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Messages - Tor Bejnar

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 17, 2018, 04:51:31 PM »
Re: Jim's FDD chart, earlier today.  I wonder if a graph of the rate of change of FDDs would show us when different years really differ.

2
Richard Alley's 2012 talk has some geological time temperature and CO2 graphs.  Look at minute 20 and 25, 31, 32, 35, 41 (and around those times, at least - I just skimmed this time).  The entire talk is worth watching!

3
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 16, 2018, 06:33:19 PM »
To catch some people up: Tate's Hell () ()

4
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 16, 2018, 05:19:05 PM »
I just noticed this:
The city of Tallahassee is proposing to shut down its hydroelectric generating station on the Ochlockonee River in favor of cheaper solar power.
...
The plant power costs $85 per megawatt hour to produce compared to $50 per megawatt hour for power from a solar project being built to serve city customers ...
Politico, 2017-07-20

5
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 14, 2018, 10:33:55 PM »
Linked is an animated map showing California offshore monthly average wind speed, with other resources at California Offshore Wind Energy Gateway. (I have no expertise, I just did an internet search.)  I know, this isn't hourly data!

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 14, 2018, 10:08:00 PM »
...
Note nothing we post here affects the ice outcomes one way or another ... previous words of wisdom from Oren.
What??!!  Are you guys saying all our 'hot air' has no effect?

7
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Poll: Nares Strait closure in 2018
« on: January 14, 2018, 10:01:38 PM »
Putting it off, eh, Neven?  ;)

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 14, 2018, 05:43:48 PM »
I watched a review of the Model 3 from November, and a big concern crept into my mind. 

My parents bought a Prius about 2005 and the glaring midday Southwestern (USA) sun made the screen frequently useless, so they formed a three-sided (thin) cardboard bonnet (think Amish or 18th century Quaker) that extended the shading about 15 cm (6"). 

The Model 3 screen appears to be virtually un-shadeable.  I imagine:  "Officer, I didn't know I was speeding because the sun-glare kept me from seeing the screen which shows how fast I'm going."

9
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Poll: Nares Strait closure in 2018
« on: January 14, 2018, 05:27:53 PM »
Thanks, oren, for sharing your concern.  I'm keeping the 3-day/6-day 'rule'.  I think it very possible  the only ice bridge we see this year will be the temporary sort (associated with a period of southern winds).  I recall watching short-lived bridges in both Kane Basin and above the Lincoln Sea Polyna form, only to have a piece of the edge peel off, then 'stick' for a couple days, then peel off some more.  (I looked for a list of closing dates, but didn't find one - I know I've seen one!)

By the way, I voted for a March bridge.  Interesting that the 15 votes are evenly spread between three bins.  (You can always vote to see where the distribution is, then remove your vote because voting in polls like this is beneath your dignity.   :P  )

10
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Poll: Nares Strait closure in 2018
« on: January 14, 2018, 05:06:30 AM »
No comments, but 8 votes, just in case you're the sort of person who doesn't want to visit a "nothing's happening" thread.   8)

11
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Poll: Nares Strait closure in 2018
« on: January 12, 2018, 09:51:28 PM »
Any bridge that 'counts' must have a leading edge that remains intact for at least 3 days within (and totally across) Nares Strait or 6 days within the Lincoln Sea.  If some downstream ice peels off (not including new fast ice), the date is re-set. (Some consider potentially stable ice north of the Lincoln Sea Polyna not to be an arch, but it will be considered to be one for this poll's purposes.)

The first day of bridge/arch formation determines the bridge's formation month.

A big thick ice floe that gets stuck for 3 days on an island (for example) counts if no ice can sneak around, etc.

A few 'old' posts that might assist you:
Nares Strait is often (always? in recent years) open at least into December (but I don't have the statistics).  In 2006-07, it never closed.  I understand that in other years no effective bridge formed, too.  Neven, in 2013, recommended The Broken Bridges of Nares for those who want to learn some history of Nares ice bridges.
Did some quick research about approx. breakup times, southern "arch" in Kane Basin unless noted otherwise:
2007 - No arches formed.
2008 - June 10th(?)
2009 - No southern arch. Northern arch broke around June 30th.
2010 - July 10th
2011 - July 5th.
2012 - June 30th.
2013 - July 10th.
2014 - June 20th.
2015 - July 5th.
2016 - June 30th
2017 - No southern arch. Northern arch broke around May 10th.
...
...
Although ice arches normally form by about April, I don't expect to see one form this year: the ice is too thin, weak, young and mobile.
For the last three days (2/2 - 4/2) the "arch" at the Lincoln Sea seems to be stationary. Will this stability prove to be long-lived? Past experience this month says no, the date says maybe yes.

I couldn't find a list of ice bridge formation dates.  Any help out there?

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: January 12, 2018, 07:11:36 PM »
Fox Business:
Battery technology allows 700-mile range on one-minute charge: Henrik Fisker

Jan. 09, 2018 - 2:52 - Fisker CEO Henrik Fisker on the company's electric car battery technology.

The video clip claimed "500" (not "700") miles on a one-minute charge in the not-too-distant future.  Currently, something like 150 miles on a nine-minute charge is available for a $129,000 (sticker price) car.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 06:57:30 PM »
Yuha's Handbrake mp4 (Reply #597) works for me, too.  (Thanks, developers!)

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 12, 2018, 06:47:33 PM »
Harpy,
I think you go to the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs (ASI Graphs) page and look at the several graphs made available there.  Included in the "Daily Graphs" tab are Arctic only graphs, Antarctic only graphs and global graphs, and many others. An ASIG link can be found at the top of every ASI Forum page ("Watch all Graphs on ASI Graphs").  Visitors should also, of course, regularly visit Neven's ASI Blog ("Read All About Arctic on ASI Blog").

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: January 12, 2018, 06:34:28 PM »
Thanks, Sleepy!
Totally cool depiction of the rolling floe.
And A-Team's geological parallel is now in context.  (I just wish it would take as long for the Arctic ice to melt as it will take for San Francisco to enter Canada.)

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: January 12, 2018, 02:17:54 PM »
Curious:  I could download and watch A-Team's "SoCalif_Tectonics (T Atwater).mp4" but not his "transverse range block rotation in CAA.mp4".  (I could also download the GIF.)

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 02:03:29 PM »
I can download A-Team's recent mp4 (at least at work), but Yuha's doesn't work for me directly or via download!

18
Arctic Background / Re: Importance of waves in the Arctic
« on: January 12, 2018, 01:58:04 PM »
cross post:
More recent gfs runs don't have ptype mixing to rain as deep over the Arctic as subgeometer's attachment above. However, this cyclone looks like it's still going to be very deep and cause extreme issues for Fram ice due to wave action:

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 12, 2018, 04:02:41 AM »
Both at home and at work I cannot watch mp4s due to lack of software.
(It didn't keep me from posting one, taken by a coworker's cell phone!)
Note: this is an image of a not working mp4, not a clickable icon.)

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 12, 2018, 03:54:40 AM »
Mesquite B-B-Q is quite popular in some circles, I've been told, and the wood oxidizing in your cooker isn't all that different from it oxidizing under the scorching sun (just faster).  (As kids, we'd spray paint mesquite screw beans and hang them on our Christmas tree.)
(image)

21
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 11, 2018, 09:10:15 PM »
from InciWeb
01-11-2018 Daily Update Thomas Fire
Incident: Thomas Fire Wildfire
Released: 3 hrs. ago
Thomas Fire Update
Goleta, Calif., January 11th, 2018 — For Immediate Release.
Start Date: December 4, 2017 Cause: Under Investigation Size: 281,893 acres
Containment: 92% Personnel: 13 Structures Destroyed: 1,063 Structures Damaged: 280
Current Situation: Due to high wind, some over flights were cancelled yesterday. The flights will resume today to assess the Thomas Fire. The incident commander will be on these over flights for an evaluation of the containment percentage.
...

I'm surprised they haven't changed the containment percentage, but note they will discern this today.  I note personnel is down to a bakers dozen.


22
Today, I'm curious about the suggested lineation within the red shape.  It shows on earlier images of Petermann Glacier, but is moderately pronounced in yesterday's Polar View image.

23
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: January 10, 2018, 09:45:03 PM »
"Move away from the threats, ... grown your own food, ... "
What, and get my nails dirty?   :D

"Voluntary and mandatory evacuations covered the vast majority of the flooded parts of Montecito"
Thanks for this info.

24
Consequences / Re: Floods
« on: January 10, 2018, 07:37:18 PM »
I wonder how many of the deaths occurred in evacuation zones.  I read somewhere that the heaviest rains weren't where they were expected.

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: January 09, 2018, 11:13:30 PM »
I was about to reiterate the article's comparison, but you beat me to it, numerobis  :)
The Tesla roof, apparently, has a 100+ year life whereas
Clay tile typically lasts 40 to 60 years, while slate and concrete tiles have a lifespan of 50 to 100 years.
(source)
But, who knows how long the solar panel part of the tiles will last - more expensive to replace than independent panels.

26
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 09, 2018, 04:42:56 PM »
'Bet the Thomas fire is out now!
From weather.com news:
The heaviest rain California's L.A. Basin has seen since last February, has triggered mudslides, rockslides, and debris flows over areas recently charred by destructive wildfires.
 
Parts of Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, near the Thomas fire burn area were particularly hard hit Tuesday morning. Up to waist-high mud flowed into parts of Montecito, California, according to Santa Barbara County fire spokesman Mike Eliason.

27
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: January 08, 2018, 09:42:25 PM »
Today's Polar View shows how much A-68A has moved since breaking off the Larsen C Shelf in July 2017 (about 35 km, net).  Obviously, it did not move in a straight line!  The 'little' icebergs (one with a purple dot) started out at the southern end of the ice island (link to July 16 post).

28
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: January 08, 2018, 05:00:41 PM »
Meanwhile, crude oil is going up in price, now over $60 for West Texas Intermediate:

29
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 07, 2018, 10:48:26 PM »
Thomas Fire
same area and % containment, but updated info.

from inciweb:

Current as of   1/6/2018, 9:09:54 P
Cause   Unknown
Date of Origin   Monday December 04th, 2017 approx. 06:35 AM
Location   Ojai, Santa Paula, Ventura, Montecito, Carpenteria, Santa Barbara, Fillmore
Incident Commander   California IMT3 IC Valencia
Current Situation
Total Personnel   326
Size   281,893 Acres
Percent of Perimeter Contained   92%
Estimated Containment Date   Saturday January 20th, 2018 approx. 12:00 AM

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 05, 2018, 07:43:07 PM »
Welcome to the posting world, Frosty.

31
Policy and solutions / Re: Poll: Relative importance of countermeasures
« on: January 04, 2018, 03:51:48 PM »
There is "most important" as in "smartest", and then there is "most important" as in what society actually does. 

Reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas (not just reducing net production), in my opinion, is our smartest way forward; this would include geoengineering (scrubbing CO2).  I fear that Earthlings (including the homo sapiens variety) will mostly attempt to adapt, but with widespread failure, will experience population reductions.

Therefore, I am not able to discern a “most important”!

32
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere snow cover
« on: January 03, 2018, 11:38:15 PM »
Interesting?
I call that depressing.

We tried to do our part: a few flakes of snow fell this morning here in Tallahassee!

33
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: January 03, 2018, 06:38:18 PM »
Courtesy of Google Translate:

snabbare, enklare, bättre = faster, easier, better
Långsammare, svårare, sämre = slower, harder, worse

34
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: January 03, 2018, 05:00:52 AM »
Thomas Fire in Southern California:
Goleta, Calif., January 2, 2018 — For Immediate Release.
Start Date: December 4, 2017 Cause: Under Investigation Size: 281,893 acres
Containment: 92% Personnel: 487 Structures Destroyed: 1,063 Structures Damaged: 280
source: inciweb

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« on: January 02, 2018, 07:47:47 PM »
From Jim Pettit's website, it looks like 11.9 is the December 31 JAXA SIE.


36
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: January 02, 2018, 07:09:25 PM »
... Nares export of the very thickest Lincoln Sea ice, late May/early June of 2017 ...
I'm delighted to see this animation, A-Team.  I knew 'at the time' that it was all mobilized.  Your gif (or whatever file type it is) shows that about half was actually exported. 

Like so much multi-year ice (MYI) across the Arctic, the remaining thick ice is highly fractured with interstitial first year ice (FYI).  Few, if any, of the remaining Lincoln Sea MYI hunks (separate floes last summer, but now 'welded' together with FYI) are large enough to form an ice bridge by themselves, should they continue to approach Nares Strait.  (Most of what is transported into Nares Strait is ice that formed west or northwest of the Lincoln Sea, and is less coherent than, and surely thinner than, the northeast Lincoln Sea ice that appears whiter than other ice in the gif.)

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« on: January 02, 2018, 04:20:09 AM »
It's official.  The lowest bin 'won', and the Earth lost out.  (30% of us guessed [or calculated] right this time.)
From JAXA: showing from just before this poll opened. (Click for an enlargement.)

Edit:  I suspect this isn't JAXA data after all.  gerontocrat's JAXA graph (at the beginning of this thread) shows 2016 crossing '12' earlier in December than this graph.  The VISHOP graph that I included doesn't actually say whose data is included.  See below...

38
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: January 02, 2018, 04:12:59 AM »
Cross post
Lincoln Sea and Nares Straight -Jan 1

39
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: January 01, 2018, 07:46:17 PM »
I've really appreciated your Monday updates, ASLR.  (And I'll work on 'hearing'/applying your plea on another thread.)

40
I guess they don't make windows like they did back in 2014.  (looking at Ottawa cold days)  I mean, that's like ancient history, right?

2018 will be here in about 40 minutes.  Cool with some very light rain this evening.  Forecast is for mid 20s (F) for four nights (followed by one with 29) starting Tuesday morning here in Tallahassee, (north Florida).  This might be the longest string of such temperatures since I arrived 20 years ago.  I hope it kills off some of the invasive plants!

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: January 01, 2018, 04:52:08 AM »
A-Teams 5.3K for 2/3rds of the year compares with my ~8-9K for 'winter' 1/4 yr. 

Reading what has been written above, I suggest we look at the 183 days (1/2 year) of 'functional winter' where the  DMI 80N green line (historic average) starting date and ending date have equal temperatures (vaguely day 293 to the next year's day 110).  I wonder what we might learn by comparing this evidence of 'Arctic amplification' with other evidence, such as FDDs (or FDD anomalies) and CAB ice volume.  (It appears that if the FDD anomalies chart started with day 110, the different years wouldn't show much deviation from the mean until after about day 240.  Of course, this is the period with the least recent difference between the DMI 80N green line and red line temperatures.)

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: December poll: IJIS maximum
« on: December 31, 2017, 03:49:02 PM »
I've gone down two bins as well, to '14 to 14.25 million', but I'm gambling on SIE not going below 14 million this year. I wish myself good luck.
Going down two bins is like wishing the Earth bad luck :'( 
Maybe not 'wishing' but being 'resigned to'  :'(  :-[ :'(

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017/2018 freezing season
« on: December 31, 2017, 03:44:53 PM »
The 8 or 9K average temperature 'step change' (eyeballed difference between current winter average and graph's average line) occurred at the end of December 2015 on the DMI 80N chart.  I don't recall anybody identifying a concurrent weather/climate change.  Did I miss the discussion or is this worthy of its own thread [maybe "DMI's 80N step change in winter temperatures" or "Step change in winter temperatures (e.g., DMI's 80N)"].  If so, someone with weather-cred should start such a thread, as they could better describe what appears to be happening ("climate" being '30-years' and we have 'two'.)

44
I searched for "freshwater hosing" and found the following:
Numerous modelling experiments have now been carried out in which freshwater is introduced into the ocean ('freshwater hosing').

This is the Google search result (screen print):

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 29, 2017, 05:52:32 PM »
...
Has to be American?  ...
That was just an example.  My wife, when replacing a Prius a couple years ago, would look at nothing but Priuses (I mean Prii!)

[I still drive our 2002 Prius.]

46
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 28, 2017, 09:37:53 PM »
I so agree.

47
Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: December 28, 2017, 06:02:15 PM »
...
Most people buy whatever meets their needs. I think most people weights factors like cost, performance, safety, handling, luxuries, and anything else they can imagine and purchase whatever they like. There is a huge market for good vehicles regardless of how the motors get their power.
...
I think:  "Most people weigh factors like cost, performance, safety, handling, luxuries, and anything else they can imagine" and then "purchase what they like." [not exact quotes] We only think those first 4 items have a strong influence.  Tradition ('Have to have a truck) and politics (Is it American?') are huge factors.

48
Should we just give up on a 1.5°C target?
I immediately came up with a poll idea: this question with the following possible options:
  • Yes, we should give up on a 1.5ºC target.  It is functionally unattainable.  It's gonna get hotter, at least.
  • I refuse to be openly pessimistic. Just saying.

I think 2ºC is functionally unattainable due to the tragedy of the commons theory.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent Ranking - end of 2017
« on: December 28, 2017, 04:41:24 PM »
Can I still change my vote?  ;) ;D
Given that you are an Administrator, I bet you can!

In other news, it's beginning to look like a first bin 'victory', which (if manifested) means most of the voters were 'too' conservative.  Are we growing up?

I, by the way, picked the 2nd bin (2017 ending in 3rd or 4th place) because that had (by the look of the graph) the biggest gap available (not including the 'less than previous 1st place' gap) and, when throwing darts, bigger targets are easier to hit.

50
Yesterday's PolarView (which I haven't viewed for a couple of months) shows a curving lineation on the western half of the glacier that I don't recall seeing before.  Given Thomas' gif from August, I wonder if the lineations I see (there might be quasi-parallel segments toward the west side of the red rectangle) represent the crack extending all the way across the glacier.  If it calves, it is huge, even yuge!

Post Script:  some of this lineation is identified by Thomas in his July 12 post above.  I can see some of my outlined lineation in Thomas' image extending beyond the lower red rectangle (my purple rectangle below, copied from Thomas' post).  Some of it looks like drainage topography in Thomas' image.

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