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Messages - Tor Bejnar

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 45
1
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: February 18, 2019, 04:59:58 PM »
Uniquorn has a movie in "The 2018/2019 freezing season" thread showing the short-lived stall of "Big Chunk Block" in Kennedy Channel

[Edit: chunk, block: gotta get those terms right, now.  Note that B.C. is hitting Hans Island and will be further broken the next time we see it.  I recall now: that "Big Block" was in the Beaufort, a very resilient piece of ice, until it melted.]

2
When I saw this thread re-surface, I thought that if the name "Bering Strait" was changed to "The Southern Border", a certain Mr. Trump would build it for us. (not that I want it built in the first place). What's his quote:  "Walls work 100% of the time." With certainty like that, what could go wrong?
[Sorry about that.]

3
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: February 15, 2019, 07:40:33 PM »
Well, the gods choose reinvigorated movement: DMI Satellite Images yesterday and today.
I've marked three floes and added a couple of lat-longs to help with location.  (Yes, the left image is wider; the right image shows the current satellite pass with 'no data' being black.)  What was above 82ºN is now below 82ºN; what was above 81.5ºN is now at 81.5ºN; etc.

4
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: February 15, 2019, 04:11:30 AM »
It is interesting to me to see the narrow stream on the west side of the Kennedy Channel moving right along.  I don't recall seeing anything like this in past years.  Will it get blocked or slow to a halt or reinvigorate the whole channel?  We will probably know in a few days, as on Sunday [and again in a week](per Windy.com), the winds that are currently out of the north will become confused or out of the south.

5
The rest / Re: Poll on oil price
« on: February 14, 2019, 03:01:02 AM »
...
Seems as though we both remember our reactions when gas first hit $0.50/gal at the pump.
Terry
I certainly remember Fina gas at 21 [actually 219] cents near Durango, CO one summer (we kids read pumps as we drove by gas stations so that our dad could get the lowest price - prices for gas weren't posted [price of cigarettes was]).  I remember wondering if I could fill my motorcycle's 1 gal. tank when I had a quarter ($0.25 - one of the less stupid American coin names) as gas was 329 cents) in my pocket as the tank wasn't actually empty [the service person did fill the tank] about 1969.  I remember seeing $0.999 gas in Circle City, AK in 1974. But I have to say, I don't remember 50 cent gas!

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: February 12, 2019, 06:33:58 PM »
Last year we were wondering if the Bering Sea would have a February max (we thought that would be incredible! then it had a March max).  This year I'm wondering if the Bering Sea will have a January max, but am ho-hum about the possibility.

7
Consequences / Re: Decline in insect populations
« on: February 12, 2019, 06:10:22 PM »
I was thinking, "the return of the eurypterids", except we need lots of free O2 for that. I guess I'll just check my shoes more often.  (I grew up with scorpions but rarely checked my shoes, but once when I did check, out came a little yellow fellow.  We had centipedes and black widows, too, but the worst 'neighbors' were discussed in this [functionally unavailable, but 'tags' give a clue] article.)

8
Antarctica / Re: Thwaites Glacier Discussion
« on: February 12, 2019, 05:59:33 PM »
The break apart of two large floes/bergs (triangular one just left of center of image, and slightly-crooked-finger-shaped one just below center of image)

9
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: February 10, 2019, 05:48:39 AM »
Thanks, Where...,
I've just taken Lurk off "Ignore", given what you quoted.

10
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: February 06, 2019, 04:53:22 PM »
I second that opinion, gerontocrat.  My observation, over several years, is that arches form because south winds stop the flow of ice, not because large floes get stuck.  With generally thinner floes today than in previous decades, I suspect this to be more true today than yesteryear.

11
I presume "NOWARE" is a child of "beware" and "no where".  Curious concept, for sure: "Beware of there being no where to hide!"

Climate change is affecting the Earth vaguely like a very large meteorite or massive volcanism, i.e., the whole Earth, and for a very long time (centuries).  Earthquakes, volcanoes (as we've know them these past many centuries), fires and hurricanes (etc.) may affect an area intensely, but whose effects mostly 'go away' after a year or two.  Plus, climate change (as we know it today) is entirely caused by human activity.

So unlike hurricanes where you can flee Florida, or earthquakes where you can flee California, or meteorites which you cannot flee (but approximately one person in modern history has been killed by one falling), climate change is the real Frankenstein: beware of there being no where to hide!

12
Quote
papers that might indicate why the Lincoln Sea/Nares is so late to freeze during recent years
These two article may offer some clues:
Nares Strait hydrography and salinity field from a 3‐year moored array
B. Rabe, A. Münchow, H. L. Johnson and H. Melling
First published: 17 July 2010  https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005966
extract from Abstract:
Quote
...
Data show warm salty water on the Greenland side and cold fresher water on the Ellesmere Island side, especially in the top layers. There was a clear difference in hydrographic structure between times when sea ice was drifting and when it was land fast. Ice was drifting in late summer, fall, and early winter with a strong surface‐intensified geostrophic flow in the middle of the strait. Ice was land fast in late winter, spring, and early summer, when there was a subsurface core of strong geostrophic flow adjacent to the western side of the strait. Salinity variations of about 2 psu in time and space reflect a variable freshwater outflow from the Arctic Ocean. One particularly strong pulse occurred at the end of July 2005. For several days, steeply sloping isohalines indicated strong geostrophic flow down the middle of the strait coinciding with an amplified ice export from the Arctic due to strong southward winds.

Water, Heat, and Salt Transports through Nares Strait, Ellesmere Island
H. Eric Sadler
Published on the web 14 April 2011 - Journal of the Fisheries Research Board of Canada

Abstract
Quote
Data obtained in Nares Strait are used to provide estimates of the transports of water, heat, and salt between the polar ocean and northern Baffin Bay. The annual volume export of water through Nares Strait is 2.1 × 104 km3 ± 30%, which is equivalent to a mean flow of 0.67 × 106 m3∙s−1 and which is about 15% of the total outflow of water from the polar ocean. The annual net heat input into the polar ocean due to the outflow of cold water and ice is found to be 15 × 1019 J ± 50% assuming a reference temperature of −0.1 C. This volume is about 7% of the total advective heat transport into the polar ocean. The mean annual export of salt from the polar ocean is 6.7 × 1014 kg ± 30% or about 6% of the total export. The total transports through the whole Canadian archipelago are estimated and it is shown that they are appreciable fractions of the total exchanges between the polar ocean and the world ocean.

13
Quote
I don't really know why "they" changed it from global warming to climate change ...
Although an imprecise tool, the Google NGram Viewer shows frequency of words (or phrases) in books.  Comparing "climate change" with "global warming", you see (below and at the link) that "climate change" was slightly 'more popular' in the 1970's and '80's, and again after about 1995.  There was no "they changed it"!

14
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: January 26, 2019, 08:16:48 PM »
Quote
we would discuss as to whether we thought it might hang up on Hans or Franklin Islands
Ah, but it was so much fun speculating!  But even the Petermann Ice Island (2012)
didn't get suck in Nares Strait.  A floe named 'shark', reported in 2015, "got stuck for a day or so, but then shattered."

15
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: January 19, 2019, 05:37:23 PM »
A little off topic or pedantic prehaps, but ...
For those who use "ice age" to mean periods of glaciation advancement and near-peak ice coverage, know that in glaciology [i.e., "scientific"] terms, ice age implies the presence of extensive ice sheets in both northern and southern hemispheres. So by this definition, we are in the Quaternary Glaciation or Ice Age (and in an interglacial period—the Holocene—within it). We won't leave the current ice age until most (or all) of the ice fields in Greenland and Antarctica melt away.

Colloquially, of course, ice ages are interspersed with interglacial periods of time.  Although I believe Earth was slowly heading for the next glacial stage, human activities during the past 10,000 years or so (especially the last 300 and moreso, 70 years) have turned this Milankovitch Cycle on its head.  (Well, the Cycle is still operative, but (unintentional) geoengineering has overpowered the M. Cycle influences.)  And there are scientific papers out there [e.g. here] that occasionally use the "ice age = glacial stage" definition, so maybe you should just ignore me.

16
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: January 18, 2019, 02:23:11 AM »
I believe "holding for three days" was my invention associated with a poll I started, created out of whole cloth (if not also useful for defining a (money-less) 'wager').  I had a 7-day threshold for bridges/arches in the Lincoln Sea. Some thought the 3-day threshold too short, although I think the first 3-day set bridge held that year.  (All details are per my memory.)

17
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: January 16, 2019, 06:06:45 PM »
The Yellowstone hyped story going around including a "465 mile long piece of molten rock" appears to be from 2007, such as reported by Science News for Students. Notice how "1200 sq. km." turns into "465 mile long" junk reporting?  See the image below
Quote

Over the years, the data have revealed rises and falls over various parts of the park's
landscape. These changes reflect the complicated movement of molten rock and
water underground.

Between 1923 and 1995, the terrain shifts averaged between 1 cm (0.4 inch)/year
and 1.4 cm (0.6 inch)/year. The shifts started becoming more dramatic between 2000
and 2003. The record-setting rise of land in the Yellowstone basin began in 2004.

The team's analyses suggest that a reservoir of molten rock, called a magma chamber,
lies about 10 kilometers (6 miles) below the surface of Yellowstone's central basin.
The chamber spreads out under an area of about 1,200 square kilometers (465 square
miles).

During the record-setting growth spurt, about 0.1 cubic km (0.02 cubic mile) of
molten rock flowed into the chamber. That's enough rock to fill the Louisiana
Superdome about 30 times.

Even though many volcanic eruptions, including some huge ones, have happened in
the Yellowstone region, the recent findings don't suggest that another eruption is
about to happen.

Still, the new study offers insights into the underground plumbing of Yellowstone,
says Hank Heasler, a National Park Service geologist at Yellowstone's headquarters in
Mammoth, Wyo. The findings, he says, are "very fascinating." -Emily Sohn

Study didn't end in 2007.  Here is a paper's abstract from 2010 that should really put a damper on hype:  An extraordinary episode of Yellowstone Caldera uplift, 2004–2010, from GPS and InSAR observations

Quote
Geodetic measurements of Yellowstone ground deformation from 2006 to June 2010 reveal deceleration of the recent uplift of the Yellowstone caldera following an unprecedented period of uplift that began in 2004. In 2006–2008 uplift rates decreased from 7 to 5 cm/yr and 4 to 2 cm/yr in the northern and southwest caldera, respectively, and in 2009 rates further reduced to 2 cm/yr and 0.5 cm/yr in  the same areas. Elastic‐dislocation modeling of the deformation data robustly indicates an expanding sill at ∼7–10 km depth near the top of a seismically imaged, crystallizing magma reservoir, with a 60% decrease in the volumetric expansion rate between 2006 and 2009. Reduction of hydrothermal‐volcanic recharge from beneath the northeast caldera and seismic moment release of the 2008 and 2010 large earthquake swarms are plausible mechanisms for decelerating the caldera uplift and may have influenced the change in recent caldera motion from uplift to subsidence.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: January 15, 2019, 10:00:25 PM »
Quote
So, if we have the new temperatures for 30 years, some could say that the climate (on average) is the same, even that the weather is not.

Per Tamino, in his January 2nd post on 'What is Climate? Really?',
climate is not ever "just the average."
Quote
Climate is the probability density function of weather.

The catchy way I like to say it is:

Climate is the odds. Weather is the roll of the dice.
And the odds in January are never the same as the odds in July.

19
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: January 15, 2019, 09:50:22 PM »
So, it's Armageddon or … not. 

Do we get insurance for the 1% chance?  How about for the 0.001% chance?  I don't know anybody who has asteroid-collision insurance, but lots of people who have more auto liability coverage than what is required by law, but not a $100,000,000 worth (against some rare event, for sure). 

Are we (humans) resigned to suffer and die if the scientific nay-sayers are correct?  Or do we believe they are just wrong and can be ignored?  (Or "I'm old and will be dead by then, surely.")

20
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: January 15, 2019, 06:13:40 PM »
From NOAA: updated January 14, 2019 (despite the government closure)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CDB/Forecast/figf4.shtml

21
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: January 09, 2019, 05:26:04 PM »
I cannot answer your question, Sigmetnow, but a report released yesterday talks about the issues involved:
Quote
Some recent cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean
 
Tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters have returned to ENSO-neutral temperatures after exceeding El Niño levels in November and early December. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT.

While waters at and beneath the surface of the tropical Pacific have been warmer than average since mid-2018, atmospheric indicators of ENSO such as cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) have not responded and have mostly remained neutral. For an El Niño to become established, the atmosphere needs to reinforce and respond to the warmer waters at the ocean's surface. This reinforcement is what allows the widespread global effects on weather and climate to occur.

The recent cooling of tropical Pacific waters may partly reflect the movement of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), which has recently encouraged stronger trade winds over the tropical Pacific. However, the MJO is moving east, weakening the trade winds once again, which may allow the ocean surface to warm again.

Most models indicate sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are likely to remain near El Niño levels at least until early autumn 2019. Models typically have less skill when forecasting through autumn compared with other seasons. If sea surface temperatures do maintain their anomalous warmth through summer, it increases the chance of El Niño emerging in 2019.

22
Antarctica / Re: Discussion of the Antarctic Peninsula
« on: January 09, 2019, 05:04:33 PM »
Muller Ice Shelf, Antarctica 2018 Calving Event
This article in From a Glacier's Perspective describes see-sawing growth and shrinking of the Müller Ice Shelf (on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula) over the last seven decades, with Landsat images from 2016, '17 and '18.
Quote
This [2018 calving] is small by Antarctic standards, but large for the Muller Ice Shelf. The decreased connection to Humphreys Island and the expanding rift area indicates that the Muller Ice Shelf is poised for disintegration like what occurred on nearby Jones Ice Shelf and what is poised to occur on Verdi Ice Shelf.
[Wikipedia image has Verdi Ice Shelf reference added - there are named ice shelves in many of the inlets, e.g., see here]

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 07, 2019, 04:44:05 PM »
The distribution of votes/guesses is more normal now.  Edit:  it's even more 'normal' after the latest vote added.  Image replaced.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: January 07, 2019, 03:43:53 PM »
And from Purdue:

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: January 07, 2019, 03:23:47 PM »

26
Consequences / Re: 2019 ENSO
« on: January 07, 2019, 03:05:37 PM »
Although Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is not currently on lock out...


Climate Model Summary for January to May 2019

Issued 17 December 2018 Updated 18 December 2018 Next issue 16 January 2019

Models maintain El Niño thresholds for the ocean, but atmosphere yet to respond
Quote
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been at or above El Niño thresholds over the past two months. However, atmospheric indicators of El Niño remain neutral, indicating the ocean and atmosphere are not yet coupled (i.e. not reinforcing each other to help sustain the El Niño state).

Five of eight model outlooks suggest El Niño levels will be maintained through to May 2018, while the other three forecast SSTs in the neutral range. It must be noted that model accuracy forecasting through the autumn months is lower than at other times of the year.
Other reports coming out tomorrow (Jan. 8 )

27
Permafrost / Re: Snow Cover changes on regional scale
« on: January 07, 2019, 05:29:44 AM »
I note the two lowest August Greenland snow extent years matche the two lowest August Arctic sea ice extent years.

28
Science / Re: 2018 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« on: January 05, 2019, 06:01:13 PM »
Quote
likely to be mainly above 410 for next 6 to 7 months
Or, in other words, likely to be mainly above 410 for the rest of my life.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: January Poll 2019: JAXA Maximum
« on: January 05, 2019, 02:54:01 PM »
Five votes (so far) and five different guesses.  Only one covers (includes) previous 4 years' experience.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: AMSR2 Sea Ice Volume/Thickness
« on: January 04, 2019, 09:05:31 PM »
Uniquorn,
The animation on the right makes me think it is showing waves, rather than just ice movement.  When a crack opens up, the crack moves/changes slowly but the waves stream along it.

31
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: January 04, 2019, 08:57:52 PM »
Oren,
I think the answer is "No," but my computer has a program - Snagit - that can be used for a few screens.  I click from screen to screen about a second per frame.  The resulting MP4 shows floes are still moving [below - I wish I could make the image smaller...].  I can save the separate images within the MP4 as PNGs with exact same boundaries.

The far end from rocket science.  At work I'm limited to software they give me, and at home I'm a cheapskate.

32
The rest / Re: Elections 2018 USA
« on: January 04, 2019, 08:25:42 PM »
Further to North Carolina Congressional District 9 …

New Congress Sworn in Without Representation for NC 9th District
Quote
WASHINGTON -- The new Congress was sworn in Thursday, with one notable exception. The seat for North Carolina's 9th district remains wide open amid an election fraud investigation.

“The clerk has not received a certificate of election for the 9th district for the state of North Carolina,” said Karen Haas, the House clerk from the dais above the House floor.

The North Carolina State Board of Elections has not certified the race.

Republican Mark Harris garnered about 900 more votes than his Democratic rival Dan McCready during the November election. However, Harris has come under scrutiny, with questions mounting about his relationship to a man accused of harvesting ballots.

Congress has the final say on its membership, but so far North Carolina lawmakers - Democrats and Republicans alike - do not seem interested in stepping into the fray.

"The House of Representatives does not want to inject itself into the process right now," said Rep. GK Butterfield, D-N.C. "We want North Carolina to complete the investigation and certify a winner."

It will be weeks before the new state elections board will meet. A court ordered the old board be dissolved.

If a new election is ordered, that could take additional months, meaning the seat could be left empty for quite a while.

The blame game is well underway.
In other NC congressional news …
[same article]
Quote
North Carolina Congressman Walter Jones - a Republican representing the eastern part of the state, including the Outer Banks - was also not in Washington for Thursday's swearing in. His office says he is recovering from a medical issue.
[from elsewhere - multiple sources] He is "the 12-term North Carolina congressman perhaps best known for helping to popularize the term 'Freedom Fries' during the Iraq War." and "[he] will be sworn into the new session of Congress privately at his home in Farmville, North Carolina, … due to an unspecified illness. " and "the Congressional Record [show] House colleagues granted Jones a leave of absence for the remainder of the 115th term by unanimous consent. Jones missed every vote in November and December, and missed about a quarter of all votes from July to September." and "He made news earlier this week when he suggested that President Donald Trump use some of his wealth to help pay for the wall he wants to build along the southern U.S. border that has led to the partial government shutdown."

33
Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: January 01, 2019, 09:41:05 PM »
Tallahassee, Florida had a very wet December and therefore a wet 2018.  Of real note is the loss (from climatic normal) of heating degree days (99 - about 25% down) and the extra cooling degree days (497 - about 20% up). NOAA records

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: Poll: year-end JAXA extent ranking
« on: January 01, 2019, 09:12:14 PM »
I started out with 3-5, then changed on the last day of changes to 4-7 because I was tired of being overly pessimistic about Arctic sea ice.  Oh well.

35
The rest / Re: Seasons Greeting New Year 2019
« on: January 01, 2019, 09:08:44 PM »
And (a few hours ago), happy new year for everybody (who follows variations on the Julian calendar).
Quote
In 45 B.C., New Year’s Day is celebrated on January 1 for the first time in history as the Julian calendar takes effect.

36
The rest / Re: Seasons Greeting New Year 2019
« on: December 31, 2018, 03:35:29 PM »
Further to what Oren wrote, I want to extend 'good science for all' to the irregular posters, irrational contributors, disappointed contrarians, superstitious conspiracy theorists and everyone else!

Rabbit rabbit rabbit (for when the new month is local in your location) - but I attempt to follow my version of this tradition for cultural reasons...
Tor

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2018 sea ice area and extent data
« on: December 31, 2018, 07:10:21 AM »
Quote
P.S. I will be on holiday tomorrow and I will post on January 1st, 2019.
¡Happy new year!
By my calculations, 2019 starts in just under 5 hours.  Until then, Happy Old Year!

Oh yes, Arctic sea ice ... I predict we'll end the year in 2nd place.  (Unlike my vote in another thread)

38
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 31, 2018, 12:35:32 AM »

Seismic-Resistant Features of Machu Picchu
Quote
Some of the most sacred Inca buildings in Peru were constructed with precisely fitting stones held together by gravity alone. ... But Inca construction has a remarkable number of design features that protect buildings against collapsing in an earthquake.

I'm sure some of these features could be built into the concrete block structures.  On the other hand, the Incas did not build towers!

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: December 30, 2018, 10:15:39 PM »
Wow.  I've read about storing energy using a railway and a mountain or hill, but this would have less friction losses.  In some places they could quarry blocks of rock instead of dealing with the large CO2 issues associated with concrete (cement production)  - just as long as the material used is 'tough'.

'Wouldn't want to be near a 'fully charged' tower of blocks during an earthquake, though!  ::)

40
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Greenland 2018 melt season
« on: December 29, 2018, 04:50:33 PM »
Quote
Interesting? Not really.
That the end of 2018 is paralleling 2011 is interesting, I declare.   :)
If 2019 follows 2012's experience, this would bode ill for Greenland's ice as well as the ice floating on the Arctic Ocean.  (Did I make the "if" big enough?)

There have been a few recent comments on the ASIF relating to Fram Strait export, all rather speculative (other than graphs showing the fast early Greenland Sea SIE growth stalled to 'normal' growth).  Has anybody had a good look at how the current high over Greenland is affecting the sea ice off Greenland's darkest [northern] shores (including Nares and Fram Straits)?

41
Consequences / Re: Volcanoes
« on: December 29, 2018, 05:17:00 AM »
via a comment in Weather Underground's Cat 6 blog comes this GIF from
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/07cf71099d83b967d55f24914389de3c6c19b4424f99c86d56b2a8a52c3ce2bf.gif
It clearly shows the lower right corner going AWAL.


42
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: December 27, 2018, 04:41:28 PM »
The southern end of Bawden Ice Rise has a rim of open water now, per this Sentinel-hub image from December 19. The first image (of mp4) is the NDWI rendering of bands (to identify the setting), and the second image is the 'Natural Color' rendering (exact same area).

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 24, 2018, 06:37:39 PM »
Good of you to remember Buddy's bet.  For the graphically inclined (from Bloomberg):

44
Thanks, ASLR, for introducing us (me) to "Markov blankets".  It helps explain why I still drive a Prius (even if it is 17 years old).  I like that these 'things' can be numericalized, but that is above my pay-grade.

45
Antarctica / Re: Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica
« on: December 23, 2018, 03:01:16 PM »
Gerontocrat,
Thanks, but the way, for adding other relevant single years to the decadal charts. Most helpful, indeed!

If I had only "liked" the post (or the first one with added single years), would the additional line be deemed appreciated? Or the trajectory? Or the size of the new daily drop? Or 'G. is just a cool person'? Or 'I'm cooling his heels because he has kompromat on me'?   :) 8) ::) :-\ :-X

46
Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018-2019 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: December 19, 2018, 08:40:11 PM »
All it has to do is snow in Quebec (and not melt much next simmer, etc.).  The rest of NA can be dry or warm, as far as the "the next ice age glaciation is upon us" hypothesis goes, as I understand it.  (I believe this hypothesis will not pan out.) [Remember, we are in an interglacial period—the Holocene—of the current ice age.]

47
...
Also, the second image shows that Antarctic atmospheric methane concentrations are currently well more than twice that of any value in the past 800,000 years.
Wow!  The methane portion of the graph shows methane concentration over the 800,000 years (to 1950) ranging from about 330 to (it appears) 800 ppb, and is currently about 1860 ppb (per www.methanelevels.org).  (It is not, of course, "twice the value" of 1920's 950 ppb identified at that website!)

48
Antarctica / Re: PIG has calved
« on: December 19, 2018, 12:14:07 AM »

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: December 18, 2018, 10:59:13 PM »
When was West Texas Intermediate this low?  Ah, last year.
(images from Bloomberg.com)

50
Antarctica / Re: Rift in Larsen C
« on: December 18, 2018, 10:56:05 PM »
From an enlargement of the left side of A-68A (PolarView) dated 2018-12-17@23:41:58 (just over 18 minutes before midnight), I don't see current support for the cracks propagating in the suggested manner. Am I missing something?  But for sure, we'll see one way or another.  I do see the possibility of a ~2 x ~10 km scab braking off in this area. (sea ice on the left; A-68A on the right and top)

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