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Messages - PragmaticAntithesis

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: October 24, 2020, 09:53:18 PM »
Today's ice gain (tomorrows posts) will have a century break in JAXA extent.

In any other late October this would be the safest bet ever...

Update: wow, that was easy

2
The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: October 24, 2020, 09:51:20 PM »
I just found blumenkraft on reddit. Fun times were had!

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: October 12, 2020, 08:36:40 AM »
A bit of a short term prediction, but I think we'll see some record low days around the end of next week covering the 2019/2012 crossover.

Horrah, I actually got something right for once!

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: October 07, 2020, 09:18:41 AM »
June JAXA: 3.75-4.25 sqMm. Medium Confidence

June NSIDC: 4-4.5 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July JAXA: 3.5-4 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July NSDIC: 3.75-4.25 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July PIOMAS: 4,250-4,750 km3. Medium Confidence

Go big or go home!

August JAXA: 3.25-3.75 sqMM Very High Confidence

August NSDIC: 3.5-4.0 sqMM High Confidence

August PIOMAS: 3,750-4,250 km3 Very High Confidence

I'll ignore PIOMAS, as their average September being lower than most of the daily values makes no sense.

JAXA: 2+4+10
NSDIC: 2+4+6

Total: 28

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: October 05, 2020, 06:27:55 AM »
A bit of a short term prediction, but I think we'll see some record low days around the end of next week covering the 2019/2012 crossover.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 02, 2020, 08:18:55 PM »
I'm open to suggestions on how best to display this data. I plan on doing the same for all other months too

This pixel values for 35+ look very similar to the pixel values for open water, so you may want to flip the colour scale upside-down.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: September 24, 2020, 03:14:39 AM »
Knowing how the season has started, I think we'll likely see a record low maximum, but not by much.

Somewhere around 13.7±0.3sqMm extent seems like a good ball park estimate for me.

8
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: September 19, 2020, 04:06:04 PM »
Stupid but obvious question: what happens when they run out of Greek letters?

9
Arctic sea ice / 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: September 10, 2020, 04:58:56 PM »
It's that time of year again, almost time for the least exciting but most important part of the ice cycle: freezing season!

I think this year's freezing season is going to be interesting, as the Great Arctic Anti-Cyclone has put a lot of heat in the peripheral waters, particularly on the Siberian side. Might we see a particularly low maximum next year as warm water fails to re-freeze?

Starting this thread before freezing season actually starts, as some people may want to predict things in advance.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: September 02, 2020, 09:49:11 PM »
Going for Very High Confidence on JAXA was a mistake...

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: August 04, 2020, 02:50:51 PM »
June JAXA: 3.75-4.25 sqMm. Medium Confidence

June NSIDC: 4-4.5 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July JAXA: 3.5-4 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July NSDIC: 3.75-4.25 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July PIOMAS: 4,250-4,750 km3. Medium Confidence

Go big or go home!

August JAXA: 3.25-3.75 sqMM Very High Confidence

August NSDIC: 3.5-4.0 sqMM High Confidence

August PIOMAS: 3,750-4,250 km3 Very High Confidence

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Freeform season chatter and light commentary
« on: August 01, 2020, 05:55:50 PM »
I'm going to wait for PIOMAS data to come out before making any minimum predictions. I must check if the recent extent slowdowns are actually caused by ice not melting or if it's dispersion fooling the numbers.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 19, 2020, 02:06:20 PM »
The most recent day where extent did not have a century drop was July 2nd. If these century drops continue for the rest of July, sea ice extent will drop to 5,551,222 square kilometres or lower. The record low for July 31st is currently taken by 2019 at 5,955,851, which is over 400k higher than this extrapolation.

14
The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: July 18, 2020, 12:01:53 AM »
Now for something completely different: my opinion on what Biden's best path to 270 is.

I'm using electoral vote's polling analysis for this. https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/tipping_point.html

Firstly, the dark blue states (plus ME-1). These are states where Biden holds an 11+ point lead. Biden will win these states, even if he underperforms the polls by 10 points (which is extremely unlikely).

Secondly, the likely D states. These are: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan, Florida and Minnesota. Biden needs 5 (any 5) of these to take the White House. Because relying on Florida to go blue is a terrible idea; I think Biden should focus on the other 5, which I have coloured light blue. If I were Biden's campaign team, I would be focusing a very significant amount of time and money on making absolutely certain these 5 states go to Biden.

Thirdly, the states Biden doesn't need to win but probably will anyway, which I have coloured grey. Campaigning in these states (except NE-2 which only has 1 vote) could gave Biden a nice safety net, just in case one of the 5 key states ends up surprising.

Finally, the states I coloured red. These are states where, if Biden wins, he's already so far ahead that the election is in the bag anyway. If Biden's campaign team tries to focus on these areas (and aren't doing so for the purpose of downballot races such as the Senate), I would be facepalming so hard, as it would mean the Democrats have learned nothing from 2016. It's 270 to win, not 400!

If Biden gets the states I've highlighted, not even a 10 point miracle can save Trump.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 11:26:21 PM »
Anyone who knows what the most intensive Arctic cyclone in July is? Have there been any cases below 970 hpa in July?

I've seen them appear in forecasts ; I remember noting once that there were several in a forecast on gfs .. 2017 or 18. They didn't materialize . b.c.

Considering how the previous major cyclones all didn't materialise, is this indicative of a problem with the weather forecasting predicting phantom bomb cyclones? If so, I think we probably shouldn't trust this forecast.

16
I looked at the data and my tables, somewhat stunned. A minimum of 3.5 million km2 with average remaining melt?

<snip>

On average 65.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 61 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.50 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

For a new record low minimum extent, remaining melt needs to be 9.5% above the average.

I'm going with 3.5-4sqMm. I would be genuinely surprised if it went below 3.5, but it looks like above 4 is now wishful thinking.

I am going to be 'genuinely surprised', aren't I?

17
The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: July 14, 2020, 01:28:54 PM »
Taegen Goddard's Political Wire has a consensus electoral map.  Today's posts include
Quote
A New Swing State on the Map
(Texas)
Hillary campaigned in Arizona and Georgia too. Wonder if Biden will make the same mistakes. Not that he would know where he is campaigning anyways...

That's assuming it will be a mistake. Texas has a lot of important down-ballot candidates to secure before 2022 redistricting occurs, which could easily lock in house seats.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 14, 2020, 01:23:04 PM »
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2975.0;attach=275040;image

What is the standard deviation of the last 10 years? Are we outside of this range?

The standard deviation of the 2010's is 162,641 square kilometres assuming I haven't screwed up my calculations. This puts 2020 3.8 standard deviations out from the 2010's average.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 11:09:56 PM »
Fun fact: If my calculations are correct then the current rotation of the central basins sea ice due to the anticyclone carries about 2E13 joules of kinetic energy. This must be eventually converted to heat for the rotation to stop, which is enough to melt 60 000 cubic meters of ice. This might sound significant at first but actually it is just the equivalent of around 10 nanometers of ice thickness across the arctic.

Just goes to show the sheer amount of energy it takes to melt out such a significant portion of the ice volume. Humanity's impact on the climate has been rather severe already!

20
The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: July 10, 2020, 03:23:24 PM »
I've updated my prediction based on more recent polling. I think that, once anger over the GOP's handling of the coronavirus and BLM subsides, Biden will lose ~4 points. I also think the pollsters have got Florida wrong.

I also think Kanye West's run will be barely noticeable. His application is too late to even show up on the ballot on some states! The vast majority of Americans have never heard of him. Of those who do know of him, many will write this off as a joke/PR campaign. Of those who know of him and are taking his run seriously, most will are already locked in as voting for one of the two big parties anyway. This only leaves a tiny portion of the vote that Kanye even has a chance of taking. I think JoJo (the Libertarian candidate) will have a much bigger third party impact, and that could completely screw Trump over!

This map leaves Biden just 1 EC vote off winning (note: Trump would probably win a 269-269 tie because of how the tiebreaker works) meaning he only needs to snag 1 toss up, which I think is quite likely.

Republicans, on the other hand, need to win all 5 toss ups (NH, NC, FL, AZ, NV) just to tie. There's hope, but not much of it.

Note: this all assumes the election will actually go off without a hitch and there's no COVID related turnout suppression.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 02:26:52 PM »
While extent continues to drop, area has actually stalled for the last 4 days. More draining melt ponds?

Well, there are a lot of melt ponds to drain...

22
I'm going with 3.5-4sqMm. I would be genuinely surprised if it went below 3.5, but it looks like above 4 is now wishful thinking.

Also, I'm noticing the poll results are bimodal, with peaks at 3.75-4.25 and 3-3.5. It looks like the forum may be falling into 2 camps, with one expecting an on trend melt season, and the other expecting a 2012 style ice beatdown!

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: July 05, 2020, 10:58:26 PM »
June JAXA: 3.75-4.25 sqMm. Medium Confidence

June NSIDC: 4-4.5 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July JAXA: 3.5-4 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July NSDIC: 3.75-4.25 sqMM. Medium Confidence

July PIOMAS: 4,250-4,750 km3. Medium Confidence

Edit: corrected typo

24
The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: June 26, 2020, 05:23:27 PM »
I'm predicting this map (lots of toss ups, I know). With all the toss ups, there is about an 80% chance of Biden winning, and a 269-269 tie is possible. Trump *must* win Florida or he's toast.

25
The politics / Re: Elections 2020 USA
« on: June 15, 2020, 03:41:26 PM »
I think the polls are showing a temporary bump for Democrats, as there is a huge virus crisis and civil unrest under a GOP administration. As the COVID restrictions break (for better or worse) and the protests subside, I think the GOP will get their lead back.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 15, 2020, 02:26:03 PM »
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  10,093,549 KM2 as at 14-Jun-2020

- Extent loss on this day 49k, 9 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent is  39 k MORE than 2016,
______________________________
Yet another below average extent loss.

Come on 2016, you can do it! Deny 2020 the record days!

27
Interesting: the poll appears to be bimodal. There's only one vote for 3.5-4sqMm so far, despite the four bins surrounding that being the most popular.

Either way, I went for 4-4.5sqMm, as it's one bin higher than my JAXA prediction.

<Edit: I misread the numbers. Oops. -PA>

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: June 03, 2020, 02:16:51 AM »
June JAXA: 3.75-4.25 sqMm. Medium Confidence

June NSIDC: 4-4.5 sqMM. Medium Confidence

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 02, 2020, 03:31:19 PM »
Yet another day of below average extent losses

Is that 7 days in a row now?! Looks like the ice is being rather resilliant. I wonder if this will continue.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 25, 2020, 01:04:10 AM »
Hey Friv, you hear this? Melt ponds appearing almost instantly. I told you it will happen in 2..3 weeks - exactly 3 weeks ago (this post), when you said it'll be in a month. See, things go wild this time, you see what happens with albedo and i bet you know how it goes.

Another accurate prediction! You lot are good at this~

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 24, 2020, 02:50:30 PM »
P.A, do you want the poll to be removed, or activated?

Removed, please.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 23, 2020, 04:58:28 PM »
ps: I'm feeling smug - I wrote the following sentence on the 11th May...
Watch this space for the unfolding of the Great 2020 Mid-May Melting Event ?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg263728.html#msg263728

And this is what happens when the people making the predictions actually know what they're talking about! Good job, Gerontocrat!

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 21, 2020, 05:57:15 PM »
Welcome Butterflyy.
This theory is best discussed elsewhere. Note that its more extreme version (the "Quebec reglaciation") has been promoted all over the forum by a certain user  and is frowned upon by the new moderator.  8)

Anyone know where I can find a thread discussing/debunking this and similar theories? The idea that, in a post-BOE world, the air above land ice will become colder than air over water further north is an interesting one...

34
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: May 19, 2020, 05:05:28 PM »
Minor is unlikely to help very much. It’s the storm surge that will cause most damage, especially at Ganges Delta

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-amphan-to-send-massive-storm-surge-into-eastern-india-and-bangladesh

Yeah, that's bad. Lots of salty seawater all over the crops!

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 17, 2020, 02:24:43 PM »
Of course 3 severe daily drops, a nasty storm brewing, very early albedo shifts and alarmingly early volume drops all happen immediately after I say my prediction was too alarmist! I bloody jinxed it.

Alright, let's see if this counter-jinx works...

AAAHHH THESE CENTURY LOSSES ARE TERRIBLE AND WILL CARRY US ALL THE WAY TO BOE, WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 15, 2020, 02:05:44 AM »
What, no poll?!

I'm new here, and didn't know how to make a poll until now. Next year's thread will have one!
If I remember rightly the polls are setup as follows.....

The first poll(s) is (are) usually set up in late May & called the June Poll, as by then at least one month of solid melt has happened. 2 polls, a poll for NSIDC Sept Average extent , and another for JAXA daily extent minimum.

Then 2 new polls for use in July, and 2 more  for use in August.

More kudos goes to the person with the closest call in the earliest poll.

Nice! JAXA June poll added.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 14, 2020, 11:54:04 PM »
What, no poll?!

I'm new here, and didn't know how to make a poll until now. Next year's thread will have one!

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 13, 2020, 02:47:03 PM »
<nested quotes snipped>

Absolutely nailed what is at stake attm.

Just browsing through Modis looking at when the majority of the Arctic basin went from dry/semi dry surface to wet by year.

With about 80 percent being the magic mark.

The data runs from 2000-present

2000- third week July
2001- third week July
2002- second week July
2003- last week June
2004-first week July
2005- third week of June(had huge sunny skies basin wide in mid June)
2006-July first week
2007- first week June
2008- second week June(mid May Western CAB/Beaufort
2009- third & fourth week June
2010- between first and second week June
2011-second week June
2012- end of first week June
2013- end of June
2014-end of June/first week of July
2015-third to fourth week June
2016-third week June
2017-first week July
2018-fourth week June
2019- end of June early July

2020- ????


Notice not one year has May.

<snip>

There may be no Mays, but 2007, 2010(?) and 2012 got first week of June, which is pretty close! Even if the albedo drop technically breaks into May, it won't be much worse than 2007. Not exactly comforting, but only barely going into uncharted waters is a lot better than being tossed in the ocean!

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: May 12, 2020, 04:44:11 PM »
Some fairly unimpressive losses in the past month have made me think my 4.0sqMm prediction was a bit on the low side...

40
I've noticed that PIOMAS and DMI are in disagreement over volume numbers. The DMI is claiming that 2020 is a record low for volume for May 5th, while PIOMAS claims volume is currently around the 2010's average and 2017 was significantly lower than any other year on this day.

How do the two insitutions differ in the way they measure sea ice volume, and what does a difference this dramatic between the different volume measurements indicate?

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 01, 2020, 02:01:12 AM »
<snip>
Fram export has been very slow.

Just about the first time we've heard that all year!

42
I've noticed a persistent ridge in thickness going North from Svalbard, through the North Pole, and into the ESS. What's causing this ridge? (Or am I actually looking at an ice thickness valley coming from the Fram Strait and going North to the ESS?)

43
Arctic sea ice / 2020 Melting Season Predictions
« on: April 28, 2020, 01:16:15 AM »
IMO, this is a low effort, no value added post. Someone should open a prediction thread for the non-science of guessing future weather events.

Your wish is my command!

Anyway, I still stand by my prediction from the start of melt season that this year's melt will be harsh, but not record-breaking. I'm calling a minimum of around 4.0 square megametres extent.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 16, 2020, 03:26:51 PM »
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia

If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: April 11, 2020, 07:00:43 PM »
Interesting how there's a lot of volume in the periphery seas for this time of year. Might this make the ice more resilient for the rest of early melt season?

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 07, 2020, 09:23:38 PM »
Is there any explanation why Baffin Sea Ice is so much thicker in average this year and 2019 in comparison with the 2000s or 2010s?

IIRC it's because the thin ice is removed. Let's say you have a set of 7 blocks of ice with thickness 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2, 3.1. The average thickness here is 1.1 arbitrary units. Then, you have a nasty melt that takes 1 unit of thickness away from all the blocks. Now you only have 2 blocks (0.2, 2.1) with an average thickness of 1.15, as the other 5 blocks are gone.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 07, 2020, 06:07:58 PM »
Methinks the US still isn't taking this seriously...

Anyway, back to ice discussion. I still think we're overestimating the effects of aerosol cooling on polar regions. Increasing the sun's power slightly won't do much where the sun is barely shining anyway, especially compared to the usual effects of heat trapping. That said, we may get a nasty melt season anyway due to the incredible amount of Fram export and thin ice in and around the Chukchi.

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: April 01, 2020, 09:29:44 PM »
hiyas,

this may be OT and my apologies if it so judged.  But, as a  response regarding some FYI messages that I have received, for clarification, is the statement 'a north wind blows in a southerly direction through the Fram' correct? Likewise, doesn't a south wind blow in a northerly direction ?

I am a native English speaker, but i could be wrong.

td

A North Wind is a wind blowing from the North. Of course, anything going from North is going to the opposite direction of North, AKA South.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 31, 2020, 11:24:58 PM »
Fram export will get another boost this week.

As if it needed one!

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: March 24, 2020, 12:13:54 PM »
... I also don't like all the yellow I'm seeing in this graphic.  That concentration is a lot lower than I'd like.

Perhaps last year's late freeze of the Chukchi made the ice in that area more vulnerable? In January, the thickness there was almost nonexistent, despite extent having recovered. I've attached the DMI's thickness map for January 1st 2020. Look at all that horribly weak purple in the Chukchi that's been blown into the CAB by Pacific winds.

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