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Messages - Jim Hunt

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: Today at 04:11:07 PM »
The latest numbers from the UK:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

Quote
As of 9am on 28 March 2020, a total of 120,776 people have been tested, of which 103,687 were confirmed negative and 17,089 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 27 March 2020, 1,019 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

That's 260 deaths in 24 hours.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: March 27, 2020, 08:56:38 PM »
So it's because of the satellite, not the sun.

Actually, since your link is to MODIS imagery it's a bit of both. Try looking again in a couple of days.

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 27, 2020, 08:39:42 PM »
Fired up the DeLorean

In more recent news from the once Great Britain, according to the BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52060791

Quote
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said he had also tested positive while England's Chief Medical Officer, Prof Chris Whitty, has shown symptoms.

Another 181 people died with the virus in the past day.

It takes the total number of UK deaths to 759, with 14,543 confirmed cases.

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 27, 2020, 02:17:39 PM »
There are a fair few leads sprinkled across the Beaufort Sea, but no widespread areas of reduced concentration. To my eyes at least:

https://go.nasa.gov/2vX84M6

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: March 23, 2020, 10:24:01 PM »
U.K. is in lockdown.

The Grauniad's take:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/boris-johnson-orders-uk-lockdown-to-be-enforced-by-police

I watched BoJo's speech to the Nation, followed by some of the ongoing debate on the Coronavirus Bill in the House of Commons:

https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/coronavirus.html

Given that "Some in policing are dubious whether they currently have the powers to enforce a lockdown" Boris was rather vague about what might happen to me if I get caught trying to take 2 lone bicycle rides in one day:

Quote
If you don’t follow the rules the police will have the powers to enforce them, including through fines and dispersing gatherings.


6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 29, 2020, 07:12:22 PM »
Last week ARCUS held a webinar on my favourite topic. “Ocean Waves in the New Arctic”, presented by Jim Thomson from the University of Washington.

A slightly less technical video featuring Jim Thomson and some big waves in the New Arctic:


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 29, 2020, 03:32:33 PM »
I would say that the early birds are those predicting an ice-free Arctic prior to 2030

I surreptitiously recorded that question being posed at The Economist's 2013 Arctic Summit in Oslo. Of course the assorted learned speakers might have revised their opinions since then? However have a listen:

https://soundcloud.com/water-connects-us/ice-free-summer-arctic-numbers

8
Arctic background / A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change
« on: February 29, 2020, 11:27:08 AM »
I guess you could argue this isn't the best place to announce the release of "A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change", a report by the allegedly "non partisan" National Security, Military and Intelligence Panel (NSMIP) of the Center for Climate and Security:

https://climateandsecurity.org/a-security-threat-assessment-of-global-climate-change/

However the report makes much mention of the Arctic, including by way of example:

Quote
Russian aggression towards the West may increase alongside severe warming, as it seeks to claim Arctic territories or productive agricultural lands outside its existing borders. Facing an intense threat of permafrost melt in its most northern latitudes, Russia will also face irreversible and costly impacts on its lands and infrastructure, with serious repercussions for the state of global emissions. Its current efforts to prop-up authoritarian governments, challenge political borders, and invade militarily in the European and nearby regions give us some indication of how Russia could exploit the political chaos arising from severe climate change.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: February 29, 2020, 09:55:35 AM »
Via Stefanie Arndt on Twitter:

Quote
We did it! It is incredible but we finally arrived at RV Polarstern - only 100 nm away from the North Pole - in the middle of Arctic winter.

At 14:17 ships time, we reached our final parking position - with an euphoric applause on the bridge:


10
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: February 25, 2020, 01:15:27 PM »
Via Stefan Hendricks on Twitter, a new discussion paper:

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2020-64/

Quote
The MOSAiC ice floe: sediment-laden survivor from the Siberian shelf

We show, using a Lagrangian tracking tool and a thermodynamic sea ice model, that the MOSAiC floe carrying the Central Observatory (CO) formed in a polynya event north of the New Siberian Islands at the beginning of December 2018. The results further indicate that sea ice in the vicinity of the CO (< 40 km distance) was younger and 36 % thinner than the surrounding ice with potential consequences for ice dynamics and momentum and heat transfer between ocean and atmosphere.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 23, 2020, 10:59:47 PM »
Interesting comments, jdallen & Jim  ;)

The abnormally low UH AMSR2 area didn't last. Possibly an artifact of recent "weather", or actual refreezing of actual low concentration areas created by said weather?

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 22, 2020, 11:30:38 PM »
Area hasn't climbed nearly as fast.

Especially if you look at Wipneus' high res version!

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 22, 2020, 02:36:53 PM »
It's not summer yet, but this new discussion paper makes interesting reading nonetheless:

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2020-35/

Quote
We report on results of a systematic inter-comparison of 10 global sea-ice concentration (SIC) data products at 12.5 to 50.0 km grid resolution from satellite passive microwave (PMW) observations for the Arctic during summer. The products are compared against SIC and net ice-surface fraction (ISF) – SIC minus the per-grid cell melt-pond fraction (MPF) on sea ice – as derived from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations and observed from ice-going vessels.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 22, 2020, 02:31:46 PM »
It's a bit cloudy, and today's daylight images haven't arrived yet, but band 31 reveals some recent movement in the Beaufort Sea:

https://go.nasa.gov/2ujNZ1x

15
Antarctica / An uncharted island in Pine Island Bay
« on: February 21, 2020, 11:49:18 PM »
An uncharted island in Pine Island Bay has recently been discovered:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00489-4



Quote
A scientific expedition off the coast of Antarctica earlier this month spotted an island that appears on no maps — a finding that demonstrates how quickly the continent is changing as a result of climate change.

“I think I see rocks,” shouted an officer aboard the RV Nathaniel B. Palmer as the ship passed through Pine Island Bay, Antarctica. After consulting their charts, the crew realized they were looking at a brand-new island.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 21, 2020, 05:50:29 PM »
Why does sea ice volume reach  a maximum 6 weeks after sea ice extent ?

Because the thin peripheral ice starts to melt even whilst the thick central ice continues to get thicker.

17
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: February 21, 2020, 12:54:48 PM »
A Channel 4 News report from what used to be the streets of Pontypridd in South Wales:



Quote
Have a look at that mountainside


18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 21, 2020, 10:26:58 AM »
New maximum extent.

It will be interesting to discover when Wipneus's hi res numbers follow suit. In the mean time DMI T2 has reacted as predicted:

19
Developers Corner / Re: CryoSat-2/SMOS Arctic Sea Ice Volume
« on: February 19, 2020, 06:10:27 PM »
What's the dotted red line?

It's the "uncertainty" numbers from the CS2 NetCDF gridded data. You'd need to ask Stefan precisely what it represents.

20
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data upto the 15th.

Thanks very much Wipneus.

Now I'm forced to ponder once again why the CryoSat-2/SMOS thickness "measured" numbers seem to be more at variance with PIOMAS than in previous years:


21
Developers Corner / Re: CryoSat-2/SMOS Arctic Sea Ice Volume
« on: February 19, 2020, 11:25:45 AM »
Another week's data, and the "blip" is gradually disappearing. NRT data starts on January 31st in this graph:

22
Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: February 17, 2020, 06:35:48 PM »
Will Portugal become the next Bolivia?

Nah - Cornwall will:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/tag/cornish-lithium/

We dug the mines a very long time ago!

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 17, 2020, 09:47:04 AM »
JAXA's AMSR2 extent has turned down again, but Wipneus's high resolution 3.125 km grid area never turned up! Hi res extent did, but barely.

JAXA includes the 16th. Hi res does not.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2020, 07:48:41 PM »
Wow! Just wow! Given that volume is the most important metric when measuring the long term health of arctic ice, this chart is scary.

Agreed, but it will be interesting to compare those numbers with the mid-month PIOMAS update, assuming that one appears this month.

For some reason this year CS2 and PIOMAS seem to be at variance more than usual, so a pinch or two of salt is required.

25
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: February 16, 2020, 03:05:15 PM »
I have just discovered that WorldView now offers geostationary imagery with 10 minute resolution.

Here's GOES-E at 09Z yesterday morning:

https://go.nasa.gov/2OZQDkb

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2020, 02:29:35 PM »
Here's the latest update of "Snow White's" novel "near real time" Arctic sea ice volume metric:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/#Feb-16

Please note that there is a known problem with the NRT data from January 31st onwards.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 16, 2020, 02:26:57 PM »
North Atlantic Storminess – February 13-15, 2020

See also the February 16th "Storm Dennis" update:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2984.msg249638.html#msg249638

28
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: February 16, 2020, 01:57:20 PM »
According to the Environment Agency this is the largest number of flood alerts/warnings ever issued simultaneously in the history of the English enclave of the once United Kingdom:



Note the recently flooded building site!

P.S. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/storm-dennis-triggers-red-rain-warning

29
Permafrost / Re: Permafrost general science thread
« on: February 16, 2020, 11:52:19 AM »
An enquiry from Claire O’Neill via Twitter:

Quote
Does anyone have good data on current permafrost melt rates? Sorry to ask so early on a Sunday!

Any suggestions?

30
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: February 16, 2020, 11:18:46 AM »
Hey Jim, you need a microphone windscreen. ;)

Turning my back to the prevailing wind was quite effective. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!

Meanwhile, here are the UKMO 0Z and NWS 6Z charts, plus the latest band of rain across South West England:

31
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: February 15, 2020, 11:41:52 PM »
The NWS 18Z chart for Storm Dennis. 920 hPa MSLP and the winds have certainly reached North Cornwall now!

Lisa the LEAF and I ventured out into them, and met another Lisa on the beach!


32
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: February 15, 2020, 10:11:02 PM »
Lisa the LEAF and I braved the worst that Storm Dennis could throw at us earlier today.

Our first video report, from the ridge above the North Cornish seaside:


33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 15, 2020, 01:29:38 PM »
I think we may look back at the explosion of Storm Ciara/Dennis as being a key point in the year.

As my alter ego has just pointed out over on Twitter:

In due course the "phenomenal winter warmth" from Storm Dennis will reach the  North Pole:

35
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: February 15, 2020, 11:14:55 AM »
The NWS 06Z chart. 936 hPa and "hurricane force" winds, although thankfully not yet in North Cornwall. The rain certainly has however!

Plus the UKMO's 12Z forecast:

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 14, 2020, 05:53:10 PM »
Jim - Are you calling it the maximum extent already? Yes or No - Or are you "kind of" in case it does happen and you can say you told us so?

I'm teasing a subset of Judith Curry's denizens.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: February 14, 2020, 05:51:03 PM »
In related news:

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/call-for-tender-procedure-for-the-construction-of-a-successor-to-the-icebreaker-polarstern-has-been.html

Quote
The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) today cancelled the Europe-wide call for tenders for the procurement of a new polar research vessel, Polarstern II, for legal reasons. In times of unresolved climate issues, the research mission of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) can only be fulfilled in the long term with a modern icebreaker. This understanding is also shared by the BMBF. Therefore, we will work intensively with the BMBF to find a solution, which also aims to set up a new award procedure. Among other things, the experiences from the current MOSAiC expedition will be incorporated into the planning process in order to develop an icebreaker that is as future-proof, powerful and sustainable as possible.

39
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: February 13, 2020, 11:59:05 PM »
If we're sticking with Dennis in here, then this is the 18Z chart and the 48 hour forecast.

Those isobars are pretty tightly packed over North Cornwall!


40
Arctic sea ice / Re: MOSAiC news
« on: February 13, 2020, 08:23:29 PM »
Via Stefanie Arndt on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/arndt_st/status/1228021694012547074

Quote
Today’s afternoon we crossed 85N but couldn’t see the grid line due to heavy snow storms. However, the ridged second-year sea ice and its thick snow layer on top slows us consistently down.


41
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: February 13, 2020, 05:20:30 PM »
920mb is hurricane country. 

I am used to hurricane force winds. I am located near the coast of North Cornwall!

However Dennis is not a hurricane.

42
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: February 13, 2020, 09:33:30 AM »
A new powerful storm will take aim at northwestern Europe later this week just days after Storm Ciara pounded several countries with high winds and torrential rain and killed at least eight people.

Storm Dennis was named by the U.K. Met Office on Tuesday. Computer forecast models predict this low-pressure system to intensify as it moves across the North Atlantic Ocean through Saturday, likely becoming a bomb cyclone.

I followed the progress of Ciara closely on Twitter last weekend. Starting here:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1226451525964304385

I will be doing much the same with Dennis this coming weekend. However neither of them are "hurricanes" or "tropical cyclones". Are we broadening the remit of this thread?

If so:

43
Arctic background / Re: Importance of waves in the Arctic
« on: February 13, 2020, 09:22:52 AM »
Thanks Juan.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 12, 2020, 07:02:27 PM »
Last week ARCUS held a webinar on my favourite topic. “Ocean Waves in the New Arctic”, presented by Jim Thomson from the University of Washington.

Here's the story of how I only managed to watch the second half live:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/02/jim-thomson-waves-in-ice-webinar/

and here's the recording:



Essential viewing. IMHO!

45
Developers Corner / Re: CryoSat-2/SMOS Arctic Sea Ice Volume
« on: February 12, 2020, 10:41:11 AM »
Note that Stefan Hendricks has flagged up an “issue” with the CryoSat-2 NRT data:

https://spaces.awi.de/display/SIRAL/2020/02/11/CryoSat-2+-+missing+NRT+data+in+baseline-D

The NRT Level-1 data to the CryoSat-2 sea ice product is missing several orbits, mostly in the Russian Arctic as can be seen in the figure below.



46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: February 11, 2020, 12:43:27 PM »
Together with the latest CS2/SMOS volume. The "blip" at the end of January will probably disappear when the "reanalysed" data reaches that date:

Stefan Hendricks has just explained "the blip":

https://spaces.awi.de/display/SIRAL/2020/02/11/CryoSat-2+-+missing+NRT+data+in+baseline-D

Quote
The NRT Level-1 data to the CryoSat-2 sea ice product is missing several orbits, mostly in the Russian Arctic.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Near Real Time Sea Ice Volume
« on: February 11, 2020, 12:39:00 PM »
Hi all users of the CryoSat-2/SMOS sea-ice thickness dataset,

Thanks Stefan,

See also the "developers" version:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3000.0.html

Constructive criticism welcome!

48
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 11, 2020, 12:22:04 PM »
Fucking idiots!

That's one way of putting it BK! If I hadn't been preoccupied with Roger Pielke Jr.'s meltdown I might have tweeted sooner.

As it is the WaPo have gone with a Copernicus tweet that was only a day and a bit late. They could at least have used Bert Wouters' animation, which beat "Snow White" to the punch on the 9th.

P.S. https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1227192922593992704

50
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: February 09, 2020, 03:20:05 PM »
Any and all "likes" and "retweets" welcome:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1226478593884270592

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