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Messages - Juan C. García

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 37
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 05:37:50 AM »
Seems like the ads.nipr.ac.jp website is offline, will check again soon to see if it's online.
Yes, it is also happening to me. I will try to post later...

Edit:

The ADS server has been out of order for more than 40 minutes. It is time for me to go to bed.
I appreciate if someone else post the data.

Thanks.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

2nd Edit:

A message from ADS:

2
Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast!  ;)

3
Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast!  ;)

4
Two days left to make your vote or change your vote!
And write us about your forecast!  ;)

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: July 08, 2020, 09:07:40 PM »

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 07:56:24 PM »
And I still think that the lack of airplane aerosols is worsening the impact of the GAAC.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 07:44:54 PM »
GAAC

Great Arctic Anti Cyclone

Has it occurred before?
I would bet that it has happened before. But it is worse with the actual ice conditions.
The problem now is that a GAAC can kill a large part of the ice. An a GAC will do the same job. Both are terrible: the ice is vulnerable either way.
The 2020 timing can also be very bad. A GAAC in the begginning of July is very bad, a GAC later will be worst.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 08, 2020, 05:52:30 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 7th, 2020:
     8,001,159 km2, a century drop of -179,077 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: July 07, 2020, 05:15:39 PM »
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
July poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 HC (High confidence)
July poll for NSIDC: 3.75-4.25M km2 HC (High confidence)
July poll for PIOMAS: 3.75-4.25K km3 HC (High confidence)

10
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2
I changed my vote one bin down, to 3.75-4.25M km2.

11
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3
I changed my vote one bin down, to 3.75-4.25K km3

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 05:05:54 PM »
Compaction is a strong extent killer and makes for big headlines. The more important questions at this stage are what happens with area - which also dropping fast, and especially volume/thickness - which one can only imagine is breaking some daily records.
I note that wind-induced Fram export has not started yet. The smaller Nares is already half empty and racing for the exit.
NSIDC Total Area as at 06-Jul-2020 (5 day trailing average) 6,142,884 KM2         
Sea ice area loss on this day 113 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average loss of 105 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #1 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 522 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 1,193 k less than the 2000's average         
- 2020 Area is 324 k less than 2016         
- 2020 Area is 72 k less than 2019          
- 2020 Area is 101 k less than 2012

2020 is the lowest in extent (according to ADS JAXA by 221K km2 against 2016 [2nd lowest]) and it is also the lowest in area.
It doesn't look good at all!

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:17:50 AM »
It seems that the high pressure system and the lack of aerosols are adding up. It is going to be an interesting second half of the melting season.
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2020:
     8,180,236 km2, an almost double century drop of -194,704 km2:o

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:11:21 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2020:
     8,180,236 km2, an almost double century drop of -194,704 km2:o
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 07, 2020, 05:47:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 6th, 2020:

It seems that the ADS server is not working.
I have 3 options of internet connection and I haven't been able to connect in anyone of them.     

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. It is working now. Soon I will post.

16
Science / Re: Satellite News
« on: July 06, 2020, 07:37:30 PM »
And I think that NSIDC will use a new satellite too.
It is just that will have new capabilities. Not like the 40 years old satellites...

Could ICESAT-2 replace the traditional NSIDC stats?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=kanl64Yx5VI&feature=emb_logo

17
Science / Re: Satellite News
« on: July 06, 2020, 07:21:25 PM »
You are incorrectly informed. JAXA firmly intends to launch into space a replacement AMSR2, AMSR3, around 2023.

This spring there was even news that the manufacturer of the new satellite was selected.

https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Mitsubishi_Electric_to_build_GOSAT_GW_satellite_to_study_atmospheric_and_hydro_cycles_999.html

In the near future, we will only lose NSDIC data. They are low resolution, and now are of little value.
Great news ArcticMelt2!
I just hope that AMSR2 will hold on for another 3 years!
And I think that NSIDC will use a new satellite too.
It is just that will have new capabilities. Not like the 40 years old satellites...

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 06, 2020, 05:45:33 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 5th, 2020:
     8,374,940 km2, a century drop of -132,082 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 05, 2020, 05:42:12 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 4th, 2020:
     8,507,022 km2, a century drop of -126,111 km2.
     2020 is the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 04, 2020, 06:00:07 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 3rd, 2020:
     8,633,133 km2, a century drop of -119,837 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 10 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 03, 2020, 05:53:25 AM »
Hudson Bay doesn't look good...

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 03, 2020, 05:47:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 2nd, 2020:
     8,752,970 km2, a drop of -63,951 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 02, 2020, 06:33:26 AM »
Is this the first time 2020 has been lowest?
Also, for only 1 day, on March 28th.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 02, 2020, 05:52:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 1st, 2020:
     8,816,921 km2, a century drop of -101,897 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

25
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2

26
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2

27
June poll for JAXA: 3.50-4.00M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for NSIDC: 4.00-4.50M km2 MC (Medium confidence)
June poll for PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3 MC (Medium confidence)
I will keep my June forecast:
PIOMAS: 4.00-4.50K km3

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 01, 2020, 06:20:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 30th, 2020:
     8,918,818 km2, a century drop of -131,412 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 01:13:34 AM »
It is true according to Nullschool. Impressive!

30
Until 2004, all years were above 10,000 km3. The years 2005 and 2006 were on the 9,000-10,000 km3 range. And from 2007 to 2019, the volume has been at 7,250 km3 or under. The worst year [2012] was 3,787 km3.

Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

Year    Sept. Avg.
          (103 km3)
2000      11.08
2001      12.28
2002      10.85
2003      10.28
2004      10.04
2005        9.28
2006        9.11
2007        6.53
2008        7.25
2009        6.93
2010        4.74
2011        4.48
2012        3.79
2013        5.48
2014        6.97
2015        5.85
2016        4.53
2017        4.68
2018        5.08
2019        4.19

From lowest to highest:

31
Arctic sea ice / NSIDC 2020 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
« on: July 01, 2020, 12:07:29 AM »
ATTENTION: There are two ASI extent polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum [provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP)].
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2019 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71
2019             4.32

From lowest to highest:

32
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in September 2020, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September mínimums have been:

 Year               Extent
                  10^6 km2
1980's Avg.     7.19
1990's Avg.     6.49
2000's Avg.     5.41
2010's Avg.     4.33
2000               6.04
2001               6.55
2002               5.51
2003               5.93
2004               5.68
2005               5.18
2006               5.63
2007               4.07
2008               4.50
2009               5.05
2010               4.62
2011               4.27
2012               3.18
2013               4.81
2014               4.88
2015               4.26
2016               4.02
2017               4.47
2018               4.46
2019               3.96

Order by lowest to highest:

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 30, 2020, 06:29:15 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 29th, 2020:
     9,050,230 km2, a century drop of -129,846 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

P.S. The lowest is 2010, but soon it is going to lose this place.
      2020 is very close to 2nd. lowest.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 29, 2020, 06:24:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 27th, 2020:
     9,244,082 km2, a drop of -47,682 km2.

June 28th, 2020:
     9,180,076 km2, a drop of -64,006 km2.
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 28, 2020, 06:06:47 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 27th, 2020:
The data is half and hour late.
I will look for it in an hour.

P.S. Still waiting.
In my opinion and without the data, Bremen seems to show an important drop, specially on Hudson Bay.

P.S. [2]  ADS is now two hours late. It is time for me to go to bed.
If someone else post the update...
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Good morning, afternoon or night, where ever you are.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 27, 2020, 06:00:53 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 26th, 2020:
     9,291,764 km2, a drop of -56,299 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 26, 2020, 05:47:11 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 25th, 2020:
     9,348,063 km2, a drop of -88,914 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 25, 2020, 06:46:16 AM »
In lieu of Juan's update.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 24th, 2020:
     9,436,977 km2, a drop of -100,451 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record, 105,126 km2 behind 2016.
Thanks wdmn  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 24th, 2020:
     9,436,977 km2, a century drop of -100,451 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 24, 2020, 06:08:13 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 23rd, 2020:
     9,537,428 km2, a drop of -78,754 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 23, 2020, 05:58:26 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 22nd, 2020:
     9,616,182 km2, a drop of -83,999 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 22, 2020, 05:58:35 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 21st, 2020:
     9,700,181 km2, a drop of -52,346 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 21, 2020, 07:36:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 20th, 2020:
     9,752,527 km2, a drop of -51,249 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 20, 2020, 06:30:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 19th, 2020:
     9,803,776 km2, a drop of -38,016 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 19, 2020, 06:42:55 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 18th, 2020:
     9,841,792 km2, a drop of -48,634 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 18, 2020, 11:03:57 AM »
That storm I've been tracking for a few days now with 6 hour updates on the Nullschool Thread is becoming a monster according to the latest long term forecast. It keeps finding new hot and moist air to feed on. Can we start calling this the 2020 GAC now?
In my opinion, this forecast is far away. I am more concern about the heat that we will have on several regions on the following days. Could 2020 become the lowest on record?

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 18, 2020, 06:22:00 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 17th, 2020:
     9,890,426 km2, a drop of -64,159 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 17, 2020, 06:42:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 16th, 2020:
     9,954,585 km2, a drop of -74,550 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 16, 2020, 05:48:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 15th, 2020:
     10,029,135 km2, a drop of -64,414 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: June 15, 2020, 06:42:09 AM »
Just by looking at it, it looks like the North Sea route will open earlier than usual. Very hot on the Russian side for two years, almost without winter.
Two weeks later...

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 15, 2020, 06:15:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 14th, 2020:
     10,093,549 km2, a drop of -49,451 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     Highlighted 2020 & the 4 years with a daily lowest min in Sept. (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007).
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

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