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Messages - John_The_Elder

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Arctic sea ice / Re: meaningless freezingseason/melting season chatter.
« on: August 22, 2019, 02:35:57 PM »
I think you see a very large Alaskan Husky!

Define "cool" 0 deg C, 32 deg F or 273.5 deg  K  ;D

Walking the walk / Re: Ecosystem Restoration Cooperative
« on: March 21, 2019, 09:22:44 PM »
For anyone who doesn't mind searching the internet to "try before buying" united diversity coop has a ton of information.

Great to see you back. You are one of the best! :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: October 13, 2018, 08:32:17 PM »
Eyeballing would be easiest, using the color legend with the graph or advanced calculus with a calculator or abacus :) JTE

SUBMIT VOTE button visible in Chrome.

I agree that thin ice will fragment, but those fragments will not increase the net ice thickness unless force is applied through compression.  Absent that, unless either gravity changed or a surface dimension changed such that it is less than thickness, fragments are not going to flip.

Don't be a fool. Life rafts, planks and similar flat objects are well known for floating edge-on.  It's also well known that when they do so, they cover more of the water's surface rather than less.
"The sad, sorry, terrible thing about sarcasm. It's really funny."

Brandon Sanderson

I thought ocean currents were not merely surface water phenomena. Indeed, that the volume of water moving in these currents made the mightiest land-based rivers appear as tiddly streams. A metre or two of surface ice not much of an obstacle, so bottom melting can continue until the heat is exhausted?

And I am sure that ASIF has the people who have the data on the warm and cold currents flowing in the Arctic together with the staggering amounts of heat and cold transported within them. Only with that and assessments of the quantity of heat absorbed by insolation into the ocean can reasoned conclusions be drawn?
Alright. There are many sorts of currents. Yes currents are complicated but there is an unavoidable tendency of warmer saltier water to sink in the presence of colder fresher water, and that happens at the big slopes of the Basins of the Arctic Ocean. That this colder fresher water exists on top of it all is one interesting thing, which seems to me is not going to change in one season, and therefore I don't believe in any blue ocean event anytime soon. What seaicesailor has depicted in red looks to me as a very reasonable boundary of a very bad season nowadays. Warm currents cannot melt ice over the main Arctic Basins (the Canada Basin is a special case that we can discuss at length).

I believe that you have your facts reversed above:Deep Water Masses: The deep Atlantic is relatively salty (34.9). This water is derived from the sinking of chilled saline surface water in the northern North Atlantic. The cooling makes the surface water dense, forcing it to sink, or convect into the deep ocean, and spread southward at depth. It is called North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW).

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: December 02, 2016, 10:51:43 PM »
I beg to differ on the "same phase" . If they were in phase they would cross the zero degree line at the same time.
Read again. They are offset, each one has its "zero line" at a different height.

John, as Oren has already stated, your assertion is in error, but it's an understandable mistake that you are making.

The blue sine wave was generated using the RAD and SIN functionality in Excel, with the values (in degrees) shown along the X-axis as the seed. (Actually, to generate a reasonably smooth curve, 5 degree steps were employed, but, for clarity, the display has been set to show 20 degree steps.) To this, a constant offset of 0.05 was added to generate the red sine wave, and an offset of 0.1 used to generate the green sine wave.

Such an action does NOT, and CANNOT produce any phase shift. (Or, for that matter, any frequency or amplitude shift.)

If you were to look at the 90 and 450 degree markings, you would see that this is where the maximum values occur for each of the three curves. Similarly, the minimum values for each curve appear at the 270 and 630 degree marks.

At the 0, 180, 360, 540 and 720 degree marks, each of the curves is at precisely the halfway point between the min and max - for the appropriate curve. The red curve therefore has an offset of 0.05 above the nominal Zero value on the Y-axis at each of these positions along the X-axis. Similarly, the green curve shows a value of 0.1 on the Y-axis at the identical position along the X-axis.

If one were to expand the graphic, it could be seen that the "Zero crossing" for the red curve occurs just under 3 degrees "late" on the down slope, and the same amount "early" on the upward slope. The green curve however occurs just under 6 degrees "late" on the down slope, and just under 6 degrees "early" on its upward trajectory.

These values of just under 3 and just under 6 degrees (closer to 2.87 and 5.74) equate to a mathematical quantity known as the Arcsin (or Inverse Sine) of, respectively, the 0.05 and 0.10 offsets.
Thanks for the clarification, these old eyes are not as sharp as they once were.

Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: December 02, 2016, 04:35:37 PM »
I beg to differ on the "same phase" . If they were in phase they would cross the zero degree line at the same time. The green sine wave is leading,followed by red with blue at zero degrees, zero amplitude.

John :)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016/2017 freezing season
« on: November 25, 2016, 02:45:17 AM »

The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: November 02, 2016, 10:59:11 PM »
For most of us in North America we get to turn the clock back 1 hour this weekend. That will give us an extra 6 months to solve this. ;)

Consequences / Re: Places becoming less livable
« on: October 18, 2015, 10:53:45 PM »
"Sea level rise will swallow Miami, New Orleans, study finds"
We may have to change some lyrics to "Way down UNDER in New Orleans". :(


Walking the walk / Re: Open to destruction of an idea
« on: February 17, 2015, 12:20:37 AM »
Because I can tell you, for me that does not add up.

Did I get the calculation wrong.  Is it not possible for the 100kg weight to expel that 100l of water at 7m depth?  I calculate the pressure created as 5kg/sqcm

1000 (weight)/200 (sq cm piston)"

I believe that you will need a 2000 (sq cm piston) if you are moving it .5 meters. This will give you the 100000ml that you are trying to move. Then your pressure is reduced by a factor of 10!

Walking the walk / Re: Open to destruction of an idea
« on: February 16, 2015, 10:14:57 PM »
I do not see where you are including the buoyancy of the air tube attached to your chamber. Are you using compressed air to feed your system? You do not include a rate of work, will this be accomplished over 7 seconds, 7 min, 7 hours, or 7 life times? A lot missing.....

Consequences / Re: IPCC possible scenario: 9 C over next century or so
« on: January 01, 2015, 12:16:27 AM »
A study by Peters et al 2012 show that the USA equivalent CO2 emissions have in fact increased by 7% (2007-2012) when trade is taken into account. American consumption of goods manufactured overseas is increasing.
See Slide #8 fro graph,-828,216,-828,216

Consequences / Re: IPCC possible scenario: 9 C over next century or so
« on: December 31, 2014, 04:26:29 PM »
If the USA is simply exporting its carbon footprint to China, they are not helping in the global reduction. As USA emissions go down , China are going up. An interesting article at:
Happy New Year to all.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2014 sea ice area and extent data
« on: July 29, 2014, 07:38:38 PM »
The most probable answer to why area has increased is that with all the melt, the ice can no longer contain the large melt ponds  and they have drained. The bottom of the melt ponds are recognized as ice and area goes up. The ice (at the bottom of the pond) is probably not in good condition and may be prone to melting out in the near future. Then area will go back down.....

Arctic sea ice / Re: The Slow Transition
« on: July 27, 2014, 12:24:42 AM »
I have been lurking, reading, and learning for a few years and I thought I would join the discussion. With the transition from MYI to FYI are we not entering an era where the ice will melt at lower at lower temps. At the same time SSTs are rising at a very rapidly. As well " The Arctic-wide melt season has lengthened at a rate of 5days decade from 1979 to 2013" link...
With the extra time to melt, lower melt point, less time for winter ice to grow are we not approaching the tipping point. All it will take is a big summer storm or a warm winter and the Fat Lady will climb onto the stage.
Back to lurking

Consequences / Re: Water wars
« on: June 01, 2014, 12:07:12 AM »
Anne can you verify the source of your information in Post #7? I can not find any mention of this in main stream news.


Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: April 24, 2014, 06:59:50 PM »
Hi folks,

Here is a link that describes the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)


Policy and solutions / Re: The Manhattan Project concept
« on: April 21, 2014, 02:34:32 PM »
As for China showing evidence they are beginning to work on this, nothing could be further from the truth.

I'd like to think that the following graph is a sign of the decreasing coal expansion. Incidentally did you see that they planning massive coal mining shutdowns.


You are indulging in some wishful thinking. At 3% growth rate for 2014, if we extrapolate this rate over the next 23 years China will have doubled their coal consumption ( if they can find it).
A 3% growth rate is not sustainable! Take a look at the presentation by Dr. Albert Bartlett @


Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: July 05, 2013, 03:43:40 AM »
One major implication of an "ice free" artic is the formation of the "North Atlantic Deep Water" (NADW). This is one of the main drivers for Thermohaline Circulation.
It is possible that a disruption of the NADW could lead to extreme climate change, with less CO2 sinking to the ocean depths. Not very nice for the creatures of the earth.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Predictions
« on: June 15, 2013, 04:37:49 AM »
That is more than your neck you are sticking out. You may be one of the first
" artic ice singing eunuchs " ;)

Arctic sea ice / Re: Land snow cover effect on sea ice
« on: May 21, 2013, 07:06:01 PM »
Perhaps we are looking at the pirate issue in reverse. Pehaps the "cold blooded" pirates were unable to evolve with the rise in temperature, hence their nunbers decrease. If the Somali pirates have somehow evolved to "warm hearted" members of the same family, we should soon see a sudden increase in the number of pirates.

Consequences / Re: Arctic Amplification and Extreme Weather
« on: May 04, 2013, 03:06:59 AM »
This is the Jet Stream moving that snow north west.

Arctic sea ice / Re: Records and oddities
« on: March 04, 2013, 09:14:39 PM »
Dave C,
When I look at Piomass ice volume plot @
I do not see a plateau from 2007 to present. I see less ice. If it melted in situ or was transported elsewhere it is no longer with us.


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