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Messages - Shared Humanity

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1
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 26, 2020, 03:00:46 PM »
So is the virus affected by seasons, after all? I noticed that waves seem to mostly happen or at least be strongest during winter, just like influenza. Europe and US in the northern hemisphere started out with a wave last winter that died down in spring, and now they see another wave as winter approaches again. Meanwhile in the southern hemisphere, countries like Brazil, Australia, South Africa, Chile, all had their peaks in summer (or winter for them), and now their waves have died down a lot.

To add to the 'indoors' argument, the viral envelope and internal nucleic acids are orders of magnitude more stable with every 10degC decrease in temperature. Meaning it just simply persists for longer when its cold outside

Interesting. Do you have a link to research?

2
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 25, 2020, 12:22:55 AM »
Walrus, Covid-19 spreads early in the infection cycle and people infected die weeks later. So what does it matter to the corona virus whether we live or die after a prolonged illness ? What matters more is  whether the virus mutates fast enough to evade or deter the efficacy of vaccines or immunity from a prior bout of Covid.

Seconded.

3
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 24, 2020, 09:34:50 PM »
And in exactly the same way, we won't ever know for sure if the virus was intentionally released by the GOP. I must admit I am impressed with the Trump's ability to shift the blame for his shambles to other countries.  It really makes one wonder what else he can get away with before this is all over.

Sorry for this nonsense, but the junk is just ludicrous.

With mink proving to be a transmission vector for the virus, it is possible that case one came from the weasel that camps out on top of Donald's head.  ;)

4
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 24, 2020, 02:29:56 PM »
In the U.S., the growth in daily new cases and daily deaths appear to be slowing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Here is hoping the next 5 weeks of holiday celebrations do not trigger an acceleration in growth rates.

5
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 23, 2020, 10:55:35 PM »
Quote
A string of positive Covid tests at Shanghai's Pudong airport has sparked mass testing of thousands of people amid reportedly chaotic scenes.

Shanghai has reported at least seven local cases since 9 November, mainly involving this group, following five months with no new infections.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55039627

If a cluster of 7 cases in 14 days causes chaotic mass testing...

What should be happening in US with well over 2 million cases in last 14 days?  :o

A lot of prayers?

I would pray but I think Gaia has had about enough of humans. I really don't blame her.

6
Antarctica / Re: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion
« on: November 22, 2020, 04:43:18 PM »
I think it was interesting to see (and follow) the behaviour of the last point of contact between the PIG and the SIS. Its resistance will determine the progress upstream of the damage zone.
Animation based on the images of 11/11 and 21/11

Click to animate

Not going to be able to hang on much longer, me thinks.

7
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 21, 2020, 03:19:20 PM »
Hospitals Know What’s Coming
https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/617156/

“We are on an absolutely catastrophic path,” said a COVID-19 doctor at America’s best-prepared hospital.


And this link to an article that gives a clear, if personally upsetting, picture of conditions on the ground has been posted by someone who has been described by another frequent commenter as a "useful idiot".

I would like to thank you for your postings. It has actually become my best source of "on the ground" news and recent research. I read everything you post on this thread and am better informed as a result.

8
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 21, 2020, 01:31:51 PM »
Quote
a friendly edit...we could be at 3000 deaths per day by late December...won't fall below 1000 per day until February at the earliest...
Why then, SH? Biden in power? Herd immunity? Passage of winter?

...the cruel teacher that is mass death and the destruction that lies in its wake...I have maintained for a long time that Mom has to die (or Dad) in large numbers in rural America before the Republican base wakes up from the hypnotic state or slumber that has been induced by the charlatans that lead their party...

...there is, of course, the disturbing possibility that the Republican base hates their parents...it certainly cannot be they want to get their hands on the inheritance which consists, in most cases, of a broken down pickup truck and that used washing machine...

9
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 21, 2020, 01:23:15 PM »
Looking at Gero's chart above, and considering hospitalizations, ICU and deaths all lag cases by one to several weeks, it would appear that these dark weeks ahead are already baked in and inescapable.

Indeed. This is likely the worst of this virus and there is not much that can be done now. It's too late. Then, the vaccine will solve the problem but that won't save those many thousands who will perish in the next few weeks

...that won't save those many tens of thousands who will perish in the next few weeks months...


a friendly edit...we could be at 3000 deaths per day by late December...won't fall below 1000 per day until February at the earliest...our only real hope is that the tens of thousands dying across the country (not just in Democratic cities) are providing a horrific yet necessary lesson to rural Americans who have been listening to our President for too long.

10
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: November 21, 2020, 01:16:47 PM »
One of the new discoveries was a field of sea bottom craters in the shallow part of the Laptev Sea, some of them 30 metres (98 ft) in diameter.

‘They look like holes in the permafrost and, as our studies showed, they were formed by massive methane discharge.



I believe these are the sea based equivalent of the craters forming on the Yamal Penninsula.

I can give no informed opinion on the issue of a methane bomb but there is no question that the permafrost is melting which is releasing more methane.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 21, 2020, 01:10:07 PM »
Thank you for the timely updates...sipping coffee as I read them.

12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 21, 2020, 02:01:43 AM »
Looking at Gero's chart above, and considering hospitalizations, ICU and deaths all lag cases by one to several weeks, it would appear that these dark weeks ahead are already baked in and inescapable.

Sadly, I agree. These are going to be very depressing holidays for many American families.

13
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 20, 2020, 06:44:59 PM »
One out of every 1280 Americans has now died of COVID. We should expect it to be at least one out of 800 Americans by the end of January.

So...much...winning...

14
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 20, 2020, 01:24:22 PM »
Taiwan (population 23 million, deaths to date 7)

Message from family friend who moved to Taiwan 3 months ago.

'We are leading "normal" lives. The kids attend school. We eat at restaurants and ride public transportation. There are protocols and NO ONE yells about masks, tracing or quarantine (we were under strict quarantine for 14 days following arrival).'

Lesson #1: If you are planning to have a pandemic, try not to have your country led by a psychopath.

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 20, 2020, 12:54:55 PM »
Unfortunately, new cases in the U.S. are not stabilizing. We now have out of control community transmission across most of the country. Testing is inadequate (some states have positivity rates in excess of 40%) and contact tracing is impossible under these conditions. This situation will not improve significantly as there is insufficient will to impose rigorous lockdowns which is the only effective approach to get it under control. Likely 400,000 dead by the end of January, possibly much more as the next 6 weeks of holidays will promote rapid transmission through extended families.

"Let's go kill grandma."

The U.S. will become the primary case study on how not to address a pandemic.

16
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 20, 2020, 12:29:40 PM »
Natural deletions in the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein drive antibody escape
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.19.389916v1.full.pdf

Abstract
Zoonotic pandemics follow the spillover of animal viruses into highly susceptible human populations. Often, pandemics wane, becoming endemic pathogens. Sustained circulation requires evasion of protective immunity elicited by previous infections. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 has initiated a global pandemic. Since coronaviruses have a lower substitution rate than other RNA viruses this gave hope that spike glycoprotein is an antigenically stable vaccine target. However, we describe an evolutionary pattern of recurrent deletions at four antigenic sites in the spike glycoprotein. Deletions abolish binding of a reported neutralizing antibody. Circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants are continually exploring genetic and antigenic space via deletion in individual patients and at global scales. In viruses where substitutions are relatively infrequent, deletions represent a mechanism to drive rapid evolution, potentially promoting antigenic drift.



Covid-19 mink variants discovered in humans in seven countries
https://theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/18/covid-19-mink-variants-discovered-in-humans-in-seven-countries

Denmark, the Netherlands, South Africa, Switzerland, the Faroe Islands, Russia and the US have all reported cases of mink-related mutations.

Until now there had been no widespread reports of mink variants in humans outside Denmark. But scientists uploading virus sequencing and variant information to Gisaid, a global database initiative, said there have been signs of the mink variants around the world.

Not what I wanted to read this morning.

17
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 20, 2020, 12:20:50 PM »
Quote
Quick Quiz: Name a famous over-65 senior who could unleash 2000 nuclear weapons in seconds and who just had a bout of COVID and who's also exhibiting confusion, impaired consciousness, disorientation, lack of attention, agitation, and other cognitive problems
Trump, certainly. But also Putin who of course does not have covid ( https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8965073/Kremlin-denies-Putin-health-problems-coughing-fit.html ). And in a couple months Biden, another senior citizen, will have the red button under his finger. Mental problems, like other long term problems of covid, are more likely with age and all three are long in the tooth.

But Biden, comparatively, is in much better health. He also is not a psychopath.

18
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 20, 2020, 01:18:54 AM »
One can debate the reasons why people who were witnessing first-hand the results of President Trump’s manifestly incompetent and self-indulgent catastrophically leadership in the eight months prior to Election Day that the coronavirus was worsening continued to support him. (One South Dakota nurse reports that even as they lie dying in the hospital from Covid infections, some are denying that it is a “real” disease!) That is a matter for political scientists and psychologists. But the facts on the ground are undeniable. Following Trumpian anti-science tweets is deadly for people and is devastating the economy too.


While I am in no way capable of performing the research, I suspect that stupidity/ignorance is more highly correlated with infection rates than is obesity although stupid and fat can be lethal.

19
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 20, 2020, 12:49:06 AM »
By mid-January, the IHME model predicts more than 2,100 Americans could be dying daily.


Hah! The U.S. recorded 1971 deaths yesterday and have 1833 deaths so far today. We are going to blow past 2100 per day by mid December.

20
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 18, 2020, 02:09:10 PM »

They have no fat people. So maybe obesity is worse than age re: death. EU and US are pretty much equal.

I had another sexy time tonight! Oh boy. I wonder if all the sexy time in Japan and SK is how they stay fit and why they don't have COVID.

How does obesity affect the rate of transmission and case numbers? South Korea has 29,311 confirmed cases to date. The U.S. has had over 11 million in the same time frame. Hell, the U.S. had 157,261 new confirmed cases yesterday, over five times the total that South Korea has had during the entire pandemic. If that is not failure, I don't know what is.

21
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 18, 2020, 12:15:21 AM »

On 9/11, if you killed 3000 citizens you were labeled a terrorist; now you're called a Republican governor.

 ;D :-[ >:(

22
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 18, 2020, 12:10:41 AM »

They did not beat the virus, they have state-controlled media and everything is covered up, and useful idiots in these threads like vox_mundi spread their propaganda.

You really can't help yourself can you? The point could have been made about China without attacking a frequent commenter on this site.

23
That isn't just less snow. That appears to be dramatically shrinking ice caps as well.

24
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 16, 2020, 07:50:57 PM »
SARS-CoV-2 Exits Cells Via Lysosomes

A study finds that β-coronaviruses don’t use the normal secretory pathway, a possible explanation for some aspects of COVID-19 pathology.

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/sars-cov-2-exits-cells-via-lysosomes-68153

25
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 16, 2020, 06:27:34 PM »
I took a rare trip to the restaurant for lunch. Went to the Fresh Start Diner.
Their cook had been exposed, and they were closed pending his test.
So I went to The Original Steak and Hoagies.
They made me leave with my order...can't dine in anymore.

The mayor of Chicago just issued a new advisory that went into effect today. "No Household guests for the next 8 weeks." This includes Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays and applies to family.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 16, 2020, 01:49:51 PM »
Today's a warm day on the Atlantic Front

Must be coming with some high winds too.

27
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 14, 2020, 03:26:08 PM »
Just to mention that the reglaciation issue is not to be mentioned or discussed, or goaded.  It is wrong and does not need discussion (except in one designated thread which did not find much interest).

Its dangerous to say that is it "wrong". In the 60s, if you mentioned "global warming" youd have been told you were wrong.

I understand its banned because it is pretty wild, but that doesnt mean its wrong.

OK. It's just unsupported completely by any relevant science.

28
SH, The description at the top of the chart is talking trillions but the y axis is labeled “ millions  “ ?

It is confusing the way it is labeled. If you look at the label at the bottom of the chart, it is total assets in millions of dollars. So the y axis is 6 or 7 millions of millions or 7 trillion.

Here is link to chart.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

29
Re: Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and the total in these securites is larger than the residential equivalent in 2008

Cite ?

sidd

Trying to but I may have been talking out of my ass.  :-[


Total MBS chart as of 2019...The market for MBS products has grown from $9.467 trillion in 2008 to $10.308 trillion in 2019.

https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/fixed-income-chart/

Data on RMBS from 2008 crisis...Of the $9.467 trillion of MBS securities in 2008, $5.22 trillion or 55% was residential MBS and this was the product that triggered the financial crisis.

https://bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/research-summary/mortgage-backed-securities-and-the-financial-crisis-of-2008-a-post-mortem/

Can't seem to find data that supports my claim that CMBS is larger now than RMBS was in 2008 (I'll keep trying) but the MBS market in total is definitely being impacted by COVID.

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/coronavirus-jolts-cmbs-pricing-and-2020-issuance-expectations-57965361

And the MBS market hasn't collapsed like it did in 2008 because the Feds started buying this shit and now owns $2 trillion or 20% of the marketable MBS.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm

In fact, the Feds went all in on the markets in March of this year as can be seen in the chart below. What needs to be understood is that, prior to 2008, the Feds had never held any assets long term. They did purchase and sell treasuries overnight in order to provide needed liquidity in the Repo market. A functioning Repo market is essential to provide liquidity to banks.

I will restate my position made earlier. The world economy has never recovered from the debt crisis of 2008. Debt has, in fact, grown dramatically since then.




30
Shared Humanity, you linked household debt for state and local government debt.
And what about liabilities of 150+ trillion dollars?

Whoops!

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11502#:~:text=Federal%20Reserve%20data%20indicate%20that,%243.05%20trillion%20in%20outstanding%20debt.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 13, 2020, 02:25:52 PM »
I come here every day to look at these charts...don't comment much here anymore...likely won't ever again but this thread and the melting and freezing season threads will have me as a regular visitor...keep up the good work.

33
"A surge in spending to mitigate the health and economic impacts of the pandemic has brought the total public debt in the United States to over 100 percent of GDP—its highest level since 1946..."

And what happened with the US economy in the following 20 years? Disaster? Or one of the largest economic expansions in history?

Maybe this means that debt is the best thing you can do for a nations economy?

Government debt is a very small part of the global debt crisis. We have zombie companies in this country that can no longer service the debt they have. They are being kept afloat by easy money and the U.S. government has begun to purchase corporate debt because private investors don't want it. Consumer debt is far higher today than it was leading into the mortgage crisis that nearly collapsed the world economy. Remember mortgaged backed securities? The banks are now packaging up Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) and the total in these securites is larger than the residential equivalent in 2008. Wonder how that will go with the collapse in the commercial real estate market.

34
To provide context to the recent posts, worldwide capitalism has been in a debt crisis since 2008 and has only narrowly avoided disaster as national banks flooded the system with liquidity. This excess liquidity has remained in place since as any efforts to reduce it has threatened collapse. The pandemic has only served to expose the current crisis and worsen it.

What does an individual do in a debt crisis? Stay out of debt, accumulate cash, wait for the inevitable collapse in the price of assets and then scoop them up for pennies on the dollar.

35
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 05, 2020, 02:48:23 PM »
The September--October state of affairs (schools, workplaces open, maskwearing, some self-restriction, some ban on mass events) led to an R of 1,2-1,5 in the NH quite uniformly.

Can't speak for the northern hemisphere but this is certainly not the case in the U.S.

Widespread, uncontrolled, community transmission is occurring across the country. Some states have positivity test rates over 30% as the overall number of tests performed continues to decline. Hospitals and ICU's are filling rapidly and some states are preparing to implement triage procedures. Who gets care and who doesn't. Daily case numbers have risen from 40,000 to 100,000 over the last 2 months. Deaths are rising and should reach 1000 per day in a couple of weeks. Our best epidemiologists are warning of an impending disaster. Without concerted, nationwide effort, Dr. Fauci expects us to be averaging 2000 deaths per day by the end of January.

Contact tracing in the worst states is almost nonexistent. States are instituting futile and unenforceable travel bans to neighboring states, requiring by law that returning residents self quarantine for 14 days or face stiff fines. States are reintroducing business closures. A large percent of Americans (40%) have now firmly accepted the current administration's position that masks do not work and refuse to wear them. Isolated attacks on mask wearers and businesses that try to enforce mask wearing in their business continue to be reported in the news.

We are a stupid nation. led my an ignorant administration and will suffer a great deal as a result.

36
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 05, 2020, 02:43:58 AM »
Denmark to cull up to 17 million mink amid coronavirus fears

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54818615

"As many as 17 million minks are to be culled in Denmark after a mutated version of the coronavirus that can spread to humans was detected on mink farms."

37
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 04, 2020, 03:06:06 AM »
<Off Topic. kassy>

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: November 03, 2020, 04:39:22 PM »
Awesome uniquorn! Really cool watching the temps as the buoys move.

39
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:41:58 AM »
Top Trump adviser bluntly contradicts president on covid-19 threat, urging all-out response

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/02/deborah-birx-covid-trump/

“This is not about lockdowns … It’s about an aggressive balanced approach that is not being implemented,’ says internal White House report that challenges many of Trump’s pronouncements.

40
The rest / Re: Masks
« on: November 03, 2020, 02:24:15 AM »
I've decided to start smoking again.

41
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: November 03, 2020, 12:31:32 AM »
Most of the evidence refutes this assertion. The largest summer outbreaks were in southern cities while most of the BLM protests were in northern cities. People heading inside to seek relief from the summer heat across the southern tier of the US is likely more responsible for the summer wave.

And it was a hot summer.

42
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 31, 2020, 06:56:51 PM »
I would also like to add that when I was stuck in my apartment for 50 days and posted here saying I was leaving for walks etc, Shared Humanity said I was basically an idiot, putting people at risk of death, should stay indoors, was volunteering myself for the COVID trials.

Can you imagine me telling other people on this board that they should never leave the house again, and it being tolerated? Actually goading someone into depression and mental health issues, and not being held accountable for it AT ALL?

I will say it was extremely traumatizing living through this experience in NYC. And after it was clearly finished, I still had people like SH telling me I was an idiot, and should stay indoors forever, which is basically saying I should kill myself because what is the point of living if that is all you can do? That is JAIL.

Yet this is forgotten and he is allowed to post freely and I am not. Not only has he personally attacked me through this entire thread, all of his attacks have been WRONG, and he has never been held accountable for anything, and he is still allowed to post misinformation.

PS: NYC had 35K excess deaths, London had 32K deaths with a population of 8 million due to Blitzkrieg in 1940-41. This was a Biological Blitzkrieg and had a death toll almost exactly comparable on a per capita basis. And as a survivor of this Blitzkrieg I think the actions of SH on this Forum and his attitude towards myself and my return to normal life are morally reprehensible.

I do not understand your need to make it personal.

NYC screwed up big time early. It did not help they were ground zero in the U.S. I was complimenting the city for getting it right now. I don't doubt this has a great deal to do with how painful the lesson was. It did not help that the current administration decided to do nothing since it was blue cities that were getting hit.

The rest of the country could learn from you guys.

43
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 31, 2020, 02:15:35 PM »
COVID is spreading rapidly in the U.S. Too bad we are not all doing what NYC is doing to control the spread. Their website is very informative.

https://www1.nyc.gov/site/coronavirus/index.page

COVID-19 continues to spread in New York City (NYC) with concerning increases in community transmission in certain neighborhoods. NYC is taking action by implementing restrictions in three zones identified by the State — red, orange, yellow. Find out if you are in a Covid-19 Hotspot Zone.

Red Zone

Schools:All New York City public schools and nonpublic schools must close and return to full remote learning.

Businesses: All nonessential businesses are required to close. Only essential businesses as designated by New York State Empire State Development Corporation can remain open.

Food Service Establishments: Restaurants, bars, cafes and other food service establishments can provide takeout and delivery service only. No indoor or outdoor dining is allowed.

Houses of Worship: Houses of worship may remain open at 25% capacity, up to a maximum of 10 people, whichever is fewer.

Gatherings: Non-essential gatherings of any size are prohibited and must be postponed or cancelled. Any individual who encourages, promotes or organizes mass gatherings may be fined up to $15,000/day.


Orange Zones and Yellow Zones have rules as well and testing is rigorous to identify neighborhoods where community transmission is occurring. I would argue that NYC is engaged in "Best Practices" with regard to controlling transmission, at least best practices for a western democracy where welding doors shut on apartment complexes would cause a bit of a problem.  8)

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 31, 2020, 02:03:07 PM »
Here we are in the middle of an incredible ongoing open water anomaly event on the Siberian side and we can only muster 5-6 people out of 1783 members to contribute anything. A cargo cult has developed.

I come here every day to follow what is going on and will contribute if I have something I think is worth contributing. I suspect that there are others like me. I enjoy your informative posts.

45
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 30, 2020, 12:58:31 PM »
From what I've seen from typical coronavirus vaccines, that protection can last up to 5 years.


Has a vaccine for any coronavirus ever been developed? I don't think so but I could be wrong. Certainly not for those that cause colds.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/types.html

Did they develop a vaccine for MERS-CoV or SARS-CoV?

46
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 29, 2020, 03:23:05 PM »

47
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 29, 2020, 02:48:04 PM »
Quote
The polio epidemic was much worse. Those cases were real cases of illness, not like many of the asymptomatic positive tests now. The dead were mostly young people, not mostly frail 80+ like now. Paralysis left many young people in wheel chairs.

Wow - so if elderly die, rather than children it's "not as bad"?

This virus is "worse" than polio, mostly because its more infectious and spread in the air.  The long term disability is similar to polio, actually.  There's brain damage, kidney damage, long term heart damage, and lung damage.

Comparable outcomes to polio, with a considerably higher infectivity rate and air spread.

You're totally mistaken.

Many people here refuse to read the research that is posted here. Approximately 5% of those who contract COVID require hospitalization.
 
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

Several studies show that 20% of those hospitalized suffer heart damage.

The U.S. has had over 9 million confirmed cases. The math is simple.That's 90,000 Americans who have recovered but suffered heart damage. I would look at kidney damage but I understand it would have absolutely no impact on those here who believe we should just get on with our lives. Also, it would just depress me.

Here is the thing. A lot of Americans are informed about the science. If those who argue the economy should be opened wide up got their way, restaurants, bars and theaters would still be empty. You can't force people to risk their lives for a decent Italian dinner at the local restaurant when they know they are putting their lives and health at risk.

48
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 29, 2020, 02:11:45 PM »
A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

Quote
The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure

Thank you for this link. Very informative and helps us understand what we need to do to reduce the risk of infection and eliminate super spreader events.

Would like to mention that nothing in this article suggests any politicization of the pandemic. This is where politicians step into the conversation.

49
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: October 29, 2020, 02:00:00 PM »
Piet talks like an under-30 to me.
60, actually.

MERS and SARS 1 are not the same as the common cold. COVID isn't either. COVID is demonstrating it is a vascular disease with likely long term health consequences for those who recover. Please follow the science.
There have been other viruses with serious sequelae. The virus of Awakings (movie, book by Oliver Sachs). The virus that caused ME/CFS in the '50-s. Polio and the post-polio syndrome. Countries did not shut down for that for months on end, again and again, and to no avail.

Especially in the US, the whole thing is ridiculously politicized.

I expect that I won't be able to avoid getting exposed to the virus this winter. It is what it is.

I was born during the height of the polio crisis and vividly remember the mass vaccination program as a kid.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_polio#:~:text=From%201916%20onward%2C%20a%20polio,United%20Kingdom%20were%20also%20affected.

"In the United States, the 1952 polio epidemic was the worst outbreak in the nation's history, and is credited with heightening parents’ fears of the disease and focusing public awareness on the need for a vaccine. Of the 57,628 cases reported that year 3,145 died and 21,269 were left with mild to disabling paralysis."

Bad? Yes. As bad as this current pandemic? Not even close.

(Population was 152 million in 1950 if you would like to do a per capita comparison.)

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
« on: October 29, 2020, 01:50:55 PM »
Please focus only on actual data in this thread. Discussions of expectations for the rest of the season should take place in the season thread, or in the long term season predictions thread.

I'm sorry. I think I started it.

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