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Messages - Paul Beckwith

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Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 08, 2015, 10:18:39 PM »
I am not sure where to post this, but I think that the extremely warm North Pacific Ocean temperatures (with algae blooms and marine life die-off) is putting lots of warm water into the Arctic. Hansen's recent paper related AMOC and Southern-MOC to ice cap melt but does not say a word about North Pacific-MOC. I discuss this in 2 videos:

@PaulHBeckwith: North #Pacific #Ocean BlowTorch; Part 1/2 https://t.co/at1PRk6P97 #climate #japan2015 #japan #alaska #Vancouver #bcpoli #California #drought

@PaulHBeckwith: North #Pacific Ocean BlowTorch: Part 2/2 https://t.co/oQ8DjDh2xr #climate #climatechange #globalwarming #drought #California #Japan #weather

I am pretty sure that the root cause of the blob is the enormous Arctic Temperature amplification from rapidly declining Arctic sea ice loss and spring snow cover decline, leading to cascading latent heat feedbacks. I elaborate on in the videos. El Niño magnifies the blob but does not cause it. As the El Niño magnifies into fall and winter and the Arctic starts to cool (later than normal) the likelihood of large cyclonic activity heading into the Arctic basin is greater...

2
Thanks Peter; I was not aware of the problems. Which time period is problematic; are today's maps decent?

3
Did anybody on these forums anticipate the massive loss of thick ice this year for the two weeks following June 25th, 2015 as shown clearly on my video? This loss seems to have been caused by warm water undercutting the ice, and it extended far into the ice pack. What stopped the loss extending further across the ice pack? Could such pulses continue, and destroy the ice? To assess this, one needs to assess the water temperatures in the North Pacific, and the causes for high temperatures. It is not just the powerful El Niño. I discussed this in a video here, and will discuss in more detail soon...

When #scientists call vast ocean regions "the blob" they are stumped. Video: Why vast regions of Pacific are saunas? https://t.co/0HiHfySzeZ

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 07, 2015, 08:35:02 AM »
Can the satellites differentiate between MYI and ridged younger ice? If not, then is it possible there is no MYI left? If yes, then how do they do this?

5
In my video, notice that I do not make a guess on sea ice minimum. I let the observer decide what they want. I thought the ice would all go a few years ago (2013), so I am reluctant to come up with any logical number.

However, I think that when it goes it will be extremely rapid, and totally amaze everybody, including people that actively follow it; none more intensely than those on this forum.

To have a bit of fun; I picked zero for this year (again!). A few long duration cyclones could rip everything to shreds, and very warm water could extend the melt season a week. Who knows; it is a total guess. We are trying to come up with a number on a highly nonlinear process. The sea ice will be there, until it is suddenly not:)

6
This video may help in your guess on remaining Arctic sea ice this year...

Will #Arctic #Sea #Ice Vanish this Summer 2015? https://t.co/RXE69M5p0Z

My guess: zero 

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 06, 2015, 02:46:41 AM »
In this video I compare Arctic Sea Ice thickness now with the previous 3 years...
 
Will Arctic Sea Ice Vanish this Summer 2015? https://t.co/RXE69M5p0Z

8
Who is still thinking, that we will see another record this year and why?
  I stick with my predictions of a complete ice slaughter.  A few massive cyclones should help clear out the Arctic basin.

9
Very impressive video, thanks for posting.  The melt lake basically drained out catastrophically on August 6, 2012 as seen in the video; must have been from an ice dam failure...

10
Permafrost / Re: What is Happening under a Cloud of Methane?
« on: June 27, 2013, 10:45:21 PM »
Hello Apocalypse4Real,
Are you generating the Google Earth views of CO2 concentrations yourself or is there a link to this?  Do you have these views for CH4 near the surface?
Thanks, Paul

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: Vote with your guts - And if... ?
« on: May 03, 2013, 08:06:44 AM »
Since 2008, I have been predicting 2013-14, based on the changes in the forecasts from "ice free in 100 years" in 2002 to "ice free in 50 years" in 2008. It became clear that the models were under predicting the changes in the arctic by a factor of ten. Predictions since then have hugged that line.

Loved this rationale; in fact I have done the exact same thing since about 2007. 

I have also used this logic to look at Greenland melt, and came up with a total melt completion date of about 2070...

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: Vote with your guts - And if... ?
« on: May 03, 2013, 08:02:15 AM »
I think that the ice will be essentially gone this year, as I have publicly stated and blogged about in March. 

Not only that, I suspect that within a month or two there will be a new vote as to how many days will be ice free this summer, 5, 10, 15,...,30? (if I had to guess now I would say 30).

Then a vote will soon follow on how many days in summer/2014 will be ice free, and I would guess 90 for that.

Finally, the vote will be on when the entire Arctic will be ice free year round, and I would say by 2020. 

And then we are in a new climate world...short and sweet abrupt change...of course these numbers all assume that no geoengineering occurs and the supervolcano under Yellowstone stays dormant...

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