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Messages - Sigmetnow

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Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 21, 2019, 05:19:00 PM »
Michael Demaray (@MYDemaray) 10/20/19, 2:36 PM
Stumbled across a lot just packed with Model Ys. ...
Two-minute video at the link.

Morten Grove (@mortenlund89) 10/20/19, 5:39 AM
Jasper Arrow the 6th Q4 Tesla-ship has arrived at Pier 80 to load Model 3,S,X

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 21, 2019, 05:16:31 PM »
I think I will wait to post here again until the BK happens. So goodbye for the next few months.
Until the biggest "I told you so" ever, so long.

Proving once again the value of your words here.  Less than zero.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 19, 2019, 09:53:48 PM »
How soon until these fossil fuel investment amounts become a relic of history — or a cause of the banks’ failure...?

Top investment banks provide billions to expand fossil fuel industry
Exclusive: analysis reveals lenders provided $700bn to expand sector since Paris climate pact
The world’s largest investment banks have provided more than $700bn of financing for the fossil fuel companies most aggressively expanding in new coal, oil and gas projects since the Paris climate change agreement, figures show.

The financing has been led by the Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase, which has provided $75bn (£61bn) to companies expanding in sectors such as fracking and Arctic oil and gas exploration, according to the analysis.

The New York bank is one of 33 powerful financial institutions to have provided an estimated total of $1.9tn to the fossil fuel sector between 2016 and 2018.
Ensuring a managed decline of the oil and gas industry while also financing the next wave of renewable energy products is deemed to be vital.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 19, 2019, 09:34:38 PM »
Lyft joins SAE International, Ford, General Motors, Toyota, Uber ATG and Daimler as a core member of the Automated Vehicle Safety Consortium (AVSC), “focused on collaboration ahead of a winner takes all mentality.”

(Because they realize none of them alone can take on Tesla’s lead in Full Self Driving.)

Self-Driving Requires Unprecedented Collaboration

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 19, 2019, 07:42:49 PM »
Assaad Razzouk (@AssaadRazzouk) 10/19/19, 5:03 AM
Dubai MBR Solar Park: Evolution of solar costs

2015: Phase 1, 200MW, 5.85 c/kWh
2015: Phase 2, 200MW, 5.6 c/kWh
2016: Phase 3, 800MW, 2.99 c/kWh
2018: Phase 4, 250MW, 2.4 c/kWh
2019: Phase 5, 900MW, 1.69 c/ kWh

That’s down 71% in 5 years

Fossil fuel power is so 20th century
Photo below.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 19, 2019, 05:49:51 PM »
The Boca Chica road closures scheduled for October 23-25 have been cancelled.  Stay tuned....


SpaceX’s fourth Starship prototype has begun to take shape in Florida
October 18, 2019
SpaceX’s Florida Starship team appears to have taken the first step towards assembling Starship Mk4, the fourth full-scale prototype of the next-generation spaceship.

Although SpaceX’s Boca Chica, Texas Starship campus is undeniably in the lead with their first prototype, Starship Mk1, it appears that the company’s Florida campus is far ahead of Texas with their second Starship prototype.

At the moment, SpaceX has set up two separate Starship build teams in Florida and Texas with the intention of creating a sort of internal competition to see which group’s Starships are first to flight and first to orbit. For the most part, it’s assumed that this “competition” is less a fight to the finish line than it is an A/B test, a common software development practice in which separate teams pursue different methods of achieving the same goals.

In the likely event that SpaceX is performing a radical form of A/B testing with rocket prototypes, both teams are continuously sharing best-practices and lessons-learned as they work to find the best possible methods for fabricating hardware and assembling Starships. Nevertheless, in A/B testing, fundamentally different approaches also tend to result in development schedules and final products that are unique, even if the end results are similar.

In the context of Starship, this is exactly what can be observed at SpaceX’s Florida and Texas facilities. Similarities abound in the radical method of en plein air manufacturing being implemented, while the Starship Mk1 and Mk2 hardware being built and assembled are also relatively similar, even if they have some distinct characteristics. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 19, 2019, 05:22:16 PM »
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/15/19, 6:06 PM
So much respect for those doing high volume manufacturing. It’s insanely hard, but you make a real thing that people value. My hat is off to you …

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/15/19, 6:18 PM
Anyone who’s interested in working on cutting edge manufacturing — designing & building the machine that makes the machine — please consider working at Tesla or SpaceX. We’re gonna take this to a whole new level!
< I take it you’re soaking in the feels at Gigafactory 3? Are things going well there?
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/15/19, 6:10 PM
Tesla team has done an incredible job with Giga Shanghai. Honored to work with them. I’m in awe.

Russia has its own legion of Elon Musk fans.
Here’s an invitation they made:
Илон Маск Песня Elon Musk . Only Elon in Our Hearts. Только Илон в наших сердцах. - YouTube

And this just happened:
Илон Маск, Краснодар, форум Дело За Малым | Elon Mask in Krasnodar forum, Russia - YouTube

I normally don’t read or link to RussiaToday, but they have an article:
Young Russians serenade Elon Musk, put up billboard outside his office as elaborate invitation to entrepreneur forum

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 19, 2019, 05:11:13 PM »
- Since the beginning of the decade, a partial list of EV failures includes Bright Automotive, AMP, Aptera, Coda, Detroit Electric, Fisker Automotive and LeEco.
- While some of the names on the list were seriously underfunded, others generated plenty of cash.
- Fisker, one of the most notable flame-outs, raised more than $2 billion in cash
- Bollinger and Rivian are companies to watch.
Electric car start-ups — once seen as threat — now struggle to survive
(Others who have announced EVs, then pulled back: Apple, Dyson, Faraday Future.)

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/15/19, 6:06 PM
So much respect for those doing high volume manufacturing. It’s insanely hard, but you make a real thing that people value. My hat is off to you …

U.S.:  A fleet of 40 Tesla Model 3s is creating an all-electric taxi service in Madison, Wisconsin

Volvo unveils electric XC40 Recharge: 250 miles of range, dual motors and more

Also discussed briefly in:


Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 19, 2019, 03:05:33 PM »
Strong wind power in the US Midwest today means wholesale prices are below zero
When there’s an overabundance of solar or wind, grid operators send prices plunging to negative levels — a signal to generators that they need to take supplies offline so they don’t overload transmission lines.

On Friday, wind output surged to as much as 17,264 megawatts across the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) — a grid that stretches from North Dakota to Texas. That’s more than 60% of the region’s power.

Power prices fell below negative $10 a megawatt-hour for much of the region. ...

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 19, 2019, 01:55:04 PM »
The problem of ‘crowded orbits,’ dead satellites and space debris is being addressed today, and is quickly becoming big business.  Expect major improvements in the next few years.

In the meantime, about 97% of the earth’s surface is available for space debris to fall on without hitting any humans.
95% Of The World's Population Lives On 10% Of The Land
The earth’s surface is 71% water, 29% land.
So 95% of the world’s population lives on only 2.9% of the earth’s surface.

—- Here’s OneWeb’s satellite safety plan:
By October 2017, OneWeb had filed documents with the US FCC with their space debris mitigation plan. OneWeb "satellites are designed for mission lives of at least five years, and 'the post-mission disposal operation is anticipated to take less than one year.' OneWeb also said it has designed its satellite network to avoid collisions with space stations and debris, and that OneWeb 'will actively and regularly screen for conjunctions between its own satellites and other objects in the Joint Space Operations Center's ('JSpOC') published catalog."[42]

—- And Starlink’s:
The 60 Starlink v0.9 satellites, launched May 2019, have the following characteristics:[55]
   •   Hall-effect thrusters using krypton as the reaction mass, for position adjustment on orbit, altitude maintenance and deorbit
   •   Star tracker navigation system for precision pointing
   •   Able to use Department of Defense provided debris data to autonomously avoid collision.[90]
   •   95 percent of "all components of this design will quickly burn in Earth’s atmosphere at the end of each satellite’s lifecycle"

Servicing satellites is now a business:

Refuelling On-Orbital Satellites | SES

SpaceLogistics LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Northrop Grumman, provides cooperative in-orbit satellite servicing to geosynchronous satellite operators using its fleet of commercial servicing vehicles. Our initial servicing vehicle, the Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV)™ docks with customers’ existing satellites providing the propulsion and attitude control needed to extend their lives. ...
Our life extension services are compatible with virtually all geosynchronous satellites with minimal interruption to operations. They enable satellite operators to significantly extend satellite mission life, activate new markets, drive asset value and protect their franchises. SpaceLogistics delivers life extension services that are flexible, scalable, capital-efficient and low-risk.

Image below:  SpaceX Starship will enable satellite capture, service, and return to earth options.
(FYI, this is informally known as the “chomper” version of Starship. :) )

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 18, 2019, 11:21:20 PM »
For the record:  TSLA stock closed up for the ninth day in a row yesterday, an all-time record for the company.  The previous record was eight days, back in January 2013, when the stock was around $32.  (It closed down a bit today from around $260 yesterday, but is up now in aftermarket trading.)


Steve Jobs Ghost (@tesla_truth) 10/16/19, 12:28 PM
Smart $TSLAQ are starting to realize they were lied to.
TeslaCharts has openly admitted to selling them puts.
He knows he’s lying: It’s right in his bio.
So he’ll convince people to buy puts and make money selling them. Stealing the money right out of their pockets.
- as one ex $tslaq messaged me this morning:
“fool me once shame on you. fool me twice shame on me. Not falling for this bullshit any longer. i’m not stupid”

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 18, 2019, 08:16:14 PM »
Twitterati report:  Tesla inventory is zero in Germany, Netherlands, France, UK, Austria, New Zealand and just a few in Belgium & Switzerland.
Delivery times are going up in the U.S., EU, New Zealand; and a record number of ships are on the way….

( ...)

Price changes and performance updates:
Tesla Daily (@TeslaPodcast) 10/17/19, 3:11 AM
#Model3 U.S. Update:
•SR+: $38,990 -> $39,490 (+$500)
•SR+: Range 240mi -> 250mi (+10mi)
•Perf: $55,990 -> $56,990 (+$1,000)
•Black Paint: $750 -> $1,000 (+$250)
•NEW 20” Gray Performance Wheels
Delivery est. increased:
•SR+ 6-10wk
•AWD 6-10wk
•Perf 8-10wk
$TSLA #Bullish
(Picture of the new wheels at the link.)
Tesla also changed the order deposit to just $100 - but they made it non-refundable now.

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/17/19, 6:51 PM
Going offline for a few days

What are the odds he’s headed to China for Giga 3 opening celebration?  And maybe meeting with Boring Company China, which he missed during his last visit… but to be back at Tesla HQ for the financial results call on the 23rd...?

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 18, 2019, 02:34:59 AM »
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 10/17/19, 5:00 PM
Here are the 4 PM CDT Key Messages on Potential Tropical Cyclone #Sixteen. Latest information at:
Image below.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 18, 2019, 12:44:13 AM »
Beware of FUD.

Meanwhile, Matt Desch – CEO of Iridium, the owner and operator of one of the largest LEO constellations ever flown – stated that its Iridium NEXT satellites perform similar maneuvers weekly, without the need to “put out a press release to say who [Iridium] maneuvered around”. In simple terms, collision avoidance maneuvers are extremely common and extremelyroutine and are a fundamental part of operating satellites on orbit – be it one, ten, or ten thousand.

Matt Desch (@IridiumBoss) 9/2/19, 1:51 PM
Hmmm. We move our satellites on average once a week and don't put out a press release to say who we maneuvered around...

Edit: Starlink satellites are aware of their surroundings and will autonomously adjust their position to avoid collisions.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 18, 2019, 12:34:24 AM »
I think the various reports of “production has started” may refer to different levels/kinds of production. :)  There will be test production first, smoothing out difficulties in separate sections of the assembly line, before the whole process is ready.

Still, I would expect to have some sort of ceremony around the first official cars off the line.  But maybe that’s just me.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 17, 2019, 10:09:58 PM »
Tesla receives formal approval to begin Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3
China has given Tesla its formal approval to begin Model 3 production activities in Gigafactory 3. The announcement came amidst the release of a list from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, which included Tesla as one of the government’s sanctioned automotive manufacturers.
Fortunately for Tesla, the State Grid Corp of China has recently opened the first transmission line to Gigafactory 3 as well, providing ample power to the massive complex to support initial vehicle production activities. According to a Bloomberg report, State Grid has noted that it would be increasing the power supply for Gigafactory 3 as the facility becomes more complete and as its electric car manufacturing activities ramp up. State Grid further mentioned that its Gigafactory 3 project, which involved laying 55 km (34 miles) of cables and about 17 km (10 miles) of ducts, only took about six months, making it as one of the fastest projects that the company has undertaken to date. ...

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 17, 2019, 09:14:46 PM »
Capital Weather Gang on Twitter: "Bomb cyclone slams New England with 90 mph winds and 4+ inches of rain. Power was knocked out to >500,000 as the storm blew through, winds will stay gusty all day from D.C. to Maine.
Washington Post article:

Eric Fisher on Twitter: "Meteotsunami in Boston Harbor last night. Water spiked 4+ feet above normal tide. If this had hit during a high astro tide it would have set a new high water record
Image below.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 17, 2019, 03:04:27 PM »
Several other companies are working toward big LEO satellite constellations.  The question is who has the money, technology and launch capability to get there first.

SpaceX could upgrade Starlink constellation with tens of thousands of satellites
Filings and an official statement confirm that SpaceX could eventually build a Starlink internet constellation with tens of thousands of satellites, several times more than the company’s already ambitious plans.

“As demand escalates for fast, reliable internet around the world, especially for those where connectivity is non-existent, too expensive or unreliable, SpaceX is taking steps to responsibly scale Starlink’s total network capacity and data density to meet the growth in users’ anticipated needs.” 
SpaceX – October 15th, 2019

Uncovered through regulatory filings published on the International Telecommunications Union’s (ITU) eSubmission portal, the FCC filed documents hinting at plans for tens of thousands of new communications satellites. It was eventually confirmed by the ITU and eventually the company itself that SpaceX was behind the new filings, altogether accounting for up to 30,000 additional Starlink satellites.

Prior to this new filing, the ceiling for SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet constellation was set around 11,900 spacecraft – 4400 in several low Earth orbits (LEO) and another 7500 in very low orbit (VLEO). Put simply, even the most ardent supporters and potential benefactors of such a colossal satellite constellation have never taken those particular numbers all that seriously – 12,000 satellites is nearly six times as many operational spacecraft currently in orbit.

To build even a fraction as many satellites would take resources on the order of a small country without a revolution in satellite manufacturing and mass production. Assuming a cost as low as $5 million per satellite (more or less unprecedented), launching just the first 4400-satellite segment would cost SpaceX a minimum of $22 billion, while the full 11,900 would be more like $60 billion.

And yet, as improbable as it sounds next to today’s satellite production status quo, CEO Elon Musk indicated that SpaceX’s very first 60 Starlink prototypes – launch in May 2019 – cost less than the launch itself. This implies that the cost of each of those beta spacecraft was probably $1 million at most and likely closer to $500,000 apiece. Around that price point, launching thousands of relatively high-performance satellites becomes far more reasonable, even if the figures are still substantial.

4400 satellites would become ~$2 billion, while ~12,000 satellites would become $6 billion. Combined with SpaceX’s new ITU filings, the current maximum of ~42,000 satellites might cost something like $20 billion – a huge price tag, no doubt, but far from impossible. Important to note is that SpaceX almost certainly plans to begin drawing significant income from its Starlink constellation after as few as several hundred satellites have been launched. SpaceX has already raised more than $1 billion to get Starlink close to that point.

Also critical is the fact that building hundreds (let alone thousands) of satellites annually will allow SpaceX to tap into economies of scale quite literally unprecedented in the history of satellite manufacturing, meaning that it’s hard to accurately judge how low the per-satellite cost might eventually fall. Regardless, at the moment, SpaceX’s filings for an additional 30,000 possible satellites are undoubtedly more of an act of “just in case” than a sign of firm plans.

In the present, SpaceX has plans for as many as four additional Starlink v1.0 launches between now and the end of 2019, although it looks likely that that may shrink to 1-2 missions. The next Starlink mission (deemed Starlink 1) is expected no earlier than late-October or November.

SpaceX sees U.S. Army as possible customer for Starlink and Starship

SpaceX’s upcoming Starlink launch will set a record for Falcon 9 booster reuse
SpaceX has three (B1047 was expended on its third flight) thrice-flown Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters on hand, all of which can thus be assumed to be ready for another mission. In fact, B1046.3 is known to be assigned to SpaceX’s imminent Crew Dragon In-Flight Abort (IFA) test (NET November 23rd). ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 16, 2019, 09:09:28 PM »

Fire at the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage area, associated with the Saddle Ridge wildfire.  Reports of flames in the sewer system are not believed to be related. :o

L.A. County Fire Department (@LACoFDPIO) 10/16/19, 1:09 PM
#SaddleRidgeFire Morning *Update* for Wednesday October 16, 2019
Partial image below; more at the link.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: October 16, 2019, 08:17:40 PM »
The Florida panhandle still has not recovered from Hurricane Michael.  :'(

Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 10/16/19, 12:12 PM
12z GFS The most aggressive yet in developing a storm system in the Gulf of Mexico. While it may not be your classic looking tropical cyclone, the impacts would still be the same: heavy rain, wind and some coastal inundation possible.
Image below.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 16, 2019, 07:51:05 PM »
Near San Francisco, California.
Fortunately the tanks that collapsed were nearly empty. Some moderate earthquake activity in the region recently.

[Updated] Explosion and Fire At Crockett Oil Refinery Shuts Down I-80

Massive fire erupts at Bay Area oil refinery.
Contra Costa County Fire: Flames, black smoke at NuStar energy facility

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 16, 2019, 05:30:10 PM »
Approximately the same timeline was estimated (upthread) because Model 3 production began about three months after production candidates were seen in the wild.  And close watchers of Tesla execs during last spring’s stockholder meeting saw them exchange knowing looks when Elon mentioned the later date....

”With the Model Y, I am willing to bet that Elon’s timeline for starting Model Y manufacturing was around the end of 2019, and after a lot of convincing from was persuaded to say Q1 2021 on stage — for the first time separating internal targets from public ones.”

Breaking! Tesla Model Y Production To Start ~Q1 2020 (Unofficial Leak)
October 15th, 2019
This information is going to cause some controversy, because everything we knew, or thought we knew, about Tesla’s Model Y timeline is about to change. Originally, the Model Y was supposed to start shipping in “late 2020.” Currently, Tesla’s website says new orders will ship in Q1 2021. However, according to an anonymous source with a proven and reliable track record, Tesla is about to accelerate its plans and start production sometime around Q1 2020 at its Fremont factory. (We’ve also received the same information independently through a second-hand source.) ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Bikes, bikes, bikes and more...bikes
« on: October 16, 2019, 05:06:24 PM »
Victor (@VictorPontis) 10/15/19, 10:56 AM
Today is the scooter switch over in San Francisco!

Scoot + Skip  →  Scoot (Bird) + JUMP (Uber) + Lime + Spin

Let the games begin again!
- You can use @scootermapapp to find the closest scooter!
< God help you all
<< Which scooter company do you think will fare best in SF?
- Scoot (Bird) then Lime
<< Interesting. Here in Chicago I've been quite impressed with Lime's operations. They seem to be the most creative, proactive company in terms of brand marketing.
< What do you think Lime is doing better than other scooter companies in terms of branding?
<< well here in Chicago they just let a reporter ride along with their employees in their van to write a profile about the work they do deploying and picking up scooters. most of the other companies would be too scared to let a reporter go behind the scenes.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 16, 2019, 04:27:03 PM »
Ouch. The new Porsche Taycan 4S model:
Image below.
- 133 miles of WLTP range is 118 miles EPA range
- by the way this is Porsche’s own website
the real world range is probably much worse

Earl of Frunkpuppy (@28delayslater) 10/15/19, 8:02 AM
Things that will slow down EV transition - high priced / low range poor offerings by automakers with no charging network

Things that won’t slow down the EV transition - tweeting about how traditional automakers are making high priced / low range cars with no charging network

João Neves (@JooNeve25482012) 10/15/19, 6:15 PM
@GuyT3sla   A few days ago a family with two young kids approached me in a street charger. They were driving a brand new I-Pace. They needed to charge but they were still waiting for the key-card that activates the charger to be sent to them... So they were hopelessly stranded... I pity
 them so I just let them use my card so they could charge. They didn’t know how to do it... I know, I been there. I helped the the best I could, not easy. It is a quite complex procedure for an I-Pace... but hey! They were happily proud. The kids: hey mister this is a Jaguar!!!
- So the point is: let them be. We need more BEVs on the streets and not all will be a Tesla. Given the short timeline to keep climate crisis under wraps we need more electric cars out there, a whole lot more! And Tesla alone can’t do it! So...

Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: October 16, 2019, 03:59:44 PM »
... "For a space station or a lunar habitat, these robots would live on the structure, continuously maintaining and repairing it," says Jenett.

That was my first thought.  ;) :)  Autonomous constructor-bots are planned for the next-generation space habitats, such as Von Braun Station.  ( )

But such robots could also be included on uncrewed missions to the moon and Mars, where they could set up a field of solar panels (and on Mars, help keep them clean) and begin constuction of habitats.  Monitoring their progress from earth would assist in assuring sustainability of future crewed missions.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 16, 2019, 03:11:17 PM »
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/16/19, 8:20 AM
@Teslarati The final configuration used at Nürburgring to set the record will go into production around summer 2020, so this is not merely for the track

Tesla Model S Plaid hits Nürburgring in refreshed widebody with massive rear diffuser
Tesla has returned to the Nürburgring with a Model S Plaid Powertrain, sporting a refreshed aerodynamic package that includes the addition of side vents and a massive rear diffuser. The California-based electric carmaker is back at the famed German race circuit in an attempt to break its own lap record of 7:23 set last month.

With high hopes to push closer to a low 7-minute lap time this time around, Tesla’s tri-motor prototype with a newly refreshed and performance-oriented body kit is expected to further distance itself from rival Porsche Taycan in track performance. ...

Photo below from:

And the antithesis of sustained acceleration?  Is stopping sudden unintended acceleration.  Teslas have a setting for that, too.

A study by the NHTSA discovered that accidental engagement of the accelerator pedal causes around 16,000 preventable accidents a year in the US. These accidents happen when a driver thinks they are stepping on the brake pedal but are in fact stepping on the accelerator or on both pedals. Also, they found these incidents happen at low speeds, such as when parking.

A Quick Look At Tesla’s Obstacle-Aware Acceleration
What is obstacle-aware acceleration? The name implies what it does, and it’s one of Tesla’s many features that actually prevents minor accidents when enabled. Now You Know shows a quick comparison in the video below of how it works — with it enabled and disabled.

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 16, 2019, 02:46:45 PM »
SpaceX is developing not one but two variants of the Raptor rocket engine: one optimized for use in the atmosphere, and one optimized for the vacuum of space.

Vacuum engines need such large and unwieldy nozzles in order to make them as efficient as possible. In a very simplistic sense, a rocket engine nozzle directs the flow of superheated, ultrafast gases in order to squeeze as much momentum transfer as possible. The lower the pressure of the surrounding atmosphere is, the more those gases will expand immediately after leaving the nozzle – giant vacuum nozzles simply try to harness the additional momentum available from that extra expansion.
This is why rocket exhausts appear to spread and thin out as launch vehicles reach higher and higher altitudes.

SpaceX’s Starship Raptor Vacuum engine plans laid out by CEO Elon Musk
October 16, 2019
Elon Musk says that SpaceX Starship engine upgrades are on track to begin static fire tests of a Raptor Vacuum variant as few as a “couple months” from now.

Designed to enable more efficient performance in thin atmosphere or vacuum, Musk admitted that the first version(s) of Raptor Vacuum (RVac) will likely be a compromise between efficiency and speed of development. Nevertheless, the faster SpaceX can prepare Raptor Vacuum for flight, the easier it will be for Starship to begin serious (sub)orbital flight tests.

SpaceX’s Raptor is the first Full Flow, Staged Combustion Cycle rocket engine to have ever flown.  Learn more about it here:,2582.msg201113/topicseen.html#msg201113

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 16, 2019, 02:10:06 AM »
Boca Chica Launch site preparations:
SPadre (@SpacePadreIsle) 10/15/19, 2:16 PM
Starship launch pad progress Tuesday Oct 15
30 sec video
SPadre (@SpacePadreIsle) 10/15/19, 2:18 PM
Boca Chica launch pad Tues Oct 15 update
30 sec video
SPadre (@SpacePadreIsle) 10/15/19, 2:33 PM
Photo below; more at the link.

SpaceX begins launch pad upgrades for Starship flight tests in Texas and Florida

SpaceX is building Starship’s East Coast launch site at a breakneck pace

Elon Musk wants to move fast with SpaceX’s Starship

The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: October 16, 2019, 01:28:02 AM »
• The Starship design is massively different from Starhopper!  Starship Mk1 has separate moveable “fins” near the nose and tail and 6 legs bolted to the body of the rocket.  Starhopper will never fly again; however it is expected to be used as a Raptor engine test platform.

Starship photo below from:

• Mk1 has been partially disassembled since the presentation, and is being fitted with engines, plumbing, et. in preparation for its first flight.  Boca Chica road closures have been posted for October 23-25 (probably for tank tests).
The FCC communications permit for the 20km flight has also been filed. 

• Mk2 progress continues in Florida.  Gorgeous new rings, made from a single piece of 301 stainless steel, with a single weld, are being built.
Marek Cyzio (@MarekCyzio) 10/12/19, 8:59 AM
Photo below.

• Lots of construction underway during SpaceX’s current launch hiatus, preparing Launch Complex 39A for Starship:
Julia (@julia_bergeron) 10/12/19, 12:16 PM
Cement trucks were a common theme in space facility builds today. Fresh cement at the #Starship #39A build could be seen. In the 2nd photo it looks like the landing zone area near the camera pad is progressing. I believe the launch base will be closer to todays cement work.
Photos at the link.

• The SpaceX ocean fleet is being upgraded to handle the upcoming increased launch cadence:

SpaceX preparing to catch two Falcon 9 fairings at once with twin net-carrying ships

Elon Musk says SpaceX is still building a third drone ship – but is it for Falcon or Starship?

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 15, 2019, 10:27:27 PM »
Google Translate?

Yes and there are few turns but by reading it i thought it well enough translated to not having to rewrite it from scratch.

Does it matter would be my question because if non-perfect translations are not welcome I won't post any anymore, I thought this could be welcome because it goes non only into the right direction of a tech-mix depending on use cases but it's also something i'm preaching for years to all the on sided and/or narrow minded folks who choose and favour one approach, make it a religion and
discard any other, often under false pretenses.

Last question, just in case that it's ok to use google translator to translate lengthy text, why mention it, it sounds a bit condescending while for me translating tools are a gift for better sharing across language barriers.

Neven may feel differently, but I think:
- Google translate is ok, but mention that’s what was used
- always supply the original-language link, so readers know where the information came from, and can use their own translator if they wish (or read in the original language!)
- additionally posting the google-translate link itself is optional, but is nice if it is not too cumbersome (very long).

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 15, 2019, 10:18:11 PM »
Tesla’s Autopilot Could Save the Lives of Millions, But It Will Kill Some People First
The complicated ethics of Elon Musk’s grand autonomous vehicle experiment.
Computer mistakes don’t look like human mistakes. Autopilot has lightning reflexes and its attention never flags, but it sometimes fails to spot hazards in its path. Such oversights appear to have played a role in four of five known fatalities since Autopilot was introduced in 2015. Banner’s wreck, in fact, bore an uncanny resemblance to an earlier one. In August, Banner’s estate sued Tesla under Florida’s Wrongful Death Act. The estate’s argument is a straightforward product-liability claim: Tesla promised a safe car and delivered a dangerously defective one.

But Autopilot is unlike almost any other consumer product in history, in ways that offer a preview of the uncomfortable questions we’ll confront in the dawning robot age. Tesla’s flamboyant chief executive officer, Elon Musk, says the technology saves lives, and legions of Tesla owners offer their own testimonies of hazards spotted and collisions avoided. (And they have YouTube videos to prove it.) It’s possible that both sides are right, that the computers are killing a few drivers who otherwise would have lived, but that they’re also saving the lives of many more. In the coming years, society—in particular, regulators and the courts—will have to decide whether that’s an acceptable trade-off.

The question is no longer academic. Musk’s decision to put Autopilot in the hands of as many people as possible amounts to an enormous experiment, playing out on freeways all over the world. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Ships and boats
« on: October 15, 2019, 09:21:36 PM »
“Here’s a question for you: why did the US Office of Fossil Energy tweet out a Happy Columbus Day message on Columbus Day? Who knows! Whatever the motive, they did remind everybody that Columbus traveled across the seas, which doesn’t have much to do with fossil energy. However, the topic of seacraft does call to mind that fossil energy is on the verge of losing its grip on the global cargo shipping sector, partly because a new wind power renaissance is taking hold.”

Wind Power Returns To Oceangoing Cargo Ships, Finally

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 15, 2019, 09:02:04 PM »
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 10/15/19, 3:19 AM
Tesla China is now expanding the delivery team!!
Recruitment day Oct 19th, in city of Beijing, Shanghai & Shenzhen
Hmmm... it’s getting ready for
__ __ __ __ __ (plz fill in the blanks)

$TSLA #Tesla #China
[chinese text images at the link]
KP: Those must be fake job listings to throw everyone off because TSLAQ told me there will be no China factory production anytime soon.  ::) ;D
PP:  According to business insider it's still a mud field with some digging going on. Somebody needs to update that article.
< Bankwuptcy?
<< Production hell  ;D

Ray4Tesla (@ray4tesla) 10/14/19, 10:52 AM
Just released China insurance registration record indicates #Model3 is the sales champ among all EVs in #China, totaling 4272 in Sept. Here is the chart showing Model 3 vs X vs S vs NIO vs BYD vs Marvel. Looks like Model S needs refresh to boost sales. Source: 董买买
[Image below.]
Ming Chen:  When you can afford to buy a S you buy a X in China. No refresh will help.
R4T: Other than its poor financials of NIO, ES6 is pretty decent in every respect.
< Forget everything else. There's a car called the Marvel X? Is @Marvel aware of it?
< It's a cool name, just the car doesn't look as cool. They should sue them for not making good use of the name.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 15, 2019, 08:20:56 PM »
For folks in wheelchairs, filling the tank at a gas station is a major inconvenience — making the ability to charge at home a much-appreciated feature of EVs. And Tesla’s Summon capability stands out as potentially the most helpful.  Video at the link.

Tesla Smart Summon proves useful for wheelchair users

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 15, 2019, 08:00:47 PM »
Here is more on the study quoted in Reply #703 above.  (Generation Z are those born between 1995-2012.)
Gen Z is leading the charge on EVs.
While several EV-focused Gen Z studies... suggested Gen Zers didn’t intend to purchase EVs, West Monroe’s study found that, in practice, they are. One-third of Gen Z vehicle owners surveyed by West Monroe currently own an electric vehicle, notably more than any other generation (19% of millennials, 14% of Gen Xers and 6% of Baby Boomers). Gen Z is also most likely to consider employer-sponsored benefits that reward sustainable practices as “extremely important” in their selection of where to work.

Among business owners who’ve integrated EVs into their fleet, half report that EVs now constitute 50% or more of their total fleet
Study data, in chart form: 
WestMonroe Partners — STUDY:

2020 Chevrolet Bolt EV: How GM’s only electric car stacks up after 3 years
Its range has risen from 238 to 259 miles, from a battery pack whose energy capacity is up from 60 to 66 kilowatt-hours, due to the use of a new and more energy-dense lithium-ion cell from LG Chem.

There is some hope for those who’d like a more competitive Bolt EV. Recent spy shots published by other outlets have indicated the 2021 Chevrolet Bolt EV might get revised seats, dashboard, and exterior styling, and perhaps other changes under the skin as well.

… GM has sold about the same number of Bolt EVs as it did Chevrolet Volt plug-in hybrids: roughly 20,000 per year. A cynic might say that’s the number required to keep GM in regulatory compliance in the growing number of states with zero-emission vehicle sales mandates—led, of course, by California. …

Even the biased business media are starting to understand.
Cheaper Porsche Taycan 4S Is Not A Tesla Killer: Here's Why

It’s a personal bankruptcy, not the Faraday Future company.  If that matters.
The man who wanted to challenge Tesla is bankrupt

Political concerns? Of course.  But how much of the decision was simply because VW can’t afford to spend that money right now?
Volkswagen postpones decision on $1.4billion Turkey car plant
Ankara: Volkswagen AG’s management board has decided to delay a decision on giving the go-ahead on a 1.3 billion-euro ($1.4 billion) car plant due to the political upheaval caused by the country’s military action in northern Syria.

The planned Turkey investment, which would expand VW’s total number of factories worldwide to 123, would bundle production of the VW Passat and Skoda Superb mid-sized sedans in a move to create a bridgehead to grow sales across Eastern Europe and the Middle East. The world’s biggest carmaker has struggled to compete with Asian rivals in those markets due to high manufacturing cost at its factories in Western Europe.

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: October 15, 2019, 06:15:24 PM »
Ban air miles to combat climate crisis, recommends UK research
Air miles programs should be banned and a levy on frequent flyers implemented in order to reduce carbon emissions from aviation, according to new research.
"Flying is a uniquely high-impact activity and is the quickest and cheapest way for a consumer to increase their carbon footprint," the report says.

Air miles programs encourage people to take extra flights to keep up their "privileged traveler status" and should be banned, according to the report.

So-called "mileage runs" are a common way for travelers to top up their points in order to maintain access to perks such as priority boarding.
An air miles levy would be based on the number of miles flown by each passenger, penalizing those who fly the most while leaving the majority of people unaffected.

Research shows that 15% of the UK population take 70% of flights, and these travelers -- who tend to be wealthier and less price-sensitive -- would shoulder most of the burden. By way of comparison, 50% of Britons don't fly at all in any one year.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 15, 2019, 05:18:55 PM »
Electric cars are the future.

EVs are state of the art.

Solar cars are the future, Griff.  8)

And then there’s whatever this is.
(Thank goodness Elon doesn’t like the idea of flying cars.  Whew!)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 15, 2019, 05:11:59 PM »
Tesla Model Y spotted with chrome trim, new wheels near Fremont factory
Photo below.  TSLAQ on Twitter are already crying: Fwaud!  ;D

Tesla to start Powerwall home battery installations in Japan

Powerwall should sell well in Japan, and not just because of several years of reservations. ;) The country has been electricity-constrained since the Fukishima disaster, when they shut down all nuclear reactors for safety reasons (although some have restarted).  My personal feeling is that such experience was one reason Toyota and Honda shied away from developing pure electric vehicles.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 15, 2019, 05:06:52 PM »
Addition to the “IQ” discussion :) :

“The first rule of Dunning-Kruger club:  You do not know you are a member of the Dunning-Kruger Club.”
Ramen  ;D

Does GA stand for General Assembly in Mandarin?
JC - Just Curious

No, it would be more like this:  一般修建    :)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 15, 2019, 02:35:40 PM »
Mystery solved: These doors are labelled “GA Dock”
(As in, “General Assembly.”)

Jay in Shanghai (@JayinShanghai) 10/14/19, 10:52 AM
More photos of Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory 3.
#Tesla #TeslaChina #GF3 #Gigafactory #特斯拉 #中国 $TSLA
Photo below. Another at the link.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 15, 2019, 02:30:37 PM »
Addition to the “IQ” discussion :) :

“The first rule of Dunning-Kruger club:  You do not know you are a member of the Dunning-Kruger Club.”

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 15, 2019, 02:33:44 AM »
“Miami Water Homes” becoming a bit too literal. :o
John Morales (@JohnMoralesNBC6) 10/13/19, 10:24 AM
This guy is getting a lot of free publicity from me. But here we go again, with sunny day saltwater flooding in Miami. And it’s not even the #kingtide
#MiamiWaterHomes #sealevelrise #SaltLife
Image below; video clip at the link.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 15, 2019, 01:50:56 AM »
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 10/14/19, 1:12 PM
Source from my anonymous follower:
Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory GF3 will start production of the Made in China Model 3 in days.

$TSLA #Tesla #China #TeslaChina

Tesla construction speed breaks its own record
US electric carmaker Tesla has started building a battery factory in Shanghai after wrapping up construction of its Phase-1 factory complex, where the cars will be assembled, and it aims to finish the second facility more quickly.

A battery plant will be built on the site, a person close to the Gigafactory 3's construction team surnamed Li told the Global Times. The battery factory will be built more quickly than the Phase-1 area, as it took only a few weeks for workers to erect pillars and roof trusses for Phase-2, while erecting roof trusses in the Phase-1 area took months, according to media reports.

Feng Shiming, a veteran car industry analyst, told the Global Times on Monday that the first batch of vehicle batteries would be fully assembled at the Shanghai factory on October 30, based on what he had heard from some Tesla employees.

The company is also pushing forward with production of its Model 3s. According to a report by on Sunday, there has been general speculation in the market that Tesla will begin production at the Gigafactory 3 this week. Tesla hadn't clarified its production plans to the Global Times as of press time.

Li said that the production lines are complete and Tesla is debugging the equipment. He also said that recently, he saw Tesla cars running on test tracks near the factory.

He said he didn't know the exact start of production time.
The factory built in the first phase will merely assemble parts shipped from the US*, Feng said. ...

* This is as I expected.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 14, 2019, 09:36:00 PM »
Founder of Electric Vehicle Startup Faraday Future Files for Bankruptcy
October 14, 2019,
Jia Yueting, an entrepreneur who ran up billions of dollars in personal debts trying to build a business empire in China, has filed for bankruptcy in the U.S. with plans to turn over his latest venture, an electric vehicle startup, to creditors.

In a proposed debt-restructuring plan filed in federal court in Wilmington, Delaware, Jia will use his ownership stake in Los Angeles-based Faraday & Future Inc. to set up a creditor trust to repay his debts.

Jia faces $2.3 billion in claims, according to the plan. In a statement on Faraday’s website, the company said Jia’s debts were owed to creditors in China.

The plan is also designed to help Faraday put together “equity financing efforts and prepare for an IPO,” according to the statement. Depending on the value of that proposed initial public offering, creditors may recover from 49% to 100% of what they are owed, according to reorganization plan documents filed in court.

Faraday is trying to develop an electric vehicle for sale in the U.S. and China. The company recently hired Carsten Breitfeld, BMW AG veteran, to take over the chief executive officer role from Jia. …

In his bankruptcy filing, Jia warned that his IPO plans for Faraday may not raise as much as projected. That was due in part to “negative press related to his debts and an investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission into the delisting from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange” of a company where Jia served as chief executive officer.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 14, 2019, 09:02:51 PM »
Economic impact of UAW strike balloons
October 13, 2019
DETROIT — Damage from the UAW's nearly monthlong strike against General Motors goes far beyond the plants that have been surrounded by picket lines, and recovery after it ends could take significant time for the dealerships, suppliers and other employers that depend on GM. Some small businesses have warned they're in danger of failing from the lost revenue.

By the end of last week, some 150,000 workers either had been laid off or had their pay reduced as the walkout "ballooned in scope," Anderson Economic Group said. The Michigan consulting firm's figure includes 75,000 supplier employees and 25,000 GM salaried workers. But it doesn't account for restaurants and shops in factory towns that are seeing sales slump as GM workers adjust to living on just $250 a week in strike pay.

Dealers had to tell irritated customers that some repairs couldn't be done because parts weren't available. ...

Workers have been laid off at suppliers including Adient, Cooper-Standard, American Axle & Manufacturing, Lear Corp., Magna, ZF North American, Busche Performance Products, Android Industries and others.

Phoenix Transit & Logistics, a trucking company in Dearborn, Mich., laid off almost its entire staff, owner Wael Tlaib told The New York Times. Tlaib said he pulled from his personal savings to keep the company running and was afraid he could lose the business as early as this week, the newspaper reported.

A manager at a Michigan supplier that has laid off more than half of its work force because of the strike told Automotive News that Anderson Economic Group's estimate of 75,000 supplier layoffs as of last week might be understated. The vast majority of the supplier's business is from GM. ...

The strike has already cost the company more than $1 billion.
“Credit Suisse estimated the loss could hit about $1.5 billion, and the Center for Automotive Research estimated the weekly costs to GM and the UAW strike fund at $450 million and $12 million, respectively.”
GM appeals directly to employees as strike losses mount, riling UAW

“GM’s current bond ratings (Moody’s: Baa3, S&P: BBB) sit in the last rung of the investment grade category. A move into junk status would materially increase GM’s funding costs, and an extended strike could be just what it takes for the ratings agencies to pull that trigger.”
GM’s Multiple Giveaways To The UAW Will Hamper Its Creditworthiness For Years To Come

Will GM CEO Mary Barra survive this?  Will the company give in to UAW anti-EV demands that would lead GM even more quickly to obsolescence?  And those failing suppliers support manufacturers other than GM....

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 14, 2019, 05:07:00 PM »
Tesla Driver (@M_xalher) 10/13/19, 4:48 AM
Norway ministry of environment today says to DN business daily:
- EV benefits likely to continue in 2021 and beyond
- Will be “extremely careful” not to disturb current “exponential growth” of EV adaption.
Via Google translate:
Since 2010, Norway's population has increased by more than 440,000 people, while the diesel and gasoline car park has only increased by 13,000 cars. In the same period, the electric car park has gone from 2,000 cars in 2010 - to 250,000 cars today.

For the first time since 2010, diesel car sales are now also declining. In September, three out of four cars sold were either zero or low emission cars. This shows figures from the Norwegian Public Roads Administration and Statistics Norway.

Read also:  This year's electric car sales have already passed last year

- Up until now, it has been seen that many people buy an electric car as the number two car, but it has a short reach and they have kept their fossil car. Now we hear from many that they buy only electric car, and it is also shown in the statistics that it will be the primary car for many families, says Rotevatn.

The Government has a goal that all new passenger cars will be zero emission vehicles in 2025.
- There is exponential growth in the electric car market. So if it continues like now, then we will be in goal well before 2025, says Rotevatn.

Protected policy
Today's favorable electric car regime is protected in the government declaration until 2021. ...


ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 10/14/19, 7:12 AM
Porsche releasing the base-model Taycan only five weeks after the higher-end models can only mean one thing...

Go all EVs etc etc.
[ /sarc ]
Tesla Driver  (@M_xalher) 10/14/19, 8:07 AM
Porsche Norway told DN business daily today that they have sold less than 300 Taycans. They expect more to sign up for the new “cheaper” version, but with normal extras it is still over NOK 1 million, so significantly above Model S.
Google translate:  “Only two Taycan are registered in Norway so far….”


Uniti announces $19,600 price for its small crowdfunded electric car, updates specs

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: October 14, 2019, 03:24:29 PM »
Wow, TSLAQ is fading fast.  Even GSY realizes his arguments are fruitless, and gets out now.  Nothing succeeds like success!

Obligatory link ;) :
Tesla FUD: I Was Wrong

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 14, 2019, 03:06:51 PM »
Mass-producing cars is hard!  Longread on the Dyson EV story.

It started with a dream in 1993 and ended due to economic uncertainty in 2019. This is how Dyson’s attempt to compete with Tesla foundered.

Inside the collapse of Dyson's electric car dream
The economics never added up. “What Dyson underestimated is the difficulty of getting into the car industry,” says Bailey. “There are significant sunk costs and very high capital costs.”

While the company reportedly set aside some £2.5 billion for the electric vehicle project, that pales into comparison with the £50 billion-plus Volkswagen is spending on producing its own electric vehicle – and it has pre-existing experience designing and manufacturing cars. Volkswagen has even recognised that amount isn’t enough, partnering with Ford to share costs and collaborate on ideas. “I think Dyson hugely underestimated what it costs,” Bailey adds. ...

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 14, 2019, 03:04:14 PM »
Sig, VW is just following the EU government's.

The most high profile failures in the UK, recently, all have massively underfunded pension funds.

Governments allowed them to defer the payments and like good corporates they paid dividend out of workers pension contributions.

Who do you blame? The government's for allowing it or the companies for doing what the government's allow.

I’m not blaming anyone.  But as you say, there are signs that VW could be the next “high profile failure.”  Meaning the government will need to step in — at which point, pensions will hardly be their top concern.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 14, 2019, 03:22:08 AM »
Northeast coast of the U.S.

Wind driven high tides flooding New Jersey Shore
Oct 11, 2019 | 11:15 AM
High tides and strong winds caused flooding in some parts of the New Jersey shore Friday.

No major problems were reported. But Sea Bright's fire department conducted numerous rescues of people who had become stranded in flood waters overnight Thursday into Friday morning in the particularly flood-prone community, which is wedged between the ocean and the Shrewsbury River.

Ocean City and Ventnor opened schools two hours late Friday to let flood waters subside before parents and school buses tried to navigate the roadways. And Wildwood closed a bridge into the city during the morning high tide.

Parts of Long Beach Boulevard, the main road through Long Beach Island, also were impassible Friday morning because of flooding. ...

For Jersey Shore homeowners, hurricane and flood threats are worth the risk

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