So back to topic - yes, the lack of export of heat out of the Arctic this winter is very alarming, and may in fact be a state change signal. Interestingly, I don't think that state change is in the Arctic itself, but rather is in global heat circulation and the disintegration of discrete cellular circulation in the atmosphere (Hadley Cells, Ferrel Cells, Arctic Cells). Long term, decreased ice will cause that particular signal to amplify, and perhaps add a new "limb" to our "pendulum".
I have been very interested in the changes in the atmospheric circulation in the NH, particularly since the end of 2010.
I've sort of addicted to watching the animations of water vapor via:
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=west&channel=wv&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flashand
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=coms&channel=wv&coverage=fd&file=gif&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flashThere used to be 5 to 7 distinct "streams" heading from the Equator to the Pole, going from the southwest toward the northeast
There was a noticeable, albeit small, change in late 2010, that grew ever larger with the passage of time, until now you can easily see that there are only 3 main "streams" (very broad ones), and they flow toward the east, and much less toward the northeast.
You can observe this better here:
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_NHEM/animwjap.htmlThe circulation in the Southern Hemisphere has also begun to go off its "normal" rails, but since Antarctica is huge and can maintain its cold much better, the effect nowhere nearly as extreme as what is going on in the north.
jdallen, you are the first person I have seen mention this. Surely there are some articles about it by now.