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1
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: Today at 04:48:55 PM »
a quick note to Phoenix ..

do we need a 'mission statement ? We are not on a mission , nor are we missionaries .
 
A 'natural tension' should not exist between you and FRiv .. the ignore button may mean you are alone .
 
You should not be competing with him or anyone else , especially not with the aim of 'persuading others what to believe' .. bring your facts and figures , the ice will confirm them or otherwise as the season and years progress  . 

                   b.c.

2
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: Today at 04:34:52 PM »
I note you didn't rest long on your laurels .. or anything else .. another 1111 before freeze sets in ? :) b.c.

3
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 13, 2020, 10:10:26 PM »
There's plenty more drama to come in July !
  The Laptev has taken a first good bite out of the CAS : in the last 24hrs the ice edge has retreated a further 20km and moved 30 km . The 2 floes in the 'bay' @135 E 81 N can be seen travel 60km in 2 days , this is impressive and not assisting their longevity . A prize for anyone who spots faster moving ice :) 
  Hi sailor .. I guess 'the forecast ' is the EURO ? . The trouble with the last 3 weeks is that the worst forecast for the ice becomes reality while all else fades or becomes a co-facilitator of harm . All promise of cooling uppers has vanished for now too . (just read your update .. it makes this relevant ) ..
 
https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2020062012/gfsnh-15-252.png?12 .. I started watching this Siberian heat being promised .. and it came 10 days later and left it's mark on the ice ,
https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/2020070112/gfsnh-15-6.png?12
and apparently all time record temps at the pole .. yet to be confirmed I think .
 The GAAC has held sway ever since and still does for days to come . Another surge of Siberian heat is not what the Arctic needs but is very probably what it will get .
  What the Arctic needs for the month of August is NO weather ! Climate is enough .
 

4
Arctic sea ice / Re: Northern Sea Route thread
« on: July 12, 2020, 06:44:07 PM »
If the mega crack becomes open sea is there a name for that route ?

5
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 12, 2020, 04:06:32 PM »
 A report i haven't seen on ASIF or even being remotely suggested by recent dmi80 graph .. all time temperature record at the north Pole ..
     https://twitter.com/xavierfettweis/status/1281511326137962496/photo/1                         
 
'' The Blob warned us  Retweeted
Xavier Fettweis
@xavierfettweis
·
10 Jul
According to the NCEP-NCARv1 reanalysis, records of near-surface temperature at North-Pole (80°N-90°N) seem to have occurred on 5 and 6 July 2020 when the daily mean temperature was +4°C (Previous record +3.5°C). This must be however confirmed with the ERA5 reanalysis. ''

I recommend keeping an eye on mr Blobby's tweets (@ The Blob warned us ) ..  ;D b.c.

6
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 10:49:15 PM »
pretty much every forecaster agrees .. the GAAC is here to stay another week at least . The latest gfs has it slipping away in 15 days . The basin of ice is set to keep spinning and shrinking . The winds are looking stronger , with easterly gales from the Bering to the Fram north of Eurasia over the next few days.
  I see more and more ice ready to go the way of Kara's brown ice which is now mostly gone . Pagophilus's brown ice in Chukchi extends by degrees well into the CAB , ready to collapse before tide , wind wave and current  . None of the ice from Chukchi to the Atlantic has what it takes to get to winter . It may not have what it takes to get to August !
As johnm33 posted earlier on the hycom thread the remaining ice has lost the capacity to crack at any significant scale . It is clearly not becalmed ! 
https://media.giphy.com/media/l0FQB0AZDXG4ISsj5U/giphy.gif

Nothing to stop top and bottom melt continuing apace .. plenty more sun and momentum .
as the hycom gif shows , we pretty much have 2/3rds of the CAS exposed to open water .
 
The CAA- Greenland mega crack is doing fine .. a few thousand sq kms of warming water where there was always multiyear ice in the past . btw .. Did anyone notice the 10 mile cube of ice balanced above Ellesmere on the latest worldview ? Yesterday offered fine views of the  N. Greenland Sea .
 The ice in Lincoln is on the move .. with the GAAC easterly , most of it seems intent on heading for Beaufort at @ 10 km /day though the ice N. of Ellesmere has travelled 60 km in the last 3 days . Some of this ice may make it to the refreeze .
 2020 is fast becoming a vision of the future .. b.c.


7
Arctic sea ice / Re: September predictions challenge 2020
« on: July 11, 2020, 07:04:45 PM »
.. says an optimist . :) b.c.

8
Arctic sea ice / Re: What the Buoys are telling
« on: July 10, 2020, 11:50:02 AM »
the pond drainage and colour change remind me of nothing more than our home-made ice lollies in the '60's .. you could suck all the colour and flavour out of them and still be left with porous ice on a stick that looked just like the ice after drainage .. a crunchy skeleton .. b.c.

9
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 06:59:19 PM »
Sorry ..  having seen the loss of ice apparent in Aluminium's gif I was not ready to see a stall when in reality it was as bad a 4 day run as I've ever seen . And only a couple of days ago I was the one saying 'melt ponds' to Phoenix .. just today it did not compute .. massive ice loss recorded as a pause .. b.c.

10
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 04:14:04 PM »
ta grixm  .. as it's very obvious actual area is shrinking during the last 4 days I suppose it must be assumed the drainage of melt ponds has helped cancel out the real decline ..
  open water has moved from 82.1'N to 82.8'N over the last week . If the current rate of melt/retreat continued , open water would reach the pole by mid September . Of course bottom melt could accelerate this and a change in weather could postpone it for another year .. b.c.

11
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 03:43:08 PM »
While extent continues to drop, area has actually stalled for the last 4 days. More draining melt ponds?

 where is that graph from ? what is it showing? 
.. and why does it bear no relation to Gerontocrat's updates or what appears to be happening ? b.c.

12
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 09, 2020, 01:06:07 PM »
As a consequence of the idiocy found daily on fb I posted this today ..

IMPORTANT NOTICE :
               
                 The means of Corona virus spread has finally been identified .

                           It is caused by the love farts of flying pigs

 any scientific arguement against this SELF-EVIDENT TRUTH will be met with laughter

13
Fuck off you mother fucking cunts ! It's time for moderation ! :) just b.c.

<moderation done - BK>

14
Indeed 2020 .. you want the shitty ending ?

 ..  As even Phoney's Beaufort's ice drifts to oblivion the Democrat's promise such change that Trump returns triumphant on a rising tide of fear ! :) b.c.

15
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: July 08, 2020, 11:36:30 AM »
can anyone explain German humour ? :) b.c.

16
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 08, 2020, 09:22:48 AM »

17
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:14:39 PM »
The 5 day average NSIDC loss in the CAB on July 4 was 83.8k km2 or a total of 418k for the 5 days.

The current 5 day average through July 6th is 15.7k km2 or 88.5k km2 for the 5 days.

The difference in CAB area decline for the two days that left the 5 day average (June 30 and July 1) and the last two days that entered the 5 day average is 330k km2.

There are many potential explanations and I'm not going to try. Just an interesting bit of data to mull over.

melt ponds draining .. next step on the way to iceobliteration .. b.c.

18
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 06:00:08 PM »
If you want to see what happens next if we have another week or two of anticyclone followed by whatever comes next take a look at Kara/ CAB . Browned ice is simply vanishing in situ. The streak from 79N 90E to 82N 90E ..@ 50,000 sqkm of 3 days ago has been collapsing .. especially where it has been pushed toward the island
  https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=815180.4200908248,944464.758704975,1164876.4200908248,1112656.758704975&p=arctic&t=2020-07-05-T15%3A10%3A34Z&l=Graticule(hidden),Coastlines(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Night(hidden,palette=green_1,min=220.7,max=240.2,squash=true),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor


 just play the next 2 days .. b.c.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 11:35:11 AM »
[quote author=Phoenix link=topic=3017.msg272304#msg272304 date=1594107461

OK...what is epic about the 10 day forecast? I see a temp forecast at 850 hpa. Google tells me this is generally about 1.5km above sea level, above the boundary layer.

If I open the GFS forecast and look what's doing in 10 days at sea level, I see the warm spots wherever this is open water in the forecast and all the ice covered areas are actually pretty mild ..

 ++++++++++++++++

It's not as if you haven't been helped to understand the relevance of using 850hpa temps before ..
[/quote]
The 850 hPa temperature is somewhere away from the ice. I'm not sure of the altitude, maybe someone with more knowledge than me can provide that.

But it is the temperature adjacent to the ice that is going to impact the ice, not the temperature 1,000 feet above sea level. For the benefit of the lurkers who are reading the thread, I think it's useful to kick the tires and questions some assumptions about the magnitude of the current events.

The heat coming into the Chukchi and ESS and the high winds pushing ice through Fram is quite significant and easily understandable and acceptable. No problem.

Maintaining heat over ice for a very long distance over ice and delivering it to the surface of much of the CAB where it can impact the ice in May is a completely differently animal. Skepticism of this is healthy from a scientific perspective.

Surface air temperatures over the ice are held close to a 0C maximum due to the latent heat of fusion of ice. This is quite apparent each year on the DMI 80N temperatures. For that reason, using something like the 850hPa temperature (or the less common, 925hPa value) is useful for assessing the relative heat mass over the ice. It's far from perfect, and temperature inversions, fog and such will add more complications, but much of the time in summer, 850hPa temperatures are more useful than surface temperatures.

20
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 06, 2020, 01:21:57 PM »
indeed Jim .. also a great day to look back at 2013 .. it looked like the end of the world in comparison to today .. yet it has become 'just another year' . b.c.

21
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 06, 2020, 12:59:36 PM »
What do you think, what is the chance that melting could reach North Pole this year from the Russian side?

  or Greenland ?

I was very confident in 2016 and then the melting season stalled , as did the freezing season . A cool August can change everything . But this year has a very different feel thus far .

 Could that 977mb 'storm' way out at 384 hrs be replaced by a 1025+ high in the next forecast ? It has been known to happen ! :) b.c.
 
ps 1030+ ! .. still plenty of time for a storm or few .. more melt in the meantime ...

22
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: July 01, 2020, 02:05:46 AM »
Thanks JayW .. the moment has been lost now from Worldview .. but you have captured it beautifully .. bc

23
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 01:24:17 AM »
How is northern Siberia hotter than Turkmenistan?  Crazy.

sun , sun and more sun , 24 hrs on .. and on and on .. meanwhile they shiver in the cold desert dawn in Turkmenistan , fresh to meet the heat of the day again .. b.c.

24
Arctic sea ice / Re: The caa-greenland mega crack
« on: July 01, 2020, 01:16:36 AM »
There was a lift-off of the ice East of Alert around to the Nares enterance . It can be seen best on Worldview atm as you zoom in @ 50km/50ml a.. as you zoom closer the frame changes to showing cracking but the departure from shore is no longer clear .
  Lincoln is an amazing zone of shear , disintergration and melting of what looked like the safest ice in the Arctic only 2 weeks ago .
         +++             It's now gettin' ground up like salt in situ !  b.c.

25
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 10:16:24 PM »
hi JNap , for sun I don't recall any better period than last year but @ 30 days earlier .. I recall the sun shining at the pole for days on end , it was earlier and cooler . The ice between Siberia and the pole looks worse now than last year after the event .. b.c.

26
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 09:52:10 PM »

27
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 09:15:12 PM »
It looks like the final break-up in the Nares strait is a fact.

 what made me change my date ? Oh yes .. it's been the 30th June 3 times before of late .. impressive for such an apparently random event .

 btw Fg .. that latest forecast has the remains of Jac in the rather impressive Siberian low out at day 10 . I followed a long lived little storm over the basin before .. this one has certainly played a role this summer and much more to come it seems .
 
Unless a lot changes and soon , this year may well beat 2012 by a 'country mile'  . b.c.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 08:56:58 PM »
the latest gfs is so far 'beyond belief' as far as the Arctic basin is concerned that it seems to have crashed or been pulled at 240 hours out .. I've never seen a gfs forecast get stuck before .. but then I've never seen one like this ..
     https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020063012/gfsnh-0-240.png?12 which follows ..
     https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020063012/gfsnh-0-54.png?12?12 which follows ..
     https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020063012/gfsnh-15-18.png?12

I said a couple of days ago every forecast was worse than the last . Surely this is enough ? b.c.

29
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 30, 2020, 01:25:47 AM »
and just @ every thought above has been raised by me over the years .. from changing the stupid Q title to hiving off the politics .
 Idiot that I was , I came here to learn and access the knowledge and leads of those already busy providing access to a wealth of info . As a newbie I lurked .. probably took 2 years to make 100 posts . I appreciated what I had found ( invited here by Born From The Void .. an occasional visitor these days (and scientist) ) and have rarely missed a day in over 7 years .
 I pm'd A-team 10 days ago .. he's well and still active in the background . Funny , when I searched for A-team , a comment from Rod to Rich (Phoenix) appeared .

Re: Prepping for Collapse
« Reply #65 on: July 14, 2019, 04:11:27 AM »
LikeQuote
Quote from: Rich on July 14, 2019, 03:59:57 AM
Rod,

Stop with the amateur mind reading.

....

That said, maybe some people think a newbie should just shut up and listen and not participate until after the world is condemned to a shitty outcome? We can agree to disagree about that.

I don't aspire to be popular and liked by anyone but I'm not doing anything with the intention of pissing anyone else off either. I'm not a troll. An asshole? OK. But not a troll. I'm genuine and transparent (which may be worse depending on your perspective).

Thanks for pointing out that I screwed up the quotation marks in that recent comment. I fixed it asap.

''This is bull shit.  We have all supported your right to post your theories even as a newbie.   I went to war for you with A-team when he tried to shut you up.''

I’m getting discouraged by the way you continuously say things that are on the fringe, and then pretend to be insulted when people point out your mistakes.

It has become very disruptive.

                     ......


 It was that sort of thing that caused me to offer my services in moderation . And that had nothing to do with the political threads but rather the politics and gamesmanship going on in the Cryosphere threads the last couple of seasons which has been a spur to A-team and others stepping back
 None of this helps the ice or educates anyone . I'd rather be everyone's friend and get on with watching the greatest show on earth until my gb's run out ( as they do most months )

..and as I (and Oren) say .. only Neven has a say .. b.c.

30
Anyone that gets their scientific information from Facebook, deserves what they get.


sadly , that seems to be most of my friends on facebook .. before , they used to show discernment , now they are parrots and trumpettes ..

and I certainly wouldn't want the moderator's job ..

31
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 28, 2020, 04:46:11 PM »
Indeed Uniquorn , had thought shadows may have been playing tricks but it looks pretty certain the Nares is open for business .. b.c.

 12 hours later and I'm not so sure ..

32
' Zuckerberg is scum ' .. my train of thought yesterday included the option of going back in time and changing the world of today .. I chose to help avoid Zuckerberg being . b.c.

33
Consequences / Re: Forests: An Endangered Resource
« on: June 28, 2020, 12:02:21 PM »
here Channel 4 reported on IKEA's devastation of Ukraine's ancient beech forests , illegally harvested but every tree has it's FSC stamp . Corruption at every level .. b.c.

https://www.channel4.com/news/from-chainsaw-to-chair-ikeas-illegally-sourced-furniture

34
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 28, 2020, 11:58:55 AM »
if Trump gets in again , middle finger salutes may attract the death penalty just bc .

35
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 28, 2020, 04:00:26 AM »
^^ + 1

36
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 28, 2020, 03:41:32 AM »
Indeed Uniquorn , had thought shadows may have been playing tricks but it looks pretty certain the Nares is open for business .. b.c.

37
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 27, 2020, 11:50:41 PM »
.. and if that Euro were to be realized Kara would be ice-free in 10 days . The Laptev wouldn't be far behind and there would be little thick ice hiding behind islands .It ends with a much weakened and warmed CAA being tested .
  The gfs has become progressively warmer with each forecast today as well .. b.c.

38
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 27, 2020, 11:29:10 PM »
Quote from: Gandul   At first glance, that was an area which froze last year when a few days before it had been actively melting, and had had large areas of open water interspersed with partially melted-out MYI floes. This year the thin FYI melted all-at-once, and it's deja-vu all over again.

Quote from: Pagophilus on Today at 08:00:18 PM
Has there been some refreeze in the ESS?  Or is this old refreeze? Or not.  Second image is for locating the first 'closeup'.  Worldview 06/27/2020.
I am too inexperienced to tell, or to know if this is even possible at this point in the year.  Whatever it is, this ??? refreeze ??? ice seems present over much of the ESS 'rubble ice field'.  Will gladly receive an education on this.

 

.. and although Jac lacked GAC status it certainly had (and continues to have) local oomph , including lowering temperatures esp. at 850mb but at sea level too . The GAC in August 2016 brought lower temps throughout the basin and (in my opinion) brought the melting season to an unexpectedly rapid end . b.c.

39
there is a report of movement the length of the strait on the melt thread , but I'm not so sure , little movement at the N end beyond the new crack .. but it does seem only hours away ..

40
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 27, 2020, 08:18:20 PM »
Hi Pagophilus can you show an earlier shot of it before it 'froze' for comparison , as I'm not sure anything much has changed .

41
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: June 27, 2020, 03:53:13 PM »
Thanks JD .. your no dig detailed info is invaluable :)
 b.c.

42
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: June 27, 2020, 01:08:23 PM »
with the northern ice all having moved last w/e and now the bulk of the southern half on the move , only the actual arch and @ 50km of ice in the north/central had not moved by last night . A lot of ice has moved @ 10 km in the last 3 days so the pressure has certainly built up . As Monday is my forecast for the arch to fail , I'm enjoying the excitement and spectacularly good visibility atm . b.c.

43
Consequences / Re: COVID-19
« on: June 26, 2020, 05:03:54 PM »
An almost stupid question ..
 ever since the first image of this coronavirus appeared in the British media it has been shown as rather pretty and multi-coloured .. any 3 year old would love a few in their Xmas stocking .. https://www.lungcancerresearchfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/coronavirus.jpg

could such pretty pics have affected Boris and co.'s response ? Could such images have resulted in more death than if they had been dark , gray and forboding ? b.c.

<cleaned up link. kassy>

44
The forum / Re: Forum Decorum
« on: June 26, 2020, 01:56:37 PM »
  ^^ I go where 'e goes ..:)

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 26, 2020, 12:24:27 PM »
''This model has been showing an active garlic press, or perhaps cheese grater or ice cream scoop since may.'' .. OTG post 1871 ..
  Oh No it hasn't .. no ice has moved south through the channels .. the very definition of the garlic press at work . As Friv has since highlighted , a southerly will continue to roast the channels over the coming days and probably push the main pack off shore . This is the weather preparing the way for activity sooner or later .. i fear sooner .. b.c.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 26, 2020, 12:57:58 AM »
That HYCOM model ^^ predicts lift off of the thickest ice , which may soon come slamming back and have us an active garlic press by the middle of July . Just one of the many reasons this could still be BOE No 1 ! b.c.

48
June 29th is getting closer .. as is our grand opening . Then ten days later , the garlic Press .. :) b.c.

49
The rest / Re: Good music
« on: June 24, 2020, 12:14:27 PM »
whisper it loudly .. <3

50
The politics / Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
« on: June 23, 2020, 09:18:43 PM »
  ^^^ this is why I didn't choose to let this thread through .. can we at least drop it from the front page ?
 

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