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Messages - bassman

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Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: May 07, 2015, 03:50:29 AM »
BornFTV,  I think the fact that the Met Office has April surface temps of .557 (warmest April surface temp anomaly on record) means that April has a good shot at being in the mid 70's or possibly higher despite what I assume is just land surface temps (maybe I'm wrong?) that you are showing.  Thanks for doing that by the way its much appreciated.  I should credit Olof, who made the same argument on Nick Stokes blog.

Ocean Surface temps from Met Office for the top 4 April months:

2015   .557
2010   .501
1998   .489
2014   .478



Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: March 14, 2015, 02:59:48 AM »
Feb 2015 comes in as the 2nd warmest on record with a .79 anomaly for NASA LOTI.

This is behind the mega el nino boosted 1998 Feb of .86.  2015 is now at .77 (Jan + Feb) so far for the year with only a small influence from el Nino at this point. I know its early, but I already don’t see how 2015 isn’t the warmest year on record unless a rapid and very unexpected shift into la nina conditions occurs. Other years have started off this warm, especially 2007, but 2015 is likely to have some very warm months ahead if this shift back to positive PDO remains. We could be looking at a much warmer year than 2014.

March is looking like a + .7 month so far according to GFS numbers.

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Niño?
« on: March 11, 2015, 01:57:44 AM »
AbruptSLR,  I think it has been a year since I started reading this thread, keep up the good work!  I have a feeling 2015 is going to be far more interesting than 2014. 

On a more important note, is this chart related to the emerging el Nino, a melt response (pulse) in response to recent surface warming or just noise in the relentless rise in sea level?  I'm guessing all of the above. 

Image is desplayed on aviso

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: March 08, 2015, 05:34:47 AM »
Big new coverage bias and hiatus paper.   Maybe this comment should go in another thread but I think its really relevant to 2015.  Read the abstract (paper is behind a paywall) but it essentially states the following:

1.  Most of the hiatus has occurred in the NH winter temperatures as many on here have mentioned
2.  This slowdown in surface warming rate is largely due to missing coverage in the NH!

From abstract:

Estimates of the annual and seasonal temperature trends in 1998-2012 obtained by considering the concurrent effects of unforced natural variability and of coverage bias are much closer to the corresponding long-term trends. Reanalyses suggest that the coverage bias was exceptionally pronounced during recent years and that an area of strong warming was missed due to the incomplete observational coverage.

So, with January and February coming in very hot, did 2015 really need the coming el nino to beat 2014, very likely not.  This trend of colder temps in DJF was broken this winter  This year is going be very interesting.  It has the potential to be a 1998 style departure in surface temps with.  Does anyone else agree?

Hopefully some news stories and commentary will come out about this paper.

"Contributions of Atmospheric Circulation Variability and Data Coverage Bias to the Warming Hiatus†"

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: February 14, 2015, 04:16:43 AM »
Jan 2015 from James Hansen's site (link at bottom) is in at .75 (The NASA LOTI value may differ a tad).  This makes it the 2nd warmest January on record, which is a big start to the year.  For comparison, Jan 2007 came in at a whopping .92 anomaly (anyone care to explain that month?).  Jan 2015 at .74-.76 beats 2002 and 2003 at .71 and Jan 2014 at .68.  As Deep O has mentioned, Feb is running very hot so far likely giving 2015 a big head start.  A big head start to when compared to the slow 2014 (Jan .68 and Feb .43).  I'm already thinking again that we don't really need an el nino for 2015 to be the warmest on record but maybe I'm getting way ahead of myself.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: February 12, 2015, 10:17:37 PM »
To add further to this discussion, I think the strong PDO conditions are more influential for Dec to Feb temps than other months.  In fact, as has been noted by Tamino, most of the "slow down in warming" has occurred during these 3 months.  They seem to be particularly sensitive to El Niño conditions or lack of.  If Jan and Feb turn out to be record or near record warm they will set 2015 up to break 2014's record.  Ocean temps were 2nd warmest for Jan 2015 according to the Met office.   This year seems to be starting with quite a bang.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 14, 2015, 12:19:35 PM »
JMA has just reported December 2014 as the warmest Dec on record.  This is a bit warmer than I expected.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: January 10, 2015, 07:51:13 PM »
Does anyone know the source if this chart which I assume is made from Cowtan and Way 2013 data.  I have seen the same trend from other sources but can't verify this one.  Anyways, it will be interesting to see when the DJF pattern shifts back to a warmer trend.  As I think Tamino has mentioned before, most of the temporary surface warming slowdown seems to exist in these 3 months.  I'm guessing the PDO is the biggest culprit or possibly aerosols to some extent.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 30, 2014, 04:27:00 AM »
Deep Octopus,  thanks for that analysis, it is much appreciated :D.   I know in the grand scheme of things the final number in 2014 for NASA really doesn't matter that much at this point.  When considering how warm it got without any significant influence from an el nino,  a shift in PDO is apparently all it takes now with increasing ghg emissions. 

I wonder how many on this great blog would have predicted back in January that 2014 would be the warmest on record with ENSO neutral conditions dominating for most/all of the year.  Consider the image below from NOAA.  All it took for 2014 to break records were for ocean surface temps to return to the average trend line taken from 1970 to 2014. 

As far as December is concerned it seems that according to Levi Cowan's page, ocean temps again are likely to be the warmest on record.  This gives December a good chance at being in the top 3 as you mentioned earlier, considering that 2014 will have warmer ocean temperatures than 2003,2005,2006. 

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 26, 2014, 07:01:19 PM »
JMA has issued a preliminary report saying 2014 is the warmest on record at .27 beating 1998 which was at .22 (1981-2010 baseline). 

Also, if anyone can answer this I would be grateful.  Is Climate Reanalyzer of any use for global temps?  If you look at last years daily forecasts for each individual day and then average the month vs actual surface temp anomalies from NASA or NOAA, and then compare them to this year, it seems like they are not very predictive at all.  Not even close.  I know it has a different baseline but their is no correlation whats so ever.  Should I ignore these daily values all together and only use it for regional weather patterns?  For instance DEC 2013 had an average value of .22 anomaly and temps ended up in the low .60's for NOAA and NASA.  If you look at DEC 2014 there is no way it is going to be in the .80's. 

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: December 13, 2014, 07:24:39 PM »
NASA LOTI updated Nov at .65, other months updated, average for first 11 months of year 66.7 anomaly.  Depending on what happens for December, 2014 will now at least tie 2010 at .66 for hottest year on record. 

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 30, 2014, 07:44:50 PM »
If you review the Met ocean surface temp anamoly numbers, the hottest Nov surface temps based on a 1961 to 1990 baseline is .42 (2013).  So add .15 or so to what tropical tidbits shows and it seems that the oceans are still at record breaking surface temps.  I would think that cooler land temps this November will prevent Nov from another record overall, however.  On another issue, I'm glad that CNN has finally run a story on record breaking surface temps.

Science / Re: Comparing modelled and observed warming rates
« on: November 28, 2014, 04:31:42 AM »
Michael,  I have been following surface temps a lot over the last couple of years.  A couple of things I would like to say.  I don't think I have come across a single blog posting, comment, tweet or news story suggesting climate models should be adjusted to the warmer side in response to 2014 temperature anomalies.   2014 is still a strong sign of AGW, considering all the neg natural forcings at play (volcanic activity especially). People say its a neutral year but most people don't notice that the first couple months were influenced by slightly neg ENSO conditions.  It is the PDO, 0-2000 ocean temps that I am also paying close attention to rather than just surface temps.  See link below.

It's hard to see right now how surface temps don't start to really pick up over the next decade.  Maybe I'm being bold but I don't think surface temps will ever be as low as 2012 again.  One key sign will be a snapping back of DEC-FEB temps in the NH to higher values again.  Hope that helps.

Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: November 23, 2014, 07:16:09 PM »
JayW, Have to add a little humor to your serious comment.  My wife saw the website tropical tidbits (which wasn’t loading for me either over the last few days) on the address bar on my phone.  She thought it was an adult site for a few seconds.....

Consequences / Re: 2015 El Nino?
« on: November 15, 2014, 03:29:02 PM »
Thanks Neven and everyone else.  This forum is a daily read.  Also Neven, you spoke exactly what I have been thinking.   Something else I have been thinking about.  What are the odds of a La Niña happening before another El Niño?  I keep thinking that scenerio is very unlikely under current conditions.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: November 14, 2014, 03:26:54 PM »
NASA came in at .76, tied with 2005 for warmest October on record.  My crude average gives 2014 .664 for the year compared to .66 for 2005 and 2010.  Also JMA was the warmest in Oct by a big margin.  Right now, year to date it is slightly above .26 beating .22 for 1998 and .20 for 2013.

Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: November 06, 2014, 11:43:55 AM »
MEI is in for Sept/OCT at .36, down from .5 for Aug/Sept.  Can someone explain why it would be so low at this point with more El Niño like conditions developing.  Also, the warmest OCT sea surface temps have just been recorded according to the MET office.  How can the MEI index still be so low?

Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: October 23, 2014, 03:12:54 PM »
Good point Rubikscube.  It is a good indication of how strong the GHG forcing is now that 2014 will be the warmest on record.  The year began with what was almost a weak La Niña and flat neutral conditions most of the year.   I'm tempted to think 2015 could break surface temp records again even without an El Niño developing.   

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 14, 2014, 11:32:08 AM »
JMA is the warmest on record for September.  I think it's safe to say that JMA will have 2014 as the warmest on record. I haven't run the numbers yet but it was already in first place for the year. Before Sept.

1st. 2014(+0.34°C), 2nd. 2013(+0.26°C), 3rd. 2012(+0.25°C), 4th. 2009,2005(+0.22°C)

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 12, 2014, 07:20:42 PM »
Gray-Wolf,  Robert nails it.  I have always argued that even if we stay in a neg phase PDO or just plain similar ocean/atmospheric conditions as 2011, GHG forcing will simply overwhelm and neutral years will begin setting all time records.  It's hard to say how much the Kelvins waves have contributed this year but it seems that 2014 is going to take us to a new record for atleast NOAA and JMA.   2015 will likely crush 2014 if we get the slow burn El Niño that's forecasted.  See below.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: October 12, 2014, 03:40:23 AM »
s@&$t just got real,  NASA LOTI at .77 for September.  Hottest sept on record.  This beats 2005 at .73.  Check Robert Scribblers blog for a great post on it.

Science / Re: Global warming slowdown 'could last another decade'
« on: October 07, 2014, 09:52:42 PM »
Great post about ocean heat content in reference the 2 studies from Nature.  The deniers already ran with this one but it's really worrisome that more heat isn't going into the abyss.

Science / Re: Global warming slowdown 'could last another decade'
« on: October 06, 2014, 01:28:03 AM »

Here is some of the data from the study linked by Gavin Schmidt,

Science / Re: Global warming slowdown 'could last another decade'
« on: October 06, 2014, 01:04:01 AM »
A really BFD, you beat me to it.   Gavin Schmidt seems to agree.

"@ClimateOfGavin: @SJvatn ...but since it changes estimates of the recent ocean heat uptake, it pushes estimates of sensitivity higher. Esp. for L&C."

Science / Re: The Pausers
« on: October 06, 2014, 01:02:11 AM »
New paper today, ocean heat content in Southern Ocean significantly underestimated.

Someone please convince me that this isn't the most important paper published so far this year.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: September 19, 2014, 03:03:47 AM »
Some calculations to consider:

NOAA now has a year to data temp anomaly of .68 beating .66 for 2010 and .65 for 2005.
JMA now has a year to date temp anomaly of .24 beating .22 of 1998 and .20 of 2013! (I averaged the monthly data myself for 2014)

I would say there is a 70-90% chance that both data sets set a record for 2014 even without an El Nino. 

Science / Re: Global warming slowdown 'could last another decade'
« on: September 01, 2014, 07:40:36 PM »
Here are the figures from Nature on the 2nd paper mentioned in the news release by Laurent.  This was just published yesterday and is a really fascinating way to look at natural variation vs GHG forcing.

Science / Re: Global warming slowdown 'could last another decade'
« on: August 31, 2014, 02:48:51 AM »
I posted this on Robert Scribbler's blog.  I can’t read the paper (link below to Wiley paywall), but I was able to access some of the key figures from the paper. The paper suggests that hiatus periods very unlikely after 2030, even with volcanoes the size/influence of pinatubo.  This, no surprise, due to overwhelming GHG forcing. This is assuming an RCP 8.5 emissions pathway.

Either way I have been getting the impression that “hiatus periods” after 2020 are very unlikely considering that we still have surface warming in the current “hiatus”.  If anyone has access to this paper, I think it would be a great contribution to this discussion if you could share your assessments of it.  Thanks in advance.  Here is the information below.

Drivers of decadal hiatus periods in the 20th and 21st centuries
Nicola Maher, Alexander Sen Gupta and Matthew H. England
Article first published online: 20 AUG 2014 | DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060527

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 15, 2014, 01:27:22 AM »
I got this diagram from a Rahmstorf tweet today.  It comes from the most recent paper Coumou et al 2014. If ever there was an immediate consequence of surface warming, this would be it!

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: August 14, 2014, 11:53:21 AM »
JMA numbers are out.  This year is certainly going to be the warmest ENSO neutral year on record as any El Niño at this point will be influencing 2015.

1st. 1998(+0.30°C), 2nd. 2014(+0.28°C), 3rd. 2010,2005(+0.24°C), 5th. 2013(+0.23°C)

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 21, 2014, 05:04:52 PM »
NOAA June temps hottest on record at .72 beating June 2010 at .69. This is from the "climate at a glance" page on NOAAs website.  The reg global June press release isn't out yet.

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 14, 2014, 11:46:10 AM »
JMA has June as the warmest on record by a decent margin.

From their site:  1st. 2014(+0.32°C), 2nd. 2010(+0.26°C), 3rd. 1998(+0.25°C), 4th. 2012(+0.22°C), 5th. 2009,2005(+0.21°C)

Can anyone explain how JMA measures surface temperature?  Is there overlap with NOAA?

Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: July 12, 2014, 10:12:43 PM »
Question, have we hit bottom finally for the Niño region 3.4 as shown by the model below?  What do these model projections take into account to suggest that conditions are now going to build into an El Niño?

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: July 12, 2014, 05:02:30 AM »
NASA June 2014 surface temps at .64, 2nd hottest June behind 1998 .75.  June 2005 was third at .63.  We will need Oct to Dec to go +.70 to have 2014 as the warmest.

Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: June 19, 2014, 09:49:36 PM »
Is this still an "error" for the 2nd day running or is this for real?

Consequences / Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« on: June 17, 2014, 08:30:43 PM »
NASA .76 hottest May on record beating .70 from 2010 and 2012. 2014 is now tied with 2010 as the hottest year on record needing just .68 anomalies from here on out to be the warmest on record. The “pause” will soon be behind us.

Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: June 16, 2014, 03:47:14 AM »
Gray-Wolf,  From 2007 to present it seems SOI is much more likely to be positive than negative.   I think your right about trade winds and the general negative PDO conditions that have dominated for so long.  They seem to (I have no idea the mechanism) make it harder for El Nino's to form or maybe just reduce their intensity or both.  The 2013 paper from Kosaka and Xie does a great job explaining just how strongly ENSO has been influencing global temperatures over the recent surface temp slowdown in warming.  It seems that reducing the intensity of El Ninos would fit that pattern as well.  Forgive me for saying this but Roy Spencer may be right.  He has made comments as early as 2 months ago that this El Nino is not likely to be strong against a background of negative PDO conditions similar to what happened in 2009/2010.

All of this brings up a bigger question.  When will temps rise significantly higher despite ENSO having such a cooling influence?  It seems somewhat obvious that a switch to positive PDO would result in a large step increase but even these current conditions can't hide/mask the AGW CO2 signal much longer.  I don't think this El Nino (none of the media consulted scientists seem to be changing their tune) will fizzle but if it ends up being mild .9 to 1.2 I can still see a record breaking year in 2014 or 2015. 

Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: June 08, 2014, 03:06:16 AM »
AbruptSLR, can you think of anything unique in spring 2014 that would delay the atmospheric component of El Niño  (SOI) from kicking in.  Is this normal?

Consequences / Re: 2014 El Nino?
« on: May 08, 2014, 04:52:45 AM »
If anyone is wondering how surface temps will lag the influence of an El Nino, check out Table 1 from Foster and Rahmstorf 2011 (link below).  It shows the optimal lag time for all 5 temperature Data sets in response to MEI.  Nasa  4 months, NOAA 2 months, HADCRU 3 months and RSS & UAH 5 months.  This is based on MEI (related to El Nino).  I confess that I don't really understand how that relates to El Nino and PDO values.  If someone would like to explain MEI, please do.  By the way this paper is worth reading a 2nd or 3rd time.  It is truly remarkable for a general understanding of AGW.

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