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Messages - Comradez

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Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 23, 2020, 06:48:47 PM »
11/22/2020 NH snow extent anomaly according to Cryosphere Computing:  +1.236 million km^2. 

Quite a burst of snowfall in Eurasia!

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 21, 2020, 11:49:31 PM »
For the first time in a while this year, total Northern Hemisphere snow extent is going significantly above average.  According to Cryosphere Computing, for 11/20/20 it is +0.510 million km^2.

Total combined northern hemisphere snow + ice extent is still barely below average, but most of that below-average ice extent is in the Kara Sea where the sun isn't shining anyways, so now finally the winter snow is getting some positive albedo feedback to deepen cold temperatures and snow extent further.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 19, 2020, 09:28:45 PM »
For the record, total Northern Hemisphere snow extent is still below average.  According to Cryosphere Computing, for 11/18/20 it is -0.582 million km^2. 

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 16, 2020, 04:58:16 PM »
11/15/2020 NH snow extent anomaly according to Cryosphere Computing:  -1.592 million km^2.

European Russia FINALLY getting some snow, but some retreat in east Asia and North America. 

Kids decades from now (or even right now) are going to read about the Kronstadt rebellion during the Russian Civil War, and scratch their heads over how the Red Army was able to send cavalry over the frozen ice in March from Petrograd to the Kronstadt naval base, unless it is explicitly explained to them that the climate used to be different.  Or likewise, they are going to be scratching their heads over why Operation Typhoon in November of 1941 was so difficult meteorologically for the German Wehrmacht. 

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 13, 2020, 04:24:09 PM »
11/12/2020 NH snow extent anomaly according to Cryosphere Computing:  -2.191 million km^2. 

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 12, 2020, 07:15:43 PM »
Some decent snowfalls in the upper Midwestern U.S. and around the Ural region of Russia, but NH snow extent anomaly still (11/11/2020) -1.842 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 09, 2020, 10:42:32 PM »
NH Snow extent anomaly now (11/8/2020) -3.184 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 08, 2020, 05:33:38 PM »
NH Snow extent anomaly now (11/7/2020) -2.987 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing. 

Weather is not the same as climate, but if re-glaciation in the northern hemisphere is indeed going to happen as per bbr's predictions (doubtful, in my opinion), it looks like it won't be a straight trend without notable reverses or exceptions...

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 07, 2020, 04:50:45 PM »
A little bit of a dip today back to "only" a -2.1 million km^2 anomaly for NH snow cover extent.

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 06, 2020, 04:37:05 PM »
NH Snow extent anomaly now (11/5/2020) -2.392 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing.  It's a bit surprising considering all the open water in the Arctic seas, but it's just too warm in North America and Eastern Europe / Western Siberia for precipitation to fall as snow quite yet. 

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2020-2021 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: November 04, 2020, 06:02:52 PM »
Snow extent is crashing, and a continued warm week ahead is forecasted for North America and Eastern Europe/Western Siberia.  NH Snow extent anomaly is already -1.8 million km^2 according to Cryosphere Computing, and bound to crash further.  That's some additional albedo feedback right there that should postpone the onset of deep winter cold for much of the arctic. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 15, 2020, 07:24:37 PM »
Thank you Aslan!  That is a very revealing graphic, and something worth keeping an eye on during the winter season.  It shows that the important thing, when judging whether open ocean in the winter is a positive or negative feedback, is the heat vented to space from the top of the atmospheric column, not the heat vented from the surface to slightly above the surface.  If the layer slightly above the surface is almost as opaque to IR as sea ice is, then that near-surface atmospheric layer basically functions like replacement sea ice—except it is "sea ice" that also lets the water column below it mix up warmer, saltier water to the surface, so double no-bueno there. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020/2021 freezing season
« on: October 10, 2020, 05:48:12 PM »
Interesting figures, S.Pansa!  Is there a particular reason why, in Figure 6-5, the incoming and outgoing radiation don't seem to net to zero globally?  (Just eyeballing it, it looks like there's no way the areas under the curves match).

Consequences / Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« on: September 16, 2020, 07:40:53 PM »
Hey, so apparently there is a tropical cyclone in the Mediterranean right now.  Could possibly reach hurricane strength before slamming into Greece.  Named Udine / Ianos

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2020/21 Freezing Season Predictions
« on: September 15, 2020, 08:52:39 PM »
Will we see a full freeze-up of the Kara sea this winter?  I remember last year I was doubtful that we would see much of any freeze-up in the Bering Sea because 2019 saw an extremely early melt-out of the Bering and Chukchi...but then the Bering Sea froze right up and attained a fairly large extent in the spring of 2020.  So I guess the Kara will freeze-up like normal this year too, odds are.  But perhaps the "bight" of open water that usually reaches from the Barents Sea to the north of the Kara Sea will be especially pronounced next spring...and perhaps the Barents Sea will not witness much of an ice advance past Franz Josef Land and Spitsbergen this winter....

The Laptev Sea will freeze up for sure.  There's too much soon-to-be cold land surrounding it. 

If we ever get a real "Blue Ocean Event" one of these summers in the near future, we will probably see a "donut" of ice in the subsequent fall all around the landmasses ranging from north of Greenland, to north of the CAA, to the Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, and Laptev, but with the CAB actually mostly open water or extremely slushy ice that never truly freezes into a solid pack that next winter, and probably the Kara too.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: August 19, 2020, 02:21:46 PM »
Yeah, that's some brisk warm wind about to scream across the Chukchi Sea. 

It is interesting how, in the month of August, the Laptev and Atlantic fronts have only fallen back a little bit, whereas the Chukchi and Beaufort have just gotten thrashed. 

Looks like some fresh snow fell on Axel Heiberg Island in the CAA on August 3rd.  It's early enough that it may re-melt again before the freeze season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 31, 2020, 04:35:18 PM »
The ice in the Chukchi and Beaufort is now pre-conditioned to the same sort of honeycomb-like status that it was in by the start of August in 2012.  Now a second mega-cyclone in mid-August is all that would be needed to deliver the finishing blow to the ice there. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 21, 2020, 04:18:14 PM »
I wouldn't be so confident as some posters here that the seemingly solid pack in the CAB will hold up well this coming month.  Take a look at what one seemingly solid stretch of the pack along the Laptev front from July 16th to today (click to animate).  Note that:
1.  This was without a Great Arctic Cyclone.
2.  This is not mere dispersion.  The extent front has been marching southwards the whole time.  It's just that the ice in the middle is disintegrating faster than the extent front can catch up to it to re-compactify. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 10:18:27 PM »
Wow, if that 965 mb low verifies (or even if it is sub-980), the CAB is about to get the "washing machine" treatment (intense southerly winds followed by intense northerly winds). 

And looking at the gif I posted above showing part of the Laptev from July 14-17, it seems like something like the "washing machine" effect is what torched the ice there so badly.  You can see the rubble drifting one way for the first couple of days, and then an abrupt shift and the silky strands of rubble getting swirled into a turbulent mess. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 08:09:37 PM »
Yeah, I'm gonna take a hard pass on November melt as least, on balance.  I suppose with enough open arctic ocean and wave action the CAB could stay stagnant in extent into November (although I would still expect the areas with ice in the CAB to harden up and solidify in terms of area/concentration).  But sheltered bays are still going to be locus-points of refreeze along the least, until there is so much accumulated heat in the CAB and peripheral seas from multiple blue-ocean-events in a row that the air temperatures remain around freezing into the winter for coastal Siberia. 

I think increasingly as we get closer to a BOE, we are going to see the refreeze proceed from the coasts inwards towards the North Pole. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 17, 2020, 07:54:03 PM »
If you want a preview of the coming week for that gray slush ice in the East Siberian Sea, check out what happened to similarly-looking remnant ice in the Laptev the last couple of days.  (Click to animate gif).

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 16, 2020, 02:49:08 PM », if this verifies, the poor Laptev is toast. 

Don't worry:  at the surface this will "only" translate into balmy 1.5C air blowing in at 36 km/hr.

Belkovsky, Kotelny, oooh I wanna take me
To Stolbovoy, Zhokhova, come on pretty mama
The Kolyma, The Lena, hey, why don't we float on down to
Laptev shoals
It's melting fast so we can take it slow
That's where we wanna go
Way up near Laptev shoals

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 13, 2020, 11:20:07 PM »
The more the high pressure center drifts towards the ESS, bakes the already-fragile ice there with clear skies, and pulls balmy air off Siberia and over the warming Laptev towards the weak flank of the CAB, the worse it is going to be for the ice.  What are SSTs going to be in the Laptev by mid-August at this rate? 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 11:18:54 PM »
60,000 cubic meters of ice would be a slab 1m thick x 0.1km wide x 0.6km long.  Barely big enough to show up as multiple pixels on worldview. 

How much extent would this circled section be?

Arctic sea ice / Re: HYCOM
« on: July 11, 2020, 04:56:39 PM »
The two look surprisingly similar!  Shouldn't this increase our confidence in HYCOM? 

If so, I think I like HYCOM a little more just because it has such higher resolution. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 11, 2020, 04:13:51 PM »
Wow, GFS, ECMWF, and Nullschool all agree on the Great Arctic Anti-Cyclone (GAAC) sticking around for at least another week, albeit weakening somewhat.  In addition, the backside of the GAAC in the Chukchi and ESS is slated to have cooler air aloft (850 mb at -5C) and chilly temperatures at the surface (as low as -0.5C), so there may be some surface refreezing there.  But it is also slated to have very strong winds, so it may not be great for the slushy ice there anyways, sitting adjacent to some 2C water and with upwelling likely from the choppy seas. 

And then on the front side (Laptev/Kara front), the warm air aloft (5C) and surface temps (1C) are going to be replenished from a warm air mass coming off of the Taymyr Peninsula.  There will also be very strong winds here.  We may actually see the Atlantic ice front really crumble beyond the continental shelf line in a big way for the first time in recorded history this summer, if this consistent southerly fetch from the GAAC keeps up. 

Also, the Beaufort is slated to have cool air aloft (as the cool backside of the GAAC develops towards the Chukchi), but then followed a few days later by gentle warm southerly winds coming off the Mackenzie Delta and clear skies. 

The CAA looks like it will have good conditions for melting throughout.  The recent slowdown in area drops probably has to do with melt ponds draining here.  The ice in a lot of the channels is transitioning to a very thin grayish appearance (Tanquary fiord on Ellesmere Island is a good example of this).  Once that benchmark is reached, expect full melt-out 2-3 weeks later. 

And finally, Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay are doing their usual thing.  Not late or early, and looking quite irrelevant to the melt in the rest of the arctic.  Ice will be gone in these spots by Aug. 1st.  Expect that to factor into some big area & extent drops. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 09, 2020, 01:03:32 AM »
Today there is a nice clear view of Ellesmere Island around Lake Hazen, which will probably be ice free in a day or two.  I thought to compare it with the year 2000 for curiosity's sake (as far back as worldview images go).  The closest cloud-free day I could find in the year 2000 was July 27th (19 days later).  Check it out,-970911.7625952777,-64222.22613820154,-634527.7625952777&p=arctic&t=2000-07-27-T14%3A00%3A00Z&t1=2020-07-08-T16%3A00%3A00Z&l1=Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_NOAA20_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor&ca=true&cv=47

I noticed right off the bat that the glaciers on northern Ellesmere and especially NW Greenland have shrunk considerably and also darkened.  And keep in mind that this is 19 days later in the year in the year 2000. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: Albedo-Warming Potential
« on: July 08, 2020, 04:38:20 PM »
Keep in mind what "albedo warming potential" means, with emphasis on *potential.*

It means, assuming cloud-free skies. 

So, for example, if an earlier year might have had 27% CAB AWP, you'd need to still check what the actual cloud-cover was like for that year to see how much of that albedo warming potential translated into albedo warming actuality (AWA).  It could be the case that the CAB was almost totally cloud-covered during that time, in which case the AWP of 27% might translate into a AWA of near 0%. 

By contrast, let's say in 2020 the CAB AWP is 20%.  If cloud cover over the CAB is only on average, say, only 10% (because of a mega high pressure system), then the AWA would be more like 18%. 

I don't known what the actual numbers would be, but I hope this clears up some confusion about why people are so impressed by the mega high pressure system right now over the CAB, and why actual albedo warming (AWA) is likely to be much higher this year than past years even though past years might have had slightly higher AWP. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 07, 2020, 08:22:05 PM »
For what it's worth, I do notice on the nullschool runs today that the 850 mb temps are also slated to cool somewhat towards the end of this week (although still slated to be about 4C over the CAB on average, which is still bad enough to melt a lot of ice when combined with direct insolation).  It's possible the warm air aloft needs to be replenished by more hot rising air coming off the continents if the 850 mb layer wants to stay as warm as it has been. 

If the 850 mb temps are slated to drop from almost 10C to 4C, then it would only make sense for surface temps to drop from about 2C to just slightly above 0C.  There will still be melting...just not at as furious of a pace as it has been the past couple of days. 

So yes, I think the minor fluctuations in surface temp are meaningful, but probably not as meaningful as the 850 mb temps or the insolation. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 02, 2020, 02:08:20 AM »
At least temperature-wise, it looks like the CAB is slated to get a bit cooler once the big high pressure sets up.  The forecast is for the flow to be almost universally from the CAB outwards onto the landmasses.  This big high will certainly be a test of whether warm air advection from surrounding landmasses or direct insolation near the summer solstice is more effective at melting ice. 

Edit:  Interestingly, if you look at the current conditions on nullschool at the 850 mb level, 84.61 N, 122.28 E (roughly right in between Severnaya Zemlya and the North Pole) currently has 13.7 C with 55 km/h winds.  That's gotta be having an effect, no?  (The surface is 1.2 C with 31 km/h winds).  Interestingly, the 700 mb level there is still 2.0 C.  That's quite a pool of warm air aloft!)

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 02, 2020, 12:00:50 AM »
I've never seen a pattern as zonal as the ECM forecast.  It's almost like the northern hemisphere gets stratified into a textbook pattern of three atmospheric cells:  easterly winds in the tropics, a huge circumglobal subtropical high, mid-latitude westerlies, an unbroken string of low pressure systems in the high-mid-latitudes, and then westerlies again around the huge polar high. 

I don't know whether such a zonal pattern is good for the ice, but I just thought it was interesting. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: July 01, 2020, 01:08:55 AM »
How is northern Siberia hotter than Turkmenistan?  Crazy.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 30, 2020, 02:55:16 AM »
That's insane.

And in the next several days, the fast ice around Severnaya Zemlya is about to get blasted by warm air advection from the continent. 

And then 5-10 days out, the GFS has a fatality move in store for the Chukchi.

Permafrost / Re: Zombie Fires
« on: June 24, 2020, 10:05:03 PM »
There sure are tons of fires in Siberia on today's worldview. 

That's an interesting diagram, oren!  The one thing that isn't intuitive for me, though, is why the initial longwave energy emitted from the surface is 110 units.  Where does that come from?  Why wouldn't it be 50 units + whatever fraction of the 17 and 3 in the troposphere and stratosphere (respectively) that get re-radiated down to the surface?  Also, what do SH and LE stand for under "non-radiative"? 

Also, the blackbody spectrum posted by oren in post #3254 shows that The Walrus might have more of a point if we were talking about H20 having an ambiguous relationship with peak summer daytime temperatures since H20 absorbs a lot of radiation in the near-infrared (900 nm) range, as well as in the 1150 nm range, which will comprise more of the total first-pass radiative forcing coming from the sun compared to, say, the tail-end stuff CO2 blocks at 2000 nm.  And yes, while some of that can be re-radiated down to the surface, it will be some fraction of what would have reached the surface on the first-pass if H20 hadn't been there to absorb it.  Someone would still need to do the math to compare what's lost from this vs. how much is absorbed and re-radiated from H2O to the surface from the greenhouse effect. 

But in any case, it seems clear to me from that diagram that CO2 is blocking very little first-pass solar radiation from getting to the surface, and probably more than making up for that by what it re-radiates.  So even if we are talking about peak daytime temperatures north of the Arctic circle around the summer soltice, it seems like CO2 only heightens those temperatures.

The rest / Re: The off topic off topic thread
« on: June 19, 2020, 02:44:57 AM »
True, if one is doing greenhouse farming, then it would make sense to stay near the central hub all year long. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 18, 2020, 04:38:38 AM »
The upcoming storm may be getting ready to block insolation over the CAB, but look at that ridge and southerly flow poking up into northern Canada!  We are about to discover how fast snowcover can melt. 

2020 already has a lead over other years on the Russian side.  If it can catch up in the CAA with this week's weather pattern, all it needs then is to catch up in the Beaufort in order to be a contender.  Even if the CAB does not get much direct insolation up ahead, if the peripheral seas are weakened, that might be another route of attack on the ice. 

Consequences / Re: World of 2100
« on: June 17, 2020, 09:53:42 PM »
Thanks for the feedback Tom!  Yeah, soil would probably be the limiting factor, and soil formation by natural processes takes 200 years for 1 cm of soil...and that's after the active layer warms up and gets more roots growing in it.  So I guess I'd have to lean towards somewhere on Banks Island where the land appears to be a little less eroded.  It's a pity there are no good ports on Banks Island.  Even Sachs Harbour doesn't have a dock—shipping barges are the only vessels that can bring goods onto shore.  And there really aren't any natural harbors anywhere along the rest of the island.

Consequences / Re: World of 2100
« on: June 17, 2020, 08:34:31 PM »
I have been thinking of writing a novel based around the year 2100 that takes place in a prison colony in the Canadian arctic after a political upheaval of some sort in North America.  This would take place in a scenario of climate change that has not been mitigated by any coordinated policy response (i.e. business as usual). 

I'm trying to decide where the prison colony would logically be situated.  The main requirement for story purposes is that it would need to be somewhere in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, i.e. off of the North American mainland. 

The general idea is that the prison colony would have a central hub with guards' quarters, a port, power plant, district heating, dorms, and other central facilities in which the inmates would stay for the winter season, but there would also be scattered homesteads for each inmate in the surrounding countryside on which they might be allowed to go off and more or less do their own thing during the warm season.  Therefore, I'm looking for a spot that would have the potential for:
1. Port facilities.
2. River.
3. Southerly enough to have potential for making transition from tundra to taiga climate by 2100, and possibly supporting some farming.

I've picked out two possible settings for the fictional prison colony in which my characters would be set:

1.  On Victoria Island, with the port just north of Edinburgh Island (there appears to be deep water right up to the sheltered coastline at 68.558 N, 110.933 W).  Homesteads would be spread out northwards along the Nakyoktok River that flows into Johansen Bay.  See:

Pros:  Somewhat sheltered from the ocean.  Might eventually have warm-ish summers if the sea ice in nearby Coronation Gulf were to start melting significantly earlier, such as by late May. 
Cons:  Hilly terrain.  Very poor (almost non-existent) soil.  Figure8blog described the neraby coastline as, "low and dreary, reddish dirt with as much differentiation mile after mile as that between infield and pitchers mound. Up close, the hills look neatly swept clean of life. Nothing sticks up higher than a medium sized rock. I think somewhere a giant groundsman is dragging his chain link fence across the land, readying the entire Arctic for the words, “Play ball!”"
How much different would this be in the year 2100 even with climate change?
Note:  Currently land with Inuit claims, but I'm assuming some sort of political upheaval infringes on this.  This imperialism itself would factor into the plot of the story. 

2.  On Banks Island, near the Kellett River, just north of Sachs Harbour. 

Pros:  Flatter, slightly better soil (less eroded).  Also, a nearby harbor and community already exists (albeit not a very deep one).
Cons:  Less sheltered from the ocean.  Summers would probably remain cooler, even if the Beaufort were to melt much earlier in the season.  Also, the existing residents of Sachs Harbour would probably have something to say about a prison colony being set up not far from them.  Could be an interesting plot point.
Note:  Currently bird sanctuary land, but I'm assuming some sort of political upheaval infringes on this.  This imperialism itself would factor into the plot of the story.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2020 melting season
« on: June 13, 2020, 07:28:15 PM »
I've noticed that there is very little fast ice in the East Siberian Sea this year, and what fast ice there is is already breaking up.  How much will this matter for the eventual September sea ice minimum?  How much heat can make its way from the ESS and influence the Central Arctic Basin?

March 8th, 2020 NH snow and ice extent anomalies:
Ice:  -387,800 km^2
Snow:  -2,707,626 km^2
Total:  -3,095,426 km^2

The weird thing is, NH snowcover in 2012 on this date was still waaaay above normal.  (And sea ice extent was not markedly different).  So I'm not sure how much this data series really matters at this point for predicting eventual September ice extent.  But the lower albedo in the NH in 2020 has got to be having an effect by now.  According to CCI Reanalyzer's 10-day forecast, the above-average warmth will continue along the snow retreat lines in the Eastern U.S. and in Europe and East Asia for the next 10 days, with average 24-hour temperatures being above freezing.  The Western U.S. may get some snowfall, but regardless we will likely be looking at a significant snow extent deficit heading into the spring equinox. 

March 7th, 2020 NH snow and ice extent anomalies:
Ice:  -381,036 km^2
Snow:  -2,927,178 km^2
Total:  -3,308,214 km^2

This spring is definitely going to be a test of whether Warm Arctic/Cold Continents (more like 2019) or Cold Arctic/Warm Continents (this spring of 2020 so far) is eventually more damaging to the summer sea ice. 

March 5th, 2020 NH snow and ice extent anomalies:
Ice:  -247,586 km^2
Snow:  -2,852,769 km^2
Total:  -3,100,355 km^2

March 3rd, 2020 NH snow and ice extent anomalies:
Ice:  -233,268 km^2
Snow:  -2,734,452 km^2
Total:  -2,967,720 km^2

More warm weather in North America and Eurasia on the way...

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 26, 2020, 09:19:58 PM »
Latest from Cryosphere Computing as of Feb. 25th:

Sea ice extent anomaly:  -331,629 km^2
Land snow extent anomaly:  -3,407,589 km^2
Combined:  -3,739,218 km^2

Permafrost / Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
« on: February 24, 2020, 06:38:52 PM »
Wow, Northern hemisphere snow cover has gotta be approaching 2 standard deviations below normal now.  The albedo difference will now be having a signficant impact. 

Cryosphere Computing now has the northern hemisphere ice extent anomaly at -203,735 km^2 and the snow extent anomaly at -2,673,110 km^2...or a combined anomaly of -2,876,845 km^2.  This will be an interesting number to track this upcoming melting season.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 24, 2019, 02:30:13 AM »
Just think:  someday in our lifetimes we will be having polls about how many ice-free days there will be in the arctic each year. 

Arctic sea ice / Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: September 08, 2019, 05:59:38 PM »
It just occurred to me today that, while this stall in sea ice area and extent declines that we have seen in August and early September 2019 may be frustrating for those of us who predicted a lower minimum this year, this year's melt chronology and the sort of shallow, saucer-shaped trajectory of sea ice area and extent is sort of "ideal" from the standpoint of encouraging heat accumulation in the arctic.  The peripheral seas opened up very early and started soaking up the sun not long after the summer solstice, resulting in sky-high accumulated albedo warming potential for this season, but the CAB has been resistant to melting.  Consequently, not as much heat will be lost from the CAB now that the sun is setting.

By contrast, a pattern of melt that would not favor heat accumulation would be where declines in June, Juy, and early August are sluggish, but where the arctic witnesses a sudden spurt of melting in late August and early September from bottom-melt and wind-driven processes, after the sun has already become ineffective. 

2012 was more of the second type of melt chronology, and I bet the GAC ended up venting a lot of heat from the ocean...perhaps accounting for the rebound of ice coverage in 2013.  I would not expect a similar sort of rebound this time around in 2020.  Quite the opposite, in fact.  Next year will have even more melting momentum.  I anticipate the Bering and Chukchi seas will be especially fragile and prone to melting unprecedentedly early.  I question how far south the ice will even get in the Bering Sea this winter...

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