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Messages - Artful Dodger

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1
The rest / Drumpfhouse
« on: October 01, 2017, 12:42:23 PM »
Mark Felt "outed" himself just within the last year.  Before that...only the two journalists and their editor knew the identity of deepthroat all these years.
Hi Buddy, how are you?

Mark Felt actually died back in 2008. After decades of speculation, Vanity Fair published an article in 2015 naming Felt as the source of the Watergate leaks. Indeed, the editor of WaPo from the Watergate era confirmed the VF story shortly thereafter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Felt#Deep_Throat_revealed

I see an interesting modern parallel in the Drumpfhouse. So many leaks, and so timely. The source must be a highly placed individual, but who is left that has not lost their own head?  ???

Cheers,
Lodger

2
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 12, 2017, 10:30:57 AM »
It is a sad truth that the USA dodged the bullet, by only taking a $290 billion hit from Harvey & Irma.  We (the USA) are playing Russian Roulette with hurricanes, which (as Hansen warned in 'Storms of My Grandchildren') cannot end well

Hi ASLR.

Thank-you for taking a moment to reply to my brief comment. I surely appreciate all the work you've done helping provide accurate coverage of these increasingly dangerous storms. Indeed, Hansen's book has been on my mind these last 2 weeks as we watch these unfolding disasters.

A childhood friend of mine moved to Sugarland, TX (west suburbs of Houston) about 20 years ago and was flooded out last week by Harvey.  I recall him telling me about 5 years ago that 'there might be something to this global warming stuff'.

In a sense, it is the trap all wealthy nations fall into: unwilling to change anything in the short run, but willing to risk everything in the long run. Sad.

Indeed, the Denier-in-Chief will soon be golfing at his lightly-touched Palm Beach pair-a-dice, oblivious to the growing risk surrounding it.

I guess that makes us (collectively) his fossil fools.   :'(

3
Consequences / Re: Hurricane season 2017
« on: September 11, 2017, 02:05:30 PM »
TFW ur .


4
The forum / Re: [Solved] How to embed a video ?
« on: December 29, 2016, 11:22:34 PM »
Testing embedded YouTube sample video:

[youtube]g6PV7Rvr7KU[/youtube]


RESULT: doesn't seem to be working.  :-[

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« on: October 19, 2016, 01:05:11 PM »
Thanks Lodger! By the way, has the era of procrastination come to a close yet?
Hi Bud,

As Winston Churchill once said:
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
The ratification of Paris 2015 is IMHO the end of the beginning. Don't expect Big Carbon to give up without a fight though. Inertia wasn't just discovered by Newton, but also by Machiavelli (deniers fight to keep the status quo and prevent action).

: budmantis
P.S. Question: Why don't you post more often? I've always enjoyed your contributions to the blog and forum.
Ahaha, good question! In fact, you may notice that I am User ID #4 on this site, behind Fred (the Administrator), Admin (Fred's other account), and Neven (our Grand Poobah).  :-*

This site has grown in size and influence. Joe Romm, founder of the Climate Progress blog, reposts articles and visualizations created by our membership. We have PhD scientists as regular contributors. We have strength in ideas and in strength in numbers. We have achieved critical mass.

Like Lise Meitner's big idea, our ideas can no longer be ignored. Indeed, Big Carbon and their political henchmen ignore them at our peril. I'd blame Wall Street, but they're too coked up to notice we're about to slam into that wall at 500 kts ppm.

Personally, I like Elon Musk's approach. Use the mechanisms of banking and big business to green the economy. Indeed, let's build the machine that takes down the climate denier machine. That's why I post here. It's what I can do.

But I don't post here for personal agrandization. Ego is a trap, just like excessive wealth, or carbon. When I see a unique opportunity to contribute, I do post (2 new ideas coming soon).

But you guys are already so good, and on top of things all the time. That is my personal satisfaction, seeing the people of good faith contributing openly in this forum.

Thanks, everyone! ;)

P.S. Joe Romm is also fond of saying we need a WWII level of mobilization to deploy green energy solutions. An apropriate analogy, indeed.

Let's ROLL!

Frank Capra - Youtube 3:50"

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« on: October 18, 2016, 06:26:43 AM »
A-Team: That old satellite image of the Lincoln Sea... Any idea of when that image was taken?

Hi folks,

A quick Google Image search reveals this image was taken 2012-03-13, approx. 90 min before this one (notice the sea smoke at the N. entrance to Nares Straight, and the position of various unique sea ice floes and leads):

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Lincoln/201202261322.NOAA.jpg

Hat tip to forum member Arctic.io for the original blog post, still available on their website.  8)

Cheers,
Lodger

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 12, 2016, 03:54:23 AM »

After reaching the North Pole, they've gone South a bit.

Which is, of course, the only way they could go.  :)
Aha ha! Excellent!   ;D  But Oden's helo's can climb, too. Or if they were in an LA class boat, they could dive... ::)

Or i guess technically, Oden could also sink.  :'(

Cheers!
Lodger

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« on: September 05, 2016, 12:10:27 PM »
Lodger:

...I think you meant "Vagaries".

Cheers,

Bud

Yeah Buddy, I mean a lot of things in retropect... :D

To paraphrase Rev. Spooner, 'if you throw enough shit against the wall some of it will stink'

Cheers!
Lodger

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« on: September 05, 2016, 06:19:42 AM »
Hi folks,

A few points on PIOMAS:
  • it's silly to compare PIOMAS and AMSR2 charts. PIOMAS is based on NSIDC data (you know, the 25km res. data?). It's produced from the same source as the "blue marble" SIC chart from Aug 25, 2016 attached below
  • PIOMAS claims +/- 1K km^3 accuracy. They are primarily concerned with representing the trend reliably, not the varagies of seasonal wx
  • if you REALLY want some insight into current volume, you should be looking at SMOS thickness data. When sea ice is <50 cm thick, SMOS is quite accurate, it's not a model (it's DATA), it's released daily, and there's lot's of <50 cm thick sea ice out there ATM.
Have fun storming the Castle, boys (and girls)!

Cheers,
Lodger


10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 05, 2016, 05:47:35 AM »
A reasonably dramatic Arctic sea ice concentration map today from University of Bremen: the purple-coloured 'ice sanctuary' of closely packed ice off the Canadian Arctic coast can no longer be said to extend to the North Pole.

Hi Slow Wing,

The worst part about those yellows and oranges on the SIE map is that wind causes the maximum affect on sea ice drift at around 80% concentration.

The damage is still being done, with effects reaching beyond Summer 2016. Let wait to see what the transpolar drift does this Fall/Winter. We could lose a lot of hard-won MYI (ie: drift thru Fram, Nares, CAA channels) even after the Summer SIE minimum is well past.

Regards,
Lodger

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 03, 2016, 04:14:48 AM »
...The entire PDF is utterly fascinating and has some interesting implications.

Hi John,

Good powerpoint, very important topic. Nice find!

Indeed, you can stream the Author delivering this talk at the Banff Centre in Nov. 2012 (or download the entire 130 mb video) from this page:

http://www.birs.ca/events/2012/5-day-workshops/12w5073/videos/watch/201211061638-Langford.html

Cheers mate!
Lodger

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 03, 2016, 02:36:07 AM »
Eagerly awaiting your musings.

Terry

Hi Terry,

Why wait? This new theory is already on YouTube: :-[



Pardon, couldn't resist a little Python-ery... We now return to your regularly scheduled Ragnarok.

When the time comes, I will start a separate topic for this discussion (thanks to the OP for your indulgence 4 now). But as a tease we'll begin by trying to understand an important piece of the puzzle: the 3D structure of these new, persistent Arctic cyclones:

AIZAWA, Takuro, and Hiroshi L. TANAKA. "Three Dimensional Structures of the Arctic Cyclones." (2016).

Attached below is Fig.2F from this study, showing a vertical profile (side-on) view of one of these hybrid beasts:

Fig.2 Radius-height cross sections of azimuthal mean - (f) temperature deviation (℃) for the case 2008. The figures are time average during the life cycle (00Z 10 June – 18Z 26 June, 2008).

I use the term hybrid to describe these Arctic cyclones because they mix the features of the two other types: a cold-core at low levels (including fronts) like a mid-lattitude cyclone, and a warm core at upper levels (200-300 hPa). Both elements converge in the troposphere  at the 500 hPa level where the storm outflow occurs, reinforcing the existing Polar vortex and making it highly persistant. Further energy is drawn in at low levels by converging surface lows, which add large amounts of fuel in episodic bursts as we saw throughout August 2016.

More to come as my time allows. If there is enough interest and feedback, I may turn this into a post on the main ASI blog.

Cheers,
Lodger

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 02, 2016, 10:55:01 PM »
The reference from Wipneus is buried somewhere up the thread, but this is a different product and its calibrated against visual observation of melt ponds. Its also a very noisy calibration, even by  microwave standards.

Oh, okay. Thanks, Richard.

Cheers, mate!
Lodger  ;D

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: September 02, 2016, 11:38:31 AM »
I've wondered if Eckmann pumping could maintain a warm, humid, (compared to the Arctic environment) ice free core to a persistent Arctic cyclone. E.g., a reversed flow polar cell with rising low pressure air driven by ocean circulation instead of a sinking high pressure cell driving by radiative heat loss.

Hi tp50, welcome to the Forum!

You ask a very astute question, one I've been working on for 5+years. We have no mechanism to explain our paleoclimate evidence of a perenially ice-free Arctic ocean: palms trees and crocodiles on Ellesmere Island, Lilly plants growing in the Central Arctic Basin, etc.

The ocean/atmophere system is a heat engine, and we need to understand the pump. Something kept things warm at the Pole, and we need to ask if that's were our future climate is headed.

I hope to have more to say on this question by October. So keep thinking, and asking "Hey what?"  8)

Cheers,
Lodger

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: September 01, 2016, 04:31:40 AM »
Melt ponds are what its calibrated against.

Hi Richard,

AMSR-2 data has not been calibrated yet. For now, ASI products from JAXA, Uni-Bremen, Uni-Hamburg et.al just reuse the P0 and P1 coefficients calculated for the AMSR-E 89 GHz channel.

I'm sure they'll get around to it, but budgets, yada yada... Recalibration may have to be completed after the service life of GCOM-W1, the bird AMSR-2 flies on.

So it'll do for now, while at least providing data consistency if not the utmost possible accuracy.  8)

Cheers,
Lodger

16
Consequences / Re: North Atlantic Ocean Currents
« on: April 02, 2015, 08:11:46 AM »
O/T Anyone who does not believe in the hockey stick has a problem. Every study I have seen in regards to climate change has that sharp dangerous curve no matter what the topic is.
Hi, LRC

Okay then, two Giants when it comes to Winter ice: Jean Béliveau, and MM.  :)

Nonetheless, and in our Arena, the Hockey Stick Lives.

Cheers,
Lodger

17
Consequences / Re: North Atlantic Ocean Currents
« on: April 02, 2015, 06:03:49 AM »
The paper is paywalled, but there is already several blog posts in what looks to be a coordinated release

Hi RaenorShine,

That's a good paper on a very important topic. There is now a PDF available at Penn State: (thx MM, u da man!)  8)

Rahmstorf, Stefan, et al. "Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation." Nature Climate Change (2015).

Cheers,
Lodger

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: Sep 1963 SIE from Nimbus I satellite data
« on: September 16, 2014, 03:44:42 PM »
There's some news on this at http://cires.colorado.edu/news/press/2014/nimbus.html

It sounds like new data is up at the NSIDC now.

Thank you for posting that, Sonia.  8)  Here is the YouTube video released by CIRES on Aug 28, 2014: (the gentlemen interviewed was NIMBUS 1-7 Operations Manager some 50 years ago!)

50 years ago, NASA launched Nimbus to study Earth from space. Now, experts at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (part of CIRES), are recovering valuable data and images from old, long-lost film, and expanding their understanding of sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic. Learn more from CIRES on the 1-year anniversary of Nimbus' first image:



19
Policy and solutions / Re: What particularly causes "The Crash"
« on: February 12, 2014, 07:40:40 AM »
Hi Terry,

There's an interesting study from DOE in the '80s that you might want to read: (notice that one of the author's is Joe Romm)

NUCLEAR CRASH: The U.S. Economy After Small Nuclear Attacks. M. Anjali Sastry. Joseph J. Romm. Kosta Tsipis. Program in Science and Technology for International Security. June, 1987

This paper discusses what is likely to happen in a intermediate case, short of total irrecoverable damage. The emphasis is on the break down of the economic system into regional areas, w/o much outside assistance or communication.

Focus on reading the scenario called the "Counter-Energy Attack". It assumes a massive loss of fossil fuel infrastructure occurs, and of course there is no readily available alternative source of energy.

Overall, an excellent primer to the issues you are exploring.

Cheers!
Lodger

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: New data set: Arctic Lead Area Fraction
« on: December 29, 2013, 12:34:53 AM »
Thanks for creating this topic, Wipneus. I'm curious how useful a leads time series is for predicting end-of-Summer sea ice extent.

21
Science / Re: Solar irradiance
« on: September 27, 2013, 07:33:36 AM »
Anyone know is TSI variation during solar cycle is sun power variation, or just sun power distribution variation?

Hi lanevn,

I do not know if the Sun's energy output varies or just the distribution. Perhaps this has been asked by the SOHO researchers? Might be a place to begin your search.

I do note that the Sun's cycles seem to resonant with Jupiter's orbital period, so their may well be a gravitational component to the physics driving the solar output cycle. Just a thought.  8)

22
HIB,

Could you find this paper <snip>
Hi Lennart,

In case you, or others, haven't noticed, Heiseniceberg has not posted here since May 2013. But Google Scholar finds a freely available copy of your request:

Meehl, Gerald A., et al. "Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise." Nature Climate Change (2012).

The Supplemental information is also available in this PDF document.

P.S. Any paper older than 6 months from the publication date (the sequester period for the Journal) is usually available for free on the web, and can be found quickly with Google Scholar8)

23
(Using https:)
Hi Sigmetnow,

If you just use HTTPS to login in, and while reading personal messages, all the other operations work well over plain HTTP.

24
Consequences / Re: Lessons from hurricane Sandy
« on: September 01, 2013, 12:14:33 AM »
lodger,

No thanks! The only authority I desire is logic.

Ironically, that's the only requirement for this volunteer position. Which also holds no authority, except that earned through the evenhanded application of reason. At SkS, respect is earned.

25
Consequences / Re: Lessons from hurricane Sandy
« on: August 31, 2013, 02:50:21 AM »
made me a moderator.
Hi Verge,

If that's your true interest, why not step up to bat at Skeptical Science? ASI Blog contributor Daniel Bailey does just that (he's here on the Forum too, if you want to send a PM). He can hook you up!  8)

26
Consequences / Re: Lessons from hurricane Sandy
« on: August 30, 2013, 01:13:42 PM »
Hi Verge,

I don't waste any time on AmWX but, how did this get you banned?  ???

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 29, 2013, 12:57:17 PM »
Oh ha ha. Shipping routes!  ::)

Sovcomflot GUARANTEES passage through the Northern Sea Route for 6 months per year now.

28
Consequences / Re: Toward a complete list of climate feedbacks
« on: August 29, 2013, 07:22:39 AM »
The topic of off-planet migration is quite popular in 'Cli-fi' these days.


29
The rest / Re: Fukushima leak emergency: LIVE UPDATES
« on: August 23, 2013, 12:28:39 PM »
August 21

02:59 GMT: Eighteen children from the Fukushima Prefecture have been found to have thyroid cancer, while 25 others are suspected of having the illness, Japan’s NHK website reported. Medical examinations are being conducted on all 360,000 children from the area who were aged 18 and younger at the time of the 2011 accident. The findings were reported by a prefectural panel, which is looking into the impact of radiation on those living in the affected area.
http://rt.com/news/fukushima-leak-emergency-updates-171/

Note that all of the radioactive Iodine-131 would have vanished by now, due to it's short 8-day half life. These cancers are due to ingestion of iodine (ie: drinking contaminated water) while the reactor was still critical, or shortly after, say 30 days or so.

That's assuming the reactor is not still critical. Gamma burst info is held close to the vest in Japan. And you know what they say about assuming...  :-[

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 23, 2013, 09:34:22 AM »
I have considered processing all the way to the top MODIS resolutions
<snip>
my main constraint (download bandwidth)
Hi Dan, great work!

Couldn't you use the 4 km 3-6-7 daily data to select the 250 m data to download? Then you'd only be downloading large files that you will actually use.

Thanks again for these outstanding derivatives.  :D

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 21, 2013, 12:33:19 AM »
I'm not sure where but someone commented on the look of the ice across the CAB. They noted that the ice had generally large and dispersed rounded flows surrounded by mush (bergy bits, rotten ice etc.) They suggested this appearance over such a wide expanse was new.
Yes, that would be Werther. He has tracked large individual floes with his Autocad technique over several seasons.

Just one note of caution on the use of terminology. A 'bergy bit' is a remnant of an ice berg. Being fresh water ice, they are dramatically different than sea ice. Bergy bits mostly originate in Baffin Bay and are found in the NFLD sea and the N. Atlantic ocean.

Now that the great ice shelves on the North edge of the CAA have disappeared, there are almost no bergy bits deposited into the Central Arctic Basin.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 20, 2013, 12:10:46 AM »
If anyone deserves a little time off for good behavior it is you.
Ssh. Is he gone?  ::)

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: It's official; We now have an ice doughnut.
« on: August 19, 2013, 07:13:33 PM »
Hi Verge,

hmm, i think i'm gonna call that an 'ice bagel'...



You know, the boiled, doughy kind.   ;)

34
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: August 19, 2013, 12:47:48 PM »
Wipneus later proved to me that, contrary to their news release, they were still using windsat for numerical data.

I have explained how we are sure that Windsat is used here

Ah, okay that makes good sense. Thanks, fellows!

Still not sure how the WindSat hiccup affected the Home Brew SIE on the 16/17, but data is flowing now so all is well. 8)

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: August 19, 2013, 12:01:42 PM »
Hmm, more like "Fairbanks, we have a problem". GCOM-W1 data is still flowing over at JAXA. I'll attach a 10km SIC map for Aug 17, 2013 in a moment.

Please stand by...  ::)

that's not the issue.  They still use Wind-sat data for the numerical value.
Hi Friv,  ;)

I think Vergent has shown otherwise. At any rate, Wipneus' data is based on AMSR2 89 MHz data received through DMI, so I hope we will continue receiving those updates.

Of course, you could well be right about IJIS! This event will likely lay that question to rest ;)

I really should continue this over on Wipneus' Home Brew tread, so apologies if I cut over to there to continue...

Have a great week, Friv!  8)

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: August 19, 2013, 11:14:12 AM »
Hmm, more like "Fairbanks, we have a problem". GCOM-W1 data is still flowing over at JAXA. I will attach a 10km Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) map for Aug 17, 2013 in a moment.

Please stand by...  ::)

EDIT: SIC chart from GW1AM2_20130817_01D_PNMD_L3SGSICHA1100100 data attached. Map specs as follows:
  • created from L3 data (Level 3 - map)
  • 10 km per pixel native (data) resolution
  • North Polar map projection
  • Standard parallel 135 degrees (Greenland down)
  • 5 colour bins for SIC
Note: L1B, L1R, AND L2 data are flowing as expected (Brightness temperatures, Orbital swath data, and Map data, respectively, with the expected time lag required for data processing).

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 14, 2013, 08:27:56 AM »
It's cloud illusions I recall...  ;)


38
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 13, 2013, 09:59:04 AM »
Hi pearscot,

The image you posted is a live link, which is recycled about every 24 hrs. It (much like the sea ice) is ephemeral, and will not last.  ;)

If you wish to link to the images on the PSC website, you need to post the link to the permanent archive (go the the very bottom for the latest images).

Did you mean to refer to this image? (taken Mon Aug 12 18:53:02 UTC)


39
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 13, 2013, 09:45:00 AM »
Beaufort is the region of the day, showing a rather large extent increase with a level area. As the image shows, the increase happens in a low concentration area. Perhaps the northern winds have caused some melt pool freeze: melt pools affect the ASI algorithm just as all algorithms.
Hi Wipneus,

I think there is a possibility that the change in sea ice concentration in the Beaufort sea on Aug 12/2013 is an artifact of clouds obscuring the sensor.

Do you have the ability to overlay your SIC charts with MODIS bands 3-6-7 imagery? It'd be informative to see if the area of newly reported sea ice extent >15% aligns with the band of cloud from the tile r05c02 image.  8)

At any rate, we'll know in a few more hours, as that tile fills in for Aug 13/2013. Hopefully the cloud moves on.  ;)

40
Lodger

Sure, Go to:

Gracias, Verge!  :D

41
Nothing profound to say here, Just noticed a feature that would have been useful. TOPAZ has an age of first year ice feature. The ice in the Beaufort negative aged in March, so Topaz followed the cracking event accurately.

Verge! Good digg!  8)

Can you share a little on how to navigate to that feature? You know, for the kids?  ;)

42
Policy and solutions / Re: Will carbon capture and storage work?
« on: August 10, 2013, 11:27:44 PM »
Do you really believe that the only thing we need to do is stop burning fossil fuels?
If not what other big thing can we do?
Hi Geoff,

Quick note before I head out for my 100 km bike ride ;)

If we are able to stop burning fossil fuels, it will be BECAUSE we did all the other things!  8)

No big things are required. Recall that the O2 in Earth's atmosphere was put there by single celled prokaryotic organisms. They didn't even need a nucleus to change the World!

No, it's every one doing a little bit, and nobody consuming extreme amounts, that can save us from climate change.

So signing off and headed out to do my little bit!

43
Policy and solutions / Re: Will carbon capture and storage work?
« on: August 09, 2013, 11:25:19 PM »
But what do you propose for reducing CO2 in the atmosphere by 1000 gigatonnes?

Hi Geoff,

How fast do you want to remove all that C02? May I suggest about 33.33 gigatons / yr as a reasonable goal (30 years to remove 1,000 GT C02)? That's to have a 50/50 chance of staying below 450 ppm atmospheric C02.

This is our current CO2 input to the climate system from fossil fuel combustion, neglecting the effects of thawing permafrost, methane clathrates, land-use changes, etc.

Each tree sequesters about 48 pounds (say 20 kg) of C02 per year.

33.33 billion tonnes / 20 kg / tree / yr = 1.5 x 1012 additional trees.

Say 50,000 trees per square kilometer of forest. That's 30 million km2, or just 10x larger than all of Australia.  ::)

Have I mentioned that this is not feasible? If you stretch the time frame to 300 years, and convert an Australian sized land mass to forest (w/o incurring any net transient C02 emissions), then it might work. But Greenland and the WAIS will be melted by then. And lot's of East Antarctica too.

Another approach to this calculation appears here: (they also say it can't work)

http://www.coolantarctica.com/Antarctica%20fact%20file/science/carbon_offsetting_tree_planting.htm

So no, there is no substitute for cutting carbon emissions from fossil fuels if we want to preserve a livable climate. If fact we're doing the opposite right now by chopping down the rain forest in the Amazon and Indonesia. We euphemistically call this 'Land Use' changes. :P

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 09, 2013, 11:09:55 AM »
Further some fjords in the Ellesmere are showing sudden melting, this could well be (it is even likely) and artifact. Contamination from the nearby land on the microwave brightness makes the measurement uncertain.
Hi Wipneus,

As always, thanks for the outstanding work with the AMSR2 data. Gracias!

I think the ice-out in the Ellesmere fjords is real, based on the MODIS visible imagery for Aug 8, 2013. The green tint in the open water confirms the presence of an algal bloom, which is a sure sign of above freezing water temps.  8)

The following image is attached from this lance MODIS source.

45
Policy and solutions / Re: Will carbon capture and storage work?
« on: August 09, 2013, 05:50:24 AM »
I've been pessimistic about CCS but Ive just been pointed to this competition entry <snip>
At < $30 a tonne it seems a snip.

Hi Geoff,

Your instincts are correct. The US Government 'leases' coal for $1.12 per ton. And new Wind Power is already cheaper than new Coal Power. If you add $30 to the price of coal, it kills the economics. They ONLY way coal remains viable is if polluting the commons remains free to the polluter.  :P

Further, every CO2 geodisposal scheme has failed in testing due to leaks/escaping CO2. It must be chemically decomposed for the GHG forcings of C02 to be removed from the climate system. The only scalable method to do that is photosynthesis. But then why burn the coal, when we could just use the plants directly?  ???

So Verge is quite right. Industrial CCS does not work, period. WE ARE WASTING TIME.

46
Very weird to see a band of the cyclone appearing to drag the wildfire smoke with it (the blending and continuity of the wind suggests this, at least.) Hot wind and ash can't be a good omen for this event.
Hi D/O,

It just goes to show that, in the new Climate,
"What happens in Velsk DOESN'T stay in Velsk"  :P


47
Arctic sea ice / Re: Melt Ponds!
« on: August 07, 2013, 10:15:33 PM »
I'm guessing the bear knocked it a bit off balance, then it fell down properly a few hours later.

There you have it: we have passed the Arctic sea ice tipping point.  ;D

I think those buoys are designed to be self-righting. They easily weather gale force winds. It would take significant force to put one on it's side and make it stay that way. Ever see a Polar bear kill a 2-ton walrus?

I'm guessing the bear saw his selfie on facebook, and came back to destroy the evidence (sea bears are smarter than the average bear).  8)

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: Predictions
« on: August 03, 2013, 04:22:26 AM »
Its true globally.

Hi Verge,

The first science result from CryoSat2 radar data was this map of 'ocean dynamic topography', which is the height of the water relative to the geoid, released by ESA on Jan 25, 2011:

It shows that the sea surface height is about 80 cm above that of the East Greenland sea near Svalbard. The slight downhill gradient from the Bering Strait to Fram Strait is largely responsible for the Transpolar Drift current.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: August 01, 2013, 02:15:16 PM »
IJIS:
481,562 km2 above 2012.

IJIS reports a July 2013 loss of -2,835,625 km2
The daily loss rate was -91,472 km2

The July 2012 IJIS loss was -2,645,469 km2
The daily loss rate was -85,338 km2

Overall, IJIS reports 2013 lost -190,156 km2 more SIE than 2012.
The margin continues to close.

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 31, 2013, 06:57:49 PM »
Siberian wildfires, from today's arctic mosaic.  False-color shows smoke as rust-color. 
Hat-tip to Artful Dodger for predicting another fierce summer of Siberian fires.

Hi Steve,

Even in visible wavelengths, the smoke is clearly visible. If anything, I think the extent of this year's Siberian fires is greater than last year. Then there's James Bay... :P

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