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Messages - AbruptSLR

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1
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: Today at 12:37:03 PM »
[Secondly, regarding "You can get hyper-targeted", does Facebook allow you to present "dark posts" ads to anyone ? Even people that you did not flag as "friends" ?

If Facebook allows you to present "dark posts" ads to anyone you like, then there is a real problem there, and Facebook should come clean as to exactly how much money goes around in these "dark posts", who provided the money, and who exactly was targeted.

I am not an expert on such matters, but I have read that the Trump campaign hired several Trump friendly (that were interviewed by Trump himself to verify their true support of his campaign) ex-Facebook employees that showed the campaign how to identify and target groups of a few voters in key districts.

Congress will need to pass new regulations to track the potential abuse of such tools used by kleptocrats (including Russian oligarchs) who are actively worker to undermine US democracy so that they can scoop-up to pieces (say by public private partnerships that could purchase infrastructure using tax breaks that Trump & the GOP are trying to push though in the window of opportunity while Trump is president).

2
Taken together with the information from my last post, this linked open access reference emphasizes the importance of Arctic stratospheric ozone on climate change, and it is essential that CMIP6 model this feedback mechanism as accurately as practicable:

Diane J Ivy, Susan Solomon, Natalia Calvo and David W J Thompson (1 February 2017), "Observed connections of Arctic stratospheric ozone extremes to Northern Hemisphere surface climate", Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12, Number 2, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa57a4

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa57a4/meta

Abstract: "We present observational evidence for linkages between extreme Arctic stratospheric ozone anomalies in March and Northern Hemisphere tropospheric climate in spring (March–April). Springs characterized by low Arctic ozone anomalies in March are associated with a stronger, colder polar vortex and circulation anomalies consistent with the positive polarity of the Northern Annular Mode/North Atlantic Oscillation in March and April. The associated spring tropospheric circulation anomalies indicate a poleward shift of zonal winds at 500 hPa over the North Atlantic. Furthermore, correlations between March Arctic ozone and March–April surface temperatures reveal certain regions where a surprisingly large fraction of the interannual variability in spring surface temperatures is associated with interannual variability in ozone. We also find that years with low March Arctic ozone in the stratosphere display surface maximum daily temperatures in March–April that are colder than normal over southeastern Europe and southern Asia, but warmer than normal over northern Asia, adding to the warming from increasing well-mixed greenhouse gases in those locations. The results shown here do not establish causality, but nevertheless suggest that March stratospheric ozone is a useful indicator of spring averaged (March–April) tropospheric climate in certain Northern Hemispheric regions."

3
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: Today at 03:56:41 AM »
While the linked article is an op/ed piece; nevertheless, I have no doubt that Trump is working hard to transform America into a kleptocracy and that his ties to Russia and other international kleptocratic leaders is but one example of his efforts in this regard:

Title: "Do Trump's foreign business entanglements threaten our democracy?"

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-chayes-emoluments-clause-20171017-story.html

Extract: "Americans may also be physically endangered. Corruption is hardly a victimless crime. It enrages people. In less than a decade, indignation at kleptocratic rule has swelled the ranks of groups battling the governments of Philippines and Indonesia, and militant groups elsewhere, such as Nigeria’s Boko Haram and Islamic State. Where the U.S. is perceived as enabling abuses, Americans have come under attack. Corruption has sparked revolutions across the Arab world and in Ukraine, and mass protests from Brazil to South Korea.

Americans are in step with this global zeitgeist. Trump, with his cries of “drain the swamp,” rode voters’ indignation at politicians’ self-dealing to the White House. Now he is betraying his electorate. He is just like other American elites: tone-deaf to citizens’ disgust at rigged systems.

4
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: Today at 03:28:17 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +12.7:

5
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 20, 2017, 11:52:00 PM »
The linked article makes it clear that this Russian uranium deal is much ado about nothing:

Title: "Republicans are freaking out about a new report tying Hillary Clinton to a Russian uranium deal"

http://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-trump-uramium-one-deal-hillary-clinton-2017-10


ASLR
You may want to check the ownership of your source. See how many articles they've published that are anti CIA, pro Russian, anti Israel, pro China or anti Ukraine.
Their history, from atop the Berlin wall may surprise you.
Terry

If you prefer a different source, then you can review the linked Slate article:

Title: "Fox News Found a Russia Story It Likes: Obama and Clinton Were the Real Colluders!"

http://www.slate.com/blogs/watching_fox/2017/10/19/why_fox_news_is_obsessed_with_a_story_about_obama_clinton_uranium_and_russia.html

Extract: "Democratic strategist Zac Petkanas tried to offer some perspective. “What people are forgetting is that the Russians can’t actually take the uranium outside of the United States—they don’t have export permits. The uranium has to stay here in the United States,” he said, going on to note that the U.S. only produces 2 percent of the world’s total uranium."

6
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 20, 2017, 12:49:01 PM »
While some here are busy questioning Corporate Democrats, it is good to remember the role of the establishment GOP for facilitating the success of Trump's bad behavior during the 2016 election (including wildly successful voter suppression) and by defending Trump's bad behavior post election (including Nunes etc).

See:

Title: "Republicans were wildly successful at suppressing voters in 2016"

https://thinkprogress.org/2016-a-case-study-in-voter-suppression-258b5f90ddcd/

Extract: "Three GOP-controlled states demonstrate the effectiveness of disenfranchising the opposition.
...
Three such states serve as case studies for the effectiveness of these voting restrictions: Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida."

&

Title: "Devin Nunes, the congressman who nearly derailed the House’s investigation into Russia, is blaming Democrats"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/05/30/devin-nunes-the-congressman-who-nearly-derailed-the-houses-investigation-into-russia-is-blaming-democrats/?utm_term=.b9ccc4a9ee8b


7
The linked article indicates that there is likely a link between Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and the ENSO cycle.  This could be an important feedback mechanism that should be incorporated into Earth System Models:

Fei Xie, Jiankai Zhang, Wenjun Sang, Yang Li, Yulei Qi, Cheng Sun, Yang Li & Jianchuan Shu (17 October 2017), "Delayed effect of Arctic stratospheric ozone on tropical rainfall", Atmospheric Science Letters, DOI: 10.1002/asl.783

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.783/abstract?utm_content=buffer54291&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "The tropical precipitation has a wide effect on the tropical economics and social life. Many studies made efforts to improve the tropical precipitation forecast using tropical climate factors. This study, based on observations, found that Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) could exert a significant effect on the tropical precipitation, i.e. there is more (less) rainfall over the eastern Pacific and less (more) precipitation over the western Pacific when the ASO anomalies are lower (larger) than normal. It is because a decrease (increase) in ASO could affect El Niño (La Niña) events and lead to a weakened (enhanced) Walker circulation. Time-slice experiments confirmed that the ASO anomalies can force El Niño–Southern Oscillation-like anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature and subsequent tropical precipitation anomalies. In addition, the ASO variations could also change the occurrence probability of extreme precipitation in the tropics. During the anomalously low (high) ASO events, there are more occurrences of heavier precipitation over the eastern Pacific (western Pacific) and of lighter precipitation over the western Pacific (eastern Pacific). Furthermore, the ASO variations lead tropical rainfall by approximately 21 months, suggesting that the ASO can serve as a potentially effective predictor of tropical rainfall."

8
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 20, 2017, 03:54:08 AM »
The linked article indicates that there is likely a link between Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) and the ENSO cycle:

Fei Xie, Jiankai Zhang, Wenjun Sang, Yang Li, Yulei Qi, Cheng Sun, Yang Li & Jianchuan Shu (17 October 2017), "Delayed effect of Arctic stratospheric ozone on tropical rainfall", Atmospheric Science Letters, DOI: 10.1002/asl.783

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/asl.783/abstract?utm_content=buffer54291&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract: "The tropical precipitation has a wide effect on the tropical economics and social life. Many studies made efforts to improve the tropical precipitation forecast using tropical climate factors. This study, based on observations, found that Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) could exert a significant effect on the tropical precipitation, i.e. there is more (less) rainfall over the eastern Pacific and less (more) precipitation over the western Pacific when the ASO anomalies are lower (larger) than normal. It is because a decrease (increase) in ASO could affect El Niño (La Niña) events and lead to a weakened (enhanced) Walker circulation. Time-slice experiments confirmed that the ASO anomalies can force El Niño–Southern Oscillation-like anomalies of tropical sea surface temperature and subsequent tropical precipitation anomalies. In addition, the ASO variations could also change the occurrence probability of extreme precipitation in the tropics. During the anomalously low (high) ASO events, there are more occurrences of heavier precipitation over the eastern Pacific (western Pacific) and of lighter precipitation over the western Pacific (eastern Pacific). Furthermore, the ASO variations lead tropical rainfall by approximately 21 months, suggesting that the ASO can serve as a potentially effective predictor of tropical rainfall."

9
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 20, 2017, 03:27:42 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +11.6:

10
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 20, 2017, 03:00:11 AM »
The linked article makes it clear that this Russian uranium deal is much ado about nothing:

Title: "Republicans are freaking out about a new report tying Hillary Clinton to a Russian uranium deal"

http://www.businessinsider.com/republicans-trump-uramium-one-deal-hillary-clinton-2017-10


11
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 20, 2017, 01:23:08 AM »
If a Machiavellian type wants to do something wrong, but doesn't want to be held accountable, he/she (Don Jr/Kellyanne) just needs plausible deniability, such as by retweeting Russian troll farm tweets:

Title: "Trump Campaign Staffers Pushed Russian Propaganda Days Before the Election"

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-campaign-staffers-pushed-russian-propaganda-days-before-the-election

Extract: "Kellyanne Conway and Donald Trump Jr. pushed messages from an account operated from Russia’s ‘troll farm’—including allegations of voter fraud a week before Election Day."

12
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 20, 2017, 12:59:16 AM »
Here is an old post by JimD from the 'Empire - America and the future' thread about weaponizing propaganda:

Tell me what you think of this.

https://scout.ai/story/the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

Yes. Interesting article about AI propaganda and the influence of Cambridge Analytica in the 2016 elections and elsewhere.

I think that "astro-turfing" in general has already been playing a role on Internet for a while, specifically in the war-of-words about subjects like climate change and Keystone XL etc.
I don't see how otherwise (but with the help of AI) that so many blog commenters supported the fossil fuel industry and attacked scientists in such a vicious way.

In this article specifically, they do outline how AI systems/models can profile everyone individually, which could take (or has already taken) AI propaganda to a different level.

Yet I don't quite understand how AI can change users opinions at the individual level.
The article mentions this :

For Analytica, the feedback is instant and the response automated: Did this specific swing voter in Pennsylvania click on the ad attacking Clinton’s negligence over her email server? Yes? Serve her more content that emphasizes failures of personal responsibility. No? The automated script will try a different headline, perhaps one that plays on a different personality trait -- say the voter’s tendency to be agreeable toward authority figures. Perhaps: “Top Intelligence Officials Agree: Clinton’s Emails Jeopardized National Security.”

Much of this is done through Facebook dark posts, which are only visible to those being targeted.

In the weeks leading up to a final vote, a campaign could launch a $10-100 million dark post campaign targeting just a few million voters in swing districts and no one would know.
Do you know what these "Facebook dark posts" are and how they work ?

First, I note that AI is just a new tool to an old propaganda issue of reconditioning lazy minds to do what self-serving individuals (whether Nazis or Wall Street or Communists etc) want the lazy minds to do/think.

Second, as far as what "Facebook dark posts" are, see the following article entitled "Shedding Light on Facebook Dark Posts'":

https://sproutsocial.com/insights/facebook-dark-posts/

Extract: "Facebook dark posts are News Feed style ads that don’t publish to your Timeline or in your fans’ feeds organically. A dark post doesn’t have to just be a status update; currently, Facebook supports status updates, photos, videos, links or an Offer
...
You can get hyper-targeted. With the ability to create as many ads as you want without spamming your followers, you can create hyper-targeted ads for every segment.

2.You can do A/B testing. For example, you might change the image, headline, body copy or call-to-action button, or change several of these components for more variety. Use this to determine which variations have the highest click-through rates. The higher the CTR, the more money you’ll save on cost-per-click campaigns.

3.You guide your organic traffic better. Because you can see if certain images or headlines work better, A/B testing enables you to use paid social ads to guide your organic social strategy. Once you’ve determined which combinations perform the best, apply them to your organic posts for better reach and engagement.

4.You avoid ad-only streams. Ad-only Facebook streams are not only aggressive, but they tend to push away your audience. Facebook dark posts are niche and hyper-sensitive so you don’t blast the same CTAs to everyone through your feed."

If you are a normal business person Facebook dark posts are not necessarily sinister, but if you are a Russia oligarch helping your friend Putin, then maybe they can be sinister.

13
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 20, 2017, 12:35:21 AM »
ASLR
Your link points to a near future in which democracy is totally subverted, and evidence that this has already taken place.


Facebook and twitter seem central to this ploy, so staying far from these platforms seems wise. With Soros from the left and Bannon from the right, the color revolutions and Brexit, saying nothing of Trump's victory, may need to be seen in a new light.
Perhaps endless campaigns need to somehow be curtailed? but I've no idea how this could be done without putting the internet genii back in his bottle.


May the bot wars begin!
Terry

This is a complex issue as the genii cannot be put back in the bottle, but we can do things like:
1. OpenAI is making their AI available on an open access basis in a effort the level the playing field between powerful people like the Mercers and everyone else.
2.  We can actively work to shine light into shadowy areas where the self-serving few are taking unfair advantage (i.e. not putting our collective heads in the sand).
3. Congress will almost certainly pass some new regulations regarding social media reporting requirements.

14
Science / Re: Anthropogenic Existential Risk
« on: October 19, 2017, 06:14:33 PM »
Are we seeing the 'tip of the iceberg' w.r.t. a potential coming collapse of insect population and a chain reaction of impacts on critical biological systems (like bird population and flowering crops)?

Title: "Insects Are In Serious Trouble"

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/10/oh-no/543390/

Extract: "In western Germany, populations of flying insects have fallen by around 80 percent in the last three decades.

“The study makes visible what otherwise has been an invisible decline in insect abundance,” says Michelle Trautwein, from the California Academy of Sciences. “Our mistreatment of the planet has been recognizably bad for elephants and coral reefs, but it seems likely that it has also been just as bad for flies, moths, beetles.”

This is, to put it mildly, a huge problem.

Insects are the lynchpins of many ecosystems. Around 60 percent of birds rely on them for food. Around 80 percent of wild plants depend on them for pollination. If they disappear, ecosystems everywhere will collapse. But also, insects are the most diverse and numerous group of animals on the planet. If they’re in trouble, we’re all in trouble."

15
This is sad:

Title: "Republican Tactic Aims to Open Eastern Gulf, Arctic to Oil Rigs"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-18/republicans-may-use-budget-to-open-arctic-atlantic-to-oil-rigs

Extract: "Congressional Republicans have found a way to use the federal budget to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling -- and they don’t plan on stopping there.

GOP leaders in the House and Senate are exploring ways to also expand drilling in the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans through congressional budget rules that allow them to pass major policy changes on a simple majority vote."

16
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 19, 2017, 03:32:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has soared up to +11.1:

17
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 19, 2017, 02:52:28 AM »
In a reality where Putin has publically declared that whoever controls advanced AI (even if only in a 6 month window) will rule the world; you will soon find out how Machiavellian leaders (like Putin & Trump) will distort the 'truth' (such as by using AI spam-bots etc) so much that the majority of people won't know up from down (think both Orwell's & Huxley's dystopias).

Spot on !
I have worked my whole adult life in the Information Technology sector, working on electronics that connect the world, believing that Internet would allow anyone, anywhere to know the truth about anything.

But I didn't think how it also enables propaganda. Lots of propaganda.

I think it was Martin Gisser who stated :
"The duties of citizenship now extend to fact-checking the internet."
So, so true.

I really hope that enough people follow that duty, or else I feel, as Doctor Waldman once stated : "We have created a monster, and it will destroy us!"

Here is an old post by JimD from the 'Empire - America and the future' thread about weaponizing propaganda:

Tell me what you think of this.

https://scout.ai/story/the-rise-of-the-weaponized-ai-propaganda-machine

18
Consequences / Re: Hansen et al paper: 3+ meters SLR by 2100
« on: October 19, 2017, 02:33:18 AM »
To my knowledge, none in this deglaciation cycle even during MWP1A. But i could be wrong and  Hearty confines himself to the Eemian.

That would be none yet in this (Holocene/Anthropocene) deglaciation.

19
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 18, 2017, 03:40:58 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +9.4:

20
Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 17, 2017, 06:04:57 PM »
The GISS LOTI value of 80 was recently posted for September 2017.  This give a GMSTA above pre-industrial of 1.15C for a 12-month running GISS LOTI assuming the following conversion (To convert 1951-1980 temp departures to pre-industrial add: + 0.256 Celsius).  This is not good news considering that the ENSO condition is currently on the cold side of neutral.

21
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 17, 2017, 03:42:53 PM »

Here is a link to an article with many examples (of which I attach one example of a Fake Russian Ad on Facebook)

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/facebook-russia-fake-posts-trump-election-clinton-20171006.html

Obviously, First Amendment rights do not extend to non-US citizens.

I can't believe how stupid americans are when it comes to dealing with Russiagate. Do they really think, that if a Russian private company bought some ads on social media,that it was Kremlin's deeds? Do they REALLY think that Russia is the same old Soviet union?
That article you link, ASLR, is so full of totally unsubstantiated claims that it's just laughable. Where is the link from private people buying ads to 'Kremlin', to 'Moscow', to 'Putin', etc.?
What about some source criticism?!
Go look for the perpetrators of these social media activities at home, not abroad.
Any US private person or entity could have engaged that Russian company to buy the ads. Am I correct?

In a reality where Putin has publically declared that whoever controls advanced AI (even if only in a 6 month window) will rule the world; you will soon find out how Machiavellian leaders (like Putin & Trump) will distort the 'truth' (such as by using AI spam-bots etc) so much that the majority of people won't know up from down (think both Orwell's & Huxley's dystopias).

Edits: Populists (both right and left) like to think of themselves as 'the pure people' fighting the good fight against the 'corrupt elite' (whether the Deep State, Corporate Democrats or kleptocracies like the Trump Administration).  However, populist leaders typically learn very early that by manipulating the 'truth' they can control power (say by draining the 'swamp' of elitist climate change scientists), which generally leaves the majority of people out in the cold.

22
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 17, 2017, 03:35:24 PM »
My current understanding is that even the Kremlin is legally alllowed to post content and advertising in support or in opposition to candidates in federal elections without violation of federal law of the USA.

However, a campaign in a federal election is not allowed to receive direct aid from a foreign entity (ignoring foramoment that there are ways around that, too.)

So in federal law,  Russiagate hinges on whether the Trump campaign can be proved to have colluded directly with foreign entities for campaign aid.

That said, as to impeachment:

Impeachment grounds are notoriously ill defined, the House can choose to impeach for pretty much whatever suits their fancy, and then the Senate decides. The current House and Senate will not impeach and confirm, barring Trump choking McConnell to death on the House floor or the equivalent. Which given Trump's disposition, I cannot entirely rule out ...

So impeachment hopes are based upon democrat takeover of House and Senate in 2018. Let us see.

I personally think that Trump might quit on his own. This can't be any fun for him.

sidd

For completeness, don't forget about a Pence orchestrated implementation of the 25th Amendment.

23
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 17, 2017, 03:33:17 PM »
As much of the criticism of Trump gets twisted-up in misunderstanding of his particular brand of rightwing populism combined with authoritarianism and nationalism (where he campaigns on populism and then delivers authoritarianism and isolationistic nationalism), I provide the linked article:

Title: "We Are Thinking About Populism Wrong"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/populism-wrong-cost_us_58cfeb03e4b0be71dcf63e6c

Extract: "... populism is best defined as the following:

An ideology that considers society to be ultimately separated into two homogeneous and antagonistic groups ― “the pure people” and “the corrupt elite” ― and argues that politics should be an expression of the volonté générale or general will of the people.

...
In short, it is time to put the populism frame back in its correct place. Yes, populism is an important feature of contemporary politics, but not all anti-establishment politics is populism and populist parties are not just about populism. In fact, to accurately understand politicians like Trump and Wilders, and the challenge they pose to liberal democracy, authoritarianism and nativism are at least as important as populism, if not more. Moreover, while established politicians mainly adopt populism in their campaign rhetoric, authoritarianism and nativism are actually implemented in their policies, as we can see in recent responses to the refugee crisis and terrorism, from the EU-Turkey deal to the state of emergency in France."

24
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: October 17, 2017, 03:16:28 PM »
ASLR....

Does RCP 8.5 mean a 5C temperature rise over pre-industrial by 2100?

The Recommended Concentration Pathways, RCPs, are assumed emission scenarios that result in the indicated amount of peak radiative forcing in the 2000 to 2100 timeframe (see the attached plot).  So RCP 8.5 means an assumed pathway of combined anthropogenic and natural feedbacks (assuming ECS around 3C), leading to 8.5 W/sq meter of radiative forcing by 2100.

25
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 17, 2017, 04:53:40 AM »
The second amendment seems to be the only one that seems to have enuf support to withstand erosion. I guess it tells a lot about the USA. Even a couple roomfuls of dead kids dont matter.

sidd

I believe that both you and Terry are acting in good will; but the second amendment will not protect citizen rights from any modern military.  The NRA is only using the second amendment as a symbol that rightwing nationalists can wrap themselves in to say how much that distrust the government, is almost exactly the same way that NFL players who take a knee are expressing the same distrust from outside of Trump's base.  What we need is action that will pull the world together rather than pushing it apart by 'othering'.

Hopefully, the slowly grinding wheels of justice that Mueller represents will both give Trump the opportunity to defend himself while holding him accountable for what he may have done.

26
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 17, 2017, 03:39:08 AM »

Thanks again ASLR
Are we about to enter into an era where I, as a Canadian, won't be able to argue American politics online?
I don't use facebook or Twitter, but I have been vocal about many divisive subjects, whether an election was eminent or not.
If I wanted to run an ad against the tariffs recently placed on Canadian airplanes, should I consider placing it in my wife's, an American Citizen's name?

I can't imagine that the vaunted American Democratic System is so fragile that it can be brought down so easily for so little. Hope the Canadian System is more robust :)


Terry

I am glad that you, and sidd, and others are so confident in everyone's (US citizens and otherwise) rights when facing growing nationalist abuse of power.  My father-in-law was put into an internment camp by FDR's order; just imagine what Trump might do working in collusion with Putin.

27
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 17, 2017, 03:28:21 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.5:

28
The forum / Re: Arctic Sea Ice Forum Humor
« on: October 17, 2017, 12:57:34 AM »
It is not nice to fool around with Mother Nature:

29
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 17, 2017, 12:41:45 AM »
Is it illegal for foreign entities to " ... sow social divisions in America by stoking disagreement and division around a plethora of controversial topics ..." if those topics are not election related ? First Amendment law is quite strong, although hate speech laws might apply. Any lawyers want to chime in ?

Election related campaigns by foreigners are illegal as I understand it. Unfortunately I can find no data on exactly what the election related ads were. Anyone have links ?

sidd
Here is a link to an article with many examples (of which I attach one example of a Fake Russian Ad on Facebook)

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/facebook-russia-fake-posts-trump-election-clinton-20171006.html

Obviously, First Amendment rights do not extend to non-US citizens.

30
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 17, 2017, 12:08:06 AM »
....this is the type of thing that is SO obvious...it is going to hurt Donnie's poll numbers further.

Donnie's poll numbers will only drop when his base gets unnerved (see the attached Fivethirtyeight poll numbers for Donnie issued today):

Edit, the image came from the linked website:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

31
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 16, 2017, 11:42:45 PM »
Do the estimated viewings include those who like myself that run Adblocker, or a similar program?
Are they saying that 10M Americans saw the ads, or is this 10M world wide?
If elections can swayed with so little cash outlay, why are the Democrats still hounding me for financial support?


Terry

Terry,

If you read the linked article you may find some of the answers to your questions:

Title: "Silicon Valley’s Russian ads problem, explained"

https://www.recode.net/2017/10/6/16419388/facebook-google-twitter-russia-ads-2016-election-president-donald-trump

ASLR

32
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 16, 2017, 11:32:16 PM »
Can some more context be given for these numbers? How many other ads did those 10 million people see in that period? How many ads are seen by how many people every day? How much did those ads costs, and how does that amount relate to the total amount of money spent on the elections by both Clinton and Trump? How did those ads look exactly, and were there any comparable ads from other sources? And like Hefaistos said: what does 'by Russia' mean? Is it also 'by Russia' if some kid living in or near Russia places ads as clickbait? Or if it were just Russian private citizens or companies doing their bit, for whatever reasons they may have?

Why are these allegations often so vague?

Maybe the linked The Guardian article can answer some of your questions until Mueller (who is required to keep his information confidential) presents his case in a court of law:

Title: "How Russia used social media to divide Americans"

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/oct/14/russia-us-politics-social-media-facebook

Extract: "Russian trolls and bots focused on controversial topics in an effort to stoke political division on an enormous scale – and it hasn’t stopped, experts say

Such is the focus on Russian meddling that congressional investigators are increasingly aggressive in asking the big tech companies to account for how their platforms became the staging grounds for an attack on American democracy. Early next month that scrutiny will intensify, with executives from Facebook, Google and Twitter formally invited to appear before the House intelligence committee on Capitol Hill in Washington.

What has now been made clear is that Russian trolls and automated bots not only promoted explicitly pro-Donald Trump messaging, but also used social media to sow social divisions in America by stoking disagreement and division around a plethora of controversial topics such as immigration and Islamophobia."

33
Permafrost / Re: Arctic Methane Release
« on: October 16, 2017, 09:19:49 PM »
ASLR.....

Thank you for this wonderful post.

For what it is worth, when S&S (Dr Natalia Shakhova and Dr Igor Semiletov) published their 2011 findings I performed what I call a 95% confidence level scenario based engineering hazard assessment, SBEHA, of maximum methane emissions by 2100 and I previously generated the attached list, as a correction to the methane emissions assumed in RCP 8.5 (which we are essentially following at the moment).  You can use this information together with the radiative forcings calculated by Isaksen et al 2011.

Edit: For reference the second attached image gives the assumed atmospheric methane concentrations thru 2300 per the different RCP scenarios.

Edit 2, the third image from Hansen et al 2017 shows the observed atmospheric concentrations to those assumed by the RCP scenarios, indicating that we are currently closest to the RCP 8.5 scenario w.r.t. methane concentrations.

Edit 3, the fourth image shows the Mauna Loa atmospheric methane concentration from 2006 thru early Oct 2017, and it makes it clear that Hansen et al 2017 observed data errs on the side of least drama as it appears that by mid-2017 the mean Mauna Loa ppb will be around 1870 (or slightly above the RCP 8.5 scenario for mid-2017).

34
Science / Re: Adapting to the Anthropocene
« on: October 16, 2017, 07:47:24 PM »
Previously in this thread I have noted that the technological singularity has been projected (by Ray Kurzweil) to occur in the 2045 to 2050 timeframe and also that I have projected that WAIS will have initiated its "main phase" collapse in the 2045 to 2050 timeframe.  In this post I note that under the Chinese Dream formulated by Xi Jinping, China currently plans to have an economy three times larger than that of the USA by the 100th anniversary of the People' Republic in 2049.

Thus I provide the following linked information for those who want to prepare for what I project to be a subsequent global socio-economic collapse in the 2050 to 2060 timeframe due to a combination of:

1. Culture shock associated with the technological singularity;
2. Climate shock resulting from both SLR and the ice-climate feedback associated with the main phase collapse of the WAIS; and
3. The shock of war/famine/disease resulting from the shock doctrine of global nationalist movements such as 'Make China Great Again' and 'Make America Great Again' (see attached image).

Title: "What Xi Jinping Wants"

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/05/what-china-wants/528561/

Extract: "China’s leader is determined to turn his country into “the biggest player in the history of the world.” Can he do it while avoiding a dangerous collision with America?

Xi is so convinced he will succeed in this quest that he has blatantly flouted a cardinal rule for political survival: Never state a target objective and a specific date in the same sentence. Within a month of becoming China’s leader in 2012, Xi specified deadlines for meeting each of his “Two Centennial Goals.” First, China will build a “moderately prosperous society” by doubling its 2010 per capita GDP to $10,000 by 2021, when it celebrates the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. Second, it will become a “fully developed, rich, and powerful” nation by the 100th anniversary of the People's Republic in 2049. If China reaches the first goal— which it is on course to do—the IMF estimates that its economy will be 40 percent larger than that of the U.S. (measured in terms of purchasing power parity). If China meets the second target by 2049, its economy will be triple America's."

&

Title: "Why China aims to be number one superpower by 2049

http://www.oxfordtoday.ox.ac.uk/features/why-china-aims-be-number-one-superpower-2049

Extract: "The seeds of world ambition are historical but it would be reckless to dismiss them, says Oxford analyst Tom Miller."

&

See also the linked Wikipedia articles entitled "Two Centenaries" & " Chinese Dream":

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Centenaries
&
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Dream

Edit, see also the second attached image, and the following linked Wikipedia article on China's One Belt One Road Initiative:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Belt_One_Road_Initiative

35
Science / Re: Carbon Cycle
« on: October 16, 2017, 05:48:29 PM »
RealClimate has an interesting post focused on the use of OCO-2 to monitor the influence of El Ninos on the Carbon Cycle:

Title: "O Say Can You CO2…"

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/10/o-say-can-you-co2/

Extract: "As part of a series of OCO-2 papers being published this week, a new Science paper by Junjie Liu and colleagues used NASA’s comprehensive Carbon Monitoring System to analyze millions of measurements from OCO-2 and other satellites to map the impact of the 2015-16 El Niño on sources and sinks of CO2, providing insight into the mechanisms controlling carbon-climate feedback.

Uncertainty in Carbon-Climate Feedbacks is important

We’ve known for decades (Rayner et al, 1999) that El Niño influences the productivity of tropical forests and therefore CO2, but we had very few direct observations of the effects because they are so remote. Field experiments on the ground and aircraft profiling of CO2 over tropical forests have documented the impact of heat and drought on forest productivity, but they are few and far between. Vigorous convective mixing in the deep tropics also dilutes changes in near-surface CO2 much more than at higher latitudes, so low-altitude sampling contains relatively less information about carbon sources and sinks."

36
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 16, 2017, 05:31:23 PM »
The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM showing the weekly Nino index data thru the week ending Oct 15 2017.  They show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, and collectively they indicate that the ENSO conditions are currently on the cold side of neutral:

37
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 16, 2017, 05:28:25 PM »
Per the following NOAA weekly Nino data, the first two NOAA images of the Eq Pac showing the Upper Ocean Heat Anom and the SSTA Evolution, respectively; and the last two BoM images showing the weekly Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, for the week ending Oct 15 2017; the ENSO has fluctuated to the cold bound of remaining neutral:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
 06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1
 13SEP2017     19.7-0.7     24.0-0.9     26.1-0.6     28.7 0.0
 20SEP2017     19.3-1.1     23.9-1.0     26.3-0.4     28.7 0.0
 27SEP2017     19.5-1.0     24.4-0.5     26.5-0.2     28.4-0.2
 04OCT2017     19.3-1.4     24.7-0.2     26.7 0.0     28.7 0.1
 11OCT2017     19.5-1.3     24.4-0.5     26.2-0.5     28.5-0.1

38
Consequences / Re: Conservative Scientists & its Consequences
« on: October 16, 2017, 05:07:00 PM »
Stratospheric ozone is under assault from anthropogenic emissions (primarily from East Asia) of several chlorine-containing very short-lived substances (Cl-VSLSs).  This was certainly not envisioned by AR5 & almost certainly is not considered in AR6:

Oram, D. E., Ashfold, M. J., Laube, J. C., Gooch, L. J., Humphrey, S., Sturges, W. T., Leedham-Elvidge, E., Forster, G. L., Harris, N. R. P., Mead, M. I., Samah, A. A., Phang, S. M., Ou-Yang, C.-F., Lin, N.-H., Wang, J.-L., Baker, A. K., Brenninkmeijer, C. A. M., and Sherry, D.: A growing threat to the ozone layer from short-lived anthropogenic chlorocarbons, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 11929-11941, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-11929-2017, 2017.

https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/11929/2017/?utm_content=bufferb397a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract. Large and effective reductions in emissions of long-lived ozone-depleting substance (ODS) are being achieved through the Montreal Protocol, the effectiveness of which can be seen in the declining atmospheric abundances of many ODSs. An important remaining uncertainty concerns the role of very short-lived substances (VSLSs) which, owing to their relatively short atmospheric lifetimes (less than 6 months), are not regulated under the Montreal Protocol. Recent studies have found an unexplained increase in the global tropospheric abundance of one VSLS, dichloromethane (CH2Cl2), which has increased by around 60 % over the past decade. Here we report dramatic enhancements of several chlorine-containing VSLSs (Cl-VSLSs), including CH2Cl2 and CH2ClCH2Cl (1,2-dichloroethane), observed in surface and upper-tropospheric air in East and South East Asia. Surface observations were, on occasion, an order of magnitude higher than previously reported in the marine boundary layer, whilst upper-tropospheric data were up to 3 times higher than expected. In addition, we provide further evidence of an atmospheric transport mechanism whereby substantial amounts of industrial pollution from East Asia, including these chlorinated VSLSs, can rapidly, and regularly, be transported to tropical regions of the western Pacific and subsequently uplifted to the tropical upper troposphere. This latter region is a major provider of air entering the stratosphere, and so this mechanism, in conjunction with increasing emissions of Cl-VSLSs from East Asia, could potentially slow the expected recovery of stratospheric ozone.

39
Policy and solutions / Re: Geoengineering, another rush for money?
« on: October 16, 2017, 04:43:41 PM »
Of course, Trump will use geoengineering as an excuse not to reduce CO₂ emissions:

Title: "Geoengineering is not a quick fix for climate change, experts warn Trump"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/14/geoengineering-is-not-a-quick-fix-for-climate-change-experts-warn-trump

Extract: "Leading researchers and campaigners express concern that geoengineering research could be used as an excuse not to reduce CO2 emissions"

40
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 16, 2017, 03:29:12 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +9.0:

41
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: October 16, 2017, 01:32:36 AM »
The linked reference discusses a climate model of intermediate sophistication that represents an initial effort to model Earth Systems subject to changing from on climate state to another due to periodic climate attractors:

Valerio Lucarini and Tamás Bódai (2017), "Edge states in the climate system: exploring global instabilities and critical transitions", Nonlinearity 30 R32, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6544/aa6b11

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6544/aa6b11/meta

Abstract: "Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and—for all practical purposes—irreversible changes in the properties of the system. As is well known, the Earth climate is multistable: present astronomical and astrophysical conditions support two stable regimes, the warm climate we live in, and a snowball climate characterized by global glaciation. We first provide an overview of methods and ideas relevant for studying the climate response to forcings and focus on the properties of critical transitions in the context of both stochastic and deterministic dynamics, and assess strengths and weaknesses of simplified approaches to the problem. Following an idea developed by Eckhardt and collaborators for the investigation of multistable turbulent fluid dynamical systems, we study the global instability giving rise to the snowball/warm multistability in the climate system by identifying the climatic edge state, a saddle embedded in the boundary between the two basins of attraction of the stable climates. The edge state attracts initial conditions belonging to such a boundary and, while being defined by the deterministic dynamics, is the gate facilitating noise-induced transitions between competing attractors. We use a simplified yet Earth-like intermediate complexity climate model constructed by coupling a primitive equations model of the atmosphere with a simple diffusive ocean. We refer to the climatic edge states as Melancholia states and provide an extensive analysis of their features. We study their dynamics, their symmetry properties, and we follow a complex set of bifurcations. We find situations where the Melancholia state has chaotic dynamics. In these cases, we have that the basin boundary between the two basins of attraction is a strange geometric set with a nearly zero codimension, and relate this feature to the time scale separation between instabilities occurring on weather and climatic time scales. We also discover a new stable climatic state that is similar to a Melancholia state and is characterized by non-trivial symmetry properties."

42
CMIP5 models do not adequately address the consequences of periodic climate attractors.  The linked reference indicated that periodic climate attractors exhibit smooth transitions from one climate state to another, and consequently that looking for usual indicators of tipping points in either the paleo record or in the CMIP5 output will not be adequate for calibrating CMIP6 models to adequately account for periodic climate attractors:

Everton S. Medeiros, Iberê L. Caldas, Murilo S. Baptista & Ulrike Feudel (2017), "Trapping Phenomenon Attenuates the Consequences of Tipping Points for Limit Cycles", Scientific Reports 7, Article number: 42351, doi:10.1038/srep42351

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep42351?WT.feed_name=subjects_materials-science

Abstract: "Nonlinear dynamical systems may be exposed to tipping points, critical thresholds at which small changes in the external inputs or in the system’s parameters abruptly shift the system to an alternative state with a contrasting dynamical behavior. While tipping in a fold bifurcation of an equilibrium is well understood, much less is known about tipping of oscillations (limit cycles) though this dynamics are the typical response of many natural systems to a periodic external forcing, like e.g. seasonal forcing in ecology and climate sciences. We provide a detailed analysis of tipping phenomena in periodically forced systems and show that, when limit cycles are considered, a transient structure, so-called channel, plays a fundamental role in the transition. Specifically, we demonstrate that trajectories crossing such channel conserve, for a characteristic time, the twisting behavior of the stable limit cycle destroyed in the fold bifurcation of cycles. As a consequence, this channel acts like a “ghost” of the limit cycle destroyed in the critical transition and instead of the expected abrupt transition we find a smooth one. This smoothness is also the reason that it is difficult to precisely determine the transition point employing the usual indicators of tipping points, like critical slowing down and flickering."

Edit: I note that this type of calibration is best suited for improving evaluations of the risk of transitioning to an equable climate due to an ENSO climate attractor progressively ratcheting-up various other positive feedback mechanisms (such as feedbacks progressively ramping up Arctic Amplification and also for contributing to a WAIS collapse) in a somewhat 'smooth' stair-step fashion (possibly by the end of this century).  I attached misc. images for reference.

43
The rest / Re: The Trump Presidency (was "Presidential Poll")
« on: October 16, 2017, 12:06:26 AM »
Per the linked article Bannon has stated that he and his conservative populists, have control over conservative billionaire campaign donations:

Title: "Steve Bannon Declares ‘Season of War’ Against GOP Establishment"

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/steve-bannon-declares-season-war-against-gop-establishment-n810731

Per linked article at least the Mercers (both father & daughter) are financing Bannon's 'conservative populist' run to gain Congressional seats during the 2018 mid-term elections so that he can unseat Mitch McConnell:

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/steve-bannons-war-plans-2018-come-focus

Extract: "As Bloomberg Politics reported the other day, Donald Trump’s former chief strategist is ready to lead the charge.

Steve Bannon plans to back primary challengers to almost every Republican senator who runs for re-election next year in an effort to depose Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and streamline Senate voting procedures, three people familiar with his plans said. […]

Bannon plans to support as many as 15 Republican Senate candidates in 2018, including several challengers to incumbents, the people said. He’ll support only candidates who agree to two conditions: They will vote against McConnell as majority leader, and they will vote to end senators’ ability to block legislation by filibustering.


“We’re going to go after them. There’s a coalition coming together that’s going to challenge every Republican incumbent except for Ted Cruz,” Bannon told Fox News last night night. “We are declaring war on the Republican establishment that does not back the agenda that Donald Trump ran on. We’re going after these guys tooth and nail.”

That, of course, will require considerable resources, and Bloomberg Politics’ report added that Bannon is in the process of holding “a series of meetings with donors, potential candidates and grassroots strategists.” Not surprisingly, hedge-fund billionaire Robert Mercer, a Bannon benefactor, is reportedly involved in the endeavor."

44
Consequences / Re: 2017 ENSO
« on: October 15, 2017, 08:54:03 PM »
Per the linked article the OCO-2 satellite has confirmed that the ocean acts as a significant source of temporarily increased CO2 emissions into the atmosphere during El Nino events:

Title: "NASA Satellite Reveals Source of El Niño–Fueled Carbon Dioxide Spike"

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nasa-satellite-reveals-source-of-el-nino-fueled-carbon-dioxide-spike/

Extract: "The ocean signal "was really a big surprise to us," said Abhishek Chatterjee, a scientist with University Space Research Association working at NASA's Goddard Spaceflight Center. The response had been inferred before, "but it was never observed to the degree that we could" with OCO-2, he said."

See also:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/358/6360/186

Extract: "In this issue, a collection of Research Articles presents the initial results from OCO-2, covering the detection of CO2 emissions from specific point sources; measurements of CO2 variations associated with El Niño, on land and at sea; and solar-induced fluorescence measurements of photosynthesis for determining gross primary production by plants. With its impressive collection of observational capabilities, OCO-2 will enable measurements of atmospheric CO2 to be made with sufficient precision, resolution, and coverage to faithfully characterize its sources and sinks globally over the seasonal cycle, a long-standing goal in atmospheric and climate science."

45
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 15, 2017, 08:03:40 PM »
Per the linked article entitled: "At Intersection of Russia Probe and Social Media: Trump's Digital Chief", Mueller is only beginning to investigate what data crimes might have been committed by the Trump Campaign in 2016:

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/at-intersection-of-russia-probe-and-social-media-trumps-digital-chief/ar-AAtpoAl?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "The extent of the Trump digital operation’s activity was largely unreported because there are no federal disclosure requirements for online ads. Unlike when they air television and radio ads, campaigns running online ads aren’t required to disclose how much they paid for the ads, whom they paid and where the ads would run.

Now, lawmakers and Mr. Mueller want to know what role activity on Facebook and Twitter played in the election interference, and whether any Russian social-media activity was connected to the Trump campaign. Facebook has estimated that 10 million people saw ads on its website that were paid for by Russia. Mr. Mueller received copies of Russia-backed Facebook ads last month.

“This was a data crime that occurred, carried out at least by Russia, possibly with cooperation with Trump campaign officials, so any Trump campaign official that worked on data, I think, would be relevant to talk to,” said Rep. Eric Swalwell (D., Calif.), a member of the House Intelligence Committee."

46
The rest / Re: Russiagate
« on: October 15, 2017, 08:00:49 PM »
ASLR


Isn't lowering tensions with Russia one of Trump's campaign pledges? Why would attempting to fulfill a campaign promise be seen in a negative light?
This is after all the reason a number of voters gave him the nod.


Terry

Terry,

Your question implies that you believe that Trump should feel free to break any law that he wants (such as the new Congressional bill requiring new sanctions on Russia) so long as it pleases his base.  I find this line of questioning disturbing to say the least.

ASLR

47
Science / Re: Modelling the Anthropocene
« on: October 15, 2017, 06:00:03 PM »
While the linked reference's study of an Earth-like terra-planet may be of somewhat academic interest for newly discovered planets, the authors do note its possible relevance to an imaginary drop from present day conditions to the Snowball Earth state:

Kalidindi, S., Reick, C. H., Raddatz, T., and Claussen, M.: Two drastically different climate states on an Earth-like terra-planet, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-84, in review, 2017.

https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2017-84/

Abstract. We study an Earth-like terra-planet with an overland recycling mechanism bringing fresh water back from higher latitudes to the lower latitudes. By performing model simulations for such a planet we find two drastically different climate states for the same set of boundary conditions and parameter values: A Cold and Wet (CW) state (present-day Earth-like climate) with dominant low-latitude precipitation and, a Hot and Dry (HD) state with only high-latitude precipitation. We notice that for perpetual equinox conditions, both climate states are stable below a certain threshold value of background soil albedo while above the threshold only the CW state is stable. Starting from the HD state and increasing background soil albedo above the threshold causes an abrupt shift from the HD state to the CW state resulting in a sudden cooling of about 35 °C globally which is of the order of the temperature difference between the present-day and the Snowball Earth state. In contrast to the Snowball Earth instability, we find that the sudden cooling in our study is driven by the cloud albedo feedback rather than the snow-albedo feedback. Also, when albedo in the CW state is reduced back to zero the terra-planet does not display a closed hysteresis. This is due to the high cloud cover in the CW state hiding the surface from solar irradiation. As a result, this reduction of background surface albedo has only a minor effect on the top of the atmosphere radiation balance, thereby making it impossible to heat the planet sufficiently strongly to switch back to the HD state. Additional simulations point to a similar abrupt transition from HD state to the CW state for non-zero obliquity which is the only stable state in this configuration. Our study also has implications for the habitability of Earth-like terra-planets. At the inner edge of the habitable zone, the higher cloud cover in the CW state cools the planet and may prevent the onset of a runaway greenhouse state. At the outer edge, the resupply of water at lower latitudes stabilizes the greenhouse effect and keeps the planet in the HD state and may prevent water from getting trapped at higher latitudes in frozen form. Overall, the existence of bi-stability in the presence of an overland recycling mechanism hints at the possibility of a wider habitable zone for Earth-like terra-planets at lower obliquities.

48
The linked reference finds limited ice-stream bed erosion beneath the PIG in recent decades:

Davies, D., Bingham, R. G., King, E. C., Smith, A. M., Brisbourne, A. M., Spagnolo, M., Graham, A. G. C., Hogg, A. E., and Vaughan, D. G.: How dynamic are ice-stream beds?, The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2017-214, in review, 2017.

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2017-214/

Abstract. Projections of sea-level rise contributions from West Antarctica's dynamically thinning ice streams contain high uncertainty because some of the key processes involved are extremely challenging to observe. An especially poorly observed parameter is sub-decadal stability of ice-stream beds. Only two previous studies have made repeated geophysical measurements of ice-stream beds at the same locations in different years, but both studies were limited in spatial extent. Here, we present the results from repeat radar measurements of the bed of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica, conducted 3–6 years apart, along a cumulative ~ 60 km of profiles. Analysis of the correlation of bed picks between repeat surveys show that 90 % of the ice-stream bed displays no significant change despite the glacier increasing in speed by up to 40 % over the last decade. We attribute the negligible detection of morphological change at the bed of Pine Island Glacier to the ubiquitous presence of a deforming till layer, wherein sediment transport is in steady state, such that sediment is transported along the basal interface without inducing morphological change to the radar-sounded bed. Significant change was only detected in one 500 m section of the bed where a change in bed morphology occurs with a difference in vertical amplitude of 3–5 m. Given the precision of our measurements, the maximum possible erosion rate that could go undetected along our profiles is 500 mm a-1, far exceeding erosion rates reported for glacial settings from proglacial sediment yields, but substantially below subglacial erosion rates of 1000 mm a-1 previously reported from repeat geophysical surveys in West Antarctica.

49
Consequences / Re: Wildfires
« on: October 15, 2017, 05:23:29 PM »
The linked article uses wildfires in the Amazon as a canary in a coal mine to indicate that the rainforests have turned from carbon sinks to carbon sources:

Title: "Record Amazon fires stun scientists; sign of sick, degraded forests"

https://www.skepticalscience.com/2017-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_41.html

Extract: "- With the fire season still on-going, Brazil has seen 208,278 fires this year, putting 2017 on track to beat 2004’s record 270,295 fires. While drought (likely exacerbated by climate change) worsens the fires, experts say that nearly every blaze this year is human-caused.

- The highest concentration of fires in the Amazon biome in September was in the São Félix do Xingu and Altamira regions. Fires in Pará state in September numbered 24,949, an astonishing six-fold increase compared with 3,944 recorded in the same month last year.

- The Amazon areas seeing the most wildfires have also seen rapid change and development in recent years, with high levels of deforestation, and especially forest degradation, as loggers, cattle ranchers, agribusiness and dam builders move in.

- Scientists warn of a dangerous synergy: forest degradation has turned the Amazon from carbon sink to carbon source; while globally, humanity’s carbon emissions are worsening drought and fires. Brazil’s rapid Amazon development deepens the problem. Researchers warn that mega-fires could be coming, unless trends are reversed.

See also the associated article at:

https://news.mongabay.com/2017/10/record-amazon-fires-stun-scientists-sign-of-sick-degraded-forests/

Extract: "While in the past Amazonian forests served humankind inadvertently by absorbing more carbon than emitted, delaying the worst impacts of global warming, Feldpausch says that has now changed. The Amazon has now become part of the problem: “The combined effect of continued droughts, fire, and forest degradation is reducing carbon stocks, resulting in Amazon forests being an estimated net source of carbon during the past decade.”

Indeed, a new, just published study by researchers at the Woods Hole Research Center and Boston University, has found that human-caused deforestation, forest degradation and disturbance of tropical forests in Africa, the Americas and Asia have resulted in those forests now emitting more carbon into the atmosphere than they sequester on an annual basis."

50
The linked reference uses neural network interpolation methodology to improve the resolution of measurements of the partial pressure of CO₂ along the continental margins of the ocean from 1998 to 2015.  This improved calibration is valuable for better understanding seasonal and spatial changes in the air-sea CO₂ balance; which among other things is important for achieving a better understanding of the influence of the ENSO cycles on atmospheric CO₂ concentrations.  This can be used to better calibrate ESM projections on decadal timescales:

Laruelle, G. G., Landschützer, P., Gruber, N., Tison, J.-L., Delille, B., and Regnier, P.: Global high-resolution monthly pCO2 climatology for the coastal ocean derived from neural network interpolation, Biogeosciences, 14, 4545-4561, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4545-2017, 2017.

https://www.biogeosciences.net/14/4545/2017/?utm_content=buffer6d703&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Abstract. In spite of the recent strong increase in the number of measurements of the partial pressure of CO2 in the surface ocean (pCO2), the air–sea CO2 balance of the continental shelf seas remains poorly quantified. This is a consequence of these regions remaining strongly under-sampled in both time and space and of surface pCO2 exhibiting much higher temporal and spatial variability in these regions compared to the open ocean. Here, we use a modified version of a two-step artificial neural network method (SOM-FFN; Landschützer et al., 2013) to interpolate the pCO2 data along the continental margins with a spatial resolution of 0.25° and with monthly resolution from 1998 to 2015. The most important modifications compared to the original SOM-FFN method are (i) the much higher spatial resolution and (ii) the inclusion of sea ice and wind speed as predictors of pCO2. The SOM-FFN is first trained with pCO2 measurements extracted from the SOCATv4 database. Then, the validity of our interpolation, in both space and time, is assessed by comparing the generated pCO2 field with independent data extracted from the LDVEO2015 database. The new coastal pCO2 product confirms a previously suggested general meridional trend of the annual mean pCO2 in all the continental shelves with high values in the tropics and dropping to values beneath those of the atmosphere at higher latitudes. The monthly resolution of our data product permits us to reveal significant differences in the seasonality of pCO2 across the ocean basins. The shelves of the western and northern Pacific, as well as the shelves in the temperate northern Atlantic, display particularly pronounced seasonal variations in pCO2,  while the shelves in the southeastern Atlantic and in the southern Pacific reveal a much smaller seasonality. The calculation of temperature normalized pCO2 for several latitudes in different oceanic basins confirms that the seasonality in shelf pCO2 cannot solely be explained by temperature-induced changes in solubility but are also the result of seasonal changes in circulation, mixing and biological productivity. Our results also reveal that the amplitudes of both thermal and nonthermal seasonal variations in pCO2 are significantly larger at high latitudes. Finally, because this product's spatial extent includes parts of the open ocean as well, it can be readily merged with existing global open-ocean products to produce a true global perspective of the spatial and temporal variability of surface ocean pCO2.

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