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Messages - wili

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1
Consequences / Re: 2018 Droughts
« on: January 20, 2018, 03:09:37 PM »
Scribbler on how Iranian drought is increasing political instability (shades of Syria):

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/01/20/how-climate-change-is-fueling-irans-political-instability/


2
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: January 20, 2018, 02:34:57 PM »
Now, apparently, Trump wants to outlaw natural birth in the ninth month of pregnancy:

“Right now, in a number of states, the laws allow a baby to be born from his or her mother’s womb in the ninth month,” Trump said. “It is wrong. It has to change.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-flubs-anti-abortion-speech_us_5a627b15e4b002283002c6c0?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

 ;D ;D

3
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: January 16, 2018, 12:04:53 AM »
A consequence of places becoming less livable is that people from those newly unlivable places necessarily either die or become refugees:


Study finds that global warming exacerbates refugee crises

Higher temperatures increase the number of people seeking asylum in the EU


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jan/15/study-finds-that-global-warming-exacerbates-refugee-crises

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: January 13, 2018, 02:49:46 AM »
Armed raid on nuclear workers' housing raises fears over Brazil's two reactors

This kind of thing will occur more and more frequently with worse and worse outcome as we go further and further down the rabbit whole of societal collapse...

then all the wet dreams of 'clean, free, un-meterable nuke power' will rapidly turn into horrific living nightmares...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/12/brazil-nuclear-reactor-armed

5
Consequences / 2018 Droughts
« on: January 12, 2018, 07:03:15 AM »
The World’s First Major City to Run Out of Water May Have Just Over Three Months Left
    It’s the height of summer in Cape Town, and the southwesternmost region of South Africa is gripped by a catastrophic water shortage. Unless the city adopts widespread rationing, the government says, the taps “will be turned off” on April 22, 2018, because there will be no more water to deliver.

        ... “It’s not an impending crisis—we’re deep, deep, deep in crisis.”

https://qz.com/1176981/the-worlds-first-major-city-to-run-out-of-water-may-have-just-over-three-months-left/



Cape Town, South Africa, Is Running Out of Water

Cape Town, home to more than 4 million, is in the midst of the worst drought to hit South Africa in more than 100 years.

City officials say they will “turn off the tap” in April when dam levels are expected to reach 13.5 percent of capacity.

The situation is dire. Dams supplying the city with usable water dropped this week to 29.7 percent, the city of Cape Town posted to Facebook on Wednesday. Only 19.7 percent of the water is usable. Several times a day, the city encourages residents via social media to conserve water.

Mayor De Lille says she hopes it won’t come down to Day Zero, but the city is already planning for that eventuality. Should the city be forced to turn off the taps, 200 water stations guarded by police and the military will be set up to ration out roughly 6.6 gallons (25 liters) of water per day per resident.

Cape Town isn’t the only city dealing with water issues in a warming world.

The World Wildlife Fund estimates two-thirds of the world may face water shortages by 2025 as droughts become more frequent because of global warming.

https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2018-01-10-cape-town-south-africa-water-shortage-day-zero

thnx to vox at poforums for these

6
Policy and solutions / Re: Solar Roadways
« on: January 11, 2018, 05:45:35 AM »
Daylight robbery: thieves steal chunk of China's new solar highway

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/09/china-solar-highway-thieves-steal-panels

7
Consequences / Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« on: January 01, 2018, 10:31:10 PM »
It always struck me that AC should be the appliance most practically and easily sold with dedicated plug-n-play solar panels. You generally need AC most when the sun is shining, and if you can cool the temp of your home or apt enough in the afternoon, they will likely keep fairly cool through the night. I assume AC can be manufactured to take direct current right from the panel, right?

Dehumidifiers would likely also get people most of the way to the comfort they seek, at a much lower electric demand.

But yeah, the 'human feedback' you point out here is one of many that are likely to bite us. The US, of course, has long been at the forefront of AC adoption, and could point the way toward various alternatives.

8
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 31, 2017, 12:36:53 PM »
Susan said: "Democrats are going to win big in November"

Only if we work furiously to make it happen.

Let's not get complacent like some did before the last election because the polls looked favorable.

9
Thanks, oren and TB.

That concept was familiar to me, but I hadn't heard the phrase 'freshwater hosing' applied to it. Makes sense, though.

10
"freshwater hosing events"

Sorry, could you briefly explain what that is, or provide a link that does. Thanks.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 29, 2017, 04:38:54 PM »
Thanks for those calculations, Geoff.

I don't know if you noticed this link above, but the first lecture by K. Anderson ends with a particularly hard hitting moral plea to turn away from air travel, so I thought you might be interesting. The lecture starts at 20 minutes and the air travel bit is around the 50 minute mark.

http://www.kva.se/sv/kalendarium/the-gordon-goodman-memorial-lecture-2017

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: December 18, 2017, 09:49:08 PM »
Nicely put, Bob.

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Energy Efficiency: The “First Fuel”
« on: December 16, 2017, 08:04:07 PM »
"To do that we'd have to cut electricity use enough to not need coal and natural gas."

Not really, just think of cutting back on electricity as another wedge in your pie chart. The more that it can take out of coal and NG, the easier it is for alternatives to outpace them. As you say, efficiency can be part of that wedge of non-coal/gas use, as long as we can avoid unintended consequences like 'Jevons Paradox.'

15
Science / Re: Trump Administration Assaults on Science
« on: December 14, 2017, 10:36:26 PM »
In fact, it may be more than 100%, since without the enormous industrial carbon dump into the atmosphere in the last hundred plus years, the global temperature probably would have continued its gradual downward trend evident over the last 8000 some years.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: December 14, 2017, 04:53:38 AM »


https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/arctic-temperatures-rising-fast-reported-false_us_5a316487e4b07ff75affaa1f?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

“Arctic Temperatures Are Rising So Fast Computers Don’t Believe They’re Real

An algorithm concluded a weather station in northern Alaska must have broken because it was reporting such high temperatures.”

17
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 13, 2017, 03:09:46 PM »
California was also a major source for Moore's money. Your point?

I wonder if the Republicans should be worried?

1). On the wrong side of global warming
2). On the wrong side of renewable energy
3). On the wrong side of LGBT
4). On the wrong side of tax bill that increases debt by 1.5 Trillion
5). On the wrong side of tax cuts for billionaires
6). On the wrong side of healthcare
7). On the wrong side of support for equal rights in the workplace for women
8). On the wrong side of Donald Trump

9) On the wrong side of pederasty!!

18
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 13, 2017, 07:40:42 AM »
"those who purchased his services"

???

You mean...like...the voters of Alabama?

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/12/12/16767130/jones-moore-campaign-donors


Doug Jones got more money from Alabama voters than Roy Moore did


The Democrat has raised an astonishing sum from donors in his conservative state.

....About 5,000 people in Alabama have donated to Jones, while about 1,000 have donated to Moore — suggesting that Jones leads in grassroots financial support within the state...

19
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 13, 2017, 05:50:19 AM »


Laissez les bon temps...


20
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 13, 2017, 04:58:47 AM »
Well, the National Rep Party stopped funding more a while ago and only started back in recently, so Moore's campaign was probably a bit strapped for cash compared to Jones. But it was mostly a lot of Black folks, and a lot of all sorts of Alabaman's who wanted the state not to be represented by a swine (and he was that even before the sexual allegations cropped up). They didn't want the world, which was definitely watching, to think that their state was so backward that they would elect that kind of creep to make the laws of the land.

I feel like Alabama just entered the modern world!

I guess we have to start loving ol' 'bama a bit now.

21
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 13, 2017, 04:48:51 AM »
bbbbut do we have to hate him if he turns out to be a 'corporate Democrate'???

 ;D :o ::) ??? 8)

22
Ah. Thanks again.

23
Thanks again, ASLR. So it's more about the storms than some new 'Little Ice Age'?

24
Thanks for this, ASLR, and of course for all of your excellent posts.

So what do you or others think is the likely consequence of this for European and North American weather patterns?

25
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: December 12, 2017, 02:27:23 PM »
Good catch, sig. And these studies are assuming that catastrophic cliff failure, etc, in the Antarctic don't kick in in a big way this century, I presume.

So the coasts will be inundated, and much of the interior of North America will be desertifying.



http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2013/drought-western-us-1900-2100.png

26
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 12, 2017, 06:34:08 AM »
"1+1=2 is a fact"

No. it's a construct based on non-factual assumptions, including the assumption that 1 = 1, which is only true in some unreal Euclidean world in which time is not a factor. The moment you say 1, before you get to = 1, what ever that first 1 was measuring has changed to more or less than one, however fractionally. So most basic math is a lie, arguably the most dangerous lie on the planet, since it applies to the world a template that can usabl-y control and destroy the world but does not accurately reflect the world.

Just a thought for your contemplation...

27
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 11, 2017, 02:27:14 PM »
Paddy, can you quote relevant bits from the article. Some of us can't get WaPo without paying.

Oren, I hadn't noticed that phenomenon. I feel I can separate out political from scientific observations, usually.

28
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 11, 2017, 05:09:49 AM »
At 230,000 acres, Thomas is now the fifth largest fire in modern CA history, and it just went down from 15% contained to 10%.

That's 360 square miles, or 930 square kilometers.

29
How about the Atlantic, or New Yorker, Vanity Fair, Rolling Stone, The Nation, Harper's, Village Voice (now only online)...?

I used to read some of those quite regularly, but now I rarely get any of them in print. No idea how or if they are catching on in whatever format with the middle aged and younger. I think probably not, but...

30
Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: December 10, 2017, 09:01:16 PM »
So I here that Western Europe is getting a lot of snow, and the SE US just got hit by a major, unusual snow storm. Meanwhile, it's of course very dry and hot in CA and it looks like those conditions will continue for a while.

Is this all part of a 'stuck' and very loopy jetwave pattern. Is it all connected? Thoughts?

31
The rest / Re: Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
« on: December 10, 2017, 08:34:57 PM »
"One day, a professional US political operator from, say, CAP, could visit this site. Is it useful to them to have to wade through 99 uninformed US political posts to reach the one actual factual scientific update"

I'm sure they would be able to figure out how to find the relevant threads and just look at those, without having to 'wade through' anything irrelevant to that topic. Are you having trouble doing the same? 

32
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 10, 2017, 08:32:16 PM »
"It is now two days since any contributor to this forum had anything to say about Arctic Sea Ice."

...so??

Then post something on Arctic Sea Ice already, instead of bellyaching that no one else has...

Really, it's quite easy to just pick threads you are interested in and ignore the rest. Do you need instructions on how to do that?  :)

33
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 10, 2017, 06:38:58 AM »

34
Policy and solutions / Media (Lack of) CC Coverage
« on: December 07, 2017, 09:03:42 PM »
Apologies if there is already a thread on this, but I couldn't find it. Mods, please feel free to merge with any relevant existing thread.

Climate change is the story you missed in 2017. And the media is to blame


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/07/climate-change-media-coverage-media-matters

Some of Trump’s tweets generate more national coverage than devastating disasters. As the weather gets worse, we need journalism to get better

makes disasters like hurricanes worse, or how Donald Trump threw paper towels at Puerto Ricans?

If you answered the latter, you have plenty of company. Academic Jennifer Good analyzed two weeks of hurricane coverage during the height of hurricane season on eight major TV networks, and found that about 60% of the stories included the word Trump, and only about 5% mentioned climate change.

35
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: December 07, 2017, 08:46:18 PM »
Trump can't even manage to 'do wrong right'!


36
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 03, 2017, 03:59:25 PM »
Tax reform is front and center at WaPo, NYT and other major newspapers and blogs that I follow. Flynn is there but not as prominently. Too bad that these have obscured the coverage of net neutrality a bit, but it's still up there.

(Sorry, I don't follow tv news much)

37
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 03, 2017, 12:03:43 AM »
Neven, the US is used to Israel constantly manipulating our press and elections...so we don't really care about that!  ;D ;D :o

Meanwhile:

Top Trump transition official in private email: Russia 'has just thrown' the election to Trump


http://www.businessinsider.com/emails-kt-mcfarland-russia-thrown-election-to-trump-flynn-2017-12

38
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 02, 2017, 09:28:13 PM »
And now Lawrence Tribe:

Laurence Tribe
(@tribelaw)

The time sequence as Trump now reports it CONFESSES that he KNEW Flynn had committed a major federal felony BEFORE firing Comey for refusing to let that criminal (Flynn) escape justice. That’s a confession of deliberate, corrupt obstruction of justice by @POTUS. QED!


CNN, among others, have now picked up the story:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/02/politics/trump-tweet-flynn-firing-fbi-reaction/index.html

Walter Shaub, a former director of the United States Office of Government Ethics, responded to Trump's tweet, "...just couldn't resist commenting on Flynn. Are you ADMITTING you knew Flynn had lied to the FBI when you asked Comey to back off Flynn?"

...Steve Vladeck, a CNN legal contributor and professor at the University of Texas Law School, said Trump's tweet "certainly implies that, at the time the President fired then-FBI Director Comey, he knew that Flynn had committed a felony. So the question is whether he fired Comey at least in part to try to protect Flynn from prosecution for a felony of which he was already aware."

Vladeck added: "I can't speak to how the special counsel would view this statement, but it betrays an alarming lack of understanding of the relevant legal rules on the President's part, or of the serious legal jeopardy he could be in for actions he may wrongly believe are appropriate."

39
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 02, 2017, 08:56:43 PM »
It's not about the firing of Flynn. It's about what T knew about Flynn when he asked Comey to go easy on him.

"I think the obstruction case was already substantial — both circumstantially and through Trump’s own words," said DOJ veteran and former Assistant Deputy Attorney General Bill Yeomans.

"This tweet certainly contributes to the case. He knew Flynn lied to the FBI when he pressed Comey to drop the case and then fired Comey," Yeomans said. "Mostly disturbingly, however, the tweet shows either that the president is utterly clueless about his own jeopardy or he truly believes he is beyond accountability because neither his base nor Republicans in Congress will hold him responsible."

http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-defends-flynn-there-was-nothing-to-hide-2017-12

Former FBI special agent Asha Rangappa largely agreed.

"I think if the President knew Flynn had done anything illegal at the time he asked Comey to drop investigation, then yes, it strengthens the [obstruction] case," she said on Saturday.

"I think it also has to be looked at in the context of both him and others on the campaign simultaneously and blanketly denying any contacts with Russia, when the statement of facts Flynn pled to clearly shows the opposite," Rangappa added.

"So asking Comey to drop investigation knowing he had lied to FBI, combined with the pattern of lying about the existence and nature of across his campaign evidences a (corrupt) intent to prevent what would be uncovered by the investigation."

Andy Wright, a former associate counsel to President Barack Obama and Vice President Al Gore, said Trump's tweet " could be construed as an admission that he knew Flynn had lied to the FBI on January 24."

"Later that same week, DOJ tells the WH that Flynn is compromised and President Trump tells Jim Comey he 'needs loyalty.' Then, on Valentine’s Day, the President asks Comey if the FBI could 'let Flynn go,'" Wright said. "Having not received the assurances he sought, he fired Comey under the false pretext of Comey’s handling of the Clinton investigation. As an obstruction of justice timeline, it looks very bad."

And Miller again:

"Oh my god, he just admitted to obstruction of justice," tweeted former DOJ spokesman Matt Miller. "If Trump knew Flynn lied to the FBI when he asked Comey to let it go, then there is your case."

"So he knew Flynn had lied, and now he’s admitted it..." Miller later told Business Insider. "Just unreal."

40
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: December 02, 2017, 08:32:22 PM »
Sig, others are now saying the same:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/362935-ex-obama-doj-official-trump-just-admitted-to-obstruction-of

Ex-Obama DOJ official: Trump 'just admitted to obstruction of justice

Lawrence O'Donnell
(@Lawrence)
We now have a winner for most self destructive tweet in history! A confession to obstruction of justice. Trump urged Comey to let Flynn go knowing Flynn was guilty.


Kurt Eichenwald
(@kurteichenwald)

This is unreal. @POTUS just confessed 2 obstruction on twitter. "I fired Flynn because he committed a felony and I knew it, then I pushed FBI director to drop the case." Prepare to see this tweet many times. And watch DC drug stores: Trump lawyers will be buying antacids today.

Patrick S. Tomlinson
(@stealthygeek)

Okay, so. Trump just confessed to Obstruction of Justice. In this tweet, he admits he knew at the time Flynn was fired (2/13/17) that Flynn had lied to the FBI. That's a felony. The following day, Trump met with then FBI Dir Comey and told him to end the Flynn investigation.

 Ted Lieu
@tedlieu

THIS IS OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE. @POTUS now admits he KNEW Michael Flynn lied to the FBI. Yet Trump tried to influence or stop the FBI investigation


https://twitter.com/danpfeiffer/status/937015426772434944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fthehill.com%2Fhomenews%2Fhouse%2F362936-dem-on-trumps-flynn-tweet-this-is-obstruction-of-justice

 Dan Pfeiffer‏@danpfeiffer

If Trump keeps admitting to obstructing justice, Ty Cobb might be right that the Mueller investigation may wrap up sooner than we think


Trump appears to have just admitted to a serious crime on Twitter
This is a brand new version of events from the White House. And it could land the president in very hot water.

https://thinkprogress.org/trump-twitter-obstruction-justice-2af99c5629f6/

If Trump knew that Flynn had lied to the FBI and then asked Comey to drop the investigation, it could amount to obstruction of justice, according to some legal experts.

"This is a pretty substantial confession to essential knowledge elements of an obstruction of justice charge," tweeted Susan Hennessey, a national security fellow at the Brookings Institution.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/362938-in-apparent-shift-trump-tweets-he-fired-flynn-for-lying-to-fbi

But then again:

Citizens for Ethics
(@CREWcrew)

This tweet might be one for the history books, but knowledge of a crime isn't needed for obstruction of justice. The public record contains substantial evidence that President Trump attempted to impede the investigation of Michael Flynn.





41
Antarctica / Re: Potential Collapse Scenario for the WAIS
« on: December 02, 2017, 01:42:50 AM »
Apologies if this has been posted:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076129/abstract

Acceleration in the global mean sea level rise: 2005-2015

42
Consequences / Re: General Drought Stuff
« on: December 01, 2017, 04:24:01 AM »
Amazing!

Meanwhile:

Sahara ‘moving north’
BY CARRIE-MARIE BRATLEY, IN NEWS · 23-11-2017 14:04:00 ·
A leading national expert on climate change has warned that the Iberian Peninsula might soon be facing spells of droughts that could span up to eight years, as Portugal’s climate becomes increasingly like the arid climes of Northern Africa.

http://www.theportugalnews.com/news/sahara-moving-north/43959

thnx to COBob at scribblers for this


43
The rest / Re: Censorship by the good guys
« on: November 27, 2017, 09:49:32 PM »
Yeah, sometimes things get away from him. I've had a number of posts vanish, but I have no reason to think that this was censorship. In my experience, when he does remove something (beside just everyday obvious trolling), he talks about it and explains it. But I guess more could be happening 'invisibly.'

Do you still have trouble posting there?

44
Consequences / Re: Effects of Climate Change on the biosphere
« on: November 27, 2017, 09:26:15 PM »
If 99.9% of humanity passenger pigeons was wiped out there still be 7,000,000 people pigeons and  you can accurately say humans pigeons adapted..."

Fixed that for ya!  ;D

Actually, that is probably wildly conservative.

"One flock in 1866 in southern Ontario was described as being 1.5 km (0.93 mi) wide and 500 km (310 mi) long, took 14 hours to pass, and held in excess of 3.5 billion birds" (wiki)

Large numbers of members in a species is no guarantee that it will not go extinct, even very quickly.

45
The rest / Re: Censorship by the good guys
« on: November 27, 2017, 11:45:55 AM »
Jim, the 'your comment is awaiting moderation' message always comes up at Scribblers when there is more than one link in a comment, for some reason. It's annoying the first few times, but once your realize it, you just respond to your own message with any added links, but always only one per post.

Occasionally there are other problems there, and yes, he will occasionally ban or put people on a tighter leash for a while. But generally it's a pretty open site.

On the Guardian thing, yeah, I think sites don't take well to people posting things that were posted elsewhere. I can imagine various reasons why they might want to do this, but it would just be speculations on my part.

46
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 23, 2017, 03:48:23 PM »
Ah, thanks for the clarification, and, as always for the great links and graphs!

47
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 23, 2017, 03:44:58 PM »
Ah, thanks.

48
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: November 23, 2017, 04:24:03 AM »
"Whitefish halts power work in Puerto Rico..."

I thought they had already been fired.

49
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 23, 2017, 03:44:01 AM »
Thanks for that piece, ASLR, as always. When you say "PETM-like" do you mean "PTME-like"?

I think the first usually refers to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum about 55 mya, which was really bad. But the near total wipe out that you seem to be referring to is End Permian, or Permian-Triassic Mass Extinction (or Great Dying...), right? I must confess getting those acronyms messed up myself quite often, though, so I may be getting confused here myself.

50
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: November 21, 2017, 07:57:13 PM »
Wow, just...wow

But in other news:

http://www.truth-out.org/opinion/item/42609-how-democratic-socialists-worked-with-sanders-s-our-revolution-and-other-grassroots-groups-to-sweep-november-s-elections

How Democratic Socialists Worked With Sanders Supporters and Grassroots Groups to Sweep November's Elections

And note: http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/42662-the-redneck-revolt-is-showing-up-at-gun-shows-and-kkk-rallies-to-end-white-supremacy

The "Redneck Revolt" Is Showing Up at Gun Shows and KKK Rallies to Combat White Supremacy

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