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Messages - etienne

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1
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 20, 2019, 07:50:02 PM »
I am JAXA addicted, so I usually cannot go to bed without looking the new data.
I understand now how it is possible that we have these datas so early in the morning.  Thanks a lot, in this season, I enjoy it almost everyday.

2
 LOL, I never saw it that way, but there are many ways to apply this paradox, for example with administrative reporting.

3
Well, what is the relation between music quality, Eurovision and Jevons ? I really don't get it. Eurovision has always been a type of music that was hearable by a large spectrum of people, which means without too much originality. Of course there has been great exceptions.

4
Well if you compare France Gall in 1965, ABBA in 1974 and what we saw yesterday, technology is now much more efficient, but general kWh consumed must now be much higher, even with LED lights and low consumption flat screens , better cameras and better planes to transport people.

5
Same thing here. My son stayed up until the end. But the technology was impressive.

6
Just look on youtube the winners in the 60's, 70's, ... and yesterday.

7
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 19, 2019, 07:34:03 AM »
Extinction rebelion is not about changing the political system, but about taking better decisions, making pressure without violence, so there is nothing I can say against them. In politics, the aim is the path. Everybody wants a better world, what you vote for is how to get there.

8
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 19, 2019, 07:28:43 AM »

There was I, getting ready to make some Molotov cocktails, and thinks "damn, that means supporting the fossil fuel industry".

It's a tough life being a rebellious environmentalist.
LOL this is why I believe that you can't be against growth and violent.

This debate is not new on the forum, just more aggressive. We always discussed green BAU with Bob Wallace. I'm sure he does a good job in fighting climate change even if I don't agree with all what he said.
Fighting climate change is very complicated because some non popular decisions have to be made, but we need democracy because leaders need to be controlled.

9
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 18, 2019, 03:30:43 PM »
There is a joke that says that in Politics, you have stairs in the middle, and elevators on the extremes . Fortunately, elevators are most of the time out of order.

I am a little bit afraid that the elevators seems to be repaired right now.

Extinction Rebellion is a non violent movement that has democratic roots, so I would put it in the middle. They do a hard job to achieve something.

Of course they get support from rich people, because being poor is not a requirement to fight climate change. Of course the solution requires technologies, I don’t want to go back to middle age. Working more is difficult, but working faster when you have the technology and the energy is very easy. So we have to find a way that makes it possible to keep the technology but to reduce its use to what is required.It’s a hard way because it means producing only what’s needed, but there is no objective definition of the needs, just a more or less objective definition of what is available, so we have to find a fair way to share what is available and say that these are our needs.

The good news is that few people consume much more that the average, and that bringing them to the average would help a lot. The bad news is that revolutions have mostly been about changing who has the power, not about sharing it.

10
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 18, 2019, 09:33:42 AM »
 We used to say about fair trade products that if you want to be sure where the money goes, buy corporate. Growth and climat protection is impossible, just check the historical energy data to know where we are coming from. https://sites.fas.harvard.edu/~histecon/energyhistory/energydata_beta.html but I think that we need everybody available so that people could be convinced that something has to happen.

11
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 18, 2019, 07:47:24 AM »
What you describe matches very well what te Luxemburgish government does, it is why they are very annoyed that the protests don't stop.

12
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 17, 2019, 10:53:29 PM »
I don't feel that Extinction Rebelion or Greta Thunberg aim to make money out of nature. I believe that people saying that are somehow trying to stop something that might be our last hope for some change. It is not without reason that the Luxembourgish Government didn’t vote for the climate emergency even with a green party in the coalition. They know how to make money.

Non violence is a way to act where the police doesn’t know what to do. UK has more experience with that than others. Gandhi was also a British Citizen.

13
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: May 17, 2019, 03:32:50 PM »
Luxembourgish parlament refused to declare Climate Emergency, 31 no, 25 absention and 4 yes. I guess that the 31 that refused didn't want a motion that was just a statement and would have hoped for something more efficient.

14
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: May 16, 2019, 05:59:51 AM »
I don't believe that one side is more trustworthy than the other. Saudi Arabia really wants prices up, and it is always nice for a non democratic government (Venezuela, Iran, Saudi Arabia...) to say that problems are due to somebody else, which might even be true, but control is impossible excepted like the US controlled mass destruction arms in Irak, which I hope won't happen again.

15
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: May 13, 2019, 06:57:11 PM »
Nice garden, UQ! Looks like plenty of space all around and no agriculture.  :)

Early fava (broad,field) beans are doing really well but so are the ants farming blackfly. I spray with a mixture of soap, neem and teatree to slow them down. Any suggestions?

We have the same problem over here in Austria as well. My wife has tried spraying neem etc as well, but now she removes the blackfly manually, asap.
I found margold under the appletree helpful in this context, but not during the spring, only once the flowers are open.

16
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: May 12, 2019, 07:19:48 PM »
I can't imagine that this could be an issue with solar because nights are long enough to transport daily production, but for a wind farm, i could imagine that cables might make it 90% of the time, but that moving loaded batteries could make sense. Maybe flow batteries where just the liquid is moved would make sense.

17
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: May 10, 2019, 09:44:52 PM »
I never had problems with early plants like spinach and peas, exepted for the birds eating everything, but netting is here an easy solution. I also put the potatoes as early as possible because of the mildew. My problems start with the slugs. I hope this will stay that way in the future.
I tried garlic this year and it is working very well, I have been giving fresh garlic to all the neighbours. It has a stronger taste than expected. Leeks seem to be ok. The main problem right now is that plants are ready to go out, but we are not yet out of the freezing time.

18
Walking the walk / Re: Pat yourself on the back
« on: May 04, 2019, 07:19:50 PM »
Well I've been only by bicycle to work for two weeks now. It's really nice, but my body hurts everywhere. Transition is not so easy, good that there are week-ends to get some rest. I know times will make everything better, but improvement time is longer than expected. I only drive around 12 km per day.

19
Arctic sea ice / Re: Global sea ice area and extent data
« on: May 03, 2019, 08:56:46 PM »
Just for fun from jaxa, arctic only, data of May 2nd
years    average value    diminution   %           min value    difference   %
1980s13.9312.88-1.057.54%
1990s13.440.493.52%13.02-0.423.13%
2000s13.060.382.83%12.79-0.272.07%
2010s12.670.392.99%12.16-0.514.03%

20
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: May 03, 2019, 07:07:32 AM »
U.S.:  An electric utility in Vermont is launching a new trial program with the goal to “make traditional meters obsolete” by using Tesla Powerwalls to track energy usage on top of the many other benefits of Tesla’s home energy battery pack.
https://electrek.co/2019/04/30/tesla-powerwall-replace-meter-electric-utility/
This really is a great concept that gives a lot of flexibility to the utility company to manage peaks and lows in electricity demand. I believe that this configuration might become normal in a few years.
The interesting thing in this configuration is that the battery is on the external and internal grid. The utiluty company can load or unload it when needed, but the home owner can also do the same, capacity of the battery being the limit.

21
Policy and solutions / Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« on: April 30, 2019, 09:11:46 PM »
U.S.:  An electric utility in Vermont is launching a new trial program with the goal to “make traditional meters obsolete” by using Tesla Powerwalls to track energy usage on top of the many other benefits of Tesla’s home energy battery pack.
https://electrek.co/2019/04/30/tesla-powerwall-replace-meter-electric-utility/
This really is a great concept that gives a lot of flexibility to the utility company to manage peaks and lows in electricity demand. I believe that this configuration might become normal in a few years.

22
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: April 30, 2019, 06:54:20 PM »
You're right, that's the rught insect. So it is not so bad.

23
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: April 30, 2019, 07:05:24 AM »
The insects are about 15 mm, so it is something else. But I saw one that was around the 3mm. We'll see.

24
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: April 29, 2019, 09:11:43 PM »
Well I hope not. I was a little late with the netting, I was mainly scared by the leek moth that comes in May. I have already found the specific black "eggs" in leeks last year. Etienne

25
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: April 29, 2019, 08:24:15 PM »
Quote
I live in an apartment style condo with an open air parking garage with an assigned slot for my car...no power outlet there. When would one be likely to be installed?
Maybe when you pressure condo management?
Technically it could be this year. Realistically it could be in the next 5 years. Less than that for a corporate parking lot. On-street parking could take much longer.

We are having a picnic for the 24 units sometime in June. Maybe I can campaign among the residents to electrify the carport.

This is a little bit out of topic, but the problem of residential loading is that you need to install the infrastructure for each EV because parking place are private and you can't move your car when you want to load it. On the other hand, you don't want to move your car in the middle of the night when your neighbour has his car loaded to that you can load yours.

There are two ways to do it, you can install a single electrical distribution and put a counter on each loading station, or you can have a cable coming from each private electrical distribution to the carport. The first solution has the advantage that you can do some load balancing, which means faster loading when fewer cars are connected, and reduced to no loading when there is a high power requirement in the building. The second solution has the advantage that costs can be carried by each interested person, but if everybody loads at its maximum power, you'll probably have the main breaker that will stop it completely. A mix of both doesn't make sense because load balancing requires a level of technology that includes the counters.


26
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: April 29, 2019, 07:11:57 PM »
I just placed some net on the leeks to protect them against the leek moth, and, insects are coming out of the earth.

Don't know what it is, but I opened the net to let them out.

27
Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: April 25, 2019, 06:46:14 PM »
I already heard of that problem. I would say : don't worry, Trump will still be president and would not allow that to happen. Well, I even believe that any president would take extreme measures in case of extreme event. I don't see this as our major problem. I am more worried about depletion and discoveries of conventional oil, and of climate change which is even worse.

28
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: April 24, 2019, 06:06:32 PM »
According to NSIDC both Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice extent are at record low levels today.
I wonder how long it is since this last occurred

On vishop https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
on the right side, there is a possibility to check global values. There it is easy to see when the summ of both is at the lowest.Nov 2016 to Oct. 2017 had most of the time the lowest summ, 2018 was often close to that value. But your question is about both separately at the lowest. Daily data for Arctic can be downloaded lower on the page of the link, but I didn't search yet for Antartic data.

29
Walking the walk / Re: When was the last flight you took?
« on: April 17, 2019, 09:51:51 PM »
The last time I flight for private reasons was in 2006. For holidays it was in 2003 to Greenland. A great holiday.

30
Policy and solutions / Re: What type of transportation do you use?
« on: April 13, 2019, 10:19:51 PM »
I'm trying to use my bicycle as much as possible, but there are often reasons that make it impossible (like that the kids missed the schoolbus, or some shopping to do after work...). So with a single choice, I had to vote for a car with ICE. On non working days, I mainly use the car or walk, things are too close or too far for the bicycle. I'm living in a small village with almost no public transportation.

31
The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: April 13, 2019, 07:43:13 PM »
This is not true. The EU is not only about business, it is also about freedom and democraty. The aim is also to have peace on the continent (including UK of course).

32
The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: April 12, 2019, 10:29:54 PM »
So let's break down the options:

1) No deal Brexit:
Britain exits Europe with no strings attached. They fall back to WTO rules in the trade with other countries. You don't want that. You pay tariffs, there is a huge amount of administration involved, some goods can't be imported/exported at all.
London is (was) money capital. All sorts of financial institutions are located here. When there is no free flow of goods (and people), no one wants to do their banking in Britain anymore. The last big business on the island will leave. And they already started to do so.
Closed borders will probably mean there are not enough harvesting hands in the fall when they are needed.
I could go on, the list of negative implications is endless.

I think you overestimate the impact of a no deal. UK can keep it's side open (people and goods can enter as much as UK wants them), it's only the EU side that would be restrained, but only for goods and for people, not for finance.
UK makes many luxury goods, and here a few % more for the paper work won't make a big difference. What would be very hard is to switch the wroking process, but I can't imagine that the curent situation is ok for business.
For normal products, it would be more difficult to compete, but being out of the EU provides many subcontracting possibilities in low wages third countries. Here again, it is the change of process that is a major problem.
The ones that might really suffer are people integrated in a EU production configuration because it would require some kind of deal to be able to import from the EU, transform and export again to the EU a piece of a more complex system.

The other major problem is Ireland. Maybe it would be reunited faster than expected if a no deal would happen.

I really believe that the UK should stay in the EU, and I am scared that a no deal would transform the UK in some kind of tax free country, like some small Islands already are, but I believe that if Mrs May acts that way, it must be because there should be a majority for the leave.

33
The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: April 12, 2019, 08:29:55 PM »
Sometimes I wonder if a no deal or a remain wouldn't be better than a never ending Brexit.

34
Policy and solutions / Re: Concentrated Wealth and Carbon Emissions
« on: April 12, 2019, 07:22:01 AM »
The idea of working with cumulative GHG emission is a good pedagogy, but there are limits. I wouldn't use it for international regulations. You can't "punish" the kids for the mistakes of their parents. Being rich is sufficient to jusrify a bigger effort, doesn't matter if you got rich with petrol or with PV panels.

35
Policy and solutions / Re: Concentrated Wealth and Carbon Emissions
« on: April 11, 2019, 09:37:37 PM »

Let us take the US and India.

Nobody can say that India is a monumental mountain of wealth, it is, however, a mountain of people who are, in the most part, poor.

Since 1960, Indian CO2 emissions have grown nearly 570%.  The US, on the other hand, has grown by 3% over the same period.  Regardless of the mass of wealth or concentration of wealth or use of resources.

India is forecast to increase their emissions by more than 0.5% per year over the next decade, whereas the US is forecast to reduce slightly.

It is not the wealth you have which is the issue.  It is what you DO with that wealth.  The UK has reduced emissions by 58% over the same time period.  Germany about 40% or so, France only around 20%, Belgium nearly flat, the Netherlands has grown by nearly 90%.

The stats are here.

Well, India produces 1.7 tons CO2 per capita, and Luxembourg 17.4 (USA 16.5), so even if Luxembourg would make a great effort and reduce it by 40%, it still would be 6 times higher than India. Let's be fair. The stats are on the link you provided.

Luxembourg was at 36.7 in 1960. Could we say that we already did our part of the job ?

36
Policy and solutions / Re: Concentrated Wealth and Carbon Emissions
« on: April 11, 2019, 09:28:23 PM »
There are different steps in the developpment of countries. G7 countries are rather rich and have a high potential for savings just because of efficiency improvements. Each time that a fridge is replaced in the G7 countries, energy consumption goes down.

This is not true for poorer countries where people don't have an history of high energy consumption. In India, many new cars, new fridges... don't replace an old one, so even if they are very efficient, they don't bring consumption down.

For energy stats of the rich  countries:
https://sites.fas.harvard.edu/~histecon/energyhistory/energydata.html

Energy should always be considered per capita.

37
It looks a little bit like a "vote leave" t-shirt in the Brexit context.

38
Just for fun

39
Somehow the problem of BEV is the B, the battery. It is expensive and not fully socially/environmentally friendly. So if you oversize it, you get a price and a recycling issue, but if you don’t, people will not find the car attractive.

In an ICEV, the size of the gasoline tank is not a cost issue, just a space and safety issue. It’s a totally different way to see the car.

If we really want to switch to BEV, I believe that we also have to switch to the train for long distance travel, but here we have a problem of availability and costs. Train connections in Europe are not as good as they used to be 10 years ago, and it is not cheap compared to the marginal cost of e ICEV. BEV are part of a development block, and the block is not fully build yet, I would even say that all required technologies are not available yet - like the self driving car that will make taxis much cheaper and will help to make train travel more attractive again.

40
Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: March 31, 2019, 03:06:10 PM »
I went to a Solar convention last Friday. I have been very impressed by the work done by Issol http://www.issol.eu/ They produce active glass that can be use everywhere on buildings. Extra costs compared to traditionnal constructions would make ROI possible.

41
Greenland and Arctic Circle / Re: The Nares Strait thread
« on: March 24, 2019, 08:06:47 AM »
Hello,

Am I totally lost or is there a dramatic change since this topic has started (2013)? Looks like what is happening now used to be during the summer. We didn't even really start the melting season yet.

Thanks,

Etienne

42
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: March 24, 2019, 07:53:15 AM »
Many good ideas, thank you very much.

I get enough grass clippings during the spring for the 3rd alternative. In Luxembourg, you never know in advance if it will be a dry or a rainy summer. If you make averages on a few years, you get a perfect graph for farming, but real life is not an average.

43
Policy and solutions / Re: If not Capitalism... then What? And, How?
« on: March 23, 2019, 05:57:13 PM »
Ending climate change requires the end of capitalism. Have we got the stomach for it?
Quote
We will simply have to throw the kitchen sink at this. Policy tweaks such as a carbon tax won’t do it. We need to fundamentally re-evaluate our relationship to ownership, work and capital. The impact of a dramatic reconfiguration of the industrial economy require similarly large changes to the welfare state. Basic incomes, large-scale public works programmes, everything has to be on the table to ensure that the oncoming system shocks do not leave vast swathes of the global population starving and destitute. Perhaps even more fundamentally, we cannot continue to treat the welfare system as a tool for disciplining the supposedly idle underclasses. Our system must be reformed with a more humane view of worklessness, poverty and migration than we have now.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/18/ending-climate-change-end-capitalism

It would be cool if it would be so easy. Growth and consumption are the issues, but can capitalism be without both ? Which system can ?. The problem is that the only systems I heard of that were not based on growth and consumption are like middle age Europe or the US before Columbus. I think that systems like the Roman empire might have required growth to survive.

Technology also has that growth requirement, you can't just produce pans at the same rate for years without getting bankrupt. When the market goes down, like for some streets light bulbs, suppliers just stop the production because of some unknown constrain, who cares if we still need them, needed investments are too high for a decreasing market.


44
Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: March 23, 2019, 05:04:50 PM »
Hello,

My neighbour has been collecting grass clippings for years. In fact, he didn't want to bother taking it away. I am now allowed to use it, but am not sure how to handle this. It is not very well composted. I mixed it last week and it already helped a lot, some worms are now in it.

Is it a good idea to put it under a layer of earth, or to mix it with earth in the vegetables' garden ?

The amount is too important to put it with my normal compost.

Thanks, regards,

Etienne

45
Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: March 22, 2019, 09:39:13 PM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 21st, 2019:
     14,056,522 km2, an increase of 39,419 km2.
     2019 is 9th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted)

Just for fun, if you take today's data, the first in the row has a difference of -515,680. Now if you look at who has a difference of around +515,680 you come to the 16th position (+517,656).

If you look further and check which years are in these 16 positions, you get :
2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013 and 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004 and 1996.
2012 is not in the list.

46
Some politicians say here in Luxembourg that objectives have been set so high that they are not reachable. It would be a short term strategy to explain us that the government takes the matter seriously, and in the future it would be easy to explain that the objectives have been set so high that it was not reachable. So maybe we could say that Germany and eastern countries are more honest than the others.

47
Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« on: March 17, 2019, 11:12:07 AM »
I have also been wondering such things, also if melting starting more on the Chukchy or Barentsz would have an impact on the minimal extent, but I couldn't find anything clear.

I feel that extent is not a very good parameter when we are at the maximum or at the minimum because small changes in the % of ice in the sea can have a huge impact on final values. It's more the weather than the climate that is considered when values oscillate.

48
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: March 15, 2019, 07:04:08 PM »
The joke in the Luxembourgish situation is that since the government accepted that kids would leave school to go to the protest if they provided a written permission to the schools, they now know that there are quite many parents who find a Climate Change protest at least as good as a day in school, which probably means that these parents are not convinced of the Climate policies of the government.

And we have european elections in Mai.

49
Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: March 15, 2019, 05:21:15 PM »
Finally, the Luxembourgish walk for climate happend to be a great success. More than what was expected.

50
Thank you very much for all the links.

For the french speaking people, here is another one that is quite interesting :
https://energie.wallonie.be/fr/index.html?IDC=6018

I like very much the way Wallonia make their energy internet sites because they provide usefull tips.

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