

As neven said, that's similar to "either you are with us or you support the terrorists." Some of us dont think in binaries.


That Applegate paper does not use global T increase, but rather greenland T increase. So 12 K over greenland would be more like 6K global, as in fig 4 of the paper. I attach. This is for RCP 8.5 showing 12 K is reached over greenland around 2200.

They model ice volume going to zero using the concept of an e-folding time which drops to order 100 yr for greenland temperature anomaly of 12K. I see i have posted fig 2a in this forum already, so i must have read the paper.

The models used are SICOPOLIS and a a profile model along 72N by Parizek and Alley. Then an e-folding time is estimated from the model runs with a simple exponential decay formula. The uncertainty for the 12K anomaly is about the same as the efolding time on the order of a century or two.

I seem to have forgotten all about that paper. I wonder if other models have been used like PISM or Elmer ?


The rest / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: November 29, 2017, 08:14:10 AM »
Re: local organic market

How is that not rigged ? If the externalities of monocrop agriculture, animal concentration camps, fertilizer and waste runoff are not priced, what makes the local organic market price fair ?


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 29, 2017, 07:51:41 AM »
Always a hit song: beat on Clinton

"Multiple congressional committees are planning to interview undercover FBI informant William Campbell about what he knows about Rosatom’s efforts to get the Obama administration to make it easier to win more commercial uranium sales inside the United States."

Of course they can't make Mueller investigate anything he doesn't want to. But more chum in the water, keep the base energized. So far the committees are playing well in secondary defense for the admin.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 29, 2017, 07:33:07 AM »
Mebbe going to be appealed, but hatchet mike got control of CFPB:

Wall Street rejoices.


The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: November 29, 2017, 07:29:36 AM »
Trade war with china on aluminium:

"The Trump administration fired a trade salvo at China on Tuesday by launching a pair of investigations that could lead to steep duties on imports of aluminum sheet valued at more than $600 million.

The move was the first time a U.S. administration has “self-initiated” an anti-dumping or countervailing duty case in at least 25 years and marked an escalation of the Trump administration’s antagonistic trade relationship with Beijing."


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