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Messages - Juan C. García

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: Today at 05:01:51 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 19th, 2019:
     13,996,972 km2, a drop of -8,966 km2.
     2019 is now 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)

2
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: March 19, 2019, 03:24:45 PM »
https://apnews.com/e0ceae76d5894734b0041210a902218d

In hindsight, he said, it might not have been a bad idea to inform the public about the worst of “dozens of spills.”

Ya think?

Just wait until the next storm that dumps 80 inches of rain instead of 50 inches...and it will happen...
Related ...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1858.msg191257.html#msg191257

Post-Hurricane Harvey, NASA Tried To Fly a Pollution-Spotting Plane over Houston… Trump's EPA Said No!
https://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-nasa-jet-epa-hurricane-harvey-20190305-story.html

Now on Deer Park (TX), the situation has changed from flooding to chemical plant fire. Parents are concerned that kids are allowed to go to schools close to the fire. Seems to me that authorities are more concerned on keeping the business as usual, than concerned on the children's health.

https://abc13.com/parents-concerned-after-classes-resume-while-itc-fire-still-burns/5205019/

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 19, 2019, 04:52:24 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 18th, 2019:
     14,005,938 km2, a drop of -11,345 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 19, 2019, 01:50:44 AM »
JAXA max extent on March 12th, with an extent on 14,271,121 km^2. This requires a daily extent loss of -72,520 km^2 for 183 straight days (on average) for a blue ocean event to occur.
I like your comment, but the truth, I discard a blue ocean event (BOE) on the near future.

I think that we are on a new stage, in which it will be bad enough if on the following 12 years (2030):
   a) We have 3 years like 2012 or a little worst.
   b) We have an increase in the annual average sea level rise.
   c) We have an increase in methane emissions, because of permafrost melting.

I think that we have a big probability of seeing these three events on the following 12 years, no matter what we do.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 18, 2019, 04:45:54 AM »
Juan & Ger thanks for reporting on this winter season.
I'll join the public thanking ceremony. JCG's and Ger's area/extent posts are the ones I first read whenever I get the chance.
Thanks everyone! It really felt like a public thanking ceremony!   ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 17th, 2019:
     14,017,283 km2, a drop of -76,098 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 also highlighted)

6
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: How quickly could Greenland melt?
« on: March 17, 2019, 05:07:00 PM »
The channel's name is "Just have a Think". The author will put more videos like this online over the next weeks.

A new video of the same autor: "Greenland Ice Sheet : Is it stable?"

7
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: March 17, 2019, 03:37:20 PM »
Juan, go to your profile -> profile info -> show posts -> likes given.

That'll give you an overview of everything you have 'liked', and should make it easy to find stuff, unless you 'like' a whole lot.  ;)


Thanks for the answers, Neven & Oren.
Both ways work. I am looking to a procedure like the one Neven comments. But, yes, I have give a lot of "likes". When I like a comment, I mark it, but that doesn't mean that I want to have a bookmark. Maybe I should reduce my "likes", but it is also a way to express thanks to others people work. I will think about it.
 

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 17, 2019, 04:49:38 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 16th, 2019:
     14,093,381 km2, a drop of -55,149 km2.
     2019 is now 7th lowest on record.
     (2012 also highlighted)

9
The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: March 17, 2019, 04:18:41 AM »
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube

Excellent video Stephan!

Makes me wonder if, apart from the "like" button, we could have a "keep" button, in which we can mark [bookmark] the posts that we really like and we want to have a way to keep them mark for future reference.

Could that be possible?

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: March 17, 2019, 04:17:14 AM »
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube

Excellent video Stephan!

Makes me wonder if, apart from the "like" button, we could have a "keep" button, in which we can mark the posts that we really like and we want to have a way to keep them mark for future reference.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 16, 2019, 04:59:23 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 15th, 2019:
     14,148,530 km2, a drop of -36,376 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.

P.S. 2012 is the 19th. lowest and is 518K km2 above 2019...

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 15, 2019, 04:48:08 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 14th, 2019:
     14,184,906 km2, a drop of -39,757 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.

13
I think that Greta Thunberg is starting a huge movement. It is interesting the reactions that she is generating. These are just some examples:

Quote
‘Our future is what we are fighting for’
 
The Washington Post spoke with kids around the country about who they are and why they're striking. They told stories about climate change touching their lives, shared photos from their social media accounts, and explained why they are no longer willing to wait for adults to act on their behalf. Their interviews are edited for length and clarity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-change-kids/?utm_term=.0f456fb979bf&wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1


And:

Quote
1659 places in 105 countries. And counting.
Tomorrow we schoolstrike for our future. And we will continue to do so for as long as it takes.
Adults are more than welcome to join us.
Unite behind the science.
https://twitter.com/GretaThunberg/status/1106071099165601792

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« on: March 14, 2019, 03:36:59 PM »
New max on March 12th: 14.27M km2.

Only 7 participants were right with this new value on range 14.125-14.375.
Not me...   8)

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 14, 2019, 12:05:17 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

New max on March 12th: 14,271,121 km2.
Congrats Neven! You were right holding up the max call!  ;)
 
March 13th, 2019:
     14,224,663 km2, a drop of -46,458 km2.
     2019 is 8th lowest on record.


17
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 12, 2019, 04:56:44 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

I was looking  to congratulate Neven today, for holding on the call of the max for the 2018-19 freezing season.
But on JAXA data, we will have to wait to be sure.  :(

18
Quote
The Elfstedentocht translates to “eleven cities tour.” It’s an ice skating race that measures about 135 miles and takes place on the canals that connect the 11 cities in the Friesland province of the Netherlands. The 110-year-old event is wildly popular — the next race is expected to attract 26,000 participants, 2 million spectators and 3,000 journalists and will surely draw the attention of nearly every person in the country — largely because of the long wait and grim forecast associated with it.

The race only takes place when conditions allow; when extreme winter bowls over the region, the temperatures drop, and the canals freeze over. But the Netherlands is no longer a romantic wintry wonderland, and there hasn’t been an Elfstedentocht since 1997, marking the longest drought ever between races. Climate change has endangered the race and is slowly dousing hopes across the province.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2019/03/07/feature/in-the-netherlands-ice-skating-is-in-the-dna-a-warming-climate-could-change-that/?utm_term=.25af49c6a376
Quote
Warmer temperatures have caused race organizers in Alaska to alter the Iditarod’s route in recent years, and across both Canada and the United States, there are fewer frozen ponds safe enough for outdoor hockey. The ski and snowboard season starts later, and many resorts increasingly rely on man-made snow. One study estimates the ski season could be 50 percent shorter by 2050.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 11, 2019, 05:53:02 AM »
I am not able to access the ADS NIPR page. It sends me to twitter, but there is no message on twitter explaining what is happening.  :(
Maybe someone of you will access the data...

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 10, 2019, 05:04:32 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 9th, 2019:
     14,150,474 km2, an increase of 32,725 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 44,087 km2 to reach a new max.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 09, 2019, 05:19:29 AM »
Hang on - the max so far is 14,194,560. Surely it needs 101,100 k or so, not 27k?
Sorry, my mistake.  :P

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 8th, 2019:
     14,117,749 km2, an increase of 24,265 km2.
     2019 is now 9th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 76,812 km2 to reach a new max.

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 08, 2019, 04:55:40 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 7th, 2019:
     14,093,484 km2, an increase of 26,963 km2.
     2019 is now 8th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 26,964 101,077 km2 to reach a new max.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: March 07, 2019, 11:19:21 PM »
Who would have thought that the summer minimum would cease to drop over the last decade?  Many recent publications have sought to explain this.  I tend to agree that I will not live long enough to witness a BOE.

There has been a "cease to drop" on extent, but not necessarily is the same on volume:

On extent, the ASI has not even able to break the 2007 record, not to mention the 2012 record. So, there are some people saying that 2012 is an outlier and even 2007 will be difficult to break. But I don’t like extent! Yes, it is important to measure the effect of the Arctic Ocean albedo. But to measure the ASI drop, I am convinced that we should use volume, even if it is harder to measure than extent.

So, what do I see on volume?

First, volume on 2007 has been broken several times. On volume, [September] 2007 is the ninth lowest on record! And even that September 2012 is still the lowest, the difference between 2012 with 2010-2011 and 2016-17 is not that big.

The 39.5% ice that we have on 2010-18, versus the 1979-2000 baseline, is climate change, not just one year, not weather change.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 07, 2019, 04:59:27 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 6th, 2019:
     14,066,521 km2, an increase of 22,245 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 128,040 km2 to reach a new max.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: March 07, 2019, 03:55:20 AM »
Let’s assume that on June 1st, 2022 we will have a new record of only 9.5 million km2 of ASI extent and the weather is going to promote melting for the following 2 months, with a high pressure system all around the Arctic. Then on August, we are going to have some Great Arctic Cyclones, like the one we have on 2012.

Let’s assume two settings for June 1st, 2022:

1. On the first one, we are going to have an average ice thickness of 2.6 meters, like the one we had on 1980, with 90% of the ice being 5+ years old (yes, I know it is not going to happen  ;) ).

2. On the second setting, we are going to have an average thickness of 1.5 meters, like the one that we had on 2017. Let’s assume that 80% of the ice is 1st year old.

Well, we start with the same extent on both settings, but IMHO, at the end of August we could be having something close to a BOE in the second setting, but not on the first.

So, it is important the volume and also the quality of the ice that we have.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: March 06, 2019, 05:54:22 AM »
Please note that this is not a forecast but a trend!
See attached table.
Great table Stephan!

Of course (as my signature says), I believe that volumen has the real trend, extent and thickness are just partial views of reality. Even so, I think that some negative feedbacks will start to slow down the volume melting trend. So I thinking that we will have a BOE on September until 2040+.
Maybe it is just a good wish, and positive feedbacks will rule the near future.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 06, 2019, 05:21:10 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 5th, 2019:
     14,044,276 km2, an increase of 13,681 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 150,284 km2 to reach a new max.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 05, 2019, 04:57:24 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 4th, 2019:
     14,030,595 km2, an increase of 15,699 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     It needs an increase of 163,966 km2 to reach a new max.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 04, 2019, 10:37:36 AM »
I just noticed that 2012 was listed on position 15 in that table - and that later in that year its extent was way below of all other years. I think anything is possible on this date...

2012 had an increase of ice at the beginning of March and it didn't seem that it was going to break any record until the first half of June. I highlight 2012 on this graph (green line).Of course, the 2012 trajectory will look worst if the graph doesn't have the following years, specially 2015-2018.

Addendum: 2nd. graph - 2012 taking out the following years.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 04, 2019, 05:08:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 3rd, 2019:
     14,014,896 km2, an increase of 41,391 km2.
     2019 is 7th lowest on record.
     Now 2019 again above the 14M km2.
     It needs an increase of 179,665 km2 to reach a new max.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 03, 2019, 04:51:58 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Could Neven be right waiting to declare the maximum?
Well, here we go!  ::)

March 2nd, 2019:
     13,973,505 km2, an increase of 64,454 km2.
     2019 is now 7th lowest on record.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: March 02, 2019, 06:09:05 PM »
With ADS (JAXA) values, three years have increases above 285K km2 on March.
It is possible to have a new max on 2019, but seems difficult to me.
Let's wait and see…  ;)

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 02, 2019, 05:03:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 1st, 2019:
     13,909,051 km2, a drop of only -4,955 km2.
     2019 is now 4th lowest on record.

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 Melting Season
« on: March 02, 2019, 12:29:56 AM »
The only place I can see actually changing that I'd the Barents, but there the ice is fighting the highest imported heat in our history.
I agree. On the other hand, the heat that is coming from the Pacific is impressive (Anomaly of +5.1 °C on the Arctic).

35
Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: March 01, 2019, 10:53:20 PM »
Quote
A company called Blue Planet is converting carbon dioxide into building material

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/02/company-converts-carbon-dioxide-into-building-material/

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 Melting Season
« on: March 01, 2019, 07:09:22 PM »
Neven still hasn't got around to opening this thread, but "Snow White" has (prematurely?) called the 2019 maximum over on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1101471926390870016

Here's the "JAXA" version. Discuss!


I like this topic on March 1st!!!  ;D
The reason is not just the day. I find it very difficult that in March we can have a new maximum in JAXA (excluding NSIDC).

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 01, 2019, 06:00:49 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 28th, 2019:
     13,914,006 km2, a drop of -44,911 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     Six consecutive drops. Total drop from Feb 22nd max: -280,554 km2.

38
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science and the Environment
« on: February 28, 2019, 08:34:26 PM »
Quote
The Senate on Thursday approved former coal lobbyist Andrew Wheeler to head the Environmental Protection Agency by a vote of 52 to 47, elevating a veteran of Washington political and industry circles who has advanced President Trump’s push to rollback Obama-era environmental regulations.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/02/28/andrew-wheeler-former-energy-lobbyist-confirmed-nations-top-environmental-official/?utm_term=.e71226bdb283&wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1

39
Science / Ocean oxygen levels
« on: February 28, 2019, 07:51:01 AM »
Quote
Widespread and sometimes drastic marine oxygen declines are stressing sensitive species—a trend that will continue with climate change
...
In the past decade ocean oxygen levels have taken a dive—an alarming trend that is linked to climate change, says Andreas Oschlies, an oceanographer at the Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel in Germany, whose team tracks ocean oxygen levels worldwide. “We were surprised by the intensity of the changes we saw, how rapidly oxygen is going down in the ocean and how large the effects on marine ecosystems are,” he says.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-ocean-is-running-out-of-breath-scientists-warn/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=weekly-review&utm_content=link&utm_term=2019-02-27_featured-this-week&spMailingID=58597866&spUserID=Mzg1NDE5MjQyNDEyS0&spJobID=1583431364&spReportId=MTU4MzQzMTM2NAS2

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 28, 2019, 04:49:44 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 27th, 2019:
     13,958,917 km2, a drop of -36,445 km2.
     2019 is the 7th lowest on record.

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 27, 2019, 06:38:20 AM »
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.  8)
I posted the numbers on the poll.

According to NSIDC, the maximum extent was reached on Feb. 25 in 2015, Mar. 17 in 2016, and on Mar. 12 in 2006.  I stand by statement.

Ok. I thought that you were talking about ADS JAXA.  ;)

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 27, 2019, 06:32:31 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 26th, 2019:
     13,995,362 km2, a drop of -23,098 km2.
     2019 is now the 7th lowest on record.

(Sorry I am late. Problems with internet...  :( )

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 26, 2019, 07:36:51 PM »
Only once in the past two decades has the maximum occurred in Feb.  So, I give it a 5% chance that the maximum is already in.

There are 3 years (2015, 2007 & 2016), not only one.  8)
I posted the numbers on the poll.
"Date of max" and "max", sorted by date.
On 2019, the max is to date (Feb 25th).

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Guess the date of the max
« on: February 26, 2019, 07:27:40 PM »
Extent max and difference versus Feb 25th.

There are 24 years that didn't have the increase needed, to have a new max on 2019, versus the Feb 22, 2019 extent.
[Extent in "1,000,000 km2", Difference in "1,000 km2"]

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: Guess the date of the max
« on: February 26, 2019, 07:13:00 PM »
"Date of max" and "max", sorted by month and day.
On 2019, the max is to date (Feb 25th).

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 26, 2019, 04:48:43 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 25th, 2019:
     14,018,460 km2, a drop of -56,543 km2.   :o
     2019 is now the 8th lowest on record.


P.S. Max to date: 14,194,560 km2 on Feb 22th.
       Difference of 176,100 km2 versus Feb 25th.
 

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Guess the date of the max
« on: February 25, 2019, 06:27:35 AM »
Surely I will be wrong, but let's make a risky guess and put it on February.  ;)

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 25, 2019, 05:46:01 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 24th, 2019:
     14,075,003 km2, a drop of -80,915 km2.   :o
     2019 is now the 9th lowest on record.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 24, 2019, 04:53:34 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 23rd, 2019:
     14,155,918 km2, a drop of -38,642 km2.
     2019 is now the 10th lowest on record.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 22, 2019, 05:03:02 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
February 21st, 2019:
     14,167,494 km2, an increase of  82,039 km2.
     2019 is now the 12th lowest on record.

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