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Messages - helorime

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 25, 2017, 07:05:11 PM »
Likely a drop of water on the lens.

2
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 23, 2017, 08:34:19 PM »
We are in that spot where all the low years converge.  The divergence has been in the 2nd week in August. Sometimes I think that a lot of us on this forum overthink and over-predict.  The ice is not in good shape.  Weather matters a lot.  Calculating based on % changes, and average drops, may not be all that informative.  This is where we are.  We can see what the ice is like.  Will August be favorable for the ice?  Will August bring storms and shredding and transport more warm water?  We had a low maximum this year. 2012 had a relatively high one, so the decrease in area and extent are inherently different.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 17, 2017, 07:30:52 PM »
For those having problems with Chartic.  I sent a query and received this reply.  It solved the problem for me  :)

"Thank you for contacting NSIDC. Recent updates to web browsers have made the HTTPS connection the new default. Charctic is not designed to function with this secure protocol. Manually changing the URL to begin with HTTP should solve the issue, if you are able to do so. If your browsers does not allow for this manual configuration to the URL string, please utilize another browser of your choice. Our developers are currently working on a solution and hope to have it in production soon. Thank you for your patience and understanding."

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2017 melting season
« on: July 17, 2017, 04:30:54 PM »
Charctic has not been working for me for days.  Not sure why.  I'm glad it is working for others. I thought it might be no longer being supported.

Looking at the climate reanalyzer I expect more massive melting almost all the way around.  Not that rapid melt is not characteristic of mid-July. 

I find myself just watching this summer, mostly in silence......   I keep waiting for our U.S. data sources to fall silent under our new "leadership" as well.  Meanwhile the laws of physics and chemistry remain, politics can't change them.  It is simply a matter whether the chaotic weather patterns leave the arctic lucky or unlucky.  One of these summers we will have another massive record breaker.  Will it be this one?

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: January 20, 2017, 09:28:02 PM »
All references to Climate change have been removed from the White House page as of noon, when Trump was sworn in as POTUS.  Any bets on how long the U.S. government will continue to track arctic and antarctic ice?  NSIDC, NOAA, NASA climate data's day may be numbered.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
« on: November 22, 2016, 07:27:44 PM »

7
Arctic sea ice / Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« on: August 07, 2016, 05:53:30 PM »
The question is, how much of this mobile, thin, shattered ice will melt out from bottom melt in the next few week.  Higher salt water is flowing in from the North Atlantic. Anomalous pockets of warmth still persist north of Canada.

I know that the HYCOM thickness maps are considered unreliable but still I suspect truth in this.  August 6 2012 vs 2016.  How much will go "poof"?

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 10, 2016, 10:20:37 PM »
Neven,

By "not good track record" do you mean by comparing it to other estimates?  Or do you mean internally comparing its estimates to others of its estimates in previous years.  I was doing the latter.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2016 melting season
« on: June 10, 2016, 09:52:26 PM »
bbr2314,  I was just doing the same thing.  :P  Mine includes 2012,2013,2014, and 2016.  I left off 2015 for symmetry.

This year is pretty dramatically different from the others.  Thick ice is simply largely gone.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 24, 2016, 04:58:06 PM »
I will give you the ESS, yes, in most years it is not an "easy" melter.  The Hudson certainly is though and the implication in the original post was that there is nowhere for continued fast drops to occur in.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS
« on: May 23, 2016, 07:19:12 PM »
Someone mentioned before but the "easy" ice seems gone and now the more robust is slower to melt.

Hardly.  The vast majority of the Hudson Bay, Baffin, the Kara, the ESS are yet to go and the Hudson always melts out entirely.  Lots of easy stuff yet to go.

12
Arctic sea ice / Re: The Mail's Great White Arctic Sea Ice Con
« on: January 26, 2016, 12:46:31 AM »
I like to keep suggesting that they look up the definition of "weather" and of "climate" and to learn that they are not synonyms.

13
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: September 14, 2015, 12:28:47 AM »
Suddenly a completely different view from obuoy 10.  It had been rotating a bit and occasionally showing other instruments and a completely flat landscape of floes and narrow channels.  Now this.

14
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: September 09, 2015, 06:47:55 AM »
There is still a lot of action in the ESS, look at this pair of images, top is Sept 4, bottom is Sept 7

15
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: September 08, 2015, 12:44:30 AM »
Darth Arctic

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: September 02, 2015, 11:07:44 PM »
Friday's forecast is interesting, warm over Alaska, a solid cyclone over Novaya Zemla, other low pressure areas.  I'm not sure if this will affect the Atlantic side or not.  We shall see.

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 30, 2015, 10:22:25 AM »
Ice thickness for the end of August comparison for the last 4 years.  All August 28 except for 2012 which was missing it.  I remember assuming that some old fast ice would always remain in the CAA.  This year is so different on that front. OTOH every year is unique.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Stupid Questions :o
« on: August 14, 2015, 04:55:59 PM »
Why is the DMi arctic sea ice extent so much higher than everyone else's?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 13, 2015, 03:33:27 PM »
Another lovely pic from #9

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: August 01, 2015, 09:11:53 AM »
And then o-buoy 9 met up with a thicker floe and you can't tell that it ws free before.  The movie is pretty up-to date so you can watch it happening.


22
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: August 01, 2015, 08:59:48 AM »
: helorime  July 28, 2015, 05:05:19 AM

    Big ol' Floes disintegrating and going "poof" in the Beaufort July 22 on right, 27 on left.

Looks like you got the dates reversed??

yep, fixed.  Thanks!

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 28, 2015, 09:25:18 PM »
Cool - what's your specific field?  I work on molecular genetics of reproduction and sex chromosome biology :-)

My specific area is mitochondrial DNA Replication, particularly in yeast, but I did my PhD in a DNA tumor virus lab where we worked on DNA replication in general as well as oncogenesis.  I am a University professor and teach Virology, molecular and Cellular Biology, Genetics, Cancer Biology, an even non-majors bio here and there.  I also have some expertise in feline genetics.

I started watching this forum in 2012, and spend a lot of time trying to convince conservative friends that climate change is not fake and a conspiracy manufactured by Obama and scientists who are brain-washed liberals, aimed to destroy American industry (I'm not kidding).


24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 28, 2015, 06:45:39 PM »
you can't deny the overall pattern of arrogance amongst many scientists over the decades, shutting down other voices, by acting like they are the only ones who understand the world. Not all of them, but the most vociferous and influential have done it for decades. It's not just industry scientists. Scientists cannot possibly understand the world, (unless they go deeper than science) because the nature of science is one-sided, completely piecemeal, and poorly connected partial knowledge.

I think the view that scientists are arrogant as a group is mistaken.  Scientists make observations, develop hypotheses, design experiments, collect data and interpret the results.  We (I am a scientist.... though a molecular geneticist not a climate scientist) are constantly retesting, double-checking, checking each other and refining our methods and understanding.  We have a large body of knowledge and understanding.  It is like any other area of expertise.  People generally don't say surgeons are one-sided and arrogant in thinking that they understand how to make incisions modify thing and then seal up what they have done, why look at 50 years ago!  They used to do things differently then so they cannot possibly understand what they are doing.

We talk about probabilities and what seems to be the most likely.  No scientist when pressed, will say they are 100% certain of anything, because there is always more information that can be gathered, and unexpected events that can happen - unlike people who base their views on opinion and belief.

It never fails to astound me that so many people recognize expertise, skills, and knowledge in other areas yet easily dismiss science and scientists if they find that the information contradicts their beliefs.  In my area, molecular biology and genetics, the big ones are evolution, vaccinations, and GMO, all wildly misunderstood by many individuals and those individuals are completely unwilling to learn anything about how those processes work.

Climate scientists have the best understanding of climate, and the vast majority are very concerned about human-driven climate change, which is what we are watching here, happenening in the arctic, in this forum.

<modifed because I sent it off too fast, and never got back on topic>

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: July 28, 2015, 06:10:30 AM »
Deja View  ;)

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 28, 2015, 05:05:19 AM »
Big ol' Floes disintegrating and going "poof" in the Beaufort July 22 on left, 27 on right.

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 27, 2015, 03:19:38 PM »
PS the surface has become whiter yesterday, and more uniform which looks to me like a thin dusting of snow. A reminder perhaps that July is nearing its end and surface temperatures can go down as well as up.

Indeed Greenland has been the one very cold spot in recent days.


28
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 09, 2015, 05:10:59 PM »
Greenland from my favorite buoy this summer, obuoy 9 passing very close to the northeastern tip of the island.

edited for wrong image.

29
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 04, 2015, 08:11:36 PM »
It's in better light now.  I wonder how high those ice-blocks are.  I know that the obuoy cameras distort perspective so they are closer and smaller than they look, but still it's interesting.

30
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: July 03, 2015, 04:01:33 PM »
Look at what has happened suddenly at obuoy 9 as it has gotten to the northeast tip of Greenland!

31
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 28, 2015, 05:07:10 PM »
Oddly toggling through the years at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php it superficially appears that all the 2000's have had cooler arctic summer than average, and it was the 90's where it was warmer than usual.

32
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: June 25, 2015, 11:11:54 PM »
The floe behind the one that obuoy 9 is on was detached quite a while ago, looking at the movie.  The ridge appears to have occurred when that floe moved away and then bashed back in and slid or turned against the edge of the bouy's floe.

Having said that, I suspect that 9's floe is going to fall apart soon. al the groozes between the camera and the edge appear to be deepening and melting.  I suspect they are cracks that will fracture all the way through.

33
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 25, 2015, 11:06:13 PM »
Beware of getting lost in analysis that ignores other major factors.  Imagine that this had NOT had the lowest maximum ever, but had had an average maximum, and yet were still at the exact ice area and extent that we are now.  The loss would have been much higher.

So, compare your trend to the absolute number on this date compared to the number at minimum and see what that correlation looks like.


34
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 23, 2015, 04:02:16 PM »
50F, 10C at Alert.  My question is, with all this warm air of the last several days, why isn't the ice disintegrating rapidly?  I keep expect1 to 2 century drops and they are not coming.

35
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 22, 2015, 01:43:29 AM »
48F (9C) at both Barrow and Alert.  Hot in Alaska and eastern Siberia, warm all around the arctic.  There must be a lot of melting going on right now.

36
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 19, 2015, 05:10:53 PM »
Yip!  Said it backwards, yes MULTIYEAR ice has a higher melting temp.  First year ice melts at a lower temp, so more quickly, due to the salt content.

Edited because I just can't seem to put the right words in the right places.  solutes in water lowers the freezing point/ melting point.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 19, 2015, 01:05:25 PM »
Yes.  FYI has more salt and a lower melting temp as a result.  The salt slowly gets purged from the ice over time.  The salt forms brine pockets as the ocean water freezes, compression over time tends to break those pockets and squeeze out the salt.  In summer melt water can wash through remaining channels and if the ice survives the summer it then refreezes more solidly with less salt.

Note: Edited to correct my reversed first sentence.  Yikes! Said higher when I meant lower.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: June 10, 2015, 10:30:23 PM »
39 F (4 C) at Alert, 70 F (21 C) at Tuktoyaktuk!

39
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 23, 2015, 07:43:28 AM »
Wow, that's impressive!

O-Buoy #9   #9   #9  is starting to develop a serieas of new cracks right around it.  Even though it is still quite cold there immediately North of Greenland, it may not have functionality long either.

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: May 22, 2015, 07:46:07 PM »
Looks like Alaska is going to stay unusually warm for a while.  https://www.adn.com/article/20150521/unusual-weather-pattern-brings-record-highs-barrow

41
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Image of the Day
« on: May 17, 2015, 09:36:14 AM »
Well drat.  I just mentioned that on the "What the buoys are telling us" thread before I spotted that you had put a picture from it here.  ::)

42
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: May 17, 2015, 09:34:41 AM »
O-buoy 9 is head across the top of Greenland and has a good sized lead http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy9/camera

43
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: May 13, 2015, 09:02:41 PM »
Another observation, just a difference between last year and this year.  If you look at the MODIS satellite images from yesterday and a year ago, you will notice that Northern Alaska is well greened up, clearly into a green and growing spring, whereas a year ago that same areas were still very brown. 

44
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 13, 2015, 04:16:13 AM »
What happened to Cryosphere today.  Site has been down all day....

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: March 21, 2015, 09:01:35 PM »
Is there a chart title other than this?

2% of max extent gone. Lowest as of February 27th, but with a Friday margin of just 68 km2 back to 2006

That title says nothing about graphing the difference from the 2015 value.  It implies that it should be of % difference from maximum extent, though it clearly isn't.  I am only saying this to be helpful here.  Knowing what the graph is of makes it more interesting and informative.

46
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: March 21, 2015, 08:39:14 PM »
Do you have to read all of that? Of course not! I assume you live in a somewhat free country and can do what you want. Only if you were curious about what was displayed in the plot, you would naturally proceed to read the entire sentence.

I see that you do not understand my comment.  That's ok. Peter Ellis likely has it right.  Your graph appears to be of previous year's sea-ice extent differences from 2015 by calendar date.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: March 21, 2015, 08:18:53 PM »
The title on the graph said "2% of max extent gone, lowest as on February 27th" but all the numbers were + not negative, I am talking about the first graph above these comments.  Not feeling dazed and confused, feeling like the graph is poorly labeled.  I think Pete Ellis's comments make sense.  I had not paid attention to the fact that the X-ais was blue and might be 2015, with the other numbers representing sea ice extent for a particular year with the 2015 value subtracted.  If that is the case then the graph should be titled something like "Sea ice extent difference from 2015 by date"

48
Arctic sea ice / Re: IJIS/JAXA
« on: March 21, 2015, 07:54:28 PM »
Viddaloo.  I have to say that I have been looking at your graphs for a long time and I have no idea what they are of.  They have dates on the X axis, ok, I get that.  Color coding by year, I understand that too, and then numbers on the Y axis that are amounts of something.  What is that something?  500k or a million of what?  It cannot be total sea ice concentration, nor area, nor thickness..... it is too big to be change from the previous day, nor deviation from the norm.  What is it?  I am clearly missing something obvious here.

49
Arctic sea ice / Re: Is first year ice getting slushier?
« on: March 11, 2015, 12:29:15 AM »
Yes.  Being that it is the end of the "refreeze" I would expect places like the Norht and Northwest of Greenland to be very very frozen.  In stead there appears to be a surprising amount of slushy looking stuff and even open water in channels and fjords in all the satellite images, and then there is a big hole that opened up in the border of the Kara and the CAB by the Franz Joseph islands.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php

50
Arctic sea ice / Re: Arctic Refreeze Discussion: 2014/2015
« on: February 19, 2015, 09:51:59 PM »
Meanwhile it stays cold in the great lakes area of the U.S.  Interetesting that this is the 2nd year of this odd weather pattern. It is substantially colder in Youngstown Ohio today than it is in Barrow Alaska.  ???

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