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Messages - Phoenix

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 7
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: Today at 02:58:02 PM »
The one thing I don't understand is the Beaufort sea. That's way behind this season...

2019 was exceptionally strong start in Beaufort. To begin the season, low volume as depicted in Wip's volume gif. Strong heat in NW Canada which was similar to what we saw in Siberia a week or so ago. Early presence of warm SST's and the right wind direction to import the heat from NA and push the open water which got the albedo down. Everything was clicking.

Now you see the wind along the Beaufort coast which you noted from your gif. The angle of the wind is not quite perfect for maximizing the open water. It is blowing just slightly in the direction of NA which will keep some ice pinned to the coast. Also, the current wind is pulling air in from CAA which is now cold so next day or two won't be so bad for the ice. In a few days, it is forecast to start pulling air from a warmer source which should speed things up.

Good way to find this out.....go to the 2019 data thread and determine the dates when the ice loss was taking off and then go to the 2019 melting thread for those dates and see what people were observing at that time.....check it out.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.900.html

2
4.10M km2 (3.75 to 4.25 bucket)

Very strong start in Siberia and Cablantic. Average start in Pacific and CAA holding it down.

Gerontocrat's charts says 5 year average melt will get us to 4.26M so I'm moving up to the 4-4.5 bucket.

Obviously, the group here senses a big melt event this summer.

3
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: Today at 03:21:58 AM »
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable.
~ John F. Kennedy


4
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: Today at 01:30:39 AM »
Quote
volume has flat lined since 2012.
Min volume may have, of course it could be temporary . In any case this is an insufficient measure. Check May volume. Check 365-day moving average.

Summer and winter are completely different animals. I could more easily get on board something approaching a linear trend at the max. The constraint on winter expansion of ice is dominated by AGW and temperature. Simple in comparison to the variables associated with summer contraction.

But look at gerontocrat's extent chart today which compares remaining loss from june 1 to the minimum.

The range from 2013-2019 is 6.36 to 6.81M km2.
The range for 2007-2011    is 6.50 to 7.37M km2 (3/5 years over the top of the last seven years range)

So while I acknowledge winter max may be on a linear decline, we see some evidence that the melting season loss may be shrinking as we hit a core which is more difficult to crack. We can simultaneously have a linear trend at the max and not at the min.


5
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: Today at 12:39:25 AM »
TS Cristobal has duly formed in the Gulf of Mexico

It's hardly going anywhere for 3 days. Just going to sit there and dump rain on the same region in Mexico. ~ 20" forecast.

6
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 02, 2020, 10:39:18 PM »

I ask the moderators to moderate people on this post trying to foment violence and terror.

I feel the same.

7
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 02, 2020, 08:44:36 PM »
This is a scary situation for the whole world. The US probably falls into the conventional definition of "too big to fail".

The unsustainability of the current paradigm is pretty obvious, but the mechanism of transformation to a new balance is far from clear. i worked my ass off for the Bernie Sanders "kumbaya" scenario. I don't see a future w/o something resembling a Green New Deal.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 02, 2020, 08:18:19 PM »
I appreciate the raw data. Last year when the area losses took off in June, Neven provided the information letting us know we had two days in a row of 200K+ area losses.

When we see unusual anomalies in the 5 day average, there is a natural curiosity about the daily number.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: June 02, 2020, 08:07:24 PM »
Thanks for the video and your reply Kassy.

In terms of how much to tell a person, I would try to follow the buddhist principle of Right Speech. If telling someone something will increase their suffering, then we should not tell them. In the case of a 32 year old woman considering having a child, we must tell the full truth because we need to also consider the experience of the child over their lifetime.

For a small child or someone who is beyond the years of having children, then we might consider witholding some of the truth according to our judgement of whether it will benefit them.

In terms of presenting a projection of the sea ice outlook, I would show all the data including the last seven years with no new record in volume. The video is a good one, but someone looking at that would not get the impression that volume has flat lined since 2012. I would tell them that I couldn't rule out the possibility of a coordinated international push regarding clean energy and innovation in carbon capture preventing a BOE altogether (however low I might personally feel about those chances).

To simplify, the possible outcomes with respect to salvage are binary and so is the paradigm regarding effort. It is either possible or impossible to meaningfully salvage long term human existence and we either will or will not make an effort to pursue salvage. This is a matrix with four buckets and the one really bad one seems to be the one where salvage is possible and we don't make the effort. So, I think extra care must be taken that we don't take a position that discourages effort even if the probability of success is on the low side (as I believe it is).

There is a fine line in the whole climate messenging business to try and find the sweet spot. That place where you invoke the appropriate fear in order to motivate people to action, but don't overwhelm them into paralysis or giving up. It's not easy and most of us face this struggle internally and many have an impulse to block it out. I am choosing to not block this out. I want to lean into awareness of the experience.


10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 02, 2020, 06:40:16 PM »
The total area of 2020 v. 2019 is now almost exactly the same thru 6/1, but the regional disparity is just crazy. Let's break it down according to a regional perspective.

Where 2020 leads:

Atlantic (Kara / Barents, +135k)
Siberia (ESS + Laptev, +200k)
Periphery (the rest, +100k)

Where 2019 leads

Pacific (Beaufort / Chukchi, + 350k)
Core (CAB / CAA, + 80k)
Greenland (+10k)

Analysis -  2019 maintains huge lead in seas which retained significant ice at 2019 minimum (CAB, CAA and Beaufort). Best opportunity for 2020 to make up ground is Siberian CAB. Making up ground on Atlantic CAB is historically difficult penetrating deep Arctic. Advantage 2019. Pathway to a record in 2020 after a coldish winter, slow start in Pacific and now a pause in momentum seems unlikely to say the least. But this has been a strange year and weather gods will always prevail.

edit: Wipneus has posted the PIOMAS gif depiction for May and the 3D picture conforms to the 2D picture. Looks like the best place for 2020 to make a run at the CAB is definitely from Laptev. Beaufort / CAA ice looking very healthy in 3D.

11
Consequences / Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« on: June 02, 2020, 04:26:24 PM »
Another cyclone headed for India. This time from the Arabian Sea  tracking for landfall in Mumbai tomorrow. Winds will be close to a low end Cat 1.

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/06/02/cyclone-nisarga-set-to-intensify-coastal-areas-on-alert.html

12
Science / Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: June 02, 2020, 09:31:45 AM »
Not sure where this belongs, but here's a link to a new study that makes the case that today's CO2 levels haven't been observed in 23 million years.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-06/gsoa-sst060120.php

The team used the fossilized remains of ancient plant tissues to produce a new record of atmospheric CO2 that spans 23 million years of uninterrupted Earth history. They have shown elsewhere that as plants grow, the relative amount of the two stable isotopes of carbon, carbon-12 and carbon-13 changes in response to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 02, 2020, 09:16:50 AM »
I have a question and an observation for board comment.

Put "penetration depth of solar radiation into the ocean" into google and read the answers.

Perhaps you can enlighten me on the etiquette as to when this thread should be used. 

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic energy balance
« on: June 02, 2020, 08:47:08 AM »
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL064373

Geophysical Research Letters
Warm‐air advection, air mass transformation and fog causes rapid ice melt
June 2015

Abstract
Direct observations during intense warm‐air advection over the East Siberian Sea reveal a period of rapid sea‐ice melt. A semistationary, high‐pressure system north of the Bering Strait forced northward advection of warm, moist air from the continent. Air‐mass transformation over melting sea ice formed a strong, surface‐based temperature inversion in which dense fog formed. This induced a positive net longwave radiation at the surface while reducing net solar radiation only marginally; the inversion also resulted in downward turbulent heat flux. The sum of these processes enhanced the surface energy flux by an average of ~15 W m−2 for a week. Satellite images before and after the episode show sea‐ice concentrations decreasing from > 90% to ~50% over a large area affected by the air‐mass transformation. We argue that this rapid melt was triggered by the increased heat flux from the atmosphere due to the warm‐air advection.

(from conclusion - An extra 20 W m−2 surface heating would theoretically melt an additional ~4–5 cm of ice over 7 days)


Interesting article, but the melt is caused by changes in radiation, not the heat of the WAA.

Do you not understand that heat is thermal radiation?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_radiation

When solar radiation is absorbed by the earth's crust, it is changed in wavelength to long wave infrared radiation and reflected back into the atmosphere. AGW is happening because that long wave radiation frequency is absorbed and redirected by ghg molecules. It's getting hotter here on earth because we are retaining more long wave radiation.

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: June 02, 2020, 07:47:06 AM »
We are somewhat going round in circles here.Is WAA important? yes.

Yes, we are covering some ground repetitively. But at least we're off the main thread. If someone like igs comes in, I would like to be able to respond and point him in the right direction.

Does it prove DHACSOO? No, IMHO.

Some ideas have value even if they can not be proven. I have indicated several times that my goal is not to prove what will happen in the future. So some of the circular element seems to come from repeatedly raising proof as a standard of what is useful.

My goal is to present a logical case regarding the durability of the Arctic which contrasts with (and hopes to be more compelling than) the seemingly default linear assumption. Here, I am shadow boxing because there is no spokesperson for the linear assumption who has any burden of making a logical case that the linear assumption is true.

Compare to bathymetry and see if fits the SOO part. I think enough years show the perceived correlation to be almost a coincidence (except on the Atlantic border) - 2007 in the shallow Laptev vs. the deep ice-free CAB, 2011 and 2016 in the shallow ESS, most years in the deep but ice-free Beaufort.

The recognition of the relatively consistent boundary on the Atlantic side is a good development here IMO. SOO was developed mostly with this boundary and the CAA in mind.

This recognition would seem to favor an approach that says early season results in the Kara and Barents are less relevant than other areas of the "High Arctic" because they are not likely to portend much difference in the final outcome.

It would of course be important to try and iterate to an understanding of the factors enabling the incremental progress in certain years where the deep water boundary has been crossed on the Siberian side and both the land / depth boundary in Beaufort.

Would you care to comment on this image, and what might explain it? What the heck happened at the North Pole? Where did the energy come from, and what's to prevent from it showing up again? And why did the ESS not bow to its proximity to a heat-advecting continent?

Here the nuance of the argument is a little more subtle. We acknowledge that there will be significant variation in the weather in both directions. I try to make a distinction in characterizing future variations in the total ice outcome into two categories.

1. Chronic progression of AGW
2. Unpredictable seasonal variation

'07, '12 and '16 are examples of unpredictable seasonable variation. There is no consistency in the pattern of their progression. I am trying to make the case that getting to a near term BOE is completely dependent upon unpredictable variation.

My own explanation is that the ice is very mobile, and the shape of its distribution at minimum depends on prevailing winds and currents, with most years following the typical transport pattern from Siberia to Ellesmere/Greenland.

I will certainly pay closer attention to these attributes in 2020 and hope you will point out evidence that aims to demonstrate that connection. A big part of the benefit of a hypothesis is that it challenges us to learn and iterate to a better and better understanding.

I think the practical value of this inquiry might be encapsulated in the following hypothetical conversation.

Imagine a 32 year old woman is trying to make a decision about whether or not to have a child. She has a limited window of time to make a decision and is concerned about the prospects of civilization collapse. As part of her investigation she is intelligently investigating climate change and her inquiry includes the following two questions.

1) Is there a chance that we could experience a BOE and not have collateral consequences which make collapse likely? In other words, can we survive a BOE? (Here, I might direct this young woman to follow the work of someone like Jennifer Francis and see where that leads.)

2) The second question would be regarding the likelihood and timing of a potential BOE. Here we don't have voices of equivalent standing to someone like Dr. Francis because there is so much uncertainty.

This hypothetical scenario is reflective of a genuine concern that young people have and i have many connections to people approaching this age in the coming 5-10 years. The way we talk about the future of the ice should bear in mind the decisions that these people will need to make.

i imagine myself presenting the counter argument to anyone telling these young people that a BOE is likely in the near future. i wouldn't dare tell them that BOE isn't possible and I would definitely show them the results from previous decades. I would simply tell them that there isn't a scientific case supporting the likelihood of the trend continuing. I would emphasize the differences between the remaining ice and the already conquered ice as best I could. I would tell them that there is still some possibility that BOE and collapse could be avoided. In the absence of certainty, I would guide them toward hope.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 02, 2020, 05:10:15 AM »
THE JUDGEMENT DAY is coming. Terribly large low albedo region ever seen.

Hi peter, is it possible to put up a comparison with 2019 as well ?

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: June 02, 2020, 02:44:53 AM »
Hi igs,

Post 52 above is a link to a study conducted by a respected professor of meteorology at a major European university with at least ten co-authors, including from respected institutions in the US and UK. These professionals went to the Arctic with the express intent of measuring the impact of heat waves on ice and took instrumentation with them specifically designed to distinguish levels of radiation from warm air and solar.

Oren hasn't disputed the ability of WAA to cause substantial ice melt or indicated that preconditioning is a precursor to WAA induced melt (as it is with solar). He was only saying that at a minimum, WAA is helpful in triggering the preconditioning process which enhances the impact of solar.

If meteorology scientists are conducting field research which passes the peer review threshold for publication in well respected journals, we should probably just get out of the way and assume they know what they're talking about. Feel free to peruse the study and thanks for your interest and participation in this topic.


18
Interesting to see the voting pattern. After 14 votes, close to a perfect bell curve around a midpoint expectation of 3.50M km2.

30 votes now in. Midpoint average is closer to 3.60M km2.


19
The politics / Re: The American Progressive Movement
« on: June 01, 2020, 11:27:04 PM »
https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/2020/06/01/sanders-and-schumer-respond-cbo-estimate-pandemic-may-cause-16-trillion-long

Sanders and Schumer release joint statement reflecting need for greater economic stimulus.

Bernie's credibility with the people has earned him de facto co-leadership status for senate dems.

20
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 01, 2020, 09:53:25 PM »
It's a homicide either way.

I think the protesters want him to be suffocated. So they have a reason to burn and loot.

Well Alexander, what do you think is the appropriate response from a group that routinely sees its members murdered and the perpetrators go unpunished?

How should I respond ? Just roll over and die?

21
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 01, 2020, 08:24:20 PM »
The official repport says he did not die from suffocation. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8371557/George-Floyds-autopsy-claims-died-underlying-heart-conditions-not-strangulation.html

So long as we all understand that it was related to stresses related to his difficulty breathing because of the cop, that's all that matters. It's a homicide either way.

22
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 01, 2020, 07:33:50 PM »
But the extermination of six million Jews in the Holocaust is a reminder that color is completely unnecessary for oppressive forces to find the hierarchy they seek.

Nope, it's the exact same thing: The belief in the existence of 'race'.

I don't understand the use of the word "Nope", here. We are pretty much in agreement.

I think the larger point I'm making is that the larger social disease is forcing us into a situation where many individuals are encountering resource scarcity and the herd members are receiving the stimulus that the herd may have to organize for a potential shrinking. This is activating things which are hard wired into the limbic brain for the benefit of species survival.

Race and religion are simply arbitrary constructs that humans have come up with to differentiate the herd into sub groups in order to create the organizational hierarchy necessary to manage larger populations. The need for organizational hierarchy arose from evolutionary forces. Nature abhors a vacuum.

The constructs we use for societal decision making and resource allocation are in need of some major tweaks. We don't have any established societal mechanisms for orderly shrinkage and our resource consumption is currently far beyond sustainable. In the absence of anything civilized coming from the frontal cortex, the limbic process will play out.

 

23
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 01, 2020, 06:30:15 PM »
it's the powerful vs. the oppressed.

I agree but, the quality and quantity of oppression is merely defined by skin color. Oftentimes in fascism vs. rule of law kind of level of difference.

This is a nuanced discussion. I agree that there is a high degree of correlation of oppression to a color gradient. But the extermination of six million Jews in the Holocaust is a reminder that color is completely unnecessary for oppressive forces to find the hierarchy they seek.

I am resisting the impulse to put black people on the pedestal as poster children for oppression. It reinforces the idea that I (as a caucasian person) am separate from them. I do not feel separate from them. When I see the murder of my black brothers, i feel that this is a member of my human family and I understand that my fate is intertwined with the fate of this person. I understand that if this person is not safe, I am also not safe.

I am not black and I will never be able to walk in the shoes of a black person and experience the unique qualities of oppression that they face strictly based upon skin color. But I understand that in order to navigate our way out of the mess humanity finds itself in, we must resist the forces that seek to separate us into identity silos.

When one of us is oppressed, we are all oppressed.




24
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 01, 2020, 05:36:59 PM »
Thank you very much Kassy, those links you share corroborate what I found in my poking around these topics yesterday.

An understanding of these factors has the potential to illuminate (pun intended) our understanding of the relationship between bathymetry and Arctic melting processes.

25
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 01, 2020, 05:19:20 PM »
It's interesting to see the role black voters play in the perpetuation of the entire paradigm.

You have a guy like Bernie Sanders come along to run for POTUS and IMO, he's got the policy prescriptions which reverse the half century trend of wealth concentration and ease the pressure on all working class Americans, including the working class white guy who is most likely to put his knee on their neck.

Bernie wins the first three states in the primary and you arrive in South Carolina where the black vote is overwhelmingly important. Then the prominent black politician Jim Clyburn tells the black community to vote for Biden and they do. Then you have black icon Barack Obama working behind the scenes to engineer the other candidates dropping out (or staying in with the case of Liz Warren) and the mainstream media working 24/7 to cultivate fear of a Sanders nomination.

Then you step back and realize the bigger picture is not white vs. black, it's the powerful vs. the oppressed. The system has granted power fiefs to black politicians like Clyburn and Obama in return for their commitment to work on behalf of the system which oppresses all working class American's, including my black brothers and sisters. They are sellouts who betray the interests of their own race for personal gain.









26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 01, 2020, 04:21:33 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Good stuff Freegrass. This version with temp + wind IMO is the best version and a nice contribution to the thread.

This one is very interesting to see the interaction of the Beaufort high with three lows around it and well demonstrates the winds which should be pushing the Beaufort pack ice toward an eventual liftoff point. I recall an interesting poll thread discussion around that last year. There is a bit of a tease in the very end of the 5 day window with the warmth coming from the Atlantic side. Curious to see where that warmth is intended to go on subsequent days.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 01, 2020, 12:24:37 PM »
May is over !! Only 7 months left of this weird year  :D

I have a question. 3.61M km2 extent loss to date appears to be the highest on your chart which begins in 2007. Is this a season to date record through May ??

28
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: June 01, 2020, 12:04:55 PM »
I would encourage people to view these events through a Darwinistic lens and see that racism is simply a symptom of more fundamental survival forces at work when broader systems break down.

For an historic parallel, I would refer to the situation of post WW I Germany in the wake of the treaty of Versailles. Without passing judgement on the responsibility of what put the German nation in that particular situation, we see in hindsight that the French were insistent on reparations demands that were incompatible with a sustainable German nation. Powerless, the Germans had to accept and were soon thereafter in a situation where there was widespread starvation and despair.

In the absence of any leverage to force the people at the controls to help them, people subconsciously and organically arrive at the conclusion that they must undermine the system which
oppresses them in order to survive. They are in a Darwinistic frame of kill or be killed and nothing trumps survival.

Like a young lion cub that must grow up to kill wildebeests and water buffalo in order to survive, the ultimate target is an unrealistic goal in the early stages of development but the young lion must learn how to kill in incremental degrees of difficulty in order to graduate. So the cub begins with slower and weaker prey. When a young lion kills a lizard, we recognize it as a necessary evolution process.

In the case of the Germans, the history of how they progressed through incremental stages of killing difficulty is well established and need not be rehashed here. But ultimately it can be argued that they were successful in killing the paradigm that they began with. However horrifying the process, it can easily be argued that the survivors in the German nation was in better position in 1955 than in 1925. Nature abhors a vacuum and the Nazis filled it.

The situation in America today is not quite so advanced in terms of the level of economic suffering seen in Germany a century ago, but the situation is certainly moving in that direction. What is common is the sense of powerlessness of the average American system which is well described on many threads in this forum. The US political system is deeply intertwined with the interests of a wealthy minority and has fortified the system against intelligent self-regulation. The politicains, courts, electoral processes, and media institutions have all been co-opted.

The average citizen probably does not grasp this and even if they do, they are essentially powerless to stop it. What they certainly do understand is the increasing survival pressure and declining visibility to a secure future. They are in an earlier but equivalent phase of what the Germans were sensing in the 1920's. The herd is understanding that the system itself must be killed. Like the young lion, the ability to kill must be cultivated and it must start with those that post no threat. These processes start with the weak and progress incrementally.

As one of those Americans who is acutely aware of my lack of political power, I've been expecting the system to lead us in this direction. In the absence of ability to address the big flaws in the system, we start small and kill the things which are accessible to us.... each other.

We have two routes to go. The elegant path of progressive legislation or the violent path of burning the system down. Someone like Trump offers the malignant narcissism necessary to lead the violent path if the elegant route doesn't emerge. Nature abhors a vacuum and the gene pool has produced enough people with the appropriate personality attributes. There will be another Trump waiting in the wings.

As a person of Jewish descent, i had to grapple with the experience of my ancestors in the Holocaust and arrive at a viewpoint which allows me to maintain compassion for the experience of the starving German citizen of the 1920's. I think there may have been some attributes of ethnic supremacy which were prevalent in the cultural mythology. Those attributes were probably determinative of which groups got the short end of the stick in the Holocaust. But a lot of christians died in that war too.

I don't excuse racism and think these examples of police murders should be prosecuted and punished to the maximum extent possible. But I still have compassion for the economic and survival pressure that the white supremacist asshole is facing and want to take the boot off his / her neck so that they do not have the motivation to go looking for victims.

Racism is a symptom of the underlying system dynamics. If everyone in America was white, the herd would organize itself according to some other hierarchy in order to play out the same dynamic we are seeing now. The herd is simply organizing itself into sub-herds.

Of course, the corporate media is doing all it can to promote the black vs.white paradigm because they are agents of the ruling class. They do all they can to keep the focus off of the underlying class war which is the root cause of this. It is only after the rich people become afraid for their personal survival that editorials like this will begin to appear in the mainstream press.

The current version of America is unsustainable and breaking. We don't know what the next version is going to look like. I am pushing hard here to educate people about the virtues of the elegant path with a Green New Deal as a centerpiece. We'll see what happens.





29
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 01, 2020, 10:04:04 AM »
May 27-31.

2019.

May 1-31 (fast).

These are awesome !! Love the one month format and the addition of the link to prior year comparison. Very educational.

We need a solid southerly wind through CAA to open the megacrack and then we can watch the whole damn thing spin.

30
4.25 - 4.75

31
Interesting to see the voting pattern. After 14 votes, close to a perfect bell curve around a midpoint expectation of 3.50M km2.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 01, 2020, 08:20:05 AM »
Phoenix, I think this will help if you know how to use calculus.
http://spiff.rit.edu/classes/phys440/lectures/optd/optd.html

Thanks for the offer nanning. i don't know how to use calculus. Just throwing the question out there to see if anyone else here has wrestled with the issue of depth of penetration of solar into open water.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 01, 2020, 08:14:00 AM »
I'm not sure I can answer your question, but about your comment on bottom melt - if you check out the Mosaic updates, the graphics posted by uniquorn and Simon show bottom melt has already begun as soon as air temps reached around -5 to 0. I guess to keep the bottom ice from melting in the salty water requires active cooling, and once it's gone the core ice temperatures climb and bottom melt begins.

Hi Oren, I was reading a research article on the connection between open water and extreme bottom melt in the Beaufort in the epic 2007 melt season. It suggests that open water may be a good early season indicator. This could elevate my impression of the importance of JAXA numbers as I perceive that JAXA sensor is better than NSIDC area when it comes to measuring truly open water.

Here is the article if you or anyone else would like to peruse.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL034007

34
The politics / Re: The American Progressive Movement
« on: June 01, 2020, 01:27:25 AM »
Yes bl, let's focus on class and not fall for the divide and conquer kabuki show the msm gives us.

bernie rips mcconnell on covid relief

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/05/31/over-100000-dead-and-depression-level-unemployment-sanders-calls-mcconnells

aoc rips de blasio on nyc police brutality

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/500313-ocasio-cortez-rips-de-blasio-after-police-cruiser-drives-into-crowd-of?amp

(How awesome would aoc as mayor of NYC be? If she can succeed there, that's a resume builder for POTUS)

35
4.10M km2 (3.75 to 4.25 bucket)

Very strong start in Siberia and Cablantic. Average start in Pacific and CAA holding it down.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 01, 2020, 12:55:21 AM »
I have a question and an observation for board comment.

First, I have a question about the penetration depth of solar radiation into the ocean. I'm interested in understanding if shallow areas like the ESS shelf have incoming EMR reaching the ocean floor.

The observation came from some reading today which indicates a potential defense mechanism for the ice. First year ice has higher salt content which limits depth of solar radiation penetration. This suggests a mechanism for inhibiting progression of bottom melt.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: June 01, 2020, 12:32:49 AM »
I think it was mentioned already that it's not only about directly melting it out but at least if not more importantly about conditioning the ice surface to a condition where it will be vulnarable to other key factors like insolation, albedo and the likes.

Hi igs, Are you referring to WAA?

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: May 31, 2020, 07:25:33 PM »

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL064373

Geophysical Research Letters
Warm‐air advection, air mass transformation and fog causes rapid ice melt
June 2015

Abstract

Direct observations during intense warm‐air advection over the East Siberian Sea reveal a period of rapid sea‐ice melt. A semistationary, high‐pressure system north of the Bering Strait forced northward advection of warm, moist air from the continent. Air‐mass transformation over melting sea ice formed a strong, surface‐based temperature inversion in which dense fog formed. This induced a positive net longwave radiation at the surface while reducing net solar radiation only marginally; the inversion also resulted in downward turbulent heat flux. The sum of these processes enhanced the surface energy flux by an average of ~15 W m−2 for a week. Satellite images before and after the episode show sea‐ice concentrations decreasing from > 90% to ~50% over a large area affected by the air‐mass transformation. We argue that this rapid melt was triggered by the increased heat flux from the atmosphere due to the warm‐air advection.

(from conclusion - An extra 20 W m−2 surface heating would theoretically melt an additional ~4–5 cm of ice over 7 days)

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic energy balance
« on: May 31, 2020, 06:50:19 PM »
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL064373

Geophysical Research Letters
Warm‐air advection, air mass transformation and fog causes rapid ice melt
June 2015

Abstract
Direct observations during intense warm‐air advection over the East Siberian Sea reveal a period of rapid sea‐ice melt. A semistationary, high‐pressure system north of the Bering Strait forced northward advection of warm, moist air from the continent. Air‐mass transformation over melting sea ice formed a strong, surface‐based temperature inversion in which dense fog formed. This induced a positive net longwave radiation at the surface while reducing net solar radiation only marginally; the inversion also resulted in downward turbulent heat flux. The sum of these processes enhanced the surface energy flux by an average of ~15 W m−2 for a week. Satellite images before and after the episode show sea‐ice concentrations decreasing from > 90% to ~50% over a large area affected by the air‐mass transformation. We argue that this rapid melt was triggered by the increased heat flux from the atmosphere due to the warm‐air advection.

(from conclusion - An extra 20 W m−2 surface heating would theoretically melt an additional ~4–5 cm of ice over 7 days)


40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 31, 2020, 02:40:09 PM »

What Gandul was trying to say is about the surface of the ice.


That was my understanding as well. But since open water has such minimal albedo that wetness" is more important in heating up the sea which will be important when the gyre breaks into pieces. 2019 had an advanced quality of high SST's near the coast of Canada. When the wind blew the rubble toward the coast, this was a death zone for the ice. 

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 31, 2020, 02:10:24 PM »
If the forecast holds, the Beaufort is going to look quite different in ten days. Steady winds blowing parallel to the coast are going to augment the spin of the gyre and the region will get a steady diet of warmth. i envision lots of open water and steep area drop.

Edit: Growing evidence of >0C SST's on the Pacific side as well.
Yes. This year Beaufort sea surface is getting wetterr sooner than 2019 and little by little ice drift is showing open water,  a persistent Beaufort high early June is not good!!

Wetter than 2019 at this point would be hard to say. 2019 is 200k km2 ahead of 2020 area loss at this point with major region of open sea. Hard to get wetter than open water. Now we watch 2020 catch up in this region.

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 31, 2020, 11:19:12 AM »
If the forecast holds, the Beaufort is going to look quite different in ten days. Steady winds blowing parallel to the coast are going to augment the spin of the gyre and the region will get a steady diet of warmth. i envision lots of open water and steep area drop.

Edit: Growing evidence of >0C SST's on the Pacific side as well.

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: May 31, 2020, 07:40:16 AM »
In short, WAA can melt snow, reducing its albedo and letting in the real monster, sunlight. So you cannot completely discount it no matter what calculations show regarding total energy transferred.

The fallacy inherent in this WAA discussion is that continental mainland is somehow more effecient at transferring heat to the Arctic than the open ocean.

I'm arguing that we can't get enough incremental WAA to the as yet unconquered ice to melt it out.

It seems you agree with me on that point Binntho since you're representing that WAA doesn't even make a material difference to the ice adjacent to the coast. We disagree on the influence in coastal ice, but it's not necessary to hash it out with reference to the potential durability of the Arctic. We are in agreement that there is no evidence that WAA will push us over the edge. Good!

As far as the ocean is concerned, this is the third time I'm making this point and the last.

The ocean is outstanding at bringing heat to the Arctic....at depth. The ice is at the surface, not at depth.

The density gradient is a traffic cop. This is the last invitation to explain how one should expect the denser ocean water to beat the density gradient and melt out the remaining ice. We saw a major exception with salt free warm river water in 2012, an unpredictable event going forward.

My argument is that there is no clear mechanism being proposed by the near term BOE group which explains how the remaining ice will be conquered. I'm glad you agree that it won't come from the sun to land to ice pathway and think this is not the place to argue over issues which are irrelevant to the future durability of the ice. The Arctic energy thread is a good place for that WAA discussion to continue.

44
The politics / Re: The American Progressive Movement
« on: May 31, 2020, 06:04:46 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90G_QdxqqJs&feature=youtu.be

Cornel West spilling truth on CNN with Anderson Cooper. Correctly identifying the symptoms we see on the streets as a failure of capitalism and referring to America as a failed social experiment.

I so admire West for his willingness here to point out that black american's didn't see improvements in civil rights under a black president with a black attorney general and his acknowledgement that black politicians are generally co-opted by the neoliberal democratic alliance with big money.

45
The rest / Re: George Floyd murder and blowback
« on: May 31, 2020, 05:19:38 AM »

Amy Klobuchar declined to prosecute officer at center of George Floyd's death after previous conduct complaints


Her VP hopes just went down the tubes. When Jim Clyburn starts making public comments about your prospects, it's time to pay attention.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/29/politics/amy-klobuchar-vice-president-criminal-justice-record/index.html

"We are all victims sometimes of timing and some of us benefit tremendously from timing," Clyburn said Friday. "This is very tough timing for Amy Klobuchar. ... The timing is tough."

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 31, 2020, 05:05:12 AM »

 If you look around on world view, you can see almost ALL rivers leading to the arctic are emptying onto the ice. I've never analyzed the implications of so much fresh water into the system this early.

The root cause of all the early influx is clearly problematic. But if it's coming, it's probably best that it comes quick and doesn't get delayed en route and get a chance to warm up at lower latitude. Any influx of warm fresh water is going to stay at the surface and melt the ice that it encounters.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: May 31, 2020, 02:49:09 AM »
What's your opinion about how it ends bc? Do you think the future march to the pole will just be a smooth continuation of what we saw from 1979-2012 or does AGW have a tougher adversary to crack in the remaining ice?

Does it mean anything that the ice / water boundary at the Sept 2019 minimum is lined up parallel to the line that separates the shallow Atlantic CAB from the deep CAB or did the weather gods just put it there to make me curious?


48
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: May 30, 2020, 04:40:32 PM »
I guess it has something to do with the rain (darker blue tones).

Click to play.

it's also warm there. GFS is showing a +2C 2m temp in the region.

You don't often see a blob in the middle of the Arctic that is represented as warmer than the area surrounding it, but this is one of the occasions. Only a 1C differential, but i wonder what causes this.  Could be connected to the temp of the rain !

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: May 30, 2020, 03:50:52 PM »
Last one of these....

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=2533.1500

Post # 1503 from Friv on last years data thread..

Told ya all.

Never underestimate or ignore surface temperatures.

They are the end all be all.


2019 might not finish the lowest but it will be close.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: DHACSOO - A Durable Arctic Hypothesis
« on: May 30, 2020, 03:37:12 PM »
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/europe-s-heat-wave-is-about-to-melt-the-arctic-20190727-p52bam.html

(articler regarding summer 2019 heat wave)

Zack Labe, a climate researcher at the University of California at Irvine who focuses on Arctic climate change, said the upcoming Arctic heatwave could have major ramifications and may push sea ice to another record low at the end of the melt season.

"This appears to be a very significant event for the Arctic," he said of the upcoming weather pattern.

"A massive upper-level ridge will position itself across the North Atlantic and eventually Greenland in the next few days. This negative North Atlantic Oscillation-like pattern will be associated with well above average temperatures in Greenland. In fact, simulations from the MARv3.9 model suggest this may be the largest surface melt event of the summer," Labe said, referring to a computer model projection of surface ice melt in Greenland.

(fwiw -congrats to zach labe on earning his PhD last week)

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