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Messages - pietkuip

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 22, 2020, 11:09:10 PM »
Or the excess mortality stories. Average mortality is X, and it was Y during the period in which people fell ill with COVID-19, hence the difference can only be explained by COVID-19, and not for instance due to panic, causing old people to have premature strokes and heart attacks, or Romanian careworkers to flee to their home country, or huge logistical mistakes to be made (because of decades of underfunding and cost-cutting) etc. What kind of childish, unscientific thinking is that?
Unscientifically looking at the graphs on https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest one sees that in April mortality had tripled in Manaus, quadrupled in Guayas, quintupled in New York City, sextupled in Bergamo.

And you want to attribute that to "panic"?

Of course there is every reason to want to close one's eyes to the prospect that such outbreaks might happen in one's own town too. Year after year, maybe even twice per year. And that is only the deaths. There are also the months-long (possibly chronic) cases.

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 19, 2020, 07:29:57 PM »
The Financial Times has excess mortality for some hard-hit regions on their Corona page https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Some cities are four or five times as high as in an ordinary month: New York, Guayas, Bergamo. I suppose this may happen anywhere.

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 19, 2020, 02:38:26 PM »
It would be nice if they also provided numbers per country but all we have is those Z-scores.
Those z-scores are standard deviations of the numbers that usually die in that week. That is then proportional to the square root of the number of deaths, which should be roughly proportional to the size of the population.

So z of England should be comparable to Spain. And the z-unit is then a bit larger for smaller popultions like Belgium and the Netherlands.

4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 17, 2020, 11:04:39 AM »
Have a link?
Sorry, I was wrong, was not a live concert, was from last year.

Norway has a 500-person maximum on gatherings now.

Which was not obeyed last night:

https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/festkaos-i-norge-i-natt-studenter-trotsade-corona/

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 17, 2020, 10:13:05 AM »

Sweden could have been Norway. They choose not to be. Most countries that try Sweden's strategy without Sweden's low population density and population compliance will fail.

National Day today in Norway.

I saw the concert last night live on TV. Beautiful music.

But choirs are known to be efficient spreaders of contamination.

The audience was outside, but tightly packed.

(and I hardly dare to mention it to you Archimid - no mouth caps....)


Edit: was not live, was from last summer

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 17, 2020, 09:16:55 AM »
Interesting chart of deaths per 1000 hab., for three really different countries but that, due to one reason or another, have challenged the notion of imposing a total lockdown against covid-19.
For follow-up.

Indeed for follow-up.

And total mortality is a better comparison than lab-confirmed deaths.

https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

(where US statistics are two weeks behind...)

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 14, 2020, 01:53:42 PM »
Excess mortality still strongly decreasing in The Netherland (last data point first week of May):



https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 10, 2020, 08:21:52 PM »
Alexander555, “ the fact that a person can carry the virus for months “  is a fact not supported by a source. So I try to go find something like a limit to how long someone can transmit Coronavirus. I get some numbers but nothing like months . But to be fair there is plenty we don’t know.

We have people here in Belgium that are already sick from the virus for 9 weeks.

Some people have fevers for weeks. Sometimes they are not even that sick. And then they take a test and are positive. Then it is of course likely that they had Covid all that time.

https://www.svd.se/petra-har-haft-39-graders-feber-sju-veckor-i-strack   (paywalled)

(But some murkins will think I am fearmongering. Have no fear! Trump will MAGA. Hail Trump!)

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 10, 2020, 02:55:21 PM »
Would it errupt again at full force next winter ? This time we only had it after the winter.

The New York Times had this article about simulations with seasonal effects:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/health/coronavirus-pandemic-curve-scenarios.html

Does not look good.

10
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 10, 2020, 11:07:20 AM »
Yes, this is very well covered in the press that I follow. Most people can walk and chew gum at the same time. They can follow the news about a virus which has claimed more lives than all other single causes together so far this year.


This is an example of the type of fear that Neven is railing against.  The virus is not even the single highest cause of death, let alone higher than all other causes combined.  At the peak of the virus, COVID-19 was responsible for 16% of the total deaths.  For the year to date, it is less than 10%.  Just another example of fearmongering.

What country are you talking about? This is data from the Netherlands:


https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

At the peak week, mortality was twice as high as normal. Without changes in behaviour, that peak would have been higher, would probably still be rising.

Or the EuroMoMo, over a range of Western European countries. In the peak week, 85 000 deaths when the background was 55 000. (The last data point there will be higher when complete data have come in.)
https://www.euromomo.eu/

11
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 09, 2020, 11:04:16 PM »
Being ignorant of IT I have no means to judge the veracity of this, https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/ and it's conclusion "Conclusions. All papers based on this code should be retracted immediately. Imperial’s modelling efforts should be reset with a new team that isn’t under Professor Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results with published code from day one. "

One does not need to know much IT for that. I am just a physicist. Experimental, but published together with quantum chemists.

And I agree that this looks horrible. Code that does this is not is unusable.

Incredible. Really incredible that this was a highly regarded research group.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/second-analysis-of-fergusons-model/
Quote
It’s unbelievable that a decision of this magnitude was based off a single model“
On a single ramshackle computer implementation of the model.

12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 07, 2020, 06:42:25 PM »
Latest numbers on total mortality in the Netherlands looks much better than what I had expected:



The latest data point is about 50 % higher than the lab-confirmed numbers.
https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

The European Mortality Monitor has also been updated:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
There the decrease in the latest datapoints is due to delays in reporting.

Sweden has a highest z of 15. Worse than neighbours, better than Belgium (30), France (22), Italy (23), Netherlands (24), Spain (35), England (44), Scotland (16), Wales (20).

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: May 02, 2020, 02:28:46 PM »
I think one of the main reasons that so many elderly died in Italy, besides air pollution and general population health, was that they let the disease run rampant in nursing homes. In fact, they even sent patients there because there weren't enough beds in some hospitals.

The Swedish government also admitted that more efforts should have been made to isolate the elderly better. That this was a mistake.

There are still not enough efforts, but it is not in the hands of central Government. This is an infuriating piece about the callous attitude of a municipal administrator of nursing homes: https://www.ekuriren.se/nyheter/sormland/kommunchefernas-svar-vi-har-inte-haft-nagra-siffror-sm5392632.aspx

Staff is still working at different homes, also here in the municipality where I live. And I heard from someone working there, who is very afraid (does not have dinner with her elderly husband at home), that other staff are not distancing.

Also, people keep quiet about symptoms. Both staff and residents.


14
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 30, 2020, 05:13:29 PM »
Sweden shouldn't have gambled the life or their citizens like this.

Look at the new updates on total excess mortality on https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

The highest deviations are in England. (The Netherlands had King's Day, unreliable data.)

Sweden is lower than many countries. And it is mostly Stockholm. Skåne and Malmö which is nextdoor to Copenhagen has a lower number of Covid deaths per capita than Denmark.

And the epidemic is not over yet. Locking up people in small flats is also gambling with peoples' lives. Especially with the poorer ones.

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 29, 2020, 11:42:56 AM »
Maybe the excessive, unnecessary media and mass hysteria and fearmongering plays a role as well. But we'll never know, given that the majority determines what perceived reality is.

Here in Sweden, a shooting makes it in the news. A fatal car accident too. A deadly bus accident gets headlines. The tsunami and the sinking of the Estonia dominated the news for a long time.

This epidemic has many more deaths already now, in this country alone. It affects everyone's daily life.

How is news coverage "excessive"?

16
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 26, 2020, 05:13:11 PM »
The Walrus data is also obviously selected to misinform. Its treating a week for which the data isn't all in yet as if deaths that hadn't yet been reported hadn't happened.

Sigh. It is the same as on https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
There the last weeks are clearly marked as "corrected for delayed registration", but that is only partial.

Just keep the conspiracy stuff to yourself.

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 25, 2020, 11:49:37 PM »
Yes, that graph is incomplete. Look at these data from EuroMoMo. A huge excess of deaths, lots of people at working age. The last data points are not complete. And clearly, the peak would grow higher without measures.

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 23, 2020, 02:45:53 PM »
Total mortality in The Netherlands going down:



Again excess mortality about twice as many as laboratory-confirmed Covid deaths.

https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 19, 2020, 01:29:17 PM »
It’s not often that I praise the reporting in the assorted organs of News UK. Usually quite the reverse! However this morning I commend to you this frankly shocking article by the Sunday Times Insight team:

http://CoV-eHealth.org/2020/04/19/how-britain-sleepwalked-into-disaster/

Quote
I strongly suggest that you read the article from start to finish, always assuming that you have a strong enough stomach...

Merely business as usual in the age of “Fake News” and “Truth Decay“.

I don't think that is fair at all.

When health authorities say that the risk is low, that is the current risk for the population for that day. Of course that is adjusted when the prevalence increases.

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 17, 2020, 08:35:03 PM »
The excess deaths, compared to average years, could be attributed to the virus.  This is not that different what agencies have done in the past when they combine the deaths due to respiratory illness.
Yes, that is what one can see for example at the European Mortality Monitor: http://www.euromomo.eu/

This is also done for heat waves.

One can see that excess mortality now is approximately proportional to normal mortality in different age brackets:


(The latest datapoint is always a bit lower because of lags in reporting.)


21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 16, 2020, 09:46:15 PM »
A study of Dutch blood donors has found that around 3 percent have developed antibodies against the new coronavirus, health authorities have said, an indication of what percentage of the Dutch population may have already had the disease.
"This study shows that about 3 percent of Dutch people have developed antibodies against the coronavirus," Van Dissel said. "You can calculate from that, it's several hundred thousand people" in a country of 17 million.

The RIVM has previously said that an immunity level of about 60% is required for herd immunity to take effect.

There are 28,158 confirmed coronavirus cases in the Netherlands, but only the very ill and healthcare workers are currently being tested.
Back of the envelope calculation gives 3% x 17M = 500k true infections count in the Netherlands. Official death count is 3134 but true death count probably around 5000-6000 based on total mortality. (If anyone can provide actual mortality data it would be better...).

Yes, https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland gives a factor of 2.




22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 14, 2020, 12:58:55 PM »
Friend is worrying about the forest fire near Tjernobyl.

Well, there was also a bit of a panic in Sweden in the spring of 1986. After that, a few thousand children in the Ukraine got thyroid cancer. Usually treatable.

Now we will be run over by the coronavirus, Tens of thousands will get pneumonia, for which there is no real treatment, which is often fatal.

And the country is not panicking.

Maybe this is due to the mass media being very reassuring etc.

The world is upside down. The Zone may be the safest place on Earth.

23
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 13, 2020, 08:12:25 PM »
I had a look at the Excel file over total deaths by Statistics Sweden:
https://scb.se/om-scb/nyheter-och-pressmeddelanden/scb-publicerar-preliminar-statistik-over-doda-i-sverige/

The latest complete 7-day period is March 24 till March 30. In the graph, the 2020 average for that is 271 per day, a bit above the background of the average of the five previous years of 258 per day.

It is the first week where a Covid19-signal can be seen, most clearly in the region of Stockholm:
     2018: 346 deaths
     2019: 310
     2020: 463

The number of corona deaths in that 7-day period from https://c19.se/Sweden/Stockholm is 70 (10 per day).

This may suggest that also in Sweden only about half the number of Covid deaths is counted.


24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 10, 2020, 12:59:32 PM »
just saw interviews with Italian mayors .. they are convinced mortality has been much higher , at least double that recorded. This echos the reports from Spain and the UK .. if only hospital deaths with a confirmed test are counted , then even health workers now dying at home (UK) do not count

No need for guessing anymore, it is showing up in total death rates at http://www.euromomo.eu/

See different countries and regions for detail.

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 10, 2020, 11:16:57 AM »
Now - of course - humanity may fail to extirpate this virus. In that case, we will lose 4-12% of the population over the next year or two, and it will become an ongoing predator, culling the old and infirm, the unhealthy, and the weak. In time, those who are genetically less vulnerable will prevail and have children, lessening the impact of the virus; and conversely - suppressing those genetic lines that are less able to withstand its ravages.

Sam

Extirpation has only succeeded with smallpox (almost). It needs a vaccine.

And Sam keeps ignoring data. I am sure he knows the Gangelt result where 15 % had had the infection at the time of the study. Death rates are ten times lower than his lower boundary. Lower than 0.4 % of the population (which is about 10 times as bad as a bad flu season).

Data should be more convincing than such looong pieces of overly dramatic prose.

26
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 09, 2020, 07:41:45 PM »
Dutch mortality monitor through the roof:



Again, the excess deaths were about twice as many as the lab-confirmed corona deaths in that week (936).

https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

27
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 04, 2020, 09:38:33 PM »
Quote
The week of 19 march had 871-1181 more deaths then usual.
World meter shows 179 total deaths Sunday 22 march for  Netherlands.  :o

Worldmeter shows deaths with a corona diagnosis.

This shows all deaths: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

Excess deaths was about 1000.

Same kind of difference as in Nembro.

28
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 04:47:38 PM »
Does the fact the western european countries are in the 'top' with deaths/million say something about how bad we are reacting on the virus or how bad the statistics in other countries are?
It depends a bit on the size of sampling. Some states of the US would be very high too.

Many peripheral regions will get it later.

29
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 03:53:37 PM »
Re: the graph above.
In the winter of 2018 our ICU's weren't overrun.


Yeah, what happened there? What's the reason for that spike?

In the first months of 2018, there was the seasonal flu. About 9000 excess deaths in the Netherlands, 0.05 % of the population. Often in care homes or just at home. One sees a lower than usual mortality in the months after that peak.

Notice also the small global-warming related spike last summer.

The last data is deaths from a week ago. It will continue rising.

30
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 03, 2020, 02:40:26 PM »
Dutch mortality data:


The excess mortality is about twice as high as the number of confirmed corona deaths in that period.

There was a slight excess for people 45-54 years old, an excess for the 54-64 year-olds, and a large excess for the older people.

https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

31
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 02, 2020, 11:26:47 PM »
The European Mortality Monitor updated:
http://www.euromomo.eu/


Significant upticks in Italy and Spain, also in England

32
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 02, 2020, 05:10:05 AM »
...
I follow the statistics, projections and reports published daily by Swedish health authorities. As of today some new advice and recommendations regarding distancing on public transport and in supermarkets were published. It is now forbidden to visit care homes for the elderly.
...

Swedish bureaucracy at its worst. On Tuesday March 31 they finally decided that our elderly need to be protected. WOW!

For how long did they already know that C19 kills first of all the sick and elderly? First reports about this came in the beginning of February afaik. Statistics and scientifical evidence from Wuhan. More than 6 weeks were lost doing nothing to protect our most vulnerable groups.

Due to their negligence to react and to act in due time on evidence they had, those Swedish politicians and bureaucrats are actively killing our elderly.
Murderers they are.

Ridiculous inflammatory language.

As long as there was no community spread, it did not make any difference, right?

Then there was an advice, which many people listened to.

Now there is an order not to visit relatives in care homes (but I doubt whether it is legally enforceable).

And in the end, it won't make much of a difference. Staff will still go in and out, and have closer contact with the old than what visitors have.

33
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 11:47:58 PM »
Give me a break. When you see relatively young people spend months in the ICU or die, hundreds of dead a day needing a ice rink to place the bodies, over 80 year old being denied ICU space based on survival chances, you come back and tell me. My government was way too slow, yours sounds suicidal.

Written by a guy complaining about a "smarty tone"...

34
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 08:25:32 PM »
They can't. ICUs and hospital beds per habitant are comparable to the rest of Europe. It's a relatively big population. They will suffer a lot of government-caused pain, and COVID will become the first cause of death for a few weeks as it has happened in other countries. Hospitals will be swamped, we already know what happens then.

Governments are causing pain by confining people to their homes.

The big pain is caused by the virus. Deaths per capita will be quite similar in all countries, I expect. Eventually, by the end of this year.

(Except Kazakhstan, where the word is forbidden now.)

35
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 06:43:31 PM »
I am amazed by the figures for South Africa
https://covid19info.live/southafrica/

This country does not make the headlines, although it seems, dumbly looking at the figures, that it has curbed the outbreak far better than European countries (not to mention USA).

I just saw that a leading virologist in South Africa had died: Prof. Gita Ramjee:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-52120265
https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/prominent-virologist-gita-ramjee-dies-from-coronavirus/article31223651.ece

There must be many non-prominent people that died. Without being recorded as corona-related deaths.

36
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: April 01, 2020, 04:43:37 PM »
My university has circulated this letter regarding COVID from Professor John Ioannidis, an epidemiologist from Stanford.

Quote
Importantly, this year we are dealing with thousands, not tens of millions deaths.

That is already out of date (12 000 deaths in Italy alone now).

If current death rates continue for two weeks, there will be millions.

Is this a Trumpist?

37
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 01:09:56 PM »
@pietkuip what WaPo forgets to mention is that, in countries like Taiwan or Singapore, kids can go to school 'normally' but following significant protection measures and equipment. That's how they contain it.

This is not just some journalist. This is a leading epidemiologist:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Osterholm

Don't think that you know things that he forgot.

38
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 08:56:15 AM »
Actually, the more relevant piece by Osterholm to this particular discussion is in the WaPo from March 21st "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure" But it's behind a paywall (I thought WaPo wasn't doing that for covid related pieces! )

If anyone can get a copy of all or some of it, that would be appreciated.
 

Here it comes (I do not do this for the newest articles, but this was written a while ago).
He sounds like the state experts here in Sweden.

Quote
Covid-19 will go away eventually in one of two ways. Either we will develop a vaccine to prevent it, or the virus will burn itself out as the spread of infection comes to confer a form of herd immunity on the population. Neither of those possibilities will occur quickly.

It is time to face reality. We urgently need a unified national strategy, one informed by the best science about stopping diseases like covid-19 and from virus control efforts in China, Singapore and Hong Kong, as well as realistic projections of the human and economic toll of any option we pursue. Our way of life cannot survive an indefinite series of short-term action plans.

We have to ask what we hope to accomplish with limited self-quarantines and shelter-in-place directives. Clearly, as one objective, we seek to “flatten the curve” in an effort to keep our already overburdened health-care system from being overrun. The ability of our hospitals to continue providing care to a flood of covid-19 patients, while still treating the other patients they normally have, all the while protecting health-care professionals, will be a major factor in reducing bad outcomes for victims of the coronavirus and other illnesses as well.

But how do we actually accomplish this? What happens after a several-week moratorium on normal activity? Does the president, governor or mayor declare another? While California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) has made a courageous move by locking down his state, how long can 40 million California residents be kept at home? And will it be long enough to make a significant difference?

China and Italy have imposed near-draconian lockdowns in an effort to halt the spread of covid-19. But how and when will these two “test” nations return to normal life? And when they do, will there be a major second wave of cases? If that happens, should they simply “rinse and repeat”?

As a country, with momentum building for a possible national shutdown directive, we are on the verge of ringing a giant bell that we don’t know how to un-ring.

Yet we don’t, for example, have good data on the real impact of closing public and private K-12 schools on the spread of covid-19. Hong Kong and Singapore, advanced city-states that experienced the outbreak early, both attempted to respond quickly and efficiently. Hong Kong closed schools; Singapore did not, and there was hardly any difference in the rate of transmission. The second-order effect of shutting schools is that hardest hit will be those least able to afford to miss work to care for homebound children. And what of our health professionals with children? Add to that firefighters, police officers, utility workers, delivery drivers and other essential personnel, and the magnitude of the problem is clear.

The Imperial College of London has produced a sobering study on possible covid-19 strategies. Three scenarios compare the outcomes of flattening the curve (mitigation), suppression (long-term quarantine) and letting the virus take its natural course (doing nothing), modeling the levels of disease and death for each course. The stark takeaway: Significantly reducing the number of serious illnesses and deaths would require a near-total lockdown until an effective vaccine is available, probably at least 18 months from now.

Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores, theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold. We can’t have everyone stay home and still produce and distribute the basics needed to sustain life and fight the disease.

We are in uncharted territory. But the best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and “run” society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.

Very soon, we may have to acknowledge that attempting to stretch out cases in the hopes of keeping the curve reasonably flat is unworkable. Then, as we wait for either our scientific or natural redeemer to come, we can start trying to put things as back to normal as we can — doing our best to protect those at high risk, but acknowledging that people will get sick, some will die, and our health-care system is going to be overrun to a great extent no matter what we do.


There is no black-or-white option here. We will have to figure out what shade of gray we can accept and apply. We will get through this, but hard and painful choices are inescapable.

39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 11:11:17 PM »
In the meantime, cursing is no reason for me to stay inside. I intend to go to work tomorrow at the university. The canteen will still be open.

So - cursing offends you. But the huge death tolls don't. Man that is quite the set of values and priorities you have.

Sam

At least your personal insults were uncharacteristically concise!

It is just that I don't find cursing or insults terribly convincing.

40
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:59:17 PM »
Seeing how you don't get it maybe this is more your level.
Watch.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Side_Eye_26_VIRUSES_VS_EVERYONE_09.gif

That animated gif is misleading. Would maybe apply to an STD, but not to this bug. This epidemic is more like a forest fire. Removing a single tree does not have any effect whatsoever on the course of a wildfire.

This is becoming another of those Neven's branded 'stupid discussions', but @pietkuip, you seem just fine with catching it, becoming a vector, spread it to six or seven, and, for thinking only about yourself, collaborating to collapse hospitals sooner than later.
Not saying you don't do it, only that science and past data seem to support this outcome. If you're OK with it...
Enjoy the canteen.
Take care of you, and maybe your grandpas!

Parents and grandparents are beyond the reach of this bug.

It does not matter whether I am ok with getting it or not. There is no escape.
If I develop pneumonia, I may choose to die in my own bed.

41
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:27:00 PM »
Quote
I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.
I give Sweden two weeks before they get it .
Stay the fuck at home.
We have lock down here only essential business running all else is closed.
The police are pulling over cars and asking what you are doing.
No one is being prosecuted or anything  it is simply a genial friendly reminder from the local plod  to the very small minority ignoring the directive .
Stay the fuck at home.

Did I say it enough ?
Stay the fuck at home for fucks sake .

Sweden got it. We know that the situation will be much worse two weeks from now. Already one week from now, more changes in behaviour are likely to be advised. There are also legal preparations for emergency measures.

In the meantime, cursing is no reason for me to stay inside. I intend to go to work tomorrow at the university. The canteen will still be open.

42
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:02:42 PM »
Why should I listen to German orders? (And from which Bundesland anyway?)

You should listen to people like Sam, Sigma_squared, SteveMD, etc. The info is all here in this very thread! Don't they tell a fucking convincing story?

Sam is not convincing, discards data that do not fit in his view of the situation.

A-team was posting rubbish by a quack, got support from several others here (I don't remember names).

Achimid is a mask-fundamentalist. Supported the Texan raid in Mexico!

So, frankly, I am not impressed with this crowd, the wide-spread disdain for experts here. Now for example a rant by someone against Fauci.

I hear the reasoned advice by the experts of the Swedish health authority and I follow it. Would probably also follow it in cases where I did not agree. Would certainly follow local orders.

I have no illusions about the future: different policies won't make much of a difference in the end.


43
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:36:42 PM »
"They actually started preparing for this on Dec. 31. They were testing on Dec. 31," Kullar said.

That cannot be true. Unless he means taking temperatures.

44
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:30:52 PM »
I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled today to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

Freedom bites everyone in the ass when you grab it when you shouldn't.

I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.

Why should I listen to German orders? (And from which Bundesland anyway?)

45
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:22:33 PM »

pps: I'm a beaten up old man.That Spanish health data*** says when it comes to the last line....(i.e dead)

                           Total          Mujeres     Hombres
    Defunción         1044              369        675 (4,7)

What the last ISCIII report has discovered is a big anomaly in Spain deaths statistics. When looking at deceases from all causes past week, the numbers show a huge positive anomaly wrt previous years, clearly due to covid-19. However, the official death count by covid-19 is about HALF that anomaly! The reason of this discrepancy is not clear and is being investigated. Apparently, some people are not being tested after death and they had never been tested (did not get to hospital even???). Others were assigned an existing condition as reason of death (cancer, autoimmune disease, etc). Who knows. The perpetrators are investigating so we probably won't ever know.

So you cannot trust the statistics on deaths even.

Not all corona-related deaths are recorded. Why go to the hospital when you won't get any help there? Dutch doctors are now asking there patients what they want when they get the virus. I know that I would rather die at home than in a sports arena.

The Dutch mortality statistics show the same thing: a clear uptick in the most recent week with numbers, much larger than the officially diagnosed number of corona deaths that week.

Next week's data will go off scale.



From: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland


46
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 09:03:20 PM »
Is Sweden now the only country that's going for group immunity ?

Is there any other way? Does any country believe they can hold out until mass vaccination would be available? Or a cure?

I watched https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/
In that Japanese video, the government expert was not confident that they would be able to avoid overshoots of the healthcare capacity.

I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

China.

China still keeps the people of Wuhan locked up. Food is delivered to them. That works because Beijing and Shanghai have that power in a dictatorship.

But they will need to lift the restrictions. While that Japanese documentary showed lines at the hospital. And their medical officer was not optimistic.

47
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 08:50:04 PM »
Is Sweden now the only country that's going for group immunity ?

Is there any other way? Does any country believe they can hold out until mass vaccination would be available? Or a cure?

I watched https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/
In that Japanese video, the government expert was not confident that they would be able to avoid overshoots of the healthcare capacity.

I am happy not to be locked up. Cycled today to a café in the countryside for coffee and cake.

48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 12:50:32 AM »
A well-thought out post Grubbbengrabben. I was wondering about the rationale behind the Swedish situation.
I believe 1 and 2 are wrong. Experience in Italy has shown that young asymptomatic people were major drivers of spreading the disease. In addition, not only old people are at risk, and hospitalization rates are high even for young people, which could lead to health system overwhelm.
I hope for your sake that I am wrong.
This article explains some social differences:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/as-the-rest-of-europe-lives-under-lockdown-sweden-keeps-calm-and-carries-on

In the end, there will be few differences. And they may be related more to other stuff (smoking for example) than to policy.

In the meantime, we might as well try to enjoy the Spring.

49
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 28, 2020, 10:21:30 PM »
Interesting Japanese documentary:
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/5001289/

Japan is struggling to contain this, to keep track of clusters and shut them down.

Also interesting footage about Wuhan. Not much reason for optimism there.

50
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 06:48:00 PM »
Deaths ticked up in the Netherlands in the week from March 12 to 18.

This graph shows all deaths, independent of diagnosis.

Many more deaths than usually among the 75+ group.
Concentrated in the southern provinces.
https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland


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