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Messages - Sigmetnow

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 12, 2020, 10:10:10 PM »
So in Germany, automakers are finally offering more than a tiny handful of desirable EVs.  Good!  About damn time! ;D

Not mentioned in the article:
1H2019, Tesla began mass shipping the first of its eagerly-awaited Model 3 to Europe.
1H2020, its California factory was shut down for weeks due to the pandemic.

Sales are still production-limited, not demand limited. :)
Globally, Tesla is still Number 1 — and by a large margin, if you are only counting pure EVs.  Tesla has definitely not been “crushed.” ;)
World’s Top 5 Plug-In EV Automotive Groups Ranked By Sales In H1 2020
Quote
Tesla remains #1 by a significant margin among plug-ins and is a dominant player in the BEV category.

With the first half of 2020 already behind us, let's check which automotive groups are selling the most plug-in electric cars and all-electric cars globally.

The total volume in H1 2020 amounted to about 950,000 and more than two-thirds (close to 643,000) were all-electric cars - according to EV Sales Blog.

Plug-ins (BEV+PHEvs)
The top company by sales volume among groups is Tesla with 179,050 sales, which also has expanded its market share in the overall plug-in car market from 14% a year ago to 19%!
However, the Volkswagen Group is moving fast using many of its brands and is currently #2 with 124,018 and 13% market share.
The biggest change compared to the top 5 in 2019 is the absence of Chinese groups: BYD, Geely Group and BAIC. They disappeared in Q1 2020 rank and did not manage to return yet.

Plug-in car sales in H1 2020:
   1   Tesla: 179,050 (19% share)
   2   Volkswagen Group: 124,018 (13% share)

   3   Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance: 84,501 (9% share)
   4   BMW Group: 68,503 (7% share)
   5   Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai, Kia): 63,731 (7% share)
Top 5 total: 519,803 (54.7% share)
others: 430,273 (45.3% share)
Total: 950,076

Battery-electric only (BEV)
Once we subtract plug-in hybrids from the equation, the top five changes a lot, as Tesla's position improved to a dominant 28% share!
Then we see the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance, slightly ahead of the Volkswagen Group - both with a 10% market share.
All-electric car sales in H1 2020:
   1   Tesla: 179,050 (28% share)
   2   Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance: 65,521 (10% share)
   3   Volkswagen Group: 64,542 (10% share)

   4   BYD: 46,554 (7% share)
   5   Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai, Kia): 43,689 (7% share)
Top 5 total: 399,356 (62.1% share)
others: 243,621 (37.9% share)
Total: 642,977
https://insideevs.com/news/437156/world-top-ev-automotive-groups-sales-h1-2020/amp/

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 12, 2020, 04:05:07 PM »
Elon Musk Splits Stock, Makes Tesla's Case to Join Dow Jones
Quote
Until Tuesday, there was one seemingly insurmountable obstacle that would have made Tesla getting into the Dow Jones Industrials impossible. Its stock price of nearly $1,400 per share as of the Aug. 11 close would've made it an impractical choice to join the price-weighted average, because its influence over the entire Dow Jones Industrials would've been unjustifiably high. Even now, the fact that Apple has a nearly 11% weighting in the Dow is somewhat controversial, and that's with Apple's share price of just $450. The idea of having Tesla represent 30% was a complete nonstarter.

Yet Musk surprised just about everyone by doing something that Tesla has never done before: splitting its stock. It announced a 5-for-1 split for owners of record on Aug. 21, with shares to start trading on a split-adjusted basis a week and a half later on Aug. 31.

To be clear, Tesla's board of directors didn't explicitly say it's trying to join the Dow. In its press release, the company cited the desire to "make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors." Yet with the advent of fractional share trading, that's an increasingly difficult argument to make. ...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/12/elon-musk-splits-stock-teslas-case-dow-jones/

Notes:
Dow Jones vs. NASDAQ vs. S&P 500: The Differences
https://primexbt.com/blog/dow-jones-vs-nasdaq-vs-sp500/

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the Nasdaq. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow in 1896.

Can Stocks Be Traded on More Than One Exchange?
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/05/stockmultipleexchanges.asp

3
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 12, 2020, 04:04:56 AM »
Quote
T.S. Kelso (@TSKelso) 8/11/20, 7:26 PM
We now have 230 pieces of cataloged debris from the 2020 May 8 Fregat fragmentation event. The debris has spread all over LEO due to differential precession. Yet one more reason not to leave upper stages in orbit after they have completed their mission:

Orbital Debris Quarterly News - August 2020
https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/quarterly-news/pdfs/odqnv24i3.pdf
Second Fragmentation of Fregat Upper Stage Debris
https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1293327972074582017
Image below.

Orbital Debris Quarterly News - May 2018
https://orbitaldebris.jsc.nasa.gov/quarterly-news/pdfs/odqnv22i2.pdf
Fragmentation of Fregat-SB Upper Stage Debris

Note:  SpaceX (among other launchers) specifically program their upper stages to safely dump their fuel and de-orbit after delivering their payload.

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 12, 2020, 03:16:49 AM »
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 8/11/20, 12:42 PM
Lucid is aiming to deliver the first Air in Spring 2021, but they note that the pandemic has delayed them somewhat.

It’s anyone’s guess who will deliver a 500 mile vehicle first: Tesla or Lucid.

i’ll put my money on Tesla personally
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1293226234172682240

—- Edit:
How EVs are portrayed in the news:
Quote
Earl of FrunkPuppy (@28delayslater) 8/11/20, 6:01 AM
Taycan - range doesn’t matter.
Jag - range doesn’t matter
Etron - range doesn’t matter
Lucid - range is everything and this will kill tesla regardless of price / battery size
 ;D
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1293125324969058304
< I love how lucid never mentions T Ξ S L A, unlike the others
Earl: Yep. They actually specifically said they are not a Tesla killer. Won’t stop the news

5
Covid-19 is here to stay. People will have to adapt
The world is not experiencing a second wave: it never got over the first
Quote
IT IS ASTONISHING how rapidly the pandemic has spread, despite all the efforts to stop it. On February 1st, the day covid-19 first appeared on our front cover, the World Health Organisation counted 2,115 new cases. On June 28th its daily tally reached 190,000. That day as many new cases were notched up every 90 minutes as had been recorded in total by February 1st.

The world is not experiencing a second wave: it never got over the first. Some 10m people are known to have been infected. Pretty much everywhere has registered cases (Turkmenistan and North Korea have not, though, like Antarctica). For every country such as China, Taiwan and Vietnam, which seems to be able to contain the virus, there are more, in Latin America and South Asia, where it is raging. Others, including the United States, are at risk of losing control or, in much of Africa, in the early phase of their epidemic. Europe is somewhere in between.

The worst is to come. Based on research in 84 countries, a team at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology reckons that, for each recorded case, 12 go unrecorded and that for every two covid-19 deaths counted, a third is misattributed to other causes. Without a medical breakthrough, it says, the total number of cases will climb to 200m-600m by spring 2021. At that point, between 1.4m and 3.7m people will have died. Even then, well over 90% of the world’s population will still be vulnerable to infection—more if immunity turns out to be transient.

The actual outcome depends on how societies manage the disease. Here the news is better. Epidemiologists understand how to stop covid-19. You catch it indoors, in crowds, when people raise their voices. The poor are vulnerable, as are the elderly and those with other conditions. You can contain the virus with three tactics: changes in behaviour; testing, tracing and isolation; and, if they fail, lockdowns. The worse a country is at testing—and many governments have failed to build enough capacity—the more it has to fall back on the other two. Good public health need not be expensive. Dharavi, a slum of 850,000 people in Mumbai, tamed an outbreak (see article).

Treatments have improved, thanks to research and dealing with patients. Although mass vaccination is still months away at best (see article), the first therapies are available. More is known about how to manage the disease—don’t rush to put people on respirators, do give them oxygen early. Better treatment helps explain why the share of hospital patients who went on to be admitted to intensive care fell in Britain from 12% at the end of March to 4% in mid to late May.

And economies have adapted. They are still suffering, of course. J.P. Morgan, a bank, predicts that the peak-to-trough decline in the first half of the year in the 39 economies it follows will be around 10% of GDP. But workers stuck in Zoom hell have discovered that they can get a surprising amount done from home. In China Starbucks designed “contactless” ordering, cutting the time customers spend in its coffee shops. Supply chains that struggled now run smoothly. Factories have found ways to stagger shifts, shield staff behind plastic and change work patterns so that personal contact is minimised.
Now that nationwide lockdowns are done, governments can make sensible trade-offs—banning large indoor gatherings, say and allowing the reopening of schools and shops. Sometimes, as in some American states, they will loosen too much and have to reverse course. Others will learn from their mistakes.

The problem is that, without a cure or a vaccine, containment depends on people learning to change their behaviour. After the initial covid-19 panic, many are becoming disenchanted and resistant. Masks help stop the disease, but in Europe and America some refuse to wear one because they see them as emasculating or, worse, Democratic. Thorough handwashing kills the virus, but who has not relapsed into bad old habits? Parties are dangerous but young people cooped up for months have developed a devil-may-care attitude. Most important, as the months drag on, people just need to earn some money. In the autumn, as life moves indoors, infections could soar.

Changing social norms is hard. Just look at AIDS, known for decades to be prevented by safe sex and clean needles. Yet in 2018, 1.7m people were newly infected with HIV, the virus that causes it. Covid-19 is easier to talk about than AIDS, but harder to avoid. Wearing a mask is chiefly about protecting others; the young, fit and asymptomatic are being asked to follow tedious rules to shield the old and infirm.

Changing behaviour requires clear communication from trusted figures, national and local. But many people do not believe their politicians. In countries such as America, Iran, Britain, Russia and Brazil, which have the highest caseloads, presidents and prime ministers minimised the threat, vacillated, issued bad advice or seemed more interested in their own political fortunes than in their country—sometimes all at once.

Covid-19 is here for a while at least. The vulnerable will be afraid to go out and innovation will slow, creating a 90% economy that consistently fails to reach its potential. Many people will fall ill and some of them will die. You may have lost interest in the pandemic. It has not lost interest in you.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/07/02/covid-19-is-here-to-stay-people-will-have-to-adapt

6
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 12, 2020, 02:25:27 AM »
—-It’s not the Starship “build site” ;D
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/11/20, 2:15 PM
SN 5 & 6 at Starship Production Complex in Texas
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1293249680445526018
[Photo at the link.]

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/11/20, 2:17 PM

SN7 will be new alloy test tank taken to burst pressure. SN8 will have body flaps & nosecone.

< How long till SN6 is ready to hop? Will it be to 150 meters like SN5?
Joseph Day (@eusapient) 8/11/20, 3:05 PM
Has to do the pressure test, preburner, static fire, and then maybe it can hop. Perhaps by then SN5 will be back and we can watch two Starship prototypes flying. SN6 hopefully will go faster than SN5, which seemed to take forever, more than a month. SN6 needs a Mass Sim too.
https://twitter.com/eusapient/status/1293262309129773056


    “Progress is accelerating.” Musk tweeted after Tuesday’s test flight.


—- Future SpaceX Spaceport
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/11/20, 6:19 PM
@Teslarati Aiming to make it super fun!
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1293311095013220353

SpaceX is hiring a Spaceport resort developer for its Texas rocket factory
Quote
SpaceX has big plans to ferry travelers to Mars in the near future, and part of that venture looks to include luxury accommodations while customers spend time with the company on Earth. A recent job board posting for a “Resort Development Manager” has come to light, specifically referring to a project at the launch provider’s Boca Chica Village location in Texas.

“SpaceX is committed to developing this town into a 21st century Spaceport. We are looking for a talented Resort Development Manager to oversee the development of SpaceX’s first resort from inception to completion,” the posting states. …
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-spaceport-resort-developer-texas-rocket-factory-job-opening/amp/

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 12, 2020, 01:03:46 AM »
Tesla (TSLA) declares five-for-one stock split
 

Quote
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) has announced that its Board of Directors has approved a 5:1 split for the company’s common stock in the form of a dividend. The move will make the ownership of TSLA stock more available for both employees and investors alike.

The electric automaker stated that each stockholder of record on August 21, 2020, will receive a dividend of four additional shares of common stock for each share that the investor held on that date. It will be distributed after the closing bell on August 28, 2020.
Trading will then begin on a stock split-adjusted basis on the following trading day, which is Monday, August 31.

Stock splits, or stock divides, are used to increase the number of shares in a company. The act of splitting a stock will decrease the market price of individual shares, but it will not affect the total market capitalization of the company that chooses to perform the split.
The move could help smaller investors afford TSLA stock, which has tripled in value since the beginning of the year.

TSLA stock closed at $1,374.39 today, but aftermarket trading has brought the price of the stock back up by nearly 6%. At the time of writing, the stock was being traded at $1,453.55. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-five-for-one-stock-split/amp/

8
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 11, 2020, 08:58:20 PM »
—- Starship
SN5 was moved from the landing pad back to the build site this morning, for inspection, repair, and possible reflight.
SN6 has been brought out of the high bay; a road closure this afternoon may be for transporting it to the launch site.

Quote
Mary (@BocaChicaGal) 8/11/20, 1:43 PM
SN5 and SN6 at SpaceX Boca Chica.
@NASASpaceflight 
https://twitter.com/bocachicagal/status/1293241631286734849
Photo below.


—— Falcon 9 reuse
From the most recent Starlink launch: both fairing halves were scooped out of the water (looking grossly undamaged) and booster 1051.5 has returned to port after its fifth flight and landing.

Quote
Julia (@julia_bergeron) 8/10/20, 9:15 AM
Falcon 9 fairing half with people for scale. Imagine piloting a ship to get under this as it parafoils down towards you. There is guidance involved, yes, but sometimes things don't go as planned and the Captain has to be ready for abort and scoop.
https://twitter.com/julia_bergeron/status/1292811705857249281
Photo below. Reminder:  an even bigger fairing is in the works for military missions that will require it.

Starlink: SpaceX’s 100th mission may break an incredible reusability record
SpaceX's upcoming launch could raise the bar for reusing rockets.
Quote
SpaceX may be about to take another step in its plan to reuse space rockets.
The company is expected to send up its 11th batch of Starlink satellites in mid-August, sending up 58 craft from Space Launch Complex 40 at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. The mission is also expected to send up three SkySat imagine satellites for Planet as part of a ride-sharing agreement, after the company previously hitched a ride in a Starlink mission in June. The extra satellites will be used to help bring SpaceX's high-speed, low-latency internet connectivity constellation to life.

But SpaceX's mission could be notable for its impressive use of rocket reusability. Eric Berger, senior space reporter at Ars Technica, claimed via Twitter last week that the mission could use a booster that has previously flown five times. This would be the sixth mission for booster B1049, the first time SpaceX has flown the same first-stage rocket that many times.

As Twitter user Simon Merton noted in response, this could be SpaceX's 100th mission. The website SpaceXStats notes that the company has launched 99 missions. Of those, five were with the Falcon 1 rocket, 91 with the Falcon 9 rocket, and three with the Falcon Heavy. SpaceX's first successful launch, and fourth launch overall, was in 2008.

Reusing rockets forms part of its mission to make spaceflight more accessible for all. Landing a booster after flight saves approximately $46.5 million of the $62 million price tag associated with a Falcon 9 launch. That means saving the booster enables SpaceX to reduce the costs of spaceflights even further, which in turn can fund more ambitious projects like a city on Mars. …
https://www.inverse.com/innovation/starlink-spacexs-100th-mission

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/11/20, 2:36 PM
@Teslarati A little toastier each flight
   
SpaceX returns five-flight Falcon 9 booster to port as next reuse milestone nears
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-falcon-9-five-flight-booster-return/amp/
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1293254976739799040

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 11, 2020, 08:25:14 PM »
The remaining question:  How big is the Lucid Air’s battery?

Quote
Lucid claims the high voltage and other improvements helped the car be so efficient, but rumor has it its battery pack will be below 130 kWh. If that is the case, it would be about 30 percent larger than the 100 kWh battery pack currently on the Model S.

Not by chance, the difference between 517 miles and 402 miles is 115 miles – or 28.6 percent more than what the Model S offers. We would not doubt if the Air's battery pack was 128.6 kWh. ...
Lucid Makes Tesla Eat Dust With Air's Estimated 517-Mile EPA Range
https://insideevs.com/news/437878/lucid-air-estimated-epa-range-517-mi/amp/

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 11, 2020, 04:20:50 PM »
Meanwhile, Lucid actually knows what needs to be done:
“I am therefore pleased that we have consequently achieved an estimated EPA 517 miles of range today whilst also significantly reducing our battery pack’s capacity, thereby reducing vehicle weight and cost, and improving interior space. Such exceptional efficiency, achieved through in-house technology, is undeniably a measure of a true EV tech company.”

Lucid Air to top Tesla Model S with astonishing 517-mile estimated EPA range
Quote
Lucid’s upcoming all-electric luxury sedan, the Air, will boast 517 miles of battery range per single charge, making it the longest range electric vehicle in the industry.

Lucid’s range tests for the Air were secured at FEV North America, Inc. in Auburn Hills, Michigan where it conducted trial runs utilizing the EPA’s Multicycle Test Procedure (SAE J1634 Oct 2012 Standard) with the standard adjustment factor.

The results indicated that the Air would have a 745-mile city range rating and a 730-mile highway rating, giving the vehicle a 738-mile combined unadjusted range estimation. After the adjustment factor, the range was estimated to be 517 miles of EPA range, beating the Tesla Model S, which holds the current production vehicle record for the longest range at 402 miles per charge.

Rawlinson, a former Tesla Chief Engineer who worked on the Model S, has been heavily focused on the aerodynamic development of the Lucid Air. After testing the Air’s aerodynamic performance at the Windshear facility in North Carolina, it was determined that the vehicle had a drag coefficient of .21, beating the Model S (.23) and Porsche Taycan (.22).

Aerodynamic efficiency plays a key role in achieving world-beating range and performance and is particularly valuable to an EV in that it provides ‘smart range’ independent of battery pack size,” Rawlinson said in June. “So naturally, we intensively focused upon aerodynamics throughout the Lucid Air’s development.”

Range and efficiency are widely recognized as the most relevant proof points by which EV technical prowess is measured,” Rawlinson said. A few years ago, Lucid revealed that it had achieved a 400-mile range vehicle. Still, the company planned to develop and continue improving upon the foundation it had set for the Air to become the most efficient electric car on the market.

“I am therefore pleased that we have consequently achieved an estimated EPA 517 miles of range today whilst also significantly reducing our battery pack’s capacity, thereby reducing vehicle weight and cost, and improving interior space. Such exceptional efficiency, achieved through in-house technology, is undeniably a measure of a true EV tech company,” Rawlinson added.

The production version of the Air will be revealed during an online event on September 9, 2020. Information on the vehicle’s interior and exterior designs, as well as specifications, configurations, and pricing options, will also be shared during the event.
https://www.teslarati.com/lucid-air-range-517-mile-epa-estimate/amp/

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 11, 2020, 04:15:40 PM »
I think Nikola just wants to out-Tesla Tesla — like Faraday Future, they are big on renderings, announcements and moving dirt — but every day they are sinking further into the well of “that isn’t going to happen.”

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 10, 2020, 08:21:02 PM »
Cadillac has revealed the vehicle that will kick off its electric future... which is still two years away.

After earlier postponing their planned reveal of the Cadillac Lyriq due to the pandemic, GM had an on-line event August 6.
Electric 2023 Cadillac Lyriq revealed as brand shifts to battery power
Quote
The Lyriq is a midsized SUV with a promised range of over 300 miles between charges that is scheduled to go on sale in the U.S. in late 2022, when it will become Cadillac’s first all-electric vehicle and compete with models like the Audi E-Tron Jaguar I-Pace and Tesla Model X.

Offered in rear-wheel-drive and all-wheel-drive models, the Lyriq is powered by GM’s upcoming Ultium battery, which is more advanced than the current technology used in the Chevrolet Bolt.

GM North America president Steve Carlisle said pricing for the Lyriq will start under $75,000 and that the brand is aiming to offer electric versions of its entire lineup by 2030.
https://www.foxnews.com/auto/electric-2023-cadillac-lyric-suv-revealed-as-brand-shifts-to-battery-power.amp

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 8/6/20, 7:54 PM
"Our objective is to offer over 300 miles range on what we’re doing with these products and the variants on these products. But we’re still in the development phase of the program"
Translation: We hope we can hit 300 but we have no clue
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1291523153252896768

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 8/6/20, 7:42 PM
well, they have the right idea of what they need to build. Lyriq looks like a compelling product.
but can they actually build it? doesn’t look like they have a near production prototype.
And they’re relying on LG chem for batteries? Let’s see when it starts production...
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1291520004463005696
< I agree. Although it was gag-worthy at times, this was the most impressive legacy presentation to date in my opinion. I'm rooting for Cadillac! Execute!


—— Lucid Air Will Debut DreamDrive Lidar-Enhanced Autonomous Driving Suite
July 31st, 2020
Quote
Lucid is leading up to the official reveal of its first production car, the Lucid Air, on September 9. The Lucid factory is under construction in Casa Grande, Arizona and the first production cars are expected to be delivered to customers in early 2021. In an e-mail to CleanTechnica, Lucid says when the Lucid Air hits the streets, it will feature one of the most advanced autonomous driver assistance systems available from any manufacturer, including Tesla. …
https://www.thinkingport.com/2020/08/01/news-104792/

From 2017:  Lucid Air to Start at $60,000 (RWD 240 miles of range) with higher trim-level models north of $100,000
Lucid Air to Start at $60,000
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/amp15341999/lucid-air-to-start-at-60000-fancier-version-to-top-100k/


—— Nikola
Quote
ALEX (@ajtourville) 8/6/20, 11:17 AM
What Trevor Milton calls Nikola's "factory in Ulm Germany" is a building that's only 322 ft x 62 ft (20,000 sq ft)... and it's supposed to supply the entire EU market and the U.S. market with BEV Nikola Tre? ;D $NKLA
https://twitter.com/ajtourville/status/1291392989823225861

Jessica Meckmann  (@meckimac) 8/6/20, 6:27 AM

$nkla Thread time!
Recent comments made by Nikola executives @nikolatrevor and Mark Russell made me curious about the current state of their Iveco Ulm, Germany factory. Almost 3 months ago, Trevor said the Ulm factory is almost done. I therefore went digging... #nikolaTre #iveco
https://twitter.com/meckimac/status/1291319994580643840
~ this is what's written in their 10-Q:
"In 2019, we partnered with Iveco, a subsidiary of CNHI, to manufacture the Nikola Tre BEV truck at the Iveco manufacturing plant in Ulm, Germany through a JV with CNHI, which is expected to commence operations in the third quarter of 2020."
Satellite image below.  More info at the thread at the link.

Quote
ALEX  (@ajtourville) 8/5/20, 6:50 PM
According to 10-Q filing for Q2-2020, the only binding reservations are for the "up to 800 trucks" in the Anheuser-Busch contract but these are cancellable if Nikola does not fulfill its commitment regarding delivery timeline (i.e. December 31, 2021) which it won't & can't. $NKLA
https://twitter.com/ajtourville/status/1291144592461529094
< So they have to deliver 800 FCEV trucks to Anheuser-Busch by Dec 31 ‘21, but they will start production of FCEV trucks only in 2023... that’s going to work out perfectly!
Text image below.

Per Trevor Milton:  Nikola’s “vertical integration”  means getting other companies to do everything for him. 2 min. 
➡️youtu.be/brq9Cggbf04

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 10, 2020, 07:15:19 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/7/20, 1:12 PM
Good piece on Giga Berlin construction
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1291784200178159616
Tesla Giga Berlin's First prefabricated Wall and August Update - YouTube


 

—-Dynamic Brake Lights are finally available in the U.S.
(A quick search suggests BMWs & motorcycles have had this for a while, but they are otherwise rare in the U.S.)
Tesla 2020.32.1 OTA Software Update With Dynamic Brake Lights, Suspension Improvements & More
Quote
From yesterday, Tesla officially started to roll out the 2020.32.1 OTA software update to some owners in the US.
What's new in this update:
Dynamic Brake Lights
If you are driving over 50 km/h (31 mph) and brake forcefully, the brake lights will now flash quickly to warn other drivers that your car is rapidly slowing down. If your car stops completely, the hazard warning lights will flash until you press the accelerator or manually press the hazard warning lights button to turn them off. …
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-2020-32-1-ota-software-update-with-dynamic-brake-lights-suspension-improvements-more

—- Improving Tesla traffic display visualization
Quote
< Hey Elon will Cybertruck have a custom model in the autopilot visualization?  Rendering as a normal truck seems inappropriate...
 Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 7/30/20, 2:39 AM
Yeah. Display will also soon render Teslas specifically as their model & color instead of as a generic sedan/SUV. Has potential for a fun punch buggy sort of game.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1288725893259698176

[Tesla hacker “green” found some code:]
green (@greentheonly) 8/9/20, 12:59 PM
It looks like Tesla is planning (already doing?) display of (recognized) Tesla cars on autopilot cars visualization as such. Keep your eye on it?
Also no models yet but coming later:  Ambulance, Fire truck, Police car and "construction"
https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1292505897420427269
Image at the link.
< Pretty big neural network advancement from “minivan” or “not mini van”
Green: I am more interested in model 3 vs. model Y tell apart rate ;)


—- Thread by @ReflexFunds (rolled into one page at the link):
Some thoughts on Tesla’s Autopilot & Robotaxi strategy:
Quote
1) I believe Tesla has a unique & superior strategy for solving Robotaxis which I categorise as the Intelligence/Data heavy approach, based on the assumption that Robotaxis are a very difficult intelligence problem to solve.
2) This is opposed to the approach of the rest of the industry which I would categorise as hardware heavy, Intelligence/data light which is based on the assumption that self driving is a relatively easy intelligence problem. I’ll explain this more later.

A: When solving Robotaxis, prediction is the hard problem – it requires a lot of intelligence and experience. Detection is easier.
B. Hence our strategy should be optimised to solving prediction, not detection.
12) C. To solve prediction of other objects paths we need billions of miles of real world driving experience to train the cars to understand the universe it is interacting with and to be able to solve enough edge cases to beat human driving accuracy by 2-10x.
13) D) We can't get billions of miles of driving experience without a hardware suite affordable to install in a consumer owned car.
E)Lidar won't be cheap enough to install in a high volume consumer car in a reasonable timeframe (& also has issues with rain & lidar interference)
14) F). Therefore we cannot use Lidar, even though it is a shortcut to solving the detection problem because it can easily measure distance and velocity of objects with hardware rather than software & intelligence. …
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1292186746764038145.html

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 8/9/20, 3:02 PM
These days Autopilot makes detecting stop signs and traffic lights look easy — but it’s not.
Any bets on how long it will take legacy auto to replicate Tesla’s data engine?
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1292536861387194369
Video at the link: Andrej Karpathy presentation clip,  ~2 minutes.  All stop signs are not the same….


—- When might Tesla see its inclusion to the S&P 500? 
Rob Maurer looks at data of other companies which have been added since 2017, to give us historical timing benchmarks.
When Will Tesla Be Added to the S&P 500? (TSLA Stock) - YouTube

➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vESXdmRZFTU

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 10, 2020, 05:49:54 PM »
Brits Want Sales Of Gas And Diesel Cars To Cease Before 2035
Quote
82 percent of the 1,114 respondents feel that the rule should be brought forward from 2035, with 60 percent saying that a 2030 phasing out of ICE vehicles would be a good idea.

The survey also showed that almost all (96 percent) believed that an earlier phasing out of ICE cars would have a positive affect on public health, while 72.9 percent said that it would also have a positive affect on the UK economy. …
https://insideevs.com/news/437966/uk-end-gas-diesel-car-sales/amp/

—-
Hyundai spins Ioniq into separate brand, announces 3 new electric cars
On Sunday, the company announced it's spinning Ioniq as a new brand that's dedicated to battery-powered electric vehicles.

The Ioniq 5, a midsize CUV (compact SUV), coming in 2021, will be based on the EV 45 concept, unveiled by Hyundai in Frankfurt last year.
The first vehicle to come after the Ioniq 5 will be the Ioniq 6 sedan, based on the company's Prophecy concept, in 2022. Finally, the Ioniq 7 SUV will be coming in early 2024.

Notably, the currently available Hyundai Ioniq EV won't be sold under the new brand.
https://mashable.com/article/hyundai-ioniq-5/

——
Australia
An electric vehicle (Tesla Model 3) just won a Targa Rally in WA for the first time
August 9, 2020
https://techau.com.au/tesla-model-3-just-won-a-targa-rally-in-wa-for-the-first-time/

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: August 10, 2020, 05:13:32 PM »
"You can't get on the plane without wearing your mask. But we do have some customers that don't want to keep their mask on during flight," Bastian said Friday. "We remind them several times over the course of getting ready to take off to please keep that mask on. But if they insist upon not wearing it — we insist that they're not going to travel on Delta today."

Delta CEO: 'Well over 100 people' have been banned from flying after refusing to wear masks
Quote
New York(CNN Business) Dozens of people have been barred from flying on Delta airplanes for refusing to comply with the airline industry's mask policies, Delta CEO Ed Bastian told CNN's Julia Chatterley on Friday.

"We've had well over 100 people that have refused to keep their mask on during the flight," he added.
A spokesperson confirmed to CNN Business that those people have lost the ability to book future flights on Delta. …
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/07/business/delta-air-lines-masks-ban-passengers/index.html

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: August 10, 2020, 05:09:45 PM »
Quote
Saudi Aramco Profit Drops 50% for First Half of the Year as Pandemic Batters Oil Price

And here’s what they plan to do about it:

Saudi Aramco to press ahead with plan to boost output capacity, CEO says
Quote
DUBAI/RIYADH (Reuters) - Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) is moving ahead with plans to boost crude output capacity by 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to 13 million bpd despite cuts in capital expenditure this year and next year, the state oil group’s CEO said on Monday.
...
Aramco reported a 73% fall in its second quarter profit, as lockdowns to contain the coronavirus reduced oil consumption and sent prices tumbling to levels not seen in nearly two decades. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-results-capacity/saudi-aramco-to-press-ahead-with-plan-to-boost-output-capacity-ceo-says-idUSKCN2561U9

17
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 10, 2020, 02:27:06 PM »
—- The Military Launch Contract: Another Perspective
SpaceX, ULA win multibillion-dollar military launch contract years in the making
Quote
…  Regardless of the missed opportunities, the NSSL LSA Phase 2 contract is a major win for SpaceX and guarantees the company’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets some 13-14 military launch contracts over a five-year period. For ULA, the victory is like a massive relief, given that the company’s next-generation (expendable) Vulcan Centaur rocket has next to no chance of sustaining itself with commercial launch contracts. Much like Atlas V in the last decade of the rocket’s life and Delta IV over most of its two-decade career, ULA’s Vulcan rocket will continue the trend of relying almost exclusively on US military contracts.

This time around, however, the US military’s preferential treatment of ULA is nakedly obvious. At almost every turn, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets can provide the same launch services as ULA for anywhere from 20-50% less. For the few missions (direct to geostationary) where ULA’s Atlas V, Delta IV, and Vulcan rockets might actually have a step up over SpaceX, the US could have easily awarded ULA the smaller 40% share or even split that 40% share with Blue Origin or Northrop Grumman, giving SpaceX the lion’s share and likely saving hundreds of millions of dollars – if not $1B+ – over the next seven years.

Instead, business (more or less) as usual will continue for at least another decade as the US military functionally subsidizes ULA’s existence by prioritizing a more expensive rocket to achieve the same outcome. The first LSA Phase 2 launches are currently scheduled to begin no earlier than (NET) 2022. 
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-ula-win-multibillion-dollar-military-contract/


—- Starlinks
Quote
Jonathan McDowell (@planet4589) 8/9/20, 5:06 PM
Starlink 22 reentered at 1453 UTC Aug 9 over Sichuan
https://twitter.com/planet4589/status/1292568015742078980
Map with track at the link.

~ Starlinks 58, 28, 66, 33 and 1040 are also in very low orbits now and may reenter in the coming days
~ Yes, their orbits are being deliberately lowered. They are prototypes that are no longer needed now the operational V1.0 sats are in orbit

Elias Eccli: From launch 1 to launch 8: 478 launched, 474 of which still in orbit, 458 of which appear healthy. All 57 sats from launch 9 appear healthy as well so far, i.e. 535/531/515.
youtu.be/aj_-91dV87M
< They are just burning up in the atmosphere or does anything touch the ground?
Jonathan McDowell: Burning up, most likely
Later Starlinks are designed to burn up completely upon reentry.


—- Starship, Velociraptor, thrust to weight ratio
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/7/20, 5:29 PM
I think we can get (Veloci)Raptor T/W on par with Merlin. Latter also started out with about half its current T/W.

Elon Musk:Yeah, full name of engine is Velociraptor or Raptor for short

< Is Super Heavy increasing in 2m or Starship increasing 2m in height?
Elon Musk:  Haha, good catch. Booster will have fixed legs that add ~2m in height.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1291849720973783040


—- Boca Chica Starship Spaceport, Sunday August 9, 2020
Quote
Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) 8/9/20, 9:34 PM
A lengthy video covering all elements of the SpaceX Boca Chica spaceport, from the Production Facility to the launch site, including drive pasts and focused areas.

Video and Pictures from Mary (@BocaChicaGal). Edited by Jack Beyer (@thejackbeyer).

➡️youtu.be/C7iRxboxFb4
 
https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1292635508997226497

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 09, 2020, 07:23:37 PM »
U.S.

School that suspended students for posting photos of unmasked students crowded in hallway now reports nine positive cases among students and faculty.

School District defends itself saying: “Situations in which students crowd into halls only happen in between classes.”

 ::) 

9 people test positive for coronavirus at Georgia school where viral photos showed packed hallways
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/511212-9-people-test-positive-for-coronavirus-at-georgia-school-where-viral

19
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 09, 2020, 04:05:23 PM »
—— Starship SN5
Photo below.
Quote
RGVAerialPhotography (@RGVaerialphotos) 8/8/20, 2:27 PM
SN5 after its historic 150M Hop!
@elonmusk #spacex #bocachica
2100ftMsl  08/07
What’s do you think will happen to it after it gets moved?
patreon.com/RGVaerial
https://twitter.com/rgvaerialphotos/status/1292165652132892679

Everyday Astronaut (@Erdayastronaut) 8/8/20, 6:11 PM

Spot the tiny humans!!! This shot really puts it into scale!!! A full blown Starship and SuperHeavy will be hard to fathom!!!!
https://twitter.com/erdayastronaut/status/1292221982910615552 

Quote
Everyday Astronaut (@Erdayastronaut) 8/8/20, 6:24 PM
@elonmusk what’s gonna happen to our good friend SN-5? Will it fly again? Will it get 3 raptors and fly a little higher? Will it Hopper and just watch the others fly?

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/8/20, 6:28 PM
Not sure yet, but hopefully. Will need leg & other repairs. Probably SN6 flies before SN5.
We need to make flights simple & easy — many per day.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1292226279995879426  

——
Quote
Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) 8/8/20, 8:28 PM
A full video showing how the SpaceX teams took care of Starship SN5 following her hop on to the landing pad.
The first-ever post-flight processing flow for Starship.
Video and Pictures from Mary (@BocaChicaGal). Edited by Jack Beyer (@thejackbeyer).
https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1292256474866032640
⬇️




===== SpaceX

Success of SpaceX an inspiration for all
South China Morning Post - editorial
https://apple.news/AlCmnYxBrQFGo51LHbx1SQg

———————————————

20
Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: August 09, 2020, 03:56:54 AM »
Elon Musk has a secret Boring Company station between LA to Vegas in the works
August 3, 2020
Quote
Elon Musk’s Boring Company appears to have something brewing in between Los Angeles and Las Vegas, and it could have to deal with the company’s plans to link the two cities with a tunnel.

Photos showed a Boring Company machine, along with large tents set up in the middle of the desert in Adelanto, California. The presence of machinery and storage tents hints toward the possibility that the Boring Company could be gearing up for the prospective link between Los Angeles and Las Vegas. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/boring-company-station-adelanto-lv-la-connection/

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: August 08, 2020, 09:13:48 PM »
Quote
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 8/7/20, 11:24 PM
Mauritius has declared a state of environmental emergency as oil from a sinking ship has begun to spread.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1291938347598974982
Quote
Priya Hein (@PriyaHein) 8/7/20, 4:51 AM
Absolutely shattered by the ecological crisis faced by Mauritius. These pictures of the oil spill, wrecking our most beautiful lagoons, were taken by my friend Eric Villars on his flight to Rodrigues this morning. #mauritius #oilspill #wakashio #bluebay #coralreefs #marinepark 
https://twitter.com/priyahein/status/1291658086617407489

22
“Beef is clearly declining as a percentage of total meat production, from 39% in 1961 to only 20% in 2018. Pork is exactly the same percentage of total meat production now as it was in 1961: 35%. All of the growth has come from chicken, which has more than tripled from 11% to 34% of total meat production.”

The World Is Finally Losing Its Taste for Meat
Production is projected to dip for the second year in a row, and there’s reason to believe we’re already falling out of love with beef.
August 8, 2020
Quote
Global consumption of animal proteins has been rising, apparently inexorably, for the past six decades. The coronavirus pandemic has finally changed that trajectory.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that meat production—a decent proxy for consumption—dropped in 2019, and it forecasts a decline again this year. Last year was only the second since 1961 in which production fell; two consecutive years of decline is unprecedented and could be the start of something durable. We’re already at peak pasture as far as demand is concerned, and it looks like we’re also approaching peak beef, even in places like steak-crazed Brazil.
...
But by any number of measures, beef consumption looks very near its peak, and the investors betting more than $1 billion on alternative proteins this year are hoping that their portfolio companies can drive meat demand down further. For now though, the easiest and the nearest-term solution for reducing land use emissions is simply to use less land. Substituting chicken for beef does this already on the margin; a measurable shift away from beef consumption could take that trend much further. …
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-30/good-news-for-climate-change-as-world-loses-its-taste-for-meat

23
COVID-19 was cited as the reason for 63,517 job cuts in July. The respiratory illness has been blamed for 1.075 million layoffs so far this year. The balance of job cuts in July were attributed to market conditions, a downturn in demand and bankruptcies.

Job cuts announced by U.S. companies jump 54% in July: report
Quote
U.S. employers announced another 262,649 job cuts in July as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to weigh on demand, the latest indication that the labor market recovery is losing steam.

“The downturn is far from over, especially as COVID cases rise around the country,” said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray. “Consumers are buying fewer goods and services, businesses are closing, and bankruptcies are rising.”.

Several retailers including J.C. Penney and Lord & Taylor have filed for bankruptcy since March. Job cuts remained concentrated at bars, restaurants, hotels and amusement parks. The automotive sector cut 83,853 jobs.

“It is clear that many job losses are now permanent, and it will be challenging for many workers to find new jobs and feel safe taking jobs that are public-facing,” said Challenger.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-employment-idUSKCN2521N5

24
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 08, 2020, 06:08:39 PM »
—— Starship ——
Quote
Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) 8/7/20, 3:10 PM
Watch Live: Starship SN5 is about to be lifted onto a stand
#https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZF9SxZwZJo
[ 1hr47. Crane lifts just enough to put “pipe stands” underneath to take the weight off the legs, so they can be retracted. 
Screencap below. Short clip in NSF tweet below ⬇️]
https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1291813932814884864


< I think [Starship legs] may have had something like a crush core. This is a screen cap from @NASASpaceflight following the hop.
https://twitter.com/fly_me_2_mars/status/1291842484822138881
Image below.


Quote
Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) 8/7/20, 4:35 PM
Humans for scale!

https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1291835348209803264
20 sec NSF Live clip: humans at base of Starship SN5

[ Photo below of human & Falcon 9 for comparison.]

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/7/20, 4:58 PM
[Starship with SuperHeavy booster] will look crazy tall with booster & fairing at 122m / 394 ft
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1291841121669091330

From SpaceX.com:
Diameter:  9m/30ft
Height: 120m/394ft (SS+SH)
SS alone: 50m/160ft
SH: 70m/230ft   6 legs

Prototypes like SN5:
Diameter:  9m/30 feet
Around 30m/98 ft tall without booster or fairing

25
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 08, 2020, 05:44:40 PM »
Elon Musk gives SpaceX employees a day off after historic week
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/elon-musk-gives-spacex-employees-a-day-off-after-historic-week.html

—- Starlink
Quote
Michael Sheetz (@thesheetztweetz) 8/7/20, 6:27 PM
SpaceX told the FCC in a late July presentation that the company’s Starlink unit is “now building 120 satellites per month” and has “invested over $70 million developing and producing thousands of consumer user terminals per month.”
https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1291863550504443905
Info slide below.

—- SpaceX and ULA win military launch competition worth $653 million -- and that's just the start
Quote
New York(CNN Business) Elon Musk's SpaceX and Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture United Launch Alliance are the big winners in a stiff competition to secure military launch contracts, teeing up the companies to dominate the lucrative market for launching US national security satellites for years to come.

The initial awards will give $316 million to SpaceX for one launch and $337 million to ULA for two launches. But the total value of the deal could be worth far more, as the military will ask one or the other company to launch additional missions.

SpaceX is expected to handle 40% of all national security satellites slated to go up over the next five to seven years, while ULA will handle the other 60%. Military officials did not say exactly how many launches that might enetail, nor did they provide a total contract value. …
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/07/tech/spacex-ula-military-national-security-contract-scn/index.html


—- The First planetary defense mission:  smash a smallish, 500kg spacecraft into a small asteroid, and see what happens.
NASA awards DART launch contract to SpaceX
April 11, 2019
Quote
SpaceX will launch a NASA mission to test an asteroid deflection technique at a significantly lower price than past agency contracts won by the company.

NASA said April 11 it awarded SpaceX a contract to launch the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) on a Falcon 9 in June 2021 from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. The total cost to NASA for the mission, including the launch and related services, is $69 million.

DART is a mission under development at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory as part of NASA’s planetary defense program. The spacecraft will use an electric propulsion system to travel to the asteroid Didymos. DART will collide with a small moon orbiting Didymos, sometimes nicknamed Didymoon, at a speed of six kilometers per second.

Astronomers will measure the change in the moon’s orbit around Didymos as a result of the impact to measure how well the energy of the impact was transferred to the moon. That will help scientists gauge the effectiveness of the “kinetic impactor” approach proposed as one means of deflecting an asteroid on a collision course with the Earth.

DART originally planned to launch as a rideshare on the commercial launch of a geostationary orbit satellite. The mission switched several months ago to a dedicated launch. NASA did not disclose if DART, which weighs about 500 kilograms, will share the launch vehicle with another spacecraft. …
https://spacenews.com/nasa-awards-dart-launch-contract-to-spacex/
Image below.

Quote
SpaceX Falcon 9 : NASA DART : July 2021
NASA LAUNCH SERVICES II - SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES. THIS IS A BILATERAL MODIFICATION TO REVISE THE DOUBLE ASTEROID REDIRECTION TEST (DART) LAUNCH DATE WINDOW, AUTHORIZE SPACEX TO USE A PREVIOUSLY-FLOWN FIRST STAGE BOOSTER, AND INCORPORATE TERMS FOR ACCEPTANCE OF PREVIOUSLY FLOWN HARDWARE.
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=47871.40

DART - The First Planetary Defense Mission - YouTube
13 min.  Good explainer.



=====
Quote
South Korea mulls exiting its own launch program. South Korean defense industry analysts say the nation would have difficulty competing with other countries in the launch industry, which can provide more advanced technologies and services at lower prices with their already established space-industry infrastructure. "Even if South Korea develops its own rockets, they would not be able to excel more than aerospace giants like SpaceX in terms of technology," said Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, in The Korea Times.

Ten times the cost ... The country's space institute, KARI, has developed several small-satellite rockets, but these are not competitive with SpaceX's Falcon 9, which recently launched South Korea's first military communications satellite, ANASIS-II. "The costs spent by the South Korean government to develop the two rockets were 10 times higher than those spent by SpaceX," Kim Seung-jo, former president of KARI, said. "But the South Korean government's outcomes in its rocket projects were far behind the Falcon 9 rocket produced by SpaceX."
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/08/rocket-report-virgin-galactic-delays-commercial-flights-electron-beefs-up/

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: August 08, 2020, 04:55:29 PM »
Likely they wore the mask until seated on the plane, then removed it.

Aug 1: 
Delta flight returns to gate after two travelers refuse to wear masks
https://twitter.com/AnaCabrera/status/1289703721362845696
"Delta statement to CNN: “Flight 1227 from Detroit to Atlanta returned to the gate following two customers who were non-compliant with crew instructions. After a short delay, the aircraft departed to Atlanta.” The two passengers were removed from the plane, a spokesperson said."
< Bravo to Delta!! Apparently those 2 passengers took off their shoes at TSA and gave up their luggage to have it scanned without it being a violation of their body or constitutional rights or whatever they rationalize it with.

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 08, 2020, 04:47:26 PM »
Electric car power accepted as payment for parking in Japan
Quote
Nissan Leaf drivers in Japan can now pay for parking with electricity from their vehicle.
The proof-of-concept experiment, at Nissan’s Pavilion exhibition space in Yokohama, allows EV owners to pay for their stay by feeding battery power back into a localised grid.
The Pavilion opened on August 1, 2020, and will run until October 23. It is an arena for the Japanese manufacture to show off new technologies.
“The Pavilion is a place where customers can see, feel, and be inspired by our near-future vision for society and mobility,” said Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida.
“As the world shifts to electric mobility, EVs will be integrated into society in ways that go beyond just transportation.”
Practical implementation of the displayed energy storage and sharing systems is still in its early stages, however Nissan has reportedly entered into agreements with local governments to use their vehicles as mobile battery units during natural disasters.
The Nissan Leaf was launched globally in 2010.  It is priced in Australia from $49,990 (plus on road costs).
https://www.caradvice.com.au/870712/electric-car-power-accepted-as-payment-for-parking-in-japan/

——
Audi lowers the E-Tron SUV's starting price by $9,000 for 2021
And introduces a new Sportback model.
https://www.engadget.com/audi-e-tron-suv-price-092328684.html

—-
Used Teslas sell very fast compared to other models, data confirms
August 7, 2020
Quote
As overall demand for used cars slows due to the coronavirus pandemic, used Teslas are selling faster than other electric cars.
According to new analysis from iSeeCars.com, the Tesla Model 3, Model X, and Model S were the top three fastest-selling electric cars, while the Model 3 was the fastest-selling used car overall—including both electric and internal-combustion models.

That's based on analysis of vehicles from model years 2015 through 2019 listed on that website, which used two datasets for this analysis. One from November 2019 to February 2020 represent pre-coronavirus sales trends, and another from March 2020 to June 2020 gave a tally of sales during the pandemic.
The sales trend is in part a classic case of supply and demand.
"The Tesla Model 3, which was the automaker's least-expensive vehicle, had the highest number of preorders of any car ever produced, and the long wait time helped further drive the high demand for the vehicle which has been sustained in the secondary marketplace," …
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1129139_used-teslas-sell-very-fast-compared-to-other-models-data-confirms

—-
Should I Buy An Electric Car Or Hybrid Now?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherelliott/2020/08/07/should-i-buy-an-electric-car-or-hybrid-now/#3852f1434c62
Not much new here for regular readers of this thread, but it’s a good reflection of where the public is now.  Includes several personal stories and their reasoning.

====
Quote
Automotive News (@Automotive_News) 8/6/20, 2:21 PM
FCA likely to recall 1M vehicles in U.S. for excess tailpipe emissions 
https://twitter.com/automotive_news/status/1291439167512043520

——
Ford CEO surprises everyone by retiring after just three years
Ford just got its fourth CEO in six years.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/08/ford-ceo-jim-hackett-retires-after-just-3-years-and-a-40-stock-slide/

28
Coronavirus hastens Big Oil's Atlantic divide on climate change
Quote
The big picture: Economic shutdowns around the world in response to the coronavirus choked off oil demand at a time when the industry was already awash in too much of the fuel and struggling financially. Now, the world may be changing in permanent ways that tilt society away from what has been a steadily growing demand for oil despite rising concerns about its impact on the planet.

“The coronavirus crisis has, all of a sudden, accelerated at least the potential that oil demand will plateau,” said Martijn Rats, global oil strategist at Morgan Stanley.

Persistently low oil prices are making other sources more intriguing investments. “The profitability of investing in renewables versus oil and gas is an awful lot closer now.”

How it works: Europe’s more progressive governments and investors are major reasons why its oil companies are looking to evolve compared to their U.S. counterparts.

“If you’re a European company, you’re looking at much more aggressive government policies,” said Yergin, a Pulitzer Prize-winning author who is about to publish another book — "The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations" — next month. ...
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-big-oil-us-europe-climate-change-5c81df43-951d-442a-9881-062bcef65ee5.html

29
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: August 08, 2020, 03:52:01 PM »
Andrew Freedman on Twitter: "[THREAD] Why the new NOAA hurricane seasonal outlook is so dire.
Note: We've already had a record 9 named storms so far. Typically, the ninth-named storm forms in early Oct. It's early August. After the 21st named storm, we go into the Greek alphabet.
[WaPo article at the link.]
https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/1291420697533661184
"Sea surface temperatures in tropical Atlantic, along East Coast, and in Caribbean are well above avg. (in some cases record warm). That's fuel ready and waiting for storms to tap into. 2/
“A developing La Nina event in the tropical Pacific may lead to reduced wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, making it a more favorable environment for tropical storms and hurricanes. 3/
"An unusually active West African Monsoon season is bringing more thunderstorms off the west coast of Africa, which can then organize into tropical cyclones. 4/
"Weaker than average Atlantic trade winds favor more storm development. 5/
"We're in an "active" phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which favors more active hurricane seasons. This cycle began in 1995. 6/
"Climate change is driving ocean temperatures up, and leading to wetter, more intense hurricanes. It's also increasing the chances for storms to rapidly intensify. But it's not leading to more storms overall, based on studies to date. 7/
"Lastly, and NOAA didn't mention this, but, it's 2020. So..."

30
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 07, 2020, 03:32:24 PM »
—— Starlink’s tenth mission
Quote
—-
SpaceX (@SpaceX) 8/7/20, 1:13 AM
Liftoff!
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1291603226303766528
20 sec webcast clip

SpaceX (@SpaceX) 8/7/20, 1:21 AM
Falcon 9’s first stage has landed on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1291605444809523200
20 sec webcast clip

SpaceX (@SpaceX) 8/7/20, 2:21 AM
Both BlackSky satellites have been deployed
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1291620343249920000

SpaceX (@SpaceX) 8/7/20, 2:47 AM
Deployment of 57 Starlink satellites confirmed
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1291626962411126784
30 sec clip from webcast

—-
SpaceX (@SpaceX) 8/7/20, 12:58 AM
Watch Falcon 9 launch SpaceX’s tenth Starlink mission → spacex.com/launches
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1291599538977779714
And the Twitter Broadcast replay is in the tweet.

SpaceX launches tenth Starlink mission, nails booster’s fifth landing
By Eric Ralph August 6, 2020 
Quote
While Starlink-9 was originally scheduled to launch as early as June 23rd, Principal Integration Engineer John Insprucker – a familiar fixture and voice on SpaceX webcasts – was quick to note that through the more than six subsequent weeks of delays, “Falcon 9 has been trouble-free.” He also partially answered the main question on everyone’s mind, noting that all of those delays could be traced back to bad weather and issues with the mission’s payloads.

Notably, the next two non-Starlink launches currently on SpaceX’s manifest are SAOCOM 1B – the first polar orbit launch from the East Coast in half a century – and Crew-1 – Crew Dragon’s first operational astronaut launch. Scheduled no earlier than late-August and late-September, respectively, both major customer missions are likely to be punctuated by several Starlink launches over the next two months. With Starlink-9 complete, SpaceX could be just 4-5 missions away from rolling out Starlink internet service according to a comment from COO/President Gwynne Shotwell that service could begin after the 14th Starlink launch. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-tenth-starlink-launch-fifth-booster-landing/

31
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 06, 2020, 10:13:38 PM »
—— Tonight!
Quote
SpaceX (@SpaceX) 8/6/20, 12:28 PM
Targeting Friday, August 7 at 1:12 a.m. EDT [0512 GMT ] for Falcon 9’s launch of 57 Starlink satellites and 2 spacecraft from @spaceflight’s customer BlackSky spacex.com/launches
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1291410868563873792
Quote
SpaceX (@SpaceX) 8/6/20, 12:30 PM
Falcon 9’s first stage booster supporting this mission previously launched two Starlink missions, Crew Demo-1, and the RADARSAT Constellation Mission
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1291411255547240448
Four launch photos at the link.

===========

—— More on this:
—— No operational Boeing Starliner Crew flights expected before 2022. :o
Quote
Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) 8/5/20, 9:07 PM
Commercial Crew notional dates:
- SpaceX Crew 1 - NET 9/27/20
- OFT-2 - 11/18/20 (Under review)
- SpaceX Crew 2 - 3/30/21
- CFT - 4/21
- SpaceX Crew 3 - 8/12/21
- SpaceX Crew 4 - 2/4/22

- Boeing Crew 1 - 2/24/22
- Boeing Crew 2 - 4/21/22
- Boeing Crew 3 - 12/14/22
Via NASA SMSR
https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1291179132676722689
...

Quote
Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) 8/5/20, 9:09 PM
Schedule planning seems to represent the earliest that each mission could be ready and needed, as launching two Commercial Crew missions in February 2022, seems unlikely to happen, for instance. Will likely end being only one of those.
https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1291179455214493699

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 06, 2020, 06:06:52 PM »
Nikola’s Q2 earnings call this week mostly consisted of them reading the SEC filing.  They refused to give a number of Badger reservations, and still have not contracted with an OEM to build it. 

https://sec.report/Document/0001731289-20-000009/

They also revealed that each hydrogen station will take 18 months to build, and no production is expected this year.
Quote
ALEX  (@ajtourville) 8/5/20, 1:36 PM
6/9
Nikola signed the contract with Anheuser-Busch in February 2018 which stipulates Nikola must provide hydrogen trucks & hydrogen fueling stations for each of the 13 AB locations in the Network by December 31, 2021.
https://twitter.com/ajtourville/status/1291065625666781186
~ 7/9
30 months after signing the Anheuser-Busch contract, Trevor Milton says Nikola hasn't even determined the location of the first 2 hydrogen stations & that it will take Nikola 18 months to assemble each Nel plug & play station!
~ 8/9
Not to mention Nikola only began the beta engineering of its hydrogen truck in Q1-2020 & that it isn't even scheduled to go into production until 2023!

The “factory” in Ulm, Germany where the BEV Nikola Tre is to be made is a small warehouse with no assembly equipment visible in the SEC photos.  (One photo shows a long-abandoned, empty space.)   The “Business Outlook” section of the filing is exactly three lines, saying only that they plan to begin “testing” (of some sort) in 2021 before proceeding to “low volume production” of the Nikola Tre (no time frame given).

Quote
Nikola Tesla’s Ghost  (@Nikola_Truth) 8/4/20, 4:37 PM
So what was once ‘12 months’ and became ‘mid to late next year’ is actually at best late next year.
Even then, that’s probably still optimistic.
https://twitter.com/nikola_truth/status/1290748626902421505

The only Q2 revenue in the filing is $36,000 (reported as “$0.04 million”) which Trevor Milton paid the company to install solar panels on his house in Utah.
< $0.04 million is the cutest way I’ve ever seen to say $40,000  This year, they also built 0.0 million vehicles.

"Is this all we get?" Paul Coster of JPMorgan asked. Jeff Osborne, an analyst at Cowen, said Nikola's rollout timeline is "a bit confusing."
Tesla competitor Nikola sinks 17% after debut earnings report misses forecasts and analyst call turns contentious
https://www.businessinsider.com/nikola-stock-price-q2-earnings-miss-loss-estimates-analyst-call-2020-8

Why Nikola Stock Fell Sharply After Earnings
Quote
Investors would have been delighted to hear that Nikola has a manufacturing partner for its electric Badger pickup -- but no news was forthcoming on Tuesday.

Nikola's stock is down because the company missed a different set of expectations. As Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner said in a note on Monday, before Nikola reported, investors were expecting news on any of several fronts.

News of (for instance) new fleet customers for Nikola's upcoming battery-electric semi, an announcement of a commercial partner for its hydrogen refueling network, or a manufacturing partner for its Badger pickup truck could have pushed the stock significantly higher. …
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/08/05/why-nikola-stock-fell-sharply-after-earnings.aspx

33
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 06, 2020, 04:54:46 PM »
SpaceX (@SpaceX) 8/5/20, 6:09 PM
Starship liftoff and landing photos → flickr.com/spacex
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1291134383559069696
Photos below.

—-
Remembering Starhopper - 150 m Hop 6 Month Anniversary
Quote
Published on Feb 27, 2020
6 months ago, Starhopper successfully completed a 150 meter hop, marking a significant step toward making Humans a multi-planetary species and the second flight of a Full Flow Staged Combustion rocket engine (the first being Starhopper’s 20 meter hop). Relive the glory days with this video, including never before posted footage of the Abort Flamethrower, both 20 and 150 meter hops + more.
6 min




—- Starlink 9/ BlackSky Global
Quote
Gavin - SpaceXFleet.com (@SpaceXFleet) 8/5/20, 7:02 PM
OCISLY has arrived at the Starlink landing zone! The droneship is ~634 km downrange.
Ms. Tree and Ms. Chief are nearing the fairing recovery area, ~695 km downrange.
Launch NET Aug 7th at 01:12 EDT.
https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1291147689162350592
Marine tracking map below.

Aug. 7:  Falcon 9 • Starlink 9/BlackSky Global
Launch time: 0512 GMT (1:12 a.m. EDT)
Launch site: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida
Quote
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to launch the tenth batch of approximately 60 satellites for SpaceX’s Starlink broadband network, a mission designated Starlink 9. Two Earth observation microsatellites for BlackSky Global, a Seattle-based company, will launch as rideshare payloads on this mission. Moved forward from June 24. Delayed from June 23, June 25 and June 26. Scrubbed on July 8 due to poor weather. Scrubbed on July 11 due to technical issue. Delayed from July 29, July 31, Aug. 1 and Aug. 6. [updated Aug. 4]

34
Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: August 06, 2020, 02:59:46 PM »
Las Vegas tunnel project clears last major hurdle for expansion
Aug 5 2020
Quote
On Wednesday, county officials unanimously approved designs for two additional tunnels connecting hotels with the Las Vegas Convention Center, clearing the way for Musk’s Boring Co. to expand its first commercial underground transportation system.

Approval form the Clark County commission is one of the last hurdles to a proposed expansion of a Boring Co. project burrowing underneath the convention center, which was largely finished in May but has yet to open for rides. One of the hotels connecting to the Loop, Resorts World, said it expects construction on the expansion to begin by the end of this year, Scott Sibella, president of Resorts World Las Vegas, said in an emailed statement.

In May, Musk tweeted that Boring Co. would “also connect Vegas hotels & airport.” Airport officials have held introductory conversations with the Boring Co. in recent weeks, according to Chris Jones, a spokesman for McCarran International Airport.

With the coronavirus pandemic curbing travel, including to Las Vegas, Boring Co. and its hotel partners may benefit from some extra time to get their projects ready. Boring Co. has said it’s on track to finish the Vegas convention center Loop by January, in time for the massive Consumer Electronics Show, though conference organizers said last week that the event will be held exclusively online. A Boring Co. Loop to Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles is still mired in the city’s environmental review process and missed a deadline for opening this year that had been set by the baseball team’s financial chief. ...
https://fortune.com/2020/08/05/elon-musk-las-vegas-tunnel-project-expansion/

35
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 06, 2020, 03:36:52 AM »
—- Starship SN5 hop
Quote
Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) 8/4/20, 8:04 PM
Just so we're clear, SpaceX built a Mars rocket out of rolls of steel, in tents, in South Texas, in weeks. And the first time they flew it, it made a smooth launch, a controlled flight, and safely landed. This is truly remarkable.
https://twitter.com/sciguyspace/status/1290800794028187648
Eric Berger: Mars is still long freaking way away. So very far. But the first step is low-cost, frequent access to space for tons of stuff. This is the first step toward that first step. And it's a big one.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/4/20, 8:29 PM
Exactly
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1290807173258203136

SpaceX Starship leaps towards Mars with picture-perfect hop debut
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-starship-sn5-hop-debut-success-mars/


—- Demo-2 splashdown videos
Quote
Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) 8/5/20, 5:44 PM
 
NASA has released some gorgeous 4K footage of Dragon Endeavour splashdown and recovery ops following the successful conclusion to Demo-2.
...
https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1291127972573872131
4k links and some clips at this link.⬆️


—— No operational Boeing Starliner Crew flights expected before 2022. :o
Quote
Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) 8/5/20, 9:07 PM
Commercial Crew notional dates:
- SpaceX Crew 1 - NET 9/27/20
- OFT-2 - 11/18/20 (Under review)
- SpaceX Crew 2 - 3/30/21
- CFT - 4/21
- SpaceX Crew 3 - 8/12/21
- SpaceX Crew 4 - 2/4/22

- Boeing Crew 1 - 2/24/22
- Boeing Crew 2 - 4/21/22
- Boeing Crew 3 - 12/14/22
Via NASA SMSR
https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1291179132676722689


—- Falcon 9 mission contracts signed
SpaceX, ULA to launch C-band satellites for SES
Quote
Commercial satellite operator SES has selected SpaceX and United Launch Alliance to each launch two geostationary satellites designed to replace C-band capacity in the United States that the Federal Communications Commission is repurposing for 5G cellular networks.
https://spacenews.com/spacex-ula-to-launch-c-band-satellites-for-ses/

PredaSAR may launch 48 satellites with SpaceX, exec says
August 4, 2020
Quote
“We agreed to do one and we will negotiate the rest later,” Bell said. “We would like to work with SpaceX on the rest of them, and I’m sure we’ll come to an agreement in the near future.”
https://spacenews.com/predasar-may-launch-48-satellites-with-spacex-exec-says/

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 05, 2020, 07:56:07 PM »
Global Plug-In Electric Car Sales June 2020: Model 3 Leads, Model Y In 14th YTD
The top three models in June were:
   •   Tesla Model 3 - 35,854 (#1 YTD: 142,346)
   •   Renault ZOE - 10,553 (#2 YTD: 37,154)
   •   Tesla Model Y - about 7,500 (#14 YTD: 13,415)
https://insideevs.com/news/436920/global-plugin-car-sales-june-2020/amp/
Graph below.


—- The Honda “e” city car
Honda Electric Car Is Range And Price Challenged, But Technology, Quality Are Plusses
Quote
Cars like the Renault Zoe (240 miles) and the Peugeot 208 e (220 miles) are priced very close to the Honda e but are bigger, and have this huge almost double advantage in range. Honda counters with the argument that the interior quality of the “e” is in a higher class, and the technology offered is also worth paying for. Honda says that for most daily commuters, the range of 125 miles would be more than adequate, while its fast charging is top class. Honda says it can be 80% recharged in 30 minutes.

Honda has no current plan to sell the car in the U.S.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2020/07/26/honda-electric-car-is-range-and-price-challenged-but-technology-quality-are-plusses/amp/

37
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 05, 2020, 01:37:29 PM »
—— Starship SN5 first hop video from SpaceX
Quote
SpaceX (@SpaceX) 8/4/20, 11:37 PM
Starship takes flight
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1290854457136181248
At the link: 1-minute drone & interior view, with control room audio.


—- This South Padre Island Starship cam view vividly illustrates the rocket’s pitch changes during the flight.
Quote
Spaceflight Now (@SpaceflightNow) 8/4/20, 9:31 PM
A full-scale prototype of the huge Starship vehicle SpaceX says will fly people to the moon and Mars flew for the first time Tuesday in South Texas.
“Mars is looking real … Progress is accelerating,” says @elonmusk.
Video: @SpacePadreIsle
FULL STORY: [link below]
https://twitter.com/spaceflightnow/status/1290822667352838144
Hop video at the link.

SpaceX clears big hurdle on next-gen Starship rocket program
https://spaceflightnow.com/2020/08/05/spacex-clears-big-hurdle-on-next-gen-starship-rocket-program/


—— NSF’s edited video. 10 minutes.
Quote
Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) 8/5/20, 12:44 AM
Under the roar of Raptor, Starship SN5 took flight during a successful 150m test hop at Boca Chica.

Mary (@BocaChicaGal) had several cameras filming this historic event, with editing by Jack Beyer (@thejackbeyer)
https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1290871349637009408


 

 

38
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 05, 2020, 04:39:36 AM »
Starship’s landing legs are hidden under the bottom “skirt,” and thus are not easily visible while on the launch mount, but they extend for landing.
...


Quote
Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) 8/4/20, 10:03 PM
Sounds like the plan is now to get more experience with the launch process. Makes sense, given that a lot of the ground support equipment and systems on the vehicle are new. Perhaps, SN6 will get to fly to 150 meters too!
https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1290830777781899266

  —-
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/4/20, 9:17 PM
V1.1 legs will be ~60% longer. V2.0 legs will be much wider & taller — like Falcon, but capable of landing on unimproved surfaces & auto-leveling.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1290819191835164672

< What's next, Elon? 20km hop?
Elon Musk:We’ll do several short hops to smooth out launch process, then go high altitude with body flaps

< when will you do a hop and a relight? i.e. - land and take off again?
Elon Musk: Soon

—-
Quote
< Road to Mars
https://twitter.com/flcnhvy/status/1290800650033475585
Photo below: SN5, Starhopper. 

Elon Musk:
Progress is accelerating
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1290817143785783296

39
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 05, 2020, 03:21:06 AM »
The Raptor is a full-flow staged combustion cycle rocket engine — a very efficient but very complex engine that has rarely been attempted before.  This is only the second time one has (intentionally ;) ) flown. 
SpaceX’s ‘Starhopper’ was the first.

Is SpaceX's Raptor engine the king of rocket engines?
https://everydayastronaut.com/raptor-engine/
Article and video.

40
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 05, 2020, 02:57:18 AM »
Starship’s landing legs are hidden under the bottom “skirt,” and thus are not easily visible while on the launch mount, but they extend for landing.

Quote
Trevor Mahlmann (@TrevorMahlmann) 8/4/20, 8:44 PM
Leg deploy

 photos.tmahlmann.com/Rockets/SpaceX…

support me on patreon and help me get to more tests like this: patreon.com/trevormahlmann 
https://twitter.com/trevormahlmann/status/1290810985998057473
Photo below.

41
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 05, 2020, 02:41:08 AM »
The single Raptor engine in SN5 is mounted off-center, because future prototypes will have 3 Raptors in a triangular configuration, per Elon Musk.  That is why the rocket does a “power slide” off the launch mount and the engine does not thrust straight down.  SN5 also rolled (rotated) approximately 90° during its flight, testing the ‘steering’ thrusters.

Quote
Trevor Mahlmann (@TrevorMahlmann) 8/4/20, 8:20 PM
There for 20m.
There for 120m.
Here for 150 m.

With certainty, I can say, offset thrust is the best thrust.

full-resolution download: tmahlmann.com/photos/Rockets…
https://twitter.com/trevormahlmann/status/1290804812829818885
Photo below.

42
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 05, 2020, 02:26:16 AM »
STARSHIP SN5 FLIES!
➡️ 90 second video of the flight at the link.  Screencap below.

Quote
Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) 8/4/20, 7:59 PM
LAUNCH! Starship SN5 has launched on a 150 meter test hop at SpaceX Boca Chica.
Under the power of Raptor SN27, SN5 has conducted what looks like a successful flight!
Listen to the SpaceXers cheer!
Mary (@BocaChicaGal) filming history!

https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1290799617882431488

~ To the uninitiated and casual followers. IN THE LAST TWO DAYS SpaceX concluded the mission that returned US domestic crew launch and return capability, then test hopped a prototype rocket that is destined to be the first vehicle to land humans on Mars.

THAT'S why we're excited!

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 04, 2020, 08:07:14 PM »
Looking Back on a Revolution: Tesla Model 3 Turns Three
Jul 29, 2020
Quote
Tesla's Master Plan
In 2006, Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted Tesla's secret master plan online for the world to see.

Quote
"So, in short, the master plan is:
Build sports car
Use that money to build an affordable car
Use that money to build an even more affordable car
While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options"

2008: Tesla delivered the first Tesla Roadster. Check.
2012: Tesla delivered the first Model S. Check.
2016: Tesla acquired Solar City. Check.
2017: Tesla delivered the first Model 3. Check.

Project BlueStar
On July 28, 2017—three years ago today—Tesla's decade-long master plan came to fruition when Tesla handed over the first BlueStar, now known as Model 3, vehicles to customers. The goal for BlueStar was clear from the start: drive volume.

"With BlueStar, we're looking at cost and lowering the overall expense to the user. If it's not cost-competitive (with oil), you are going to have a hard time scaling to a high level." - Tesla co-founder JB Straubel to CNET, 2008

While scaling to a high level has not been without challenges, the Model 3 has cemented its revolutionary status by quickly becoming the best-selling electric vehicle in history despite 5-10 year head starts from runners-up.

But it's not just other EVs that the Model 3 has overthrown. In the United States, the Model 3 has outsold competing premium internal combustion engine sedans: the Mercedes C-Class, BMW 3 Series, Audi A4 and S4, Lexus IS, and Jaguar XE. Combined. ...
https://www.thestreet.com/tesla/articles/looking-back-on-a-revolution-tesla-model-3-turns-three


—- China quality study
Quote
Ray4️⃣Tesla (@ray4tesla) 8/2/20, 12:57 PM
JUST IN: CheZhiWang, Automobile quality complaint data collecting site in China , finds in Q2, Model 3 is the least complained car w/ 0.7 complaint/10k cars, topping all 37 other models foreign or domestic. This is the 1st time Model 3 ranks top spot in the findings.
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1289968526640287746
~ BYD Qin (PHEV) ranks 4th to the last with 33.3 complaints per every 10k vehicles.
~ Chinese brand Aion S is the only pure EV brand other than Model 3 on the list I can find. It ranks the 8th with 8.1 complaints per every 10k vehicles.
  [ List (mostly in Chinese) at the link.]

44
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 04, 2020, 02:59:14 PM »
—— Demo-2 splashdown footage
Quote
SpaceX (@SpaceX) 8/3/20, 10:44 PM
Tracking footage of Crew Dragon’s descent, parachute deployments and splashdown
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1290478601804996609
1:16 vid, no audio, at the link.

—-  preps for next Starlink launch
Quote
Gavin - SpaceXFleet.com (@SpaceXFleet) 8/3/20, 6:05 PM
Of Course I Still Love You droneship is about to depart for the Starlink V1 L9 mission.
This will be the fourth time that tugboat Finn Falgout has towed the droneship out for this mission...
Destination: "Back to the LZ"
https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1290408353781489669
Marine tracker map at the link.

Gavin - SpaceXFleet.com (@SpaceXFleet) 8/3/20, 6:13 PM

Departure!!
Of Course I Still Love You droneship is en-route to the Starlink LZ. Launch NET August 6th.
Photo captured via the WKMG ClickOrlando Canaveral Webcam.
https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1290410588095602698
Photo of OCISLY & tug leaving port at the link.

EDIT:
Quote
Julia (@julia_bergeron) 8/4/20, 3:53 AM
OCISLY still has quite a way to go to make it to the Starlink landing zone. I am now seeing the Starlink 10th mission launch scheduled for Aug. 7th at 1:12 am EDT from LC 39A. That would line up with when the fleet would be ready for recovery.
#SpaceXFleet
https://twitter.com/julia_bergeron/status/1290556483441250304


—— GO Navigator update
Quote
Kyle Montgomery (@Kyle_M_Photo) 8/3/20, 2:00 PM
GO Navigator is still docked in Pensacola. Looks like they craned something onto(or possibly off) GO Navigator, I'm guessing it's a new backup generator. #SpaceXFleet #SpaceX
https://twitter.com/kyle_m_photo/status/1290346854719291393
Photos at the link.
< Better late than never! Naughty generator. ;)
 
Kyle Montgomery (@Kyle_M_Photo) 8/3/20, 2:09 PM

Looks like the believed to be generator is now strapped down the helipad
https://twitter.com/kyle_m_photo/status/1290349133174386688
Another photo 


—- Starship SN5 hop attempt aborted yesterday, will try again today
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/3/20, 7:23 PM
 I’m in the Boca control room. Hop attempt in ~33 minutes.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1290427983727964160

Some comments submitted to the live video:
< Thank you for televising the revolution.
< Elon is there!  In the control room via Twitter.
< My mom asked why I am watching a bunch of tanks. ;D

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 8/3/20, 8:44 PM
Scrubbed for the day. A Raptor turbopump spin start valve didn’t open, triggering an automatic abort. We’ll figure out why & retry tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1290448540821594114  

Quote
Brady Kenniston (@TheFavoritist) 8/3/20, 11:37 PM
Starship SN5's first hop attempt was ended before it began. A turbopump spin start valve failed to open, ending the test prematurely. Mary provides gorgeous views as Starship is tanked, spun up and detanked.
Video from Mary (@BocaChicaGal)
 ➡️ https://t.co/x5bnugptev

https://twitter.com/thefavoritist/status/1290492150547791872

Watch at the NASAspaceflight youtube channel:  https://m.youtube.com/c/NASASpaceflightVideos/videos

45
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:54:31 PM »
—— Crew Dragon Demo-2
Quote
Mary (@BocaChicaGal) 8/2/20, 2:20 PM 
It appears that the satellite tracking antennas at Boca Chica are tracking Crew Dragon. 
https://twitter.com/bocachicagal/status/1289989570126180352
Antenna photo below.

——
Quote
Christian Davenport (@wapodavenport) 8/2/20, 7:47 PM
"Five hours ago we were bobbing around in a spacecraft making prank satellite phone calls to whoever we could get ahold of," Doug Hurley said, in one of the best post-landing quotes ever.
https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status/1290071632531189760

Anthony Vareha (@Enterprise_Flt) 8/2/20, 10:17 PM
I recieved one of these calls at the flight director console. It started with an opening line like "Hi it's Doug and Bob and we're in the ocean." I think my response was "Yeah, I can see that."
~ After the call ended, my witty Capcom Megan Levins suggested that my response SHOULD have been "oh crap, was splashdown supposed to be TODAY?"
<  Considering they’d said they expected to spend the time between splashdown and recovery barfing, this was a way better use of time.

——
Quote
Shane Kimbrough (@astro_kimbrough) 8/2/20, 10:00 PM
Amazing, historic day today as our @SpaceX @NASA Guice Offshore and Air Center teams recovered the first crewed dragon with our astronauts onboard the DM-2 mission. I was honored to be part of the team today. #nasa #crewdragon #SpaceX
https://twitter.com/astro_kimbrough/status/1290105319729672192
Dragonship Endeavor aboard GO Navigator photo below. Shane is a member of Crew-2.

——
Quote
TomCross (@_TomCross_) 8/2/20, 8:25 PM
A monumental achievement for this group of people on the Dragon team.

I think I speak for everyone in saying that we will all remember what part of the vehicle we designed, fabricated and assembled to make Demo-2 a success. Together @SpaceX we did what some thought impossible. 
https://twitter.com/_tomcross_/status/1290081264590925827
Photo at link:  Pre-Covid, a huge SpaceX crowd is joyous in front of the Dragon

—-
How we were coming into 2020 vs how we feel now #SplashDown
https://twitter.com/krisjennerlol/status/1290068611407568896
Dragon/Astronaut photo below.


—-  next Starlink launch?
Quote
Emre Kelly (@EmreKelly) 8/3/20, 8:51 AM
 
Space news! It doesn’t stop. Hazard area issued for Thursday, Aug. 6 launch of tenth Starlink mission from pad 39A. Targeting ~0130 ET, but stay tuned for exact time confirmation from SpaceX.

Dear boats: don’t even think about it.
  https://twitter.com/emrekelly/status/1290269158089711618
Map at the link.

46
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 03, 2020, 03:40:34 AM »
Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) 8/2/20, 9:25 PM
Bob and Doug inside of Dragon Endeavour shortly after hatch opening. #SpaceX #Demo2
https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1290096314588381184

Michael Baylor (@nextspaceflight) 8/2/20, 9:26 PM
Some more good ones from NASA's very talented photographer, Bill Ingalls.
Full album: flickr.com/photos/nasahqp…
https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1290096783012454401

47
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 03, 2020, 02:50:45 AM »
US Coast Guard statement
Quote
Miles Doran (@MilesDoran) 8/2/20, 8:29 PM
.@USCG statement on boaters surrounding @SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule after splashdown: "numerous boaters ignored the Coast Guard crews’ requests and decided to encroach the area, putting themselves and those involved in the operation in potential danger."
https://twitter.com/milesdoran/status/1290082383002087424
Text image below.

48
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 03, 2020, 01:39:24 AM »
Successful autonomous return to earth of the Dragon capsule!  Astronaut egress occurred just over an hour after splashdown, delayed by small concentrations of toxic propellants outside the capsule, discovered after Dragon Endeavor had been brought aboard GO Navigator.  Given the option of exiting earlier, the astronauts radioed that they were fine with waiting, to assure everyone would be safe.

SpaceX lands NASA astronauts in the ocean for the first time in decades
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-nasa-astronaut-splashdown-success/

SpaceX Crew Dragon makes historic 1st splashdown to return NASA astronauts home
https://www.space.com/spacex-crew-dragon-demo-2-splashdown.html

The good weather, low wind and glassy sea made for an easy splashdown — but it also allowed a buildup of the toxic combustible gas (common to returning spacecraft), plus an unhealthy concentration of pleasure boaters surrounding the capsule before it had been safed. Coast Guard vessels had maintained a safe area for splashdown, but Pensacola boaters clearly have a lot to learn.

Quote
Gavin - SpaceXFleet.com (@SpaceXFleet) 8/2/20, 5:05 PM
 
The first question of the press conference addresses all the boats near Dragon.
The Coastguard cleared a 10 nautical mile area prior to splashdown but the boats came in afterward once they saw splashdown. "It's something we need to do better next time."
https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1290030986516783104
< How many @USCG cutters would it require to restrain the boating public's interest and enthusiasm for @NASA @SpaceX ? A lot.
<< I live on the Space Coast. I don’t think that would have happened if the landing was off Cape Canaveral. The people around here know the boundaries when it comes to NASA

Elon Musk and Gwynne Shotwell were front and center at displays in Hawthorne mission control.  After Bob and Doug were safely out, they celebrated the mission success with a little champagne.

49
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 03, 2020, 01:35:26 AM »
So they spend all that money on a rocket, but Elon can't afford a decent camera to show us the debarkation of those astronauts onto the ship?  :-\

They may have cut away on purpose, for privacy and respect in a difficult moment, after the astros  had been in weightlessness for two months.  It’s rare to see much of folks exiting the Soyuz until they are all comfortably out of the capsule and arranged nicely for photographs.


Edit:  they are now broadcasting live on the ground in Texas.  Joking about making prank satellite phone calls from the ISS [Edit: from Dragon, see #766 below :) ] just a few hours ago.
Quote
NASA (@NASA) 8/2/20, 7:39 PM
LIVE NOW: Our #LaunchAmerica astronauts are welcomed home after today's historic splashdown aboard the @SpaceX Dragon Endeavour. @AstroBehnken & @Astro_Doug arrive at Ellington Field in Houston...
https://twitter.com/nasa/status/1290069843174096898 

Another edit:  privacy of the ship’s crew’s identities may have also been a consideration when setting up the video cameras.  The crew was definitely under stress today, dealing with the fuel fumes vs. the requirement to get the hatch open quickly, and some of their... “discussions” looked rather embarrassing.  They did have a photographer at work, so we’ll likely see nice photos later.

50
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: August 02, 2020, 05:39:29 PM »
Quote
Chris G - NSF (@ChrisG_NSF) 8/2/20, 10:04 AM
For today, as I know many are wondering:
1. First and foremost, all attention and good energy to #CrewDragon as it returns for splashdown at 2:48 pm EDT (18:48 UTC).
2. After that, attention can shift to Boca Chica, where #SpaceX is preparing to hop #Starship 150m later today.
https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/1289925090709139456

—-
Quote
NASA (@NASA) 8/2/20, 8:00 AM
Space dads @AstroBehnken and @Astro_Doug woke up aboard @SpaceX’s Dragon Endeavour to hear a message from their sons, awaiting the #LaunchAmerica crew’s arrival back on planet Earth.
https://twitter.com/nasa/status/1289893953945382912
At the link: rather than the usual wake-up music, Doug and Bob were awakened with taped callouts from their kids.

—-
Quote
Chris G - NSF (@ChrisG_NSF) 8/2/20, 9:50 AM
#CrewDragon is committed to splashing down in #Pensacola now today. Dragon passed the last point an hour ago where it could have phased its orbit to align with the backup location in Panama City. So it's Pensacola or waive off to tomorrow now. 1/2
#DM2 #Demo2 #SpaceX #NASA
 https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/1289921622116192258
~ All weather and sea states are ACCEPTABLE for landing. Winds are at 1 mph and seas are "calm" in the Pensacola recovery area. 2/2

——
Quote
Gavin - SpaceXFleet.com (@SpaceXFleet) 8/2/20, 10:21 AM
SpaceX: Unable to get the replacement generator onboard before GO Navigator had to depart.
The recovery ship should arrive at the splashdown site at 17:00 UTC (1pm EDT)
https://twitter.com/spacexfleet/status/1289929284568494080
~ This does not impact the mission at all. This is why they have a redundant generator..

 ——
Chris G - NSF (@ChrisG_NSF) 8/2/20, 10:41 AM
Good reinforcement to all the "looking-for-any-tiny-thing-to-cause-needless-alarm-on-social-media" folks out there that 1 generator is fine. No safety rules are being violated. This is why there is a redundant generator onboard GO Navigator. #CrewDragon #DM2 #Demo2 #SpaceX #NASA
https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/1289934407445307392

NASA (@NASA) 8/2/20, 10:38 AM

GO Navigator is on its way to the splashdown zone off the coast of Florida. Despite being down one generator, the #LaunchAmerica crew's prime recovery ship is well equipped and there is no impact to the timeline.
https://twitter.com/nasa/status/1289933510946557953
Clip: crew notification.

—-
Quote
Chris G - NSF (@ChrisG_NSF)8/2/20, 11:22 AM
The remaining timeline for today:
13:51:54 EDT - Trunk separation
13:56:45 EDT - Deorbit burn
14:36:33 EDT - Entry Interface (re-enters atmosphere)
14:44:13 EDT - Drogue chute deploy
14:45:00 EDT - Main chute deploy
14:48:24 EDT - Splashdown
#CrewDragon #DM2 #Demo2 #SpaceX #NASA
https://twitter.com/chrisg_nsf/status/1289944630738292738


17:51:54 UTC - Trunk separation
17:56:45 UTC - Deorbit burn
18:36:33 UTC - Entry Interface (re-enters atmosphere)
18:44:13 UTC - Drogue chute deploy
18:45:00 UTC - Main chute deploy
18:48:24 UTC - Splashdown


Quote
NASA (@NASA) 8/2/20, 11:09 AM
CRUISE VIEWS: See the @SpaceX recovery ship GO Navigator make its way to the splashdown zone. The hydraulic lift on the bottom right will hoist the Dragon Endeavour carrying @Astro_Doug and @AstroBehnken.
https://twitter.com/nasa/status/1289941441008095232
1 min clip from the webcast.

—-
Quote
Chris B - NSF (@NASASpaceflight) 8/2/20, 9:57 AM
It's the EOM (End Of Mission) Ground Track Screen!
Dragon Endeavour Demo-2 (Left).
https://twitter.com/nasaspaceflight/status/1289923266312724480
Image below; Shuttle Endeavor EOM screen at the link.

——-
Demo-2 to splashdown in Gulf; SpaceX, NASA eye operational Crew Dragon flights
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2020/08/demo2-splashdown-in-gulf/

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