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Messages - Général de GuerreLasse

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 05:11:22 PM »
In the mean time, while I don't know how to find exact area numbers, Nico's graph for the last two days suggest an averaged drop not much different from the past week, in other words around -60k km^2 per day.

you can go here,
https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxhcmN0aXNjaGVwaW5ndWlufGd4OjU1OGIwZWI0NGI2ZDI5YTM
but Juan C. Garcia and Nico have another source, I think, because they have the information before the update of this link, but still with a difference of a few thousand km2.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: August 05, 2020, 04:45:05 PM »
My God gerontocrat! That's awful. I wish you have made backups.
Perhaps we from the forum could each give some money for you to buy a (2nd hand?) laptop.

I wish you strength with the sudden hole in your life/routine.
A virtual hug from me.
Good Idea,
All right, Nanning, if anyone opens a pot to help Gerontocrat, I'm in.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2020)
« on: August 05, 2020, 12:56:11 PM »
I've got a slightly different number in the PIOMAS data, so maybe PIOMAS recalculated it, and a day difference, probably because of the leap year?

Don't know if it's better to stick to calender date or to date number; I think with PIOMAS the latter is better, because they don't have december 31st data in leap years...

Indeed, day 213 in 2019 corresponds to August 1, 2019 and not July 31, 2019. But that would mean that PIOMAS gives figures from day to day, it seems strange to me, I thought the calculations were only done twice a month with the posts of Wipneus  ;).
Thank you for your help

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« on: August 05, 2020, 12:26:32 PM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data was updated. I calculate volume from the thickness data, gives 6.46 [1000km3] on 2019-07-31. Lowest for the day with a small margin with 2012 (6.68 [1000km3]).

Here is the animation.
I think your 6.463 is not correct

Value 2020 on day 213 = 6.516
Value 2019 on day 213 = 6.371

Hello RikW, Here is the origin of the numbers I am reporting. I can't figure out where the error came from. Did Wipneus make a correction? Did I get the dates and numbers wrong? But where then?

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2020)
« on: August 05, 2020, 12:08:16 PM »
A focus on July and the larger picture.

Gap to lowest on record down to just 150 km3


Hello BornFromTheVoid, I am pleased to see you again regularly on ASIF. I seem to recall that you left us to pursue graduate studies.
You say there's a 150-km3 differential between 2019 and 2020, right? It seems to me that the differential is only 57 km3 between the two.
6.520-6.463=57
Where did I go wrong?

6
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: August 04, 2020, 06:09:59 PM »
Does anyone have any information (Sputniknews) about a new much more aggressive mutation, from covid-19 in Vietnam? Is this information to be considered fake news? I've found nothing to confirm that.

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2020)
« on: August 04, 2020, 05:13:22 PM »
I meant just the loss of volume in the region of the CAB. This is considered the hardest ice to melt, so I often focus on it in my analysis. Your numbers are for the total volume loss for all regions.

Edit: in addition, my numbers were for only the 2nd half of July, while yours were for the whole month.

Yes, of course, I'm sorry for the mix-up. As I don't speak English very well I use an automatic translator, which is not very good and my attention is sometimes diverted from the essential. And I'm not talking about the misunderstandings... I'll try to be more attentive. :-[

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2020)
« on: August 04, 2020, 02:30:00 PM »
First of all big thanks to Wipneus as usual for providing PIOMAS data in a digestible format.
Looking at the most recent update, it continues the trends of the summer:
* CAB volume loss for the period shattered the record again (long held by 2007 for 2H July), losing 205 km3 more than 2012 and 262 km3 over 2019, but is still not at record low. Almost.
* Beaufort still high.
* Siberian seas still at record low.
* CAA and Chukchi still on the low side.
* Greenland Sea still on the high side.
* 2012 still has the upcoming August advantage and will need some effort to catch up.
* I still predict a record low volume due to the high energy received in July, and the way the ice looks on Worldview and AMSR. And I still can't justify it with the numbers, who are pointing to 2nd-3rd finish.

I will post some reginal charts and numbers later.

Hello Oren, first of all I would like to thank you for everything you are willing to share with us. You are doing a remarkable job just like Gerontocrat, Wipneus, Juan C. Garcia etc... (too numerous to mention them all here).
Could you explain to me how you arrive at a loss of volume for the year 2020 of 262 km3 greater than that of 2019? While I calculated (with the numbers provided by Wipneus here on this thread) a loss of 423 km3 more than in 2019. See my previous post.
6010-5587= 423
Where did I go wrong?
Thank you

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2020)
« on: August 04, 2020, 12:27:13 PM »
OK so if I understood correctly the volume of the ice has decreased by 5,587 km3 in July 2019 and by 6,010 km3 in 2020.

12,050-6,463 = 5,587 km3 in 2019.
12,530-6,520= 6,010 km3 in 2020

The trend for the end of August does not look very good to me.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 02, 2020, 07:38:35 PM »
 Réponse #4384 le: Aujourd'hui à 05:46:19 pm »
LikeCiter
Who knows, Extent region with red and yellow is more or less than the 2012 minimum?

Hello ArcticMelt2,
If you go to Nico's website, you click first on "Analysis" and then on "Past Ice Maps", and there you choose the year and month you want. You can then compare the years on the same date.

11
Science / Re: Beaufort Gyre Reversal and a Return to 1960's Level SIE
« on: July 31, 2020, 11:03:24 PM »
Quite right kassy, it is necessary to be rigorous and to respect the semantics and syntax. Otherwise the thought gets lost and you end up not knowing what you are talking about.

12
Science / Re: Beaufort Gyre Reversal and a Return to 1960's Level SIE
« on: July 31, 2020, 05:14:44 PM »
Hello Juan C Garcia, this is my first intervention on ASIF. I have decided to give up the crown of ASIF's oldest lurker ;). AbruptSLR had published this paper last year. It doesn't talk about BOE but it is nevertheless worrying. I hope it can help you. And if Bruce watches your updates every night before going to bed, I watch them every morning when I wake up.
ASIF is a wonderful place.  :)

quote:
"In a 2018 study, scientists have found that the amount of heat in the trapped warm layer in the Beaufort Gyre, a major Arctic Ocean circulation system north of Alaska, has doubled over the past 30 years. And, if the temperatures continue to spike, it could eventually spell trouble for the ice above."

https://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/feature/a-ticking-time-bomb-in-the-arctic/?fbclid=IwAR317B222eqL65aMwNhWkRlsYK00mAKtBDI0V2mirQWuGBMpsVD36nA_yVU

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