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Messages - etienne

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Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 12, 2019, 10:37:10 PM »
Sometimes we also feel alone as adults. Feels like the game is over (climate change, limits of growth...) and the others keep playing, like my son who didn't understand that you can't continue a chess game when the king is lost. He clearly prefered the queen.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 11, 2019, 07:52:42 PM »
I looks to me that they also find it very difficult to look other people in the eye. Have you observed that in the young humans you parent?
I have never observed this, but we live in an area where most parents only provided a lumited screen time at least to kids under 10 years old, and this was a great help for our parental work.

What I have observed is that their friends come and leave without saying hello or goodbye to us parents, even if they stayed overnight, but I never thought it could be because they feel insecure.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 11, 2019, 06:55:40 AM »
I believe that as a teenager, I would have found that she had a lot of courage. Just like I would be happy that my parents would say the truth to a teacher. If this is seen as embarrassing, it probably means that they don't get support of peers when they try to get things right. One of the teachers really doesn't behave in an acceptable way, for example when one asks a stupid question, he could wonder if the teen's parents took drugs during pregnancy.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: November 10, 2019, 10:20:24 PM »
Weird youth these days. They find so many things embarrassing. I don't know what to think about it, but a high school teacher told us that the teens she teaches said that they found embarrassing that Greta almost cried when speaking at the UN, and how she said "how dare you". In another context, we had a meeting with a teacher and my son was always hitting my wife under the table because he found embarrassing what she was saying. A third context, my sons find both embarrassing when I speak a little bit louder in a shop to call them to come or because I want to show them something.  Looks like we have a new generation that is scared not to behave according to standard models.

I believe that deniers are now on stage 3. And I feel they arw quite efficient.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: November 09, 2019, 07:45:08 AM »
You were right about one thing though. The cow manure part is the worst, and it is bullshit.
This is a little bit out of topic, but I had the opportunity to visit a methanisation system with electricity generator close to my home and was very impressed. I believe that if you can chose without political pressure how you feed the system, you get clean renewable energy. Circuits are very short and pressure is very low, so leaks have a very low probability. The gas has to be compressed before going into the generator.

The thing is that it should not be considered as a way to manage thrash like politicians would like yo use it, but as an electricity production system.

Addendum: they also produce fertilizer for the fields and heat. During the summer and fall, heat is used to dry crops. Cows and pigs manure would be a better fertilizer after treatment in the methanization system.

Arctic sea ice / Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« on: November 09, 2019, 07:01:39 AM »
Gerontocrat, your graphs has gotten me thinking.  What if the open water in the peripheral seas is contributing to larger heat losses, resulting in faster refreeze of the CAB?  Widespread ice cover in the past may have kept more heat bottled up beneath the ice.
We have a value wirh 7 digits for the sea ice extent, but the daily change has only 5 digits, so change is only around 1% of absolut value. I am not sure that it means anything. To be considered in the extent, there must be around 15% of ice, so a fast freezing could just be a wide area that freezed a little bit more, just enough to be considered. You could also have an increase of the extent with a loss of area or a reduction of extent with a gain of area, depending if there is compaction or dispersion of the sea ice.

Addendum: this is why I like graphs like the yearly trailing average. That graph also provides information that is independent of seasonal conditions because 365 days are considered. I thank Gerontocrat for providing it.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 06, 2019, 10:29:52 PM »
I think that California allows self consumption of PV power without requiring any declaration. So reduced consumption could also mean transfer to self produced electricity.
Consumption reduction is normal these days because of efficiency gains in lightning.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: November 06, 2019, 10:14:27 PM »
Right now Wind and solar are Not it.  How, exactly, do we expect to charge all these new EV when our renewables are not delivering.?
Reducing consumption is the only way. Nuclear also can't solve our problems because it only provides baseload, risks and radioactive thrash. Smaller cars is the first step.

The price of public transportation, like the one of many things you can't live without (water, gasoline, electricity, bread...) is a political choice. It has nothing to do with real costs, or if it does, this is also a political choice.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 31, 2019, 09:24:59 AM »
 At home, I have a 40 Amps 3phases 230V breaker (120 Amps altogether), and behind that, I have 30 x 16 Amps + 4 x 10 Amps breakers, or 520 Amps. On the road, we probably have a similar ratio based on the fact that all houses don't use electricity together, and the fact that electical motors need much more power to start than to run. When loading EV, you use many Amps (typically 3x16 Amps) and if each house loads an EV at the same time, there is no way for the network to provide that power in addition to the usual needs.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: October 31, 2019, 09:10:53 AM »
It is not so easy. You can't multiply by 2 transport and production capacities whithout heavy investments. There is something called marginal cost which consider how much each extra production costs when no investment is required. That part of the production brings a lot of revenues and I guess they try to optimise that part of the incomes. A fast growth of EV without the smart grid technology installed could create major problems to the network.

Policy and solutions / Re: Electric cars
« on: October 31, 2019, 08:56:19 AM »
Also, none of them are big in China (unlike VW, BMW and Mercedes) - Fiat's JV in China is not doing that well. PSA is also in a much better place with EV products than FCA.

Dongfeng, a Chinese car company, is one of the 3 main shareholders of PSA.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: October 28, 2019, 09:41:28 PM »
I wonder how the Chinese system should be described. It is not liberalism, not fully capitalism, and not communist either, but I believe as materialist as we (EU and US) are. It is much more organised with some freedom in a limiting frame. Looks like a system with a coopted emperor. Right now it doesn't do better than others regarding climate change.

I wouldn't say that a philosophy won, maybe one is leader, but the real trend is overinflated ego and short terms thinking.

I recommend people to study the history of philosophy to understand the step by step proces which lead to this modern, materialistic age we live in. It doesn't matter if it's any of the three political materialistic philosophies that we adhere to, fascism, marxism or liberalism, they are all materialistic and thus it was inevitable that adopting any of them would eventually lead to the destruction and annihilation of our habitat. Some might be slower than others in this destructive proces, but alas, the most materialistic ideology won(liberalism) because it could generate the most material and thus defeat the other two ideologies(fascism/marxism) in this struggle to be the dominant political philosophy of this modern age.

The whole of modernity is the problem. There is unfortunately no solution other than mass culllling of population, which is not going to happen.

Walking the walk / Re: Can we/should we save the public school system ?
« on: October 23, 2019, 07:01:50 PM »
I am also interested to hear about the Finnish school system. On paper they have some good looking concept like reducing administrative work to get more teaching time.

Walking the walk / Re: Can we/should we save the public school system ?
« on: October 22, 2019, 10:36:19 PM »
Here is in German the requirements to graduate :

Same thing in English

Modification : in the German text is written that if you want to go to college after graduation, you should check what their requirements are in order to be accepted.

This means that this diploma doesn't provide a standard level accepted in most colleges like the hight school diploma used to be (it is not the case anymore, sometimes I feel I have growned up in another world) in most European countries.

Walking the walk / Re: Can we/should we save the public school system ?
« on: October 22, 2019, 10:33:09 PM »
Maybe. But I didn't found what kind of high school diploma kids get. Is it an US one ? Don't know if that would make sense in the EU.

I am also always scared of the systems where kids should discover what interesses them because I believe that we as adults have a responsibility to provide them the information they need to understand the world.

If the kids would have been better in french, I would have choosen the official program in home schooling. I mind more the context than the content.

Thanks for the Information. It's a good start.

Walking the walk / Re: Can we/should we save the public school system ?
« on: October 22, 2019, 08:30:06 PM »
I live in Luxembourg. We have since like 6 years a right oriented education minister and the impacts are not like I wish.

Walking the walk / Re: Can we/should we save the public school system ?
« on: October 22, 2019, 07:28:06 PM »

Just wondering if somebody is doing home schooling in German ? We might be interested because school is going out of control these days. It would help us if we would know where to find school programs and a system where kids can have some kind of high school diploma at the end. We are ready, but the kids not.



Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: October 18, 2019, 04:16:52 PM »
Well, he didn't convince me. I agree that the XR movement is getting out of control, but I belive that this is also due to a lack of action on the political side. I have often found that climate policies look like peak oil policies because they only try to reduce long term fossil fuel consumption and don't look at the easy things that could be done directly. In a peak oil context, a SUV is not an issue because you always have the possibility to take public transportation if gasoline becomes too expensive. I am also surprised that he finds that there aren't more disasters than before. The huricane statistics I have seen seem to be clear. Also regarding maximum temperature, India seems to become less viable, I feel that climate change is not just for the Poles.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: October 18, 2019, 06:39:19 AM »
If I look at the Luxembourgish context, the only action of the government that is not an investment in energy efficiency or renewables is an increase of 0,01 Eur of gasoline liter, and 0,02 Eur for diesel. Many people are very frustraded and this is always a dangerous situation. Why don't they reduce speed limits on the roads, why can"t they increase the cost of flying... Because the economy and growth have a higher priority than climate, so the government prefers to compensate CO2. They are lucky that most people here think like them, and it is also why they have been elected, but it could bring some people to act in some not too smart ways.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: October 17, 2019, 09:10:33 PM »
Greta retweeted an XR message against this morning action.

The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: October 17, 2019, 09:04:42 PM »
Maybe he is not a denier, but he minimises risks in a way that I can't agree with. His little ice age theory that would have happend because of trees in excess in the Americas also gives false hopes.
He is also wrong when he says that climates activists just want to be able to continue their oil consumption. Many make a real effort to reduce their carbon footprint.
I also believe that the very rich are rich because of our consumption, if we reduce our needs, it would reduce their incomes, so they have no interest in the degrowth concept.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: October 17, 2019, 07:42:56 PM »
 One of the problems of modern times socual movements is that they refuse a clear leadership. This is probably related to the social media dynamic, but could also be related to the complexity of the issues. Civil righrs, apartheid, national Independence are concepts where leaders might be easier to find than climate change or social inequality.
I believe that this action was an error, hope that it will not be repeated and that some XR members will also communicate that idea. Non violent action makes it impossible to separate the action and the aim.

Consequences / Re: Limits To Growth Predicts Collapse in 2015
« on: October 17, 2019, 06:21:16 AM »
Colapsology is an interesting science, when you look at what people see as causes for the colapse of the Roman Empire at different times in our history, you can find out what scared people most at that time.
I would use as starting point for our colapse in 2005 when petrol stopped to be cheap, but it could be in the 1970' when petrol availability per capita first went down, we are a fossil fuel civilisation.
I would say that the hyseresis comes from our optimization capability, experience and knowledge makes it possible to do more with less. The hysteresis the other way could come from the fact that we rely so much on technology and than we lost so many knowledges (like producing seeds) that are required for "normal" living.
Energy transition is a nice try to avoid collapsing, but I believe that degrowth is needed because there is no way to power all our "hobbies" with renewables, and furthermore energy is not the only issue that brings us to a collapse.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: October 15, 2019, 08:50:52 PM »
Report of last weekend's events by XR.

Maybe we will see in Tokio what is the easiest to restart and who has the most problems.

 Hydro is also renewable energy excepted for pumped hydro which is storage.

Well, each energy has its limits, and renewables are regarding resilience much better than fossil fuels.  No missiles on supply chain, no pipes freezing, no lack of cooling fluid, no major breakdown because it is mainly produced in "small" decentralized units.
There are many issues with renewable energy, but this really isn't one.

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 09, 2019, 07:26:14 PM »
The Guardian reports on a major study into oil and gas companies' CO2 emissions since 1965.
35percent emitted by 20 companies and their products.

And they knew about climate damage by CO2 from c. 1960-1965.
Well, if Chevron extracts the oil, and Facebook or Nike use it, who is the problem?

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: October 08, 2019, 09:41:27 PM »
I just read (Guardian) that the Brexit might be pushed back up to the summer. Maybe there is some hope to turn the BJ page without casualties.

Arctic sea ice / Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« on: October 07, 2019, 06:50:40 AM »
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.
I am convinced that we had normal melting conditions in 2019. That we only reached the second position because we started very low and because there was a lot of compaction at the end. The Greenland today page of nsidc also shows an average year. That's something I worry about. What would happen if 2012 conditions would happen again?

Policy and solutions / Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« on: October 07, 2019, 06:32:09 AM »
Looks like frakable shals are in many places, many countries talked about it or tried (UK, France, Poland...), but extraction seems to be limited to pilot projects. Regulations might make the difference, but geology also.

Walking the walk / Re: Heating with wood or pellets ? and air heat pump ?
« on: October 03, 2019, 05:45:48 PM »
Here is the study comparing the impact of black and brown carbon as aerosols.

The rest / Re: Peak Oil and Climate Change
« on: October 03, 2019, 01:13:52 PM »
I wouldn't be so negative about this blogger, but just that I didn't learn anything new. I feel that, I can be wrong, he still believes that peak oil could solve the climate change issue which unfortunately is wrong because there are enough others fossil fuels as alternative, and if needed we have so many forests to produce pellets. Sometimes I feel that we are like caterpilars or slugs on a plant. The ones who produce some of their vegetables know what I mean.

The rest / Re: Astronomical news
« on: September 30, 2019, 06:36:15 AM »
Irresponsible but difficult to avoid if you send humans on mars. Maybe it would be a good reason not to do it.

Policy and solutions / Re: Renewable Energy
« on: September 29, 2019, 08:34:46 PM »
The USA EIA updated its energy data - up to June 2019.

Here is a graph that shows monthly energy consumption from 2010 - when wind+solar started to get consumed in measurable quantities..

You can see coal reducing as well.

The sad thing is that solar+ wind growth in value is more or less the same than total growth of energy consumption.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 29, 2019, 10:43:19 AM »
Greta a climate debate tipping point?
I have never seen so many articles on climate change and associated topics, as I see now. She has certainly tipped the scales. Will it help? I certainly hope so, though the old and greedy people's inertia is very strong.
I'm worried that it might only support greenBAU, excepted if people would really start to reduce their consumption, but I don't feel that many people get the point.

"If you don't know how to fix it, please stop breaking it." That's from Severn Cullis Suzuki, 12 years old at the Earth Summit, 1992 in Rio. Thanks to Terry for giving the info.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: September 28, 2019, 05:16:44 PM »
What does climate neutrality mean?
Honestly, I would say that it is one of many concepts that have been defined to make greenBAU marketing possible. Anyway, there are many companies producing trendy products that are far from fair trade and ecological.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: September 28, 2019, 12:06:42 PM »
The problem I see in the XR actions (maybe I'm wrong), is that for a non violent campaign, the boycott strategy seems missing. I believe it is the only way to change companies is to buy only climate neutral products.

Maybe there are no substitute products that are climate neutral?
Well, even if climate neutrality is difficult to achieve, you still have many other possibility. Organic cotton exists, fairphones also. A boycott of selected product would create a huge pressure. A friend of mine who was on the streets yesterday is flying next week to Portugal.

Policy and solutions / Re: Extinction Rebellion
« on: September 27, 2019, 08:58:19 PM »
The problem I see in the XR actions (maybe I'm wrong), is that for a non violent campaign, the boycott strategy seems missing. I believe it is the only way to change companies is to buy only climate neutral products.

The rest / Re: Brexit...
« on: September 25, 2019, 09:12:36 PM »
There were many enough opportunities to just do it and deal with the details thereafter, but it did not happen and that only makes sense if they purposefully drive the Brexit-Vehicle against a wall.
I can't believe that May's only objective was to send the Brexit-vehicle in the wall. If this was the case, I guess she would have organized a 2nd referendum. I believe that she wanted to be in history books. Now we just have chaos.

Policy and solutions / Re: Greta Thunberg's Atlantic crossing
« on: September 25, 2019, 08:45:06 PM »
You know the people who really impress me? The adults who take off work and sacrifice eight hours wages for this cause, even more than the ones who are kids who get permission slips from their parents.
Well, I have enough overtime to get from time to time a free afternoon without having to go on the holidays account.

Policy and solutions / Re: Aviation
« on: September 23, 2019, 09:25:47 PM »
The venerable travel agency Thomas Cooks Tours went under this morning leaving ~300K tourists stranded around the world.

British tourists are covered by an insurance plan assuring that they will be returned to their homes, but these are only about 1/2 of the total number.

Brexit uncertainty is being blamed, heat waves that have kept tourists home have been blamed, no one has mentioned Piss Poor Management yet.
Well, these days you also have many airplane companies going bankrupt. I guess it's only the beginning. 2 in France, maybe one in Germany...

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: September 22, 2019, 05:49:08 PM »
You will find bellow a picture of a two years old hazel that recieved more or less 10 liters of water every 3 weeks this summer.
I used to plant such trees end of August if they are in a pot because we always had a lot of rain in september.

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: September 22, 2019, 08:14:09 AM »
This is a typical weather graph. It's going to rain in 2 days since quite a long time ago.

Walking the walk / Re: Gardening
« on: September 22, 2019, 08:06:20 AM »
This is a major worry, not the VPD as a concept, but the feeling I have that hedges for sure don't grow so much the last years, and new trees have problems to become big enough to reach to the ground water. We had at least 2 very dry years and the impact is terrible. It's nice to say that trees are the perfect machine to capture CO2, but it's not so easy to start it.

Walking the walk / Re: Heating with wood or pellets ? and air heat pump ?
« on: September 20, 2019, 09:11:20 PM »
What makes the difference with a wood or pellets stoves is heat on demand, or a very short time between starting the fire and enjoying heat. Infra red heaters also provide that possibility. So you can let the temperature go much lower when you leave your home.

Walking the walk / Re: Heating with wood or pellets ? and air heat pump ?
« on: September 20, 2019, 09:00:06 PM »
According to this Finnish study, log burning is not good for the climate. Pellet burning is far better. The best method of home heating is heat pumps powered by zero carbon electricity. Trouble is, heat pumps only work well in well insulated houses.

Thanks Simon, I've got a friend using the pellet system, he can probably summarize more of that. On this house it isn't an option. What could work is the ground heat pump, but the lowest floors should be ripped off for installation and the owners of those parts aren't going to approve. I guess some of them would rather let the house rot than to lose rent.
I believe that the study is not fair for woodburning. Most emissions come from sauna stove and open fire places. Looking at that study, my conclusion would be that investments in efficient systems is urgent. There was also a Goddard Institute study making the difference between black carbon (fossil fuels) and brown carbon (when burning biomas). Brown carbon was found to be less climate heating. I don't have the reference here but will try to find it.
Of course burning wood produces CO2 and, like I always say, using renewable energy doesn't allow you to waste it.

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