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Messages - Tom_Mazanec

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 29, 2020, 05:45:34 PM »
Ron Conte's revised predictions:
But since August and Sept. were lower, and October higher, that implies the curve is higher in Winter. Revised prediction for cases of Covid-19 in Winter of 2020 to 2021 (at 5 to 10% higher).

Nov. 2.44 to 2.55 million cases
Dec. 3.15 to 3.3 million cases
Jan. 3.5 to 3.7 million cases
Feb. 3.6 to 3.75 million cases
Mar. 3.32 to 3.83 million cases
Apr. 2.85 to 3.0 million cases
May 2.3 to 2.4 million cases
Jun. 1.5 to 1.6 million cases

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 29, 2020, 05:12:28 PM »
One more Dr. Demento

Full Moon - Elvira

Knock-on Effects Knock out Economy Like Dominoes
The major knock-on effects of the COVID shutdown are now starting to stack against each other, pushing city centers into the dust. Here are some of the big moves that are as characteristic of the US as they are of the world overall.

Former Fed Economist: This Recession Is ‘Unlike Anything We’ve Seen In The Past’
Ultimately, it’s worth re-emphasizing that “this recession is something unlike anything that we have seen in the past,” Cunningham said. “Some segments of the economy are recovering. At the same time, we’ve got some slowness that’s going to be a problem for sectors in the economy for some time to come. And that bifurcation is a challenge that we’re going to be facing for a very long time—at least until we get a real handle on the global public health pandemic that put us into the situation in the first place.”

A deep recession should hurt Trump's reelection bid, but this isn't a usual downturn
"A lot of recessions are caused by high interest rates or the unwinding of a bubble," said Ashok Bhatia, deputy chief investment officer of fixed income with Neuberger Berman in an interview with CNN Business.
"One should be careful of saying that this recession is bad for the incumbent since it had a much different cause," he added.

Business Next: The recession has hit Erie County harder than its neighboring counties
The effects of the 2020 recession seem more durable in Erie County, which spent five consecutive months this year with an unemployment rate worse than its Great Recession peak. No other Western New York county had a streak longer than four months, and Wyoming County endured only one month in 2020 that was worse than the previous recession.

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: October 29, 2020, 04:55:54 PM »
Who are science’s frequent flyers? Climate researchers
Survey finds climate scholars take more flights on average per year — but make greater effort to offset their emissions.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 29, 2020, 11:06:16 AM »
Another from the Dr. Demento show:

Comin' Back For More - C. W. McCall

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: October 28, 2020, 05:39:19 PM »
Tor, that is the opposite of what would be expected of AGW, if I understand it correctly...fewer storms but stronger ones.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 28, 2020, 05:34:54 PM »
Any chance of state-ifying the District of Columbia, Tor?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 28, 2020, 04:28:24 PM »
From last Saturday's Dr. Demento:

Attack of the Killer Tomatoes - Lewis Lee

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 28, 2020, 02:02:48 PM »
Wouldn’t that be bigger than a continent?

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 28, 2020, 01:26:02 PM »
3 is likely, but Trump winning a landslide is the least likely (I won’t say impossible for anything anymore, however).

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 28, 2020, 12:20:13 PM »
Ron Conte is a somewhat heterodox (three comings of Christ?) amateur Catholic theologian. He, however, has tried to list every possible outcome of this election. Some of them are rather...interesting (in the Chinese sense). I would have thought some of them to be science fantasy (not even science fiction) a few years ago, but I can't totally write any of them off, after all that has happened this year. Take a look:

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 28, 2020, 11:53:45 AM »

Pretty Girls Everywhere - Eugene Church 1959

The politics / Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
« on: October 28, 2020, 11:48:18 AM »
I voted Biden by 2% figuring "shy Trump voters" but Biden might get more than that, so if it is 2-5% I will not be surprised.

The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: October 28, 2020, 11:45:15 AM »
Mike Snyder has fooled me not once, but twice, so take any details from this with a grain of salt.
However, he cites a lot of third party sources in this article, and I think this time he might be right.

How long will it take to count all the votes?
Personally, I am anticipating that this election is going to be a colossal mess.  As I have been documenting on The Most Important News, voting anomalies have already been popping up all over the nation, and I think that counting all of the mail-in ballots is going to take much more time than anticipated.

And any legal battles over the counting of the votes will just make the process even more painful.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 27, 2020, 05:00:19 PM »
"This is a disaster, people are going to start dying, as a matter a fact they started dying already - not because they have the Covid, but from the Covid because the Covid has impaired the ability to deliver care. That's what is happening right now," Taveras concluded.
So even with deaths barely over a million, the "indirectly" part of my poll is coming into effect.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 27, 2020, 04:12:23 PM »

It's Still Rock and Roll to Me - Billy Joel

I heard this song in the Dollar store today.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: October 27, 2020, 11:56:58 AM »
Extreme 'Black Widow' Star Identified as Source of Mystery Gamma Radiation
Now, astronomers have solved the mystery and pinned down that second star by searching gamma-ray data obtained between 2008 and 2018. Together, the two stars constitute one of the weirdest binary systems we've ever seen.

"The binary star system and the neutron star at its heart, now known as PSR J1653-0158, set new records," said astronomer Lars Nieder of the Albert Einstein Institute Hannover in Germany.

"We have discovered the galactic dance of a super heavyweight with a flyweight: At slightly more than twice the mass of our Sun, the neutron star is extraordinarily heavy. Its companion has about six times the density of lead, but only about 1 percent the mass of our Sun.

"This 'odd couple' orbits every 75 minutes, more quickly than all known comparable binaries."

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: October 27, 2020, 11:53:04 AM »
Scientists Reveal What May Be the Largest Flying Bird Ever
Imagine an albatross with a hacksaw for a mouth. Set that strange creature about 50 million years in the past and you’ve got the image of a pelagornithid, a group of ancient avians that included some of the largest flying birds of all time. And now paleontologists have uncovered in that group what may be the largest known flying birds ever, with wingspans of roughly 20 feet.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 27, 2020, 10:41:13 AM »

Maggie May - Rod Stewart 1971

Ranks of the Long-Term Unemployed Growing
The ranks of the long-term unemployed – those out of work for 27 weeks or more – grew to 2.4 million in September, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That’s the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic. The last time we saw this kind of jump in long-term unemployment was during the Great Recession.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans out of work for 15 weeks to 26 weeks stands at 5 million.

To put the growing number of long-term unemployed workers into some historical context, long-term unemployment hit a record high of 6.5 million and made up 44% of all unemployed workers in March 2010. That was 10-and-a-half months after the official end of the Great Recession in the summer of 2009. Long-term unemployed workers already make up 20% of the total unemployed just 8 months after the US economy fell into recession.

Next Up: Global Depression
1. History offers a basic template for viral pandemics in which the initial wave dies back in summer and then re-ignites in a second larger Wave 2 in autumn and winter.

2. Humanity's default responses to novel crises: denial, fantasy, magical thinking and manipulating data to support a simplistic, emotionally satisfying ideological position.

Doug Casey on Why the 2020s Will Likely Be the Most Turbulent Decade in 250 Years
So what’s going to happen?

People appear to want leaders—to be told what to do. They’ve been programmed to be irresponsible and to believe that somebody else—the State—is going to take care of them.

The average citizen of every country has become much less responsible as the State has grown much, much larger over the last century.

With that being the case, when there are problems, people are going to look for a strong leader—and they’re going to get strong leaders. It’s true all over the world. We already see this with Narendra Modi in India, Vladimir Putin in Russia, Xi Jinping in China, Erdogan in Turkey, Bolsonaro in Brazil, Fernandez in Argentina, and more.

Countries everywhere are going towards so-called strong leadership. It’s shaping up like the ’30s with Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin, Roosevelt, and the rest of them.

As the situation gets completely out of control, people are going to look for dictatorial leaders to provide direction and safety. This decade is probably going to be the most dangerous since the Industrial Revolution overturned the basis of society over 200 years ago.

No end in sight for record-high public debt fueled by COVID-19
TOKYO -- Countries around the world have expanded fiscal expenditure due to the coronavirus pandemic, causing public debt to balloon to unprecedented levels. The debt-to-gross domestic product ratio of advanced economies in 2021 will reach a record high of 125%.

Recession risk grows as Covid-19 cases continue to surge
London (CNN Business)The world's top economies took huge steps in recent months to recover from the worst recession in a generation. Now, with coronavirus cases surging again, that progress could be reversed.

Pandemic recession: Economy rebounds slightly, unemployment still high
Economists welcomed the declines as evidence that the job market is still recovering from the pandemic recession. But some cautioned that the improvement could prove short-lived. With confirmed infections having neared 60,000 in the past week, the most since July, consumers have been unable or reluctant to shop, travel, dine out or congregate in crowds -- a trend that has led some employers to keep cutting jobs. Several states are reporting a record number of hospitalizations from the virus.

"We doubt it will continue as COVID infections spread rapidly, pushing down demand for discretionary consumer services, especially in the hospitality sector," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, referring to the portion of the economy that includes hard-hit hotels, restaurants and bars.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 26, 2020, 02:29:41 PM »
From article above: "Geology’s human footprint is enough to spur rage"   (my bolding)

Correction: Geology’s civlisation-human footprint is enough to spur rage

Sorry to keep repeating this, but it is an important distinction!
Perhaps even Western civilization? Or have the other twenty-odd civilizations in the last five thousand years been as bad?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 26, 2020, 02:27:43 PM »

Bang a Gong (Get It On) - T. Rex

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: October 26, 2020, 11:16:43 AM »
Europe's First Industrial Complex Shows the Brilliance of Ancient Engineers
An international team of scientists has reconstructed the hydraulic operations of the 1,900-year-old Barbegal industrial watermill complex in southern France, revealing the subtle brilliance of antiquity's engineers.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 26, 2020, 11:13:39 AM »

Mack the Knife - Bobby Darrin

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 25, 2020, 11:13:47 PM »
And the lack of leadership is clearly another world pandemic. The minister asks the citizens stay in the country for vacation then goes personally to Crete.
So USA is not exceptional. I believe Brazil may be worse than the USA from what I've read here. And other countries.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 25, 2020, 03:35:41 PM »

Saturday In The Park - Chicago

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 25, 2020, 01:04:13 PM »

De De Dinah - Frankie Avalon

The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: October 25, 2020, 12:48:18 AM »
Just saw a TV show in which a character asks “Has any great social evil ever been ended without violence?”
I am glad I was not the character that question was posed to.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 24, 2020, 07:49:21 PM »

Fortunate Son - Creedence Clearwater Revival

Asia suffering 'worst recession in living memory'
Growth forecasts for the region have been downgraded again, this time from -1.6% to -2.2% for this year.

However, the glimmer of hope is for a bounceback of almost 7% next year, according to the IMF.

China will play a big part in the region's growth next year, with its latest data showing continued recovery from the downturn caused by the virus.

But there are still many black clouds on the horizon as countries, including India, the Philippines and Malaysia, continue to battle with Covid-19 infections.

ECB Seen Preparing More Aid as Virus Spread Derails Economy
Surging coronavirus infections and renewed lockdowns will prompt the European Central Bank to step up monetary stimulus later this year, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Respondents predict 500 billion euros ($590 billion) will be added to the 1.35 trillion-euro pandemic bond-buying program, with most anticipating action in December. The Governing Council will probably keep policy unchanged when it meets on Thursday to discuss the economic damage, though some analysts expect President Christine Lagarde to signal that more support is on the way.

With governments forced to restrict travel, close restaurants and impose curfews to contain the pandemic, the euro area’s recovery is already flagging, raising the specter of a double-dip recession. Lagarde has said the pickup in infections came sooner than expected, presenting a clear risk to the economic outlook.

Double Dip Recession Tweets of the Day
The Covid recession isn't even over yet, but there is already talk of a double dip coming.
Numerous tweets.

Long-term unemployment spikes for millions of Americans. Aid that’s kept them afloat may end soon
It’s been more than seven months since the coronavirus pandemic hit, leading to sweeping shelter in place orders in March that put millions of Americans out of work. While some of those laid off due to shutdowns have been able to return to their jobs, permanent unemployment has increased.

In September, long-term unemployment, or those that have been out of work for 27 weeks or more, jumped to 2.4 million, the highest thus far in the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nearly 800,000 out of work Americans moved into the long-term unemployed category from August to September, the largest month-over-month increase ever, according to Michele Evermore, senior policy analyst at the National Employment Law Project.

At the same time, the number of Americans out of work for 15 weeks to 26 weeks was nearly 5 million in September.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 24, 2020, 06:17:43 PM »

Two Silhouettes (on the shade) ::: Hermans Hermits

Well, this Oct 23 is 80º F in Twinsburg, which is kinda weird.

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: October 23, 2020, 04:12:40 PM »
Impressive Water Purifcation System Found at Ancient Maya City
More than 2,000 years ago in the ancient city of Tikal in northern Guatemala, Maya people apparently utilized a mineral called zeolite to purify their drinking water. The discovery, published in the journal Scientific Reports by anthropologists from the University of Cincinnati, represents the oldest known example of water purification in the Western Hemisphere.

The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: October 23, 2020, 04:07:44 PM »
Of course it is possible that Biden may be the beneficiary of Trump's Executive Order.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 23, 2020, 04:06:12 PM »
Here are a couple Friday you-like-not-me devoted to the memory of summer now past:

Summer Breeze - Seals & Croft 1972

Hot Fun In The Summertime - Sly and the Family Stone 1969

Over half Europe's small firms fear for survival, survey finds
LONDON (Reuters) - Over half the small and medium-sized companies which together provide jobs for two-thirds of European workers fear for their survival in the coming 12 months, according to a survey released by management consultancy McKinsey on Thursday.

The real cause of the coronavirus recession
Iowa has never had a statewide mask mandate, and it lifted its few restrictions earlier than a lot of other states. But economic recovery has been slow, suggesting that this downturn is due more to individual choices than the lockdowns put in place by blue states, as some Republicans have suggested. Today, we’ll talk about a case study around Iowa in The New York Times. Plus: Elon Musk, infosec and Kiss.

RELEASE: CAP Brief Finds This Is the First Recession Where Women Have Lost More Jobs Than Men
Washington, D.C. — A new issue brief from the Center for American Progress finds that the coronavirus recession is the first recession since the advent of modern U.S. employment statistics for women in which women have lost more jobs than men, leading some to refer to this recession as a “she-cession.” While in every previous recession on record, women lost less than one job for every job that men lost, between February and April, women lost more than 12.1 million jobs while men lost just more than 10 million. There is also evidence that many of these job losses will be long-lasting. The last time women’s employment-to-population ratio was this low was in 1986. Following that low, it took nearly a decade for women’s employment rates to reach pre-recession levels.

Women of color have lost their jobs at higher rates than their white counterparts. Black women’s employment fell 18.2 percent from its peak compared with 16.7 percent for white women. Asian American women have gone from having the lowest unemployment rate in February at 3 percent—tied with white women—to 15.9 percent at peak unemployment. Latina women have also experienced dramatic employment and labor force declines, with job losses out of phase with the rest of the recovery.

The Recession Is Over, But Don't Get Too Excited
With record economic growth and hiring this summer, we may soon learn that the recession is already technically over.

But the end of the recession doesn’t mean the economy has recovered, only that the worst is behind us in terms of lost economic output, income, and jobs.

Expect the recovery in GDP to take another year, while regaining the lost jobs to take closer to two years. Getting back to the former trajectory will take longer still.

Investors should be mindful that the path forward will be slow and uneven, even after the recession is declared to be over.

COVID-19 crisis to speed up depletion of Social Security
US retirement and disability trust funds could run dry as early as 2029 and 2023, respectively, a bipartisan research group warns.
I'm on disability :o

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 23, 2020, 12:22:30 PM »
Looking at these charts, we are not just at #1, we are champions by a yuuuuge margin. There is a yawning gap between where we are and what used to be the record. This is scary.

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 22, 2020, 07:32:56 PM »

WE Gotta Get Out of This Place - Animals

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 22, 2020, 05:25:08 PM »
Ten more Twinsburg students positive in Oct 12 week.

How the coronavirus is exacerbating global inequality, hunger
Whereas previous recessions were fairly even in terms of who was affected, in this recession, the top 25% has bounced back completely, while the bottom 2% has been smacked hard. The reason is simple: working from home. Bankers, lawyers, accountants, academics, and scores of other white collar workers, have been able to work remotely. The work environment may have changed, but they got to keep their jobs. Those employed in restaurants, hotels, shopping malls, etc. haven’t been so lucky. Their jobs have disappeared, and won’t be coming back anytime soon, especially now that we’re in the second wave.

That is what makes this pandemic so tragic – many have been badly affected, but depending on where you sit on the social spectrum, you may not have noticed. Zakaria makes a great point: “Has the relative normalcy of life for the elites prevented us from understanding the true severity of the problem? For tens of millions in America, and for hundreds of millions around the world, this is the Great Depression.”

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 22, 2020, 01:33:44 PM »

Because - Dave Clark Five

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 21, 2020, 07:40:14 PM »

Sarah Vaughan -- Broken Hearted Melody

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 21, 2020, 01:05:44 PM »

Go All The Way - Raspberries

The rest / Re: Archaeology/Paleontology news
« on: October 21, 2020, 01:00:56 PM »
Long-Lost Medieval Monastery Discovered Beneath Parking Garage in England
Carmelite friars established Whitefriars in 1270, but the religious site was destroyed during the Protestant Reformation

The Native Americans had agriculture (Corn) so that wasn’t the problem. What made Europe so depleted so early? I thought the Industrial Revolution was the mistake but the first explorers got here before it started. Where did Europe go wrong?

The rest / Re: Good music
« on: October 21, 2020, 11:59:09 AM »
That one is worth being an American hit. We have foreign languages get hits every once in awhile and with google translate we can even find out the lyrics.

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: October 21, 2020, 11:55:00 AM »
I know that. I was just highlighting the vicious circle effect.

Antarctica / Re: Ice Apocalypse - MULTIPLE METERS SEA LEVEL RISE
« on: October 21, 2020, 12:34:35 AM »
Of course rising temperatures will increase the demand for cooling technology and infrastructure.

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 20, 2020, 09:21:06 PM »
Maybe people are trying to get out of the cities in part because of the urban heat island effect?

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