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Messages - KiwiGriff

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1
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 07:17:18 PM »
At most, Tesla could go bankrupt at some point.

If Tesla goes bankwupt it will not stop the changes Tesla has made to the car industry
They have one of the highest margins per car in the auto industry. They make losses only because of the investments in new capacity. Tesla's cars are being benchmark agent the best of legacy industry and come out ahead. The industry has no choice but to follow Tesla's lead into electrification because ICE can not compete with electric cars.
At worse Tesla go bankwupt and someone else will buy the technology and the brand.
Tesla have still made the electric car revolution happen.

2
Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: Today at 09:25:48 AM »
Solar roads  are up there with vertical axis and  nozzle augmented Wind Turbines as a way to part investors and governments from their money.
They all don't work because ...the unalterable laws of physics get in the way.

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: Today at 01:22:11 AM »
Quote
Out of interest I checked the average wage for someone in full time work in Norway. The figure came back at £51,000.

Contrast the UK, which is £28,000.

Hardly surprising that Norway is sucking in so many high priced Tesla's.
The tax advantages for electric cars in Norway are driving the demand. ICE are taxed heavily electric cars exempted from this tax. Fuels are also taxed highly.

I see the MSM is doing another illogical  beat up .
Its "rich people" buying electric cars in Norway.
Well duh.
Its "rich people" who buy most new  cars in all smeging markets every where electric or not.
If you have a lower income  you are more likely to buy a used car.

4
Models are continually evaluated as to how they perform compared to observations and each other.

International climate scientists discuss first results from a new set of climate model simulations at the CMIP6 Model Analysis Workshop in Barcelona, Spain
9 April 2019

Quote
Under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), hundreds of climate researchers in modelling centres around the world are working to share, compare and analyse the latest results of global climate and Earth system models. Within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), now in its 6th phase, project simulations of the research community provide model output that will fuel climate research and climate impact studies for the next 5 to 10 years, while its careful analysis will form the basis for future climate assessments. More than 40 climate modelling centres worldwide are expected to participate in CMIP6 and some early results are now available, which have been discussed at the first CMIP6 Model Analysis Workshop held in Barcelona, Spain, from 25-29 March 2019.

“I’m really excited to see the outcome of these first CMIP6 simulations. It is amazing how collaborative the scientific community is, and with the community-driven design of CMIP6, I expect we will make considerable progress on understanding how the Earth system responds to forcing, on identifying origins and consequences of systematic model biases, and on providing robust climate projections under different future scenarios that fill critical gaps compared to those used in CMIP5”, says CMIP Panel Chair Veronika Eyring from the German Aerospace Center (DLR). “This will include significant advances in our process understanding, supported by newly available evaluation tools that allow a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of the models with observations”, says WGCM co-chair Cath Senior from the MetOffice Hadley Center in the UK.

At the time of the workshop, the CMIP6 archive included results from 12 modelling groups. As more modelling groups complete their simulations, the archive will become an increasingly rich resource for climate researchers. Based on new physical insights and newly available observations, many improvements have been made to models from CMIP5 to CMIP6, including changes in the representation of physics of the atmosphere, ocean, sea-ice, and land surface. In many cases, changes in the detailed representation of cloud and aerosol processes have been implemented. This new generation of climate models also features increases in spatial resolution, as well as inclusion of additional Earth system processes and new components. These additional processes are needed to represent key feedbacks that affect climate change, but are also likely to increase the spread of climate projections across the multi-model ensemble.
https://www.wcrp-climate.org/news/wcrp-news/1478-cmip6-first-results


   

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 17, 2019, 10:13:03 PM »
Some of the energy contained in fossil fuels is wasted when it is converted to usable forms . The mining, refining and transport of fossil fuels account for a significant amount of total energy used.
These factors together mean the amount of energy needed from renewable generation  to replace fossil fuel use is considerably less than  the energy contained in the fossil fuels used at present.

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 17, 2019, 09:30:44 AM »
Quote
there is no way to manage the load of a 20 kV power line on the consumer side.
It is not an issue of ability it is one of government and industry inertia.
Demand side control is easy. Old tech as used in NZ for generations.
Quote
Ripple control is the most common form of load control, and is used in many countries around the world, including Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, and South Africa. Ripple control involves superimposing a higher-frequency signal (usually between 100 and 1600 Hz[10]) onto the standard 50–60 Hz of the main power signal. When receiver devices attached to non-essential residential or industrial loads receive this signal, they shut down the load until the signal is disabled or another frequency signal is received.
Now days you could easy do it with a digital signal for even more flexibility.
I worked in a large industry in Auckland NZ where we manually shut down during winter peaks in demand in exchange for a cheaper power rate the rest of the time. Maybe three times a year in winter around 5.00pm to 8.00pm we would shut off the plant. Such measures mean generators don't need to start an expensive inefficient gas peaker. Not really a huge issue in many industry's as long as it is worth the effort.

 It is the will not the ability that holds us back.

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 17, 2019, 07:32:40 AM »
Miles per driver .
Quote
According to United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, Americans now drive an average of 13,476 miles per year. That’s the most in history. Do the math and the average American drives well over 1,000 miles a month.

KWh per mile Tesla3 sr+.
0.25 kWh per mile.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=41416

Miles traveled times kWh consumption. KWh needed per person per year for 100% electric cars.
13,476 * 0.25 = 3,369kwh.

Electricity generation per person.*
11,927 kWh.
https://www.worlddata.info/america/usa/energy-consumption.php

Around 28% more electricity over the next about forty years.

Confounding factors.
* Electricity per person not per driver so real percentage increase needed is less.
Not including freight and public transport.
Drilling and pumping oil, Refining crude to petrol and getting the petrol to your tank takes energy some of which is electricity.

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 16, 2019, 11:14:48 PM »
I would bet that the ratio of Aspies on this forum is greater than in the population at large.
We await the startling revelations as to what We are and how We think.

Greta has had more impact than any individual here, in all probability more than all of us here.
I wish her continuing success in shifting the overton window towards the changes humanity needs.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 16, 2019, 10:43:30 PM »
Musk is a disruptor.
Many industry's are being shaken to the core by his company's.
He is driven and focused.
That makes him an arsehole to those he pushes past on his mission.
The fossil fuel industry and legacy auto manufactures  are being made obsolete by his actions.
When it comes to renewable energy he has probably made a bigger impact than any man alive
You don't have to like him to acknowledge his successes.  I follow Tesla because I am a gear head I follow green energy because I am concerned about humanity's future
I follow musk because he is making changes to the very  foundation of both these industry's.
Do I like or worship him ....nope ! I like  the impacts he is having on our world.

10
Thank you. I reconsidered that snark but you took it well  :)
We don't know. I have read that the blob is due to a slowing AMOC  .
But it is fascinating to learn  as we both are . Our shared ideas make us both more informed.
Quote
And a third point: in summer, the effect of heat flow through the sea surface should dominate, in winter the effect of ocean currents. That is because the well-mixed surface layer of the ocean is thin, so only the uppermost part of the ocean heat transport gets to affect the surface temperature. But the thin surface layer still feels the full brunt of atmospheric changes, and even stronger than in winter, because the thermal inertia of the thin summer surface layer is small. In our paper we analysed the seasonal cycle of the temperature changes in the subpolar Atlantic. The cooling in the “cold blob” is most pronounced in winter – both in the climate model (where we know it’s due to an AMOC slowdown) and in the observations. That yet again suggests the ‘cold blob’ is driven from the ocean and not the atmosphere.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/05/if-you-doubt-that-the-amoc-has-weakened-read-this/
Seems to suggest I may be part right as to why the blob is not apparent this summer.


11

Shows an anomaly value for ice off greenlands eastern coast.
Currents

Light blue surface current from there and north.
From a paper that has more information .
https://www.sciencealert.com/we-might-have-been-wrong-about-ocean-circulation-and-it-will-have-big-impacts

Just ideas neither of us know the answers .
Trashing world respected scientists work is easy on a blog not so easy to refute their ideas in published literature  .
The blob, AMOC and the effects of Greenlands increasing melt is a topic of research that is as yet unanswered.



12
Satellite derived anomaly values for SST Represents only the surface temperature not that of the  water column.
Could the lack of ice and high absorption of solar energy by surface waters  this year be responsible for the lack of a blob in its usual position?
The Atlantic is still showing a cold patch just more southerly than  it has been.

Quote
5. DIFFERENT DEPTHS OF SST: AN IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION

Because of temperature gradients below the ocean's surface, the depth at which measurements are made will significantly impact the SST. Measurements made at only a depth of one or two molecules below the ocean's surface are considered the "interface SST" and cannot be realistically measured. Just below this, however, at a depth of roughly 10 µm is what is known as the "skin SST". The attenuation length of thermal infrared radiation corresponds to this depth. The "sub-skin SST" is at a depth of ~1 mm and corresponds to the attenuation length of microwave radiation. Beyond this depth is what is commonly referred to as the "bulk SST", "near-surface SST", or "SSTdepth". Below is an illustration of these different depths of SST, showing two different temperature gradients:

As can be discerned from the illustration above, the bulk SST (or SSTdepth) may vary greatly from the skin and sub-skin SSTs depending on the temperature gradient. The skin temperature may also vary from the sub-skin temperature for the same reason. Diurnal heating will cause these differences to be greatest during the afternoon and least right before dawn. Since SST measurements made from buoys and ships are usually bulk temperature measurements, temperature gradients must be taken into consideration when comparing them to SST measurements made by either thermal infrared or passive microwave remote sensing observations.

Since thermal infrared instruments measure the skin temperature and passive microwave instruments measure the sub-skin temperature, furthermore, one must also consider differences due to evaporative cooling at the sea surface when comparing measurements derived from these methods. The difference can be as great as 1 Kelvin in combination with diurnal heating effects, and so both properties must be properly accounted for when comparing or blending thermal infrared and microwave products.

http://www2.hawaii.edu/~jmaurer/sst/

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 16, 2019, 04:31:39 AM »
Can not help you.
All I get  is.
"You are ignoring this user. "
 :)
I do agree with your build solar, wind and storage and develop a smart grid capable demand load shedding during peaks such as curtailing electric car charging as a solution.
The Au experiment with home solar connected  to battery's as a virtual power plant is also a solution.
https://virtualpowerplant.sa.gov.au/virtual-power-plant
They are trialing a virtual power plant  here as well.
Kiwi virtual power plant planned via home solar and battery systems
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12169649
Also interesting  is vehicle-to-grid
Quote
The  vehicle-to-grid(V2G) concept aims to optimise the way we transport, use and produce electricity by turning electric cars into ‘virtual power plants’. Under this relatively new concept, electric cars would store and dispatch electrical energy stored in networked vehicle batteries which together act as one collective battery fleet for ‘peak shaving’ (sending power back to the grid when demand is high) and ‘valley filling’ (charging at night when demand is low) [13].

V2G would allow consumers to charge electric vehicles and monitor their energy costs, using mobile devices. This information helps utilities to better manage grid loads during peak times. Pilot projects include applications for smartphones and a black box with cellular data modem collecting information on the car’s state of charge, the vehicle location and the type of power source it is connected to [15]. Collected data is sent to the cloud where computers calculate, depending on the grid load, the optimal time to recharge [3].
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/vehicle-to-grid

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 15, 2019, 09:51:34 PM »
Quote
The electricity sector of Uruguay has traditionally been based on domestic hydropower along with thermal power plants, and reliant on imports from Argentina and Brazil at times of peak demand. Over the last 10 years, investments in renewable energy sources such as wind power and solar power allowed the country to cover in early 2016 94.5% of its electricity needs with renewable energy sources.[1]

Hydropower provides a large percentage of installed production capacity in Uruguay, almost all of it produced by four hydroelectric facilities, three on the Rio Negro and one, the Salto Grande dam shared with Argentina, on the Uruguay River. The production from these hydropower sources is dependent on seasonal rainfall patterns, but under normal hydrological conditions, can supply off-peak domestic demand.
Hydro power is storage.
Over building  wind and solar allows more use of even run of river hydro for demand peaks and negates the uncertainty of rainfall risk.
No one says it will be easy or cheap to go fossil fuel free.
Unabated climate change  will be  far more costly. 

15
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 15, 2019, 09:35:37 PM »
Quote
August 25, 2018 01:00 AM
Tesla's affordable Model 3 is expensive to insure

Note the date.
Very early in the Model 3's production ramp up.
One or two high cost crashes could skew the insurance with such a small number of cars on the road at that time.
would be interesting to see how the same comparison is now with a larger statistical base for insurance to work from.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: August 15, 2019, 09:17:27 PM »
Long - term storage solutions ( week / month ) are needed
Why?
Building much more capacity than we need is far cheaper than building weeks of storage for edge cases.
The example in England was a cascade caused by one large fossil fuel plant failing . The same happened in Australia with the loss of one coal plant causing a cascade. Why does renewable energy get the blame for the effect of a fossil fuel plant failing ? A reasonable sized Battery system could have stabilized the grid for the few minutes needed to stop the cascade and shed load in a controlled manor. A Smarter grid with the ability to shed non essential loads like car charging will also go a long way to minimize such failures.

 

17
Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 15, 2019, 08:46:19 PM »
Good vid on the blob .

18
Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 15, 2019, 09:00:21 AM »

North America Snow cover is declining in both spring and summer.
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-snow-cover

19
Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: August 15, 2019, 08:31:30 AM »
Ocean sailors have a saying for unexperienced crew.
Sea sickness is mind over matter.
We don't mind you don't matter. :-\

Brave girl. An ocean voyage on a small boat is a huge adventure for anyone to undertake.
 May she not puke her guts out .


20
Science / Re: Trends in atmospheric CH4
« on: August 15, 2019, 08:23:39 AM »
This fits here somewhat.

Ideas and perspectives: is shale gas a major driver of recent increase in global atmospheric methane?
Abstract
Quote
Methane has been rising rapidly in the atmosphere over the past decade, contributing to global climate change. Unlike the late 20th century when the rise in atmospheric methane was accompanied by an enrichment in the heavier carbon stable isotope (13C) of methane, methane in recent years has become more depleted in 13C. This depletion has been widely interpreted as indicating a primarily biogenic source for the increased methane. Here we show that part of the change may instead be associated with emissions from shale-gas and shale-oil development. Previous studies have not explicitly considered shale gas, even though most of the increase in natural gas production globally over the past decade is from shale gas. The methane in shale gas is somewhat depleted in 13C relative to conventional natural gas. Correcting earlier analyses for this difference, we conclude that shale-gas production in North America over the past decade may have contributed more than half of all of the increased emissions from fossil fuels globally and approximately one-third of the total increased emissions from all sources globally over the past decade.
https://www.biogeosciences.net/16/3033/2019/
The fracked gas boom is not the breathing space on the way to carbon free some wish for.

21
Consequences / Re: Prepping for Collapse
« on: August 15, 2019, 03:33:20 AM »
We also are inclined to be horribly disrespectful of your social position.
Those who think they will come here and lord it over us will be in for a shock.
 
There was an interesting discussion here on talk back a few months back.
How will the elites who come here to bunker down keep their position if their money no longer buys loyalty? If your money is worthless along with your skills you will be prey.

22
Antarctica / Re: What's new in Antarctica ?
« on: August 14, 2019, 11:13:34 PM »
More on the paper mentioned by Tom_Mazanec above.

The Antarctic ice sheet is melting and, yeah, it’s probably our fault.
Filed under: Climate Science — eric @ 14 August 2019
Glaciers in West Antarctica have thinned and accelerated in the last few decades.  A new paper provides some of the first evidence that this is due to human activities.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2019/08/the-antarctic-ice-sheet-is-melting-and-yeah-its-probably-our-fault/
I will not try to condense what is a complex topic. Please read Eric's explanation.

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 14, 2019, 10:30:15 PM »
Quote
I think you misunderstood something here.
I think it is highly probably  that terry misunderstood every thing.....again.

 Wow what a day!

Quote
Tesla's "Official Model 3 Grand Opening in Taiwan"
Was nothing but a cheap publicity flyer because "Tesla has been in Taiwan for years!"
"Official Model 3 Grand Opening in Taiwan.

Quote
Tesla fired all of their storefront salesmen - again!
'Cause nothing builds company loyalty like being fired twice in one year!
Number of "storefront salesmen" employed by Tesla to directly sell cars is zero and always has been. You buy the cars though the online ordering process.

Quote
A pro Tesla poster mentions Jaguar & I-Pace 8 times as she explains why Jaguar's mentioning of Tesla 3 times is proof that Jaguar fears Tesla?
Well it is the point of exposing the ads, mate, or maybe she should explore what jaguar is doing without mentioning them at all in any way.

Quote
The Fiat-Chrysler Tesla partnership will deprive the governments from funding while allowing Fiat-Chrysler to continue to produce and sell vehicles that would otherwise face heavy fines. With progress like this we'll never need to back up.
Fiat pays money to Tesla means Fiat is less competitive and Tesla more so .
That is the intent of the legislation to push the market towards low emissions cars. This method just removes some of the fiscal drag of government from the process.

Quote
A Tesla using Navigate Autopilot cuts across 5 lanes of heavy traffic in one mile without being involved in an accident. The driver is ecstatic!
Ignoring your hyperbole the fact that many drivers find navigating a car across five lines of heavy traffic stressful if not frightening and autopilot does it seamlessly shows the product is improving and is already capable of removing some of the stress of driving in heavy traffic .

Quote
After driving for approx 200 yds a professional journalist tweets that "it's the best in the world" Journalism is dead.
Someone who is employed to rate cars  says it is the best car in the world . Without doubt he went into the test with high expectations as other journalists from the same organisation had already endorsed the cars as exceptional , The fact that the car exceeded these within 200 meters is extremely illustrative of how good the model 3  actually is.
You on the other hand are not an expert and have never driven a model 3 so have nothing besides your ignorance to base your opinion on .

Quote
Journalist George Holts posts without bthat the level two Teslas are winning the race to level 5 because they are gathering data on a scale that the level 4 companies are not. Journalism is extinct!
Already covered.

last  the weather .....


Quote
I'll try limiting myself to no more than one post/day on this thread, but the spin here was really getting thick. Praise for a BS agreement with Tesla that allows Chrysler to sell their polluting beasts for another few years - how does this advance the cause?
Better yet try limiting your self to factual statements based on verifiable knowledge rather than embarrassing your self and clogging up this thread with your biased, ill informed and often illogical ranting.


24
Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 14, 2019, 01:57:00 AM »
Look carefully at your image from the paper above @.10:42:29 PM
It is suggesting ocean surface temperatures will fall.
The paper does not propose land surface temperatures falling much below the present.
However.
 A Cold  ocean surface will result in less Precipitation building the ice sheets above along with the sustained ice sheet retreat from the warmer bottom water.
There is no support from the paper for significant  glaciation being initiated from the cooling effects of ice melt. 
 

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: August 14, 2019, 01:29:58 AM »
Thank this forum. I first become aware of the Kiwi experiments from another comment on this blog.
Thank you for the English translation of 99 Luftballons the song has always been a worm in my ear now I know the meaning  even more so.

Evacuate no don't evacuate.
 What we now see is the usual SNAFU once a nuclear incident happens.



 

26
Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 14, 2019, 01:11:19 AM »
Hansen et al 2016 proposes that ocean surface temperatures will be cooled by pulses of fresh water  from retreating ice sheets.
Maintaining this will lead to a glaciation goes against the entire premise of the paper.
I would never suggest Hansen is wrong. I will strongly suggest that one paper a theory does not make.

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Direct Air Capture (of Carbon Dioxide)
« on: August 14, 2019, 01:01:30 AM »
Quote
Successful 1.9 W /m2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal.
Not presently possible with current technology on the scale we need. AKA magic thinking.

Models in CMIP6 are suggesting an ECS between 2.8C  and 5.8C. This compares with the previous coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5), which reported values between 2.1C to 4.7C.
If so we don't need to follow the 8.5 emissions pathway to be facing truly catastrophic consequences.


28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Error in "2019 melting season" thread - HTML 500
« on: August 13, 2019, 08:08:25 AM »
Quote
forum.arctic-sea-ice.net is currently unable to handle this request.
Hit  a page limit on threads?
Time to start 2019 melting season thread 2 ?

Edit page 112  is loading fine now.

29
Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 07:06:17 AM »
Quote
most humans WERE self-sufficient in terms of food production
Working dawn to dusk year round in an effort to provide sufficient food and energy for your own consumption, pay the landlord his tax and a little to trade for that you can not provide your self is far harder grind than the eight to five five days a week .
In Europe most were serfs of some sort.  little more than slaves, chattels of the land, able to be brought and sold at the whim of the local manor.
There was no mythical  garden of Eden in mans past.
We, modern man, have it better than any time since the first naked apes stopped living in trees.

30
deinst
You may find this an interesting topic to pursue .
Sprite (lightning)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sprite_(lightning)
Quote
Sprites or red sprites are large-scale electrical discharges that occur high above thunderstorm clouds, or cumulonimbus, giving rise to a quite varied range of visual shapes flickering in the night sky. They are usually triggered by the discharges of positive lightning between an underlying thundercloud and the ground.

Sprites appear as luminous reddish-orange flashes. They often occur in clusters above the troposphere at an altitude range of 50–90 km (31–56 mi). Sporadic visual reports of sprites go back at least to 1886,[citation needed] but they were first photographed on July 6, 1989 by scientists from the University of Minnesota and have subsequently been captured in video recordings many thousands of times.

Sprites are sometimes inaccurately called upper-atmospheric lightning. However, sprites are cold plasma phenomena that lack the hot channel temperatures of tropospheric lightning, so they are more akin to fluorescent tube discharges than to lightning discharges.

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: August 12, 2019, 05:33:22 AM »
Good question Archimid so I googled it.
vw fire passat
First page
Quote
Volkswagen Passat Recalls Concern Possible Fires - Recall Masters
https://www.recallmasters.com/volkswagen-passat-recalls-concern-possible-fires/
Apr 26, 2019 - Auburn Hills, MI — April 26, 2016 — In an action unrelated to previous diesel emissions Volkswagen recalls, the manufacturer is focusing on ...
Volkswagen Recalls Passat for Fire Risk - Safety & Accident ...
https://www.automotive-fleet.com/140614/volkswagen-recalls-passat-for-fire-risk-1
May 24, 2017 - Volkswagen Group of America is recalling 84,262 2012- to 2014-model year Passat sedans, each equipped with a diesel engine and a ...
Our Volkswagen Passat caught fire because of electrical issues - can ...
https://www.honestjohn.co.uk/.../our-volkswagen-passat-caught-fire-because-of-electri...
1 answer
Oct 27, 2017 - If you bought the car within six months from the dealer who has been attempting to fix it then yes, you could attempt to reject it. But if it is worth ...
VW Passat being investigated for fires | Autoblog
https://www.autoblog.com/2007/05/17/vw-passat-being-investigated-for-fires/
May 17, 2007 - Boy, that's one hot car, that Passat. But is it so hot, in fact, that it self-immolates? The NHTSA seems to think that the ignition coil packs are ...
Report: NHTSA reopens probe into VW Passat engine fires | Autoblog
https://www.autoblog.com/.../report-nhtsa-reopens-probe-into-vw-passat-engine-fires/
Aug 4, 2010 - The fifth-generation (1996-2005) Volkswagen Passat was always a bit of a problem child for the German automakers and its vehicle owners.
U.S. probes VW Passat again for engine compartment fires
https://www.autonews.com/.../u-s-probes-vw-passat-again-for-engine-compartment-fir...
Aug 3, 2010 - Volkswagen's Passat for 2002-03 is under investigation by federal regulators for the second time in three years after identical complaints about ...
2016 Volkswagen Jetta, Passat and Golf Recalled for Fire Risk ...
https://www.edmunds.com › Car News
Jul 5, 2016 - Volkswagen Group of America is recalling 55 2016 Volkswagen Jetta, Passat and Golf cars because of a fire risk, according to the National ...
Volkswagen Passat under investigation for ignition failure, fires ...
https://www.torquenews.com/.../volkswagen-passat-under-investigation-ignition-failur...
Feb 2, 2011 - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has announced an investigation of certain Volkswagen Passat sedans and wagons over ...
Passat = four wheeled ronson .

32
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 11, 2019, 10:32:31 AM »
It is usually benchmarked against other luxury sedans by the motoring press.

Car and driver call it a compact luxury sedan.
https://www.caranddriver.com/tesla/model-3
Overview
Quote
Although originally intended to be an electric car for the masses, the 2019 Tesla Model 3 is instead more of an all-electric alternative to compact luxury sedans. The promised $35,000 Model 3 is now available only by special order, meaning the least expensive version available to order online starts at $41,100—in the territory of the BMW 3-series and the Mercedes-Benz C-class.
\


Tesla Model 3 Or BMW 3 Series? Which Is The World's Best Sedan?
https://insideevs.com › Tesla › Model 3 › Reviews › Comparisons

Edmunds: Tesla Model 3 Is 'Way More Fun' Than New BMW 3 Series
Edmunds also rate it as a luxury car here.
https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/

Tesla Model 3 vs. BMW 330i vs. Genesis G70 Comparison - MotorTrend
https://www.motortrend.com/.../tesla/model-3/.../tesla-model-3-vs-bmw-330i-vs-genes...

Feel free to give a non luxury sedan with comparable performance and specifications as even a 3SR+.
No a 1.8t passat is not comparable in performance... not even close.

As to your rather cute comparison in running costs.
Try adding a share of the trillions the USA spends on its oil fired wars ,the health costs of pollution
and the mounting impact of our unfortunate experiment with atmospheric physics.

Oh and Terry petrol is explosive at 14 parts air one part petrol. Exploding such a mixture  is how an Infernal Combustion Engine develops its power. An ICE  car has far more  than a thimble full and they frequently burn very intensely even sitting in parking garages .   

Parking garage fire destroys about 1400 cars in England
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/100285139/parking-garage-fire-destroys-up-to-1400-cars-in-england



33
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 11, 2019, 04:25:37 AM »
Tesla Cars = #1 In US Luxury Car Sales In 2nd Quarter Of 2019

Quote
The Tesla Model 3 absolutely embarrassed the luxury car competition in the United States in the second quarter, as explained and visualized in a CleanTechnica report last night. More broadly, the following report looks at overall luxury car sales and overall luxury auto sales in the US last quarter.

Naturally, Tesla does better when just comparing car sales since that’s the category in which it has a high-volume, mass-market model (the Model 3). Other automakers sell a lot of crossovers and SUVs, whereas Tesla has no crossovers on the market (yet) and only the high-priced Model X SUV.

Looking at the luxury car ranking, Tesla took the title in the second quarter, on the shoulders of the Model 3’s unprecedented domination of its class.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/08/10/tesla-cars-1-in-us-luxury-car-sales-in-2nd-quarter-of-2019/

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: August 11, 2019, 01:40:03 AM »
http://www.daviddarling.info/encyclopedia/K/KIWI.html

Quote
KIWI was a series of nuclear reactors, designed and built in the late 1950's and 1960's as part of the Rover program, to develop the basic technology of nuclear thermal rockets (see nuclear propulsion). The KIWI-A series of tests developed the technologies of instrumentation and control, fuel element design and fabrication, and structural design. The KIWI-B series was designed to increase power 10-fold while maintaining the same size. It faced a problem first encountered with KIWI-A: internal vibrations caused by dynamic flow instability fractured portions of the fuel elements. This problem was finally overcome in KIWI-B4. The KIWI-TNT was a test reactor for the effects of sudden explosion and excursion.


Record of the fallout from the kiwi tnt explosion experiment.

https://www.osti.gov/opennet/servlets/purl/16295582/16295582.pdf


35
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 11, 2019, 01:14:30 AM »
I often think we need a separate thread for those who attack Musk .
With a subheading show us on the doll were the  man touched you.  ;D
Musk is not Tesla. He is seldom mentioned by the pro Tesla faction yet seems to be the overriding obsession of some of those against the company.

36
Antarctica / Re: Majestic Antarctic Images
« on: August 10, 2019, 09:09:42 PM »
Melting of less compact ice in old crevasses when the mass was deeper in warm sea water?
Awesome photo by the way .

37
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 10, 2019, 07:46:32 AM »
Quote
English post war vangard
Know the engine well .
As a hobby I have restored a few fergie tractors.
They use the same engine and also have a crank handle from the factory.
The ability to hand crank was dropped  in English cars once alternators replaced generators around 1965.

38
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 10, 2019, 02:14:28 AM »
Great resource provided by Nick Stokes at his blog moyhu if you are interested in decadeal temperature trends by region.

Active WebGL plot of decadal regional temperature trends using ERSST V5 and GHCN V4
Quote
I have maintained a page of local trends over periods that users could choose. It was based on GHCN V3, and mesh display, and can still be seen here. But I need to upgrade to GHCN V4, and I have decided to update to LOESS graphics as well. But there is one further upgrade - instead of a choice of a fixed number of intervals ending in present, you can now choose any period of decades back to 1900. The maths of this is quite interesting, and I'll say more below. The new page is here, with the link in the page list top right.

The plot itself is the usual WebGL trackball. You can drag the globe around, or more quickly relocate by clicking on the small map above. Clicking on the plot shows the trend for the chosen period at that location. You can choose periods with the buttons on the right. The endpoints are colored, so the start state of 1980 and 2020 means the period will be Jan 1980 to Dec 2019, with missing months suitably handled. If you click outside the range, the range will extend; if you click inside, the red color will move to your choice. If you wanted to move the pink end, click the pink button to make it red. When you have chosen, click the Show button at the top to get the new plot. The average global trend for the period will show at the bottom as well.
https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2019/08/active-webgl-plot-of-decadal-regional.html

39
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Where Does The Water Go?
« on: August 10, 2019, 01:24:51 AM »
Greenland Ice Melt Could Push Atlantic Circulation to Collapse.
https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/greenland-ice-melt-could-push-atlantic-circulation-collapse/
Quote
In the North Atlantic, east of North America and south of Greenland, the ocean’s upper layers are much warmer than one might presume given the extreme latitude. This unexpected warmth is a product of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a vitally important system of ocean currents that moves warm salty water northward from the tropics and cold fresher water south. The AMOC looms large in the Earth’s climate: it is responsible for redistributing nutrients throughout the Atlantic Ocean and is a major driving force controlling the climate on both sides of the pond.

Ocean currents all experience fluctuations, which can dramatically change the distribution of nutrients, heat, and fish. The best known example is probably the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, in which unusually warm water occasionally disrupts the Pacific Ocean’s Humboldt Current that flows north from Chile toward Peru. El Niño events can shift the jet stream south, cause excessive rainfall and devastating floods, and temporarily collapse fish stocks.

To date, most climate research suggests that the AMOC is relatively stable and carries water throughout the ocean in a reliable, repeating cycle. But anthropogenic climate change seems to have made the current weaken slightly, raising the question of whether more dramatic shifts are in store. As of the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, a shutdown of the circulation from further warming is considered unlikely. Yet a new study says that the unprecedented melting of Greenland’s massive ice sheets, previously overlooked in most climate modeling, will result in the AMOC weakening, and maybe even collapsing, within the next 300 years.
based on the paper.
Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting
P. Bakker etal.2016
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL070457
Abstract
Quote
The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report concludes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could weaken substantially but is very unlikely to collapse in the 21st century. However, the assessment largely neglected Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) mass loss, lacked a comprehensive uncertainty analysis, and was limited to the 21st century. Here in a community effort, improved estimates of GrIS mass loss are included in multicentennial projections using eight state‐of‐the‐science climate models, and an AMOC emulator is used to provide a probabilistic uncertainty assessment. We find that GrIS melting affects AMOC projections, even though it is of secondary importance. By years 2090–2100, the AMOC weakens by 18% [−3%, −34%; 90% probability] in an intermediate greenhouse‐gas mitigation scenario and by 37% [−15%, −65%] under continued high emissions. Afterward, it stabilizes in the former but continues to decline in the latter to −74% [+4%, −100%] by 2290–2300, with a 44% likelihood of an AMOC collapse. This result suggests that an AMOC collapse can be avoided by CO2 mitigation.

.Discussion by S Rahmstorf at real climate on a paper of his on same subject.
.http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/
What’s going on in the North Atlantic?

Quote
The North Atlantic between Newfoundland and Ireland is practically the only region of the world that has defied global warming and even cooled. Last winter there even was the coldest on record – while globally it was the hottest on record. Our recent study (Rahmstorf et al. 2015) attributes this to a weakening of the Gulf Stream System, which is apparently unique in the last thousand years.

The whole world is warming. The whole world? No! A region in the subpolar Atlantic has cooled over the past century – unique in the world for an area with reasonable data coverage (Fig. 1). So what’s so special about this region between Newfoundland and Ireland?
Fig. 1 Linear temperature trend from 1900 to 2013. The cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic is remarkable and well documented by numerous measurements – unlike the cold spot in central Africa, which on closer inspection apparently is an artifact of incomplete and inhomogeneous weather station data.

It happens to be just that area for which climate models predict a cooling when the Gulf Stream System weakens (experts speak of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation or AMOC, as part of the global thermohaline circulation). That this might happen as a result of global warming is discussed in the scientific community since the 1980s – since Wally Broecker’s classical Nature article “Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?” Meanwhile evidence is mounting that the long-feared circulation decline is already well underway.

Impacts.
Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM
C. Jackson et al.
Abstract

Quote
The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe’s landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2540-2




40
Policy and solutions / Re: Direct Air Capture (of Carbon Dioxide)
« on: August 09, 2019, 10:59:39 PM »
Quote
what Brazil will be doing to the Amazon.

What we are doing to the Amazon.
If we hit 3C there is a good chance that the amazon region will transition from rain forest to  savannah.
This change will release much of the carbon contained in the present forest.
Not being all skyrockety the change  will  happen over century's not decades.
Earth system sensitivity is  higher than the usually quoted ECS equilibrium climate sensitivity.
Deforestation of the Amazon being one of the feed backs not addressed in ECS calculations.


41
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 07, 2019, 10:25:03 PM »
B S3XY.
Drive a Tesla.
 ;D 8)

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 07, 2019, 06:38:18 AM »
Maintenance ?
Tesla mandated service interval .
https://www.tesla.com/en_NZ/support/car-maintenance
Quote
If I choose not to service my Tesla car, will this void my warranty?
Your New Vehicle Limited Warranty or Used Vehicle Limited Warranty will not be affected if recommended service is not performed.


ICE cars  need frequent trips to service and on going maintenance costs not found in an EV.

The comparison between a 3LR and a 1.8t Passat is between a sports sedan and a granny car.
The Pissat has roughly half the acceleration of a 3.

The Passat also deprecates at a rapid rate even a 5 year old one.
The value inherent in alternative uses for  the battery pack will insure an electric cars deprecation plateaus after five or so years.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 06, 2019, 09:27:44 PM »
 ;D
Whompy wheels!!!!
Now that is desperate Tesla hating.
Google is your friend and a quick one would have saved the embarrassment of repeating such dribble. Keef is an obvious fruitcake with extra nuts if you have read some of his online interactions.

As to fsd
The american culture of suing at any chance of personal gain will probably hold back such technology in that country.
The rest of the world not so much.
Perfect is the enemy of good.
It only has to be better than an average driver to result in less carnage on the roads.
I don't believe Musk's time lines but do think the technology will be going live in more enlightened markets in the next decade.
 
 

44
Science / Re: Sea Level Rise Accelerating
« on: August 06, 2019, 09:47:40 AM »
Global sea level rise began to accelerate in the 1960s, 30 years earlier than suggested by previous assessments, a new study finds.

Quote
Previous studies reconstructed twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) from sparse tide-gauge records to understand whether the recent high rates obtained from satellite altimetry are part of a longer-term acceleration. However, these analyses used techniques that can only accurately capture either the trend or the variability in GMSL, but not both. Here we present an improved hybrid sea-level reconstruction during 1900–2015 that combines previous techniques at time scales where they perform best. We find a persistent acceleration in GMSL since the 1960s and demonstrate that this is largely (~76%) associated with sea-level changes in the Indo-Pacific and South Atlantic. We show that the initiation of the acceleration in the 1960s is tightly linked to an intensification and a basin-scale equatorward shift of Southern Hemispheric westerlies, leading to increased ocean heat uptake, and hence greater rates of GMSL rise, through changes in the circulation of the Southern Ocean.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0531-8



45
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 06, 2019, 02:52:16 AM »

50% year on year growth until all cars are electric? No not part of the theory of disruptive industry's. The key NeilT is in the shape of the well known S curve for new technology adoption.
That 50%per year  cumulative growth is the charge happening right now as electric cars transition from tech geeks and early adopters to mainstream.

Don't look to the legacy players in Europe, Japan and America look to  China  as to who will really make the volumes happen . Once china has developed capacity enough to saturate their domestic market they will push into the international markets .
Higher Scale = lower cost .
Five years or so and you will be seeing Chinese built electric cars enter world  markets in volume at a competitive quality and price.



46
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: August 06, 2019, 02:00:13 AM »
 ;D
My comment above got many attempts to shoot it down in flames.
I was guilty of grossly over simplifying due mostly to a comment made on a cell phone and my laziness. My expectation was that the audience would know enough to read what I was implying not what I said.
Science folks, the art of being less wrong.
I maintain I was less wrong than some of the replies.

We have claims that a feed back,more  heat escaping from the open water  over winter due to low extent, has resulted in a change in the long term trend of decline.
This seems to me to be based on cognitive bias, a selective use of the available data and a curve fitting exercise.
Noise.
Using the effects of a few weather events to add an extra term into the curve of decline is questionable. Such ideas strongly reminds me of the so called "pause" in warming that certain sectors pushed after 1998's excursion from the long term trend in global mean surface temperatures.
Ocean heat content below the ice has continued its rise. Atmospheric temperatures above the ice have continued to increase. Volume,thickness and area has continued to fall.
None of these metrics support a change to the shape of the long term trend.

At some point in the next decade or two we will see another weather event that results in a BOE.
Extent  will then revert back to the trend in the following years. After a single BOE has happened once it will happen again with increasing frequency.
Such events will  hasten a blue ocean over summer becoming a permanent state. 

FWIW.
DK?
I know just enough to know I don't know enough to know how much I don't know.



47
Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: August 05, 2019, 10:27:08 PM »
World’s Top 5 Plug-In EV Automotive Groups In First Half Of 2019

Quote
Plug-in car sales in H1 2019:

Tesla: 160,009 (14% share vs 9% in 2018)
BYD: 141,459 (13% share vs 9% in 2018)
Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance: 100,736 (9% share vs 11% in 2018)
Geely Group: 69,795 (6% share vs 4% in 2018)
BAIC: 68,933 (6% share vs 8% in 2018)

https://insideevs.com/news/363357/world-top-5-ev-automotive-groups-first-half-2019/

At more than 50% growth year on year how long before the automotive market is dominated by EV's?
You can not stop the future you can only influence your own part in it.

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: August 05, 2019, 09:45:49 AM »
Sailing on a boat that was going there anyway has a very low carbon impact compared to adding your weight to a big metal  bird burning aviation fuel.
Without doubt the impact of Greta travelling to the USA will result in a far greater saving of carbon emissions than her journey will require.

The attacks on her disgust me  especially the ones on her Asperger's.
They are no longer getting traction in attacking the science so they are turning up the attacks on the messengers and the message.

49
Walking the walk / Re: Master List of Easy Changes?
« on: August 05, 2019, 09:28:13 AM »
 
Quote
Add enzymes and they'll outlast your roof. - probably your house.

Houses are 1950's built for NZ air force staff. We moved them 150km from the original location on the back of trucks...recycled houses.
They are  predominantly  built from NZ native timbers with concrete tile roofs and will last as long as someone bothers to maintain them.

The problems with septic tanks here have been a lack of maintenance, degradation of the  leach fields,unsuitable soils types and our high rainfall. A septic tank  would be an Anaerobic system which is not as efficient as an  Aerobic system at breaking down waste.
 
For our vermiculture system the leach field is 400 sq meters.
The geology is a well decayed volcanic "rock", more like  a silty expansive
clay  in consistency over a bed of fine limestone.  These soil types are inclined to be either extremely saturated or bone dry.  As we are close to a very large tidal harbour, whose ecology the local county is trying to protect, the rules around waste discharges are strict.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaipara_Harbour

-------

The most important things you can do ?
Limit your needless consumption as much as possible.
Buy quality products with an eye to how long things will last  rather than do they confirm to the the latest fashion trends. Recycle and reuse.



 

50
Walking the walk / Re: Master List of Easy Changes?
« on: August 05, 2019, 03:35:55 AM »
Not quite the same as a septic tank.
 We have a considerable issue in this country with older septic tanks  contaminating the environment with human waste.
A septic system is  just a large tank that allows solids to settle out and the remaining liquid to permeate the surrounding ground. Once full the remaining toxic  sludge must be pumped out and dumped into a land full. Septic tank systems  no longer comply with building standards here in NZ. Most of the alternative   systems use pumps and aerators to help digest the solids. Such mechanical pumps would represent a constant drain on a limited energy supply and also are proving costly to maintain with the pumps needing to be replaced frequently.
What we have installed is a vermiculture based bio digester that hopefully will run at no cost and little maintenance for my remaining life span.

Before we moved our houses onto here we actually had a small portable worm based composting toilet  that worked very well as a temporary solution.

Hopefully  this  information is close enough to the threads topic to not cause offence.....

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