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Messages - petm

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 12
1
But entanglement is immediate - happens totally simultaneously, with information travelling at infinitely more than the speed of light.

As far as I understand it, entanglement does not involve propagation but simply uncovering a pre-existing state. But I'm no quantum physicist.

The reason that I mention water waves is that presumably that's how melt water is moved around the oceans.

Edit: This is relevant, showing a correlation of increased local/regional sea-level with increased river discharge: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1805428115 .

3
Science / Re: Validation of GCM Models
« on: Today at 08:58:27 PM »
Models are continually evaluated as to how they perform compared to observations and each other.
https://www.wcrp-climate.org/news/wcrp-news/1478-cmip6-first-results

Great thanks. These are interesting and to me surprising. (Haven't found the equivalent yet for CMIP6.)

The CMIPs seem to be overprojecting current surface warming? And despite this, CMIP5 projects increased warming compared to CMIP3, increasing the overprotection. Is this corrected in CMIP6?

Is there an issue with overfitting? The hindcasts seem to do much better than the forecasts.


5
The forum / Re: ASIF Statistics
« on: Today at 08:21:30 PM »
Quote
Most Online Today: 3995. Most Online Ever: 3995 (Today at 08:49:03 AM)

?! Some kind of publicity today? Or bots?

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: Today at 08:01:36 PM »
lol

if only

if only the government cared at all about the truth and the future

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 06:08:07 PM »
Conclusion i can't provide but perhaps a few ideas to be falsified so to get closer to the reasons(s)

All seem like good points to me. I wish I knew more about the dependence of heat transfer from air to surface on wind speed, temperature, and humidity. Just how much heat can be transferred from wind alone?

One more point to add to your list: it's generally easier to melt ice in the shallow peripheral seas than the basins.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 05:46:13 PM »
It's physical, not metaphysical. Noting is "immediate", not even gravity waves. And ocean waves do not travel at the speed of light. But relative to diffusion, ocean waves do travel extremely quickly.

https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/gravitational-waves/en/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_wave#Physics_of_waves

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: Today at 05:32:46 PM »
Ignorance and also extreme hubris. Society values dazzle over capability -- yet another failing of human nature that leads inexorably to self-destruction. The people holding the purse strings are mostly not themselves gifted, except possibly at self-promotion, and are no better equipped to judge real competence than the narcissists themselves.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 04:06:44 PM »
The Polarstern (Polar Star), a German research ship, will drift across the Central Arctic by tying itself to a large ice flow for months through the winter dark.

That'll be great to follow. Good luck finding a large floe!



In the Laptev sector, another day with little detected change in concentration, despite continued heat. Is this ice too thick to respond this year (in terms of extent)? On the Pacific side, as noted by others, advection southward is being largely offset by melt, while on the Atlantic side, northward advection and melt continues. Fram export is accelerating.





On the other hand, WorldView shows the ice in the Laptev sector looking terribly weak. Could it be getting close to zero thickness over large areas? If not, there is at least space for significant compression (depending on winds).

https://go.nasa.gov/33DwZQV

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: Today at 03:32:53 PM »
Aug 11-17

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: Today at 02:30:26 AM »
a week after a solar road opened in China, its solar panels were stolen.

hahahaha

13
Has there been any comprehensive meta-analysis of anomalies from major model predictions over time? Seems like an obvious approach to help predict future trendiness and uncertainties, if there is a trend.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 17, 2019, 11:31:45 PM »
Big smoke (?) over Chukchi today.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 17, 2019, 10:22:22 PM »
Drift since Aug 1 (click).

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 17, 2019, 08:20:49 PM »
Five day forecast.
Should I keep posting these?

Yes, please.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 17, 2019, 08:07:08 PM »
Aug 10-16

After 2 days of large drops of the minimum in the Laptev sector, only small changes today. Retreat on the Atlantic side and advance on the Pacific side. Is the melt season starting to stall?

18
Another one:

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep32321

Maybe has potential, but it's been kicking around for quite a while with seemingly little traction. Why? Can it be done without reducing production?

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 16, 2019, 06:39:38 AM »
Its very unlikely that 2019 will finish below 2012 in extent.

True. On the other hand, I have been expecting the loss rate to slow for over a week now, and despite noting much dramatic happening with the weather, it hasn't. And now we have a heat plume coming off Siberia, with concurrent rapid losses. Maybe the wet ice is fooling the censors, but the satellite photos also look weak. And as A-Team showed, this is an area that had unusual export this year, so has mostly 1st year ice left.

Improbable, yes. Impossible, no. This weekend will be interesting. These screenshots are for Sunday, but the weather is bad off and on for days.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 16, 2019, 06:08:11 AM »
Huge losses again in Laptev sector. If this continues, there may be just enough time yet...

Aug 9-15. 5-day min. Click.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
« on: August 16, 2019, 05:18:28 AM »
Open on the latest CIS map it seems:


22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 16, 2019, 12:03:38 AM »

23
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: August 15, 2019, 11:37:44 PM »
MSM is too busy broadcasting Trumps moronic tweets to do any real journalism.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 15, 2019, 11:11:49 PM »
Nice image.

To me it looks like it's the start of the stream now draining the glacier. (Well, to be more accurate, the start is actually under the ice, out of sight.) So, it's a low point that has melted down to bedrock, leaving the small glacier to the right, which must be on higher ground, orphaned.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 05:44:48 AM »
Aug 8 - 14. 5-day min v original. Click.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 05:24:09 AM »
@Freegrass. Welcome. Nice GIF! :)

@ Renerpho. Cool tool. Didn't know about it.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:57:18 AM »
(Maybe someone can make a gif? I don't know how to do that yet)

Download the set of images you want, then go here: https://ezgif.com/maker . It's literally "EZ".

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:42:07 AM »
May I ask where I can get that ice concentration map?

Creme fumee?  :D

I get the maps early just by editing the date near the end of the URL. E.g. Go to https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/ , choose the options you want (e.g. NIC color), then click the map thumbnail. It will bring you to the full-sized map. From there, just edit the URL to today's date. The current day's map is turned sideways and has data gaps until the full map is available, which is around 11 pm EST.

(Or just bookmark any full sized map and edit the date after loading it.)

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:38:33 AM »
SST's north of laptev are turning orange.
I think its probably spurious

I'm not so sure. I've been watching the SSTs most days, and I've seen this before often, it seems to me, preceding or during strong melting. E.g. The Chukchi did it just before a strong melt a month or so ago. There's some similar patterns in the Beaufort too. Possibly where the ice has been reduced to just foam, the melting is no longer sufficient to suppress rising temps? Not sure.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 15, 2019, 04:27:58 AM »
Some nasty surprises are starting to wink thru the cloud as heat keeps pouring in from Eurasia.

Indeed. A peek at today's Bremen, below. Can almost picture someone standing on the Siberian coast with a giant blowtorch. Creme brule? Isn't that supposed to be thick ice there?


31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 15, 2019, 01:41:35 AM »
Wipneus, your graphs from the top post stopped updating about a week ago.

32
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: August 15, 2019, 01:36:20 AM »
awesome

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: August 15, 2019, 01:31:52 AM »
Jeebus not the guy who ruined computers. We're doomed.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 11:22:58 PM »
True. I guess between the floes (/slush?) then?

35
Consequences / Re: Laurentide II
« on: August 14, 2019, 10:56:36 PM »
Quote
Ice sheet discharge (icebergs plus meltwater) is mixed as freshwater with mean temperature −15 ◦C into the top three ocean layers (Fig. S6).

They're talking about the mean temp of icebergs plus meltwater => A lot of icebergs.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 10:51:34 PM »
Those are measured by satellite (with interpolation).

Quote
Satellite observations

The observations of the sea surface temperature are based upon observations from up to 10 different satellites, measuring in Infrared and Microwave wavelengths. The observations are obtained from the Ocean and Sea Ice SAF project (www.osi-saf.org) and from Group on High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (www.ghrsst.org).
-- http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

The yellows inside the melt edge may be due to melt ponds.

37
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 14, 2019, 10:46:24 PM »
There's a lot more than size and sun distance that may be required for life to evolve. Water. Magnetosphere. Even our unusual (large, close-in) moon may have had an important role (tides). Just to name a few.

Earth has only just evolved a species capable of interstellar communication. Say, ~100 years / 5 billion years of Earth's existence. And we've almost wiped ourselves out already with nukes, and here comes global environmental devastation... Seems to me that the great filter is highly plausible.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 10:24:50 PM »
Looks like a GAC hit the markets today. DJIA melted nearly 3%.
I scurried over to the Glossary before I got that. :-[ Well played, if not OT.  :)
I found "Diakonisches Jahr im Ausland" (for young Lutheran volunteers).
;D DJIA. OT very -- apologies.

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 09:36:09 PM »
Looks like a GAC hit the markets today. DJIA melted nearly 3%.

40
The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: August 14, 2019, 09:25:00 PM »
Don't you guys read? They're everywhere!  ;D

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_reported_UFO_sightings

41
Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 14, 2019, 09:15:36 PM »
All good points, both. There is a lot of uncertainty and missing information. Gerontocrat's point about new sources / extraction technologies and Blumenkraft's about low hanging fruit are connected. The low hanging fruit of traditional extraction may be almost picked (except for thus-far protected areas -- including in the Arctic -- that are not immune from pilfering from the likes of Trump), but who knows how much additional LNG or other yet-to-be discovered sources there are?

Hopefully none. Fingers crossed.

42
Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 14, 2019, 08:09:09 PM »
I doubt electrics will be anything more than a niche market for another 30+ years.
Honestly curious. Why would that be?
No data in this case. Just based on my perception of sentiment in the States (as I implied). I agree that if it becomes much cheaper to get an EV than an ICE, the obvious would happen. But will it? I've been hearing talk of peak oil for several decades now...


43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: August 14, 2019, 07:37:03 PM »
You murdered a whole day!?! :-0

44
Policy and solutions / Re: Robots and AI: Our Immortality or Extinction
« on: August 14, 2019, 07:29:04 PM »
"Westerners have been the most upset by the robot," said Goto, noting largely positive feedback from Japanese visitors.

That is interesting isn't it.

https://youtu.be/HQBp-59Nyws?t=50

45
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2019, 07:17:34 PM »

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 vs 2012
« on: August 14, 2019, 07:00:35 PM »
True about leap years, except... What's actually happening is the days are shifting relative to the astronomical calendar (e.g. summer solstice) every year. Leap years just reset this drift, in effect jumping back about 3/4 of a day relative to the previous year. Actually it's even worse, since to stay aligned with the astronomical calendar, the leap year has to be skipped 3 out of every 4 centuries.

I have the feeling that using day of year vs. date just makes it easier to plot Feb. 29th.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Summer_solstice


47
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: August 14, 2019, 05:44:48 PM »
I.e., People are selfish as*&^%s, so we're f*&^ed.

Yup.

On the bright side, it looks like we may be heading for a global recession soon, so at least that taps the brakes a little.

48
Policy and solutions / Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:57:38 PM »
You should hear the rhetoric here in America. Any progress that was made toward environmental awareness up to 2016 is now rolled back by a decade at least. I doubt electrics will be anything more than a niche market for another 30+ years.

49
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:44:55 PM »
The Golden Rule

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:32:36 PM »
Could go to 2nd lowest on record?

I think at least 2nd in extent is almost clinched now, unless perhaps there is a dispersive pattern at the last moment.

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