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Messages - Phil.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 5
1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018 melting season
« on: July 10, 2018, 05:18:51 PM »
Given the compactness figures 2018 is about 8% below last year, so without any further melting a reversion to last year's value would result in a drop of extent by ~500,000 km^2!  There's a lot that could still happen, the area drop in the Central Arctic which is ongoing causes me concern.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 10, 2018, 04:43:41 PM »
When extent goes up, and area goes down, area divided by extent (in other words, compactness) will inevitably go down. 2018 still lowest on record:

This suggests to me that the arctic is in a different state than previous years, perhaps more dispersed?
Significantly different from last year and lower than 2012, I wouldn't rule out some surprising changes later in the year.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 11, 2018, 06:03:08 PM »
<em> In total, area loss is still consistently ahead of area loss.</em>?????

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 09, 2018, 03:38:30 PM »
Thanks that's perfect.

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 09, 2018, 03:21:53 PM »
[ADS-NIPR-JAXA] ASI Extent.

May 8th, 2018: 12,077,941 km2, a drop of 37,551 km2.
2018 is the second lowest on record.
2018 has 295,775 km2 more than 2016 and 73,643 km2 less than 2006.

And with that 2004 loses its' last day in the top 3 for any day of the year. 2005 will stay in the list until Feb 6th when its sole day in the top 3 occurs.

2012 doesn't get a lowest 3 day until June 11th and if current trends continue 2018 will have more days in the lowest 3 by June 10th than 2012 has in the entire year.
I'm not clear exactly what you're plotting here, a figure legend would help.  Thanks.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 03, 2018, 09:44:03 PM »
"NSIDC Total Area as at 2nd April.(5 day trailing average)"

Don't you mean May?

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: March 04, 2018, 05:51:16 PM »
“At this very moment, the temperature in the high Arctic is at a wintertime record high.
Never in our recordkeeping has it been this warm between early November and late March -- in the midst of 24-hour Arctic night. ”
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/967114799627763712

“Wow... truly a remarkable event ongoing right now in the #Arctic.
Current temperatures well above previous years in February (>80°N latitude)! Average temperature is the bright blue line   http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/  “

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/967112763033047040
Image below.

This graph made it onto a piece on CNN this morning!

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 20, 2018, 01:06:16 AM »
A 2018 edition of the graph I put out a few times last year. The black dots are the maxima for previous years (timing and extent); the grey area is the extent range for each day. I'll update from time to time to the end of March.


(PS I've changed my pseudonym from deeenngee to Hautbois. A bit less cumbersome, if a bit more pretentious!)

Interesting is the range 2sd or something else?
I don't think using the name of a musical instrument is pretentious at all!

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: February 20, 2018, 12:58:07 AM »
Here are 278 days of ice movement in the interior CAA channels, from May 15th to Feb 18th. Summer months might benefit from a mask for daily open water to avoid artifacts brought by passing weather, available from AMSR2 at 3.125 km resolution. However the benefit is somewhat offset in narrow channels where some pixels would have a foot in island, ice and water.

CAs have suggested up-forum that this lower latitude ice will melt out sooner than the Arctic Ocean proper and that resulting seasonally open channels will then facilitate accelerated ice export way beyond what we see today. That idea has merit and should be added to the long list of model defects (can't upload, exceeds forum limits) that understate the demise of Arctic sea ice.

Note that surges in pack ice are already visibly transmitted to CAA interior channels. When channel back pressure has melted off, MYI export volume may well exceed both the Nares and Fram under persistent wind conditions like those of the last several weeks.

Looking at the Sentinel images it looks like the ice is broken up all the way from the entrance of the Nares strait round to Fram?  That seems unusual, with the right wind in the summer could we see a passage north of Greenland?  In any case that ice that's going down the Nares is some of the thickest, which isn't good.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 10, 2018, 04:34:25 AM »
Definitely if you can get in the jet stream uses a lot less fuel and saves time, similarly if flying from London to NY you'd want to avoid it.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« on: January 02, 2018, 04:27:36 PM »
Yes, but I forgot about NSIDC.  ;)

That seems to have been rectified since I have been unable to access Chartic in 2018!  ;)
Happy New Year 

13
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: November 10, 2017, 02:43:14 PM »
As I recall from the summer the region where the red one is was an eddy.  We had a floe that everyone was interested in which travelled very rapidly until it reached there then got held up for quite a long time.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October, mid month update)
« on: October 25, 2017, 03:16:58 PM »


It doesn't seem to have a date linked so I am not sure how recent this is.... anyone have the text?



http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL074506/full

Its paywalled so I can't be sure what the article itself says, but it looks like a journalist has misunderstood the abstract and has got the story wrong.

The abstract says taking salinity into account could reduce error in Cryosat thickness by up to 25%, which is not the same thing at all as it being overestimated by up to 25%.

The abstract states that the salinity causes an increase in thickness of ~7cm.
From the conclusions of the paper:
<em>"Our corrected FYI thickness estimates using the snow salinity correction factor demonstrate reductions in CS-2 relative errors. The reductions are considerable at FYI thicknesses <1 m. At 0.95 m, the relative error reduces by ~11% and at 0.7 m the error reduces by ~25%. These reductions also help to close the uncertainty gap between SMOS and CS-2 thin ice thickness retrievals by 0.25 m. We find that current retrieval methods are likely more suited to very cold, low snow salinity FYI, which limits their scope. We also find that FYI with warm, highly saline snow has the potential to produce the highest retrieval errors. To increase confidence in CS-2 error analyses in all seasons, subsequent research should focus on using in situ FYI thickness data for validation, to quantify the error objectively. With the recent and rapid decline of MYI, and its replacement by FYI, the role of snow salinity should be considered whenever FYI freeboard is estimated using CryoSat-2 on local to pan-Arctic scales."</em>

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Hurricane energy and Arctic sea ice
« on: September 15, 2017, 01:43:49 PM »
It'll be interesting to see what happens in a couple of weeks time as it looks like the remnants of hurricane Jose is projected to be heading into the arctic by then.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 31, 2017, 01:48:34 PM »
Crystal Serenity is now trailing in the wake of two icebreakers:


Heading for the open water?

Looks like their journey has mainly been in open water, it looks like they're going to head through the Bellott Strait next, not much ice en route.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 29, 2017, 04:57:46 AM »

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 23, 2017, 09:31:53 PM »
C3 is now at Gjoa Havn

https://canadac3.ca/en/expedition/live-feed/

It was rather different in 1905 when Amundsen left the ice.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 18, 2017, 08:25:52 PM »
There appears to be some confusion as to what Serenity may encounter in Larsen Sound. Note in the above ice chart area B is 7/10 Old ice, and now in the chart below, that area (now C) has been changed to 7/10 First-year... Something not right about that!

Looking at the weather forecast for Talyoak for the next week they expect highs of 60+ and clear sunny weather so maybe we'll see some significant changes.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 10, 2017, 10:23:48 PM »

Scroll up Phil:

Quote
The four-stroke Wärtsilä 50DF engines, which run on LNG and light or heavy fuel oils, deliver a total power output of 64.35MW.

The spec. in the link says it's a diesel engine.  Further reading says that the fuel oil is supplemented with LNG boil-off, so it uses both.  :-)
As I understand it the engines are usually run with between 15 and 85% gas.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 10, 2017, 07:03:00 PM »
I is  confused. Are these 15 ships carrying LNG or using LNG as fuel or both.
"I want to know!"

Carrying LNG.

ARCTIC LNG CARRIER FOR THE YAMAL LNG PROJECT
Length:   299 metres
Width:   50 metres
Draught (Loading):   11.8 metres
Capacity and type of propulsion system:   3х15 megawatts, diesel-electric ship with three rudder propellers
Ice-breaking capability:   Up to 2.1 m in floe ice when navigating stern-first

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: August 10, 2017, 06:19:40 PM »
In terms of the Northern Sea route being open to these ships according to Yamal operations from Sabetta will be year round with the East route being utilized from July to December, The full fleet of 15 will be in operation by the end of 2020, which is a lot of LNG.


http://www.scf-group.ru/en/fleet/business_scope/projects/item1658.html


Is LNG the most "environmentally friendly" of the three fuels it can use?


The link says it uses diesel.

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: August 09, 2017, 09:14:50 PM »
Looks like Bellot strait will be the way to go this year.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 28, 2017, 03:17:01 AM »
I assume the PAC has some part in this. What was, originally, a very compact and homogenous Beaufort is being torn to shreds and sent out to melt in warmer waters.

Whilst this, in itself, is not a single major factor, it seems that 2017 has been characterised with a head start and multiple small pushes to keep it on track.

Looking at Barrow it's currently about 15ºF above average and expected to stay in that range for about three more days so i'd expect some significantly warming water up there.  Offshore winds too.

25
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 25, 2017, 04:13:27 PM »
Seems to be good flow of ice through the Nares still looking at latest Modis images.  Also the surface ice downstream of the Pietermann glacier has fractured and moved down the channel.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 14, 2017, 03:22:22 AM »
I wonder what a 'fluid dynamics' knowledgeable person would say about those pretty swirls, and especially their opinion about any vertical mixing associated with them.

Looks a bit like a von Karman vortex street.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/113

27
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 07, 2017, 09:32:17 PM »
The North end of the Nares strait is now crammed with mobile ice it'll be interesting to see how fast it moves through.

28
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: July 04, 2017, 01:39:45 PM »
"Balanced"?  Viewing successive EOSDIS Worldview images (from June 21), the Bell Floe has moved at least 15 km each day until yesterday (between June 28 and 29 [video below]) when one corner of it moved only a few km (northward).  With wind out of the north (per Windytv's now-cast, at least), this northward movement of the floe would be due to the gyre.  Smaller floes in the area aren't moving much.  (There are a few quite small floes (bergs?) near the lower right corner of this animation that don't move, including a "" shaped one.) [Bell Floe is about 15 km wide.]
Judging by the latest Sentinel image the Bell Floe has broken up somewhat.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kane/20170703s01b.ASAR.jpg

29
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 30, 2017, 05:44:13 PM »
I also like the white fringe along the [would-be] 'open' edge of the bell on the Sentinel images.

Given the 'Bell Floe' is in Kane Basin and has wandered away from the Elsmere coast, it is liable to get caught up in the Kane Basin Gyre and remain there awhile.

It's actually been balanced on a cluster of floes stuck on the Greenland side for a couple of days at 79º30' N 70ºW.  Looks like a good puff of wind would shift it though.

30
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 26, 2017, 01:35:28 PM »
Looks pretty intact, lucky floe!  By the way:  thanks Clenchie and Phil for watching.

(The floes actively approaching Nares Strait in the Lincoln Sea are all pretty small already.  The largest floes in the Lincoln Sea are hugging the Greenland coast and appear to be (temporarily) frozen in place.)

That floe has now made it unscathed past the two islands now. It seems that the ice near the entrance to the strait in the Lincoln sea has broken up into fairly small fragments compared with a week or so ago.

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017173074500-2017173075000.250m.jpg

It is surprising how fast such a large floe can proceed down the channel.

Indeed, the fragment we were talking about is now about 55 miles south of Franklin Island.

The distinctive shape makes it easy to track.  Hopefully it is thick enough to remain intact and survive for another winter, currents allowing.

Now it's about 83 miles south of Franklin.

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 24, 2017, 06:44:54 PM »
I would guess that this (your animated graphs) shed light to us "ASIF Lurkers" ond others on how gigantic areas of the Arctic ice just suddenly vanish when the heat eventually gets through from top or bottom.

I don't think that you'll find that the floe on which 2017A is sitting is going to "suddenly vanish" any time soon. Once the blue line has risen completely above the dotted red line is when bottom melt can begin in earnest. Melting away to nothing takes a lot longer.

Not quite sure why this is called 'bottom' melt?  According to the plot for 17A the ice above 25cm is above the melting point and so should be melting now, the deeper ice is still below the melting point.  The ice is getting warmer from above, soon we'd expect to get a profile without a minimum and ice at all depths will be melting but fastest at the surface.

32
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 24, 2017, 06:29:50 PM »
Looks pretty intact, lucky floe!  By the way:  thanks Clenchie and Phil for watching.

(The floes actively approaching Nares Strait in the Lincoln Sea are all pretty small already.  The largest floes in the Lincoln Sea are hugging the Greenland coast and appear to be (temporarily) frozen in place.)

That floe has now made it unscathed past the two islands now. It seems that the ice near the entrance to the strait in the Lincoln sea has broken up into fairly small fragments compared with a week or so ago.

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017173074500-2017173075000.250m.jpg

It is surprising how fast such a large floe can proceed down the channel.

Indeed, the fragment we were talking about is now about 55 miles south of Franklin Island.

33
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 22, 2017, 02:50:43 PM »
Looks pretty intact, lucky floe!  By the way:  thanks Clenchie and Phil for watching.

(The floes actively approaching Nares Strait in the Lincoln Sea are all pretty small already.  The largest floes in the Lincoln Sea are hugging the Greenland coast and appear to be (temporarily) frozen in place.)

That floe has now made it unscathed past the two islands now. It seems that the ice near the entrance to the strait in the Lincoln sea has broken up into fairly small fragments compared with a week or so ago.

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017173074500-2017173075000.250m.jpg

34
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 21, 2017, 04:49:11 PM »
We may know this afternoon (eastern North America time) how intact 'largish floe' remains after its (at least) close encounter with Hans Island.  (Yesterday's DMI Sentinel image annotated screen print of Kennedy Channel)

Right now it appears to be jammed up against the island but still intact according to MODIS.

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017172084000-2017172084500.250m.jpg

35
There has been tsunamis recorded from glacier calving before here's a paper on one:
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/10/995/2016/tc-10-995-2016.pdf

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: June 13, 2017, 01:26:09 AM »


As you can see, there are even less melt ponds than last year. In fact, it looks very similar to 2013. David Schröder wrote to me in an e-mail:


Looking at the Archipelago on MODIS today it looks very blue, is that not melt ponds?

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2017163181500-2017163182000.2km.jpg

37
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 28, 2017, 11:11:12 AM »
To get an idea how much ice has left the Lincoln sea into Nares strait, I have tracked some floes back to the 12th when they were at the position they had when the ice arch broke.

That's great Andreas, it really highlights how much is leaving.  Not much sign that it's going to stop any time soon.

38
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 27, 2017, 04:31:50 PM »
Now there is a steady 'river' of fragments flowing down the west side of the strait.

39
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 24, 2017, 03:18:30 AM »
A big polynya just opened up north of the entrance to Nares st, the ice there is becoming more and more fragmented.

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2017143201500-2017143202000.2km.jpg

40
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 21, 2017, 05:45:58 PM »
without offering any evidence I seem to remember that the western side of the straight is usually flowing faster than the eastern side, this made big chunk rotate so swiftly I  think. The odd thing is that it isn't drawn towards the west or does another rotation. Maybe the wind has an effect?

The block appears to have just developed a crack about two thirds of the way down, I expect we'll see more developments now.  The crack appears to have originated at the point of contact with the coast?

41
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 20, 2017, 10:53:28 PM »
As of today that temporary dam has broken and many more chunks of ice are entering the strait.

https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl1_143.A2017140180500-2017140181000.2km.jpg

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: May 20, 2017, 01:04:04 PM »
This may well be totally OT, but it definitely qualifies as a stupid question.


There is a name for a river valley carved during the breakup of an ice sheet. The sudden ice/water outflow causes a deeper, wider, U-shaped trough to be carved and there is a name for this type of valley. I live adjacent to one of these features and at one time the name of the feature rolled off my tongue as easily as the name of the river. Today alas, it's gone & it aggravates me no end. It's like running into someone at a party whose face you remember, but you're unable to recall the name.

Happens to me all the time.  :(
From my recollection of geomorphology many years ago the terms used were 'fluvial V-shaped valley' and 'glacial U-shaped valley'.



43
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: May 19, 2017, 05:12:14 PM »
"Big Chunk" moved about 4 km between May 17 and 18, while the "foot bridge" pieces moved about 85 km.  What will today bring? Winds, per windytv, are mildly contrary today (contrary for southward travel).  Currents favor export, winds favor stillness.

As of 11:15 UCT today it looks like three pieces have blocked the entrance (temporarily?), it'll be interesting to see what happens there.

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: May 14, 2017, 01:21:47 PM »
I keep wondering: will the debris from this breakup clog Nares Strait or will it just flush through? So far, it is flowing smoothly. Observe the 10th- 13th. CLICK IMAGE


Starting to move through this morning:
https://lance3.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2017134074000-2017134074500.250m.jpg

45
Arctic background / Re: Barneo 2017
« on: April 20, 2017, 04:21:01 PM »
Here's a longer first-person account of the bear incident:

http://translate.google.com/translate?u=http%3A//www.binsack.ch/90-north-100-commitment-die-ankunft-am-nordpol-am-12-april-2017-und-der-eisbaer&hl=en&langpair=auto|en&tbb=1&ie=UTF-8

From that account you'd think that a family pet had been shot, not a hungry predator.  It was apparently within 30m of them and still approaching them.  Under the protocol for workers near Barrow that would qualify as 'encounter imminent', and the recommended practice is as follows:
"If the bear’s approach is such that a serious immediate threat is perceived, a warning shot(s) may be fired by armed and authorized personnel to scare off or slow the advance of the bear while withdrawal proceeds.
If the bear either charges, or if it’s rate of advance despite the warning shot is such as to pose an immediate threat to any member of the work group (or any other human being), the armed personnel are to fire on the bear, aiming preferably between the shoulders. Avoid headshots as the polar bear’s skull can deflect the bullet. Once the bear is hit, keep firing until the bear is still. Try to kill the bear cleanly and quickly. A wounded bear is very dangerous."

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: April 01, 2017, 03:19:57 AM »
Nor this one

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/03/31/polar-bears-spotted-scotland-animals-flee-melting-arctic-ice/

But a few corpses appear to have been washed up on Britains beaches in the last year.

The famous Lirpa Loof rears its head.   :)
I wonder if it will get the same response as the Isle of San Seriffe?

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: March 29, 2017, 04:54:23 PM »
Can't we stick with standard units? It is 70 times the size of Wales.

rydw i'n cytuno

mi hefyd

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: What are you expecting to see this melt Season?
« on: February 15, 2017, 05:06:11 PM »
"Once a ship can sail to the north pole without encountering any sea ice, and once images of blue sea to the horizon are transmitted, I think the message will have been sent."

There is an additional dimension to this, as messaging. Most people don't grok the full Arctic story. So fully ice free vs 1 million km^2 is 'blah;. But an ice free north pole is visceral.

Simple message. 2017? The year Santa drowned?

Last August two research vessels moored next to a floe at the N Pole with plenty of open water behind them.  Had a pretty easy trip to get there too.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: February 10, 2017, 12:57:06 PM »
You may have a new friend in your ongoing battle against The Mail.

ROFL - She'll just have to join the queue! I'd like to think I've already got Geordie Greig by his dangly bits. I don't intend to let go even for the fragrant FLOTUS.

Apparently Wikipedia has dropped the Mail as a 'reliable source' and is in the process of editing a number of pages to reflect that.  Nothing to do with climate!
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/feb/08/wikipedia-bans-daily-mail-as-unreliable-source-for-website

"The editors described the arguments for a ban as “centred on the Daily Mail’s reputation for poor fact checking, sensationalism and flat-out fabrication”."

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: January 23, 2017, 01:42:46 PM »
If everything settled down and allowed some recovery time, sure. But the Bering Sea, where thicker ice is getting pushed to now, is going through a storm with mslp of 944 at one point today and the Barents has not really settled down for a while now. Even when there is no major storm around, there seems to be rough seas all the time. As seaicesailor pointed out there is another storm on the way in a couple days. HYCOM is forecasting  large amounts of ice being exported including thick ice, which there is little left of. There are streaks of low concentration already all over the place, including some in the Beaufort. There are actually leads in the ESS, where the water is not quite as cool as it needs to be. The Laptev has been infiltrated with warm water (see below). Hudson Bay looks terrible, along with everything in that general area. It will take a huge amount of FDD's to make a recovery. Sorry, as I don't mean to spoil anyone's day.


Just took a look at the Barrow radar animation for the last 10 days, it shows a lot of mobile ice heading west in the first half of the period.

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