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Messages - Sigmetnow

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1
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: Today at 01:48:52 AM »
I'm more of a lurker than a poster, but the CO2 overlay on nullschool.net seems particularly concerning. Moderately high concentrations in the southern hemisphere make since, as it is winter there and less CO2 is absorbed in colder temperatures. Nonetheless the high readings banding around the upper and middle latitudes in the northern hemisphere seem unusual. Anyone with greater expertise is welcome to chip in here with a logical explanation, but I've not seen this before.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-164.03,52.77,553

Hi, northsylvania.  Good catch.  I’m just posting an image of your nullschool link here, to preserve it for posterity, since live links change.  :)

2
Nissan found guilty of using diesel emissions cheat device in South Korea
Quote
The South Korean government however ruled that the so-called device lowered nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions under testing, leading to excess NOx emissions when the system deactivated under normal driving conditions.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/nissan-found-guilty-using-diesel-emissions-cheat-device-south-korea

Nissan looking desperate to sell the LEAF in U.S. — but it’s only trying in CARB/ZEV states
Nissan Offering $2,000 Cash Back On 2018 LEAF (In ZEV States)
https://insideevs.com/nissan-offering-2000-cash-back-on-2018-leaf-in-zev-states/amp/



Porsche will be building more expensive versions of the Taycan first, and cheaper ones later! Shocker!   /sarc
(But because every electric version will cannibalize the vastly more profitable maintenance profits on ICE Porsches, they can’t move too fast.  Production launch planned for late 2019.)

“[Porsche Taycan] is expected to be released with all-wheel drive initially, with talks of later vehicles having the option for a rear-wheel drive build.”
Quote
Ultimately, the Porsche executive stated that the warm reception to the Taycan is indicative of how keen car buyers are about zero-emissions vehicles. Pollich also acknowledged the importance of Tesla, its biggest rival in the electric car industry, for helping make EVs as viable and even preferable alternatives to gas-powered vehicles. The Porche exec further noted that it would be adopting a similar strategy as Tesla by creating a fast charger network for the Taycan and its future electric car offerings like the Mission E Cross Turismo.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/16/porsche-taycan-hits-nurburgring-for-more-pre-production-testing/



Toyota/Lexus still clings to an “all of the above” approach, including fuel cells:
All-electric vehicles not yet ready for primetime, says Lexus CEO as the luxury brand falls behind in electrification
Quote
As part of Toyota, Lexus has been following the lead of its parent company and hasn’t pushed hard for the electrification of its lineup.
Lexus has yet to release an all-electric vehicle despite virtually all premium brands, like its top German competitors Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, going electric with new vehicles.
The head of the brand, Yoshihiro Sawa, now says that he believes that it is still too soon for EVs and therefore, they are not falling behind but having a better approach to alternative powertrains.

Nonetheless, Lexus has recently unveiled a new crossover concept supporting an all-electric powertrain and the automaker says it plans to launch its first all-electric vehicle in 2020 – around the same time Toyota plans its own rollout of electric vehicles.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/18/all-electric-vehicles-not-yet-ready-for-primetime-lexus-ceo/

3
Palau is in the middle of a new experiment: Over the next year and a half, the country will shift to 100% renewable energy, at no cost to the government, in what is likely to be the fastest national transition to renewable energy ever to occur.

This island nation is making the fastest-ever shift to renewables
The island nation of Palau plans to stop buying diesel and go 100% solar by the end of 2019–and offer a blueprint for other island nations to do the same.
https://amp.fastcompany.com/90203041/this-island-nation-is-making-the-fastest-ever-shift-to-renewables

Cross post from Renewables thread.

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 18, 2018, 09:17:11 PM »
Palau is in the middle of a new experiment: Over the next year and a half, the country will shift to 100% renewable energy, at no cost to the government, in what is likely to be the fastest national transition to renewable energy ever to occur.

This island nation is making the fastest-ever shift to renewables
The island nation of Palau plans to stop buying diesel and go 100% solar by the end of 2019–and offer a blueprint for other island nations to do the same.
https://amp.fastcompany.com/90203041/this-island-nation-is-making-the-fastest-ever-shift-to-renewables

Cross post in Paris 2015 Agreement thread.

5
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 18, 2018, 03:22:31 PM »
”The Copernicus Earth observation programme, which gives daily updates of fires in Europe, shows more than 60 fires burning across Sweden, with sites also ablaze in Norway, Finland and Russia, including in the Arctic Circle.”

Wildfires rage in Arctic Circle as Sweden calls for help
Sweden worst hit as hot, dry summer sparks unusual number of fires, with at least 11 in the far north
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/18/sweden-calls-for-help-as-arctic-circle-hit-by-wildfires

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: July 18, 2018, 02:16:13 PM »
Quote
Exciting news: Today Solar Roadways was selected as one of 25 semi-finalists out of over 800 entries from all over the world in the Postcard Lottery Green Challenge!

The Postcode Lottery Green Challenge is one of the world's largest competitions in the field of sustainable entrepreneurship.

Five finalists will be invited to present in Amsterdam in September.

"The results are in! These 25 start-ups are in the running to win €500k to develop their innovative plans to save the planet."
https://m.facebook.com/41869107125/posts/10155239930737126/

https://greenchallenge.info/info/946-25-green-start-ups-that-are-changing-the-world

7
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: July 18, 2018, 02:11:10 PM »
New evacuations ordered as fire raging near Yosemite National Park grows to 12,525 acres
Quote
A wildfire burning outside Yosemite National Park continued its push south toward nearby rural communities as hundreds of firefighters flooded into the area Tuesday.

Amid high temperatures, low humidity and light winds, the Ferguson fire has scorched 12,525 acres south of Highway 140 west of the park and was 5% contained, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said.

The blaze has killed one firefighter and is threatening more than 100 homes as it marches southeast along a fork of the Merced River toward Jerseydale, Mariposa Pines and Yosemite West, Cal Fire said. ...
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-ferguson-fire-spread-20180717-story.html

8
Consequences / Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
« on: July 18, 2018, 02:08:13 PM »
The Flash Drought Brought Misery, but Did It Change Minds on Climate Change?
Ranchers in Divide County, North Dakota, rely on the rain. Last year the rains failed, and the temperature shot up. ‘The crops just didn’t come out of the ground.’
Quote
Drought is an especially wily adversary. As an officer of the North Dakota Department of Emergency Services told me recently, "You can't put up a sandbag wall to stop a drought."

In Divide County, agricultural producers are especially vulnerable to the effects of drought, since they depend on dryland methods. Dryland farmers use no irrigation. Instead, they rely wholly on rain: to initiate the lush growth of little bluestem and other pastureland grasses that will sustain their herds through the summer, and to secure the hay harvest that will get the herd through the winter. Not to mention the rain they need for their wheat, barley and pea cash crops.

In 2017, ranchers were optimistic when they put their cattle out to graze in late spring. There'd been record snowfall over the winter, and regional forecasts weren't calling for any drought conditions in their northwest region of the Great Plains. By May, though, concerns were rising. Rain failed to come, and the good winter moisture evaporated into a cloudless sky. By July, two-thirds of the pastureland in the Dakotas was in poor condition, and across the High Plains, from Kansas up to Canada, temperatures were above normal while precipitation was low—perfect conditions for what's known as a "flash drought," sudden and severe.

By the first of August, the USDA reported that nearly three-quarters of North Dakota's topsoil was desperately bereft of moisture. Part of Divide County was at the most severe drought level, and 60 percent of the state was facing some level of drought. It was the state's fourth-driest summer since record-keeping started in 1895. Ranchers hauled water to their herds and vied for hay donations that flowed in from other regions after the state opened a hay lottery. Anything to supplement the feed of the hungry cattle.

What happened? How had it happened so fast? And would it happen again? ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17072018/flash-drought-north-dakota-cattle-ranchers-auction-hay-shortage-climate-change

9
Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: July 18, 2018, 02:03:53 PM »
U.S.:  Heat Wave Safety: 130 Groups Call for Protections for Farm, Construction Workers
As outdoor workers labor in extreme temperatures, they are vulnerable to heat-related illnesses that can be fatal. Climate change raises the risks.
Quote
Parts of the country are expecting another round of searing, potentially record-shattering heat in the coming days, and many farm and construction workers will be out in it—with no federal heat stress standards directing their employers to offer them water, rest or shade.

Despite recommendations going back more than 40 years, the federal government has repeatedly failed to set a heat stress standard for American workers.

On Tuesday, the consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, along with United Farm Workers Foundation and Farmworker Justice, joined more than 130 public health and environmental groups in submitting a petition to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration calling for the agency to require employers to protect their workers from heat by imposing mandatory rest breaks, hydration and access to shade or cooled spaces, among other measures.

"This is a public health issue. This is a justice issue. The people who feed us, who feed America, deserve strong protections from the effects of climate change," said Jeannie Economos, a project coordinator with the Farmworker Association of Florida. "We're calling on OSHA not to delay anymore."

As global warming continues, extreme heat is expected to become more common, and the plight of outdoor workers will get more extreme along with the weather, making stronger standards more critical.  From 1992 to 2016, heat killed 783 workers in the U.S. and seriously injured nearly 70,000, according to the group's new analysis of working conditions in high temperatures.

Those numbers, the report said, understate the total. In 2011, Public Citizen petitioned the agency for a heat stress standard, and in response, OSHA acknowledged that heat-induced "deaths are most likely underreported, and therefore the true mortality rate is likely higher."

Farmworker advocacy groups have noted that migrant workers are especially reluctant to insist on breaks or water, and that illnesses and deaths from heat are likely underestimated because undocumented workers fear retaliation or deportation. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/17072018/heat-wave-workplace-safety-illness-stress-climate-change-construction-farm-workers-osha

10
It seems many people rushed to criticize Musk without realizing what was happening behind the scenes (and in the open, on Twitter).  Important background on the requests for help is here:

What's the full story behind Elon Musk's involvement with the Thai cave rescue effort? - Quora
https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-full-story-behind-Elon-Musks-involvement-with-the-Thai-cave-rescue-effort


“And mostly nobody mentioned the letter Elon got from Richard "Rick" Stanton, who IS a very experienced RESCUE DIVER.

Stanton to Elon: "We're worried about the smallest lad please keep working on he capsule details
...”
https://twitter.com/martinengwicht/status/1019383244104568832
Text image of the email at the link.


11
Finally, definitive data:

Teslas Are Not More Prone To Fire Than Other Cars, Says NTSB Investigator
Quote
...statistics from the National Fire Protection Association, which stated that there were roughly 173,000 reported vehicle fires in the United States in 2016, the most recent year for which figures are available, according to Statista.com. Practically all of these incidents are from gas-powered cars, which translates to one ICE vehicle catching fire every 2-3 minutes, or 55 fires per 1 billion miles driven.

According to Tesla, the best comparison between its electric cars is the number of fires reported per 1 billion miles driven. There are currently 300,000 Teslas on the road today, and they have driven 7.5 billion miles. So far, about 40 fires have been reported, translating to 5 fires for every 1 billion miles traveled.
https://www.inquisitr.com/4987033/teslas-are-not-more-prone-to-fire-than-other-cars-says-ntsb-investigator/

12
Nissan Leaf becomes best-selling EV in Europe as new gen gets 37,000 orders, 18,000 deliveries
Quote
Nissan is finding a market for the next-gen Leaf in Europe where it has become the best-selling all-electric vehicle with now 18,000 deliveries and 37,0000 orders, according to the automaker.

It makes the Leaf a production constrained vehicle – joining the ranks of other EVs that can’t be produced fast enough for consumers, like the Tesla Model 3 and Chevy Bolt EV.
...
It shows the market in Europe for the new Leaf is way stronger than in the US where the vehicle has accumulated just over 6,000 sales during the first half of the year, which makes it the 5th best-selling vehicles behind all 3 of Tesla’s models and the Chevy Bolt EV.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/18/nissan-leaf-best-selling-ev-europe/



Germany’s on-again, off-again ‘no EV rebates for Teslas’ argument is on again:
Tesla buyers are asked to pay back €4,000 EV incentive in Germany, Tesla says it will cover cost and fight decision
https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla-pay-back-ev-incentive-germany-loophole-fails/



Tesla’s fleet has accumulated over 1.2 billion miles on Autopilot and even more in ‘shadow mode’, report says
Quote
Automakers and tech companies are rushing to bring autonomous driving systems to market and accumulating mileage with their test vehicles.

Tesla is taking a different approach by accumulating mileage with its customer fleet through its Autopilot driver assist program.

A new report now estimates that Tesla has accumulated over 1.2 billion miles on Autopilot and more than twice that when accounting for mileage in ‘shadow mode’.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla-autopilot-miles-shadow-mode-report/

13
Hot spots.

14
SH wrote @#4722:
Quote
We put nearly 85 million new ICE vehicles on the road in 2017. We will put a similar number on the road in 2018. And these new car buyers will not be trading these cars in for EV's anytime soon. Lets assume EV sales doubles annually. In 2019, sales will be 4 million and another 82 million ICE vehicles will hit the road. In 2020, EV sales will hit 8 million and another 78 million ICE vehicles will hit the road. In 2021, another 70 million ICE vehicles hit the road although I have my doubts that EV sales will be 16 million in 2021 as it takes at least 2 years to design and bring a new car to market.

You are assuming that total annual car sales remain steady, which may not be valid, for reasons such as the rise of car sharing, autonomous vehicles, new mass transit solutions, and an impending economic recession — all of which may depress new car sales substantially.

“And these new car buyers will not be trading these cars in for EV's anytime soon.”
Again, you are using a historical paradigm, this time of keeping one ICE vehicle until you are ready to buy another ICE vehicle.  There are marked benefits to owning an EV over an ICE car, so it makes sense that many ICE owners will switch over to an EV earlier than usual.  Or, that they ditch their ICE car and make use of other transportation entirely.


15
“Spotted: @NetZeroMN's striped Tesla, inspired by @ed_hawkins' stunning climate visualization.“
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1018517799981985793
...

Now I know I hit the big time, I’ve been posted to the Arctic Sea Ice forum  :)

I wish, instead of stenciling on the CO2 graphs I had used the historical temperature graphs.
Great conversation starter though!

Zythryn,
Wow, so beautiful, eye-catching — and so meaningful!  I can’t think of a better way to entice people to engage in a discussion about climate change.  Thank you for your efforts!

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 17, 2018, 06:53:04 PM »
ExxonMobile:  “We’re advancing auto efficiency with technology like the Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition. This mechanism can help increase fuel economy by 30% while lowering emissions. #TechTuesday”
https://twitter.com/exxonmobil/status/1019235548052025345

No_Dumbies: “lowering emissions by 30% leaves 70% emmissions in an era that is demanding negative emissions via uptake systems that heal and upcycle .. get with the future. #greennewdeal”
https://twitter.com/_touch_update_/status/1019236219828436992


(Honestly, posted the above mostly for this GIF:  pic.twitter.com/lTaN0tggO0  )  ;D
Or here:  https://twitter.com/teslabull/status/1019249321366077440

17
“Spotted: @NetZeroMN's striped Tesla, inspired by @ed_hawkins' stunning climate visualization.“
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1018517799981985793
Photos below, more at the link. 

“The original graphics are online if anyone else wants to use them for creative projects!”
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2018/warming-stripes/
             https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/status/1018730983657533440

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: July 17, 2018, 01:37:09 AM »
Another article on the SA VPP, with a Tesla video.  Powerwall production must be ramping up!

Tesla deploys first 100 Powerwalls with solar for new virtual power plant in Australia – already having an impact
https://electrek.co/2018/07/16/tesla-powerwalls-new-virtual-power-plant-australia/

19
Norway Tesla deliveries 1H2018 vs. 1H2017:
Model X up 43% to 2,206.  Now the biggest selling luxury car.
Model S up 115% to 1,861.   Now the third biggest seller.

Jaguar I-PACE:  1 sale

ICE:
Porsche Cayenne down 56% to 45
Jaguar F-Pace down 51% to 40

https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1018955417408409600



All the good news is bad news for the masses of people shorting Tesla stock:

“Shorts are already nervous about the second independent analysis [Munro] demonstrating high profit margins for #Tesla #Model3. …”
“As a short, this concerns me. The German firm found potential high profit too…”
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1018975105836244992

20
Bill McKibben (@billmckibben)
7/16/18, 2:00 PM
“Huh. We've swamped the atmosphere with so much methane that it is producing new cloud patterns. That seems a tad ominous ...”
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/1018918335554228227

Methane Is Giving Noctilucent Clouds a Boost
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Methane-Giving-Noctilucent-Clouds-Boost

21
Hypermiling!  Constant speed on a track; then autopilot with a dummy in the drivers seat.

Tesla Model S, Model 3 set hypermile records: 701 mi. (1128 km) and 623 mi. (1001 km), respectively
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-model-3-hypermile-world-records/

22
From the above video:

“Munro Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable ... "rear view mirror Tesla 3 it costs about $29.5,BMW i3 $93 approx...Chevy bolt 164... that's the magic associated with using components...already on the car ... you make them work 2x or 3x duty" ...”
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1018873341833285632

Edit:
“Sandy Munroe about #Tesla #Model3 new 2170 battery cell: "20% bigger than the old, it has new chemistry and quite frankly it gives you 50% more power". LG, Samsung battery tech bite the dust compared to what @Tesla @panasonic has achieved with 2170. ... “
https://twitter.com/martinengwicht/status/1018889609877577733

23
Re Tesla and Monro:  not often does someone admit to eating crow (and repeatedly so).  I also liked the "30% profitability" for potential longevity of the Tesla corp.  (If I was in the market for a new car, I might say it's too high.)

This estimate was made for the rear-wheel-drive, long range battery version, right?  So the high-option versions are likely more profitable, and the base version likely will be less so.  (Which is why they are expanding the line to make the more expensive versions first, and delaying the $35k version for later.)


Edit: “Sandy says the base model can still make a double-digit gross profit.”
https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1018908652936269830

24
Munro Teardown — update video — see Archimid’s post above for the link!

Munro Teardown Shows Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable …
"profitable by over 30% ... so nobody in the auto industry is getting 30% now yes they are but not in the electric field no electric car is getting 30% net nobody or 30% growth" $TSLA #tesla
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1018870946478903297

Sandy Munro update --
"Mislead by first impressions." 
"A symphony of engineering"
"Very very impressed with battery"
"I have to eat crow ..."
MODEL 3 SOLIDLY PROFITABLE.  "OVER 30%"
https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1018869708207149058




Fridman estimates that Tesla vehicles have driven over 7.8 billion miles in the aggregate, over 1.2 billion of those miles in Autopilot mode and over 1.6 billion in shadow mode.
Autopilot-capable vehicles are operating in Autopilot mode about 25% of the time.
$TSLA twitter.com/evannex_com/st…

https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1018843096535183366


In 2017, Tesla's sales in China reached more than 2 billion US dollars, an increase of nearly 90% compared with 2016, accounting for about 50% of the total sales of the year. As of now, China is already Tesla's largest market outside the United States. $TSLA

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1018846468155641856

25
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2018
« on: July 16, 2018, 06:06:08 PM »
Houston, Texas

As Post-Harvey Buyout Money Rolls In, Some Have Already Given Up On The Program
Quote
After Hurricane Harvey flooded thousands of homes in Houston, a lot more homeowners became interested in government buyouts.

The federal money needed to buy and demolish all those homes has finally started rolling in, but as the months passed since the storm, some people decided they couldn’t wait on the government.

Buyouts are generally regarded as a cost-effective way to save people from flooding risks, but the glacially-slow pace is a big challenge. So far, Harris County has received about half the $164 million it’s requested from FEMA for the effort.

“We basically want to go after the houses that were impacted the most, first,” said James Wade, head of the county’s buyout program. Wade said the county targets houses that basically should have never been built.

“They’re in areas that, you know, some of these areas may be ten feet deep in the floodplain, and you’re never going to engineer your way out of that flooding threat,” he said.

Since Harvey, the county has approved applications from about 1,000 people who volunteered to let the government tear down their home and, ideally, turn the area into a green space that better absorbs floodwater. But Wade said about 200 of those people have already either sold to someone else or decided not to sell at all, and he said that’s historically been a problem.
...
Even before Harvey, Harris County’s buyout program was the largest in the U.S. Local officials are hoping to use separate pots of money for more buyouts, beyond what’s already been federally funded. But even if that’s all successful, there will still be almost 200,000 homes left in the region’s floodplains. ...
https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/news/2018/07/16/295696/as-post-harvey-buyout-money-rolls-in-some-have-already-given-up-on-the-program/

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: July 16, 2018, 04:29:43 PM »
Distributed, residential batteries can provide grid services much like “big batteries,” report shows.  South Australia is rethinking its decision to downsize the Tesla project.

Tesla builds case for 250MW virtual power plant after first trial success
Quote
The results of those trials conducted by Tesla – obtained by RenewEconomy – show that groups of Tesla Powerwalls installed in homes can deliver much of the same services as the Tesla big battery in South Australia, such as providing rapid and accurate response to frequency changes.

This graph below shows how two Tesla Powerwalls (red and green), respond to so-called “droop settings” by autonomously and automatically injecting active power when the frequency (blue line) drops below the thresholds (dotted lines).

“This response demonstrates the ability of the SA VPP to autonomously and instantaneously provide frequency services that help maintain the stability of the grid,” the Tesla document says.

The South Australia government acknowledged this, saying that Phase 1 of the Tesla VPP (100 homes)  demonstrates that distributed Powerwall technology can increase the supply of energy during peak periods.

It says this would increase reliability and cut prices in South Australia and “when paired with solar and wind” generate clean renewable energy. ...
https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-builds-case-for-250mw-virtual-power-plant-after-first-trial-success-63950/


“$TSLA Investors who can see beyond the next quarter #OOTT
Please click through for key sentences from this important article, along with my interpretation with respect to each key sentence.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1018591126486503424
The link’s nine-tweet thread provides commentary on the above article.

27
"For now, it appears GM’s plans are to run its own transportation network company (TNC). If they can get the technology right and execute on this plan, then when we run this scenario, we see them having a fleet of ~800,000 vehicles by 2030 driving ~58 billion miles that year.

GM's self-driving car unit could be worth $43 billion — nearly 4 times the valuation it received 6 weeks ago, RBC says
https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/gm-apos-self-driving-car-133500602.html

28
Sierra Club:  There have got to be better topics of debate than whether @elonmusk is committed to climate action. He has dedicated his career to the mission of replacing fossil fuels with clean energy & has strongly backed the Sierra Club's advocacy work. We are proud to have his support.

Seth Abramson (@SethAbramson)
7/15/18, 12:11 PM
I agree. The fact is, @elonmusk donates *200 times more* to the Sierra Club than to the GOP. We progressives need to choose our damn battles. Elon Musk is imperfect, as all of us are, but he has *never* been an enemy of progress. Indeed, he's always been an *ally* of the future.
https://twitter.com/sethabramson/status/1018528421339648000

29
Market forces will not cause the demise of the market for new ICE vehicles before 2030 nor the market for used ICE vehicles before 2040. The only thing that will drive ICE vehicles off the planet faster is if governments legislate them out of existence. This can be done by...

1. Put in place taxes on gasoline that triple or quadruple the cost of a gallon of gas.
2. Place a luxury tax on all ICE vehicles so as to double the price of a new ICE vehicle.
3. Legislate a large credit for owners of used ICE vehicles who trade them in for EV's and send these ICE vehicles to be scrapped.

This is not an all inclusive list but the effect of each of these is the same. They serve to increase the operating cost of an ICE vehicle when compared to an EV.
All true. But the government could do a lot more on the supply side too. What if the US government were to declare war on AGW, and move to a wartime economy where it is okay for the government to pay for new private factories? Production capacity could quadruple and the revolution would happen much faster.
In more conservative terms, the Fed could as part of its endless QE programs make a $10B loan to Tesla (and to other EV manufacturers). Ramp-up will happen much faster.
BTW, 1 and 2 on your list are already in place in Israel, but availability of pure EVs in any reasonable price range is nil.

Absolutely. This is what needs to happen. We have the technology. We need to place ourselves on a war footing, recognizing AGW as the existential crisis that it is.

Of course government incentives/punishment would help accelerate the adoption of EVs.  I would love to see more of it.  But there were no laws encouraging people to buy microwave ovens, VCRs, air conditioners, computers, or cellphones — yet most U.S. households adopted them within 10 years or less. 

Demand often grows for the weirdest of reasons, but it’s unwise to ignore market forces.  As companies learn how to make a profit selling the kind of EVs people want, the market will grow exponentially.

Don’t overlook the government help we are seeing today, at a more local level:  tax breaks, investments and real estate deals enabling the building of new vehicle manufacturing and battery factories, many claiming “biggest in the world” status.  They are a win for local economies, and, more and more, the factories themselves are being built and run sustainably — which could have been a hard sell if done under duress.  The EV market is readying its great leap forward, even in today’s uncertain environment.

30
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs)
7/15/18, 7:08 AM
“#Tesla registered 3,424 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 75464. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1018452208478666752

That makes 19,067 July 1 through 15.

Versus 4,664 in all of June.  And 18,014 in all of May.

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: July 15, 2018, 02:08:35 PM »
Tokyo Announces Plan To Install Solar Roads In Time For 2020 Olympics
Quote
Some solar panelling has already been installed on a trial basis in the Sagamihara, Kanagawa Prefecture by a Seven-Eleven. The technology was only introduced in May, but a manager at the Seven-Eleven store told the Business Times that it's starting to pay off.

"(The solar road system) can generate 16,145 kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, covering about 9 per cent of the entire electricity the store consumes."

It's important that the roads begin generating power more quickly, because they are currently quite expensive to install. Both France and the Netherlands have been experimenting with solar roads, and in France, it costs about 5 million euros for ever kilometer of road.

Japan has decided to continue the introduction of solar roads on government owned property, and will more likely focus on parking lots. The wider surface area can generate more electricity and justify the cost of installation.

Installation is supposed to begin during the 2019 fiscal year, and the process is intensive.

The road is made of solar panels that are installed in the ground, then covered in a special resin that makes them durable under the weight of traffic.

If this technology were more widely used, it would greatly reduce the cost of installation, as the components could be more affordably mass produced. So implementing any usage is increasing the likelihood of solar roads everywhere.
https://www.greenmatters.com/news/2018/06/11/ZdfqoX/tokyo-solar-road-olympics

32
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
7/14/18, 11:06 PM
Reports that I am a top donor to GOP are categorically false. I am not a top donor to any political party.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1018330925384458240

<<Are you ANY kind of donor to the GOP?>>

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
7/14/18, 11:15 PM
@danielbrennan Yes, about 0.5% of what I donated to @SierraClub, which is a reasonable amount to maintain an open dialogue
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1018333202140680192



Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
7/14/18, 6:46 PM
@jack_p Thanks Jack. To be clear, I am not a conservative. Am registered independent & politically moderate. Doesn’t mean I’m moderate about all issues. Humanitarian issues are extremely important to me & I don’t understand why they are not important to everyone.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1018265614295523328

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
7/14/18, 8:25 PM
@jack_p That said, I do not actually see the checks (changed that policy today). A nominal annual amount goes out automatically to both parties to maintain dialogue. I have given vastly more to humanitarian causes.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1018290544986845184



“I am not even American, but hey check the PUBLIC list of donations.
Elon is not the top donor to anyone neither Democratic nor Republican. It is a smooth automatic payment spinned in something outrageous. Ridiculous FUD. Pathetic lies. Nothing to much to talk about.”
https://twitter.com/teslectrics1/status/1018395441287913473
Images below.

33
...
EV sales are moving rapidly up and this growth is woefully inadequate.

I say again:  “Adoption S-Curve.”  In just a few years, EV growth will astound you.

Think about everything that must have happened to go from one car in a busy NYC street in 1900... to all cars but one horse in 1913.  Growth, growth, growth!  And adoption happens even faster today than it did all those years ago.

It is illogical to assume a steady state of vehicle production or adoption, whether ICE or EV.  I don’t think this thread has discussed the possible effects of an economic recession, which we are overdue for and will likely occur in the next year or two at the latest.  In the Great Recession of 2008, car sales plummeted — but did not go to zero.  (There were three recessions between 1900 and 1913!)  Cheaper cost of EV ownership could become an important factor.  Even today’s “rich” folks might discover a reason to change their usual buying habits during a recession.  Between a recession and the EV revolution, the legacy auto industry will transform, or die, very soon now.

In short:  think exponential, not linear, EV growth.

34
hundreds died in flooding in Japan .. worth recording it happened ?  b.c.

It was covered extensively in the Floods thread:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg162449.html#msg162449 

35
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: July 14, 2018, 09:37:52 PM »
Nine of the 13 oldest baobabs, aged between 1,000 and 2,500 years, have died over the past dozen years.  The sudden collapse is "an event of unprecedented magnitude."

Africa's oldest baobab trees are dying from a mysterious threat
Rising temperatures, increasing drought due to climate change is a suspected factor
https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.4745548

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: July 14, 2018, 08:50:09 PM »
Clean energy is catching up to natural gas
The natural gas “bridge” to sustainability may be shorter than expected.
Quote
According to GTM Research, it is peakers that are going to fall first in the US. With the rate of decline in battery prices, they will be competing directly with peakers in a few years and beating them consistently by the mid-2020s.

Of the 20 GW of peakers slated for between now and 2030, GTM estimates, 10 GW or more could get beat out by batteries. “I can’t see a reason why we should ever build a gas peaker again in the US after, say, 2025,” said Shayle Kann, then a senior adviser at GTM.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/energy-and-environment/2018/7/13/17551878/natural-gas-markets-renewable-energy

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 14, 2018, 08:36:11 PM »
‘We Will Be Waiting’: Tribe Says Keystone XL Construction Is Not Welcome
The controversial oil pipeline would cross the Cheyenne River near a reservation, and the tribe is fighting it. TransCanada plans to bring in equipment this month.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13072018/keystone-xl-pipeline-native-american-resistance-oil-spill-cheyenne-river-sioux-dakota-access-transcanada

38
“The first six months of the year have made it the hottest La Niña year to date on record,” said Clare Nullis of the WMO.

Heatwave sees record high temperatures around world this week
From Europe to Africa, extreme and widespread heat raises climate concerns in hottest La Niña year to date on record
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/13/heatwave-sees-record-high-temperatures-set-around-world-this-week

39
“It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future”
Industry forecasts are as inaccurate as most everyone else’s.  Even Elon Musk moved up the production schedule for the Model 3 by two years when the number of reservations in March/April 2016 exceeded even Tesla’s most optimistic estimates.

All I know is that we are on the cusp of a vehicle revolution.  Its adoption S-curve is turning vertical.  We may not be able to accurately predict exactly how, when, or why that ramp happens, but the adoption S-curve means that future adoption will happen faster — much faster! — than it is happening today.


US sales of BMW 3/4 Series are plunging...
... while its stock is trading relatively okay.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1017158767379656704
Chart below.

Tesla On Track To Pass Porsche In Annual Vehicle Sales In 2018 | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/11/tesla-on-track-to-pass-porsche-in-annual-vehicle-sales-in-2018/

Please Stop Saying “EVs Are Only 1% Of Auto Sales In The US”
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/01/please-stop-saying-evs-are-only-1-of-auto-sales-in-the-us/
Chart below.

The world’s largest car market just announced an imminent end to gas and diesel cars
A romp through recent, remarkable news about electric vehicles in China and beyond.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/13/16293258/ev-revolution

40
A Tesla production associate tweeted:
7/13/18, 3:47 AM
Over 2000 cars in 2 days, and were not slammed. Ez money.
https://twitter.com/vickisalvador/status/1017676975702302720

Those cars will be delivered in 2-3 weeks, but Tesla doesn't have to pay for the parts for another 60-90 days….

Tesla accelerates Model 3 delivery timelines on new orders
Quote
Just a few weeks after updating the delivery timelines of all Model 3 versions available to order, Tesla is updating them again to accelerate deliveries for new orders.

Some Model 3 buyers could even get their car in a month.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/14/tesla-model-3-delivery-timelines-new-orders/


Wake up old school US auto manufacturers! @Tesla sold 200,000 EVs in America while you were asleep! Most of you will not survive the EV revolution! @Tesla did this despite every roadblock from dealerships and no ability to directly sell in some states.
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1017387573566754817


Tom Randall interviews Elon Musk:
The Model 3 is:  ‘The Last Bet-the-Company Situation’: Q&A With Elon Musk
Quote
TR:  Then why not reach out? Detroit was shouting, “That’s not going to work.”
EM:  Well, when have they not said that? When was the last time they said it would work? Can you recall at any point in the history of Tesla where they said it would work? Is there like some point I didn't notice? Because from my perspective, for the last 15 years that is all they have said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-07-13/-the-last-bet-the-company-situation-q-amp-a-with-elon-musk



Chinese mainstream media massively report Tesla CEO @elonmusk signing ceremony with Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong. Shanghai Municipal Party Committee Secretary Li Qiang mentioned will fully support @Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory during the meeting. $TSLA Video….

-@elonmusk mention The Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory is the first super factory outside the US and will be the most advanced.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1018133348177154048


Another Tesla production associate:
Quote
Every time I see an article like, “Tesla Employees Worked to the Bone, Treated Unfairly” and it’s all written because one person bitched online, I want to find that person and tell them to toughen up or quit. I remember one of the managers explicitly saying, day one of training…
…to expect to work 5 to 7 days a week 12 hours a day, and if that if you can’t handle that, then work somewhere else. It’s not like you aren’t compensated. OT, time and a half, double time... by day 6 you’re making at least 40 bucks an hour.
    If you bitch and complain ever single day, there’s an easy solution. Find another job. Those of us who work hard to push these cars out, don’t need lazy people like you on the line bringing the rest of us down. Yeah, it ducks being on your feet 12 hours a day, but it’s a job…
…and it pays the bills, and ever one of us in the factory is changing the world each car we ship. People love our cars and they love what we do and that should make each and every one of us proud to work here. Work hard, shut up, or get out. That simple. You hate…
…the hours and the money? Cool then. The Mcdonald across the street is always hiring.

End rant.
https://twitter.com/jotakusan/status/1018035274998210561

41
Quote
And the average sales price of these vehicles was $33,560.

The thing to keep in mind with the Model 3 is that it is being purchased not only by people who would buy a $35,000 car.  Many people waiting in line at Tesla stores in 2016 to make a reservation said that this would be the most expensive car they’ve ever purchased.  Others, as we see above, were in the market for a car much more expensive than $35k, but chose the Model 3 over other well-known, “status” car brands — because they really liked the car.

When the iPhone first came out, the common retort was, “No one will pay $400 for a smart phone.”  EVs, with their lower cost of ownership and longer potential lifespan, will up-end traditional car sales habits.  Adoption will happen much more quickly than historical trends would suggest.

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Bikes, bikes, bikes and more...bikes
« on: July 14, 2018, 12:47:07 AM »
“How will we convince more people to bike when this is the experience? Howard Street (btw New Mont. & 3rd). Bell ringing=I'm here, please don't open your door potential ride-share customer.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/asweetplanner/status/1017602732415303681
Video clip at the link.

43
Consequences / Re: Health Effects of Climate Change
« on: July 14, 2018, 12:21:12 AM »
Preparing for the health impacts of a fiery future
Quote
Consider this: last year’s wildfires in Northern California produced the highest levels of pollution ever recorded in the area. In just two days, those fires produced as much pollution as all the state’s cars do in a year.

Wildfire smoke is laden with particulate matter, which triggers asthma, worsens lung and heart disease, and is linked to premature births and low birth weight babies.

And, as fires incinerate everything in their path — including plastics, paints and pesticides — they release toxins into the environment. In Sonoma County last year, for example, melted plastic pipes may have contaminated drinking water with benzene.

The health impacts of wildfire travel long distances: smoke from last year’s Northern California wildfires was detected more than 500 miles away in Mexico. In 2002, smoke from fires in Quebec drifted down the U.S. East Coast, causing a nearly 50 percent increase in hospital admissions for respiratory disease. ...
https://www.sbsun.com/2018/07/10/preparing-for-the-health-impacts-of-a-fiery-future/

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Boring, boring ol' Elon Musk...
« on: July 13, 2018, 08:50:29 PM »
The Boring Company:  “Bricks!”
https://mobile.twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1017769225555972096
Image below; video clip at the link.

Edit:  article:
Elon Musk’s Boring Company unveils bricks being produced from dirt dug in its tunnels
https://electrek.co/2018/07/13/elon-musk-boring-company-bricks-dirt-tunnels/

45
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: July 13, 2018, 02:09:37 PM »
Drought in Ireland reveals old “henge” monument

Ireland's heatwave reveals amazing Newgrange discovery | IrishCentral.com
https://www.irishcentral.com/roots/history/forget-stonehenge-ireland-make-major-new-ancient-discovery

46
Tesla update :
Quote
I just had another coworker tell me he’s ordering a Model 3. AWD. Tesla might sell more Model 3s in 2019 than Honda sells Civics.
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1017500212347236354
——-
Most of my referrals (14 so far this round) began with offering a test drive.
——-
Friend was going to buy a Porsche. Told him to give Tesla the opportunity to change his mind by test driving one. He did, next day placed his Tesla order. $tsla $tslaq
——-
Same with my neighbor who was shopping for a nice Mercedes until he test drove my model 3. Put in reservation and configured his P3D already. He owes me a test drive once he takes delivery :-)
——-

[White interior, sport wheels…]
Quote
These sure look like the ~100 performance #Model3 that $TSLA says were built for test drives. Question is when will they move off the lot into stores? Or have they already and these are leftovers? Images are from July 10th.
https://twitter.com/rsmetrics/status/1017444278283350017


Elon Musk says Tesla will be out of ‘production hell’ in a month as they start ramping up to 10,000 Model 3s per week | Electrek
https://electrek.co/2018/07/12/elon-musk-tesla-production-model/


Tesla’s timeline for Gigafactory 3 in China is actually pretty conservative
Quote
Musk’s statement on Twitter about China’s advanced infrastructure is reflected by feats of construction from the country’s workforce. Earlier this year, 1,500 workers in Eastern China set up a track replacement for a train station in just 8.5 hours. A time-lapse video of the event became viral, mainly due to the project having been conducted with near-surgical precision. Back in 2015, China also made headlines for its rapid construction after Broad Sustainable Building, a prefab construction firm in the Hunan province, managed to complete a 57-story skyscraper in just 19 days using a modular building method.  

Also, if Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory is any indication, the entire facility does not need to be completed before it can start its operations. Tesla started brush clearing and grading the land for Gigafactory 1 in the summer of 2014, and as of date, the expansive battery factory is still less than 30% complete. Despite this, the facility has already stepped up to provide enough battery packs to support the ongoing ramp for the Model 3, which recently managed to exceed a rate of 5,000 vehicles per week.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-china-construction-timeline/

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: July 12, 2018, 10:14:55 PM »
Silicon Valley startup unveils BlackFly, the latest entrant in race to field a flying car
Quote
A Silicon Valley startup called Opener is taking the wraps off a single-seat, all-electric flying vehicle known as BlackFly, which the company says will require no formal licensing in the U.S.

“The future of aviation begins today,” Alan Eustace, a former Google executive (and record-setting free-fall skyjumper) who is now a director at Opener, said in a news release. “The dream of flight, which was so difficult and expensive to obtain, will soon be within the reach of millions. Opener is putting the fun back into flying and opening up a new world of possibilities.”

Opener says a developmental version of the tandem-wing, eight-rotor craft has gone into the air more than 1,400 times, with the total distance flown exceeding 12,000 miles.

...Leng said Opener is aiming to put BlackFly on the market next year for the “price of an SUV.”

Opener said BlackFly is designed primarily to operate from small grassy areas and can travel distances of up to 25 miles at a speed of 62 mph, in accordance with U.S. regulatory restrictions. The batteries can be recharged in as little as 25 minutes.
https://www.geekwire.com/2018/silicon-valley-startup-unveils-blackfly-latest-entrant-race-field-flying-car/

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: July 12, 2018, 09:12:50 PM »
Stepping away from the worst of the worst.

Exxon Quits Koch-Backed Business Group After Climate Change Row
> American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) has faced member exodus
> Oil giant disagreed with climate measures debated last year
Quote
Exxon Mobil Corp. quit the American Legislative Exchange Council, a lobbying group bankrolled by fossil fuel companies, following a disagreement over climate-change policy.

The oil giant won’t be renewing its membership after it expired in June, spokesman Scott Silvestri said by phone. Exxon had a public spat with ALEC in December when some members backed by climate skeptics such as the Heartland Institute moved to convince the federal government to drop its claim that climate change is a risk to human health.

Exxon’s departure comes amid a corporate exodus by the likes of Ford Motor Co. and Expedia Group Inc. departed, largely in response to ALEC’s positions on climate rules, renewable energy and other issues. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-12/exxon-quits-koch-backed-business-group-after-climate-change-row

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: July 12, 2018, 07:56:49 PM »
8 Black Lung Indictments Allege Coal Mine Managers Lied About Health Safety
Former Kentucky miners described being pressured to cover up coal dust monitors meant to protect them. New research shows a resurgence in black lung disease.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11072018/kentucky-coal-mining-black-lung-disease-armstrong-indictments-parkway-kronos-mine-safety-health

50
UN:  ‘Zero Emission Vehicle Challenge’ Launched
Quote
UN Climate Change News, 12 July 2018 - Ahead of the Global Climate Action Summit in San Francisco in September, co-chaired by the UN’s top climate change official Patricia Espinosa, states, regions, cities and international businesses groups and other NGOs are urging the rapid adoption of electric vehicles around the world to decarbonize the transport sector.

A new ‘Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Challenge’ has been launched by The Climate Group and C40 Cities to bring global purchasing power for electric and other clean vehicles together. 
...
The zero emissions leaders are urging the global auto industry to commit to accelerating the manufacture of electric vehicles and step up production to satisfy the growing demand. This marks the first time some of the world’s largest states, regions, cities and businesses are uniting to show the global auto industry the full scale of demand that already exists for electric vehicles. The initiative brings together existing world leading programs, which up to now have been focused on separate sectors, to amplify their collective purchasing power and influence on the market.
https://unfccc.int/news/zero-emission-vehicle-challenge-launched

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