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Messages - Tor Bejnar

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So I'm allowed to acknowledge I LOLed at that exchange.  Some on this forum, it sometimes appears, think it is a sin to enjoy anything. 

A parallel from one of my worlds (the world of Quakerism):

I'd rather be a jolly St. Francis
Singing his canticle to the sun,
Than a dour, old sobersides Quake
Whose diet would appear to have been,
Spiritual Persimmons.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 14, 2019, 07:26:33 PM »
Water, water everywhere
Nor any drop to drink.
Sorry about that: wrong hemisphere.

Arctic sea ice / Re: "Stupid" Questions :o
« on: June 14, 2019, 06:48:58 PM »
B_'s melt pond code in Sentinel-hub Playground has an interesting 'feature'.  The edge of melt ponds have a darker pink rim.  I suspect the blue-green is 'melt pond' and the darker pink is 'saturated snow'.  What do you think of my suspicion? (Note scale in lower right corner - this is blown up big!)

It is especially dramatic as September image is from near (at) the end of the melting season (2016 has a higher snow/ice elevation) while the June image (2019) is from near the beginning of the melting season.

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 14, 2019, 03:05:43 PM »
Although without any formal accounting/bookkeeping training, I was the financial manager of a (non-profit) homeless shelter & crisis counseling center for several years (and have done other paid and volunteer bookkeeping).  What Crandles and others are saying makes perfect sense to me.  All formal accounting is done on an accrual basis, and that's how it works.

From the internet:
• Cash basis. Revenue is recorded when cash is received from customers, and expenses are recorded when cash is paid to suppliers and employees.
• Accrual basis. Revenue is recorded when earned and expenses are recorded when consumed.

I understand the boat sailed from Maryland, USA on June 13, 2011 (and returned 310 days later making only left turns):  I refer to Matt Rutherford on the St Brendan, an 8.2 m sail boat.  Everybody should watch the movie Red Dot on the Ocean.

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise Projections and Maps
« on: June 13, 2019, 09:47:04 PM »
I suspect "we" will find out a decade before 1/1/2100.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 13, 2019, 07:33:03 PM »
The attached piece of a graph posted by Gerontocrat in the 2019 sea ice area and extent data thread makes me think Poseidon intends to thread this needle for a while longer.  But what will happen July 5 (or then-abouts) when the 'needle' closes up?  Not worth a poll, but fun to watch.  (I know Oren commented on this possibility maybe weeks ago.)

Policy and solutions / Re: Tesla glory/failure
« on: June 13, 2019, 06:26:45 PM »
Neither one extreme nor the other: there is plenty of room in the middle but I guess that isn't particularly exciting.
This middle ground is, actually, exciting.  Extremes that won't happen or are no-brainers (e.g., space colonization this century, economically viable fission this decade, the President is a cheat, EVs taking over this decade) are what is not exciting (except that I'm excited by what Tesla is leading ...).

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: Old ice moving through Nares Strait
« on: June 13, 2019, 04:54:29 AM »
A summary posted elsewhere:
Who's to say if "Nares was closed (or not)" this year?  Certainly the Lincoln Sea Polynya arch prevented Arctic Ocean floes from entering the Strait for about a month.  We watched a 'race' in late February and March:
  • The Lincoln Sea arch stopped crumbling about February 17, 2019
  • The last 'old' ice in the Lincoln Sea entered Nares Straight about February 27
  • The last of the 'old' ice floes exited into Baffin Bay about March 26
  • The Lincoln Sea arch had several 'minor' edge collapses starting March 5
  • The March 5 edge ice entered Nares Strait about March 19
  • The Lincoln Sea arch totally collapsed about March 20

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Ocean salinity, temperature and waves
« on: June 13, 2019, 04:46:16 AM »
Who's to say if "Nares was closed (or not)" this year?  Certainly the Lincoln Sea Polynya arch prevented Arctic Ocean floes from entering the Strait for about a month.  We watched a 'race' in late February and March:
  • The Lincoln Sea arch stopped crumbling about February 17, 2019
  • The last 'old' ice in the Lincoln Sea entered Nares Straight about February 27
  • The last of the 'old' ice floes exited into Baffin Bay about March 26
  • The Lincoln Sea arch had several 'minor' edge collapses starting March 5
  • The March 5 edge ice entered Nares Strait about March 19
  • The Lincoln Sea arch totally collapsed about March 20

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 12, 2019, 08:59:49 PM »
Using the code "return [B8A*2,B03*1,B02*1]" that B_ shared the other day for use in Sentinel-hub Playground (where blue melt ponds stand out in sharp contrast to black open water and pink everything else), I note all the floes approaching Nares Strait have no melt ponding, while fast ice near the north end of Nares Strait is starting to.  (A little further south, there is much melt ponding on the Petermann Glacier tongue.)  Screen print from image dated June 10

Especially on the flow between the big one (half cut off at the top) and Ellesmere Island, a little blue is seen in this image on its upper right edge.  With enlargement (within Sentinel-hub), this blue disappears, unlike when enlarging the fjord on the lower part of this image.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: June 12, 2019, 08:20:02 PM »
I sometimes see attachments and sometimes don't.  Sometimes it is because my work environment blocks things (like twitter); other times, who knows?  I sometimes go to "Properties" and copy the URL (if not twitter, etc.) and paste into a new tab, like I did with the down-side up ice.  [Who knows were the top side went - I sure cannot see it!   ;D ]
Example attached.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Northwest Passage thread
« on: June 12, 2019, 03:35:42 AM »
I realized I could watch the 1-hour version of the movie, and just watched it with my social worker wife.  This link might work only in the USA. Once there I clicked on the "Watch the one-hour PTV version on line" button. It's a great documentary about turning an upside down life upside up, and there are images from the Arctic (of course).

I'm reminded of Matt Rutherford's record-setting circum-Americas voyage. (See August 9, 2011 comment on ASIB)  I followed Matt's voyage from then, but hadn't visited the website since about 2014, so I didn't know about the movie “Red Dot on the Ocean".

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 11, 2019, 05:32:27 PM »
Further to the Kane Basin fast ice disintegrating, there are several grounded icebergs (from Humboldt Glacier) with that fast ice, so until the newly mobile "thin" ice separates from them, the former fast ice won't move much. [see above link to 2017 post (up-thread), then look at following several posts]

Arctic background / Re: Arctic Maps
« on: June 11, 2019, 01:21:05 AM »
I usually do know the difference between "Arctic" and "Antarctic", but cross-posts are [something]. :)

And for those who like to see where things are, here is a nice map of the various seas in Antarctica as used in these graphs.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 10, 2019, 07:15:45 PM »
Hans Island is mostly steep-sided limestone or dolomite, so it likely erodes mostly from the sides.  Ice floes will basically cause below water line erosion, while freeze-thaw action, chemical weathering and surface runoff will affect the subaerial surface.  Per the internet chemical weathering of maybe "one-twentieth of a centimeter every 100 years" could be expected, but this would be in a more temperate climate, so I'll guess a 0.25 to 0.5 cm of loss this past 2,000 years from chemical weathering.

I'm really just guessing, but 500 good bumps or scrapes per year, so in 2,000 years, what, on the order of a centimeter or two? 

Antarctica / Re: Antarctic Icebergs
« on: June 10, 2019, 05:55:58 PM »
A68-A is rotating around a different center now.  I thought it would be closer to the island/peninsula, but it is also 'moving out'.  New PolarView image ('added' to the previous GIF) is from June 8.

The forum / Re: Suggestions
« on: June 10, 2019, 04:44:18 PM »
And to confound machines, some here use "[sup ]o[/sup ]" to get XoC, rather than using "Alt 167" to get XºC.

I'm awake and it's open. Good to see that Rick Thoman follows this forum.  ;)
Ever the statesman, I note Neven didn't say when!  And then he pulled a 'squirrel' so we wouldn't notice.   :o  ::) :P  ;D
Thanks for all the interesting comments and creative presentations. 

And remember not to drink and paddle drive, unless your vehicle has Full Self-Driving Capability.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 10, 2019, 04:07:30 PM »
… Hans can crack 1 million floes without taking a scratch.
Tor, help me here!
Sorry, B_, but have you heard of glaciers (made of ice) turning "V" shaped valleys into "U" shaped valleys?  It's because the ice, with entrained bits of rock, gouges out the rock.  So the million or so hits taken by Hans Island has eroded Hans Island, sand grain by sand grain - a little faster, probably, than if it was only water flowing past its shores.  (Freeze-thaw processes will be significant in loosening the surface for further erosion.)  I'm sure some of the 'thumps' can be felt by those who visit the island, and those mini- and micro-earthquakes will very slowly take their toll as well (but tiny compared with freeze-thaw).  I don't, however, expect to see any changes to Hans Island except on the hand-specimen level.

Here is a Sentinel-hub Playground 'close up' of the icy isthmus from a couple days ago.  Amazing how dense it it, given the individual floes are pretty much 25 meters across or less (much less, mostly). (scale in the lower right corner - you may need to scroll to see it)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 10, 2019, 03:09:05 AM »
Even the cracked floe near the lower left corner cracked further during the GIF.

I'm quite willing to believe you, Hap.  Pity it wasn't a sailboat.   ;D

...  open more or less one month earlier than any other year.
This, of course, is the main purpose of this poll - to help us recognize what's happening.  :'(

I would certainly feel that 'sailing a non-icebreaker' along the Alaskan coast has been possible for a few days now .. that was the original definition of 'open' .. b.c.
Well, Neven's interpretation of this ...  :P

Expect a very heavy calving next!!!!!
As promissed:
Just don't promise us an ice-free Arctic Ocean! :o

I'm sure there will be other large floes approaching Nares Strait this year, lots of them, in fact.  I do not expect any of them to block the Strait, however.  "First" and "Second" came remarkably close, though - I'm rather proud of them!  Back in the day (2012) we thought an honest-to-god iceberg that broke off of the Petermann Glacier would block the Strait, maybe for even a year, but it slipped by the islands.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Sea Ice Melting Affected by Microplastics?
« on: June 09, 2019, 05:20:12 AM »
The Arctic Ocean as a dead end for floating plastics in the North Atlantic branch of the Thermohaline Circulation
Andrés Cózar, et al. - Science Advances  19 Apr 2017
The subtropical ocean gyres are recognized as great marine accummulation zones of floating plastic debris; however, the possibility of plastic accumulation at polar latitudes has been overlooked because of the lack of nearby pollution sources. In the present study, the Arctic Ocean was extensively sampled for floating plastic debris from the Tara Oceans circumpolar expedition. Although plastic debris was scarce or absent in most of the Arctic waters, it reached high concentrations (hundreds of thousands of pieces per square kilometer) in the northernmost and easternmost areas of the Greenland and Barents seas. The fragmentation and typology of the plastic suggested an abundant presence of aged debris that originated from distant sources. This hypothesis was corroborated by the relatively high ratios of marine surface plastic to local pollution sources. Surface circulation models and field data showed that the poleward branch of the Thermohaline Circulation transfers floating debris from the North Atlantic to the Greenland and Barents seas, which would be a dead end for this plastic conveyor belt. Given the limited surface transport of the plastic that accumulated here and the mechanisms acting for the downward transport, the seafloor beneath this Arctic sector is hypothesized as an important sink of plastic debris.
Images (below) from the on-line PDF of Supplementary Materials

Arctic sea ice / Re: Sea Ice Melting Affected by Microplastics?
« on: June 09, 2019, 03:54:01 AM »
The Arctic Ocean Is Becoming A ‘Dead End’ For Your Trash
Huffington Post - 04/20/2017
Article includes pictures, but a caption includes "The Arctic Ocean is accumulating a high concentration of plastic, broken down over time into smaller bits called microplastics — such as those pictured here. " In other words, these pictures are not from the Arctic.


Plastic Soup
Unlike every other ocean, the Arctic Ocean has no trash vortexes. Surveys of the area have found over 300 billion pieces of plastic and micro plastics (Meyer). The Arctic does not have a garbage patch, "it is [a] giant trash patch" (Meyer).

The Arctic has the same median density of plastic pollution as other oceans, but has spread evenly throughout the ocean. Also, most of the plastic in the Arctic is in the form of micro plastics, which means they have been breaking down in the ocean for years. It can be concluded that the pollution of the Arctic has been brought by currents from other oceans such as the Pacific and Indian (Meyer).

More pictures at the weebly site

Consequences / Re: Sea Level Rise Projections and Maps
« on: June 09, 2019, 03:37:35 AM »
I could only see a sliver of the top of the sketch, so I went to the site, pretended to be able to agree to something in Dutch, and found the sketch, mostly reproduced below (I hope). Interesting article (in English).  Edit:  Now I can see the sketch above, so I'm deleting my version...

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: June 08, 2019, 05:01:22 PM »
I've never understood that graph.  Why does the "Rest of the World" get cut off - 'prematurely' terminating their greenhouse gas emissions  (God bless them every one.) while the big four get to blithely pass the date of catastrophe, dancing into the overheated sunset.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 08, 2019, 06:03:05 AM »
There was a comment in the Nares thread about how much snow appears to top the floes moving through the strait.  I wonder if one component of "less apparent melt ponding" is thicker snow cover.

Prior to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 Tallahassee was a station stop on Amtrak's Sunset Limited
Amtrak Could Resume Service in Tallahassee By 2020

Good morning America, how are you?
Still dwelling in yesterday.

The train used to go through Tallahassee on its way to New Orleans, but a hurricane years ago put an end to that.  :'( (But they say it's coming back!  :))

It is good fun that the apparent 'evaporation' (actually melting and/or dispersion) of the ice dam is occurring at the cusp of the two most-voted-in options.  I was obviously prescient with my decision to make somebody else (i.e., Neven) judge the transition from 'closed' to 'open'.  I may want him to sway one way while another coaxes him in another direction, but he is more used to handling such pressures than am I.

Long live Neven.  (hint, hint) ;)

And if you want to influence him, there is always the "Support and Donate" button on the Arctic Sea ice (ASI) Blog (on the right margin).

I may be suggesting bribery in jest, but I am seriously suggesting you support this project of Neven's (the ASI blog, forum and graphs - see links at top right of this page for Blog and Graphs).

Subglacial hydrological control on flow of an Antarctic Peninsula palaeo-ice stream
Robert D. Larter, et al., The Cryosphere, 13, 1583-1596,, 2019.
There is growing evidence that basal hydrology is a critical factor controlling the dynamic behaviour of ice streams, which account for most of the mass loss from large ice sheets. Understanding ice stream dynamics, including basal hydrology, is thus essential for quantifying ice sheet contributions to sea level change. Subglacial lakes and areas of elevated geothermal heat flux have been discovered in the onset regions of several large ice streams. Obtaining high resolution topographic data from modern ice stream beds that can reveal features associated with subglacial water flow is, however, logistically difficult and time consuming. In contrast, modern ship-mounted sonar systems can be used to obtain such data efficiently over extensive areas of former ice stream beds on continental shelves that ice has retreated from since the Last Glacial Maximum.
Here we present extensive new multibeam bathymetry data from the Anvers-Hugo Trough (AHT) west of the Antarctic Peninsula …

[references removed]

Basal hydrological systems play an important role in controlling the dynamic behaviour of ice streams. Data showing their morphology and relationship to geological substrates beneath modern ice streams are, however, sparse and difficult to collect. We present new multibeam bathymetry data that make the Anvers-Hugo Trough west of the Antarctic Peninsula the most completely surveyed palaeo-ice stream pathway in Antarctica. The data reveal a diverse range of landforms, including streamlined features where there was fast flow in the palaeo-ice stream, channels eroded by flow of subglacial water, and compelling evidence of palaeo-ice stream shear margin locations. We interpret landforms as indicating that subglacial water availability played an important role in facilitating ice stream flow and controlling shear margin positions. Water was likely supplied to the ice stream bed episodically as a result of outbursts from a subglacial lake located in the Palmer Deep basin on the inner continental shelf. These interpretations have implications for controls on the onset of fast ice flow, the dynamic behaviour of palaeo-ice streams on the Antarctic continental shelf, and potentially also for behaviour of modern ice streams.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 06, 2019, 05:36:50 PM »
At least at the 'southern' location of Petermann Glacier, melt ponding is far more advanced now than in previous 3 years (per Sentinel-hub Playground). (A similar GIF was posted in Petermann thread a few days ago, further out the tongue.) [click required]  You can also watch the crevasse on the right grow, year by year!

Policy and solutions / Re: Nuclear Power
« on: June 06, 2019, 04:20:54 PM »
Do I have to, Oren?  How do we all crowd into that place that is upstream (wind, water, ground water) from every long-term pollution source?

Arctic sea ice / Re: Sea Ice Melting Affected by Microplastics?
« on: June 06, 2019, 04:17:36 PM »
I imagine one aspect of tiny plastic particles in (Arctic) ice is its prism qualities, a robbing Peter to pay Paul sort of thing, where energy is focused (basically, on a molecular level, as the plastic particles are tiny).  But this is physics beyond my ken.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: June 06, 2019, 03:56:03 PM »
I'm certain it's NSIDC changing its mask.  (Or some New Aged fisherfolk go out every May 31 with blow torches.)

The rest / Re: Pareidolia
« on: June 06, 2019, 03:42:15 PM »
I see a Picasso horse (the head's ears at 76ºN 130ºW) with some (blue) 'dirt' flying behind.

So, you didn't vote the way Neven did, I see.  (And Neven, by chance, voted the way I did, so you can guess where my loyalties lie [for the moment].) 

Isn't it incontrovertibly true that I'm - whoever is the "I" speaking - that I'm right?  ::) :P

Uniquorn's and Espen's posts in January fairly show the connection between the crevasses on the NE side of the Petermann Glacier tongue and the mid-glacier lateral crevasse.  Nice to see it with a different satellite.

Looking at JayW's animation, it shouldn't take long now. But I won't mind if the ice can hold out three more days.  ;)
… I'll let Neven be the impartial determiner of when the Alaskan coast area is deemed clear enough of ice. …
It never crossed my mind (until now) that Neven can just declare that June 8 will be the first day a boat can sail where there is currently an ice dam.  Heck, why wait for evidence with such power!  :o ;D

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 03, 2019, 03:12:28 AM »
Thanks, guys.

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 03, 2019, 03:11:55 AM »
Down in the Kennedy Channel, Second 'disappeared' at Hans Island.  Was it clear enough when its tried to slide by the mid-channel island (but was too big to do so) to get hourly images? The Sentinel images went from 'approaching' to 'nothing to see'  (keep on moving folks, nothing to see, next ...). I was so looking forward to Second playing bumper cars with First.  Except for the couple of days of First practicing the balancing act with Hans, and Second taking a break in Hall Basin (while making a pass at Joe [Island]), another disappointment. 

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: June 02, 2019, 08:43:22 PM »
My good friend Ann B. Blake died expectedly (cancer) early this morning.  Her family wrote on her Facebook:
Ann passed away early this morning. To the end she was cared for by friends and family and was tender and generous with her fading strength.

She brought such light to endeavors.  We were family friends and did Sacred Harp singing and contra dancing together.  This place has become less livable.  RIP, Ann.

Rising Sea Level - Key Points
Unprecedented. No human experience.
Probably pedantic, but when the Black Sea flooded about 7,200 years ago (so the theory I believe goes), the people along its shore had to skedaddle, with sea level rising noticeably, but slow enough to take portable belongings.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019 melting season
« on: June 02, 2019, 03:30:29 PM »
Ice in the Barents marching to it's demise.  I'm guessing this is still being counted as extent?
Looks like mass desertion to me.  :'(

Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 02, 2019, 03:11:14 PM »
I think there is a going out of business sale at PolarDisplay*.

* - not to be confused with any internet-listed enterprise.

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