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Messages - karl dubhe2

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The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: April 21, 2020, 03:01:29 PM »
Nothing in post #256 states it is the oldest DNA.

Who is this guy anyway?

That's a vid by Aron Ra, he's one of the youtubers who's been posting sciency videos.  Did an excellent series on creationism and evolution.    I saw him refer to the story a few days ago, in other versions of the story the dna was stressed as being the oldest ever; 800 k years.   But that wasn't quite right.   

My bad.   I didn't read your story's source, just presumed it was one of the erroneous ones.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: April 20, 2020, 12:20:44 AM »
Oldest ever human genetic evidence clarifies dispute over our ancestors

Genetic information from an 800,000-year-old human fossil has been retrieved for the first time. The results shed light on one of the branching points in the human family tree, reaching much further back in time than previously possible.


"Ancient protein analysis provides evidence for a close relationship between Homo antecessor, us (Homo sapiens), Neanderthals, and Denisovans. Our results support the idea that Homo

The dental proteome of Homo antecessor (PW)

Not the oldest DNA, it's a study that talks about the proteins found on ancient teeth.   Sorry, but this story is just bad reporting according to Aron Ra, anyhow.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 31, 2020, 05:25:19 PM »
I hesitate to write this, because I'm sure the question that I heard is utter bullshit.

Someone in the comment section at the CBC argued that the Covid-19 had similar symptoms to the illness that was caused by vaping.    I dismissed it for a number of reasons, including the idea that the doctors wouldn't have been so lazy as to not look into a viral cause for the vaping issue; popcorn lungs don't sound the same as pneumonia - to me anyhow.

Should I have posted this in 'stupid questions'?   Or is there a dedicated thread that deals with stupid rumors, well, maybe I've answered my own question.   (move this post there, if appropriate.)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 14, 2020, 04:15:15 PM »

I attach a table of the daily change of sea ice extent in February in recent years. Ups and downs like a demented yo-yo. It is the same in March.

So, could we start a thread about the Demented Yo-Yo season?   (kidding!)

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: February 10, 2020, 02:23:56 PM »
Yes, it is safe. People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus. From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.

If it can survive for 9 days, it may survive shipping.


Erm, I do believe that they said it might take up to two weeks before the symptoms start to show, that would mean the bug's inside a person during that time.  Not on a package that gets put on a plane, or in a ship, then transported overseas.   Different kettles of fish, man.   :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: February 09, 2020, 04:12:26 PM »
Karl, have you, by chance, changed the theme?

There are themes?    :o

No, I've not looked at the settings at all.   Maybe something in my own system has glitched.   I'll try to mess with them now, maybe it's something in there.   :)

On edit; that did the trick. thanks.  :)

The politics / Re: Empire - America and the future
« on: February 07, 2020, 02:32:48 PM »

Sick. Sociopathic.

Two words that describe every empire in Earth's history.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: February 07, 2020, 02:28:51 PM »
Works for me, Karl.

Hmmm, strange.   I don't see the option on the page when I first load the site.   It's probably something to do with my computer.   I'll bookmark your link and use that.   :)  Thanks again.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: February 06, 2020, 03:20:49 PM »
I was wondering what happened to the 'view posts since my last visit'?

Was it eating too much resources, and that's why it's gone.    Or am I just missing something.   :)

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 03, 2020, 05:37:20 PM »
He's gonna get us all killed.

I'm surprised we're still here, with that idiot in charge.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 29, 2019, 07:03:00 PM »
As long as it doesn't start melting this early...   :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 28, 2019, 02:19:52 PM »
May I ask what your error range is for the expected extent at the end of the freezing year?   


Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 08, 2019, 03:30:07 PM »
Am I wrong in speculating that the faster the ice freezes this winter the faster it's likely to melt out next spring?  I think so, as such 'predicticating' is utterly without any science to back it up.   :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 11, 2019, 02:05:05 PM »
It's going to
disgustingly more humid than it used to be = a consequence of global heating, s

Qu: Have you checked the temp against previous years ? Cold & clammy feels much colder than very cold but dry?

I've lived here for over 50 years.   :)   It's Edmonton, Canada.   I  have checked, and the humidity does seem to be higher, and so are the consequences.   Some old woods seem to be re-humidifying, but that could be wishful thinking on my part.   The other 'tell' is the lack of nosebleeds, tbh, the dry winters used to make my nose bleed every year; that stopped in 2005ish.   

One year, I spent a winter in Halifax, NS; I never complained about dry colds after that.    Until the winters here started to get 'wet'.   

Thanks again for the work you're doing on gathering this data.   

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 10, 2019, 04:04:41 PM »
It's going to be interesting to see the effect that the open water is going to have on the weather in the North over the next few weeks/months.

For the first time in a number of years, we're seeing a 'normal' start to our cold season where I live.   Although it's still disgustingly more humid than it used to be.   A wet cold is nastier than a dry cold.  :(

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 31, 2019, 04:06:35 PM »
Sulfur dioxide reduces the amount of solar radiation reaching the earths surface? 

Yes, but it also caused acid rain.  Which freaked out people who made gravestones, and those who liked to fish.   SO2 concentrations have been dropping since the 1980s, IIRC.  The SO2 caused some of the sun's light to reflect off of the atmosphere into space, which caused "global cooling" and offset the warming effect from the CO2.   

They're sorta like mirror images, the opposite rather than the same thing.

I'll delete this if I'm very wrong.   8)

The rest / Re: Are you hoping for a global civilisational collapse?
« on: August 28, 2019, 12:44:26 PM »
Yes, I've always liked films like Mad Max, and reading books about such tripe.  It would be awesome to live as our savanna dwelling ancestors did.   After all, aren't you enjoying the mix of Nineteen Eighty Four and the Handmaid's Tale?


This sort of questioning thread is a bit of a stretch, isn't it?   :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
« on: August 23, 2019, 12:28:40 PM »
Unless I die in the near future, I expect to see one.   

Hope has nothing to do with it.   The question is 'wrong', it's an emotional question, not a 'scientific' one.    Hope is a form of belief, and that's not something you do with scientific things.   Scientific theories and hypotheses (even vague speculations) are things you accept, or reject.   IMO anyhow.

I don't think that a BOE will affect those who are committed to continuing the burning of fuels, they're making money and are 'religiously' certain that there will be technical solutions to any problems that humans encounter. 

Policy and solutions / Re: Space colonization
« on: July 31, 2019, 03:41:13 PM »
... many people today fail to appreciate how difficult it’ll be to sustain colonies on the Red Planet.

We have sustained a small “colony” on the International Space Station for 20 years, and it has NO in situ resources (except solar power).  The surface of Mars is bountiful in comparison.  Mars even has gravity, and a day-length not too different from earth.

Ummm, Really the ISS is an outpost, not a colony.   Nobody lives there permanently, nor will someone do something like that for quite a while.   No one has been born up there, nor has anyone died of old age (or violence from warfare).   There's no local foodstuffs up there, nor is there on Mars (that we know of, I suppose it's possible there some kind of divine Manna there.).

The gravity on Mars isn't really enough gravity for our species to live there, not comfortably anyhow.   We'd do better to terraform Venus.   (If we're allowed to speculate wildly, that is.)   If we could develop 'artificial' gravity, I'm thinking we'd do better to stick to space ships rather than a very hostile glorified moon.   :) 

It's my understanding that we'll need to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere that's there.

wishful thinking

You are right with the point that fewer humans would be helpful. And yes, it's utopic. But it is way less utopic to think birth control would become a thing than thinking geoengineering would be beneficial.

My understanding of the need to remove CO2 comes from reading about the Paris Climate thing, back in 2012.   Getting to an absolute zero emission scenario isn't likely to happen; for one, the steel industry needs to use carbon to turn iron into steel.  And there's not a government on Earth that would allow that industry to be shut down.   Ever.   Unless, of course, a better material is found for them to build weapons.  :(

Thank you for helping me refine my question, :)

Is there any research going on that is looking at reducing CO2 without adding more CO2?   

To think that 'we' know everything there is to know about physics and biology is not a valid thought.   To be clear, I'm not suggesting any sort of 'traditional' geoengineering.   And yes, I'm also aware that I'm emulating the Easter Islanders, circa just after they cut all of their trees down.

Karl, here is a thought:

Since we need resources to build this machines that extract CO2 from the air while polluting the air with CO2, wouldn't it be more reasonable to first put this resources into machines that prevent emitting CO2 in the first place? Like windmills and solar panels? This would prevent the need for even more machinery to extract even more CO2.

So you see, no need to learn about this for the next 10-30 years. Because this is the time to prevent more CO2 pollution. Not the time for CO2 emitting geoengineering.

It's my understanding that we'll need to remove the CO2 from the atmosphere that's there.  While planting trees is a very good idea, there are a lot of humans who need food; so planting trees where we need to grow food isn't really an option.   (the other factor, population growth, also needs to be dealt with.   It's too bad that homosexuality isn't a choice, that would limit growth wonderfully, I'm gay and have no kids...   Realistically, birth control needs to become much more popular.   Higher taxes should be imposed on people who have more than two kids.)

I'm not really thinking about the traditional factories, or machines either.   I'm wondering if there's more to optics than we're yet aware of.   The light from the sun can cause colours to fade, it has an influence in producing Carbon 14, it provides the veggie matter with the ability to turn water, air and nutrients into wood.   There's got to be a 'cheat' there that's exploitable for the collective 'us'.   (Yes, I'm aware that my last sentence is totally wishful thinking, and not at all scientific)

I'm also thinking that putting all of our 'resources' into one basket isn't a good idea either.   Except, of course, that one basket of not using fossil fuel anymore.   

By burning hydrocarbons we got a lot of chemical energy.

The cheapest, of course, is to grow any kind of plant, then prevent breakdown of the organic material.  Say, forests.

It might not be entirely a stupid question, but I'm thinking that if plants can do it (separate C from O2), we should be able to copy that artificially.    I'm sure some people are working on imitating, or just learning, how nature does it.   

Where would one go to learn more about how they're working on that particular subject?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: June 19, 2019, 03:08:24 PM »
Cool, a thread that I can participate in.   :)

K, back to lurking now.

Science / Re: Exiting The Anthropocene
« on: May 27, 2019, 05:06:15 PM »

So if the correct answer to the Fermi paradox is, we don't see aliens because it's a rare thing that civilisations make it through the atomic bottleneck, it strikes me as an extremely positive message for us humans. We made it!

The nuclear arsenals of at least two nations are still on a hair trigger alert.   An unobserved asteroid hitting the planet could set off a catastrophe, or a simple accident aboard a ship or in a missile silo/nuclear weapons factory could do the same.

We've made it so far...   That doesn't mean we've passed the point at which our survival is guaranteed.   :(   Keep the champagne in the cellar, hopefully one day we can put it on ice and drink it.   :)

Go Pete, go!

I'd love to see him take a victory over You-Know-Who.

Young, has a good beard...

Arctic sea ice / Re: Guess the date of the max
« on: February 21, 2019, 07:12:23 PM »
Between the first and the fifth of March.    Because that's where the dart hit my calendar.    :D

Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 27, 2018, 02:10:52 PM »
JAXA ANTARCTIC Sea Ice Extent - 6,259,869 km2(December 26, 2018)

All models have limitations. The first table attached shows that remaining melt in three of the previous years would result in an extent minimum of less than zero, an impossibility.

- see Tealight graphs at

Not to be too contrary, but I think it is possible for a extent minimum of less than zero.    There is ice on land, which could be said to be the source of the negative value for the extent minimum.  If the land ice collapses like the side of Anuk...   Of course, that's just playing with words really. 

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 28, 2018, 01:17:05 PM »
Any forecasts for D20 or D50?

There's this one from the Canadian weather people.  Says the probabilility of above average snowfall is somewhat greater this fall/early winter.  But that's a long range forecast, almost like quoting the Farmer's Almanac.   ;D 

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 22, 2018, 01:48:33 PM »

If 12z models are correct looks like you could see another 10-15CM+...!

Environment Canada is predicting 5CM.  :)  And above zero temps for the rest of the week.  It's still early for winter to set in this far south.  By mid October, hopefully after the crops are harvested, we should see snow arrive and not go away again.

The nice thing about the early snow is that it reminds me of winters in the 1970s, although it's still much more humid than it used to be.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 21, 2018, 10:07:52 PM »
PS -- Edmonton now has the record!

 the Edmonton International Airport had experienced 22 centimetres of snow prior to Friday

This is truly absurd...!

 8)  Absurd or not, it's already melting/melted.  The report talks about accumulated precipitation.    There's just a bit of snow left on the ground outside my window.  It should all be gone by Thursday, when the temperature is supposed to rise to 17 C.  It's traditional Alberta weather, if you don't like it; wait five minutes. 

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: September 14, 2018, 07:12:47 PM »
It snowed in my city, so obviously that totally disproves that it's still summer.  :)  (bet you thought I'd say something else.)

An early snowfall in Edmonton, Canada usually gets melted away.  It's not the earliest snowfall, but it does give us a chance of having a nice Thanksgiving this October.  (well, maybe.  That's just weather anyhow)  If you go by the really old legends, the turning of the leaves, which might have happened earlier than normal, implies that it'll be a long and cold winter for us.  We shall see.  (or not, if you eat and drink too much over Christmas.)

The real 'fun' comes when we get a real snowfall, and the roads weed out the people who remember how to drive in winter from those who've never learned.

Arctic sea ice / Re: How soon could we go ice free?
« on: September 07, 2018, 09:16:22 PM »
I do believe that it could go ice free this year, iff there was an incoming large asteroid that happened to hit  the floating ice at the North Pole.  :)  That would melt the stuff, mix up the ocean's water, and be one heck of a disaster.

Needless to say, that's an unlikely scenario.  Maybe I should pitch it to Hollywood...

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Smart" and "Stupid" Questions - Feel Free To Ask
« on: August 15, 2018, 04:04:35 AM »
I found a stupid question to ask.  Well, maybe stupid.   

I noticed in the thread about the 2018 melting season that someone mentioned the effect that the tides would have on the ice in the channels there.

So I looked at the Canadian website that deals with tides currents and all that fun stuff.

From a quick look the tides don't seem to be moving up and down very much, the difference in the areas that I checked have a difference of about 0.2 meters or about 0.6 of a foot.  Which is quite different from the values further south.  Wait.   I think I found the answer...

That's not a constant thing, is it?  For some stupid reason I thought the moon orbited around the Earth at the equator, but then I looked again, and that's not right.

So, I suppose the question had something to do with when the tides in the CAA are strongest.   Could there be a relation between the strength of the 'garlic press' season/year to when the moon is higher or lower in the sky in relation to the Arctic?  If there is, has someone looked at the implications? 

This is a terribly rambling question isn't it?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Glossary ... for newbies and others
« on: August 15, 2018, 03:40:53 AM »
Sorry to be a bother, I think this is a better place to ask than the stupid question thread. 

I was reading the end of the 2018 ENSO thread and there's an acronym that I don't understand. 

SOI, I'm thinking it's surface ocean index?  Maybe...  Probably not.  :)

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