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Messages - The Walrus

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1
The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 26, 2021, 08:33:26 PM »
60 Fortune 500 Companies Avoided All Federal Income Tax in 2018 Under New Tax Law
https://itep.org/60-fortune-500-companies-avoided-all-federal-income-tax-in-2018-under-new-tax-law/

An in-depth analysis of Fortune 500 companies’ financial filings finds that at least 60 of the nation’s biggest corporations didn’t pay a dime in federal income taxes in 2018 on a collective $79 billion in profits, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy said today.

If these companies paid the statutory 21 percent federal tax rate, they would owe $16.4 billion in federal income taxes. Instead, they collectively received $4.3 billion in rebates.

http://www.itep.org/notadime

https://itep.org/corporate-tax-avoidance-in-the-first-year-of-the-trump-tax-law/

---------------------------------------
In the US  we have more welfare for the rich then the poor.

Funny how the same people promoting federal tax credits for certain investments are the same people that complain when corporations take them.  Many of these corporations took tax credits for hiring disadvantaged workers or building in designated “enterprise zone.”  Other credits include those for green energy and COVID costs for 2020. 

It would seem fairer to eliminate all these credits, and charge a flat rate.  But then, politicians would not be able to pander to their favorite corporate donors.

2
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: February 25, 2021, 06:33:20 PM »
Re:  the soil that does exist is dead soil

Yes. I have travel extensively in the midwest, and on occasion i walk over to the edge of a field and grab a handful of soil. Not a thing lives in in it, it is dead, dead, dead. Even when the soil is beautiful black, as in parts of Iowa, or indiana, or illinois.

When they spray the fields for potatoes, unprotected humans are not allowed in the fields for three days.

sidd

If the soil is truly in that bad of shape, why are agricultural yields still rising? 

3
The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 24, 2021, 01:34:16 PM »
Really it's not enough for you that over 500,000 have died? You still grudge the meager steps that were actually taken to stem the virus in the US? You might wonder how other countries had much less dead, took much greater steps including longer and stricter lockdowns, and yet hunger did not manifest itself.
The problems in the US are structural, the virus has just exposed them.

Yes, the steps taken were only to protect the rich and powerful.  They were able to work from home and stay connected without loss of income or security.  That was not true of the working poor, many of whom lost their jobs when the country locked down.  The virus was a short-term issue.  The poor are a long-term problem.  The powers that be just ensured that the problem will be around a lot longer.  You seem to be advocating for keeping the poor in their lot.

4
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 24, 2021, 03:47:33 AM »
Not often but occasionally:

The more you read about events in Texas, the more you realise how avoidable the problem was.

Three reports have come to light  in 1989, 2003 and 2011 after previous events where severe cold brought the Texas grid to it's knees.

The findings are the same in all of them, instrumentation was not designed, nor protected from the conditions experienced.

I really hope this time lessons are learnt

https://twitter.com/kidstatic/status/1361914812305985538?s=20

It's Texas. They're not big on larnin' down there.  ;)

It is not just Texas.  In 2014, Atlanta received 2.5” of snow and the city was brought to a standstill, with estimates of a million people stuck on the highways.  The city did not fare much better during the “blizzard” of 2011.  As far as bad timing goes, the ice storm of 2000 struck during the super bowl. 

5
Quote
over 12% of Pennsylvania households were experiencing hunger at the end of 2020.
Pause on this for a moment. The US is a failed country, exposed by the pandemic.

I guess do, if you are referring to the failed policy of lockdowns.

6
The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 23, 2021, 03:16:21 PM »
Quote
over 12% of Pennsylvania households were experiencing hunger at the end of 2020.
This number is huge. In the supposedly richest most powerful country in the world.

(Cross post from the Covid recession thread).

From the report, "To a large extent, the rise in hunger nationally as well as in Pennsylvania is caused by job losses associated with the lockdowns implemented to stem the spread of the Corona virus."

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 22, 2021, 09:40:56 PM »
I evaluated the JAXA data of all freezing seasons from Feb 19 to the individual maximum to find out how often an increase of 0.23 M km² has happened after Feb 19. This is the value needed to be higher than the actual maximum from Feb 16 (13.98 M km²). I grouped these evaluations into the different decades. The evaluation has three outcomes:
A - an increase higher than 0.24 M km² has happened in x years (Pass), which means the maximum has not been reached
B - an increase of 0.23 ± 0.01 M km² has happened in y years (Intermediate), which means the maximum may have been reached, but maybe not
C - an increase of less than 0.22 M km² has happened in z years (Fail), which means the maximum has already been reached and we can start the melting season thread.

                     A       B      C
1979-1989:    5       2      4
1990-1999:    1       0      9
2000-2009:    5       1      4
2010-2020:    8       0      3
sum:             19      3     20

Summary: If we assume that the current situation of the ice and its distribution is more like the 2010-2020 years than e.g. the 1990s then it is more likely than not that the maximum of 2021 has not been reached yet.

Update for Feb 21, 2021. New threshhold value is 0.22 M km². In-between evaluation is valid for 0.21-0.23 M km²

                     A       B       C
1979-1989:    3       0       8
1990-1999:    1       0       9
2000-2009:    4       0       6
2010-2020:    7       1       3
sum:            15       1     26

Nice Stephan.  For NSIDC, the recent decrease brought 2021 in line with the average extent over the past decade (within 0.002 M km2).  The average increase to maximum in the NSIDC data is 0.347, so I suspect that the 2021 maximum has not yet occurred in their dataset.  Incidentally, sea ice extent in the NSIDC only dropped 0.11 M.

8
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: February 22, 2021, 03:39:45 PM »
I am not surprised that people entrenched in dogmas at the ends of the political spectrum "have a problem processing evidence at a perceptual level."  People who are conservative are more resisted to change, and it makes sense that they would "treat every stimuli they encounter with caution."  Seems like the moderates do have an advantage. 

9
The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 19, 2021, 04:55:16 PM »
Rodius,

First, left me say that I am not well acquainted with the circumstances in Australia and New Zealand, so I will accept your claims there.  I can however comment intelligently about your statements about the U.S.  The claim that the issue is solely white vs non-white ignores everything else about the socio-economic system in this country.  Your claim that it is the whites who are blind to the problem leads me to question your own eyesight.  Yes, systematic racism was a very big deal in the past.  Yes, whites benefitted just by being white.  To claim that the situation is unchanged, leads me to believe that you are living in the past and have not seen any of the progress made since the civil rights era.  I am not saying everything is equal; it may never be.  However, it has improved significantly since last century. 

https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2016/06/27/1-demographic-trends-and-economic-well-being/

I am not saying that there is not room for improvement - there is still plenty.  However, the racial issue has been eclipsed by a socio-economic one.  The wealthy are the haves, while the poor are the have nots.  Skin color (white, black, brown, red, yellow, etc.) has less to do with that than in the past.  Today, most of the advantage granted the white population stems from heritage.  Their parents had more wealth and opportunity, which was passed down.  The black/white issue is much more easily resolved than the wealth issue.  That is the reason that I claim that focusing on the race issue, while ignoring the wealth issue, cannot solve the problem.  Even if the racial issue disappeared entirely, the wealth gap would persist, and little would have changed.

10
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 18, 2021, 07:46:02 PM »
Quote
But no relief for Canada.
It looks like it's pleasant in Nova Scotia.  (It was part of "Canada" when I visited as a kid, anyway.)

A temporary situation.  The current winter storm is expected to exit the continent right over top of them, bringing cold and snow.

11
The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 18, 2021, 02:53:25 PM »
I think you started framing the problem accurately, but then diverged into including other spurious issues.  Your initial statement was spot on:

"Those who have the most tend to want to keep things the same, keep things polite, and ignore those who don't have what they have."

Those "haves" actively work to keep what they have and put up road blocks to keep out the "have nots."  No problem with that part of your claim.  However, then you wavered into a political agenda. 

It starts with the schools.  Those that have good schools, do not want to seem them compromised.  Even those who claim to want to improve schools for the less advantage have not been very helpful.  They even fight some of the attempts of improvement, kowtowing to local politics and ideologies.  "No Child Left Behind" only managed to bring down those districts that needed the most help.  Many point the finger at Big Business and wealthy businessmen, but this is not the problem.  Most businesses recognize your "brilliant" people and want them on their team.  Those businesses that are truly "colorblind" have been the more successful.  That is your "lost potential."  Politicians, on the other hand, cannot see this.  They focus on their particular problem and throw money at it, but refuse to implement anything that would truly alleviate the problem.  They also refuse to accept any information that the situations has improved.  If the problem goes away, they lose their agenda and their voters.  As long as they can frame the problem applicably and find an appropriate scapegoat (the "other" guy), they maintain their control. 

You are fighting last century's problems, like the generals always fighting the previous war.  Yes, I know they are not completely alleviated, and probably never will (at least not in this world).  However, if you pull focus away from the real issue(s), you join those who you claim to be are part of the problem.

12
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 18, 2021, 03:31:39 AM »
The current U.S. snow cover is the highest ever mapped, according to NOAA.  However, the database only tracks to 2003.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2021-02-17-snow-cover-united-states-most-widespread-since-2003

13
The politics / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: February 16, 2021, 10:13:38 PM »
It’s not a problem of Left or Right. it’s a problem of Up and Down

Get ready for another round of inflation.

Countries with high minimum wages don't have any more or less problems with inflation. This is yet another myth that is easy to dispense with.

That is irrelevant to the current conversation, and just misinformation to confuse the reader.

14
The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 16, 2021, 09:01:08 PM »
my brother too .. I remember early efforts being made to train him otherwise . It didn't make him gauche enough or sinister enough to mistake or believe Fox a news outlet that deals in facts .

While Tucker Carlson definitely presents his story with a right-wing slant, the facts presented appear to be solid. 

The five deaths appear to have happened as stated; Roseanne Boyland was crushed by the mob, Kevin Greeson did die of a heart attack, Benjamin Phillips did die from a stroke, Ashli Babbitt was shot by an unnamed Capitol Hill lieutenant, and the cause of death of Brian Sicknick is still in question (although the fire extinguisher blunt trauma theory appears to have been debunked).  The quotes and references are real also; Chuck Schumer did call it a day that "will live in infamy,"  CNN's Anderson Cooper did compare the Capitol riot to the Rwandan genocide, AOC did state that she had a "very close encountered, where I thought I was going to die," and "there were white supremist members of Congress who I know would disclose my location," Marwayen Mullin did state that the officer that shot Babbitt did not have a choice, and David Cicilline did say that "the president literally incited an armed attack."  Carlson seems to take issue with the "armed" verbiage, claiming that no one has been shown to have brandished a weapon.  This is largely immaterial, because even if true, mobs do not need weapons to be violent. 

Of course these facts are not the gist of the issue.  Even if no one died or was injured, the issue of a president inciting a riot is still relevant and a grievous offense. 

15
Lockdowns Have Devastated the Global Poor
https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-have-devastated-the-global-poor/
Quote
In particular, developing countries likely do not have the same support structures be it private or public as countries like the United States do. They cannot simply print trillions of dollars to finance quantitative easing policies to prop up the stock market or send stimulus checks to ailing citizens. They also likely lack the private safety nets created by nonprofits and the general flexibility of an advanced business sector. One can only imagine the damage economic depression would bring upon such communities.

Exactly!  The lockdowns were engineered by the wealthy to maintain their own lifestyle.  They had little regard for the poor, who could operate similarly.  They were able to convince enough people that it was for the greater good, that they went along.  When all is said and done, the rich will be richer and the poor will be poorer.  Nicely done.

16
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: February 14, 2021, 02:28:17 PM »
With yesterday’s acquittal, I think we can officially close this chapter in America and this thread in asif.

17
The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 14, 2021, 02:26:52 PM »
There is much truth in saying the the most educated have no solidarity with the working class.  Those sitting in their ivory towers, live in relative luxury by comparison.  They dictate to others what they believe is best for society, which is often what is best for people like them.  They claim to know what is best for the workers, when they have not experienced a hard days work in their lifetime.  They try to teach our young adults similarly, so that we have a whole generation of college graduates that believe similarly.  Education is a key component in raising people out of poverty.  They do not necessarily need a higher education (although it helps greatly in today’s economy), but they should at least receive an adequate one to allow them to gain meaningful employment.  In many of the poor areas, public education has failed them.  That is why the parents in these districts that do care are pushing for more charter schools in their area.  Unfortunately, many cannot send their children there, and must continue in their own poor districts.  All while those sitting in comfortable chairs of higher learning in the realms of intellectual isolation blame others for their plight.

18
The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 13, 2021, 01:54:52 PM »
I would have to agree with lefty.  Recently, pre-COVID, real income was increasing for the majority (bigger piece of the pie) and poverty was falling.  Yes, the rich did comparatively better, but most others did well also.

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html

The rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer is just a political sound bite, and not based on reality.

19
Quote
First, homelessness has very little to do with the housing market, either rental or ownership.  Those that are homeless cannot afford a home at any price.
Seriously? Have you not heard of people who couldn't keep up with their rent payments because they were too high, and were evicted?

Yes, I have heard of them, and some become homeless.  But that is not the major cause of homelessness.  The leading causes are substances abuse and job loss.  For women, domestic violence is an additional cause.  The following lists the factors contributing to homelessness.   Eviction makes up only 10% of overall homelessness.

https://homelessresourcenetwork.org/?page_id=1086

Prior to covid, homelessness rates had been falling for a decade.

https://endhomelessness.org/homelessness-in-america/homelessness-statistics/state-of-homelessness-2020/

20
The politics / Re: The Collapse Of America
« on: February 12, 2021, 03:12:55 PM »
Re: Context of Life Expectancy
How much of that is because the US makes Herculean efforts to save inviable babies who die a few days after birth, lowering life expectancy, while other countries just let them die and do not count them? Or is that "fake news"?

Not fake news.  It definitely drags down the overall life expectancy. 

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: February 11, 2021, 08:21:13 PM »
Risk of Death From COVID-19 3.5 Times Higher than Flu


That is all?  I thought it was worse than that.

22

I am fairly sure that if all investors were out of the housing market, house prices would absolutely be affordable for everyone.... I mean, homelessness would disappear, people wouldn't have unstable housing (I was forced to move three times in three years because the owner wanted to sell, it is expensive to move house every year and the landlord doesn't care about that at all.) and people could turn a landlords asset into a true home where gardening, pets and decorating would be possible without the rather unpleasant task of asking permission for these things.


I think this an overly-optimistic view of the situation.  First, homelessness has very little to do with the housing market, either rental or ownership.  Those that are homeless cannot afford a home at any price.  Second, housing becomes unstable when friction exists between the renter and landlord.  Most landlords own the property much longer than the renters live there.  Most moves are renter-driven.  Some situations exists whereby the landlord is truly scum and refuses to take care of even the most basic needs of the renter.  These are the minority cases (at least in the U.S.), and in most cases, the landlord is attentive to the needs of the renters.  The landlord needs the renter more than the renter needs a particular dwelling.  Lastly, to claim that housing prices would be affordable to everyone is utmost fantasy.  We do not live in such utopia, and unlikely every will.  Someone much wiser than I once said that "there will be poor always."  These poor will not be able to afford home ownership under any condition. 

23
Concerning struggling landlords..... I am finding it difficult to feel sorry for them.

Housing is an investment that can go up or down, just like all investments can and do.
They have made money off the backs of those who pay the rent.
They get tax breaks and incentives (usually, it depends on country and State but I suspect this is a common thing worldwide) for owning investment properties.

If they are struggling with their investments, they can always sell them and cut their loses while licking their wounds just like the rest of us.

In the US I can see this situation of rental property sales happening so much in the coming months that house prices will fall, which will potentially allow people who couldn't afford a house to buy one to call home rather than an investor sweeping in and turning housing into a money making machine... which I personally believe is unethical when people are homeless and when they are being evicted because the owner is sad about his investment..... the owner cares more about the money than the people..... which is wrong.

Most people rent, because they cannot afford to buy a house.  The sale of their rental property would not benefit them in this manner.  Contrarily it could harm them, as the sale may force them to vacate the premises.  Federal covid laws have given them protection against eviction for non-payment, but not for the sale of the property.  Depending on the lease agreement, the renters may be s.o.l.  Be careful what you wish for.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: February 10, 2021, 02:58:34 PM »
HYCOM is showing that ice movement as well, but I don't see it going down to Fram. Instead it's being pressed against the SZ islands and the western Laptev coast. And the same thing is going on in the ESS. The ice is piling up there as well.

Last year the ice spun the other way, which left us with an early open Laptev and ESS. So if the ice doesn't make the same reverse spin, the Laptev and ESS could stay frozen for a lot longer this coming melting season because of a big pile up of ice.

Which is a good thing I presume?

I believe so.

25
Concerning struggling landlords..... I am finding it difficult to feel sorry for them.

Housing is an investment that can go up or down, just like all investments can and do.
They have made money off the backs of those who pay the rent.
They get tax breaks and incentives (usually, it depends on country and State but I suspect this is a common thing worldwide) for owning investment properties.

If they are struggling with their investments, they can always sell them and cut their loses while licking their wounds just like the rest of us.

In the US I can see this situation of rental property sales happening so much in the coming months that house prices will fall, which will potentially allow people who couldn't afford a house to buy one to call home rather than an investor sweeping in and turning housing into a money making machine... which I personally believe is unethical when people are homeless and when they are being evicted because the owner is sad about his investment..... the owner cares more about the money than the people..... which is wrong.

I disagree.  Housing prices have skyrocketing as work remotely (from home) has increased their desirability.  People are less able to afford a home than before covid.  More renters in the U.S. are in apartments, rather than homes, by about 2:1.  Nothing sad about it, as it is often better than apartment rentals.

26
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: February 09, 2021, 07:51:42 PM »

Might be shocking for some, but faith can't be over science and facts. It can have an added value, give a sense for example to life, but faith shouldn't lie on reality, climate change, election results...  reality has to inspire faith, but not the opposite. Ok God created Adam and Eva, but it is science that explains how, and if we have reached now the age of limits, faith has to acknowledge it.
There is no limit to God, but there are many limits on earth. These are two different things, you can't compare, we won't get a new one once it is broken.

Faith and reality are not opposites.  They are complements.  Those that profess to have one without the other are deficient.  Science and religion are similar in their aim; to seek the truth.  Science does it through the natural world, religion through the spiritual (we can add philosophy through the intellectual also).  The goals is the same, just the paths are different.  When one tries to apply one branch to the path of another, difficulties arise as the application is outside the bounds of the original path. 

27
The politics / Re: The Alt Right
« on: February 09, 2021, 03:10:15 AM »
I am certainly not alt-Right.
But am I Right or Left?
I am "Right" on right-to-life.
I am "Left" on environmentalism
I am "Right" on transgenderism.
I am "Left" on immigration.
I am "Right" on same sex marriages.
I am "Left" on racial equality and helping minorities get ahead.
When a pollster calls and asks if I am Conservative or Liberal, I keep saying "Catholic". It drives them nuts.
I do not agree with either political party.

I share many of your beliefs, am catholic also, and support neither party.  There are universal truths, not that I can say with any confidence that I know what they are.  But I feel compelled to continue to search for them, and I do so from both a scientific and spiritual direction.  I find that those on either end of the political spectrum seem to think that they know these truths, but on closer inspection, they seem to be deluding themselves.  The same appears to be applicable to some posters here.

28
Science / Re: Global Warming Would Stop Quickly After Emissions Go To Zero
« on: February 08, 2021, 01:03:55 AM »
Emissions cause global warming. So if we stop emissions, will we end up with a new ice age ? Little by little the oceans will lose all their heat.
CO2eq will have to go down first. This will probably take a whole Ice Age Cycle to occur.

The CO2eq would start falling immediately.  There is scant evidence  that it would propel us into another ice age, but temperatures would begin to fall concurrently.

29
I have no doubts that people in their mid 80s have more trouble finding a job, than younger prospects. 

30
Consequences / Re: Origins of COVID-19
« on: February 05, 2021, 04:06:03 PM »
Quote
Why not with viruses?

Because if standard CDC procedures were followed back in early 2020, none of this would've happened. SARS-CoV-2 would've been a very weak weapon if it wasn't for the decisions made by US leadership early 2020.

So a good AI made excellent choices, predicting the sabotage and predicting that so many other countries would follow the naked king. Or the sabotage was intentional.  I don't know.

Without the sabotage performed by American leadership, SARS-CoV-2 would've gone the way of SARS 1.

Then again, when the next pandemic happens in a few years, I'll probably have a theory perfectly suited for the moment.

As far as I am concerned, even if it is man-made, it's made by nature. We are not all that we think we are.

What about all the other countries?  Do you believe that they just followed suit?  The pandemic was global, with some countries affected worse than the U.S.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: February 02, 2021, 01:59:44 AM »
Actually that is just a lot of denialism veiled in lots of words.

Whatever we choose to call, I think we can agree that recent years (timeframe is somewhat dependent on the dataset chosen) have differed from the immediately preceding ones in that the rate of decline as diminished.

This is a longwinded way of saying hey i see a hiatus.

Behind the statistics there is also a changing physical world. The arctic now is quite unlike the arctic 10 years ago.

The key metric is volume and ice grows from ice. Prolonged open water is what will allow mixing up heat from below at some point. You can go by spreadsheets or think about the physical processes going on.

I see now.  You either do not understand or do not wish to understand.  Hence, you call it denialism and hiatus.  There is no hiatus.  Hiatus is temporary.  The arctic ice is not. 

You contradict yourself in your last paragraph.  If open water is the so important, then the two-dimension metric is the key, as it is the better measure of open water.  That is the physical process occurring.  Volume is only important in how it may affect the extent of open water.

Yes, it is different today than ten years.  Just as it was different then from ten years prior.  During that period, conditions were ripe for a large decline in sea ice.  Now that regime is finished.  Many scientists and posters here recognize that.  There is no need to cling to antiquated theories.

<I am getting tired of reading the same arguments. "Now that regime is finished", you would do well to use less certainty in your terminology, else I will start editing/removing. Or you could simply let the thread breathe little until new information comes in. O>

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: February 01, 2021, 06:52:19 PM »
No one is arguing that the system has been unchanged for 40 years.  Every piece of data points to declining sea ice.  The question is whether Tamino’s graph of two relatively stable system with a sharp intermediate decline is supported.  Your data suggests that it is.  What he did is not cherry picking.  Rather, he is showing that the data supports a two-tiered system better than a straight line decline.  Basic statistics.  Whether this holds in the future is uncertain (due to the relatively short time frame), but denying the trend exists in the data is poor science.
     I did not interpret your earlier post to say that the system has been unchanged for 40 years.  What I did hear you saying is that current evidence indicates that for now at least the ASI appears to be in a period of equilibrium.

     My point in repeating oren's data (not mine, I just updated the re-post of oren's chart to give proper attribution) was to show that the recent number of record low days does NOT support the idea of a system in even a temporary state of equilibrium.  Oren just made that same point in a post today.

     I think you are misinterpreting the great Tamino (long may he live).  He did not say that the slower rate of decline in annual ASI minima after a period of accelerated decline indicated a new stable state.

     I agree with you that "Whether this holds in the future is uncertain (due to the relatively short time frame),".  I disagree with your inaccurate representation of what I said, or that what I said was an example "poor science".  (I also do not appreciate the personal attack, but I'm not interested in one of those tedious ASIF dogfights, so let's stick to the data and interpretations and leave personal attributes out of it). 

     If you meant that I was denying the appearance of a new trend of stability since the end of the 2003-2007 acceleration, you are correct.  I deny that the data since 2007 indicate a period of stability in the ASI.  And so did Tamino.  In fact, that was the whole point of his analysis at https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/10/16/arctic-sea-ice-more-than-just-the-minimum/

    Tamino (in October 2018):
   "We have data for each day over nearly 40 years, we have annual averages for 39 years, and both yearly maxima and minima for 40 years. But for some reason, some people (as in, most climate deniers) only want to talk about 12 minima. Why do you think that is?"

    "Since 2000, the situation didn’t get better.  It got worse.  Yet climate deniers only like to talk about the minimum values since 2007, and they love to declare a “recovery!” "

    "There’s definitely no improvement since 2000."

     "Here are the yearly average values:
   (Tamino chart shown below)
     "Again, no improvement, no recovery. The two lowest values are in the last two years, the three lowest values in the last three years. It’s not better than it would have been if it had followed the pre-existing trend; it’s worse."

      I wish I could agree with you the ASI data suggests a possible stabilization.  But that isn't how it looks to me.  And it didn't look that way to Tamino in October 2018.  And oren's histogram of low record days per year does not show evidence of stabilization. 

      My interpretation of oren's chart is that the number of new record low Extent values is higher in 2016-2020 than in 2004-2015.  And that the rate of decline (as measured categorically by the number of days with new record and near-record lows) has been fairly stable since 2016.  Saying that the rate of new record lows being acquired is stable is not the same as saying that the ASI is in a state of stable equilibrium.

First off, let me apologize for what was taken as a "personal attack."  It was not intended as such.  Sorry.

Secondly, it appears that such terms as "stable" and "equilibrium" have drawn the ire of some posters here.  I never said that it was in a state of equilibrium, rather that perhaps we are approaching such a state.  Crandles plots do indicate that is occurring, although neither of us are convinced of that.  Perhaps simply a new "system" or "regime" would suffice.  Whatever we choose to call, I think we can agree that recent years (timeframe is somewhat dependent on the dataset chosen) have differed from the immediately preceding ones in that the rate of decline as diminished. 

I will make one last statement concerning oren's graph in an attempt to illustrated my point.  The graph of daily new lows supports either a system in decline or a system in equilibrium [after a steady decline].  Any year prior to the last year of decline is much less likely to reach as many daily new lows, simply due to the declining nature of the system.  That is precisely why the last five years have more new lows than the preceding years.  Additionally, the data would support a system in decline better if the highest number of daily new lows was in the most recent year (2020) and not the earliest year (2016).  The data supports either, but as I mentioned previously, the timeframe is too short to make any definitive claims (to which you agreed). 

I have never stated that the situation has "improved."  Arctic sea ice is not increasing.  However, the situation is not as dire as it was a few years ago.  Looking at gerontocrat's data over on the sea ice threads, both area and extent were only 10th lowest at the end of January, and higher than the average over the past decade.  Of course it is lower than the preceding decade, but that was the decade of largest decline.  Perhaps you prefer the term "decelerating."  All of this is just an exercise in semantics.  Regardless, it took three decades of rapid sea ice loss for the minimum extent to decline from 7 M sq. km to 4.  The current rate of decline is less than that, so I suspect that the time required to decline a similar 3 M sq km (the threshold definition for ice-free) would be longer. 

All the graphs of arctic sea ice point to a period of relative stability (or flatness) following by accelerated ice sea, and now a deceleration in that loss.  The data supports, and I agree, that the ice loss is not a linear function.  Gerontocrat's most recent graphs point that out.  His volume graph (and extent and area are not much different) shows that the first years fall far below the linear trend.  For the ensuing 20 years, all but one year falls above the trend line.  This is indicative of a system with accelerating losses.  The inflection point appears to be around 2007, as the next period shows eight years without a single point above the trend line.  The last eight years are fairly evenly distributed.  This again supports a Tamino-line two-tiered system of losses.


33
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 31, 2021, 01:34:04 PM »
It really surprises me that Trumps support has not evaporated faster than this. Especially after he publicly turned on his "special people" who rioted in support of him. On the other hand I guess it has only been ten days since he left office. In some ways it feels like it has been years since the election.

It will take time.  Remember, his supporters have backed him for the past five years.  That kind of support does not evaporate overnight.  Those that supported him marginally are gone, but what fraction of the electorate were they?

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: January 30, 2021, 07:12:40 PM »


      If the system was truly stable, i.e. not changing, then with 40 years of data, for each of those 40 years for each category there would be a random chance of 365/40 = ~9 days in that category.  That is not what we see at all.  Early years have no days with recods lows, and far greater than 9 days in each category for the more recent years.

      If that is too mathematical, here is simpler evidence.  Look at the Wipneus annual minimum PIOMAS volume graph or the monthly average volume graphs. 
Yes, you can cherry pick the most recent few years to see a flat trend.  But in context with the other years the arbitrariness of selecting those years is obvious.

No one is arguing that the system has been unchanged for 40 years.  Every piece of data points to declining sea ice.  The question is whether Tamino’s graph of two relatively stable system with a sharp intermediate decline is supported.  Your data suggests that it is.  What he did is not cherry picking.  Rather, he is showing that the data supports a two-tiered system better than a straight line decline.  Basic statistics.  Whether this holds in the future is uncertain (due to the relatively short time frame), but denying the trend exists in the data is poor science.

35
The politics / Re: The Trump Presidency
« on: January 30, 2021, 05:07:27 PM »
By the looks of it Trump is likely to remain President of the Republican Party.
The enemies of democracy within that party are in the ascendant.


The GOP has to deal with the aftermath of the election.  Two competing faction (pro- and anti- Trump) are dividing the party.  Eventually, Trump will go away.  The question is whether it will be sooner (before the 2022 midterms) or later (after the 2024 election).

https://www.npr.org/2021/01/16/957593493/the-republican-party-after-trump

36
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: January 30, 2021, 01:43:18 PM »
Covid: The devastating toll of the pandemic on children

...

'Closing schools closes lives'
The closure of schools is, of course, damaging to children's education. But schools are not just a place for learning. They are places where kids socialise, develop emotionally and, for some, a refuge from troubled family life.

Prof Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, perhaps put it most clearly when he told MPs on the Education Select Committee earlier this month: "When we close schools we close their lives."

He says the pandemic has caused a range of harms to children across the board from being isolated and lonely to suffering from sleep problems and reduced physical activity.

But it's not just the closure of schools. The stress the pandemic has put on families, with rising levels of unemployment and financial insecurity combined with the stay-at-home orders, has put strain on households up and down the land.

The NSPCC says the amount of counselling for loneliness provided by its Childline service has risen by 10% since the pandemic started. Neil Homer, who has been volunteering for the service since 2009, has never known anything like it. "It's had a devastating impact," he says.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55863841

Just another example of the cure being worse than the cause.  Children are the lowest at risk demographic.  Schools should be opened to foster their development.  Of course the rich don’t care, yet have all hired tutors to educate their own.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: January 29, 2021, 10:46:17 PM »
You can not just use extent or volume or area, you must check how they dance together.

If you look at those long term Arctic ice movies you see a sort of skeleton and all the ice goes towards Greenland. As volume declines and most of it is near Greenland anyway we might run out of  ice in the CAB/Siberia CAB/Atlantic area early which would open up the areas for mixing up bottom heat. Mix up enough and you can make it through the winter.

I am convinced that this is the mechanism which explains the quick (within a decade) climate flips in the HCO so we will see something similar happen but with more heat buried below and much more heat from the rest of the system. I think the bet is rather safe.

Just aside

And as the ice concentrates near the Greenland coast (and CAA), the volume may not change considerably, but extent would continue declining.  Extent would become the more critical factor, leading to more open water in the central basin.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: January 29, 2021, 08:38:15 PM »
Record low maximum and record low minimum are not the only records there are. This year Arctic sea ice extent was lowest on record in July for a very long stretch and by a huge margin, though I don't have that chart readily available. I can supply a chart of daily records for total volume (PIOMAS). 2020 was lowest on record for 25 days, and 2nd lowest for 86 more days. In a stable system this would not be happening. The 2012 Sept low outlier serves as the Monster El Nino of Arctic sea ice, enabling all sorts of false hiatuses to be bandied about.

Note: no year before 2011 holds any daily record low, even 4th lowest.

Since the ice was in a dramatic decline, no year before 2011 would be expected to hold any daily new lows.  2017 set the most new lows, by far, and was double any other year for the top two slots.  Hence the dramatic drops in 2012 and 2017 precluded any prior years from reaching the top four spots. 

In a stable system, the distribution of new lows would be evenly distributed throughout the number of data points.  Over the past five years, that is roughly the case, with 2017 and 2018 being the high and low years (for records).  Last year was below average for new records lows, but rather average in the other top spots.  Which is what would be expected in a stable system.  If the system has truly entered a new stable environment, then 2021 would behave similarly, with slightly fewer records due to a sixth year added to the system data points.

39
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 29, 2021, 05:32:03 PM »
Zufall,

Fracking for optimal geothermal outputs may be what is on his mind...
Or maybe Biden's mind is on the 2022 mid-term elections? Remember the Democrat results down-ballot did not live up to the hype in November. Republicans could easily get the House back. Lose the House and his presidency will only have one year max to make a big difference.

I suspect you are correct here.  Move too far left, and he risks losing enough voters to swing control.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: January 29, 2021, 03:24:07 PM »
Quote
It is entirely possible that we just transitioned into a new equilibrium.
Then pray tell how come both volume and extent records continue to be broken every year, for long stretches of time? That it doesn't happen in September, yet, does not mean the system is stable.

I do not have the data readily available for volume, but I do for extent.  Records are not continuing to be broken.  A new record low extent maximum was last set in 2017.  In fact, the 2020 maximum was higher than the 21st century average maximum.  A new record low minimum was last set in 2012.  The average annual average extent hit a new record low in 2016. 

Perhaps it is not a new equilibrium, but approaching a new one. Melting has decreased during all seasons since the high melts centered around 2005.

Maybe someone else has updated volume data (compared to the Tamino graph).

41
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 29, 2021, 01:59:45 AM »
Gerontocrat,

Fossil-free residential heating may also be achieved before 2030 through the use of larger industry-size heat pumps in central district heating systems. Denmark has lateley (2020) seen a tripling of - primarily baseload - heat pump capacity ( see https://planenergi.dk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Oversigt-over-store-varmepumper-dec-2020-Engelsk.pdf )
I didn't know this was possible. Heat pump have the problem that in order to achieve a high efficiency, the temperature difference between the cold and the warm side should be limited as much as possible.
In the context of district heating, in order to limit the quantity of fluid (I guess water everywhere on earth) that has to move between the producer and the user, temperature difference is maximized.

So this only seems interesting in the context of very cheap heat, for example coming from a computer room.

I still dream of a local heat exchange network. It would have a temperature around 20°C, and buildings would be able to connect themselves in order to take heat out or put heat in, depending if they need cold for deep-freezers or heat for buildings. The issue is that such a network can't provide any guarantee, it would mainly help during the spring and the fall.

Conventional heat pumps start to lose efficiency below 5C (40F), and at -10C cannot heat a home to the desired temperature (20C).

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: January 29, 2021, 12:18:35 AM »
Quote
>more and more open water in summer
>atmosphere over cracked up ice ... some day we are going to get a steady drizzle

What make you think these are not gradual processes slowly encroaching further into the Arctic applying throughout the period of record and into the future, and instead are going to pick up in importance in some future period to cause a noticeable acceleration in ice loss?

One is physics.

Open water. If a large stretch of water opens up earlier in the year it will soak up more heat during the summer which will make it harder to freeze when next winter comes. Then there is also a chance of storms mixing up heat from below which increases with the time we have open water during summer.

This is an accelerating process because it further hinders the overall growth of ice and in the HCO it it is the most plausible mechanism for the quick climate flips.

We can also turn the argument around.

Why would you expect this current system to be stable? If we just went through an event which flushed out the big ice then why on earth would that same process fail to flush out much thinner ice in the long term?

For one, the current system has existed longer than the period of rapid melting. 

With regards to physics, the current system has more poleward ice than the preceding system.  The amount of melt may be approaching a similar amount of freeze during the winter.  It is entirely possible that we just transitioned into a new equilibrium.

43
The politics / Re: Economic Inequality
« on: January 28, 2021, 09:28:15 PM »
It’s not a problem of Left or Right. it’s a problem of Up and Down

Get ready for another round of inflation.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: January 28, 2021, 08:19:01 PM »
Quote
Why doesn't it encroach further and further; Why does it slow down?

Basically when the thick MYI is down to a new much lower minimal level the period of rapid loss is over.

Thermodynamic growth of ice in winter. The thicker the ice the more insulation there is so heat is lost only slowly. Less heat loss=less ice formation. So there is a limit of around 2m of ice through thermodynamics (compression, slabbing and ridging obviously make some thicker). Whereas with very little ice thickness then the ice grows rapidly over winter.

Consequently when and where there is thick MYI losing its thickness down to 2m in summer, this ice is gone and it doesn't grow back. If instead we have 1.5m FYI then this all melts out but it  regrows back quickly in winter. This means much less net change from one year to the next.

But it is important to remember that this is only a temporary situation. We have more and more open water in summer, more mobile ice. This over time interferes with the buildup of thick ice.

Early open waters can lead to mixing up heat and i suspect that this process can provoke areas with year round open waters.

And of course the very atmosphere over the now cracked up ice is changing from Arctic desert to some state with more water vapour year around so some day we are going to get a steady drizzle over ice.

The statistics are just an abstraction of a whole bunch of underlying physical processes.

Why do you believe that the current situation is only temporary?  The recent trend from Tamino is longer lived that the steep drop.  The statistics favor the most recent trend.

46
Economic changes brought by the pandemic are very likely to lead to a market meltdown and the next recession.  A real estate bubble caused the 2008 crash.
I wonder if the fact that the market continued to grow while GDP wend down isn't enough for a potential meltdown, or a restart of inflation. Oil prices are going up in a context of low demand, I wonder what will happen if air travel would restart normally.

While on the whole, GDP declined in 2020, it has risen in the past two quarters (6% in the 4th quarter).  The last two quarters have recouped much of the decline after the first two quarters, and GDP could finish 2021 at a new high.  So the annual decrease is in line with drops during an average recession.

https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-4th-quarter-and-year-2020-advance-estimate

Inflation is a real concern.  The vast government spending is likely to trigger a rise in inflation.  The market is typically a bell weather for future economic changes.  People changed their work and spending habits during the lockdown.  The market took time to adjust.  The fact that the market grew bodes well for the economy in 2021.

47
Consequences / Re: Origins of COVID-19
« on: January 27, 2021, 12:06:13 AM »
Are you saying that this report is bogus?

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/wuhan-lab-researchers-admit-being-bitten-by-coronavirus-infected-bats-report/article33606952.ece#

No but what happens in caves is not what happens in labs.

But if the researchers who work in the labs were bitten by covid-infected bats in the caves ...

49
Consequences / Re: Origins of COVID-19
« on: January 26, 2021, 03:04:37 PM »
WHO advisor: COVID-19 pandemic likely started via lab leak

https://torontosun.com/news/world/who-advisor-covid-19-pandemic-started-via-a-lab-leak

Quote
The Kansas City-born, New York-based Metzl, who served as Deputy Staff Director of the Foreign Relations Committee under then Senator Joe Biden (2001-2003) and before that on the National Security Council (1997-99) and the State Department (1999-01) under President Bill Clinton), theorizes it was most likely an accidental lab leak in Wuhan.

While it is still plausible it is a lab leak, the one thing that sticks in my head comes from an article written by a viral expert.... I am still looking for it but buggered if I can find it.

Anyway, this expert said that the reason he doesn't think it is lab-made is the skills required are beyond what we can do.
He compared it to a surgeon doing surgery with a machete rather than a scapple. Sure, it could be done, but there would be markers showing it.
This suggests it is naturally made and in the wild first.

I will keep looking for the article, but this is why I am not convinced Covid is man-made. But this doesn't mean it isn't an accidental escape though. I just haven't seen evidence for this at this point. Maybe I have missed it?

Lab leak does not equate to lab created.  It is entirely possible that they were experimenting on bats when the virus escaped.  It may have been there all along, but they just made it more accessible.

50
The politics / Re: Biden’s Presidency
« on: January 25, 2021, 06:10:57 PM »
Ranking the Most Influential Democratic Donors in the 2020 Race
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/most-influential-democratic-donors-2020-elections.html

follow the money.

Somewhat amazing how more billionaires are contributing to Democratic candidates than Republican.

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