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Messages - GoodeWeather

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Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: November 21, 2019, 04:16:47 PM »
I think that by eliminating abortion and sterilization you've eliminated all of the least horrific solutions possible.

An infinite population in a finite space simply isn't possible. China has shown that a one child policy is viable. When will the rest of the world conceded that breeding more people than can be cared for is inhumane, unjust & impractical.

If you attempted it with any other animal species you would properly be arrested.

Sorry gotta do it.   China's One Child policy was not viable for the continued stability of their economy which is why they ended it in 2015.

The most alarming thing about this, is the ratio of men to women now in China.  Roughly 34 MILLION more men than women.  Also with an aging population it is putting incredible stress on the younger generation.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: November 01, 2019, 03:04:33 PM »
The Chukchi Sea still does not want to freeze.

Has anyone figured out where we are now walking on the average annual area in the Arctic?

Chukchi took in a massive amount of heat this summer.  Heat in deeper waters will take more time to freeze.   I am amazed at how long it has lasted so far.  Could go another week before the real freeze takes over.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 02, 2019, 06:44:18 PM »
While Dorian is an intense hurricane, it is not a large hurricane.  Hurricane force winds only spread out 45 miles from its center.  Compare that to Katrina, which made landfall with 125 mph maximum winds, but hurricane force winds extended 120 miles from its center.  This led to widespread damage.  The compactness of this storm would cause damage similar to Andrew, if it made a direct hit.

Spot on.   One of the most impressive things about Dorian is that up until now, it was able to maintain it's most interior structure without going through an EWRC, which has also kept the strongest winds very close to the center.   Dorian is now finishing the end of its first EWRC and you can expect he hurricane force wind field to expand from the center a little more.   I can see this maintaining as a Major hurricane up the coast of Florida while expanding its wind field at the same time with the assistance of the gulf stream.

Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2019
« on: September 02, 2019, 03:13:59 PM »
Has anyone had a look at the 06z 3KNAM run yet!?!   I know it's the NAM and typically does not perform well with tropical systems, but was one of the few models that predicted that mass IR of Dorian from a high end 4 (150mph) to a super cat5 (180+mph).

Anyways,  it has Dorian deepening again once it hits the gulf stream and this time sub 900mb.  Probably won't happen but definitely something to watch for.  SSTs are crazy high in front of Dorian's path.

BTW GFS and Euro also hint at restrengthening once it hits the gulf stream.  Global models are doing horrible job with the initialization.  They keep starting their runs 30mb higher than what the pressure actually is. 

Glaciers / Re: Alaska Glaciers
« on: August 17, 2019, 03:00:50 AM »
Sawyer Glacier 2012 vs 2019 pictures:

It's a horrible comparison and gives deniers more fuel.  You can clearly tell the pictures were taken from a different point of view.  The second picture was clearly taken from further away.  I would also love to know the exact date for each picture, as it appears the second picture was take at a later date in the melting season.

Consequences / Re: AGW consequences where you live
« on: August 14, 2019, 03:29:31 AM »
Northeast warming faster than rest of US, particularly in winter:

As a New Jersey resident I have to call BS on this article.  First off more people live in the sector of the northeast than any other sector in the country, which would include more cities and more of a heat island effect...not really news.  Second their data only constricts to meteorological winter and not astronomical which would include part or match, and anyone living in the northeast will tell you that is to most variable month of the year (March 2016 was the coldest march on record for a lot of tristate areas).

I can not deny that winter is not what it used to be, but I'm unimpressed by the means they support it.  Seems just like stating an obvious fact.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2019 Melt Season
« on: August 13, 2019, 03:46:26 PM »
I thought it was interesting that a different model shows a ~150 GT difference from the other....

Not sure if NSIDC uses total mass or just surface mass, as DMI o ly calculates SMB which could be the difference we are looking at.

Consequences / Re: When and how bad?
« on: August 13, 2019, 06:21:33 AM »

I am talking as a relative % of the population, I think you are talking raw numbers. As a relative % of the population, we are at the worst-ever moment in history right now, IMO.

Remember, before urbanization, most humans WERE self-sufficient in terms of food production. A peasant's life in Medieval Europe was probably better than a factory or IT worker's life today, IMO.

Indoor plumbing is the only argument needed to prove this statement vastly false. 🤣

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 12, 2019, 01:20:28 PM »
There is another separate thread to compare this year to 2012.  There is too much noise in this thread already when comparing 2019 to other years.  People come to this thread to discuss this year and the dynamics that are causing it to melt not analoging it to other years.

« on: August 10, 2019, 12:12:42 AM »
I can't remember such a lot of questions when  joined.

I don't know but my guess is that as the forum becomes more well known, it becomes of more interest to those who wish all sites that accept AGW harm. Perhaps Neven has had to increase the forum's defences.

ps: I would have failed the Lena river question until about a year ago.
pps: Does Neven allow one or two failures before giving an "F" ?

I was just thinking about this earlier.  I definitely would have failed that before this year.  Been lurking in the shadows for many many years.  There is an incredible wealth of knowledge on this forum and I have learned so much over the years thanks to everyone that posts here.

ps.  that question came up for this post lol.

The rest / Re: Leftism is a greater threat than climate change
« on: August 08, 2019, 09:40:58 PM »
So some of you see the alt-right as the big problem......

. How many Jews live in Israƫl ? A couple million. Would they still be alive without the support of the US ?

No one is saying the alt-right is the only problem. If / when Muslim hate groups come to ASIF, I would condemn them just as much.

As a Jew, I understand that Israel is NOT dependent on the US for survival. They have at least 200 nukes and no rich group of mullahs is ready to commit suicide that I'm aware of. No precedent for that.

Religion and race based fanaticism of all stripes is bad news. As a Jew, I can't say that some of my tribe isn't infused with some of that. All religions have extremists and there are no shortage of greedy and power hungry people willing to manipulate people through fear of others.

As a Jew, it would be easy for me to take the tribal stance and accept that Muslims are to be feared. But it wasn't Muslims who created the assembly line of extermination that killed 6 million Jews. It was white Christian supremacists.

In America (where I live), , Muslims are too small in number to be feared. Scared and hate filled white people are the danger.

Yet the US sends them over $3billion in foreign aid.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: August 06, 2019, 01:45:56 AM »
First time poster, been lurking since 2012.  I feel like this season is the time to break the silence. 

I have never seen the ice that is along the CAA and north Greenland in worse condition than any year I have been following the arctic.  We may not hit a record minimum, but this is definitely looking like a year that is preconditioning the pack for a massive loss in the coming years.  My worry is that once the pack is detached from all land, it will be extremely mobile and deteriorate rapidly with the slightly bit of unsettled weather.

Again not happening these year, but she is starting to showmany signs of fatigue.

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