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Messages - gregb

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Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: June 15, 2016, 03:45:48 AM »
What a difference 2 weeks makes.

Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: March 26, 2016, 09:09:59 PM »
Before someone goes off and creates a 2016 La Nina thread (should that come to pass), I would like to suggest that Neven (or whoever) simply start a new "ENSO" sticky thread each year. I also believe that we can drop some of the the daily observations as they are of little use or interest as we slip back into neutral territory.


Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: February 24, 2016, 10:20:43 PM »
How are the prospects for the odds regarding a transition to La Nina at this stage? What did early dissipating El Ninos look like in the end of February?

The 97/98 subsurface anomalies were quite similar to what we see now. And as we all probably know, a strong La Nina event followed.


Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: February 02, 2016, 10:04:53 PM »
In the 2016 freezing thread, Lord M Vader notes the possible return of the RRR. My observation: After promising and "normal" December and January temperatures and rainfall, February is looking like the return of Februly with temps forecast in the high 60s to low 70s and zippo rainfall in the next two weeks for the Northern Bay Area.  :( Not the drought buster we hoped for.

Weather does seem to be returning to the RRR pattern we saw last year. The following image from the long range GFS forecast looks like many from this time last year, with the same NA East/West temperature division and jet stream position. The anomalies shown below appear at the end of a forecasted week+ of warm, dry weather on the west coast. The rainfall totals have dropped off considerably in the NW since the start of the year and there is now none in the forecast after a weak system passes through over the next few days.

Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: January 25, 2016, 10:58:41 PM »
If you have been following ASLR's daily SOI posts, this should comes as no surprise:

According to NASA's Earth Observatory, this shift in the SOI was not missed by scientists monitoring the pattern:

Bill Patzert, a climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, sees the potential for a second peak for this El Niño. He pointed to a recent relaxation in the trade winds and a west wind burst that could refuel the warming trend in the eastern Pacific. Weaker trade winds in the eastern Pacific allow west wind bursts to push warm waters toward the Americas. Patzert suspects February and March 2016 could still be very active months for El Niño-driven weather along the western coasts of the Americas.

And a word regarding the CFS and other models - as I understand it, model skill will soon decrease as we approach the "spring barrier". Perhaps this is one cause for the increasingly chaotic output. I find it interesting that the CFS, unlike most other models, no longer indicates any sort of quick reversal into a La Nina state.

Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: January 16, 2016, 10:01:31 PM »
By tomorrow sunday we should see how much effect the recent extremely strong WWB have had on the subsurface anomalies!

No need to wait. Rapidly rising temperatures have been evident on the TAO bouy strings over the last week:

Consequences / Re: 2015/16 El Niño, the aftermath
« on: January 13, 2016, 10:45:31 AM »
With regards to the earlier posts, what appears to be the start of a new downwelling phase can also be seen on the TAO sensor array sectional (contours). The TOA data pentad leads the pentad analysis that appears on the NOAA page by a couple of days. It shows that the cold water has been pinched off and warmer water now reaches some depth. One had to think that the extended WWB of the last week or so would produce some sort of response even though the warm pool in the kelvin wave generation area has largely been displaced by the current El Nino event. It looks as though it has.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: December 11, 2015, 08:23:51 PM »
Attribution seems like a very sketchy concept. A rainy December in western Oregon? Good grief, there's been a temperate rain forest from northern California clear up to Juneau AK for thousands of years. Wet winters have been the norm the whole time (cf old coastal redwoods, fossil sitka spruce forests). What does it mean to attribute or not attribute a rainy December to this el nino? Mostly it seems we couldn't do either.

I agree. Yes, we receive our share of rains in the NW every winter (well, maybe not so much last year), but the rainfall totals are less than that of much of the eastern half of the US. We just get light rain or clouds, day after day, for 4-6 months. Regarding my earlier post, the difference this year is that numerous daily and monthly records have fallen since October. Mudslides have closed several key highways just in the last two days. We saw much of the same thing in California during the 83-84 El Nino and most of the W. coast in 97-98.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: December 10, 2015, 09:51:08 PM »
As predicted by the CFSv2, the bulk of the precipitation is being directed at the NW in December. We've been experiencing an almost continuous atmospheric river event that has produced incredible rainfall rates across the cascades in storm after storm. The weather over the last couple of days has produced flooding and record high temps in the 60s. Heck, I've been hearing thunder all morning. While one cannot definitively attribute our weather to the current El Nino, I'd say there's probably a pretty high likelihood the two are linked.

And yes, the last several months have brought an endless stream of press reports about promised rain and the potential for disastrous weather in CA. The expectation for heavy rains has been hyped to a ridiculous level, but it is still early yet. Californians should not expect to see an immediate impact - the jet stream may take a month or two to drift south. The heavy rains, if they come, may not arrive until the January/February time frame. If I recall correctly from my skiing days, the Sierras received an incredible amount of snow in March. The ski season at Mammoth was fantastic.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: November 06, 2015, 12:57:47 AM »
The CFSv2 forecast model output has become quite chaotic the last week or so. The most recent forecast members no longer show a quick reversal into La Nina conditions and several now predict 3.4 SSTAs remaining at relatively strong El Nino levels into the summer months. Should this come to pass, it would seem to support ASLR's observation in his post regarding the warm water volume and the reduced likelihood for a trailing La Nina event. The Pacific surface water is quite warm and might stay that way. I would not be surprised to see the global surface temperature anomalies in 2016 easily exceeding those of 2015.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: October 15, 2015, 10:42:04 PM »
October release of the ECMWF model plumes show a peak of 2.5-3.0C in the 3.4 region - very little change over last month's release. It does appear that the predicted peak would occur at a slightly later date, aligning the highest anomalies with the wettest months of the west coast rain season.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: October 13, 2015, 06:10:36 AM »
BoM also published their October release of the POAMA model output (attached). Their model predicts a peak anomaly of ~2.7C in the 3.4 region in the Nov<->Dec timeframe.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: October 10, 2015, 08:21:37 PM »
The GFS and ECMWF (and their ensembles) as well as the CFSv2 show a central Pacific WWB event as a distinct possibility after day 7. Some TC influence or augmentation appears possible as well, but it will be a few days before that becomes clearer. An intrusion of strong westerly anomalies into the central basin would shove the surface warm pool much further east and significantly augment the strength of this event. It's interesting to note that a similar event occurred in 1997 and this was responsible for the peak of the event in late Nov. This Nino appears to be running slower than 1997 (more akin to the timeframe of 82-83), so a Dec peak is more probable in my opinion.

To reinforce this point, the attached figure shows the magnitude of the 850mb wind anomalies that led to the peak in the 1997/98 event. Prior to appearance of the current WWB, the 2015/16 El Nino has not presented anything near that level. While not shown in the graph, the September index did not vary much from that of August, but I'm sure that it will be a much different story when the October data is released.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: October 09, 2015, 10:36:36 PM »
The new October UK Met ensemble forecast for the 3.4 region shows that the majority of members are forecasting a peak anomaly in the 2.5 - 3C range.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: October 07, 2015, 09:29:47 AM »
The monthly release of the NASA model is out (attachment 1). As has been the case for most of the year, the GMAO model still has the 3.4 region peaking near the 3C mark. Recent runs of the CFSv2 model now seem to be responding to the WWB activity of the last few weeks (attachment 2) and is now heading up towards 3C too. The PDF-corrected output of CFSv2, while still showing some upward movement, is quickly diverging from the other models, and now predicts temperatures below those that already exist (attachment 3). NCEP might need to work up a new climatology baseline after this event.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: October 03, 2015, 01:54:23 AM »
Perhaps more evidence of a strengthening El Nino and the source of the beautiful weather we are experiencing here in the NW.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2015 melting season
« on: August 27, 2015, 08:04:06 PM »
Speaking of clobbered. Look at the damage being done by the waves on the waterfront in Barrow.

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