Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Messages - Sigmetnow

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 272
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 02:46:14 PM »
If after production and deliver hell of last year and continued layoffs they can still get their employees to volunteer for extra work then Tesla's glory is secured. The employees understand the importance of Tesla's mission and the sacrifices needed to succeed.

I  also hope Tesla taps volunteers from the general public. They should formalize it and create a volunteer corp that can be properly trained to do more than just talk with other customers.

If Tesla hired people for every end-of-quarter push, bears would be screaming about the ‘cash burn.’  Tesla is not your ordinary 9 to 5 job; employees realize extraordinary efforts are an important part of what makes Tesla a success.

"We have to deliver 30,000 more cars in next 15 days."

This will happen.  Some delivery centers are handling 200 cars a day now. Q1 will set another record.

Dennis Chang (@infoxer) 3/15/19, 6:32 AM
Video from one of two delivery center in Shanghai, as the hold lifted, Tesla is busy with delivery by both on site and truck. It’s said around 200 cars delivered on Friday.

New record!  From March 1 to 17, pure electric BEVs were 76.6% of new car sales in Oslo.

The Norwegian Electric Car Association believes that electric cars will account for almost 50 per cent of the new car sales nationwide in 2019.
Oslo setter elbilrekord - Nordic EV Summit åpner

Here’s Bjørn Nyland providing commentary over a video of the GLOVIS Courage unloading Teslas in Oslo.  From what I read elsewhere, the is the first time such a large vehicle carrier has docked in downtown Oslo.  Usually the ships go to larger ports and the cars are brought in by truck or train.  This ship is headed to Bremerhaven next.

Vital info for Europeans:  The Tesla Model Y will have a tow bar, and the Model 3 will be getting a tow bar soon.  The news comes via Norwegian site Elbien, which spoke with Franz von Holzhausen at the Model Y's launch event in California last week.

VW threatens to exit German automaker lobbying group over electric vehicle policies
Automakers have promoted policies to slow down the adoption of electric vehicles through lobbying groups for years.
Most recently, automakers associations have pushed against efforts to increase average fuel economy, which would have forced EVs to be built in higher volume.
Interestingly, several automakers were claiming to be ‘all-in on electric cars’ while indirectly supporting those lobbying efforts.
Now, Volkswagen appears to be recognizing this issue and is pressuring the Association of the German Automotive Industry (VDA), a powerful lobbying group in Germany, to promote electric vehicles. …

2020 Will Be the Electric Car Tipping Point
We won’t all be driving EVs by 2020. The best-selling American vehicles will still be three full-sized trucks traveling less than 20 miles on a gallon of gas. But, buyers, particularly on the luxury end, will have a range of EV options. Buying one should feel far more normal than niche.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: March 18, 2019, 06:24:25 PM »
How the Tesla big battery kept the lights on in South Australia
Our initial report has now been underscored by a detailed study from the Australian Energy Market Operator, which looked at why more than 1,190MW of load was shed in three states, why Queensland operated for nearly an hour and a half in an insecure state that could have gone pear-shaped very quickly, and why renewables-dominated South Australia had the most secure grid during the events.

The report underlines a few important points.

One, is that the Tesla big battery, again, proved itself to be an exceptionally valuable asset in the face of such events. It was the quickest to respond and showed a versatility un-matched by any other asset, and its efforts ensured that South Australia’s was the only state grid not to suffer widespread losses or operate in an insecure state, despite its high share of renewables.

Point two is that Australia’s ageing and slow-moving legacy assets reacted poorly, and it is increasingly clear that they are going to create headaches for the market operator as it manages the energy transition, and seeks to perform the energy equivalent of the shift from analogue to digital.

Three: new technologies such as wind farms and rooftop solar inverters are also throwing curve balls, with unexpected responses to different situations.

And four; the market operator and the rule-maker need to act quickly and decisively to bring in rules that are useful to the latest technology, and not those of the last century. ...

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: March 18, 2019, 04:54:14 PM »
Not as dramatic as the Air Force Base flooding, but impactful nonetheless:
NWS Omaha (@NWSOmaha)
3/17/19, 11:00 AM
You may encounter some broken links on our webpage, but our forecasters remain hard at work forecasting and issuing warnings and products. We've moved operations to Hastings, NE.

Thanks, @NWSHastings!
Image below.

New York City says electric cars are now the cheapest option for its fleet

Edit: more on this:
NYC reveals massive maintenance savings from electric cars in its fleet

Electric Cars With The Best Resale Value For 2019
No data available for the Model S yet.

The Model 3 drive system is designed and validated for over 1 million miles – this is what the gears look like after testing
Images below.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: March 18, 2019, 02:35:49 PM »
Watch a cool, 2-minute time-lapse video of the Crew Dragon maintaining position next to, and docking with, the International Space Station as they orbit the earth at over 17,000 miles per hour:
Cameron Byers (@Cameron_Byers_) 3/17/19, 6:56 PM
Edited a sped-up video of the DM-1 Dragon 2 docking. Really shows how active the guidance software is while at the 20m hold point. @NASASpaceflight @ChrisG_NSF @elonmusk #spacex #nasa


• Starship Hopper is preparing for first hop tests as soon as next week
• Their special formulation of stainless steel withstands test orbital entry temperature of 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC)
• SpaceX begins building a full Starship prototype

SpaceX’s first orbital Starship begins assembly as steel heat shield passes tests
Tests like those shown on March 17th by Musk indicate that SpaceX is indeed deep into the process of extensive and often destructive testing, something the company has proven to be exceptionally good at. It’s unclear if the above test of Starship’s hexagonal heat shield tiles – likely made out of a variant of 300-series stainless steel – involved tiles with active or passive cooling, but Musk suggested that the hot-spots created with spin-forming torches reached temperatures as high as 1650 Kelvin (2500ºF/1400ºC. Unlike the ablative heat shields SpaceX is familiar with building and operating through its Crew and Cargo Dragon spacecraft, a stainless steel heat shield would be expected to almost entirely resist erosion (i.e. ablation) during extremely high-velocity reentries of at least 12-14 km/s (~31,000 mph, Mach 40+).

Meanwhile, Musk also confirmed that SpaceX has decided to skip constructing a replacement nosecone/fairing for Starhopper, a functional Starship prototype that will be used to conduct extremely short hop tests like Falcon 9’s development-era Grasshopper and F9R test articles. Over the last several weeks, SpaceX technicians have been rapidly assembling what was initially assumed to be the replacement fairing Musk had previously suggested would be built. Instead, the duo of stainless steel barrel sections – relying on steel much thinner than the heavy-duty stuff used to build Starhopper – are apparently the beginnings of the first orbital-class Starship prototype, said by Musk to be aiming for flight-readiness as early as June 2019 around two months ago.

< Do y’all think #SpaceX will attempt some sort of test, With only one raptor [engine] or wait for the other two to arrive. It’s honestly been boggling my mind.
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/17/19, 3:37 PM
First (really short) hops with one engine. Suborbital flights with three.
< Saw this on Reddit, so the first hops are happening next week? [Image of road closure notice.]
EM: Hopefully. Always many issues integrating engine & stage. First hops will lift off, but only barely.

Policy and solutions / Re: Becoming Vegan.
« on: March 17, 2019, 03:59:27 PM »
New York City Public Schools Will Go Meatless on Mondays
Starting next school year, New York City's public school cafeterias will not serve meat on Mondays. Mayor Bill de Blasio announced (appropriately, on Monday) that the district's 1.1 million students must eat vegetarian or vegan for one day a week, as part of a national campaign aimed at improving public health and reducing agriculture's carbon footprint. ...

Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: March 17, 2019, 03:22:58 PM »
U.S.:  'Bomb Cyclone' Leaves Midwest Battling Floods
It's the worst flooding parts of the Midwest have seen in decades, where several states are battling the aftermath of a powerful "bomb cyclone" which swept through the region, bringing blizzard conditions, hurricane-like winds, snow and heavy rain.
The powerful storm pushed some waterways, including the Missouri River, to record levels in South Dakota, Iowa and Minnesota.

Marc Chenard, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told NPR many areas will remain water-logged for days.

"All the rivers respond differently, have different time scales that they flood and then recede. A lot of the rivers are going to remain in flood into the weekend, and some into next week," Chenard said. "Eventually as we head into next week, we should see more and more of the rivers start to recede below flood stage.” ...

Much more on this storm in the “Weird Weather...” thread.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 17, 2019, 03:11:32 PM »
China: Gigafactory 3 update
Dozens of pile-drivers have been working day and night for weeks to prepare the site for construction.  Now the above-ground construction really gets underway.

The first steel, prefabricated load-bearing column has been erected and duly celebrated.  Visible progress will happen quickly now!
Interesting to note that this phase of Giga3 looks quite like the facility Tesla is building in Lathrop, California….

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 3/16/19, 4:05 PM
Now Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory construction is moving to the next level!
Translation: “Congratulation to Tesla Gigafactory GF3 Shanghai for successfully installing the first steel pillar in phase one” …
Image below.

Kelvin Yang (@KelvinYang7) 3/16/19, 3:30 PM
Some additional information:
This first column is for General Assembly building. 11.5 meters,10.8 tons.
General Assembly building is 450m x 48m x 15m in size.

Giga 3 rendering below is from the Tesla Model Y unveiling on March 14.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 16, 2019, 06:30:43 PM »
How Tesla Proved Critics Wrong
People have said pretty much everything about Tesla. Some said the company was selling its vehicles at a loss and would never be able to make those vehicles under the right conditions, or fast enough. Others said Tesla’s founder, Elon Musk, was crazy and would lead the company to ruin. In early 2018, one car industry veteran even called on collectors to buy the Model S “before the company goes belly up.”

But then Tesla’s numbers started to look more promising. In its 2018 Q3 report, Tesla boosted its share price and gave the NASDAQ its best day in months. The company had also fulfilled its production and distribution objectives during Q3, showing every sign of staying in the black (at least until it had to pay interest on loans during the first quarter of 2019).

The Q3 earnings report doesn’t seem to be an exception, either: Q4 was also profitable and everything indicates that Tesla has found a stable way to generate profits. What’s more, Tesla is no longer an industry quirk: Many people have laughed at its production difficulties (while grossly underestimating the achievement of moving from a standing start to mass producing 80,000 vehicles per quarter). But the company is now outselling Porsche, Mercedes Benz, and BMW. This makes Tesla the best-selling domestically-made car company in the United States. The Tesla is also more technologically advanced than any other car on the market. It’s also cheaper and much safer to drive.

Those spectacular Q3 results confounded analysts’ forecasts, proving what some of us have been saying for a while now: Few can understand the strategic vision of a company that is prepared to take risks to change the world. Virtually everyone was wrong about Tesla’s finances and its future. Now, those analysts are scratching their heads and trying to understand what happened. This is because people can’t get their heads around the idea that a company’s customers would volunteer to help distribute its vehicles, contributing to a project they consider themselves part of. Elon Musk will doubtlessly bask in the warm glow of his “I-told-you-so” triumph for months to come. He understands that people want to be part of a project that’s not about selling cars but changing the world.

Few can understand the strategic vision of a company that is prepared to take risks to change the world.
Tesla’s profit margin for the Model 3 is 20 percent, well above the industry average in its segment. Overnight, Tesla’s prospects for growth and profitability seem to have become not only credible but probable (regardless of the belief in some quarters that Musk is crazy). I say the world would be a better place with a few more crazy people like him in positions of leadership.

Everyone was wrong about Tesla. In fact, the best thing about all this is that we’re not really talking about an automotive company here. Sure, some people still insist on calling Tesla a car manufacturer that’s not doing too badly, thanks to an innovative road map. But it turns out that the keys to Tesla’s future are batteries, not cars. The cost of batteries continues to fall as more and more batteries are produced and sold, not only for vehicles but also for homes and storage plants. Demand for solar power installations is growing consistently and thus, Tesla has miraculously found itself in one of the fastest-growing sectors in the world. Evidence shows that long-standing environmental concerns about traditional car manufacturing are fully justified. Suddenly, people are seeing the many years of hard work behind Tesla’s overnight success.

In other words: People who say it can’t be done should stop interrupting those who are doing it.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: March 16, 2019, 04:22:33 PM »
Third, the majors have the resources and technologies to cut methane emissions, and since they are under pressure to do so, they want to drag the rest of the industry along.

Or, they want to crush smaller competitors who are barely hanging on in today’s low oil price economy and can’t afford to invest in upgrades.

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: March 16, 2019, 04:06:03 PM »

The Missouri is a few inches away from the Brownsville nuclear plant's emergency status level and is forecast to breach it by almost 2 feet in the coming days.

Nebraska preps nuclear plant for possible flooding, no public danger*
PPD said its procedures require it to declare an unusual event to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission when the Missouri River tops 899 feet above sea level. It reached 899.05 feet Friday morning, the company said.

Should the river rise to 900 feet above sea level, NPPD said plant workers will "barricade internal doorways as another layer of protection for facility equipment."

If the river reaches 901.5 feet above sea level, NPPD said it would take the station offline as a protective measure.

*Pretty sure there’s a “but” or “unless” appropriate in there somewhere. :o

Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: March 16, 2019, 03:51:21 PM »
Young people in France are calling for a global “Citizen’s Boycott” for the climate this weekend, asking people to not buy or consume anything - including watching television - on March 15 and 16.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 16, 2019, 02:48:50 PM »
About the $2,500 paid when placing a Model Y order (all major credit cards and PayPal accepted!):

Yes, it’s refundable, any time up to when the car is delivered.
Yes, the amount is credited to the final pre-order price of your car.

No, Tesla isn’t counting it as revenue until the car is delivered.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 16, 2019, 02:26:19 PM »
So Tesla improves upon the best-selling EV in the world with the Model Y, giving it 66 cubic feet (1.9 cubic meters) of storage space, an optional third row for up to 7 seats, range up to 300 miles/483 km for $47k (230 miles/370km for $39k), a panoramic glass roof, world-leading, constantly-improving Tesla tech, and expected 5-star crash safety ratings in every category — and the general reaction is “Ho hum, is that all?”

I guess this is the new normal, then.  Other EV makers need to step up their game!
Walter MacVane (@EcoHeliGuy) 3/15/19, 2:26 AM
At 66 cubic feet, the Model Y slots in larger then the Lexus 350 RX(59), BMW X6(60). Lands halfway between the Q5(60) and Q7(72). With the optional 3rd row it’s closest to the Jeep Grand Cherokee (68) and Nissan Murano (67)

Tom Randall (@tsrandall) 3/15/19, 12:18 AM
The new Model Y looks sharp, taking some of the best elements of the Y and X. I wouldn't be surprised if the range is a bit longer by the time it comes out—Musk suggested as much.

And, it turns out, there was “one more thing.”  After the webcast ended, they flashed a teaser image of the upcoming Tesla pickup truck!

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 14, 2019, 08:25:07 PM »
Monthly records being broken.
Lasse Edvardsen (@nasalahe) 3/14/19, 4:47 AM
Model 3 registration in Norway just beat the old Model S record from March 2014. Most registered @Tesla in one month, and we are not even half into March! If they continue at this pace they will beat the record of most registered car, of any kind, registered in one Month! #tesla
This record is actually held by another EV. Nissan Leaf with 2389 cars registered in March 2018.
Data image below.

Lasse Edvardsen (@nasalahe) 3/14/19, 2:56 PM
And more cars arriving today... Video: Bjarne Henrik Tovang
Image below; Video clip at the link pans across the dock and into the ship

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 3/14/19, 12:01 PM
Tesla Model 3 massive delivery in China will start on March 15th.
All/Most of the shipments to China recently will finish delivery before the end of Q1

“We do need hope, of course we do,” she says. “But the one thing we need more than hope is action.”

16-year-old climate activist Greta Thunberg nominated for Nobel Peace Prize

Another detailed study of lifetime carbon emissions for ICE cars vs. EVs.  Crossover generally occurs within the first year of ownership.  Images below are for a Tesla Model 3 vs. a BMW 330i;  see the link for e-Golf vs Golf 1.6 TDI, and more.  You can input your own country and annual mileage (km).
Sources are listed in the spreadsheet.

ceo plus, Roger Rusch (@ceo_plus_ch) 3/11/19, 6:46 AM
So, now here’s the CO2 comparison of owning a #Tesla #Model3 vs #BMW #330i in the US:
- lifetime CO2eq emissions split into prod & operation categories
- emissions accumulation chart with break-even point (Model 3 equals CO2 surplus from battery prod after 0.9 years)

And now it’s playtime ;D : Here’s the english & clickable spreadsheet with 4 tabs:
- e-Golf vs Golf 1.6 TDI
- #Tesla #Model3 vs #BMW #330i
- Tesla ModelS vs BMW #530i
- 100km of ModelS vs BMW vs Audi
You can play around with the green fields. Enjoy!

Here’s the spreadsheet:

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 14, 2019, 03:22:40 PM »
Tesla Driver(@m_xalher) 3/14/19, 8:25 AM
MODEL 3 MANIA! “Glovis Courage” docking in the heart of Oslo now to unload thousands of Model 3s.
- Strange seeing this huge car carrier in the middle of the Oslo business district of Aker Brygge. It’s the first time a ship like this docks in central Oslo to unload, as they normally unload at Drammen port (where another ship of Model 3s is due tomorrow).
- Update: The car carrier (ship) is going to dock in central Oslo. This is the FIRST TIME ever a large car carrier unloads directly in Oslo. Normally cars are shipped to Norway in smaller ships, and dock at the port of Drammen durther down the coast. @tesla Model 3 taking over!
More photos at the link.

U.S.: scenes from the winter side of the storm.

Darin Brooks (@UtahWxMan)
3/13/19, 4:28 PM the shopping cart corral
Video clip: extreme winds, snow, near whiteout conditions. Colorado.

Meredith Garofalo (@GarofaloWX)
3/13/19, 7:20 PM
WRECKAGE ON THE ROADS - This is why as meteorologists we try to give you as much notice as possible to terrible weather. This video was taken between Monument & Castle Rock, south of Denver off of I-25 Wednesday AM. Drive safe everyone!
Video clip passing highway vehicle pile-up. Colorado.

NWS Rapid City (@NWSRapidCity)
3/13/19, 7:28 PM
Well, that was a fun balloon launch...
Video clip.  South Dakota.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 14, 2019, 01:19:45 PM »
Preview of what Tesla bears will say after the Model Y (MY) reveal tonight. Image below.

BTW: Looks like NASA will announce next week that it wants SpaceX to launch NASA’s Orion uncrewed mission around the moon, rather than the space agency’s own SLS rocket, which is facing delays....,2582.msg191926.html#msg191926

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: March 14, 2019, 01:07:34 PM »
Looks like NASA will announce next week that it wants SpaceX to launch the Orion uncrewed mission around the moon, rather than NASA’s own SLS rocket, which is facing delays.  (SpaceX could launch several Falcon Heavy rockets more quickly, and at much less cost, than one SLS launch.)
Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) 3/13/19, 10:25 AM
Big news: NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine says agency will consider launching EM-1 mission of Orion crew capsule around the moon on a private rocket.
Bridenstine says NASA wants to keep its commitment to launching the EM-1 mission by June 2020.

Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) 3/13/19, 10:28 AM
NASA would use two rockets: One to launch Orion into low-Earth orbit. One to launch a fully fueled upper stage. They would mate, and then Orion flies its EM-1 mission profile. "NASA has a history of not meeting launch dates, and I'm trying to change that."
Incredible to hear.

Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) 3/13/19, 1:14 PM
Have heard that one company recently sent an unsolicited proposal to NASA to launch Orion on its rockets.
Which are built in LA.
See also: his other March 13 tweets….

Facing more delays, NASA opens door to launching lunar mission with commercial rockets

Reddit discussion:

 97 mph wind gust confirmed at Colorado Springs Municipal Airport!

Not a tornado, or hurricane, or tropical storm.  A winter storm!

Image: wind at 850 hpa — roughly 5,000 feet (1,500 meters).

And now Fiat Chrysler.  Again.

Fiat Chrysler recalling 965,000 US and Canadian vehicles over excess emissions
The California Air Resources (CARB) Board said 50,000 California vehicles must be repaired, or drivers "will not be able to register their vehicles."

California and Fiat Chrysler said the vehicles emit nitrogen oxide (NOx) pollution above regulatory limits. California said Fiat Chrysler's "own data and test results confirmed that the catalytic converters in these vehicles were malfunctioning."

NOx emissions in California are a major contributor to ambient ozone and to fine particulate matter pollution, which is associated with asthma emergency room visits, increased hospitalizations due to exacerbated chronic heart and lung diseases, and other serious health problems, CARB said.

In January, Fiat Chrysler agreed to a settlement worth about $800 million to resolve claims by the U.S. Justice Department and the state of California that it used illegal software to produce false results on diesel-emissions tests. It is awaiting the outcome of a criminal probe.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: March 13, 2019, 08:57:31 PM »

New Mexico to commit to 100 percent carbon-free electricity by 2045
In addition to the carbon-free electricity goal, New Mexico’s Energy Transition Act calls for 80 percent of electricity to come from renewable energy sources by 2040. Other incremental benchmarks include 50 percent renewable energy sources by 2030 and 40 percent by 2025.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 13, 2019, 08:47:47 PM »
tesla became great also because it first had a usable beauty available while i'm wondering why nobody cares to mention that this model 3 looks like a gogo mobil from the 50ies, i find it's front ugly while the back and sides are ok.

Style and beauty are personal tastes; more and more Tesla buyers disagree with you every day. 8) Engineering designed to bring top aerodynamic performance (and thus range) to a vehicle is a feature fledgling EV makers have not yet dared to bring to market, because they are still trying to prove their ICE vehicles are superior while making poor-performing EVs (i.e., the e-tron, iPace) available, for compliance purposes and for getting people into showrooms so they can persuade them to buy an ICE car, instead.

Europeans with Model 3 reservations have had three years to change their minds about the look of a Model 3, but they waited.  And now they’re making the Model 3 a top-seller from the start.  A futuristic, purposeful design is exactly what they want. :P

The Honda EV’s retro design is attractive to others, even if you don’t like it. It would seem your taste is far from the arbiter of success!,438.msg190513.html#msg190513

Jaguar Land Rover recalls 44,000 cars over carbon dioxide levels
Recalls of cars to fix safety defects happen fairly often, but full product recalls because of exhaust emissions are rare. It is thought to be the first carbon dioxide-related recall for JLR.
The repairs could include software updates as well as physical alterations, and some Range Rover Evoque models will need new tyres, a JLR spokesperson said.

Volkswagen is going all-in on electric vehicles.

Maybe.  If they survive.  VW is struggling with fixed ICE costs, cutting a workforce for a product that requires 30% less labor, and revamping an R&D force based on hardware... to one more focussed on software.  And they still say they will maintain new ICE development until 2026.  So while it’s good to hear them talk the talk, walking the walk is a different matter.

Volkswagen warns on jobs as margins slip, electric plans accelerate

VW says final generation of combustion engines will launch in 2026

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 13, 2019, 06:09:16 PM »
The EU is still largely a compliance EV market.  The U.S. was, too — until the rise of the Tesla Model 3, which is now the top selling luxury car in the US and became the best-selling US car by revenue. In the last quarter of 2018, 68% of BEV sales in the US were Model 3s (86% were Tesla).

Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun). 3/12/19, 12:46 AM
This report from Europe levels serious criticism at the European OEMs, and includes a table with a long list of the EV delays by European OEMs.
Report claims that EU OEMs are intentionally suppressing sales to, among other things, protect ... sales of diesel powered cars.


Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 13, 2019, 05:56:42 PM »
Traveling salesperson trades Audi Q3 for Tesla Model 3, documents savings.
Aniseh Sharifi (@ani_seh)
I don’t have a charger at home.
I typically charge my car at work and I don’t pay to do this.
I work in sales and I’m on the road quite a bit.
These Supercharger costs are when I charge my car on the road and on the weekends.
That's not a fair comparison, as the unknown workplace charging costs are born by his employer. Although i'm sure his costs would have gone down significantly anyway.

It’s not clearly documented, but I would guess the “gas costs” shown are limited to road-trip costs, since they would need to be itemized separately for expense reports and/or taxes.  That would make them comparable to the Supercharger use; in both cases most day-to-day local driving is omitted. 

In any case, “I’m on the road quite a bit,” so local driving should be a small percentage of the total mileage.

Video shows you how to compare average gas or electricity costs for any ICE car or EV. 

Just looking at the very low $2.35 [per gallon of gas] rate, you’d have to have a car that gets some 60 mpg to make gas costs similar to electricity costs. In the end, when looking at more realistic gas prices, an EV will save you a ton of money. The best part is, Engineering Explained provides an easy equation so that you can run the comparisons yourself before you move forward.

It’s the efficiency of electric cars — the motor, and regenerative braking.  Even the only-moderately-efficient Performance Model 3 moves you 310 miles on an equivalent of 2.2 gallons (8.3 liters) of gasoline!

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 13, 2019, 03:19:08 PM »
Are Chinese electric car start-ups doomed after Tesla’s big price cuts?
Tesla’s price cuts have provoked a fierce debate over the maturity of domestic EV industry – especially newcomers. 
Rapid growth in China’s EV market has been driven by government incentives to encourage consumers to shift away from gas guzzlers

In recent years there has been a wave of Chinese electric vehicle makers – from Byton to Nio to Xpeng – looking to take on Elon Musk’s Tesla, encouraged by government support for a move away from the internal combustion engine.  Now that the Palo Alto-based giant has slashed prices ahead of commencing local production later this year in China, people are asking if the burgeoning crowd of domestic challengers are going to run out of road.

It has become such a hot topic that even Miao Wei, China’s industry and information technology minister, has joined the debate.
“Not all [independent Chinese carmakers] will die, but neither can they all survive,” the minister told the China Securities Journal when asked about the impact of Tesla’s price cuts on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress on Tuesday.

Volkswagen warns on jobs as margins slip, electric plans accelerate
WOLFSBURG, Germany (Reuters) - Volkswagen will cut jobs as it speeds up the rollout of less labor-intensive electric cars and will review its sprawling portfolio of brands as it battles to reverse a slide in profit margins, the German carmaker said on Tuesday.
The company said it planned to launch almost 70 new electric models by 2028, aiming to put itself at the forefront of the industry's shift to zero-emissions driving following the 2015 scandal over its cheating of U.S. diesel emissions tests.

However, it said investments to retool factories, as well as adverse currency moves and a sales slowdown triggered by new emissions certification tests, led to a fall in operating margins at its VW, Skoda, Audi and Porsche marques last year.
The margin at its top-selling VW brand slipped to 3.8 percent in 2018 from 4.2 percent in 2017.
"Despite all the rhetoric, the opportunity to reduce an historically high fixed cost base, 2018 actually saw a new high," Evercore ISI analysts said. "This is unacceptable."
At 1550 GMT, Volkswagen shares were down 2.1 percent at 143.54 euros.
The group said it would respond by aligning management pay and bonuses more closely with profitability, cutting manufacturing complexity and reducing headcount by an unspecified amount.

Traveling salesperson trades Audi Q3 for Tesla Model 3, documents savings.
Aniseh Sharifi (@ani_seh)
I don’t have a charger at home.
I typically charge my car at work and I don’t pay to do this.
I work in sales and I’m on the road quite a bit.
These Supercharger costs are when I charge my car on the road and on the weekends.
On average I drive 25,000kms/yr.
I picked up the #model3 on 25/5/18.
Today, the car has 21,451kms.
My driving habits have not changed.  You can tell when the busy months are on the road.
Weather conditions do affect how much the heat/AC is used and how often charging is needed.
Image below.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: March 13, 2019, 02:01:48 PM »
Audio:  The first 2 hours of radio traffic from the Paradise, California wildfire, starting from the initial dispatch.  The fire begins near Pulga, in the upper right of the map below, spreading quickly to Concow, then Paradise.

Radio traffic - The first 2 hours of the Camp Fire in Paradise

Policy and solutions / Re: The Boring Company
« on: March 12, 2019, 09:12:23 PM »
Las Vegas tunnel is Approved!
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 3/12/19, 3:48 PM
Looking forward to building a Boring Company tunnel in Vegas. Assuming to be operational by end of year!

LVCVA moving ahead with underground transport system
The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority is going underground.
The organization’s board of directors on Tuesday approved a proposal with Elon Musk’s The Boring Co. to develop a subterranean people-moving transit system costing between $35 million and $55 million for the Las Vegas Convention Center in a 10-3 vote.

Proposed route options would run from the Convention Center’s Green Lot east of the South Hall to a new parking area west of the West Hall currently under construction, a distance of more than 1¼ miles.
LVCVA President and CEO Steve Hill and Steve Davis, president of The Boring Co., described what’s being called the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop as an autonomous point-to-point on-demand system with vehicles capable of transporting up to 16 people at a time.
The system would use autonomous electric vehicles, or AEVs, on three types of Tesla Model X chassis with rubber tires operated in automatic pilot mode.

Using paired one-way tunnels with a series of on- and off-ramps, the AEVs could be hailed by app for direct service to another station. Conventioneers would access the underground system by elevators, escalators or stairs. Hill said the LVCVA envisions use of the Convention Center Loop to be free to conventioneers.
While the system is capable of speeds of up to 150 mph, the short distance between stations at the Convention Center would keep a vehicle’s speed at a maximum of around 50 mph.

According to LVCVA documents, pre-cast concrete tunnels would be built about 30 feet below grade level with a 12-foot inner diameter and a 13½-foot outer diameter. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 12, 2019, 06:27:11 PM »
Scared much?  The Kansas City car dealers association doesn’t want people even looking at a Tesla.

Tesla Model S and X owners face discrimination at dealer-run auto show

Policy and solutions / Re: The Hyperloop
« on: March 12, 2019, 06:01:01 PM »
“This is not your grandmother’s mag-lev.”

Virgin Hyperloop One CTO on When You Can Ride: "Years... Not Decades"
Virgin One says it's improved upon the designs etched out in the famous Musk white paper.

With a video answering the Top Ten Questions.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 12, 2019, 03:17:25 PM »
A hydroelectric dam is part of the situation.

These Pictures Show Just How Severe Venezuela's Massive Blackouts Are
As many as 17 people have died in massive power blackouts across Venezuela, which have left hospitals without power and led to shortages in gas, food, and water.
March 11, 2019

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 12, 2019, 01:59:23 PM »
What is the difference between a non-recourse loan and a recourse loan?
Not surprisingly, as a matter of principle, borrowers almost always favor non-recourse loans, while lenders almost always favor recourse loans. While potential borrowers might find it attractive to hold out for non-recourse loans, it is important to remember that they come with higher interest rates and are reserved for individuals and businesses with the best credit.

This time next year, China will have a Tesla factory, and production lines making 3,000 a week of the Number 1 selling car on the planet.
...find out what the quickest ever timeline is for similar factory getting set up. ...
The Giga 3 line is a copy of an existing line.  It is not setting up a whole new process.  Tesla has already had over two years to improve and refine its Model 3 production line.  You will, apparently, be amazed!

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 12, 2019, 01:43:26 PM »
A longer take on Germany’s news from January.

Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on renewable energy
Germany, one of the world’s biggest consumers of coal, will shut down all 84 of its coal-fired power plants over the next 19 years to meet its international commitments in the fight against climate change, a government commission said Saturday.

The announcement marked a significant shift for Europe’s largest country — a nation that had long been a leader on cutting CO2 emissions before turning into a laggard in recent years and badly missing its reduction targets. Coal plants account for 40% of Germany’s electricity, itself a reduction from recent years when coal dominated power production.
The decision to quit coal follows an earlier bold energy policy move by the German government, which decided to shut down all of its nuclear power plants by 2022 in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster in 2011.
Included in the recommendations was that the phase-out target be reviewed every three years. Also, the final deadline could be moved forward, if possible, by three years to 2035.

The initial targets are considerable, calling for a quarter of the country’s coal-burning plants with a capacity of 12.5 gigawatts to be shut down by 2022. That means about 24 plants will be shut within the first three years. By 2030, Germany should have about eight coal-burning plants remaining, producing 17 gigawatts of electricity, the commission said.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 11, 2019, 09:53:15 PM »
These arrangements are yet another nail in the Tesla Bear coffin.  Financial institutions with millions and even billions of dollars at stake have done their due diligence, agree Tesla is set for success, and they are eager to be a part of it.  The bear argument simply does not fit reality.

It has been years since any institution has made an unsecured loan to Tesla.

This time next year, China will have a Tesla factory, and production lines making 3,000 a week of the Number 1 selling car on the planet — and they’ll be collecting taxes on each one of them — and tariffs on the ones exported to APAC countries.  While preventing further ICE sales from clogging their air, and forcing the other automakers to up their game.  More than enough dividends for a cheap loan which is certain to be repaid.

Edit:  if China had any doubts about the loan, they would have demanded a higher interest rate.  The fact that Tesla obtained a rate below what even the best banks pay is a reflection of the low risk China judges the transaction to have.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 11, 2019, 09:01:11 PM »
Elon’s email: some stores don’t pass the Sherlock Holmes test: people can’t find them!
From: Elon Musk
To: Everybody
March 10, 2019
We are making an adjustment to our plans and will, at least for the next several months, retain more stores than previously announced. For the most part, the roughly 10% of Tesla sales locations we closed recently don't pass the Sherlock Holmes test. Meaning, most of these stores are in such difficult or obscure locations, only Sherlock Holmes could find them! Even if selling through stores were our only means of sales, we would still have closed them down. A few stores in high visibility locations that were closed due to low apparent demand generation will be reopened, but with a smaller Tesla crew.
There are another 20% of locations that are under review. Depending on their effectiveness over the next few months, some will be closed and some will remain open.
As a result of keeping significantly more stores open, Tesla will need to raise vehicle prices by about 3% or so on average worldwide. All things considered, this seems like a reasonable compromise between current and future customers. We will only close about half as many stores, but the cost savings are therefore only about half.
Potential Tesla owners will have a week to place their orders before prices rise, so current prices are valid until March 18th. Note, there will be no price increase to the $35,000 Model 3. The price increases will only apply to the more expensive variants of Model 3, as well as Model S and X.
To be clear, all sales worldwide will still be done online, in that potential Tesla owners coming in to stores will simply be shown how to order a Tesla on their phone in a few minutes. And the generous return policy of 1000 miles or 7 days, whichever comes first, should alleviate the need for most test drives at stores at the potential Tesla owner's request. Stores will also carry a small number of cars in inventory for customers who wish to drive away with a Tesla immediately.

Porsche has next-gen batteries for longer-range electric vehicles coming next year, says CEO

'24 Hours of Lemons' opens electric car category in infamous crappy car race

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 11, 2019, 07:26:03 PM »
The World Inside Tesla Is Completely Different From The Media’s Portrayal Of Tesla
Elon Musk responded:  “True”

Tesla Model 3 Quickly Rises To #1 In The Netherlands
One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe regards the impact it’s going to have on this side of the Atlantic. Will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?

The answer is now starting to be written. Comparing the Tesla Model 3 deliveries in the vehicle’s first month on the market against its midsize premium competitors, we can see that it has managed to outrun them all. Meanwhile, Audi A4 and BMW 3 Series registrations are down some 50%, but Mercedes sales are actually up, which could mean that BMW and Audi buyers are defecting to Tesla in much larger numbers than Mercedes loyalists.
Image of TM3/ICE list below.

To recap we have now Norway, Netherlands, Germany where the Model 3 is already top of the list in each country and in France #2….

CANADA:  Winter weather cools February sales by 2% - large losses Audi/BMW/Mercedes and gains Tesla

Before anyone suggests “Backlog!” a reminder:  that same thing was said about sales after the launch of the Model S.  And the Model X.  But Tesla sells even more of those now, compared to back then.  And as of last fall in the U.S., 75% of all sales were from new orders, not reservation holders.
No other company is anywhere near a profitable high-volume $35k EV, and by the time they are, Tesla will be able to make a profitable $25k EV.  All that “cash burn” wasn‘t wasted money, it was investment in unbeatable R&D.

"The complexity of solving this problem is like a manned mission to Mars," Sedran said of the development of completely driverless vehicles.
VW says driverless vehicles have limited appeal and high cost
GENEVA, March 5 (Reuters) - Fully autonomous vehicles will take at least another five years to perfect, with the cost and complexity of rolling out the technology globally serving to undermine the business case, Volkswagen's head of commercial vehicles said.

Autonomous cars require high-tech infrastructure, hugely expensive lidar and radar systems, as well as pricey deals with cloud computing and mapping providers, VW's Thomas Sedran told Reuters on the sidelines of the Geneva motor show.

"It will take another five years to develop the technology to achieve higher levels of autonomy. Can you see a business case which justifies these overheads for this period of time? It's just too expensive," Sedran said.

"Who is going to keep up that kind of spending for five years without a clear business case," he said.

Tesla is buying car-hauling trucks and trailers using $13 million in TSLA shares

Vincent (@vincent13031925) 3/10/19, 2:48 PM
Geeze, now Tesla is hiding all the “overstock” vehicles in my local Costco parking lot!! #DemandProblem
Reality: Many happy Tesla owners in my area…, gonna see way lot more when Model Y is ready.
Parking lot photos at the link. ;)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 11, 2019, 07:15:54 PM »
As a result of keeping significantly more stores open, Tesla will need to raise vehicle prices by about 3% on average worldwide. In other words, we will only close about half as many stores, but the cost savings are therefore only about half.

Potential Tesla owners will have a week to place their order before prices rise, so current prices are valid until March 18th. There will be no price increase to the $35,000 Model 3. The price increases will only apply to the more expensive variants of Model 3, as well as Model S and X.

So, Tesla drives a week of increased sales before the end of Q1. Shocking.
Have they decreased prices before?  You bet:  right before announcing increased prices for refreshed/improved versions of the Model S/X.  Said refreshes being long overdue at this point.  Plus, a big reveal (or two?) happens this Thursday....

Inexperience?  Or, 4-D chess?  Time will tell. 
But the “closing stores and slashing prices mean bankruptcy is definitely imminent” crowd will need to come up with new reasoning. Again.

Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: March 11, 2019, 06:58:15 PM »
Brisbane, Sydney weather: Severe heatwave, storms and possible cyclone
Brisbane’s CBD could reach 36C today, while Ipswich, in the west, may get close to 40C, which would break its previous March record high temperature.

And if that’s not enough weather for you, storms “day in, day out” could hit the sunshine state this week, while a tropical cyclone looks to be brewing off Australia’s north coast, forecasters have said.

Parts of Sydney could also experience scorching highs more akin to summer than autumn over the coming days. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 10, 2019, 09:47:07 PM »
Tesla Is Following A Timeline Laid Out Many Months Ago, Yet Critics Are Acting Surprised

Amazon Proved Online Retail Prowess, Tesla Destined To Do The Same
- 82 percent of customers bought their Model 3 without ever having taken a test drive.
- Bloomberg predicts that Tesla’s move to online sales “will turn out to be prescient… [as] 78 percent of all Model 3 sales were already online last year. And millennials — one of the key targets for the Model 3 — have highly favorable views of the Tesla brand and are keen to buy products over the internet.”
- car salespeople remain “one of the least trusted professions in America today.” The only group of professionals less trusted than car salespeople are Members of Congress
Poll results below.

“Just gave a neighbor a walkthrough of the Model 3, as she had questions after Tesla store test drive - her feedback: you know so much more than the person that gave the test drive ... maybe @elonmusk knows what he’s doing!”

Tesla pushes delivery timeline for new standard Model 3 orders as demand soars

Tesla Model 3 = Best Selling Electric Car In Germany
Chart below.

Morten Lund (@mortenlund89) 3/10/19, 11:56 AM
#AsianKing has departed San Francisco.
ETA Shanghai: 24th of March
Greg Wester (@gwestr) 3/10/19, 3:11 PM
Tesla destination charging is life altering. Imagine if everywhere you travel to gave you 16 free gallons of gasoline?

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: March 10, 2019, 06:54:24 PM »
Wyoming passes coal support bill in spate of Western action to save ailing plants
The energy proposals across the U.S. West illustrate how state lawmakers are responding to the market transition away from coal power in the face of inaction from the White House.

In Wyoming, the S.F. 159 would only allow utilities to recover the costs of building new power plants to replace retiring coal generators if they first make "a good faith effort" to sell the closing facilities. If a buyer can be found, the bill would direct utilities to purchase power from the plants back from the purchaser.

The bill comes after PacifiCorp, which owns Wyoming utility Rocky Mountain Power, said in December that 60% of its coal fleet is uneconomic, including plants in Wyoming.

In Montana, the so-called "save-Colstrip" bill would allow utility Northwestern Energy to buy a larger share of the newest unit of the Colstrip power plant for $1 and pass the costs onto its captive customers.
In New Mexico, coal developments come as part of a broad clean energy bill that would move the state's utilities to 80% renewables by 2040 and mandate that the remaining power come from zero-carbon sources.

The bill, Senate Bill 489, would allow utility Public Service of New Mexico to securitize the costs of closing its 847 MW San Juan plant, slated to come offline in 2022. That would allow PNM to issue AAA-rated bonds to recover stranded costs in the plant, which ratepayers would repay through bill surcharge. ...

Meeting planned to plan a joint meeting to… make a plan.

If approved at Nissan's scheduled board meeting on Tuesday, the three companies' top executives will unveil the plan for the joint meeting, TV Tokyo said.

To discuss issues related to their alliance in a step toward integration of operations.

Renault, Nissan, Mitsubishi plan joint board meeting, eye integration

Avalanches Menace Colorado as Climate Change Raises the Risk
Against the backdrop of an 800-foot high mountain wall scarred by avalanches, Arapahoe Basin mountain operations director Tim Finnigan says he can't remember a cycle of winter storms and avalanches in Colorado as extreme as this.

In the past week, masses of snow sliding off mountains shut down ski resorts, damaged gas lines and buried cars on busy highways. Along Interstate 70—a key east-west corridor through the Rocky Mountains—massive clouds of pulverized snow moving at speeds of up to 200 mph pushed pickup trucks into the median and left the road covered with piles of compressed frozen snow as hard as concrete.

Normally, avalanche experts with the Colorado Department of Transportation reduce the risk by releasing controlled avalanches while roads are closed, but the extreme conditions in early March took even seasoned Colorado veterans by surprise, with large avalanches unexpectedly hitting roads while they were open. On March 8, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center said 346 avalanches had been reported in the previous seven days. Two people died in the avalanches.

"CDOT will have to rethink their avalanche work along I-70 after this," Finnigan said as he slurped soup at the Arapahoe Basin lodge after a day of blasting mountain slopes. He has worked in the snow safety field for about 30 years, sometimes triggering controlled avalanches with hand-thrown charges or by cutting into brittle slopes with his skis.

Snow scientists say extreme avalanches are among the accelerating impacts of climate change in mountain regions. Global warming can affect avalanches in several ways:

• More moisture in a warmer atmosphere can fuel more extreme snowstorms, which means bigger avalanches.
• Warmer temperatures can make snow layers collapse and slide.
• More rain-on-snow events also destabilize snow layers.
He recently surveyed 240 avalanche experts and snow scientists to learn how global warming is changing the risks associated with dangerous snow slides.

"The findings were really consistent, with an increase in observed avalanches, and even more predicted, especially wet snow and wet slab avalanches, because that's related to warming temperatures," he said. ...

Wettest winter on record for the U.S..  Every state at or above normal precipitation.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 272