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Messages - Tor Bejnar

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Once again I'll show an image suggesting a connection between the mid-glacier crevasse and down-fjord side crevasses  I wonder how many of you think I'm "seeing things" (that aren't there) ...

Dec. 16 image from PolarView.

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: December 17, 2018, 06:11:58 PM »
A-68A has move about 20 km northward this past month.  I'm guessing it will escape the shoals near Bawden Ice Rise soon (if it hasn't already).

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 17, 2018, 05:43:02 PM »
And back down.

Consequences / Re: The Holocene Extinction
« on: December 16, 2018, 03:49:46 AM »
Snowball earth hasn't happened in a few billion years.
Plus or minus being a "true" snowball, the late Precambrian is sometimes considered to have hosted snowball Earth conditions about 650 million years ago - Wikipedia article.  A previous long-lived snowball earth happened 2.something billion (American billion) years ago.

Another one would doom human existence, but I don't expect the Holocene ever held any promise for such an extreme!

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 13, 2018, 02:49:03 AM »
By the just posted metric, HB made it to 75% cover about 12/10.  (This  is not the metric used by a poster about 5-6 weeks ago, concerning HB getting to 75% a month ago.)

The rest / Re: How Many Hours A Day Do You Sleep
« on: December 12, 2018, 02:30:34 AM »
Old age is terrible... except for the alternative...'
Please, God, not eternal youth.  Imagine having to repeat all those mistakes (yours for you, mine for me) over and over. "Groundhog Day" without ever learning anything.

I always slept about 8 hours a night as a kid, through college and having kids of my own'[sounds a little too much like slavery - I hope they don't think that] and until about 5 years ago, and now I get 6 or 7.  I blame my wife's insomnia, but that might just be an excuse.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 07, 2018, 08:53:48 PM »
The number of missing is down to 6, with no increase in deaths (85), per Wikipedia.
Camp Fire (Paradise, CA) Wikipedia update has good news:  death toll decreased! and number of missing way down.  Looks like fewer than 100 people were killed, all told.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 07, 2018, 05:05:39 PM »
Back up to $54 all ready.  My, my.

The rest / Re: Unsorted
« on: December 06, 2018, 05:44:53 PM »
from The Landslide Blog
The climate emergency (sometimes less well described as climate change) is very much in the news

GW, CC, now CE

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 06, 2018, 05:36:29 PM »
I noticed West Texas Intermediate was over $53 a day or two ago.  Back under $51.

Policy and solutions / Re: Coal
« on: December 06, 2018, 02:54:24 PM »
Weather Underground (Cat 6) has an article on coal.
Coal Fights for Life as UN Holds Climate Meeting in Poland’s Coal Country
  Bob Henson  ·   December 5, 2018, 4:25 PM EST

One little piece that jumped out at me (distressingly - emphasis added):
The oil giant BP estimated that coal use rose about 1% in 2017, as reported by Carbon Shift in June. It’s not yet clear whether this represents a one-year blip or a larger trend, although there are hints of the latter (see embedded tweet below). Another distressing and not-unrelated factoid: global emissions of carbon dioxide rose about 1.6% in 2017, according to BP, after three years of flat or falling emissions accompanied by global economic growth.

The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: December 06, 2018, 05:02:59 AM »
It is largely not a partisan battle going on in relation to NC-9.  Two of the 4 Republicans on the NC election board do not currently support certifying the election for the NC-9 House seat.  (A recent board vote on the matter was 5 to 2.)  The Democratic chairman of the board resigned to remove the "it's partisan" argument some Republicans started to make.   (A new vote, presumably, would be 4 to 2 against certifying that election.)  If the state (because of the board) does not do the paperwork required by the House, it is unlikely the House will seat anybody to represent that district.  If it becomes clear that what now looks like probable fraud really (truly) isn't, the election board will vote again and the House will most likely seat the certified winner.  If the seat remains vacant, NC will hold a special election.

Do read the Wikipedia article on un-seated individuals.  The reason the House (and Senate) gets to decide who to seat (and not the state which held the election) is "Article I, Section 5 of the United States Constitution ... states that, 'Each House shall be the judge of the elections, returns and qualifications of its own members'".

Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (December)
« on: December 05, 2018, 06:05:37 PM »
Further to Binntho's observation of different products' ice edge, here is a PolarView location map (highlighted yellow box with yellow ice edge) and the imaged area (from 2018-12-04-T17:07:13) with my interpretation written in. On the scale of the location map, the ice edge appears to be pretty exact, and I presume this 'neatness' extends across the Atlantic front (which PolarView doesn't fully cover).  With increased scale, the edge gets fuzzier, of course.

Arctic background / Re: USCGC Healy: scientific missions to the Arctic
« on: December 05, 2018, 04:24:28 PM »
Thanks, amstenseth,
Here is the last image with some ice: FROM 2018-11-27.  The lat-long on the picture [57.8333; -133.1167] puts it in [near???!!!  :o] Tracy Arm Fjord.

Healy is now 'safely' back in harbor.

The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: December 05, 2018, 03:03:35 PM »
House Democrats May Not Seat Mark Harris in January - Dec. 5

Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD), who will be the Democratic majority leader in the House come January (and thus second in command, outranked by only the Speaker), said yesterday that if the election in NC-09 is still under a cloud in January—as it is now—the House will not seat Mark Harris (R), who has a slim lead over Dan McCready (D). There are many red flags out there concerning the election, including one that the Republicans violated state law in collecting absentee ballots, but that is not the only problem. There are numerous additional allegations of irregularities and if they are not cleared up, or Harris is given credentials by the state Board of Elections along partisan lines, the House Democrats are prepared to reject Harris and declare the seat vacant. That would force a special election to fill it.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: December 04, 2018, 08:46:53 PM »
Camp Fire (Paradise, CA) Wikipedia update has good news:  death toll decreased! and number of missing way down.  Looks like fewer than 100 people were killed, all told.

The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: December 04, 2018, 05:59:15 PM »
Yesterday I wrote, "On January 3, however, one or more of these seats may be open due to … refusal to seat (most likely [but not very likely, at all]: GA-7)"

Well, NC-9 may be in more (a lot more) trouble than GA-7.
NC-09 Just Keeps Getting Shadier
As authorities investigate the election in NC-09, which ostensibly resulted in Republican Mark Harris being elected to Congress by a narrow margin, they keep finding more and more troublesome signs. The latest of those come from a set of 161 absentee ballots that got a careful look-see.

In North Carolina, a witness must sign an absentee ballot to confirm that the person who filled it out is who they claim to be. Normally, that witness is a family member or close friend, and it's rather unusual for a person to be witness on more than one or two or maybe three ballots. Well, it's unusual everywhere except for NC-09, it would seem. The 161 absentee ballots in question were "witnessed" by just a handful of people, one who signed off on 40 ballots, another who signed off on 30, and three more who signed off on at least 10. All of these people appear to be connected, and all of them (or nearly all of them) appear to know Leslie McCrae Dowless. Dowless is a Republican operative who just so happened to work on Harris' campaign, and who denies any wrongdoing. Of course, he also denied any wrongdoing when he was convicted of insurance fraud in the early 1990s after taking out a $163,000 policy on a dead man. So, you may not want to take his word for it, especially since one witness has already signed an affidavit that Dowless was set to receive a $40,000 bonus if Harris won.

The bipartisan elections board that is responsible for overseeing the election voted once again, this time by a 7-2 margin, not to certify the election (for now). Some Republican officials in the state are up in arms, but given that two of those seven votes were from Republicans, and a third was from an independent, they don't have much of a leg to stand on. If the board decides the election was not on the up-and-up, they can call for a new one to be held. At this point, that would seem to be the likeliest outcome.

2018 mid-term elections:  the gift that keeps on giving   ::)

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 04, 2018, 03:26:17 AM »

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 03, 2018, 08:57:03 PM »
I note Stephan's graph shows the period ~1997 to ~2006 as having an uncharacteristically small deviation between neighboring years (+/- 3 years within that decade).  In essence, why was weather so stable then, and not before or since?  With the first seven of those years hardly ever dropping below the long term trend line, I wonder if this phenomenon suggests there was a change in slope, something Tamino's skills would be needed to determine if it was 'real' or 'just statistical variability'.

The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: December 03, 2018, 08:19:40 PM »
… I suggest the US House of Representatives will, come January 3, have (all approximations) either 210 or 235 Democrats (with either 225 or 200 Republicans), or a shift of either 17 (±5) or 42 (±5) seats.  …
With apparently all U.S. House of Representative races determined, Wikipedia reports

                Dem     Rep
Seats won  235     200
Change       +41    -41

Pity I wrote "all approximations"!
On January 3, however, one or more of these seats may be open due to death, resignation or refusal to seat (most likely [but not very likely, at all]: GA-7)

GA-7 issues
Gwinnett County, which makes up the largest portion of the 7th District, has been the target of questions — and litigation — from Democrats and voting rights advocates for several weeks. The county was continually under fire for its voting procedures, from its rejection of absentee ballots, which critics said occurred at a far higher rate than in other Georgia counties, to hours-long lines in some precincts on Election Day.

Consequences / Re: Near Term Human Extinction
« on: December 03, 2018, 07:42:55 PM »
Truth is we're on uncharted waters and the systems we're trying to model (climate and biosphere) are too complex, so it's impossible to make predictions accurate enough to serve as  base for any decisions.

Here's a quote about Environmental Impact Analyses
suggesting AGW is nothing new, just 'larger' in scope:

Environmental impact analyses are often challenging because they call for making projections with incomplete information. Methods of assessing the impacts typically include both objective and subjective information making it difficult to quantify. Therefore, the methods are frequently seen as complex and, oftentimes, controversial. Despite being a requirement for many development projects, the function of an environmental impact statement is merely procedural. There is no specific legal force of action if information stemming from an environmental impact analysis confirms that a particular project may harm the environment. As a result, it is often left up to the courts to rule on whether risks to the environment are overstated or not.
The U.S.A. (at least) appears to contain a large number of people (and the resulting state and national governments) who somehow believe we cannot know enough to justify our doing anything different than what we've "always" done.  Probably something to do with stages of grief.

From an old [January 2017] EPA website: Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA)

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project quantifies the physical effects and economic damages under multiple climate change scenarios. The goal of this work is to estimate to what degree climate change impacts and damages to multiple U.S. sectors (e.g., human health, infrastructure, and water resources) may be avoided or reduced in a future under different levels of future global emissions. CIRA advances the estimation of climate change damages by bridging the gap between climate modeling and economic effects, presenting both physical and monetized damages.

The peer-reviewed CIRA reports and analyses demonstrate that global action on climate change will significantly benefit Americans by saving lives and avoiding costly damages across the U.S. economy.
So apparently, the Earth's climate and biosphere, albeit complex, are not too complex to apply models that forecast consequences of different future behaviors (BAU or Green BAU or nuke everything in sight, etc. edit: see, for example this ASLR post). We use either this information or an old Farmer's Almanac (or do what Uncle Jeb did, cause drilling an oil well made us rich 100 years ago) to serve as the bases for the decisions we actually do make.   We do make decisions that have consequences on our future.  Should we only use data and analyses from the First Century, Common Era (conducted in the Middle East) or should we reach out to the best and the brightest, despite their (our?) acknowledged shortcomings?

And then we'll fight about it in the courts.  (Ahh, the American way!   :o :-\ :'()

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: November 30, 2018, 02:58:02 PM »
Where’s the science to backup this 1.5c/2c bs. ... What changed or more likely what am I missing?
I am not a climate scientist, but I pretend to be one with my friends...

I am aware of approximately three things that may have changed since '400 ppm CO2 = 4-6C warmer'.
How these affect, or how much they affect, what would be a stable temperature for any given greenhouse gas concentration, I'm not certain.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 29, 2018, 08:28:45 PM »
It makes me shiver [freezing season, so on topic??] to think I grew up with the two Flanders & Swann records, including, of course, the Hippopotamus Song  (words include "... let us wallow …").  By chance, I met Donald Swann at the Quaker Meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, where he, also, was visiting.

The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: November 29, 2018, 08:11:58 PM »
My interpretation from what I've read (today) is that beavers can move into tundra areas because of climate change (warmer? more to eat? I don't know - obviously, something to eat is part of it), and that they speed up certain processes (thermokarst) by building dams.  I appreciate your "tundra becomes something else than tundra", Magnamentis, as what I read didn't say, other than 'shallow ponds and lakes'.

Policy and solutions / Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« on: November 29, 2018, 06:26:47 PM »
L.A. Auto Show: 5 electric cars coming soon

Fox News - "L.A." as in Los Angeles, California, USA

Kia Soul EV
Rivian R1T and R1s (2020/2021)
Audi E-Tron GT Concept (2021)
VW I.D. Buzz Cargo (2022)

interesting what Fox doesn't mention.

From the LA Auto Show website
The LA Auto Show is excited to feature dozens of electric vehicles from various automakers. November 30 - December 9, 2018 at the LA Convention Center.
Several are actually hybrids.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 29, 2018, 05:36:54 PM »
… but the Tesla saleswoman is just a figment of the other three's imagination.

More Tesla jokes here and here (Tesla site) and here (Tesla site).

The rest / Re: Wildlife
« on: November 29, 2018, 05:27:41 PM »
I'm quite sure your interpretation that 'the survival of tundra is at risk due to invading beavers' is correct.  included in Sidd's post is "Thermokarst landforms have developed adjacent to new [beaver] ponds ..."  From Wikipedia and the National Geographic, I learn that developing thermokarst is strongly associated with melting of permafrost and the release of carbon into the atmosphere.  Tundra ecosystems are considered to be "among the most sensitive habitats in the world".

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 29, 2018, 02:30:54 PM »
From Bloomberg
Oil rose above $50 a barrel in New York, erasing an earlier loss, after a report that Russia accepts the need to cut production in conjunction with OPEC.

All eyes are on this weekend’s G20 summit in Argentina, where Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman are likely to discuss how to coordinate oil policy. The nations are in talks over the timing of any reduction in supply, Reuters reported Thursday, a week before producers are due to meet in Vienna next week to discuss policy for 2019.

I watched intermittently yesterday, and didn't notice the price dropping below $50.  Oh well...

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 28, 2018, 09:41:31 PM »
BBR may not be reading this now, but another story:  this time, burning hot ground.

I was on Bondi Beach (Sydney, Australia) one very hot summer day (Christmas, +/- a day or two) in 1972.  I was on the beach because a shark had been spotted and we were not allowed to even have our toes on wet sand.  The dry sand was so hot I had to dig a few inches down so that I could stand and not burn my feet.  (Most people had flip-flops that insulated them from the hot sand.)  After a few minutes, I had to dig down again.  (After a half-hour we gave up and opened the one-use-per-payment storage locker to fetch clothes and shoes and did something else.)

Unlike snow, sand is not a good insulator, so after the sun goes down, much of the accumulated heat will quickly radiate into the air (and, ultimately, space). 

As the article I referenced indicated, they did not identify an annual soil temperature drift; I suspect, however, over a longer period of time, they will identify a long term warming trend.  With Global Warming, permafrost soils will warm to be seasonally ice-free (i.e., will warm - as BBR admits); seasonally frozen soils will freeze less deeply; other soils will get slightly less cold in the winter.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 28, 2018, 08:23:26 PM »
I remember (from about 1995) articles about municipal water pipes bursting 'everywhere' because there was no snow cover (deep into that winter - a first ever experience in the area) to prevent heat loss.  This was in the Adirondack Mountains and the pipes had been buried six feet down, I recall.  Water main replacement was a massive undertaking!

About 1970, we had a deep freeze in northern New Mexico (-32ºF [-35.5ºC] at its extreme).  We had six or so inches (150 mm) of snow on the ground and our fruit trees all survived.  50 miles away in Santa Fe, with no snow on the ground, they lost a lot of orchards.

Yes, snow is quite the insulator.  I hadn't thought about the 'preservation of heat' in the 'not lose it to space' sense before, though.  So thanks!

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 28, 2018, 06:48:06 PM »
How about this article?

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate
change in Canada

[authors listed]; published 21 January 2011.
[1] Trends in soil temperature are important, but rarely reported, indicators of climate
change. On the basis of the soil temperature data from 30 climate stations across
Canada during 1958–2008, trends in soil temperatures at 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 150 cm
depths were analyzed, together with atmospheric variables, such as air temperature,
precipitation, and depth of snow on the ground, observed at the same locations. There was
a significant positive trend with soil temperatures in spring and summer means, but not
for the winter and annual means. A positive trend with time in soil temperature was
detected at about two‐thirds of the stations at all depths below 5 cm. A warming trend of
0.26–0.30°C/decade was consistently detected in spring (March–April–May) at all depths
between 1958 and 2008. The warming trend in soil temperatures was associated with
trends in air temperatures and snow cover depth over the same period. A significant
decreasing trend in snow cover depth in winter and spring was associated with increasing
air temperatures. The combined effects of the higher air temperature and reduced snow
depth probably resulted in an enhanced increasing trend in spring soil temperatures, but no
significant trends in winter soil temperatures. The thermal insulation by snow cover
appeared to play an important role in the response of soil temperatures to climate change
and must be accounted for in projecting future soil‐related impacts of climate change.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 28, 2018, 06:31:02 PM »
Camp Fire (Paradise, California) update via Chico-Redding Action News:
sheriff's office says the number of people missing from the camp fire has dropped by more than 50 [great news!]. it is now at 158. the death toll still stands at 88

national weather service has issued a flash flood watch for areas impacted by the camp fire. [10] o'clock tonight through 10 tomorrow morning
debris flows possible (again) with approximately 1.3" (30 mm) of new rainfall forecast.
also: mobilized ash has clogged some drains in the area, causing water damage to buildings.

Policy and solutions / Re: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
« on: November 28, 2018, 05:28:08 PM »
Scientists achieve direct electrocatalytic reduction of CO2, raising hopes for smart carbon capture
EureaAlert! released Nov. 28, 2018

Chemists at Tokyo Institute of Technology (Tokyo Tech) propose an innovative way to achieve carbon capture using a rhenium-based electrocatalytic system that is capable of reducing low-concentration CO2 (even 1%) with high selectivity and durability, which is a new potential technology to enable direct utilization of CO2 in exhaust gases from heavy industries.

In their study published in Chemical Science, Ishitani and colleagues including Hiromu Kumagai and Tetsuya Nishikawa drew on decades of work on honing the capabilities of a rhenium-based catalyst, and demonstrated its ability to reduce low-concentration CO2 in the presence of a chemical called triethanolamine (TEOA).

Compared to many previous studies that have focused on reducing pure CO2, few have explored how to improve direct capture of low-concentration CO2 -- a topic that warrants further investigation, considering that plants harness low concentrations of CO2 (about 400 ppm, that is 0.04% of the atmosphere) and exhaust gases from heavy industries typically contain low levels of CO2 (around 3-13%).

By avoiding the need for additional energy-consuming condensation processes, their strategy, if scaled up, could provide a more viable, environmentally friendly solution to CO2 capture in many settings.

In a series of experiments to assess electrocatalytic activity, the researchers found that at a CO2 concentration of 1%, the rhenium-based catalyst showed very high selectivity (94%) towards carbon monoxide (CO) formation.

A likely reason behind the high performance, the researchers say, is the efficient insertion of CO2 into the rhenium-oxygen bond.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 27, 2018, 09:23:56 PM »
Model 3, with a range of 310 miles per full charge, would have to stop at least 5 times for recharging to go 1629 miles.  If it wanted to minimize charge time (get the battery up to 80% then hit the road) and charged every 225 miles, it'd stop an extra couple of times.  127 mph is not its top speed, although driving fast would require more pit stops.

If each of 7 stops was 30 minutes long, then the 24 hours would include 20.5 hours of driving, so the average [moving] speed may have been more like 80 mph.

a “Long Range” model will [have a] of range … of 310 miles of all-electric range. The larger battery pack also means more power can be extracted at one time, resulting in a lower 0–60 mph time of just 5.1 seconds, up to a top speed of 140 miles per hour.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 27, 2018, 04:34:37 PM »
Federal Lands Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sequestration in the United States: Estimates for 2005–14
a USGS publication

Washington Post did a review:

A new report from the U.S. Geological Survey found the extracting and burning of fossil fuels from federal lands made up nearly a quarter of all carbon dioxide emissions in the United States between 2005 and 2014.

It was released on the same Friday the administration published an even larger interagency report outlining the severe economic toll climate change is projected to exact on the nation as the threats of coastal flooding and forest fires rise. Trump administration critics accused political appointees of trying to bury that report on Black Friday.

In a first-of-its-kind report, the agency found that the consumption of coal, oil and gas from federal onshore and offshore holdings represented 23.7 percent of carbon dioxide emissions nationwide on average over the 10-year period studied.  Fossil fuels from federally controlled areas account for much smaller portions — 7.3 percent and 1.5 percent — of methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 25, 2018, 09:47:45 PM »
Very nicely done, Uniquorn.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 25, 2018, 03:39:04 PM »
San Francisco Chronicle
on the Camp Fire
The rain that moved into Northern California on Wednesday doused the flames and helped firefighters gain more control of the blaze. Officials were concerned that heavy rain could cause mudslides and debris flows in the burn scar areas of Paradise and Magalia.

There were no reports of any slides. And that’s because the rain was steady but not too intense, said Bill Rasch, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

“We just got really lucky,” Rasch said. “The rain came down at a slow enough pace and hit the sweet spot — steady rain, not a lot of impact.”

The town of Paradise has received 3.22 inches of rain, Concow had close to 5 inches and Magalia has recorded 5.41 inches, according to the National Weather Service.
I concur that the large number of (remaining) missing persons is troubling.  A large death toll, unfortunately, is what I expected when I read the fire was advancing 80 acres (32 ha) per minute on Nov. 8.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 24, 2018, 09:52:54 PM »
"The rain is over. The rain is over. The rain is over and gone."  (Sacred Harp song: last words in the anthem.)
Rain total since fire:  3.01 inches (76mm)

Rain update for Pleasure, I mean, Paradise.  Rain since the fire:  2.45" (62 mm) with 1.6" more predicted today, per the National Weather Service (3-day history and hourly forecasts)

The rest / Re: Political theatre/wrestling
« on: November 23, 2018, 07:41:22 PM »
Soybeans Are Fungible

When politicians violate domestic laws, they may or may not get away with it. When they violate the laws of economics, economics always wins. Case in point: soybeans. Every soybean looks pretty much like every other soybean. You really can't tell them apart. As a result of the trade war that Donald Trump started with China and the Chinese retaliatory tariffs, U.S. soybean exports to China have dropped 98%.

Fortunately, U.S. soybean farmers are creative, so they started selling a large volume of soybeans to Brazil and Argentina. However, these countries also produce a large volume of soybeans themselves. So what are they doing with their domestic soybeans? Selling them to China, naturally. The net result is that China ends up with as many soybeans as it wants anyway, but U.S. farmers get less money because the South Americans can't pay as much as the Chinese for the beans. The moral of the story is that tariffs often don't achieve the goal they were intended to produce (in this case, to hurt China) but end up damaging the country that started the trade war in the first place.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: November 23, 2018, 06:24:04 PM »
Almost $50 West Texas Intermediate - wow.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 23, 2018, 03:07:25 PM »
Rain update for Pleasure, I mean, Paradise.  Rain since the fire:  2.45" (62 mm) with 1.6" more predicted today, per the National Weather Service (3-day history and hourly forecasts)

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: November 22, 2018, 09:29:11 PM »
Mt. Washington, New Hampshire is virtually the name sake of "weird weather".  I remember having a snowball 'fight' on its top with my fiancee (now wife of 21 years) one June afternoon.  The wind was intense and the sleet was stinging and the clouds were low - they closed the road soon after we passed the gate at the bottom of the mountain, so we had the parking lot (and ground just over the edge from it where snow was accumulating) to ourselves, after the only other visitor drove away.  (The resident(s) at the observatory kept to themselves.)

Glaciers / Re: Glaciers worldwide decline faster than ever
« on: November 22, 2018, 09:12:48 PM »

from here

Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: November 22, 2018, 02:20:50 AM »
Thanks, you all, for this discussion on material costs in a greatly expanding market.  (Not that I'm attempting to end it.)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: November 22, 2018, 02:12:09 AM »
Who makes money when someone loses their shirt on a short sale?

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 22, 2018, 02:09:22 AM »
Thanks BBR.
NATICE for today.  Is HB 75% covered?  I don't think so, but I don't have a pixel counter.

Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: November 21, 2018, 09:18:16 PM »
Further to what Sigmetnow wrote yesterday, here is the NOAA Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for Nov. 21-24 (times/dates on chart are GMT, so you have to subtract 8 hours to get local time).  The brown color is 7-10 inches or ~180-250 mm.  Paradise, California (and Camp Fire location) approximately circled. 

National Weather Service 2-day forecast for Paradise itself.

Actual accumulation in "Garbo Gap" which is about 5 mi (8 km) east of Paradise (as best I can tell), per NWS (0.20" or 5 mm so far)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: November 21, 2018, 08:11:59 PM »
If I understand your November 13 prediction (#685 in this thread), Hudson Bay (HB) is going to have 75% ice coverage by 11/15 (plus 6 days, because we are among friends) using NATICE.  I found a few references to "NATICE" in this thread, but no links.  Can you provide one, so that we can connect your prediction with the reference you specified?  Today is the day, but tomorrow (or the next day, I presume) will show today's extent.  (The ASIG-regional [a different calibration, for sure], as SH posted, shows for HB less than 50% extent as of yesterday.)

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: November 21, 2018, 06:04:46 PM »
A little here to support "Insurance companies base rates on past experience" and a little to support "Insurance companies base rates on future expectations not represented by past experience":

Climate Change Is Forcing the Insurance Industry to Recalculate
Wall Street Journal - Published Oct. 2, 2018 at 10:30 a.m. ET
Insurers are at the vanguard of a movement to put a value today on the unpredictable future of a warming planet

The effects of the planet’s slow heating are diffuse. Predictions of the fallout are imprecise, and the drivers are debated. But faced with the prospect of a warming planet, the world of business and finance is starting to put a price on climate change.

For the most part, insurers are acting on climate change by building models that aim to better estimate the impact. That leaves the industry with the tough question of how to reflect in premiums the new understandings of the underlying risk.

For most insurers, rates aren’t rising—yet. A flood of capital into the industry from pension and hedge-fund investors, driven by low interest rates, has increased competition and pushed down property-catastrophe reinsurance prices in the past decade.

And property insurance and reinsurance contracts typically last one year, so an insurer can recalibrate yearly as risks change. “Global warming may be occurring. Probably is,” says Warren Buffett, chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which has a major reinsurance business. “But it hasn’t hurt the reinsurance industry. And people are pricing still as if it won’t, on a one-year basis.”

If reinsurance contracts covered 30 years, he says, “I’d be crazy not to” include the risks.
Big insurers are expanding teams of in-house climatologists, computer scientists and statisticians to redesign models to incorporate the effect of the warming earth on hailstorms, hurricanes, flooding and wildfires. Insurers such as Swiss Re Group say hurricanes like Harvey and Florence, which caused widespread flooding, could represent a more common occurrence in the coming decades.

Climate change may be gradual, but the effects are volatile, meaning a company could become exposed to a large, unexpected hit if it doesn’t understand the changing risks, says Junaid Seria, head of catastrophe-model research and development and governance at Paris-based reinsurer Scor SE.

Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: November 21, 2018, 05:49:47 PM »
The Ice Island A68-A has rotated about 115º in 6 months, but the pivot end hasn't moved diddlysquat. 

The largest iceberg in the area (current, lower, image) has, in the meantime, moved about 125 km northwards, squeezing through what I'll call an ice-strait.  (1st image from a May 18 post by johnm33 [conveniently at the top of this thread's page 7]; 2nd image from PolarView on November 20.) 

I'm going to postulate, now, that intermittent grounding keeps A68-A where it is; no point is clearly 'actually' stuck in one place for any length of time.  A GIF covering multiple images might show if any spot does get stuck (becoming a fixed (if temporary) pivot point).

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