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Messages - Frivolousz21

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 19, 2019, 06:12:32 AM »
I just looked at the 12z European weather model and it is unbelievable or the Arctic Basin to end out May. 

if you go back in historical records probably even back to the 1850s or 60s which is 160 or 70 years.
You will be hard-pressed to find even one year showing it kind averaging syncing are anomalies sunny skies that the weather models are showing and it's not just a fantasy because we were well under way of the pattern change as I say this.



Starting with the classic banana high pressure with the cutoff vortex over Eastern Canada transitioning to a basin wide Mega high pressure in the long range that is nasty Sunshine for this time of year.

That leads to the possibility by June 1st.  We will see surface melting Albedo drops that we've never seen on record before.

Men as you all know because of that and heading towards Peak solar insolation in late June there will be a ramp-up and Ice loss we could be looking at something that blows 2007 out of the water.


I know 2012 had a lower minimum than 2007.

But 2007 had an UNPRECEDENTED ALMOST CENTRAL ARCTIC BASIN NUKE.

THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A DRESDEN FIREBOMBING THAT COMPLETELY DECIMATES THE ENTIRE BASIN WITH TIME



2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 15, 2019, 10:29:04 PM »
These are just random times next week to show the continuity of the major models with this.


That's absolutely filfthy for getting the Arctic melt season in full gear by June 1st over a large part of the basin.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 15, 2019, 10:18:14 PM »
Both the Euro and the GFS go straight ham on the Arctic.

The process of the pattern changes already underway. 

During the next two to three days temperatures will still be relatively cool over most of the ice. 

however during this time a rigid high pressure will slowly be developing and spreading across the American Pacific side and into the Canadian basin.

By day three to four the ridge will be substantial and the cold air over 1/3 of the Artic will be scoured out completely with a very warm flow coming straight off the North American continent.

After day for this only intensify and slowly pivots to be more parallel with the Canadian basin.


Eventually spreading across Greenland

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: May 13, 2019, 03:16:26 AM »
I haven't followed any of this so bear with me if this is a wrong conclusion.

But it looks like the Euro and the global forecasting system.  I'm using talk to text that's why I didn't just say GFS because sometimes it doesn't come out right.


Anyways both of them at least on their runs today in about 48 to 60 hours start essentially a hemispheric wide pattern change and the upper latitudes.

You can see not just high pressure blowing up in around the Beaufort sea.

But the huge banana high pressure structure becomes evident.  With the cut-off vortex just south of Greenland and over Eastern Canada.

The way the euro depicts this straight nasty.

But both models are now onto this.


Infact the GEM and UKMET is going down the same path.


For those who are not aware:


Meteorology speaking this setup is essentially the Holy Grail of having a record-setting Arctic sea ice loss during the summer.

Solar energy right now is booming over the arctic.  The best way to set up things for huge loses of sea ice is sprawling upper level atmospheric ridges of high pressure that exist from top down.

This is the path to dry sinking air and wall to wall sunny skies. 

We have never had a May 20-30th GARGANTUAN RIDGE that preconditioned the ice for huge June and July loses.


Stay tuned

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: April 08, 2019, 05:17:36 AM »
Unless there is a legit Arctic dipole anomaly with a negative NOA after May 15th through June.

what's happening now just won't cut it if you're looking for records without that.


I don't know if we can say we are due.

But we are due.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2018, 04:03:42 PM »
Given the unprecedented event taking shape I cant believe this forum is dead.

We might see extent losses im early October.

I cant find anything like this in the archives.

I mean not even close.


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2018, 12:25:08 PM »
Incredible.

The freeze up is going to crawl along.




8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 26, 2018, 03:37:20 AM »
Slow wing’s most recent posted animation for the seven days ending 24 September appears to show a sizable flash refreeze in the ESS arm. Flash occurrences of that type, both melt and refreeze, are often seen differently by the sensors a day or so after the flash occurrence. If that happens in this instance, then another decline in extent could occur on that basis alone, though not likely enough to challenge the preliminary minimum, IMO.

No way that is happening. 

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: September 25, 2018, 03:15:30 AM »
The models say the freeze up will crawl along. 

Literally crawl along.

The first week of August the ice will barely be above right now.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: September 04, 2018, 04:30:04 AM »
The Euro is ridiculous  with the WAA it has from day 4-5 on. 

Would really hammer the pacific  side.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 23, 2018, 10:51:57 AM »
The ESS will likely melt out completely or very close.

The models show a mostly cyclonic flow developing the next week.

This will really eat at the weakest ice from the Beaufort to ESS because warm enough air will being pulled in won't really allow the water to vent much heat.

With so much open water the warm water will get sloshed a lot helping mix up heat through the broken ice.

It's impossible to tell but the ESS and Chuckie regions could fall off enough for a top 5 finish.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 10, 2018, 04:46:28 AM »
Seems that the big high pressure dome over the Laptev side of the Arctic is now starting to wind down.  No sign of massive ice loss as predicted by some of the more exciteable posters in this thread.  Models seem to want to build a significant low so we'll see what the heat and stir method can achieve.  I do think the ice in that area is on the strong side of what can be expected in this age of ice everywhere weaker, and the results might be similar to the recent Beaufort plunge - moving up through the pack a bit, but by no means leaving it in the dust.  We are getting into the shoulder season with strong but definitely declining solar input so the slow down due to cloudiness won't be as significant as for low pressure systems earlier in this season.

The ice has seen melt all over.

Just because extent hasn't plumetted doesn't matter yet.


13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 07, 2018, 12:11:44 AM »
The laptev into the CAB has been getting smoked.

And now winds have turned out of a southerly direction blowing over the warm open laptev waters but also with sun and warm ridging.

Expect to see the laptev and ess regions to completely collapse.

They won't collapse immediately, I think, but there should be enough time until the minimum for a lot of ice to melt. Here's the ECMWF forecast for the coming days, plenty of high pressure on the Siberian side (and I've added cute white arrows to show which way the wind will be blowing wrt the ice north of Greenland):


I definitely should have said over the next month.

But the current set up is lethal in those regions.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 06, 2018, 09:18:57 PM »
The laptev into the CAB has been getting smoked.

And now winds have turned out of a southerly direction blowing over the warm open laptev waters but also with sun and warm ridging.

Expect to see the laptev and ess regions to completely collapse.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 05, 2018, 08:41:45 PM »
You can see the surface changes here.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 05, 2018, 08:37:25 PM »
Quote
so awesome. 2-3 more days of wind blowing the ice away from the coast
It looks like the lift-off north of Greenland will continue a few more days at least as a slowly drifing atmospheric pattern sets up, which will give rise to a consistent ice drift (towards the Bering Strait) unlike the chaotic winds back to June 1st and earlier.

To be clear, this is neither bottom nor top melt, just winds blowing the icepack off the coast, creating some open water and dispersed floes. It is a bit unusual to see this in the Lincoln Sea which is one of the last hold-outs of thick ice. August 5th is available at WorldView Aqua, putting it one day ahead of the algorithmic products.

Quote
Mercator is confusing without the scale. The color scales are different for different depths otherwise we would see a lot of convection
Right, there are serious design errors at that site involving shifting color scales. Even if they are included, comparative graphics can still be misleading.

Actually there has been tremendous melt going on there.

The ice there from day 1-of this new pattern immediately went from dryish to bottom out albedo.

Because that area had some sun with huge WAA. Then days of fog under a very warm airmass.


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 04, 2018, 07:43:40 PM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere

clear skies?

for me this is not clear skies until someone is able to explain the definition of clear skies that differs from "cloud free" that evades me.

the image is from today and it has been that way for a long time while cloud free spots change on a daily basis of course

Not sure where that image is from but it's not accurate.

This is the last three days.  Anywhere with a red or orangish red tint is ice.  And or snow.

This is about as could free as it gets.  There is fog in the cab thanks to tremendous WAA but for August this is impressive.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 04, 2018, 07:45:51 AM »
On world view the clear skies reveal the ice has darkened substantially essentially everywhere

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 04, 2018, 05:34:31 AM »
Most of the CAB is very deep.

It will take an amazing change to cause it to be ice free in winter.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 03, 2018, 08:50:36 PM »
The gfs has a much more amped up ridge after day 5 than the euro.

The gfs also has a massive cyclone likely helping that ridge stay explosive.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 02, 2018, 08:13:14 AM »
The 00z gfs would be EPIC.

We would see likely unprecedented melting over the entire basin this time of year.

The laptev is getting the brakes beat off it as it looks now.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: August 01, 2018, 07:50:12 AM »
The Arctic is about to clear out.

And get mother fucking pummeled.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 30, 2018, 01:04:43 AM »
Yes I'm cherry picking but the gfs after the initial thrust of heat reforms a Siberian positive dipole.


This would be a perfect storm of events to cripple the laptev/CAB Atlantic front and finish the ESS off.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 30, 2018, 12:43:57 AM »
The NEATL is exploding in near surface oceanic heat.

This will happen all the way to the ice edge as the weather progresses.

If this forecast holds its not overstating it that the laptev region could be crippled all the way towards 85N.

Ice thickness about 1M or less even this late can vanish under a moisture laden WAA + Warm sst + sun.




Man the models are showing incredible heat and moisture coming at the arctic from Eurasia and the NE ATL.

Its more then I recall ever seeing.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 28, 2018, 08:59:09 AM »
The euro and gfs both clobber the CAA, BeAufort, chuchki and ESS the next 5 days.  And the Western CAB a bit.


Then they go reverse dipole with it being a high pressure grounded out of the NE ATL/Scandinavian furnace.

Fun indeed


26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 28, 2018, 08:11:30 AM »
Hell yeah solar can still wreck.

Above 400w/m2.


27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 28, 2018, 05:09:00 AM »
I'm fucking blown away.

But how??



28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 28, 2018, 02:39:23 AM »
Bremen amsr2 images are going to be decently clear the next 3-4 days.

We will get a great snapshot of the ice pack.

It appears a similar size area of solid contiguous flows for the most part comparable to 2007, 2015, 2016, and 2017 is protected well.

Because of the inherently thin ice over the Pacific side its clear heat has penetrated above and below the ice.  Once  that large area abruptly opened up with miles and miles of open water, between large groups of floes waves and some form of convective overturning allowed solid mixing of heat into the upper ocean layer.

If heat only penetrates a few meters its all the same.

Every clear moment with the surface above -1c saw a proportionate level of warming and melting of ice comparative to the ambient temperature.

The combo of fog, sun, and high vapor content is lethal.

A surge of moisture rocked the Pacific side and it collapsed in one week.

Now waves will be overturning and crushing ice floes.

Game over.

Ice loss will slow a bit from fresh cold water around the ice.

But the sun is returning with a massive thermal seasonal peak of heat from the NA continent and NPAC.

Also



EPIC HEAT IS ROCKING THE BARENTS THEN MODELS SHOW A LONG WIND FETCH + SUN  OVER THE ATLANTIC SIDE.

THIS WILL CRIPPLE THE ICE NEAR THE LAPTEV AND LOSOMOV RIDGE UP TOWARDS THE POLE AND NE lincoln sea.

A downslope wind off GIS parallel to the east coast of gis is brutal to the ice along the Atlantic edge.


THE WIND + solar input will prevent THE WARM WATER COMING NORTH FROM NATURALLY MIXING DOWN.

THE FRICTION FROM WIND ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE CURRENT TO BE MOVING TO FAST TO MIX UNDER THE COLD POOL.

THE HEAT WILL ESSENTIALLY ROLL OVER THE COLD POOL PUSHING IT BACK TOWARDS THE ICE PACK.

EVERY INCH OF WATER SURFACE AREA WARM WATER INTRUDES TOWARDS THE POLE WITH A BACKED LONG FETCH ALL THE WAY TO SCANDINAVIA BLOWING OVER ALREADY HISTORICALLY WARM WATER COULD BE HISTORICAL.

The shitty ice is clear on jaxa. Can't wait to see modis and amsr2-the next 6 hours.


The steady dipole brings sun but creates a dry air dome.

This volatile anomalous pattern is cloudy but brings epic moisture laden surface warmth.

WAA with fog and surface few points around 33-34C is ice ending boom.

The only other ice crippler like that is an epic direct waa scheme from land surface heating.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 27, 2018, 08:18:18 PM »
Thats pretty thin going into May.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 27, 2018, 06:11:28 AM »
No that is very aligned with the last cryosat reading of where the thinnest ice was.

Amsr2 also confirms this.

There was a huge area of ice that only refroze to 1-1.5M over the Pacific side of the arctic.

The weather has been no where near bad enough historically for that area to be this disintegrated this summer.

If we do see a dipole anomaly generally the next two weeks.

A huge chunk of blue ocean is opening up


31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 26, 2018, 10:52:51 PM »
The gfs is pretty nasty.

Still plenty of solar the next 2-3 weeks to really dent things. 


32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 25, 2018, 01:03:57 PM »
The weather models are pretty favorable for melt.

No chance to reach the top 3.

But of course with the generalized weakened ice state a warm August will yield substantial ice loss.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 08, 2018, 05:40:47 AM »
Drops mic:


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 06, 2018, 11:54:15 AM »
The atlantc side is skewing the inner basin drops.

The Pacific side has been well protected.

So a slow down is very likely as we go along

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 06, 2018, 06:51:45 AM »
Modis and Bremen amsr2 graphics show parts of the chuchki and ESS getting smoked.

It extends further North but visible is obscured by clouds and amsr is obscured by higher clouds with frozen vapor.

If my back of the envelope math is right.

Having 2-4C surface temps with 20-30km winds not even accounting for insolation can melt upwards of 10-15cm a day off the top.

If the dews are also 1-2C with Smoke and decent insolation.

Incredible melting can really go nuts because the sub surface will also see a massive influx of heat.

Even in a couple days this massive heat intrusion could leave the subsurface a degree or two warmer than before.

0 to 0.5c sub surface water in low psi conditions is essentially 2c Above the freezing point

Also the ESS is still shallow almost all of the heat dumped into the sub surface will go to melting the ice or warming the sea bed.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 05, 2018, 06:13:13 AM »
Omg the ESS shows a huge surface change from just a half day of supertorch.


37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 03, 2018, 07:55:19 AM »
One thing is for sure.

I can't recall a blast of heat ever this intense actually exploding over an area of arctic ice as large as this one is expected to encompass.

The models are showing very strong well mixed winds vertically stacked over a long fetch for 36-60 hours over parts of the Pacific side. 

This is going to bring a period of 2-4C surface temps over the ESS, chuchki, and Beaufort.

With even warmer surface temps of 4c+ grazing the edges.

This will allow tremendous heat to reach the ice surface.  Pending clouds and rain.  Melt rates are going to jump into the 5-10cm/day range.

And expect huge drops in extent and area because the entire ESS shoreline is going to see open water explode into existence.  We will see likely 30-40km a day of ice cleared off the shoreline.

Models show no local inversions at the surface..

meaning the 20-35C air coming off the shoreline will directly cream the ice front bringing a steady supply of heat smoking the near shore ess ice.

Also where open water appears ssts will immediately jump to explosive warmth for the ESS.

LIKE 5C+ easily against the ice sheet.

Lasting impacts remain to be seen but this is going to be epic

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 02, 2018, 07:03:22 AM »
Gfs still brings an epic ahot of heat but unless the progged vortex doesn't move another 400+ miles SW and stay near GIS the airmass wont be over the arctic long enough to really make a difference in the end but that is  strAight filthy heat.


39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 04:39:48 AM »


We CAN clearly see the difference.

The heat advection showed last night through the CAB was straight epic versus what it showed today

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 04:28:04 AM »

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 04:06:04 AM »
Last nights 00z euro had epic dipole warmth crushing the CAB.

Today's 12z is a subtle but wildly colder solution.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 01, 2018, 04:03:33 AM »
Just like the last 8 summers, there is no clear way to evaluate this summer given history.

Over the last few years I have begun to have much more sympathy with Gavin Schmidt.  When he talked about the only way you could predict was over a multi decadal cadence with 3 decades being the minimum, my comment was usually that, in the arctic, it would be likely that the only way they would be able to predict what was going to happen was when all the ice was gone.

However there are trends.  NSIDC extent is now at 7th lowest.  In the next 2-3 days, barring some significant drops in extent, that is going to drop to 9th as it crosses both 2007 and 2013.  A few days later it may, or may not, drop into 10th place as it crosses 2015.

Recent history tells me that it is unlikely to stay below 7th place.  However a somewhat longer history tells me that the longer the ice is covering so much of the Arctic, the less insolation you will get.  It is not as if we have a massively dispersed pack either, so the chances of picking up significant insolation within the pack are lower.

I am ever aware that 2012 was not going to be anything super special until the GAC, however it was solidly melting, firmly off the coasts and the ice was vulnerable to movement.

Was it really so long ago that we "anticipated" even one sea route being open water, let alone two, that we can't conceive of a melting season where they are not both open?

The trend, earlier in the year, spoke of significant melt.  The trend, later in the year did not.  It will take multiple "weather events" to overturn that trend.  No single event, of itself, is going to do that and we see that weather events are swinging between hot and cold, which does not bode well for extended melting.

Time will tell.  I am, as ever, willing to be surprised.

2012 was expected before the GAC.

Many of us expected a new record low in area/extent by late June/early July.

We just didn't expect it to be so early and that rec record breaking

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 29, 2018, 08:24:44 AM »
The 00Z is quite interesting.

Definitely would be a game changer

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 28, 2018, 10:35:05 PM »
There is volume loss in the CAB during June according to PIOMAS.


That shows a nearly negligible amount of June volume loss.


45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 28, 2018, 10:33:56 PM »
I said almost never.

That's one buoy showing almost no melt in June of last year. 

It also shows there was no snow cover.  Which isn't normal.

Please show evidence of the substantial slush pool over the CAB.


46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 28, 2018, 08:43:38 AM »
Try floating some ice on some salt water and melting the top with a hair dryer. It will quickly refreeze on the surface. BECAUSE of the energy absorbed by the bottom melting. The Arctic is bottom melting faster than ever before.

Is that so? If yes, this is the most consistent and comprehensive explanation of what we are seeing this June.
Of course it is. Before everyone had refrigerated freezers they had iceboxes. The iceman would come once a week with a block. You' sprinkle some salt on it so it sat in a puddle of salty water. Presto: freezer. I think zero Fahrenheit is defined as the temp of equal weights of salt and water with ice floating in it isn't it?

The explanation that its meltponds where SMOS shows thin Ice during melt season may have been true in the past. But now it appears it may be our most accurate indication of actual concentration and area covered on a regional basis. The ice thickness bar might be actually fairly accurate as average ice thickness over an area of ocean that is a sprawling mess of floes and rubble. While other mor publicised and popular area and extent figures count open water gaps in the few hundred metre range as ice. SMOS just averages the distance between different polarisations from the surface and salinity horizon's over 40x40,km.
We have seen this week how several days of warm wet low level wind from the South made the pack between Svalbard and the pole look thicker on SMOS, when it most certainly was wetting the surface and melting it. Now a couple of days of northerlies in the area and the dispersion southwards gives the reverse:
(Thickness bar not indicating floe thickness accurately)

That's utter rubbish.  There is almost no melt ever.

EVER

above 80N before July.

Any year.  Literally no ice loss.

This year is no exception. 


47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 27, 2018, 04:03:51 AM »

The dipole pattern of 2005-2012 is definitely a standalone unique event even on the scale of 150 years at this point.


Any particular reason for 150 years? There was a paper that got quite a lot of attention last year that I interpreted as finding this was on a 70-year cycle.

I through that out there basically against the ncep data that goes back that far and there being no comparable period with such a consistent summer dipole and -ao pattern.

Id love to see the papers findings tho.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 26, 2018, 02:56:38 PM »
The aforemented high pressure is not going to give any significant WAA into the Arctic basin. Sunshine and some melt ponds, yes, but the real melting momentum will be lacking. And most of the weather models indicates that this high pressure won't be more persistent but a return to more clody and cyclonic weather should likely be seen in about a week or so.

This melting season should likely pan out like 2013-2014 and perhaps like 1996 wrt the degree of melting.  And no, it won't be top-5, not even close. I agree with both Neven and Friv at that point. That would be interesting for the upcoming refreeze season. Very warm waters surrounding the Arctic but with a inner core of ice that wil be able to get some "recovery".

Yeah, the models have already trended back towards a dirty ridge with only modestly warm mid, level WAA.

Then both go right back to a negative dipole during the most critical period.

Only 2010 had cool July weather but 2010 torched in May/june.

The dipole pattern of 2005-2012 is definitely a standalone unique event even on the scale of 150 years at this point.


However the melt season is only part of the equation.

The past couple years have seen record low ice coverage the other 3/4th of the time.

Very indicative of a larger regime change to a warmer Earth

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 26, 2018, 03:36:48 AM »
Using smos to define wetness versus other years.

2018 is essentially slower than almost every other year since 2010. 

Even tho 2018 doesn't have a large area still showing a mostly dry reflective surface.

most of the ice sheet shows very little wetness over a huge area.

This should change.  But we all know real ice loss takes a while to get going from the initial surface wetness.

And bottom ice melt takes even longer.

 2018 has seen 2/3rd of the ice sheet barely see any signs of surface wetness.

A tremendous change is going come or 2018 will be close to 13-14 in the end

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: June 25, 2018, 11:12:13 AM »
And whatever value Smos data offers.  It shows the area over the Atlantic side did freeze up or get a fresh Cost of snow.

Even tho models say temps are above freezing.

Models notoriously over estimate ice sheet near surface warmth under cloudy skies in the Arctic without strong warm air advecting.


Fwie..I think this area will see melting at the surface as early as today given the current changeable weather.

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