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Messages - Sigmetnow

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: June 26, 2019, 07:04:32 PM »
More:
Quote
Bloomberg (@business) 6/26/19, 11:53 AM
The Philadelphia refinery that caught fire after an explosion last week will be permanently shut down. It's the biggest gas refinery on the East Coast bloom.bg/2Nfvxju
https://twitter.com/business/status/1143910048273457152

”The loss of the refinery will likely increase the region’s dependence on supplies from Canada, Europe and the Gulf Coast, potentially boosting prices for drivers and profit margins for the remaining plants in the area.”
Biggest East Coast Refinery to Close, Driving Up Fuel Prices
Quote
      • Massive explosion this month crippled operations at PES
      • Philadelphia refinery emerged from bankruptcy 10 months ago

The biggest refinery on the U.S. East Coast will shut down, after a massive explosion and fire crippled operations at a site that has helped fuel the region for 153 years.

The Philadelphia Energy Solutions Inc. complex on the banks of the Schuylkill and Delaware Rivers in Pennsylvania has been in place since 1866, a year after the Civil War ended. It emerged from bankruptcy just 10 months prior to two fires in June that closed down key gasoline-making units just as the summer driving season gears up.

Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney said Wednesday the refinery will close within the next month. The complex produces 335,000 barrels a day, meeting about 3% of gasoline demand in a densely populated region. Futures in New York jumped more than 5% on a Reuters report Tuesday night that the refinery would close. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-26/biggest-east-coast-refinery-to-close-driving-up-gasoline-prices

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 24, 2019, 09:52:32 PM »
Quote
Sam Korus (@skorusARK) 6/24/19, 2:42 PM
GE is shutting down a power plant 20 years early b/c it is uneconomic to run.
According to EIA data the plant's capacity utilization was ~6%. ...
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1143227839493431296

The Addressable Market for Utility Energy Storage Could Scale to $800 Billion
Quote
Elon Musk has stated that Tesla’s energy storage business will be as large as its car business in the long-term.1 ARK’s research shows that foregoing planned gas peaker plants and replacing them with utility scale energy storage could generate roughly $10 billion in revenues per year, more than six times Tesla’s $1.5 billion utility energy storage revenue in 2018. As battery costs continue to fall during the next five to ten years, the global addressable market for utility energy storage should expand to $800 billion.

Last July, California utility PG&E proposed four energy storage projects to replace natural gas plants in the South Bay.2 Two of these projects are the largest utility energy storage projects ever proposed – 1,200MWh and 730MWh – dwarfing the current record holder, Tesla’s 129MWh battery in Australia. As battery costs continue to fall, utility energy storage will begin to compete with existing natural gas peaker plants, reaching a price point that will motivate utilities to shut down underutilized plants.

The chart below compares the cost of electricity from natural gas peaker plants to the cost of electricity from battery-based energy storage, with two scenarios highlighted. The brown circle illustrates the scenario we face today: the average natural gas peaker plant is utilized ~10% of the time in the U.S. resulting in a levelized electricity cost of ~$0.14/kWh.3 The red lines show ARK’s forecast: utility energy storage battery costs should drop from $400/kWh to $150/kWh in the next five years, which results in an electricity cost of ~$0.09/kWh, undercutting the cost of natural gas plants that operate 25% of the time or less.

Energy storage solutions should be able to compete for all future peaker plant additions. Economically, battery solutions already are competitive with new natural gas plants.  Because increases in capacity will be offset by battery cost declines, the addressable market in the U.S. should remain at roughly $10-12 billion per year....
https://ark-invest.com/research/utility-energy-storage

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 24, 2019, 09:33:09 PM »
Astounding price. 5 US cents / kwh, for a capacity factor likely > 50%. This is just over half the price that the IEA thought offshore wind reach by *2050* just a couple years ago.

Offshore wind is on path to be both cheaper and higher capacity factor than onshore.

Dunkirk Strike Price Is EUR 44/MWh
The Dunkirk offshore wind farm will deliver electricity to the French national grid at a strike price of EUR 44/MWh, Commission de régulation de l'énergie (CRE) has revealed
Quote
The commissioning of the wind farm is expected in 2022.
The strike price for this tender was initially expected to be below EUR 70/MWh.
The results of the Dunkirk tender have prompted France to increase its offshore wind tendering target to 1GW per year until 2028.
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2019/06/20/dunkirk-strike-price-is-eur-44-mwh/

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 24, 2019, 07:31:07 PM »
CleanTechnica has compiled an excellent page of Tesla facts and links.

“Responses to Common Tesla Myths”

Tesla Myths & FAQ
https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-myths-faq/

5
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: June 24, 2019, 06:38:47 PM »
Falcon Heavy Launch tonight!
June 24/25   Falcon Heavy • STP-2
Launch window: 0330-0730 GMT on 25th (11:30 p.m.-3:30 a.m. EDT on 24th/25th)
Launch site: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida
A SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket will launch the U.S. Air Force’s Space Test Program-2 mission with a cluster of military and scientific research satellites. The heavy-lift rocket is formed of three Falcon 9 rocket cores strapped together with 27 Merlin 1D engines firing at liftoff.
Quote
On its third flight Monday night, SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket will fly to three different orbits with two dozen spacecraft on a mission set to last more than six hours, prompting SpaceX founder Elon Musk to declare it the company’s “most difficult launch ever.”
https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/06/23/falcon-heavy-to-flex-muscles-on-demanding-demo-launch-for-u-s-air-force/


————  SpaceX Starship: Raptor engine update
Elon Musk:
Quote
[Raptor engine #6] almost done. Aiming for an engine every 12 hours by end of year.

Since Raptor produces 200 tons of force, cost per ton would be $1000. However, Raptor is designed for ~1000 flights with negligible maintenance, so cost per ton over time would actually be ~$1.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1143040289587814400

Quote
Edit: more:

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 6/24/19, 8:07 AM Other rocket engines were designed for no (or almost no) reuse. Raptor is designed for heavy & immediate reuse, like an aircraft jet engine, with inspections required only after many flights, assuming instrumentation shows it good. Using hydrostatic bearings certainly helps.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1143128635525799936
< How many flights is the Merlin actually good for with no major refurbishment now that you’ve reflown it so many times? Is the bearing the limiting factor? Or is it the coking?
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)6/24/19, 12:33 PM
Merlin could probably do 1000 flights too. Turbine blade fatigue cracking would require periodic weld repair or replacement. Probably some seals & bearings as well. Coking not really an issue.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1143195449425321984

Elon Musk Teases Rapid, Cheap Raptor Production to Get to Mars Fast   
https://www.inverse.com/article/56999-spacex-elon-musk-teases-rapid-cheap-raptor-production-to-get-to-mars-fast

———-
Photos below:
Quote
Space Coast Life (@SpaceCoast_Life) 6/22/19, 2:42 PM
New photo of Starship orbital on east coast, Cocoa,Fl. Looking like a sleek bullet. Photos taken by ?
https://twitter.com/spacecoast_life/status/1142503126076928000
Photo below.

Falcon Heavy photo:
https://twitter.com/_tomcross_/status/1140356115454029824

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 24, 2019, 01:36:26 AM »
... (I did read an article on how cats are worse than coal (or anything else) in killing birds.)

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service agrees: cats are the worst.

https://www.fws.gov/birds/bird-enthusiasts/threats-to-birds.php

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: June 24, 2019, 01:16:22 AM »
Africa:  Tesla Powerwall 2 batteries located at mobile phone towers help keep vital banking services on-line, especially now that the grid is experiencing local blackouts due to aging diesel generators, and hydropower is weakened by drought.  Powerwall communications can control solar/grid charging, and even deactivate batteries in case of theft from remote locations.

520 Tesla Powerwalls To Be Used In Largest Rollout Of AC-Coupled Li-ion Batteries In Telecoms Sector
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/22/520-tesla-powerwalls-largest-rollout-of-ac-coupled-li-ion-batteries-in-telecoms-sector-africa/

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: June 23, 2019, 10:03:54 PM »
Had to double-check the date.  Yes, these are new emissions recalls. >:(

June 22, 2019
Daimler to recall 60,000 Mercedes diesels in Germany over emissions
Quote
(Reuters) - Daimler must recall 60,000 Mercedes diesel cars in Germany after regulators found that they were fitted with software aimed at distorting emissions tests, the Transportation Ministry said on Saturday.
The model affected is the Mercedes-Benz GLK 220 produced between 2012 and 2015.
Daimler confirmed that the recall was ordered on Friday but said that it would appeal against the decision while continuing to cooperate with regulators.
The ministry said that it was expanding its investigation into further models.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1TN0E8

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: June 23, 2019, 09:17:25 PM »
Tesla Powerwall owners can now earn up to $1,000 per year with National Grid's virtual power plant
Quote
“National Grid customers in Massachusetts or Rhode Island can now enroll their Powerwall in ConnectedSolutions, a program that links batteries across the state together to create a large supply of sustainable energy to be used during peak demand.”
https://electrek.co/2019/06/21/tesla-powerwall-earn-national-grid-virtual-power-plant/

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 23, 2019, 09:10:20 PM »
Cleantechnica interview.

Our Interview With Tesla President Jerome Guillen, Part Deux
Quote
We then slid into a chat about Tesla’s lessons from scaling up production of a truly mass-market, high-production vehicle. He noted that the Model 3 body was still super complex, “like origami,” something we’ve heard Elon Musk discuss more specifically in a recent interview with Ryan McCaffrey for his “Ride the Lighting” podcast. Kyle summarized Elon’s comments like this: “The current manufacturing process requires a mix of 70 aluminum and steel parts being pieced together into the rear frame for the Model 3. Tesla is swapping all of these parts out for a cast part from a small casting machine that will allow the company to initially go down to just 4 parts. Tesla is already looking at a larger casting machine that would allow it to consolidate this down to just one part.”

That captures the essence of Tesla quite well, something Jerome conveyed to us in various ways in our 45 minute interview. Tesla is never stagnant, is continuously pushing itself to take both little and big steps forward, is constantly innovating and evolving its processes and products.

Jerome added a note, with great emphasis, that the Tesla Grohmann equipment has created much better machines, dramatically improving the overall manufacturing efficiency of the Model 3. He also said they are building a giant machine using Tesla’s Grohmann sub-division, something he was clearly eager to share but couldn’t yet talk much about. Hmm. He basically just emphasized that it was a “giant, giant, giant machine” that duplicates everything, is modular, is simple on the modular level, and … is gigantic. We’ll all have to wait a bit longer for more information on that. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/23/our-interview-with-tesla-president-jerome-guillen-part-deux/

11
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 23, 2019, 08:40:02 PM »

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 23, 2019, 05:01:44 PM »
This ship-tracking spreadsheet shows 1 ship arriving at Zeebrugge in April, and 4 in May.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Uh_GSkShwPPlrE5mOJcrkZ-T3NmLkLnTo6xqbdtaOI/htmlview#
Data image below.
Edit: Correction, date shown below is when they departed San Francisco. But Zeebrugge arrivals still appear to be 1 in April, 4 in May 1 May, 3 June. Gah. Whatever!

The line-graph below shows ships and deliveries in Norway, Q1 vs Q2, to June 19.
Plus:
Quote
Morten Grove  (@mortenlund89) 6/21/19, 5:20 AM
Yesterday at Drammen under the cover of no ones eyes except @flyvendefrosk upwards of 600 Teslas arrived (low res picture, but Kristian who lives in Drammen confirmed them to be Tesla cars).
https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1141999265860001792
- They arrived on #PrometheusLeader who had sailed from Zeebrugge via Bremerhaven to Drammen.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Planes, planes....too many planes
« on: June 23, 2019, 04:22:24 PM »
crandles,

We do have an Aviation thread with posts about electric planes:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1551.msg205938.html#msg205938

I would think this “...too many planes” thread is for arguments whether planes should exist at all, or how awful it may be to use them.  ;)

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 23, 2019, 04:16:17 PM »

Quote

That's a disappointing choice of target.  They could just as easily protested at the NYC headquarters of Fox News, or the NY Post.

But the NYT is a much bigger target, with a much bigger following.
But the people who read the NYT aren't the people who need to have their minds changed.

I seriously doubt that readers of the NY Post or Fox News will change their minds on climate change because of a few signs or protestors.  (And their editors are unlikely to change, either.)  However, the term “climate emergency” appearing in the NYT says something, to the world.

15
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 23, 2019, 04:06:29 PM »
Politics and/or nature:

US air quality is slipping after years of improvement
Quote
The Trump administration is expected to replace an Obama-era rule designed to limit emissions from electric power plants on Wednesday. Called the Clean Power Plan, it would have gradually phased out coal-burning power plants that emit both air pollutants and heat-trapping gases responsible for climate change.

Air quality is affected by a complex mix of factors, both natural and man-made. Federal regulations that limit the emissions of certain chemicals and soot from factories, cars and trucks have helped dramatically improve air quality over recent decades. In any given year, however, air quality can be affected by natural variations. ...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/us-air-quality-slipping-years-193620925.html

16
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 23, 2019, 03:55:58 PM »
Related, from the Drought thread:

"Each year, India’s June-to-September monsoon season is the most important weather event in the world. Hundreds of millions of people directly depend on the rains. This year, the rains are weeks behind schedule and 39% below normal. It’s a disaster in the making.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1142511152758493185
Image below.

17
Consequences / Re: Drought 2019
« on: June 23, 2019, 03:54:11 PM »
"Each year, India’s June-to-September monsoon season is the most important weather event in the world. Hundreds of millions of people directly depend on the rains. This year, the rains are weeks behind schedule and 39% below normal. It’s a disaster in the making.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1142511152758493185
Image below.

18
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 23, 2019, 03:49:28 PM »
This does not specify that it was Extinction Rebellion, but...

Climate activists end blockade of German coal mine
Quote
Hundreds of climate activists ended a protest inside one of Germany's biggest open-pit mines Sunday after police repeatedly ordered them to leave, citing life-threatening danger, and authorities pulled some protesters out.

The Garzweiler lignite coal mine was a focal point of environmental protests in Germany's Rhineland since Friday, when 40,000 students rallied for more action against climate change in the nearby city of Aachen.

"We wrote climate history this weekend," the activist group Ende Gelaende said in a statement announcing the end of the protest. "Our movement has never been so diverse and never been so determined."

The protests started after European Union leaders failed to agree on how to make the EU carbon neutral by 2050.
https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/climate-activists-block-german-mine-orders-leave-63890632

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 23, 2019, 03:46:48 PM »
Nearly 70 climate change activists arrested outside New York Times headquarters
Quote
Dozens of people were arrested outside headquarters of The New York Times on Saturday after  a demonstration to demand that the newspaper refer to climate change as an emergency.

That's a disappointing choice of target.  They could just as easily protested at the NYC headquarters of Fox News, or the NY Post.

But the NYT is a much bigger target, with a much bigger following.

20
From the Extinction Rebellion thread:

Nearly 70 climate change activists arrested outside New York Times headquarters
Quote
Dozens of people were arrested outside headquarters of The New York Times on Saturday after  a demonstration to demand that the newspaper refer to climate change as an emergency.

A New York City Police Department spokesman told Reuters that 67 people were arrested. Charges against the activists are pending.

The demonstrators, who were reportedly affiliated with the environmental group Extinction Rebellion, attached a sign reading “climate change = mass murder" to the Times' building. The word "change" was crossed out and replaced it with "emergency."

Another sign was affixed to the Port Authority Bus Terminal located across the street from the newspaper's headquarters, Reuters reported. That banner simply read "emergency."

Protestors also blocked the street in front of the office while participating in a "die in," according to the news service.
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/449889-nearly-70-climate-change-activists-arrested-outside-new-york-times

——
Climate activists end blockade of German coal mine
Quote
Hundreds of climate activists ended a protest inside one of Germany's biggest open-pit mines Sunday after police repeatedly ordered them to leave, citing life-threatening danger, and authorities pulled some protesters out.

The Garzweiler lignite coal mine was a focal point of environmental protests in Germany's Rhineland since Friday, when 40,000 students rallied for more action against climate change in the nearby city of Aachen.

"We wrote climate history this weekend," the activist group Ende Gelaende said in a statement announcing the end of the protest. "Our movement has never been so diverse and never been so determined."

The protests started after European Union leaders failed to agree on how to make the EU carbon neutral by 2050.
https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/climate-activists-block-german-mine-orders-leave-63890632

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: June 23, 2019, 03:40:26 PM »
Nearly 70 climate change activists arrested outside New York Times headquarters
Quote
Dozens of people were arrested outside headquarters of The New York Times on Saturday after  a demonstration to demand that the newspaper refer to climate change as an emergency.

A New York City Police Department spokesman told Reuters that 67 people were arrested. Charges against the activists are pending.

The demonstrators, who were reportedly affiliated with the environmental group Extinction Rebellion, attached a sign reading “climate change = mass murder" to the Times' building. The word "change" was crossed out and replaced it with "emergency."

Another sign was affixed to the Port Authority Bus Terminal located across the street from the newspaper's headquarters, Reuters reported. That banner simply read "emergency."

Protestors also blocked the street in front of the office while participating in a "die in," according to the news service.
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/449889-nearly-70-climate-change-activists-arrested-outside-new-york-times

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 23, 2019, 02:33:23 AM »
Quote
Morten Grove  (@mortenlund89) 6/22/19, 8:07 AM
In Zeebrugge a truckload Tesla cars leaves every 10 minutes at present time  :o
https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1142403663408848897

Quote
Carina Larsen (@carinalarsen76) 6/20/19, 8:50 AM
BAM! Model 3 is now the 8th most registered BEV in Norway. It shot past VW e-UP on the list today  ;D 8)
Next to beat is Renault Zoe.
Source: Elbilstatistikk.no
https://twitter.com/carinalarsen76/status/1141689695644073985
Model 3: 9,336 (in less than 5 months!)
Zoe: 10,973 total
Image below.

—-
Organic Demand Growth:
Quote
Marc Bloomquist (@m40dotcom) 6/21/19, 4:38 PM
Just got this text from a friend I play basketball with as he and wifey know I have a 3, but not sure they know what they just walked into by asking to come over and see/learn about it from me. ;) Ha
https://twitter.com/m40dotcom/status/1142170013027074049
Text image at link: “Hey man. Random ask, we’re contemplating Tesla. Any chance…”

—-
Alex Roy:
The Penalty of Leadership: From Cadillac To Tesla
Brands don't lead—leaders do.
Quote
People often ask why Elon Musk doesn't pay a penalty for being such an insufferable jerk. The big question. As I enter my third month of Tesla ownership, I too have been struggling to reconcile my bottomless love for my Model 3 with my contempt for Elon….  But then I get back into my Tesla, and I just don't care.

I don't care because I know I let myself get caught up in $TSLA debate rather than the Tesla debate. Investors care about $TSLA. Consumers? Tesla. Two markets. Two products. Is $TSLA a steaming pile? I'm not an investor, so I don't care. Does Tesla make the most innovative cars on the planet?  The question answers itself. That's leadership. …
https://www.thedrive.com/opinion/28550/the-penalty-of-leadership-from-cadillac-to-tesla

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 23, 2019, 02:17:03 AM »
Reasons for the FUD-mania?  Besides simply upsetting “the way things are,” there are so many industries Tesla threatens to disrupt:
Quote
Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) 6/4/19, 5:32 PM
Industries at risk when Tesla succeeds:
Oil
ICE cars
Car dealers
Rail and other energy transportation
Auto parts
auto service
Gas stations

Did I forget some? You wonder why there is so much FUD out there. …
https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1136022818376654848
Also: Insurance.  Ride-sharing and Taxi services.

Tesla’s Alligator-Like Adversaries Represent $3.6 Trillion In Revenue Per Year (Infographic)
Quote
There are many reasons for the deluge of anti-Tesla “news” stories, but, as is often the case in human affairs, one major motivating factor stands out: money. Tesla’s success imperils the profits of the most powerful economic interests the world has ever known, and the company’s possible failure offers financial opportunity for others.

Tech and marketing maven John Mayo-Smith has created an engaging infographic entitled “Elon Musk vs. The Alligators,” which describes some of the powerful industries that are rooting for Musk and Tesla to fail (and in some cases, devoting substantial cash and effort to discrediting Musk’s enterprises in the media).

Writing in Medium, Mayo-Smith estimates that Tesla and SpaceX together threaten to deprive various entrenched stakeholders of some $3.6 trillion worth of annual revenue.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/07/teslas-alligator-like-adversaries-represent-3-6-trillion-in-revenue-per-year-infographic/

24
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 22, 2019, 07:59:22 PM »
Florida: $76 Billion
New Jersey: $25 Billion
California:  $22 Billion

Seawalls to protect U.S. against rising oceans could cost $416bn by 2040
Quote
Defending against rising seas could cost US communities $416bn in the next 20 years, according to a new report.

Spending on seawalls alone could total almost as much as the initial investment in the interstate highway system, the authors said. And the billions involved will represent just a fraction of adaptation efforts governments in coastal states will have to fund if they do not want to simply retreat.

“I don’t think anybody’s thought about the magnitude of this one small portion of overall adaptation costs and it’s a huge number,” said Richard Wiles, executive director of the Center for Climate Integrity (CCI), which published the report.

Estimates of how much sea-level rise will cost often focus on impacts by 2100, Wiles said, adding that people will be paying for the climate crisis much earlier. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/20/us-rising-seas-defense-seawalls-cost-report

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 21, 2019, 10:17:47 PM »
Model 3 begin pouring into the UK, in time for Q2.
Quote
Quote
Tesla (@Tesla) 6/21/19, 1:45 PM
Model 3 never felt so "right" ...
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1142126323852181504
Photos below.

Quote
Alex (@alex_avoigt) 6/20/19, 8:12 AM
Many don’t know that Tesla is the only car manufacturer globally with a mirrored interior - all what you need to do to switch a LHD M3 into a RHD is to reinstall the steering wheel and the paddles on the other side.
Costs....
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1141680194878627842

(The only cheaper option would be to put the steering wheel in the middle — like the Tesla Semi….)

Quote
“Tesla staff in the UK supposedly said that a 1000 RHD load would arrive soon….”
https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1141999822515396608

26
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 21, 2019, 07:42:02 PM »
New Jersey selects Denmark's Orsted for major offshore wind project
Quote
New Jersey on Friday selected Denmark’s Orsted A/S to develop a 1,100-megawatt wind project off the coast of Atlantic City, the largest ever offshore wind procurement by a U.S. state.
...
The solicitation, which board members described as historic, marks the first step toward New Jersey’s goal of contracting 3.5 GW of offshore wind by 2030. Under Governor Phil Murphy, the state has pledged to eliminate carbon from its power sector by 2050.

The project, called Ocean Wind, is expected to be completed in 2024, Orsted said in a statement. New Jersey utility Public Service Enterprise Group has an option to become an equity investor in the project, Orsted said.

Ocean Wind is expected to generate enough electricity to power 500,000 New Jersey homes. It will also generate $1.17 billion in economic benefits and create 15,000 jobs, Fiordaliso said. New Jersey’s BPU estimated that the project would add $1.46 to residential customers’ monthly bills. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-newjersey/new-jersey-selects-denmarks-orsted-for-major-offshore-wind-project-idUSKCN1TM22J

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: June 21, 2019, 01:46:41 PM »
U.S.:  Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Fire at Oil Refinery in South Philadelphia Causes Massive Explosions
Quote
A massive fire rocked an oil refinery in South Philadelphia early Friday morning, causing explosions that could be felt as far away as New Jersey, according to early news reports. No evacuations have been issued for the area, but those in neighborhoods near the blaze have been ordered to shelter in place.

The fire started at the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery at 3100 Passyunk Avenue shortly after 4:00 AM, according to the local NBC News affiliate. Witnesses in the area reported at least three explosions that rocked their vehicles and lit up the early morning sky. ...
https://gizmodo.com/fire-at-oil-refinery-in-south-philadelphia-causes-massi-1835723050
Image below; video clips at the link.

28
Consequences / Re: Heatwaves
« on: June 21, 2019, 01:20:39 PM »
Kees van der Leun: "India: Look at that temperature jump over the last 2 years. That's massive, for such a large country!...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/sustainable2050/status/1141433731586154497
Data from the India government

29
U.S.:  Oregon governor sends out state police to find GOP lawmakers skipping climate vote
Quote
Republican lawmakers in Oregon are in hot water after they refused to partake in a historic vote Thursday to implement a cap-and-trade program to help rein in industrial carbon emissions.
...
The Oregon State Police said it's using "established relationships to have polite communication with these senators" in order to get them to resume the state legislative process. That process requires 20 members in the Senate in order to proceed.

"The departure of the senators leaves the Senate without the minimum number of members required to constitute a quorum, so the legislative process has stalled," OSP said Thursday. "While we obviously have many tools at our disposal, patience and communication is and always will be our first, and preferred, option." ...
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/oregon-governor-sends-out-state-police-to-find-gop-lawmakers-skipping-out-on-climate-vote

30
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 21, 2019, 12:14:33 PM »
“But... but... Tesla will never make an annual profit!”  ::)  ;D

True, but if you read the S&P article, Annual profit and a current profitable quarter are the entry barrier..

However, annual profit is the next barrier to stabilised share price and solid performance.  But, again, you are right.  Every time the next hurdle falls, the bears go onto the following hurdle and state that Tesla will "never" make it.

None so blind..

Not “annual profit,” but the four most recent quarters.  Don’t need to wait until 2020. :)

“the S&P 500's methodology requires that the sum of a firm's four most recent quarterly earnings, as well as the most recent quarter, must be positive.”


——
The current stock price manipulation is pure ‘politics’:
Quote
Alter Viggo (@AlterViggo) 6/20/19, 1:31 AM
Was seeing chatter this afternoon from several traders thinking $TSLA might have a big move up tomorrow.

That kind of sentiment is usually ripe for some sort of analyst downgrade coming. #Tesla
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1141579332394946560

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 20, 2019, 09:17:18 PM »
Quote
EV News Daily (@EVNewsDaily) 6/20/19, 8:28 AM
I’m at the handover event for the first ever Right Hand Drive @Tesla #Model3 cars in the UK. Lots of white interiors, lots of Performance versions. Going to talk to some buyers soon too!
https://twitter.com/evnewsdaily/status/1141684179551346689
Brief video.  “Warehouse full of them,” “lots of Performance models,” “many gone already.”

June 19: Grand Mark has arrived in Zeebrugge.
6th Q2 load of Teslas for Europe and the 2nd load of RHD Model 3 for the UK

H/t: https://twitter.com/mortenlund89/status/1141525758692777984

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: June 20, 2019, 08:52:35 PM »
BMW teases Mini Electric, opens pre-orders in some markets
Quote
The automaker has now confirmed that the unveiling is going to happen on July 9 and they are opening pre-orders in 5 markets: Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Norway.

They are also keeping track of interest from potential buyers via email in the US, UK, Italy, and Spain.
...
BMW hasn’t released a lot of specs for the Mini Electric, but it is expected to be equipped with a similar powertrain as the BMW i3.
...
The new electric car from the German automaker group is expected to go into production in the UK and China. It will be available in Europe by the end of the year.
https://electrek.co/2019/06/20/bmw-teases-mini-electric-opens-pre-orders/

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 20, 2019, 08:24:37 PM »
How are leases accounted for? We should expect a significant number of sales to be leases.I’m not sure how that affect quarterly profits.

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 6/18/19, 4:48 AM
Tesla’s leases have historically had 2x gross margin than its cash sales. This will not be the case, as Model 3 leases are priced differently, but I also don’t expect a major hit. Nonetheless, institutional investors would look through the any temporary impact on GAAP financials.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1140904173300572160

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 20, 2019, 08:12:48 PM »
Quote
Bark (@BarkMSmeagol) 6/20/19, 1:24 PM
Goldman: “We’re lowing our price target for $TSLA ”

Everyone: “But you haven’t changed anything in your assumptions. You actually increased deliveries for Q2, And you actually keep buying the stock”

Goldman: “Shush you! Do as I say. Not as I do”
https://twitter.com/barkmsmeagol/status/1141758804620529664

35
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: June 20, 2019, 07:42:11 PM »
Station mission planning reveals new target Commercial Crew launch dates
https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/06/station-planning-new-crew-launch-dates/

TL;DR:  SpaceX’s first crewed mission to the ISS (DM-2) is now tentatively planned for 15 November 2019. 
Boeing’s uncrewed demo flight to the ISS is planned for 15 Sept 2019, and their first crewed mission 30 November 2019.

Article discusses US astronauts on future Soyuz flights; crew rotations; and future cargo contracts.

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 20, 2019, 02:05:15 PM »
If Tesla makes an annual profit (or if any other Musk company ever does, [currently about 0/50 ]) I will quit posting.

Hmm, until now i never cared about Tesla making a profit.

Funny how the bears used to say “Tesla will never (again) make a quarterly profit!” Which then happened in Q3 2018.  So they moved the goalpost to “Tesla will never make a profit two quarters in a row!”  Which then happened Q4 2018.  So now it’s, “But... but... Tesla will never make an annual profit!”  ::)  ;D

Tesla has checked off all the boxes to join the S&P 500 index but one: sufficient consecutive quarterly profit.  (Which does not have to be consecutive profitable quarters.) Achieving S&P membership will mean index fund managers will buy the stock (and keep it), and other investors will view Tesla as a safer investment, which should help reduce the bear FUD.

Tesla on Track to Join to S&P 500: Macquarie
https://www.investopedia.com/news/tesla-track-join-sp-500-macquarie/

Tesla’s Upcoming Inclusion In The S&P 500 Index
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/11/12/teslas-upcoming-inclusion-in-the-sp-500-index/


37
The rest / Re: SpaceX
« on: June 20, 2019, 01:36:30 PM »
Quote
SpaceX (@SpaceX) 6/20/19, 12:52 AM
Static fire of Falcon Heavy complete—targeting June 24 launch of STP-2 from Launch Complex 39A in Florida → https://www.spacex.com/stp-2
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1141569552330870784
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 6/19/19, 11:59 AM
This will be our most difficult launch ever
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1141375028321062912

The how and why of a SpaceX static fire event:
SpaceX fires Falcon Heavy’s 27 booster engines ahead of “most difficult launch ever”
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-falcon-heavy-static-fire-most-difficult-launch-ever/

Why this mission stands out:
A SpaceX surprise: Falcon Heavy booster landing to smash distance record
https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-surprise-falcon-heavy-booster-landing-distance-record/

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 20, 2019, 04:22:02 AM »
White is the new black

On the bright side, it makes all those scratches from Tesla haters keying your car less noticeable.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 20, 2019, 04:09:32 AM »
Re the Chanos “calls”:  Never mind!  ;D
Quote
Update: Apparently there was a filing error and puts were registered as calls. So the below article is now moot.

Has Tesla Ultra Bear, Jim Chanos thrown in the towel?, Update: Nope, filing error
https://evlution.co/stories/2019/6/18/Has_Tesla_Ultra_Bear_Jim_Chanos_thrown_in_the_towel_Update_Nope_filing_error.html

—-
But it’s not like many of the professional analysts are much better:  ::)

Quote
Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) 6/19/19, 8:19 AM
MORGAN STANLEY'S Jonas: "We continue to believe Tesla is fundamentally overvalued, but potentially strategically undervalued and that the stock market has done a good job pricing in the confluence of both factors, leaving us Equal-Weight with a $230 price target."
https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1141319683179778048
Quote
Is Tesla undervalued? Yes
Is Tesla overvalued? Yes
Is Tesla valued correctly? Yes

Outstanding analysis  ;D
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1141335413803638785?s=21

40
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: June 20, 2019, 02:45:43 AM »
13 June.  Wildfires in Siberia.

Alarming wildfires rage near giant ‘Mouth of Hell’ gash in the tundra, a wonder of Siberia
Quote
The fires are now raging some 10 to 15 kilometres from the megaslump crater - a large hole in the frozen Arctic soil which highlights the dramatic speed of thawing permafrost.

The Batagaika or Batagai "megaslump" is a tadpole-shaped depression around one kilometre long, 800 metres wide and 100 metres deep.

It is growing by some 15 to 30 metres a year - but if it is hit by the nearby inferno this would destroy trees on its rim and loosen the soil even more, resulting in further collapses.
...
Changes in the local climate have seen an ‘almost snowless’ winter in this northern outpost with dry weather exacerbating the risk of wildfires spreading.  ...
http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/alarming-wildfires-rage-near-giant-mouth-of-hell-gash-in-the-tundra-a-wonder-of-siberia/

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 19, 2019, 09:49:23 PM »
Quote
Alter Viggo (@AlterViggo) 6/19/19, 1:45 PM
** DELAYED **
No, not Tesla. @Porsche is delaying the release of the Taycan, its performance #EV.
Anyone wanna bet this has to do with @Tesla improving Model S range to 370 miles (not to mention faster charging rate)?

taycanforum.com/threads/taycan…
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1141401662764044288
(Image below.)
- I wonder if the Audi recall tipped off the Taycan engineers to a similar issue.

——
While we’re waiting… the Tesla Model 3 wins even more accolades from famous doubters:

Tesla destroys German critic’s electric car prejudice after Model 3 test drive
“The car is much better than all models of electric competition. The technical lead is easily four to five years. Range and driving pleasure are unmatched.”
Quote
German automotive veteran Nando Sommerfeldt has not had good experiences with electric cars. At one time, the electric vehicles he was testing ended up running out of charge, making him stranded in the middle of a trip. Other vehicles proved too slow to charge, testing his family’s patience. Sommerfeldt has reservations about electric cars, even a prejudice, if you may, but it only lasted until he drove a Tesla Model 3. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-destroys-ev-prejudice-germany-review/

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 19, 2019, 09:44:12 PM »
Discovery:  Famed short-seller Jim Chanos has gone long! ....
Or is he just putting a floor on potential losses if his short doesn't pan out. I swear the media doesn't understand or intentionally misleads the public on the market.

Yes, this could be a hedge.  But Chanos has boasted long and loud that Tesla stock has nowhere to go but down, so his bear/short followers see any suggestion from him that something else is even possible as simply traitorous.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 18, 2019, 10:58:17 PM »
Discovery:  Famed short-seller Jim Chanos has gone long! and purchased Tesla call options.  While this does not mean he’s gone bullish, he is at least stepping back from his oft-repeated claim that Tesla stock has nowhere to go except to $0.  The replies to the tweet below document some of the disbelief posted by his Tesla bear followers.

Tesla’s biggest short Jim Chanos is betting on a TSLA rise in latest SEC filing
Quote
SEC filings from noted Tesla short Jim Chanos’ Kynikos Associates LP has shown that the prolific short-seller’s fund is long $420,000 on TSLA call options. ...

Jim Chanos’ long TSLA call options has been met by bewilderment from the Tesla community. Chanos, after all, is considered as the most prominent short-seller against the electric car maker, at some points giving the impression that there is no margin of error in his negative predictions on Tesla. When Chanos emphasizes his thesis that Tesla is worth a $0, for example, he speaks with such certainty that he seems entirely convinced that there is no way for the electric car maker to succeed.

With this in mind, his long TSLA call options, all but indicates that he expects Tesla stock to rise, indicates Chanos is seriously considering, or perhaps even expecting, that the electric car maker’s stock price will be rising. It should be noted that Jim Chanos’ long TSLA call options do not mean that he is turning bullish on the electric car maker. Chanos likely remains as one of Tesla’s most ardent short-sellers today. It just so happens that as of writing, the investing community could see that the legendary short-seller seems to be considering a scenario where he might be wrong in his bet against Tesla. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-short-jim-chanos-expects-tsla-rally-sec-filing/

Quote
Vincent (@vincent13031925) 6/17/19, 11:08 PM
Well, this is kinda Epic!
Jim Chanos' Kynikos fund is long $420k Tesla call options according to the latest 13F SEC filing
Via:   https://www.reddit.com/r/teslainvestorsclub/comments/c1tl23/jim_chanos_kynikos_fund_is_long_420k_tesla_call/ 
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1140818593606582273

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 18, 2019, 09:46:35 PM »
Yawn

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 18, 2019, 09:45:36 PM »
Quote
I agree that 400 miles (645 km) is more of a psychological necessity then a physical one. But it also supplies a buffer for cold weather, air conditioning, and mountainous driving.
And towing.

Yes.  Good one.

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: June 18, 2019, 07:32:44 PM »
Interesting “tail-dragger” design, with pusher-props on the wingtips and tail.  Easy enough nowdays to add a camera under the nose to improve forward visibility, and computer-control of engines and rudder to prevent the plane from swapping ends on the ground (a risk particularly with vintage tail-draggers that have a single heavy engine up front).

https://www.eviation.co/alice/

Eviation's all-electric Alice airplane coming to US regional airline Cape Air by 2022
Quote
Cape Air is one of the largest regional airlines in the US, operating in 35 US and Caribbean cities, with a fleet of 92 nine-seater airplanes. Eviation says Cape Air has a double-digit purchase option for the nine-seat Alice, which it will incorporate into its existing fleet.

Alice will begin test flights this year. Eviation expects to receive certification in 2021, and it says it will start shipping the planes for commercial use by 2022.
https://electrek.co/2019/06/18/eviation-electric-cape-air/

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 18, 2019, 06:15:26 PM »
Well, Sigmetnow, you really hit it out of the park with those last four posts.  Excellent illustration of the value of the Maxwell acquisition.  Have you found any info as to how much the new process might cut the cost of finished cells?  And then there should be capacity increases meaning lighter battery packs.  Which means either longer range for the same weight or a smaller number of cells and lower cost for the same range.  I am struggling to figure out why anyone would need a 400+ mile range.  300 miles with rapid recharging (while you eat a meal) seems plenty to me.

After Tesla announced their long range 500 mile semi tractor Musk stated that the range would likely be closer to 600 miles.  A further increase in capacity may take the range over 600 miles.  I wonder if knowledge of the likely acquisition of Maxwell might have played a role in the delay of the T-semi release until next year.

Thanks.  Tesla remains secretive about cell cost… but there was quite a lot of non-verbal communication happening during the Shareholder Meeting between the Tesla higher-ups (on-stage and in the audience), concerning ‘doing everything we need to do’ to ensure an increased battery supply for their upcoming products.  (And especially around the “Model Y starting in late 2020” remark. ;) )

I agree that 400 miles (645 km) is more of a psychological necessity then a physical one. But it also supplies a buffer for cold weather, air conditioning, and mountainous driving.  In a few years, when fast charging infrastructure (and cars able to use it) are as ubiquitous as gas stations are today, having 400 mile range will not be as important in most markets.  (Will that help OEM automakers, who struggle to supply a satisfactory range today?  Perhaps that is one reason for their increasing charge point installations.)

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: June 18, 2019, 05:07:56 PM »
“A dramatic fall in car sales means that Subaru Norway must terminate its employees and cut wages and other costs.”

Quote
Tesla Driver  (@M_xalher) 6/17/19, 4:36 PM
Norway Subaru sales «plummeting», «down 66%» in 2019 due to «lack of EVs».
«Mazda down 45% last three years»
«Ford sales down 50% last 10 years».
Tesla «to the top» of sales statistics, after «trebling sales in 2019».

(Business daily Finansavisen)
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1140719790585208833
Image of article (Norwegian) at the link

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 18, 2019, 04:56:45 PM »
Forbes!

“Consumers will ultimately discover Tesla’s technological and price – better value for money – leadership, as the advantage of Tesla over competitors is too significant to be ignored and dismissed. It will also become apparent that EV launches from traditional (manufacturers) also come with problems and delays. Quality issues can occur in early stages. Good examples of these are the recent recalls from Audi (E-tron) and the Jaguar I-Pace in the U.S.”

Report: German Competition Will Rebound In Tesla's Favor
https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2019/06/17/german-competition-will-rebound-in-teslas-favor-report/

50
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 18, 2019, 04:55:20 PM »
Quote
Don’t tell the Tesla bears that on average over the last three years, Q1 and Q2 only accounted for 37% of the yearly sales total.
They are convinced $TSLA won’t hit guidance but haven’t noticed this trend I guess.
Q1 2018 accounted for 12% of total #Tesla sales for the year.

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1140621975561355264
First 1/2 vs second 1/2 sales percentage vs yearly sales:
2016 38-62
2017 45-55
2018 28-72
2019 ??

https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1140630620865028097

—-
- Defining “Crossing the Chasm”:
EV market share > 10% or more, and
Tesla market share > 3% or more

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 6/16/19, 6:24 AM
UPDATED: Markets where Tesla has or will soon “Cross the Chasm”
2018
Norway
U.S. West

2019
U.S. East
Canada
Netherlands
Sweden

2020
U.S. Central
Australia
China
UK
Finland
France
Germany
Japan


Which country would you add to this list?
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1140203550733152256

Quote
Starlight Energies (@Starlight_Energ) 6/15/19, 11:03 AM
name a country where Tesla deliveries will decline over the next year  ;D
https://twitter.com/starlight_energ/status/1139911377932320768

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