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Messages - KiwiGriff

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Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 09:24:34 AM »
but as it usually takes 1 week to die from this I find that not right.

17.8 days from symptom  to death according to a paper published today in the lancet.

They also give the following death rates.
The death rate from confirmed COVID-19 cases is estimated at 1.38%, while the overall death rate, which includes unconfirmed cases, is estimated at 0.66%.

They use the assumption that cases are evenly spread throughout the population and the overwhelming number of cases reported are in the over fifty age group to calculate  their unconfirmed case count.

I still find the S Korean data and an examination of their death rate more convincing.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 02:53:03 AM »
El Cid is an perennial optimist on almost all questions.

Your bounds from Iceland are very similar to what I found for Korea.

Many are pinning their hopes on the significant  hidden cases hypothesis that we have very limited evidence for. Perhaps when a reliable antibody test is widely instituted we will know
Until then it is not a good idea to base responses with the potential for  the deaths of millions on such a baseless hypothesis.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 11:08:00 PM »
1.086 cases 157 recovered 2 dead.
Not enough resolved cases  to make any projection based on that data.
Some victims are OK for weeks only to rapidly decline and die .
Iceland is a data set that shows promises to give us valid information over time just not yet

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 09:52:09 PM »
Probably the most accurate representation of infection to test ratios  and death rates to resolved cases is the numbers from Korea
They have had a massive testing effort since very early on so have picked up many unsymptomatic and mild cases and have a high ratio of resolved to active cases.
Deaths to known cases 1.64%
Their death rate is still rising quicker than new cases suggesting this % will continue to increase
Recovered / Discharged 5,228 (97%)  Deaths 158 (3%).
To me this suggests  an over all case to death count bounded by  1.64% to 3%.

Many are noting pollution levels may be a factor in death rates.
Another confounding factor I have not seen mentioned is over all health of a population.
Korea has a high life expectancy the USA low for the developed world.
Will this result in a higher death rate in an older population or more deaths due to a higher rate of chronic conditions in the younger population?


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 08:27:05 AM »
Astrophysicist gets magnets stuck up nose while inventing coronavirus device
Australian Dr Daniel Reardon ended up in hospital after inserting magnets in his nostrils while building a necklace that warns you when you touch your face
Still laughing.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 08:02:17 AM »
One to ten million 13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million 14 (20.6%)

Those who estimated as above I would regard as realists.
Out side of this  range you have the real optimists and pessimists.
As with AGW How us apes  respond is the greater unknown .

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 30, 2020, 06:49:53 AM »
The only factor I can find so far that could make a large difference is the number of asymptomatic cases. If if turns out that for each diagnosed case there are 10 or 20 undiagnosed mild cases that go nowhere and generate immunity, then the total fatalities and total hospitalizations should be much lower than expected in the dire scenario, and the disease will peak much earlier as it runs out of available hosts. How sure are we of this factor?

South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people,9,661 cases ,158 deaths.4,275 Currently Infected Patients,4,216 (99%)in Mild Condition 59 (1%)Serious or Critical,Recovered:5,228
Apparently their cases from the church group, the main epicenter of infection, were predominantly young.
Still it does suggest many mild cases are going unreported in other places. 
Not by a factor of 10 .

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 11:20:36 PM »
However, the virus cannot continue to grow exponentially.  It did not in China or South Korea, and appears to be nearing a peak in Italy. 
Only after lock down .
You don't seem to get that actions have results.
On one hand you are minimizing the threat on the other you are invoking places that are not and are taking drastic actions.
Not joined up thinking.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:43:55 PM »
Seeing how you don't get it maybe this is more your level.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 29, 2020, 10:11:55 PM »
I am following the current advice of the local authorities. Like almost everybody in Sweden.
No policing necessary. No army on the streets.
I give Sweden two weeks before they get it .
Stay the fuck at home.
We have lock down here only essential business running all else is closed.
The police are pulling over cars and asking what you are doing.
No one is being prosecuted or anything  it is simply a genial friendly reminder from the local plod  to the very small minority ignoring the directive .
Stay the fuck at home.

Did I say it enough ?
Stay the fuck at home for fucks sake . 

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 10:10:16 PM »
NEW YORK (from New York Governor Cuomo daily briefing):

Apex of hospital need could be in 21 days from now in New York
All hospitals need to increase capacity by 50%, some by 100%
Need a total of 140,000 hospital beds. Currently have 53,000 (an additional 87,000 hospital beds are needed)
Need a total of 40,000 ICU beds. Currently have 3,000, with 3,000 ventilators. An additional 37,000 ICU beds are needed
Will use college dormitories, hotels, nursing homes, and all possible space by converting it to hospitals if needed in April
138,376 people have been tested
Schools will stay closed for an additional 2 weeks after April 1, to then reassess the situation and extend again if needed. 180 days requirement has been waived
"This is not going to be a short deployment [...] This is going to be weeks, and weeks, and weeks [...] This is a rescue mission you are on, to save lives. [...] You are living a moment in history that will change and forge character"

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 09:08:06 PM »

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 08:55:42 PM »
Coronavirus: Government starts economic planning for post-lockdown New Zealand

Robertson already has groups burrowing away within the public sector looking at both clean energy initiatives and the housing market, saying that the Government will be "looking at the kind of industry development model, you know, what do we do so that we don't repeat previous mistakes.

"So we are focussing on the areas that we are needing to be making progress on."

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 08:18:51 PM »
Yeah 88 mph.
Never happens.
Fired up the DeLorean  went back  and deleted it.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 12:36:24 PM »

The USA has been on a consisted exponential growth path since day 11 (March 1). Italian Covid‑19 incidence levels – currently just over 8,000 known cases per 10 million people on 23 March – will be reached in the United States by day 39 (Sunday, March 29) if there is no decline from this path. Further death rates in the USA are likely to accelerate; there is no obvious reason why deaths as a percentage of known cases should be substantially less in the United States than in Italy.

The United Kingdom chart is on an identical grid to the USA chart. While the growth rate of known cases is on a slower exponential growth path (and projects to reach present Italian levels a day later than USA), the UK death rate is on a faster growth path. The most likely explanation here is that the UK case data has becoming increasingly divorced from the actual incidence of Covid‑19 in United Kingdom. While the UK undercount may be less than Italy’s, it is very much the death tally that has now become the key indicator in the UK (as it has in Italy and Spain). Covid‑19 deaths per 100 million people have reached 500 in the United Kingdom, but 150 in the United States.

Fuck bars.
Fucking moronic right wing death cult whacks
Cunt headed mother fucking idiots are committing suicide with covid 19 and we are the collateral damage.
The only bright hope is enough boomer fucktards die that politics changes  in the Anglophile country's and we actually manage to engage with reality going forward.
Correction slim hope...learn from our mistakes  kids ....

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 26, 2020, 07:12:35 AM »
That means that IF 80% of boomers catch it, and 4% die, that is 2.3 million (approx)

If when  we start seeing that level of death it will be multiple times 4% as hospitals become over loaded.


Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 11:34:54 PM »

The median age of Fox News viewers is 65.
According to Nielsen ratings, the median age of Fox’s audience was 66 in 2016. Following something of a youthful surge the following year, Adweek reported “good news” for Fox News early in 2018. Over the past year, the median age of the cable channel’s audience had dropped to 65. Looking at prime-time numbers alone, Fox viewers kicked back up to 66.

# boomer remover .

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 25, 2020, 01:28:43 AM »
A) Countries that test everyone have about 17 days lag from number of cases to number of deaths (Day 6 to Day 23).
B) Countries that only test patients admitted to hospital have about 12 days lag from number of cases to number of deaths (Day 11 to Day 23).

The number of deaths ONLY become apparent once every case is resolved ether tested clear of virus or dead .
You can be kept "alive" for a long time by modern medicine  even to the extent of being clinically brain dead and rotting.

The diamond princess is a good  example .
Confirmed cases 712,Deaths 10,Total Recovered 587.
It has been 25 days since the ship was evacuated and there are 115 cases still to be resolved. Some 15 of these overhanging cases are listed as critical.
 After 25 days we still do not have the true death rate from the ship.

Most here probably grok this but... I am sick of arguing with right wingers on other forums who use cherry picked numbers to claim the risk is low so we should not do any thing as drastic as lock down .

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 23, 2020, 04:26:00 AM »
New Zealand moved up to COVID-19 Alert Level 3 – Restrict
New Zealand to move up to COVID-19 Alert Level 4 – Eliminate, in 48 hours
Two-staged approach to give people and businesses time to prepare
Level 3, from tomorrow

Non-essential businesses must close
All events and gatherings must be cancelled
Schools will only open for children of essential workers. They will close completely when we move to Level 4
Workplaces must implement alternative working with everyone who can to work from home
No discretionary domestic air travel between regions
Public transport for people undertaking essential services and transport of freight only

New Zealand has moved up to COVID-19 Alert Level 3 – Restrict, for the next 48 hours before moving into Level 4 – Eliminate, as New Zealand escalates its response to stop the virus in its tracks, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced today.

“Due to the early and strong steps we’ve taken, New Zealand is fortunate not to be as hard-hit by the virus as other countries but the trajectory is clear. We are under attack like the rest of the world and must unite to stop the worst from happening here,” Jacinda Ardern said.

“If community transmission takes off in New Zealand the number of cases will double every five days. If that happens unchecked, our health system will be inundated, and thousands of New Zealanders will die.

“Together we can stop that from happening and our plan is simple. We can stop the spread by staying home and reducing contact.

“Moving to Level 3, then 4, will place the most significant restrictions on our people in modern history but they are a necessary sacrifice to save lives.

“At Level 3, we are asking non-essential businesses to close. This includes bars, restaurants, cafes, gyms, cinemas, pools, museums, libraries and other places where people gather together.

“Essential services will remain open, such as supermarkets, banks, GPs, pharmacies, service stations, couriers and other important frontline service providers.

“Gatherings, indoors or out, and of any shape or size, must be cancelled. This means weddings, birthday celebrations and other gatherings.

“Workplaces should have everyone working from home. Essential services will stay open at every level, but must put in place alternative ways of working including physical distancing of staff of two metres.

“Schools will be closed from tomorrow, except to children of essential workers who still need to go to work each day including doctors, nurses, ambulance drivers and police. This will be temporary, and schools will close entirely from midnight Wednesday.

“The school term break will be brought forward. For the remainder of this week and through the term break schools will establish ways to deliver teaching online and remotely as quickly as they can.

“Public transport and regional air travel is restricted to those involved in essential services and freight, with domestic air travel permitted in some cases for people to leave the country and to get home to self-isolate. Private travel is allowed.

“I say to all New Zealanders: The Government will do all it can to protect you. Now I’m asking you to do everything you can to protect all of us. Kiwis – go home.

“Today, get your neighbour’s phone number, set up a community group chat, get your gear to work from home, cancel social gatherings of any size or shape, prepare to walk around the block while keeping a two-metre distance between you.

“If in doubt, don’t go out.

“These measures will be in place for four weeks at this point.

“New Zealand is fighting an unprecedented global pandemic and it will take a collective effort of every single New Zealander doing the right thing to give us our best shot at curtailing community outbreak,” Jacinda Ardern said.

Further details available at

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 22, 2020, 06:03:06 PM »
I am a realist.
I voted 10 to 100 million and are still confident we will see still such a toll

Some are thinking from a first world perspective.

When this runs rampant though Africa, India and other less wealthy places ?

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 08:23:22 PM »
NZ national alert levels  .
We are at two now.
The government  opened drive though testing stations today.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 21, 2020, 08:15:19 PM »
The average Time from diagnose to death is about twenty days.
Germany had confirmed very few cases 20 days ago now 22084 their cases count is  doubling every two days .
 They reported 45 deaths on the 21 and now have 83.
Wait a week and their mortality rate will look more in line with other places .

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 21, 2020, 07:20:20 AM »
Out on  a limb.
Griff expect the Dow and other metrics to settle on 50% of their highs .
We still have a while to fall yet.
Why the fuck don't they get it ?
This pandemic  a global catastrophe that will play out over the coming years not months.

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 18, 2020, 06:30:05 PM »
Dow Jones Industrial Average
19,306.02 −1,931.36 (9.09%)
18 Mar, 1:28 pm GMT-4 ·

Slow motion train Crash.

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 18, 2020, 05:07:51 PM »
Dow Jones Industrial Average

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 17, 2020, 05:11:21 PM »
Is it good to cull the human species ?
Probably on an intellectual level.
Culling the old will have an out sized  impact on the AGW effects of consumerism as you amass more wealth and have more opportunity to spend it as you age.   
Some of us are high risk .
I dont want to die and I also dont want to see others on here die.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 16, 2020, 11:58:08 PM »
Don't forget tesla sells on line no need to get infected at your local dealership

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 16, 2020, 06:18:11 PM »
@Motorhead, Toucher of Own Face
Major carmakers' stock performance, YTD. Something tells me there's plenty more downside in $TSLA. Avg drop of -38% for rivals would = $259.

1) $DAI:      -54%
2) $BMW:   -44%
3) $VOW:    -39%
4) $F:          -39%
5) $GM:      -32%
6) $TM:       -22%
7) $TSLA:   +31%

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 15, 2020, 06:28:44 PM »
Wodarg was known in 2009 to oppose swine flu vaccination . [3] [4] During the 2019/2020 coronavirus epidemic , he criticized quarantine measures and prohibition measures in an opinion post as “scaremongering” and claimed that epidemics with coronaviruses occur every year and do not require any special protective measures or tests; a positive test result has no clinical significance. He assessed the measures imposed by the health authorities on the pandemic and the recommendations of the WHO and the Robert Koch Institute as being driven by interests and aimed at the financial gain of certain beneficiaries. [5]
We may get the opportunity to find out what happens if you do not take "quarantine measures and prohibition measures"
Thank ( insert deity of choice or blind luck ) I dont live somewhere like that.
This is an order of magnitude worse than flu that health systems regularly have trouble coping with.


Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 14, 2020, 09:03:53 AM »
Yip the same.
Even more to the loon side than WUWT.
A quick read of the site will find plenty of posts anyone with 1/10 a clue would know are gibbering fuckin nonsense.

I am willing to believe philopek made an honest mistake.

The fact the site is on the nutty fringe  needed to be pointed out.
There may be lurkers who get sucked into such propaganda. I feel it is our collective  duty as members of a science based forum to make it clear that some sites are not science  have no value and should not be linked to.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 14, 2020, 07:37:00 AM »
NEW ZEALAND COVID-195:36 pm today
Everyone travelling to NZ from overseas to self-isolate

As of midnight tomorrow every person arriving in New Zealand apart from those coming from the Pacific islands will have to self- isolate, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.

She is addressing the media on coronavirus.

Until now, foreign travellers arriving from mainland China and Iran have been banned from entering the country. Travellers from South Korea and Italy have been asked to self-isolate for two weeks on arrival.

As of midnight Sunday every person arriving will have to isolate themselves for 14 days, Ardern says. That will mean New Zealand will have the strongest restrictions in the world, she said.

She said the measures will be reviewed in 16 days and there will be more measures and advice for self isolation next week.

All cruise ships are also being asked to not come to New Zealand until June 30. It does not apply to cargo ships.

The prime minister said it is not realistic for New Zealand to only have a handful of Covid-19 cases.

However, "New Zealand has today relative to other countries a small number of cases," Ardern said.

We have two choices as a nation, Ardern said. One is to let Covid-19 roll on, the other is to go hard on measures to stamp it out. It is in our power to slow it down, she said.

New Zealanders' public health comes first and this constitutes an unprecedented time.

"Cabinet made far reaching and unprecedented decisions today because these are unprecedented circumstances. As of midnight Sunday every person entering New Zealand, including returning New Zealand citizens and residents, will be required to enter self isolation for 14 days - everybody.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 13, 2020, 11:27:33 PM »
I suggest rather than having a rant at me you carefully research your source and learn why I called them gibbering cranks from doing so.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 13, 2020, 09:55:36 PM »
A maunder minimum would drop temperatures by about 0.3C  15 years warming at our present rate of around 0.2C a decade.
it is certainly interesting to explore what effects such a minimum might have on 21st century climate if it did occur. This is precisely the question Stefan Rahmstorf and I investigated in a study published last year (see also our press release. (Earlier estimates for the size of this effect can be found here and here.) In our study we find that a new Maunder Minimum would lead to a cooling of 0.3°C in the year 2100 at most – relative to an expected anthropogenic warming of around 4°C. (The amount of warming in the 21st century depends on assumptions about future emissions, of course).

Also of note ELECTROVERSE are a bunch of gibbering cranks. links to such a source do not belong on this forum.
There are data sources that do not encourage visiting such sites and raising their profile on search engines.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 13, 2020, 09:02:45 PM »
Be cause.
Please be very  careful in  hospital.
Keep your distance and don't touch anything if you can avoid it. Wear a mask if you can.
Sanitize  your hands constantly and avoid touching your face.
All this at a OCD level.
They might think you are weird but who cares if it keeps you alive.

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 12, 2020, 09:56:22 PM »
Thanks for that gerontocrat
I was surprised that gold was falling it usually skyrockets in this sort of situation.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 08:11:59 PM »
It's the ones that you don't see that will get ya.

Consider this carefully
12,462 Italy
10,075 Iran
7,869 Korea, South
2,284 France
2,277 Spain
2,078 Germany
1,323 US
702 Norway
696 Cruise Ship
652 Switzerland
639 Japan
617 Denmark
503 Netherlands
500 Sweden
459 United Kingdom
314 Belgium
302 Austria
262 Qatar
195 Bahrain
178 Singapore
149 Malaysia
130 Israel
128 Australia
117 Canada
99 Greece
94 Czechia
89 Slovenia
85 Iceland
80 Kuwait
74 United Arab Emirates
73 India
71 Iraq
70 Thailand
69 San Marino
67 Egypt
61 Lebanon
59 Finland
59 Portugal
52 Brazil
52 Philippines
49 Romania
49 Taiwan*
49 Poland
45 Saudi Arabia
43 Ireland
39 Vietnam
34 Indonesia
28 Russia
24 Algeria
24 Georgia
23 Chile
22 Costa Rica
20 Pakistan

European rates are only showing such large numbers because their well developed health care systems  are testing for it.
Places like India, Indonesia Philippines  and Pakistan ? Only the elites have easy asses to medical care and testing.

In the USA?

“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”
― Issac Asimov

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 12, 2020, 05:34:32 PM »
Dow Jones Industrial Average

21,596.00 −1,957.22 (8.31%)

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 12, 2020, 06:23:06 AM »
The USA is more of a risk to the rest of us then Europe will ever be.
Anti science nutbars are running the country.

No socialized  health care system, no mandated sick pay and no compassion for those less fortunate will fuck the USA big time  in the next few  months.

The  bright side is the virus  will  cull the Fox news watching demographic.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 10, 2020, 10:11:44 PM »
The numbers say over3%
Any thing less is denial. You can cherry pick numbers but caution is needed to not be confounded by demographics and responses that may not be possible in all cases
The leval of socal controll in China is not going to happen in the west.
Bubba ain't gonna obay your rules.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: March 10, 2020, 08:35:34 PM »
UK EV Market Share At 5.7% In February, Doubling Year On Year, As Diesel Sales Collapse

France Nudges 8% EV Market Share In February — Best Of The Big Markets

Sweden’s EV Market Share = 24%! (Petrol & Diesel Continue To Melt)

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: March 09, 2020, 08:53:18 PM »
Definition of Luddite
: one of a group of early 19th century English workmen destroying laborsaving machinery as a protest
broadly : one who is opposed to especially technological change.

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 09, 2020, 05:39:37 PM »
The pundits dont get it .
The bite has only just started we are only at the beginning of the global pandemic.
What happens when large  parts of every country are in lock down ?
Gas price who cares?
No one will be going anywhere
Tourism is gonna die. hotels, tour company's, cruise lines, airlines, restaurants, concert venues all going bankrupt. That is about 5% of GDP for the OECD evaporating over night.

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 09, 2020, 09:32:33 AM »
Crude plummeted....
The fracking boom is losing billions as is.
With the oil price collapsing?
The   implosion of the fracking industry alone  could be enough to place  the USA into recession.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: March 09, 2020, 03:06:11 AM »
How Tesla Sets Itself Apart
Harvard Business Review .
In my view, the traditional automakers are ill prepared to compete in today’s software-centered world. Unlike nimble Tesla, they are big, bureaucratic, slow to respond to customers, dependent on providing customer financing for unit sales growth, and culturally different from a software company.

And they know it. Last fall, the chairman of Volkswagen — still reeling from its auto-emission scandal — declared Tesla a “serious competitor.” The biggest challenge VW and other leading automakers face is that they lack the expertise required to compete in the age of the software car.  Tesla and its flamboyant, and sometimes erratic, innovator Elon Musk have turned the more than a century old industry upside down in a mere 16 years.

Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 08, 2020, 07:25:27 PM »
Where is a good place to keep track of cases outside China?

Consequences / Re: Global recession
« on: March 06, 2020, 08:43:38 PM »
WTI Crude 41.36  :o

We have not seen anything yet wait until airlines , tourism and entertainment venues  start collapsing.

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: March 06, 2020, 08:37:08 PM »
I think used battery's will flood into the developing world and allow them to frog leap our electrical grids just as they have gone straight to cell phones not run out wire.
It cost me less to build a solar and battery system than run a wire 350m up my drive.
If you are in a remote location anywhere the costs of grid connect are prohibitive. 
Solar panels are  now cheap used car battery's will make off grid storage cheap as well
It costs far less to use ex Tesla car modules than lead acid in the USA.
$49 kWh 1000 cycles vrs $240 kWh 1000 cycles for Trojan 105's .

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